“World breaches key 1.5C warming mark for record number of days [my apologies if the formatting looks peculiar today, especially on phones; I hit a technical hitch].
“On about a third of days in 2023, the average global temperature was at least 1.5C higher than pre-industrial levels. Staying below that marker long-term is widely considered crucial to avoid the most damaging impacts of climate change. But 2023 is “on track” to be the hottest year on record, and 2024 could be hotter.”
“I’m a climate expert – this is why the planet is nearing its doom.
“We just don’t know if the door to a safe operating space for humanity is in the process of being slammed shut… if you are not freaking out about what is happening to vital climate signals this year then you have not been paying attention.”
“Viewed from space, Earth has darkened significantly over the last 20y; satellite data show a roughly 2% reduction in reflected sunlight.
“This has led to an increase in Earth’s already rising energy imbalance due to CO2 emissions. No wonder global heating has been accelerating.”
“…what’s weird about current anomalies is that they are happening in much more mild ENSO conditions than in 2016.
“Feb 2016 had an 3.4-region anomaly of 2.1C (and was two months after the peak at 2.6C). Today we are only at 1.6C for the 3.4-region, with the peak ahead [Zeke Hausfather].”
“The latest ECMWF guidance shows a strong El Niño peaking in January 2024.
“The central equatorial Pacific is forecast to reach around 2.3˚C above average. El Niño, a strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole & global ocean warmth will make its presence felt in the months ahead.”
“Exceptionally high temperatures in Labrador with 26.6°C [79.9F] in Northwest River (unofficial) & 25.8°C in Goose Bay among EC stations where the monthly record has been smashed by 3°C!
“It’s also a new October record for Labrador (previous 23.3°C). Records in Churchill Falls & Makkovik.”
“‘Unprecedented’ marine heat wave hits Canada’s East Coast this summer.
“Surface temperatures reached record highs throughout the region — including a huge weeklong spike off Newfoundland that averaged 6.7 C above normal. Fisheries and Oceans climate scientist Peter Galbraith compiled the data for the World Meteorological Organization…”
“Wildfires in British Columbia cause insured losses of more than $720m: IBC.
“Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. estimates over $720 million in insured losses have been attributed to wildfires in the Okanagan (McDougall Creek) and Shuswap (Bush Creek East), resulting in these wildfires being named the most costly insured event ever recorded in British Columbia…”
“Climate leaves home insurance ‘changed forever’.
In a major policy shift, California may allow insurance companies to factor in climate change risks when calculating premiums — the latest example of how a warming planet is reshaping the economy… don’t expect that coverage to be cheap. In Florida, for example, homeowners policies have risen in recent years from an average of $1,500 to $9,000 annually.”
“You need to be saving more for emergencies, thanks to climate change.
“For the financially fragile, climate change is making life even more expensive. How do you budget for wildfires, flooding or extreme heat if you’re already living paycheck to paycheck? Where do you find the money to relocate when a tornado destroys your home?”
“‘Never saw anything like this’: Texas car lot owner describes hail storm that destroyed vehicles.
“Edward Andrews, owner of the Special Touch II Auto Sales in Fort Worth, Texas, says he’s thankful that insurance will be able to help recover the losses his business suffered because of a hail storm this week.”
“Climate change is a fiscal disaster for local governments − our study shows how it’s testing communities in Florida…
“…climate disasters and sea-level rise also harm local governments financially by increasing costs and undercutting their property tax bases. Local reliance on property taxes also can discourage cities from steering development out of flood zones, which is essential for reducing long-term risks.”
“Marine mammals in U.S. waters are losing food and habitat to climate change, study finds.
“Researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration examined more than 100 stocks of American marine mammal species and found more than 70 percent of those stocks are vulnerable to threats, such as loss of habitat and food, due to the consequences of warming waters.”
“Cayman boiled in record September heat.
“The Cayman Islands did not escape the impact of a warming world last month when, like much of the northern hemisphere, heat records here were broken yet again… Meanwhile, local sea surface temperatures, which have also been breaking records throughout most of this year, are expected to remain well above average, continuing to amplify heat stress.”
“Endless record heat in tropical Americas from North to South.
“Yesterday exceptional 37.0C [98.6F] at Chihuahua MEXICO 1400m above sea level, destroys its October record. Record also at Matlpa 38.1C. In BOLIVIA records every day: 39.7 Cobija monthly; 39.4 San Ignacio all time high.”
