“The insurance world is flirting with its climate doom loop…
“The unpredictable path of climate change is a particular problem for insurers that cling to historical data like a comfort blanket. As the Bank of England puts it, “Historic data sets are not likely to be a good predictor of how climate risks may affect firms’ future losses.” Insured losses for natural catastrophes were 54 per cent above their 10-year average in the first half of 2023, according to Swiss Re…
“The implications of uninsurability have caught the attention of financial regulators, who previously viewed climate losses in the financial sector as the key issue for stability.”
https://www.ft.com/content/a35dfd84-6ba4-4a2f-8b88-90576f51ec34
“Global economic losses from extreme weather could hit $5 trillion, Lloyd’s says.
“Global economic losses could reach $5 trillion under a “plausible increase” in extreme weather events linked to climate change that cause crop failures and food and water shortages, insurance marketplace Lloyd’s of London said on Wednesday.”
“Use of weather derivatives surges as extreme climate events rock the globe.
“Energy companies, hedge funds and commodity traders are stepping up their use of financial products that let them bet on the weather, as they seek to protect themselves against – or profit from – the increasingly extreme global climate.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-weather-derivatives-analysis-pix-2023-10-11/
“90%! chance that 2023 has an annual-average temperature anomaly more than 1.5 °C above the 1850-1900 average.
“See how this estimate changed in the past months.”
https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1712093457844523142
“October is coming along swimmingly, we’ll see if the next few days bring all-time record global temperature anomalies [image is of global surface temp anomaly].
“What a year. What a sad, sad year.”
https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1712068623974727814
“Even temporary global warming above 2°C will affect life in the oceans for centuries.
“Our newly published research investigates the implications of a climate overshoot for the oceans. Across all climate overshoot experiments and all models, our analysis found associated changes in water temperatures and oxygen levels will decrease viable ocean habitats. The decrease was observed for centuries.”
“Is climate change turning the ocean green?
“A new study revealed that 56% of the global sea surface has changed color in the past 20 years. Data from NASA’s MODIS instrument showed that much of the change is from the ocean turning more green.”
https://twitter.com/NASAClimate/status/1711852564793192465
“Arctic Sea Ice Resumes Its Slide.
“After a brief rebound in 2020, the oldest ice floating in the Arctic Sea appears to have resumed its melt toward oblivion, according to data released this week by the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado Boulder.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2023/10/12/polar-sea-ice-resumes-its-slide/
“Confirmed: Salmon are spawning in Arctic rivers.
“Researchers have confirmed that salmon are spawning in an Arctic Ocean watershed, suggesting that at least some salmon species could be expanding to new territory as climate change reshapes their habitat.”
https://alaska-native-news.com/confirmed-salmon-are-spawning-in-arctic-rivers/70206/
“Humpback whales increasingly sighted in Arctic Alaska waters better known as bowhead territory.
“A study, which points to climate change as a possible factor pushing humpbacks north, shows results that are both ‘fascinating’ and ‘a little terrifying,’ one author says.”
“New, fast-growing wildfire threatens more than 2 dozen properties in northeastern B.C.
“The Mount Wartenbe wildfire is already considered a wildfire of note by the B.C. Wildfire Service, meaning it’s highly visible or a potential threat to public safety. It’s burning near Lone Prairie, about 20 kilometres southeast of Chetwynd and 80 kilometres southwest of Fort St. John.”
“Another Billion-Dollar Disaster Added To 2023’s Record-Breaking List [US].
“A monthly update issued Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration cited heat and drought in parts of the South and Midwest as the latest U.S. weather or climate disaster to have damage estimated at more than $1 billion.”
https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-10-10-billion-dollar-disasters-2023-record
“A storm in New Mexico created an incredible scene Monday, with drivers navigating “rivers of hail.”
“KRQE News 13 chief meteorologist Grant Tosterud shared a video on X, formerly known as Twitter, from Dorothea Delgado that showed debris covering a road and a small river full of hail running alongside it.”
https://news.yahoo.com/jarring-footage-shows-cars-driving-093000003.html
“Painful Dengue May ‘Take Off’ In United States—What To Know About The ‘Breakbone Fever’ Virus.
