“Mid month checkpoint: Global temperature anomaly for 1-15 October according to the JRA-55 reanalysis is +0.84C above the 1991-2020 normal, similar to September.
“Spain and Portugal are the most above average countries nationwide, Libya the most below.”
“Will the Earth breach its 1.5C guardrail sooner than we thought?
“When the ‘godfather of climate science’ says the extraordinary heat during the northern summer points to accelerated warming, governments should listen… As the Guardian has reported, the average global temperature last month was what scientists described as a gobsmacking 1.7C or 1.8C above historic levels, and more than 0.5C above the previous hottest September on record.”
“Yesterday the global sea surface temperature anomaly hit a new record high of 0.702°C above the 1991-2020 mean, beating the previous record anomaly of 0.700°C set on September 9th. This is a ‘Code UFB’ event.”
“Gulf Stream weakening now 99% certain, and ramifications will be global.
“The flow of warm water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with grave implications for the world’s climate. The ocean current starts near Florida and threads a belt of warm water along the U.S. East Coast and Canada before crossing the Atlantic to Europe.”
“Scotland braces for up to ONE FOOT of rain: Storm Babet’s torrents inch north after causing flooding chaos in Ireland [picture from Cork] and sparking commuter hell in southern England.
“A near-record amount of precipitation is predicted to fall on areas of Perthshire and Aberdeenshire today and tomorrow as the low pressure system crawls its way north.”
“Storm [Hurricane Lee] sweeps dozens of North American landbirds to Britain [picture is of Canada Warbler; not seen until now on these shores]…
“The tragedy is those that were found here are just a tiny fraction of the total, the vast majority of which would have perished before they could make landfall… the bigger picture is that more extreme weather, including more frequent hurricanes, is very bad news for these birds’ long-term survival.”
“An excavator digging into Theodul glacier to prepare for early season ski races – shocking images in Zermatt. Is this the future of alpine skiing in the face of melting glaciers?
“The absolute wrong path, we need to see more climate action from this industry.”
“Ghana floods: ‘My entire farm is under the water and so is my house’.
“The 56-year-old farmer is one of thousands of victims of the floods in south-east Ghana. It’s a disaster she is struggling to come to terms with. They were taken unawares and couldn’t salvage anything, she tells me as beads of tears roll down her face.”
“Three people die, three missing after Eastern Cape lashed by torrential rain.
“One person died and three are missing after trying to cross rivers and a pregnant woman and her 11-year old son were crushed to death when their house collapsed as torrential rain and flash floods hit parts of the Eastern Cape on Monday.”
“Malawians endured the country’s hottest weekend on record, with temperatures reaching nearly 20C above the seasonal average.
“The heatwave began last Thursday with the government warning people to stay out of the sun, to keep hydrated, and avoid alcohol and caffeine. Some school buildings in the south of the country were evacuated…”
“Let’s see a couple of islands/archipelagos: MAURITIUS: 34.5C Agalega Island , It beats again the Mauritian record heat for October;CAPE VERDE 36.2C [97.2F] Mindelo hottest day in climatic history for any month.”
“Yemen, acknowledged by the news media far less than Libya and Morocco, offers one of the most prominent examples. Even as Yemen’s slow-burning civil war has disappeared from the news of the day, the parallel crisis of extreme weather continues to batter a country more often spotlighted for the spectre of famine.”
“Egypt approaching water scarcity line, Irrigation Minister warns [yes, that is a dead donkey in the drinking water].
“Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Hani Sewilam said that the per capita share of water in Egypt has declined, approaching water scarcity, with a large gap between resources and needs.”
“Tigris–Euphrates basin states must come together to address water crisis…
“The Baghdad protests drew attention to the delicate balance needed among nations that share water and the pressing need for cooperation in water management. Turkey’s and Iran’s dams on the Tigris and Euphrates have been contentious because they significantly alter flows downstream in Iraq.”
“Malaysia says landslide that killed 31 people last year was caused by heavy rain, not human activity.
““This heavy rain caused slope failures, which buried the camp sites … under soil, causing damage to property and loss of life,” he said. “The investigation found no strong evidence of anthropogenic activity as a contributing factor to this landslide.””
“More Da Nang floods evacuate 1,000 again [Vietnam]…
“People living in alleys off Me Suot and Hoang Van Thai Street in Da Nang’s Lieu Chieu District leave their homes for higher ground on Tuesday morning. Nearly 5,000 people in the area had been evacuated on Friday night after heavy rains caused waters to rise to up to 1.5 meters.”
“JAVA: 38.4C [101.1F] Curug monthly record tied; 37.2C Jakarta Tanjung Priok monthly record; SULAWESI: 38.0C Tanjung Karang; SUMATRA: 37.0C Palembang all time high tied; BORNEO: 37.0C Palangaraya all time high.”
“‘Dark, chaotic, scary events’: Australia braces for a ‘horror’ wildfire season.
““Be prepared for a horror summer,” warned Chris Minns, premier of New South Wales. “We are going into October and we’re experiencing mid-summer conditions, multiple days above 30 degrees, high winds. Bushfires love this environment.””
“Global insurers say Australia is running out of time to reduce its vulnerability to the climate crisis and faces higher premiums for households and businesses.
““They said, ‘you’ve got five years basically’,” said the federal assistant treasurer, Stephen Jones, who led a delegation last month to insurance centres in London and Munich.”
“Peruvians Can’t Afford Their National Dish Ceviche After El Nino Devastates Farms.
“Heavy rains have devastated local lime crops, sending prices up by almost 70% just in August. Since lime juice is a key ingredient in Peruvian cuisine, that created a national furor and forced the finance minister to call for calm.”
“Not a single passes without heat records in Bolivia and today wasn’t the exception:
“40.4C [104.7F] San Joaquin hottest day in climatic history; 39.6C Magdalena; hottest October day… More heat is expected all the week. This record heat has been ongoing for months in the whole country.”
“South America heat Wave: After their hottest days in history, the PARAGUAY cities of Asuncion (city center) and San Pedro had their hottest nights: Tmin 30.0C [86F] for both.
“And what about FRENCH GUIANA? Did it take a break from heat records? Never! 37C St Georges all time high tied.”
“Drought turns Amazonian capital into climate dystopia.
“So many fires are burning in the surrounding tinder-dry forest that air-quality monitors last week registered 387 micrograms of pollution a cubic metre, compared with 122 in Brazil’s economic capital of São Paulo. The only city in the world that measured worse was an industrial centre of Thailand.”
“September 2023 in Mexico had an average temperature of 26.4C,+2.6C vs 1991-2020 norm and was the HOTTEST ON RECORD.
“Hundreds of records were broken allover the country… Last months in Mexico were insane: Hottest June; Hottest July; Hottest August; Hottest summer; Hottest September.”
“After rainy season that wasn’t, parched Mexico City starts restricting water.
“Mexico’s rainy season is just about over, and its departure will end any realistic hope of refilling the reservoirs before next year. The Mexican National Water Commission on Tuesday announced water restrictions equivalent to about 8% of the Cutzamala system’s flow, and millions of users in Mexico City and Toluca fear even greater restrictions over the winter.”
“As Ogallala Aquifer Declines in the Great Plains, States Weigh Metering Irrigation Wells.
“About A Quarter Of The United States’ Irrigated Cropland Sits On Top Of The Ogallala Aquifer In The Great Plains. But Water Levels Are Dropping, And States Are Taking Different Approaches To Monitoring How Much Groundwater Irrigators Are Pumping Out.”