“New October record for Peru with 40.5C [104.9F] in Iñapari yesterday. The previous record was 40.2C in Tarapoto… set a few days ago!”
“Brazil: Emergency response ongoing following Oct. 4 tornado in Cascavel, Parana.
“Ongoing recovery operations are occurring in Cascavel, Parana, as of Oct. 5, after a tornado touched down on Oct. 4. Widespread infrastructure damage, including to vehicles and houses, and downed trees blocking several roads have been reported in affected areas. Ongoing power outages have been reported.”
“99% of Caatinga biome [NE Brazil] could lose plant species due to climate change…
“An unprecedented study analyzed 420,000 occurrence records for 3,060 Caatinga plant species… Even though the species in the biome are theoretically adapted to extreme climates, researchers found that the Caatinga is much more vulnerable to climate changes than previously believed.”
“South American monsoon heading towards ‘tipping point’ likely to cause Amazon dieback.
“The South American monsoon, which determines the climate of much of the continent, is being pushed towards a “critical destabilisation point”, according to a study that links regional rainfall to Amazon deforestation and global heating.”
“Amazon drought strands floating Brazilian village on lake turned into mud.
“Life has come to a standstill for a floating village now stranded on mud flats left by severe drought in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest… As Lake Puraquequara dried up, so too has business evaporated for the owners of boats and floating shops that are also stuck in the mud.”
“Thousands of salmon escaped an Icelandic fish farm. The impact could be deadly.
“The escape – at a pen in Patreksfjörður owned by Arctic Fish, one of the country’s largest salmon-farming companies, which is owned by Norwegian salmon giant Mowi – has reignited calls from environmentalists, sport fishers and some politicians to restrict or ban open-pen fish farming.”
“Scottish salmon production plunged by a fifth last year amid record deaths on fish farms and the blight of parasites and disease.
“The Scottish Fish Farm Production Survey 2022 found production of Atlantic salmon decreased by 36,199 tons – 18 per cent – to stand at 169,194 tonnes, a much bigger drop than previously forecast.”
“Slovenian sea with record temperatures for October.
“Piran, 6 October – Temperature measured at the bottom of the Gulf of Trieste in the first week of October surpassed 23 degrees Celsius, which is the highest temperature measured at the start of October…”
“Unbelievable heat in SW Europe:
“Spain and Portugal again >37C [98.6F] and more days to go. Today many monthly records broken… SPAIN: 37.4 Seville; 30.1 Madrid Retiro Park… FRANCE: 31.9 Lagrasse; 31.6 Castelnaudary; 31.1 Carcassone; 30.7 Lunas… MADEIRA ISLAND: 34.7 Funchal Island October record.”
“Further South the heat is extreme in Canary Islands with records beaten every day but even more South records are broken also in the Cape Verde Islands.
“35.4C at Mindelo and 35.8C [96.4F] at Sal; Cape Verde are also living a history heat wave since weeks with the warmest nights in history.”
“‘Broken in two’: Libya flood survivors grapple with mental health.
“Nearly a month after floods hit Derna in eastern Libya, survivors are struggling to overcome the psychological toll, with many grieving the loss — or still without news — of loved ones… “Derna, today, is broken in two. It’s a reflection of what its inhabitants feel,” said Mayssam Hasedi, who lost more than 20 relatives in the flash floods.”
“…the highest temperature recorded yesterday in Iran was 46.8°C [116.2F] in Ab Baksh.
“This is a new October national record and highest temperature ever recorded so late in the Northern Hemisphere. Kudos to Sedighi Seberi for the data.”
“Heavy rains and floods kill 6 people in Sri Lanka and force schools to close.
“…the state-run Disaster Management Center said the floods and mudslides damaged hundreds of houses in 12 districts and affected more than 50,000 people, including 1,473 families who were moved to temporary shelters.”
“Death toll rises to 40 after glacial lake flooding in Indian Himalayas, dozens still missing…
“It is one of the worst disasters in the region in more than 50 years and the latest in a series of extreme weather events that have caused widespread damage in South Asia’s Himalayas in recent years, blamed by scientists on climate change.”