“The World Health Organization’s chief scientist Jeremy Farrar has warned dengue fever could soon “take off” and become a constant presence in the United States, one of many emerging health threats driven by the climate crisis…”
“Cat 4 Lidia is Mexico’s 3rd-strongest landfalling Pacific hurricane on record.
“After a phenomenal burst of rapid intensification on Tuesday, Hurricane Lidia made landfall at 7:50 p.m. EDT Tuesday, October 10, as a dangerous Category 4 storm with top sustained winds of 140 mph and a central pressure of 942 mb.”
“Exceptional heat in tropical Americas. RECORDS are being shattered from Mexico to Argentina [1]. * National/Territorial Hottest October day on record
“DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: 38.7 [101.7F] Monte Cristi *; 38 Puerto Plata; FRENCH GUIANA: 38.5 Grand Santi *; HONDURAS: 35.2 Puerto Lempira.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1712186908275519522
“Historic heat wave in South America [2]:
“Filadelfia PARAGUAY Extremes TMIN 31.2 TMAX 44.7… HIGHEST OCTOBER MIN. TEMPERATURE IN SOUTH AMERICAN HISTORY; BOLIVIA ALL TIME RECORDS: 40.5 Trinidad; 25.5 Potosi AP 3935m; ARGENTINA 27.5 La Quiaca 3459m monthly record.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1712228500814372983
“Another country broke a monthly national heat record earlier this month: COLOMBIA.
“On 2 October Villavieja rose to 42.0C [107.6F], which beats the 41.8C set at Guamo in 2013 (Natagaima was unreliable in 2013/2015).”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1711839342736408939
“Climate change drove deadly winter heat wave in South America, study says.
“Global warming was the main driver of the heat wave that scorched South America for most of August and September and raised temperatures by as much as 4.3 degrees Celsius, according to a study published on Tuesday.”
“Ferocious wildfires surrounded a resort city in Argentina overnight, forcing the mass evacuation of hundreds of families during an intense heatwave.
“Alarming footage shows a wall of flames tearing towards the resort city of Villa Carlos Paz, with a population of 56,000, in the Punilla Valley of the central Cordoba province as temperatures reached 35C.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/argentina-fires-villa-carlos-paz-b2427729.html
“Indigenous Amazonians urge Brazil to declare emergency over severe drought…
“The drought and heatwave has killed masses of fish in the rivers that Indigenous people live off and the water in the muddy streams and tributaries of the Amazon river has become undrinkable, the umbrella organization Apiam that represents 63 tribes in the Amazon said on Tuesday.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/10/brazil-amazon-drought-indigenous-climate-change
“Record average September temperatures stretched from the southern part of Finland into Central Lapland, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)’s most recent data shows.
“Northern Lapland also experienced temperatures the FMI characterized as “exceptionally high” in a statement.”
“October temperature record beaten by… 6°C !!! yesterday in northern Brittany, my home place.
“Utterly schocking, devastating… We have no idea what this climate is becoming.”
https://twitter.com/subfossilguy/status/1711668817024168262
“Summer temperatures return to Germany with highs of 27C [80.6F]…
“A new study by Germany’s Institute for Ecological Economic Research has revealed that at the current rate of policy development, extreme weather caused by climate change could cost the federal republic as much as 900 billion euros in cumulative economic damage by 2050.”
https://www.iamexpat.de/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/summer-temperatures-return-germany-highs-27c
“Rhine rates jump as demand ‘shoots up’, water levels drop.
“Freight rates to ship barges along the Rhine River soared this week to hit two-month highs as demand picked up after weeks of sluggish appetite while water levels near dangerously low levels.”
https://www.qcintel.com/article/rhine-rates-jump-as-demand-shoots-up-water-levels-drop-17616.html
“Extreme heat wave in the area known as Macaronesia: Canary Islands keep rising >38C every day
“MADEIRA: Extraordinary Territorial October record yesterday with 36.4C [100.4F] at Sao Vicente. Hot days and nights for days, it would be rare in mid summer. Persistent heat also in Cape Verde.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1711789109897732594
“Canary Islands schools close and wildfire revives in soaring temperatures.