“Canada’s astonishing and record fire season finally slows down…
“While winter brings a reprieve, Alberta Wildfire warns that some of the largest blazes may crackle underground through the cold season. Some scientists refer to these as “zombie fires.” …Prospects of an intense El Nino this winter may also mean more unusually warm conditions are ahead.”
“Wild animals are forgotten disaster victims—why should we care?
“Wildlife are killed, injured, and displaced by disasters. Even if they survive the initial disaster, their habitat and food sources are destroyed. Water becomes polluted. They’re at risk of developing life-threatening diseases. They’re forced to leave their habitats…”
“Global uptick in cholera cases raises alarm after decades of progress.
“Climate change… exacerbates the conditions through which cholera develops and spreads. Extreme weather events may destroy sanitation facilities, spread infected sewage into water sources, displace infected or at-risk populations, and contaminate seafood.”
“Climate change blamed for ‘concerning’ rise of flesh-eating infections…
“Vibrio vulnificus bloodstream infections are fatal in around 50 per cent of cases and treatment can include amputations, sometimes within days of infection. It is one of the few bacteria that can cause flesh-eating infections, destroying skin, muscles, nerves, fat and blood vessels.”
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
“The size of the global sea ice departure (i.e., amount of missing ice compared to 1981-2010) has just reached the largest anomaly in our satellite record…
More figures at https://zacklabe . com/global-sea-ice-extent-conc/….
“Global ocean and particularly N. Atlantic sea surface temperature Anomalies are remarkably high.
“This is not because the seas are heating up, but rather because they are not cooling DOWN to normal late fall temperatures. Weather outcomes can be expected.”
“Coral Crisis: Massive Accumulation of Heat Stress in Summer 2023.
“In 2023, rising sea temperatures, amplified by human activities and El Niño, threatened coral reefs, especially around Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Satellite data indicated high risks of coral bleaching and mortality in these regions by mid-October.”
“Norwegian Archaeologists Are Salvaging Priceless Artifacts From Melting Glaciers—Before It’s Too Late.
“…ice is an excellent preservative, but artifacts deteriorate rapidly once exposed to the elements. And the region’s ice is retreating fast. As one of the team’s archaeologists Lars Holger Pilø tells it, the group first started rescuing artefacts in 2006 following an unusually long and warm autumn. Now, such temperatures are hardly anomalous.”
“It has been very warm for many days for mid-Oct. (record levels) in western Nunavut [Arctic Canada].
“13.6°C [56.5F] Ennadai Lake (7 Tx > 10°C); 12.1°C Bathurst Inlet (3 Tx > 10°C); 12.0°C Arviat (3 Tx > 11°C); 11.2°C Baker Lake (3 Tx > 10°C)… No frost in Cambridge Bay where the normal Tmin is -15°C!”
“‘No normal seasons any more’: seed farmers struggle amid the climate crisis [US].
“Floods, freezes and heatwaves threaten seed production as farmers scramble to produce strains that resist climate chaos. Once upon a not-so-distant time, the growing season for the Ann Arbor, Michigan-based Green Things Farm Collective followed a steadfast trajectory.”
“A rural Iowa town is the driest it has ever been. Its running low on water…
“Belle Plaine is scraping the bottom of its water reserves. It launched a water restriction July 27. Its four shallow wells are producing only 20 percent of their normal capacity, and the 2,300-some residents are now reliant on the town’s deep emergency well, laden with minerals.”
“Arizona’s record heat takes a toll on butterfly migrations…
“The National Weather Service reported a record 31 straight days of temperatures of 110 degrees or higher in 2023 in Phoenix. The heat took a toll on humans and other species they share the environment with, including butterflies.”
“Tucson’s official high Monday was 100 degrees, which ties for the latest calendar date with a triple-digit high on record for a year, matching Oct. 16, 1991 and 2020…
“The metro area is in for a week of near-record heat, the National Weather Service says.”
“The worst saltwater intrusion into the Mississippi River in decades is threatening to contaminate New Orleans’s major water supply. If the emergency measures currently being implemented do not succeed, this could leave nearly a million people searching for alternative sources of drinking water…”
“Wildfires are dealing a massive blow to US real estate and homeownership, congressional report finds.
“Climate change-fueled wildfires are costing the US economy between $394 billion to $893 billion annually, a new congressional report suggests – a shocking figure that is more than double what previous government reports have estimated.”
“September 2023 in Barbados was exceptionally warm and dry
“The country broke every record: 35.6C [96.1F] Highest temperature in country history; Up to 30C Minimum temperatures; 34.2C all time record in Grantley Adams Int. Airport. Rainfall at Charnocks was only 40.1mm (average 162.6mm).”
“Unbelievable FRENCH GUIANA: Hottest day on record again! 39.1C [102.F] today at Grand Santi.
“All time highs also in other stations including 38.9C at St Laurent; More records in the Caribbeans: Roatan Island (Honduras) Tmin 29.4 Tmax 35; San Andres Island (Colombia) Tmin 28.9 Tmax 34.8.”
“The water level at a major river port [Manaus] in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest has hit its lowest point in at least 121 years [ie on record], as a historic drought upends the lives of hundreds of thousands of people and damages the jungle ecosystem.
“Rapidly drying tributaries to the mighty Amazon river have left boats stranded, cutting off food and water supplies to remote jungle village…”
“Forest fires threaten to overwhelm the Amazon basin…
“The letter [published by a group of scientists in published in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution] notes: “The consequences of inaction on Amazon wildfires and inattention to the types and drivers of fires are severe and must be avoided. These include considerable carbon emissions from forest-burning and a weakening of one of the world’s most critical carbon sinks.””
46.5°C [115.7F] Villamontes, Bolivia – 0.2°C from the all-time national record and 0.8°C from the all-time record for South America! 45.3°C Argentina; 44.8°C Paraguay, 0.2°C from the Oct. national record; 43.0°C Asuncion (all-time record).”
“The Bolivian government reported Monday that 200,871 families have been affected by the drought ravaging several departments, some of which have declared a state of disaster or emergency.
“The vice minister of civil defense, Juan Carlos Calvimontes, said that Oruro has declared a state of “disaster,” while the regions of La Paz, Cochabamba, and Chuquisaca have declared a state of “emergency.””
“Climate-induced largescale browning in Chilean Mediterranean forest.
“We assessed climatic and productivity trends across the world’s five Mediterranean forest ecosystems and detected large-scale, abrupt forest browning in Chile. Extreme dry and warm conditions in Chile, unprecedented in the recent history of all Mediterranean-type ecosystems, are projected to arise in the second half of this century.”
“Man dies and homes feared lost in bushfire near Kempsey as almost 80 fires burn across NSW…
“Park urged NSW residents to be prepared for a “very difficult summer period”. “What we’re facing is very hot, dry [and] potentially very windy conditions, and that means that people need to take some responsibility in ensuring they have a plan to exit and get away,” he said. “That’s the responsibility for all of us.””
“Brutal heat wave in Western Australia, historic October records have been shattered with huge margins:
“43.9C [111F] Carnarvon it’s even above its November record; 41.3C Gerladton; 36.4C Rottnest Island; More South Perth Airport 36.9C and Perth Centre 36.5C close to their records.”
“Today up to 39C [102.2F] in Java (39.0C Jatiwangi) and 38C in Sulawesi (38.0C at Palu); Also 37.4C Serang tied its hottest day in history; 37.4C Curug tied its hottest October day; Next few days Jatiwangi will attack the all time national heat record.”
“Southeast Asia haze returns as peatland fires fan global warming fears.