“China expands climate change surveillance on Himalayan peak…
“Scientists are increasingly watching how climate change is impacting the environmentally fragile Himalayas, home to the planet’s tallest peaks and the source of water for rivers that hundreds of millions of people depend on… Since the end of September, a Chinese team has set up five automatic weather stations on Cho Oyu…”
“HISTORIC heat is sweeping all Asia:
“HONG KONG yesterday 36.0C [96.8F] Happy Valley ties the territorial highest temperature in October; 34.6C the Observatory also ties the record… TAIWAN today 38.7C ties the Taiwanese October heat record.”
“Typhoon Koinu left at least one person dead on Thursday as it grazed Taiwan’s southern tip, lashing the island with the strongest winds it has ever recorded…
“Two-thirds of the concrete power poles in Lanyu [the island where the storm hit most powerfully] were broken, the power has been out for three days, and the roads are blocked by fallen trees.” [h/t Jim Yang via Twitter].”
“Powerful storm pummels Russia’s Far East…
“Video shared on social media showed heavy rains and flooding in the region’s largest city of Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk… Russia’s Far East regions have faced intense storms in recent months, with scientists saying that the onset of El Nino, a climate pattern that warms sea surface temperatures, is likely contributing to more powerful storms.”
“Last month’s average sea surface temperature around Japan was the HIGHEST on record for September, exceeding the previous record by a SIGNIFICANT margin.
“SST around Hokkaido was particularly high, with a monthly average of 3.8°C higher than normal!”
“I wonder what it will take for these Indonesian fires to get mass media attention?
“Thousands of fires, smoke plumes the size of France, tens of millions exposed to hazardous smoke, & the loss of crucial carbon stores. The Tenerife fires have had more coverage!”
“Indonesia’s Deputy Environment and Forestry Minister Alue Dohong is facing health issues after helping to fight forest and land fires in Kalimantan…
““My body grew tired, and I collapsed. Last night, I went to the hospital after experiencing a headache, high fever, stomach pain, and cough,” he posted on official social media account on Wednesday.”
“Antarctica’s Floral Awakening: How Climate Change is Transforming the Continent’s Ecosystem.
“…recent scientific research has unveiled a surprising and concerning transformation in this remote corner of the world. Flowers are blooming in Antarctica, a phenomenon that has garnered attention not only for its intrinsic beauty but also for the profound implications it holds for the global climate crisis.”
“Australian Antarctic Division admits to ‘extraordinary overspend’ of $42m before climate projects halted.
“The Australian Antarctic Division did not have internal budgets and overspent $42m in one year before being forced to cancel or defer dozens of crucial climate science projects, including studies of record-low sea ice.”
“Shortfall in climate change cash grows ahead of COP28.
“The United Nations’ main fund for helping vulnerable countries cope with climate change said on Thursday it had raised $9.3 billion, falling short of a $10 billion target after wealthy nations, including the United States, failed to pay in. The amount represents just a fraction of the $200 billion – $250 billion that developing countries will need every year by 2030…”
“Weather disasters caused by climate change displaced 43 million children, says UNICEF.
“Weather disasters fueled by climate change — from floods to droughts, storms to wildfires — sparked 43.1 million child displacements from 2016 to 2021, the UN Children’s Fund warned Thursday, slamming the lack of attention paid to victims.”
“Drought caused ‘historic’ global hydropower drop in early 2023…
“…global hydropower generation fell 8.5 percent in the year to June, more than any full-year decline over the last two decades. Three-quarters of that decline was the result of falls in China, which baked through record temperatures earlier this year.”
“Climate Change Is Pushing Many of the World’s Amphibians Closer to Extinction…
““It’s a gut punch and an awakening,” JJ Apodaca, the executive director of the nonprofit Amphibian and Reptile Conservancy who did not contribute to the findings, tells the Washington Post’s Dino Grandoni.”
“Blocking the Sun May Fight Climate Change But Kill Our Crops…
“A new study from scientists at Rutgers University published Thursday in the journal Nature Food found that climate intervention may negatively impact crop growth and food production in large regions of the world. Not only could the process cause food shortages, but it could also greatly exacerbate relations [tensions, I assume] between nations.”
Evening update: parts of Scotland (including mine) deluged; no trains running into or back from England; many road closures and landslides. I would be unable to reach Glasgow if I wished as all routes are blocked.
Pictured is a landslide near Inverary.
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
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