“Authorities on the Canary Islands have ordered the temporary closure of schools due to scorching temperatures on the archipelago that have set records and helped revive a huge wildfire on Tenerife… Local media said there had been several cases of students fainting or suffering heatstroke in recent days in the Canaries.”
“Kenya’s Lake Victoria floods leave orphaned children to run their households.
“Beginning in 2019, devastating floods on the shores of Kenya’s Lake Victoria have inundated homes, displaced families and left some orphaned children in charge of caring for their siblings and running the household. Many families continue to live in makeshift camps…”
“More record heat in Southern Africa. Yesterday Zambia rose to 42C, very close to its national heat record. 42C [107.6F] again in Botswana highlands.
“In Mauritius, Agalega Island with 34.2C broke the national October record heat again as it did every single month of the past 6.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1711690539001930201
“With [South Africa’s] water resources fast drying up, more municipalities are resorting to boreholes to mitigate water shortages.
“Amajuba District Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal has announced plans to revive the borehole system in all of its three local municipalities. Provision of water is a core responsibility of district municipalities.”
“Climate Change Threatens Himalayan Glaciers: A Time Bomb for Water Supplies…
“A recent study has unveiled a chilling forecast of the disappearance of two-thirds of the region’s glaciers by 2100, a dire consequence of the warming planet. This unfolding climate catastrophe in the Himalayas has potentially far-reaching implications…”
“India Set to Restrict Sugar Exports in Threat to Global Supply.
“India is expected to impose restrictions on its sugar exports after dry weather parched cane crops in the world’s second-biggest grower, a move that will tighten global supplies of the sweetener. The South Asian nation is likely to curb shipments during the new season that started Oct. 1…”
“Very hot in Western Australia including nightime.
“Today the Min. temperature at Bidyadanga was 30.5C [86.9F] which is one of the highest Min. temperatures ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere this time of the year. The heat will just get worse.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1712049415093903755
“Soil moisture at record low in Northern Rivers as intense drought spreads in NSW.
“The number of parishes in the Clarence Valley experiencing intense drought has tripled in the last week, from 10 to 31… The Bureau of Meterology says some rain is expected later in the year. In the Richmond Valley, the number has risen from 8 to 13 parishes, with the extreme conditions also extending into North Codrington…”
“How climate change is threatening your beer.
“It’s getting harder to grow coffee, tea, and grapes for wine on a hotter planet — and now researchers say, climate change may be coming for your IPA. A new study out Tuesday found drought and higher temperatures will lead to a decrease in the quality and quantity of hops…”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2023/10/10/climate-change-beer-hops/
“Impacts of climate change threaten children’s mental health starting before birth.
“Climate change poses a particular threat to children and youth, starting before birth and potentially derailing the normal development of physiological systems, cognitive abilities and emotional skills in ways that are sometimes irreversible, according to a report…”
https://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/2023/10/climate-change-children-mental-health
“Prudent risk management requires consideration of worst-case scenarios. Such futures are poorly understood for climate change.
“Could anthropogenic CC result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? This is a dangerously underexplored topic.”
https://twitter.com/DianaUrge/status/1711281911786614869
“Massive prehistoric solar storm is warning for Earth, researchers say.
“… the Carrington Event has long been thought of as the benchmark for the most intense geomagnetic storm observed on Earth, sending northern lights displays as far south as Florida and Central America and knocking out communication systems. But now, new research has unveiled evidence of a much larger solar storm that could reset record books.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/10/11/largest-solar-storm-research-earth/
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
Well, at least there is one thing we can say with absolute certainty! The largest solar storm was not caused by climate change. Welcome back and thank you for your effort to keep us up to date. Take care and be safe!!
Thanks, Johann!
Re the solar storm, yes – it’d be almost ironic at this point if civilisation were collapsed by some intervention not of our own making.