“At a time when climate change is presenting an existential threat to human beings, the fear is that these seasonal haze situations will worsen as intensifying global warming renders the peatlands and forests even more combustible in the dry season. Southeast Asia is home to about 40% of the world’s total peatlands…”
“Today 37.0C [98.6F] at Mae Sariang in the North (0.1C from monthly record), October heat record in the Gulf with 35.6C at Koh Sichang. Minimum temperatures up to 28.6C at Bangkok, a record for October with dew points up to 29C.”
“Devastating Floods Hit War-Torn Kayah State, Displacing Thousands [Myanmar].
“At least 10,000 people, including internally displaced persons (IDPs), have been lost homes or crops due to devastating flooding in Kayah state’s Loikaw and southern Shan state’s Moebye townships, local residents and aid groups reported on Monday.”
“The strong winds accompanying the storm created a dense shroud of dust, reducing visibility and deteriorating air quality. Sandstorms, like the one experienced in Azraq can have far reaching consequences both for public health and regional infrastructure.”
“Paris at 50°C: City prepares for extreme heatwaves of the future.
“The year is 2032 and Paris has been hit by a heatwave that has seen temperatures peak at over 50°C for ten days in a row: That was the scenario of a crisis simulation exercise carried out in the French capital on Friday, October 13, that aimed to help prepare the city…”
“…as fires intensify, they are beginning to outstrip nature’s ability to bounce back. “Not all fires have the same impact,” said Morgan Tingley, an ecologist at the University of California, Los Angeles. “These megafires are not good for ecosystems.””
“Revealed: World’s CO2 emissions set to rise by about 1 per cent to new record in 2023…
“The estimate has alarmed scientists because the amount of carbon dioxide pumped into the atmosphere needs to fall quickly and sharply if the planet is to have any hope of avoiding runaway climate change, they say.”
“Methane levels are rising – could it be nature’s response to warming?
“…The gas comes from three different sources. One-third is from industries like oil and gas. One-third is from agriculture and waste, and one-third comes from nature. Which one is responsible for the recent rise in methane? Experts say we need more information on what’s happening in nature.”
“Climate change is the catastrophe to end all other catastrophes…
“I’d rather not write about the climate emergency. I am, or was, primarily a fiction writer, and I’d love to get back to working on novels… Yet I increasingly find myself unable to talk about anything other than the failure of our institutions to face up to the climate breakdown.”
“That’s right. Our entire global industrial civilization is going to collapse. And soon, which means within the lifetimes of most people alive today… In this article, I will list 10 problems the world is facing, each of which could cause the collapse of civilization all on its own.”
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
“Add Inflation to Reasons to Worry About Climate Change…
“…the reality is that climate change and inflation are increasingly, inextricably linked. A hotter planet makes droughts, floods, heat waves and destructive storms more likely and more intense. Rainfall patterns change and diseases roam more widely. All of this in turn disrupts agriculture, construction, shipping, manufacturing and more.”
“‘Nothing’s predictable’: Extreme weather is ruining farmers’ crops, and their finances…
“More frequent floods and droughts can wipe out months of work overnight. Rising temperatures are expected to slow plant growth in the Northern Hemisphere within the next decade, while higher carbon dioxide levels reduce the nutritional value of fruits and vegetables. Altogether, a recent NASA study found that some yields could decrease 24 percent by as soon as 2030.”
“According to a study led by UCL and the Natural History Museum, tropical crops, including coffee, cocoa, watermelon, and mango, face a precarious future due to declining insect pollinators.
“This research uncovers the complex interplay between climate change, land use, and their impact on pollinator biodiversity, raising alarming concerns for global crop pollination.”
“Wars, Trade Bans and Climate Change Turn Food Into Politics…
“Food is just one of a long list of electoral issues, but it has global repercussions. The politics threaten to impact global trade, prices and the economies of import-dependent nations. Erratic weather, meanwhile, has ravaged agricultural land from the US to China, and the phenomenon known as El Niño is back, risking further damage to crops.”
“A sudden spike in global warmth is so extreme, it’s mysterious…
“A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration analysis released Friday further cemented what several other data sets had already affirmed: September was not just the globe’s warmest on record, but its most atypically warm month in nearly two centuries of observations. It was 0.83 degrees above the old record for the month, a staggering departure from what was already extreme.”
“With the huge September data in, we can confirm that we expect 2023 to be the warmest year in the record (99% probability).”[NASA climate scientist, Gavin Schmidt].
“…if this El Nino peak is as high as we project it will be… The 1.5°C global warming level will have been reached, for all practical purposes.
“There will be no need to ruminate for 20 years about whether the 1.5°C level has been reached, as IPCC proposes. On the contrary, Earth’s enormous energy imbalance assures that global temperature will be rising still higher for the foreseeable future.”[James Hansen]
“El Niño is going to continue through spring 2024, forecasters predict.
“Forecasters say there could be months still to go before the culmination of El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by higher sea surface temperatures and precipitation across the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can affect weather across the globe.”
“Record North Atlantic heat sees phytoplankton decline, fish shift to Arctic.
“The verdict is in: Global sea temperatures shattered new heat records in 2023, with anomalous warmth erupting in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean in a year that also saw numerous record-setting extreme terrestrial heat waves, droughts, floods and wildfires on five continents.”
“The once deep and coursing waters of the Doubs river in eastern France have shrunken to a dry bed that locals can cross almost without getting their feet wet. A confluence of nearly no rainfall and existing geological features are draining the river to the point that boats and docks rest on the dry rocks that used to be underwater.”
“Historic in GERMANY – 30.1C [86F] at Mullheim and Rheinfelden,the latest 30C in Germany history.
“Many records were broken including 28.2C at Munich,see list of the most important: Records also in CZECH REPUBLIC: 27.9C Kuchařovice; 26.5C Dukovany; 28.2C in SLOVAKIA: Record for half October.”
“September was already not very autumnal, reaching a temperature of 14.2 degrees nationwide. That is 3.8 degrees more than in the comparable period from 1991 to 2020, clearly surpassing the previous record of 13.3 degrees in September 1961.”
“27.8C [82F] in the Gran Canaria Airport broke again the highest min. temperature for October in the station, nearly 2C higher than the previous record. Madeira Island is also breaking records of warm nights and days with more heat to come.”
“Teams tackling Madeira wildfires reinforced as missing tourists found…
“Fires are sweeping across areas of two neighbouring municipalities on the west coast, Calheta and Porto Moniz, burning in hard-to-reach areas amid unseasonably high temperatures expected to top 30 degrees Celsius (86°F) on Friday.”
“Malawians have been warned of an extreme heatwave that could see temperatures rise up to 44C [111.2F].
“People have been urged to avoid alcohol and caffeine as the drinks could cause dehydration… Malawi is still recovering from a devastating tropical storm in March that killed more than 500 people.”
“Record-Breaking October Heatwave Sweeps Delhi and Mumbai.
“In this episode of Daily Mirror with Nivedhana, we will be discussing October heatwave, with both Delhi and Mumbai experiencing record-high temperatures. Delhi’s temperature recently surged to 35 degrees Celsius [95F] with clear skies, and a notable absence of rain.”
“After three days of no power this April, the people of Kasia Bagan had had enough. Temperatures were reaching record highs, with no AC to help. Yet down the main lane of the neighborhood, the Quest Mall towered, humming with electrical power.”
“Hong Kong’s hottest summer fell hardest on most vulnerable. [photo-essay].
“Joe Wong sweats through his days as a cleaner in a Hong Kong housing complex, laboring in narrow, stuffy corridors that this summer and last were the worst he’s known. He finds what relief he can in a resting area where a fan offers a breeze and a refrigerator holds the cool water he drinks — 7 1/2 liters a day — to ward off heatstroke.”
“A bushfire spanning tens of thousands of hectares in rugged, inaccessible country has closed a central Queensland national park for a further two weeks.
“Carnarvon Gorge, inside Carnarvon National Park, initially closed on October 7 after a bushfire burning since September 26 spread. Bruce Higham, senior ranger for Southern Downs in Toowoomba, said the fire had burned through more than 31,000 hectares…”
“Fish kills loom as Mary River faces one of driest years on record.
“After water levels reached record heights last year, Queensland’s Mary River is now facing one of the driest years on record, with researchers warning of fish kills.”
“Peru’s melting glaciers bring new harvests – and fears for the future.
“Peru has lost more than half of its glaciers as a result of melting over the past 50 years, according to research by the National Water Authority, and it is projected that all of the snow on the top of the mountain range could disappear by 2111.”
“Deforestation in Bolivia has jumped by 32% in a year. What is going on?
“…Bolivia’s deforestation has long flown under the radar. That changed when Bolivia reportedly blocked a pledge to end deforestation by 2030 at the Amazon summit in August. But a closer look at the forces driving it leads to an unsettling conclusion: everything points to more, not less, deforestation to come.”
“Thick smoke has enveloped extensive areas of the Brazilian Amazon on Thursday as the region grapples with a surge in wildfires and a historic drought.
“In Manaus, a city of 2 million, air quality ranked among the worst globally, leading to the suspension of college classes and the cancellation of various activities, including an international marathon.”
“Food is scarce in Guatemalan village at climate change frontier…
“Usually the rainy season begins in May or June, but there wasn‘t much this year, she said. “There has been a lot of drought in recent years,” Maria, who speaks the Mayan language Achi, said through a translator one day in August.”
“JUST IN CASE you are missing the big picture. Other “small” pictures of this unprecedented insane heat wave:
“Hundreds of records are being shattered – Belize and Honduras just had their hottest October day in history. 88F of dew points in the Mexican-Belize border etc.”
“Heatwave hits Mérida [Yucatan, Mexico] in October with a thermal sensation of 58.3°C (136.9°F).
“On Monday, June 12, during spring, it reached 55.6°C. On July 14, in the summer, it reached 57.2°C, and on Thursday, October 12, in the middle of autumn, it reached 58.3°C. It was just 1.7 degrees short of baking the people of Mérida at 60 degrees. Summer ended on September 22, and the warm season supposedly concluded on Saturday, October 7…”
“HISTORIC CARIBBEAN HEAT WAVE – Most extreme heat wave in Caribbean history, especially for the HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES (for October and many for any month).
“BELIZE 30.6C [87.1F] hottest night in Caribbean history; CUBA [Playa Giron] 29.3C; BAHAMAS [Freeport] 29.2C; CAYMAN IS. 29.1C.”
“Miami sweats to warmest October night on record amid another South Florida heat wave.
“South Florida has sweat to yet another heat record in a summer – and now autumn – full of them. Miami’s temperature only dropped to a low 84 degrees Friday morning, making it the warmest October night since records have been kept in 1938.”
“Florida tornadoes damage homes, businesses and cars on both coasts…
“Damage, including downed power lines, was also reported near the coast in Dunedin, north of Clearwater Beach, town officials said. Video posted to social media by the city showed walls and roofs missing from buildings and windows blown out of businesses.”
“No shade, no water, and record heat: More migrants die in U.S. desert.
“As weather extremes are expected to worsen due to climate change, these journeys will likely only become riskier… Heat-related deaths accounted for just under half the total migrant death toll in the El Paso Sector over the last 12 months.”
“Flooding that closed Alaska’s Dalton Highway also caused widespread ground sinking.
“The massive 2015 flooding of the Sagavanirktok River in northern Alaska had immediate impacts, including closure of the Dalton Highway for several days, but it also contributed to longer-term ground subsidence in the permafrost-rich region.”
“Scientists track ‘alarming’ melt in Antarctic ice shelves.
“Around 40% of Antarctica’s ice shelves have significantly shrunk over the last 25 years, scientists said on Thursday, in findings the European Space Agency said were “alarming”. Scientists said the losses went beyond the ice shelves’ normal fluctuations and added to evidence of how human-caused climate change is affecting Antarctica.”
“Global water cycles are ‘spinning out of balance’, weather agency reports.
“The world will experience an “increasingly erratic” water cycle as climate change drives new patterns of both extreme flooding and drought across the globe, the World Meteorological Organization has forecast. The agency said hydrological cycles were “spinning out of balance”…”
“Emerging tree diseases are on the rise, threatening the planet’s largest plants…
“”One of the surprising findings from this work was the rapid pace of accumulation, with the number of new emerging diseases doubling every approximately 11 years,” Gougherty told CBC. Tod Ramsfield, a forest pathologist and research scientist with Natural Resources Canada… said climate change is having major impacts on tree health and helping fuel the rise of deadly diseases.”
“Endless War on a Dying Planet – the dual tragedies of war and ecological collapse in Israel and Palestine…
““Everyone here is busy with fighting over the land,” Shaheen told Haaretz. “But in another minute, we won’t have land to fight over. It’s insane, in my opinion. The house is burning and people are fighting over who will enter it first. Wake up, God damn it!””
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
“The insurance world is flirting with its climate doom loop…
“The unpredictable path of climate change is a particular problem for insurers that cling to historical data like a comfort blanket. As the Bank of England puts it, “Historic data sets are not likely to be a good predictor of how climate risks may affect firms’ future losses.” Insured losses for natural catastrophes were 54 per cent above their 10-year average in the first half of 2023, according to Swiss Re…
“The implications of uninsurability have caught the attention of financial regulators, who previously viewed climate losses in the financial sector as the key issue for stability.”
“Global economic losses from extreme weather could hit $5 trillion, Lloyd’s says.
“Global economic losses could reach $5 trillion under a “plausible increase” in extreme weather events linked to climate change that cause crop failures and food and water shortages, insurance marketplace Lloyd’s of London said on Wednesday.”
“Use of weather derivatives surges as extreme climate events rock the globe.
“Energy companies, hedge funds and commodity traders are stepping up their use of financial products that let them bet on the weather, as they seek to protect themselves against – or profit from – the increasingly extreme global climate.”
“October is coming along swimmingly, we’ll see if the next few days bring all-time record global temperature anomalies[image is of global surface temp anomaly].
“Even temporary global warming above 2°C will affect life in the oceans for centuries.
“Our newly published research investigates the implications of a climate overshoot for the oceans. Across all climate overshoot experiments and all models, our analysis found associated changes in water temperatures and oxygen levels will decrease viable ocean habitats. The decrease was observed for centuries.”
“A new study revealed that 56% of the global sea surface has changed color in the past 20 years. Data from NASA’s MODIS instrument showed that much of the change is from the ocean turning more green.”
“After a brief rebound in 2020, the oldest ice floating in the Arctic Sea appears to have resumed its melt toward oblivion, according to data released this week by the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado Boulder.”
“Researchers have confirmed that salmon are spawning in an Arctic Ocean watershed, suggesting that at least some salmon species could be expanding to new territory as climate change reshapes their habitat.”
“Humpback whales increasingly sighted in Arctic Alaska waters better known as bowhead territory.
“A study, which points to climate change as a possible factor pushing humpbacks north, shows results that are both ‘fascinating’ and ‘a little terrifying,’ one author says.”
“New, fast-growing wildfire threatens more than 2 dozen properties in northeastern B.C.