Yes, now those in denial can point to the solar storm as the culprit to our perial…
The Next Big Solar Storm Could Fry the Grid
https://www.wsj.com/science/environment/solar-storm-early-warning-system-b6324524
Scientists are using artificial intelligence to better predict what the sun will do and give Earth more warning to protect satellites and electronics
A coronal mass ejection, or CME, erupts from the Sun, sending a cloud of charged particles hurtling into space. VIDEO: NASA/GSFC/SDO
By Christopher MimsFollow WSJ
Hello Pan
Because insurance is too expensive we’ll just make it a ‘Las Vegas’ attraction. I saw a docu about it because speculating on ‘weather extremes’ is often the only way for cities like New York to give themselves any affordable semblance of ‘safety’ at all. But yes unaffordable it is going to be.
When I went to the ‘collective’ rubbish bin in my village yesterday, there was an announcement from the municipality that Chadron had been officially declared a ‘natural disaster area’ due to the drought that had caused severe cracks and subsidence at a number of houses built on clay soil.
In cases like that, as an owner occupant, you only get ‘compensation’ if your village is declared a ‘natural disaster’ area. On my site, I also hear more and more members who have to deal with this kind of now annual huge damage.
The problem is that they are announcing heavy rainfall for sometime late next week which is known here as ‘period Cevenol’ Rising warm air from the Mediterranean collides with a polar upper layer. Gives precipitation up to 250/300mm in a 24-hour period and flooding etc etc. And then the clay soil swells again and then it shrinks again next year. Goes to an estimated half!!! Of all French homes on the campaign due threatened. Billions in damages were claimed from insurers last year…..
Pay close attention Pan if buying a house in France, my house is on ‘rocky ground with only a thin layer of earth 🙂 Lots of spraying in summer though.
https://www.60millions-mag.com/2023/06/15/fissures-plus-d-une-maison-sur-deux-est-menacee-par-la-secheresse-21626
Thank you for the heads up, Zip, although snapping up a house in France is, sadly, not on my to-do list. Would that it were!
“Because insurance is too expensive we’ll just make it a ‘Las Vegas’ attraction.”
The financial system is an absurdity really – an unimaginably complex system made up of nothing more substantial than IOU’s and games of chance, and held together by wraiths like trust and optimism. Those last two intangibles soon to disappear like mist in the morning sun, I fear.
Thanx, Harry.
You are welcome, Kathi. ❤
“… disappear like mist in the morning sun,” I just visualized that.
Breaking news! Shit has hit the fan! AGW is affecting one’s personal economics! Wonder if that will be an attention getter?
To paraphrase the Rolling Stones –
You can’t always get what you want but sometimes you get what you deserve.
This old codger recently got hearing aids. The problem now, is that I hear all the BS from Clever Apes & Main Slime Media more clearly. 😉
Main Slime Media. 😆
“This old codger recently got hearing aids. The problem now, is that I hear all the BS from Clever Apes & Main Slime Media more clearly.”
At least you have the consolation of music, TR. I find that helps me a lot.
Clever Apes are the cleverest.
Hamas couldn’t break into a panic room. No problem, they burned the house down.
Jews said they can top that.
A Palestinian father & son were killed by Israeli settlers at a Palestinian funeral.
What’s funnier is the species has committed suicide, total numbers not available yet.
I find this amazing and significant from one of Panopticon’s links:
“Could anthropogenic CC result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? This is a dangerously underexplored topic.”
When I clicked through, I saw that this Diana Urge was elected as a Vice Chair of the IPCC this summer. To me it really says how far gone we are if a friggin’ IPPC leader is even mentioning HUMAN EXTINCTION!
All our years of watching our train wreck build up speed are paying off lol. Make sure to have a big stash of popcorn on hand.
(And I really think Gail Z, Benjamin, Michael D and other beloved fellow doomers who have passed on to whatever is next are lucky because it’s getting increasingly painful to watch all that is happening, popcorn not withstanding. And I have not even been personally impacted terribly yet.)
Cassandra, thank you for pointing that out re Diane Urge-Vorsatz. I had spotted who she was when I harvested that comment from Twitter but then promptly got distracted by other things.
I had a brief look through her feed and there are a few other refreshingly “off message” posts, for example a link to an article that states: “Electrifying everything for #netzero is not as easy as we often think… “Lufthansa says it would consume half of Germany’s electricity if it were to switch to green fuels.”