“The Mount Wartenbe wildfire is already considered a wildfire of note by the B.C. Wildfire Service, meaning it’s highly visible or a potential threat to public safety. It’s burning near Lone Prairie, about 20 kilometres southeast of Chetwynd and 80 kilometres southwest of Fort St. John.”
“Another Billion-Dollar Disaster Added To 2023’s Record-Breaking List [US].
“A monthly update issued Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration cited heat and drought in parts of the South and Midwest as the latest U.S. weather or climate disaster to have damage estimated at more than $1 billion.”
“A storm in New Mexico created an incredible scene Monday, with drivers navigating “rivers of hail.”
“KRQE News 13 chief meteorologist Grant Tosterud shared a video on X, formerly known as Twitter, from Dorothea Delgado that showed debris covering a road and a small river full of hail running alongside it.”
“Painful Dengue May ‘Take Off’ In United States—What To Know About The ‘Breakbone Fever’ Virus.
“The World Health Organization’s chief scientist Jeremy Farrar has warned dengue fever could soon “take off” and become a constant presence in the United States, one of many emerging health threats driven by the climate crisis…”
“Cat 4 Lidia is Mexico’s 3rd-strongest landfalling Pacific hurricane on record.
“After a phenomenal burst of rapid intensification on Tuesday, Hurricane Lidia made landfall at 7:50 p.m. EDT Tuesday, October 10, as a dangerous Category 4 storm with top sustained winds of 140 mph and a central pressure of 942 mb.”
“Filadelfia PARAGUAY Extremes TMIN 31.2 TMAX 44.7… HIGHEST OCTOBER MIN. TEMPERATURE IN SOUTH AMERICAN HISTORY; BOLIVIA ALL TIME RECORDS: 40.5 Trinidad; 25.5 Potosi AP 3935m; ARGENTINA 27.5 La Quiaca 3459m monthly record.”
“Climate change drove deadly winter heat wave in South America, study says.
“Global warming was the main driver of the heat wave that scorched South America for most of August and September and raised temperatures by as much as 4.3 degrees Celsius, according to a study published on Tuesday.”
“Ferocious wildfires surrounded a resort city in Argentina overnight, forcing the mass evacuation of hundreds of families during an intense heatwave.
“Alarming footage shows a wall of flames tearing towards the resort city of Villa Carlos Paz, with a population of 56,000, in the Punilla Valley of the central Cordoba province as temperatures reached 35C.”
“Indigenous Amazonians urge Brazil to declare emergency over severe drought…
“The drought and heatwave has killed masses of fish in the rivers that Indigenous people live off and the water in the muddy streams and tributaries of the Amazon river has become undrinkable, the umbrella organization Apiam that represents 63 tribes in the Amazon said on Tuesday.”
“Record average September temperatures stretched from the southern part of Finland into Central Lapland, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)’s most recent data shows.
“Northern Lapland also experienced temperatures the FMI characterized as “exceptionally high” in a statement.”
“Summer temperatures return to Germany with highs of 27C [80.6F]…
“A new study by Germany’s Institute for Ecological Economic Research has revealed that at the current rate of policy development, extreme weather caused by climate change could cost the federal republic as much as 900 billion euros in cumulative economic damage by 2050.”
“Rhine rates jump as demand ‘shoots up’, water levels drop.
“Freight rates to ship barges along the Rhine River soared this week to hit two-month highs as demand picked up after weeks of sluggish appetite while water levels near dangerously low levels.”
“Extreme heat wave in the area known as Macaronesia: Canary Islands keep rising >38C every day
“MADEIRA: Extraordinary Territorial October record yesterday with 36.4C [100.4F] at Sao Vicente. Hot days and nights for days, it would be rare in mid summer. Persistent heat also in Cape Verde.”
“Canary Islands schools close and wildfire revives in soaring temperatures.
“Authorities on the Canary Islands have ordered the temporary closure of schools due to scorching temperatures on the archipelago that have set records and helped revive a huge wildfire on Tenerife… Local media said there had been several cases of students fainting or suffering heatstroke in recent days in the Canaries.”
“Kenya’s Lake Victoria floods leave orphaned children to run their households.
“Beginning in 2019, devastating floods on the shores of Kenya’s Lake Victoria have inundated homes, displaced families and left some orphaned children in charge of caring for their siblings and running the household. Many families continue to live in makeshift camps…”
“With [South Africa’s] water resources fast drying up, more municipalities are resorting to boreholes to mitigate water shortages.
“Amajuba District Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal has announced plans to revive the borehole system in all of its three local municipalities. Provision of water is a core responsibility of district municipalities.”
“Climate Change Threatens Himalayan Glaciers: A Time Bomb for Water Supplies…
“A recent study has unveiled a chilling forecast of the disappearance of two-thirds of the region’s glaciers by 2100, a dire consequence of the warming planet. This unfolding climate catastrophe in the Himalayas has potentially far-reaching implications…”
“India Set to Restrict Sugar Exports in Threat to Global Supply.
“India is expected to impose restrictions on its sugar exports after dry weather parched cane crops in the world’s second-biggest grower, a move that will tighten global supplies of the sweetener. The South Asian nation is likely to curb shipments during the new season that started Oct. 1…”
“Very hot in Western Australia including nightime.
“Today the Min. temperature at Bidyadanga was 30.5C [86.9F] which is one of the highest Min. temperatures ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere this time of the year. The heat will just get worse.”
“Soil moisture at record low in Northern Rivers as intense drought spreads in NSW.
“The number of parishes in the Clarence Valley experiencing intense drought has tripled in the last week, from 10 to 31… The Bureau of Meterology says some rain is expected later in the year. In the Richmond Valley, the number has risen from 8 to 13 parishes, with the extreme conditions also extending into North Codrington…”
“It’s getting harder to grow coffee, tea, and grapes for wine on a hotter planet — and now researchers say, climate change may be coming for your IPA. A new study out Tuesday found drought and higher temperatures will lead to a decrease in the quality and quantity of hops…”
“Impacts of climate change threaten children’s mental health starting before birth.
“Climate change poses a particular threat to children and youth, starting before birth and potentially derailing the normal development of physiological systems, cognitive abilities and emotional skills in ways that are sometimes irreversible, according to a report…”
“Massive prehistoric solar storm is warning for Earth, researchers say.
“… the Carrington Event has long been thought of as the benchmark for the most intense geomagnetic storm observed on Earth, sending northern lights displays as far south as Florida and Central America and knocking out communication systems. But now, new research has unveiled evidence of a much larger solar storm that could reset record books.”
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
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“It is clear that the anomalously high global temperatures of the past four months (above the global warming trend) can’t be explained by El Niño, if we take past El Niño events as examples.”
“At first glance, it seems the recent spike in global temps was similar to 2016. But upon further inspection, the spike in 2016 came many months later at El Niño max.
“So although much of the spike this year is switch from 3 La Nina’s to El Niño, something is still missing.”
“This map from Climatologist49 shows that the record warmest temperatures are in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, & tropical Pacific, as well as the Indian Ocean and the Kuroshio Extension region off Japan.
“So it seems to be related to SST anomalies, but outside the Nino 3.4 region.”
“Record heat unleashes deadly floods from New York to Libya.
“Cities around the world have seen record rainfall 139 times in 2023… Soaring temperatures were at the root of all these weather calamities. June, July and August were the hottest ever for that period. Higher air temperatures mean the atmosphere can hold more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall, while record-hot oceans provide fuel for storms.”
“Scottish farmers say they’ve suffered some of the biggest losses in food crops the industry has ever seen as a result of the weekend’s flooding [image is of hay bales being washed down the River Aray].
“NFU Scotland said millions of pounds worth of unharvested vegetables have been damaged by flood waters described as unprecedented for the time of year.”
“The Government has no evidence to back up a recent claim it made saying the UK is on track to meet its internationally-agreed targets on improving nature, campaigners have said.
“After the Wildlife and Countryside Link (WCL) found there to be just over 3% of land and up to 8% of sea protected for nature – when the target is 30%.”
“Northern Ireland has recorded its warmest October day in 50 years after temperatures hit 22.5C [72.5F] in Co Fermanagh on Sunday.
“The mercury reached the unseasonably hot temperature in Derrylin… Last month was Northern Ireland’s joint warmest September on record and the joint warmest for the whole of the UK.”
“But climate scientists express concern over global temperature records and the impact on tree health amidst unseasonable warmth… Climate scientists have expressed shock about the unseasonably hot September, which has broken global records.”
“October is off a to historically warm start over much of Europe after its hottest September on record. And the next several days promise more record heat.
“So far this month, thousands of locations have set calendar day record highs, and scores have also set records for the entire month of October. Spain, France, Poland, Austria and Slovenia[now Croatia, too]all posted their highest October temperatures.”
“Spanish drought to press Europe’s olive oil supply further.
“A second consecutive year of drought in southern Spain will keep the country’s olive oil production below average in 2023/24, meaning the European Union faces another year of high prices, official data showed… Spain, the world’s top olive oil producer, usually supplies about 40% of global output…”
“Morocco has suffered five consecutive years of drought and officials and analysts say climate change is one of the biggest threats facing the kingdom. In the past, occasional droughts were followed by years of plentiful rains. Now, however, the country is widely considered to have entered an era of water scarcity…”
“Death toll in Cameroon landslide rises to 30, rescue efforts continuing.
“Rescuers pulled out three more bodies later Monday after landslides in Cameroon’s capital of Yaounde buried homes and buildings Sunday, bringing the death toll of the disaster to 30… The landslides occurred at 8 p.m., local time, Sunday in the hilly neighborhood of Mbankolo in Yaounde after a persistent downpour.”
“Ethiopian drought and child marriage – in portraits…
“Girls in parts of the country hit by drought and food shortages are increasingly being forced into child marriage, with rates rising by 119% in 2022. Bone-dry water sources, decimated crops and dying livestock have combined with vicious conflict to make early marriage a threat to them.”
“Over 100,000 displaced by flash floods in southwest Somalia.
“Flash floods caused by heavy rains on Wednesday have displaced 107,000 people in the Baidoa district in southwestern Somalia… The local authorities in Baidoa are preparing a response and have appealed to humanitarian partners and the international community to support the emergency needs…”
“Lockdown returns to Zimbabwe as health experts try to bring cholera outbreak under control…
“All public gatherings are banned in the southeastern Zaka district if they do not have official approval, while people have been discouraged from shaking hands, eating at gatherings and buying food from unlicensed vendors in the capital, Harare. Almost 5,000 suspected new cases of cholera have been recorded since late last month…”
“Harsh heat wave in Southern Africa with temperatures up to 43.8C [110.8F] at Tete [a mining region, pictured] in Mozambique and 42.5C at Mababe in Botswana (1000m asl).
“Record heat again in the Mauritius: 34.0C [93.2F] at Agalega Island is the new October heat record for Mauritius.”
“Joburg residents struggle with water shortages amid heatwave.
“Johannesburg residents have taken to social media to air their frustration over ongoing water interruptions. Some parts of the city remain with low-pressure water, while some areas’ taps are completely dry, as Gauteng continues to grapple with a looming water crisis.”
“Toxic storms blamed on climate change cloud Tajikistan.
““I can’t stop coughing. I’m fed up with this dust choking me,” Munira Khushkadamova, a teacher, said during a visit to the Sofia clinic in Dushanbe… “In the 1990s, there were two or three sand and dust storms per year in Tajikistan. Now there can be up to 35…””
“Death toll from flash floods in Indian Himalayas climbs to 74 with at least 100 still missing.
“Following days of torrential rain in the northeastern state of Sikkim, torrents of water swept down narrow river valleys from Lohnak Lake, in the northern part of the state, damaging a dam and wreaking destruction in villages and Rangpo town…”
“Heavy flooding in southern Myanmar displaces more than 10,000 people[parts of Myanmar saw 8 inches – a record for October].
“Flooding triggered by heavy monsoon rains in Myanmar’s southern areas has displaced more than 14,000 people and disrupted traffic on the rail lines that connect the country’s biggest cities, officials and state-run media said Monday.”
“Three people died and one person was missing following flash floods and landslides in northern Vietnam over the weekend, disaster officials said on Monday…
“Natural disasters including floods and landslides, have left 98 people dead or missing, and injured 103 others in Vietnam since the beginning of the year.”
“Losses from China disasters reach $42 billion in first nine months of 2023…
“The emergency management ministry unveiled on Sunday the unprecedented toll wrought on the nation of 1.4 billion by calamities that ranged from sandstorms to rains that brought massive flooding and historic rainfall in Beijing, the capital.”
“Hong Kong halts trading, closes schools post-typhoon…
“The storm caused non-stop rain overnight, leading the agency to issue a “black” rainstorm warning signal — its highest… rainfall exceeded 300 millimetres [12 inches] over some parts of urban Hong Kong island, data showed… In early September, Hong Kong experienced its highest rainfall [on record].”
“SINGAPORE: 36.3 Admiralty new official national monthly record; 38.7 INDONESIA 0.8C from national all time high; INDIA: 33.6 Bhuntar; 31.0 Dharamshala; EMIRATES: 43.6 Ras al Khaimah SAUDI: Tmin 33.0 [91.4F] Makkah HIGHEST OCTOBER TMIN IN SAUDI HISTORY.”
“Australians are being warned the next seven months could bring severe heatwaves and bushfires to large swathes of the country.
“The Bureau of Meteorology said in its latest climate outlook that an El Nino weather pattern on the east coast combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole on the west could bring extreme heat between October and April.”
“West Maui starts reopening to tourists as thousands still displaced after wildfires: “A lot of mixed emotions”…
“More than 2,000 buildings, the majority of them homes, were destroyed in the fire. In some cases, multiple families were living under one roof. Today, thousands of people are still displaced, being shuffled from one temporary location to another.”
“On 7 October the AWS of Iñapari rose to 41.6C [106.9F] breaking the ALL TIME NATIONAL HEAT RECORD again. It has been months of unstoppable record heat in South America. Tomorrow new heat wave with 43/44C in Paraguay and Bolivia. More bad news: Around mid month THE HELL.”
“Argentina may suffer massive losses in wheat yields due to drought.
“Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange warned on Oct. 5 that the country’s core agricultural farmland could suffer huge losses in wheat yields due to drought, Nasdaq reported citing Reuters. Last season’s drought hammered harvests, halving the country’s wheat output from the 23 million tons produced the previous year.”
“‘Without water, there is no life’: Drought in Brazil’s Amazon is sharpening fears for the future…
“Raimundo Silva do Carmo, 67, makes his living as a fisherman, but these days has been struggling to simply find water. Like most rural residents in Brazil’s Amazon, do Carmo typically retrieves water untreated from the biome’s abundant waterways.”
“Rains and floods lead 67 cities in Santa Catarina [SE Brazil] to declare emergency.
“The state of Santa Catarina has 132 municipalities with several occurrences due to the heavy rains that have hit the state since last week. According to the Civil Defense bulletin, released on Monday (9), 67 municipalities have already declared a state of emergency.”
“On 2 October US VIRGIN ISLANDS tied the October record heat with 94F/34.4C at St. Croix. Today SABA beat for the 4th time in 9 days the territorial October record with 32.9C. It’ll get worse/hotter.”
“Tensions Rise in the Rio Grande Basin as Mexico Lags in Water Deliveries to the U.S.
“In 2020, rebellious Mexican farmers occupied a dam in parched Chihuahua state to prevent the federal government from sending its reservoir water to Texas under a 1944 treaty. With the clock ticking toward another treaty deadline, the two sides are struggling for a solution.”
“Previous record was last October, with a depth of -10.75′. Tough break for farmers to see significant reductions in barge transport of crops during the peak part of harvest season 2 years in a row. Barges carry about 60% of U.S. grain exports.”
“It was the wettest summer on record for Wyoming — what does this mean?
“It was the wettest summer on record for Wyoming — at least since meteorologists began keeping track in 1895… Natoli said this relief is separate from the 23-year “megadrought” that has plagued the West. “In terms of canceling out the losses of the last 20 years, we unfortunately did not even get close,” he said.”
“Extreme Weather Disrupts U.S. Oil And Gas Sector…
“This kind of extreme weather plays a significant part in the volatility in the oil and gas sector, resulting in prices, supply and demand often swinging drastically from hour to hour. While shorter than recessions, weather events have super-sized effects on the entire oil and gas supply chain.”
“According to the International Centre for Waterspout Research, Saturday, Oct. 7, was a record-breaking day on Lake Erie with more than 180 waterspouts spotted.
“Residents of northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania spotted dozens of waterspouts over Lake Erie. In total, there were more than 180 reports of waterspouts.”
“Wildfires in Alberta could burn all winter: official.
“The end of October marks the official end to the province’s wildfire season, but Mother Nature does not follow a calendar. As of Monday afternoon, 87 wildfires were burning in Alberta with one still deemed out of control in the High Level Forest Area.”
“Heat Waves in the Ground Are Getting More Extreme—and Perilous.
“Scientists are racing to understand the consequences… This proliferation of heat could have major implications for the intricate natural systems that grow our food, process water, and even sequester carbon. At a certain point, warming soils could actually contribute to higher air temperatures, in a gnarly sort of climatic feedback loop.”
“Climate-driven extreme heat may make parts of Earth too hot for humans.
“If global temperatures increase by 1° Celsius (C) or more than current levels, each year billions of people will be exposed to heat and humidity so extreme they will be unable to naturally cool themselves, according to interdisciplinary research from the Penn State College of Health and Human Development…”
“Atmospheric Methane: Comparison Between Methane’s Record in 2006–2022 and During Glacial Terminations…
“…recent changes may be comparable or greater in scale and speed than methane’s growth and isotopic shift during past glacial/interglacial termination events. It ….is possible that methane’s recent growth and isotopic shift may indicate a large-scale reorganization of the natural climate and biosphere is under way.”
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
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“World breaches key 1.5C warming mark for record number of days [my apologies if the formatting looks peculiar today, especially on phones; I hit a technical hitch].
“On about a third of days in 2023, the average global temperature was at least 1.5C higher than pre-industrial levels. Staying below that marker long-term is widely considered crucial to avoid the most damaging impacts of climate change. But 2023 is “on track” to be the hottest year on record, and 2024 could be hotter.”
“I’m a climate expert – this is why the planet is nearing its doom.
“We just don’t know if the door to a safe operating space for humanity is in the process of being slammed shut… if you are not freaking out about what is happening to vital climate signals this year then you have not been paying attention.”
“…what’s weird about current anomalies is that they are happening in much more mild ENSO conditions than in 2016.
“Feb 2016 had an 3.4-region anomaly of 2.1C (and was two months after the peak at 2.6C). Today we are only at 1.6C for the 3.4-region, with the peak ahead [Zeke Hausfather].”
“The latest ECMWF guidance shows a strong El Niño peaking in January 2024.
“The central equatorial Pacific is forecast to reach around 2.3˚C above average. El Niño, a strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole & global ocean warmth will make its presence felt in the months ahead.”
“Exceptionally high temperatures in Labrador with 26.6°C [79.9F] in Northwest River (unofficial) & 25.8°C in Goose Bay among EC stations where the monthly record has been smashed by 3°C!
“It’s also a new October record for Labrador (previous 23.3°C).Records in Churchill Falls & Makkovik.”
“‘Unprecedented’ marine heat wave hits Canada’s East Coast this summer.
“Surface temperatures reached record highs throughout the region — including a huge weeklong spike off Newfoundland that averaged 6.7 C above normal. Fisheries and Oceans climate scientist Peter Galbraith compiled the data for the World Meteorological Organization…”
“Wildfires in British Columbia cause insured losses of more than $720m: IBC.
“Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. estimates over $720 million in insured losses have been attributed to wildfires in the Okanagan (McDougall Creek) and Shuswap (Bush Creek East), resulting in these wildfires being named the most costly insured event ever recorded in British Columbia…”
In a major policy shift, California may allow insurance companies to factor in climate change risks when calculating premiums — the latest example of how a warming planet is reshaping the economy… don’t expect that coverage to be cheap. In Florida, for example, homeowners policies have risen in recent years from an average of $1,500 to $9,000 annually.”
“You need to be saving more for emergencies, thanks to climate change.
“For the financially fragile, climate change is making life even more expensive. How do you budget for wildfires, flooding or extreme heat if you’re already living paycheck to paycheck? Where do you find the money to relocate when a tornado destroys your home?”
“‘Never saw anything like this’: Texas car lot owner describes hail storm that destroyed vehicles.
“Edward Andrews, owner of the Special Touch II Auto Sales in Fort Worth, Texas, says he’s thankful that insurance will be able to help recover the losses his business suffered because of a hail storm this week.”
“Climate change is a fiscal disaster for local governments − our study shows how it’s testing communities in Florida…
“…climate disasters and sea-level rise also harm local governments financially by increasing costs and undercutting their property tax bases. Local reliance on property taxes also can discourage cities from steering development out of flood zones, which is essential for reducing long-term risks.”
“Marine mammals in U.S. waters are losing food and habitat to climate change, study finds.
“Researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration examined more than 100 stocks of American marine mammal species and found more than 70 percent of those stocks are vulnerable to threats, such as loss of habitat and food, due to the consequences of warming waters.”
“The Cayman Islands did not escape the impact of a warming world last month when, like much of the northern hemisphere, heat records here were broken yet again…Meanwhile, local sea surface temperatures, which have also been breaking records throughout most of this year, are expected to remain well above average, continuing to amplify heat stress.”
“Endless record heat in tropical Americas from North to South.
“Yesterday exceptional 37.0C [98.6F] at Chihuahua MEXICO 1400m above sea level, destroys its October record. Record also at Matlpa 38.1C. In BOLIVIA records every day: 39.7 Cobija monthly; 39.4 San Ignacio all time high.”
“Brazil: Emergency response ongoing following Oct. 4 tornado in Cascavel, Parana.
“Ongoing recovery operations are occurring in Cascavel, Parana, as of Oct. 5, after a tornado touched down on Oct. 4. Widespread infrastructure damage, including to vehicles and houses, and downed trees blocking several roads have been reported in affected areas. Ongoing power outages have been reported.”
“99% of Caatinga biome [NE Brazil] could lose plant species due to climate change…
“An unprecedented study analyzed 420,000 occurrence records for 3,060 Caatinga plant species… Even though the species in the biome are theoretically adapted to extreme climates, researchers found that the Caatinga is much more vulnerable to climate changes than previously believed.”
“South American monsoon heading towards ‘tipping point’ likely to cause Amazon dieback.
“The South American monsoon, which determines the climate of much of the continent, is being pushed towards a “critical destabilisation point”, according to a study that links regional rainfall to Amazon deforestation and global heating.”
“Amazon drought strands floating Brazilian village on lake turned into mud.
“Life has come to a standstill for a floating village now stranded on mud flats left by severe drought in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest… As Lake Puraquequara dried up, so too has business evaporated for the owners of boats and floating shops that are also stuck in the mud.”
“Thousands of salmon escaped an Icelandic fish farm. The impact could be deadly.
“The escape – at a pen in Patreksfjörður owned by Arctic Fish, one of the country’s largest salmon-farming companies, which is owned by Norwegian salmon giant Mowi – has reignited calls from environmentalists, sport fishers and some politicians to restrict or ban open-pen fish farming.”
“Scottish salmon production plunged by a fifth last year amid record deaths on fish farms and the blight of parasites and disease.
“The Scottish Fish Farm Production Survey 2022 found production of Atlantic salmon decreased by 36,199 tons – 18 per cent – to stand at 169,194 tonnes, a much bigger drop than previously forecast.”
“Slovenian sea with record temperatures for October.
“Piran, 6 October – Temperature measured at the bottom of the Gulf of Trieste in the first week of October surpassed 23 degrees Celsius, which is the highest temperature measured at the start of October…”
“Spain and Portugal again >37C [98.6F] and more days to go. Today many monthly records broken… SPAIN: 37.4 Seville; 30.1 Madrid Retiro Park… FRANCE: 31.9 Lagrasse; 31.6 Castelnaudary; 31.1 Carcassone; 30.7 Lunas… MADEIRA ISLAND: 34.7 Funchal Island October record.”
“Further South the heat is extreme in Canary Islands with records beaten every day but even more South records are broken also in the Cape Verde Islands.
“35.4C at Mindelo and 35.8C [96.4F] at Sal; Cape Verde are also living a history heat wave since weeks with the warmest nights in history.”
“‘Broken in two’: Libya flood survivors grapple with mental health.
“Nearly a month after floods hit Derna in eastern Libya, survivors are struggling to overcome the psychological toll, with many grieving the loss — or still without news — of loved ones… “Derna, today, is broken in two. It’s a reflection of what its inhabitants feel,” said Mayssam Hasedi, who lost more than 20 relatives in the flash floods.”
“…the highest temperature recorded yesterday in Iran was 46.8°C [116.2F] in Ab Baksh.
“This is a new October national record and highest temperature ever recorded so late in the Northern Hemisphere. Kudos to Sedighi Seberi for the data.”
“Heavy rains and floods kill 6 people in Sri Lanka and force schools to close.
“…the state-run Disaster Management Center said the floods and mudslides damaged hundreds of houses in 12 districts and affected more than 50,000 people, including 1,473 families who were moved to temporary shelters.”
“Death toll rises to 40 after glacial lake flooding in Indian Himalayas, dozens still missing…
“It is one of the worst disasters in the region in more than 50 years and the latest in a series of extreme weather events that have caused widespread damage in South Asia’s Himalayas in recent years, blamed by scientists on climate change.”
“China expands climate change surveillance on Himalayan peak…
“Scientists are increasingly watching how climate change is impacting the environmentally fragile Himalayas, home to the planet’s tallest peaks and the source of water for rivers that hundreds of millions of people depend on… Since the end of September, a Chinese team has set up five automatic weather stations on Cho Oyu…”
“HONG KONG yesterday 36.0C [96.8F] Happy Valley ties the territorial highest temperature in October; 34.6C the Observatory also ties the record… TAIWAN today 38.7C ties the Taiwanese October heat record.”
“Typhoon Koinu left at least one person dead on Thursday as it grazed Taiwan’s southern tip, lashing the island with the strongest winds it has ever recorded…
“Two-thirds of the concrete power poles in Lanyu [the island where the storm hit most powerfully] were broken, the power has been out for three days, and the roads are blocked by fallen trees.”[h/t Jim Yang via Twitter].”
“Video shared on social media showed heavy rains and flooding in the region’s largest city of Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk… Russia’s Far East regions have faced intense storms in recent months, with scientists saying that the onset of El Nino, a climate pattern that warms sea surface temperatures, is likely contributing to more powerful storms.”
“Last month’s average sea surface temperature around Japan was the HIGHEST on record for September, exceeding the previous record by a SIGNIFICANT margin.
“SST around Hokkaido was particularly high, with a monthly average of 3.8°C higher than normal!”
“I wonder what it will take for these Indonesian fires to get mass media attention?
“Thousands of fires, smoke plumes the size of France, tens of millions exposed to hazardous smoke, & the loss of crucial carbon stores. The Tenerife fires have had more coverage!”
“Indonesia’s Deputy Environment and Forestry Minister Alue Dohong is facing health issues after helping to fight forest and land fires in Kalimantan…
““My body grew tired, and I collapsed. Last night, I went to the hospital after experiencing a headache, high fever, stomach pain, and cough,” he posted on official social media account on Wednesday.”
“Antarctica’s Floral Awakening: How Climate Change is Transforming the Continent’s Ecosystem.
“…recent scientific research has unveiled a surprising and concerning transformation in this remote corner of the world. Flowers are blooming in Antarctica, a phenomenon that has garnered attention not only for its intrinsic beauty but also for the profound implications it holds for the global climate crisis.”
“Australian Antarctic Division admits to ‘extraordinary overspend’ of $42m before climate projects halted.
“The Australian Antarctic Division did not have internal budgets and overspent $42m in one year before being forced to cancel or defer dozens of crucial climate science projects, including studies of record-low sea ice.”
“Shortfall in climate change cash grows ahead of COP28.
“The United Nations’ main fund for helping vulnerable countries cope with climate change said on Thursday it had raised $9.3 billion, falling short of a $10 billion target after wealthy nations, including the United States, failed to pay in. The amount represents just a fraction of the $200 billion – $250 billion that developing countries will need every year by 2030…”
“Weather disasters caused by climate change displaced 43 million children, says UNICEF.
“Weather disasters fueled by climate change — from floods to droughts, storms to wildfires — sparked 43.1 million child displacements from 2016 to 2021, the UN Children’s Fund warned Thursday, slamming the lack of attention paid to victims.”
“Drought caused ‘historic’ global hydropower drop in early 2023…
“…global hydropower generation fell 8.5 percent in the year to June, more than any full-year decline over the last two decades. Three-quarters of that decline was the result of falls in China, which baked through record temperatures earlier this year.”
“Climate Change Is Pushing Many of the World’s Amphibians Closer to Extinction…
““It’s a gut punch and an awakening,” JJ Apodaca, the executive director of the nonprofit Amphibian and Reptile Conservancy who did not contribute to the findings, tells the Washington Post’s Dino Grandoni.”
“Blocking the Sun May Fight Climate Change But Kill Our Crops…
“A new study from scientists at Rutgers University published Thursday in the journal Nature Food found that climate intervention may negatively impact crop growth and food production in large regions of the world. Not only could the process cause food shortages, but it could also greatly exacerbate relations [tensions, I assume] between nations.”
Evening update: parts of Scotland (including mine) deluged; no trains running into or back from England; many road closures and landslides. I would be unable to reach Glasgow if I wished as all routes are blocked.
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
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Weekday updates on both climate change and the global economy. Stay current with what’s happening around the world with a quick scan of top news.