“Over 100 days of continuous record surface air temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere.
“Temperature is now +1.42°C above the 1979-2000 mean, which is about 2°C above 1850-1900.”
“It is clear that the anomalously high global temperatures of the past four months (above the global warming trend) can’t be explained by El Niño, if we take past El Niño events as examples.”
“At first glance, it seems the recent spike in global temps was similar to 2016. But upon further inspection, the spike in 2016 came many months later at El Niño max.
“So although much of the spike this year is switch from 3 La Nina’s to El Niño, something is still missing.”
“This map from Climatologist49 shows that the record warmest temperatures are in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, & tropical Pacific, as well as the Indian Ocean and the Kuroshio Extension region off Japan.
“So it seems to be related to SST anomalies, but outside the Nino 3.4 region.”
“Record heat unleashes deadly floods from New York to Libya.
“Cities around the world have seen record rainfall 139 times in 2023… Soaring temperatures were at the root of all these weather calamities. June, July and August were the hottest ever for that period. Higher air temperatures mean the atmosphere can hold more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall, while record-hot oceans provide fuel for storms.”
[image is of hay bales being washed down the River Aray].“Scottish farmers say they’ve suffered some of the biggest losses in food crops the industry has ever seen as a result of the weekend’s flooding
“NFU Scotland said millions of pounds worth of unharvested vegetables have been damaged by flood waters described as unprecedented for the time of year.”
“The Government has no evidence to back up a recent claim it made saying the UK is on track to meet its internationally-agreed targets on improving nature, campaigners have said.
“After the Wildlife and Countryside Link (WCL) found there to be just over 3% of land and up to 8% of sea protected for nature – when the target is 30%.”
“Northern Ireland has recorded its warmest October day in 50 years after temperatures hit 22.5C [72.5F] in Co Fermanagh on Sunday.
“The mercury reached the unseasonably hot temperature in Derrylin… Last month was Northern Ireland’s joint warmest September on record and the joint warmest for the whole of the UK.”
“Record-breaking autumn heat fuels giant pumpkin bonanza [England].
“But climate scientists express concern over global temperature records and the impact on tree health amidst unseasonable warmth… Climate scientists have expressed shock about the unseasonably hot September, which has broken global records.”
“Summer-like temperatures are set to continue throughout this week in France. It comes after over 150 October heat records were broken on Sunday.
“Hundreds of weather stations recorded highs above 30C (in the shade), with the mercury reaching 34C [93.2F] in Creuse.”
“October is off a to historically warm start over much of Europe after its hottest September on record. And the next several days promise more record heat.
“So far this month, thousands of locations have set calendar day record highs, and scores have also set records for the entire month of October. Spain, France, Poland, Austria and Slovenia [now Croatia, too] all posted their highest October temperatures.”
“Spanish drought to press Europe’s olive oil supply further.
“A second consecutive year of drought in southern Spain will keep the country’s olive oil production below average in 2023/24, meaning the European Union faces another year of high prices, official data showed… Spain, the world’s top olive oil producer, usually supplies about 40% of global output…”
“Persistent drought strains Morocco’s economic prospects…
“Morocco has suffered five consecutive years of drought and officials and analysts say climate change is one of the biggest threats facing the kingdom. In the past, occasional droughts were followed by years of plentiful rains. Now, however, the country is widely considered to have entered an era of water scarcity…”
“Death toll in Cameroon landslide rises to 30, rescue efforts continuing.
“Rescuers pulled out three more bodies later Monday after landslides in Cameroon’s capital of Yaounde buried homes and buildings Sunday, bringing the death toll of the disaster to 30… The landslides occurred at 8 p.m., local time, Sunday in the hilly neighborhood of Mbankolo in Yaounde after a persistent downpour.”
“Ethiopian drought and child marriage – in portraits…
“Girls in parts of the country hit by drought and food shortages are increasingly being forced into child marriage, with rates rising by 119% in 2022. Bone-dry water sources, decimated crops and dying livestock have combined with vicious conflict to make early marriage a threat to them.”
“Over 100,000 displaced by flash floods in southwest Somalia.
“Flash floods caused by heavy rains on Wednesday have displaced 107,000 people in the Baidoa district in southwestern Somalia… The local authorities in Baidoa are preparing a response and have appealed to humanitarian partners and the international community to support the emergency needs…”
“Lockdown returns to Zimbabwe as health experts try to bring cholera outbreak under control…
“All public gatherings are banned in the southeastern Zaka district if they do not have official approval, while people have been discouraged from shaking hands, eating at gatherings and buying food from unlicensed vendors in the capital, Harare. Almost 5,000 suspected new cases of cholera have been recorded since late last month…”
[a mining region, pictured] in Mozambique and 42.5C at Mababe in Botswana (1000m asl).“Harsh heat wave in Southern Africa with temperatures up to 43.8C [110.8F] at Tete
“Record heat again in the Mauritius: 34.0C [93.2F] at Agalega Island is the new October heat record for Mauritius.”
“Joburg residents struggle with water shortages amid heatwave.
“Johannesburg residents have taken to social media to air their frustration over ongoing water interruptions. Some parts of the city remain with low-pressure water, while some areas’ taps are completely dry, as Gauteng continues to grapple with a looming water crisis.”
“Toxic storms blamed on climate change cloud Tajikistan.
““I can’t stop coughing. I’m fed up with this dust choking me,” Munira Khushkadamova, a teacher, said during a visit to the Sofia clinic in Dushanbe… “In the 1990s, there were two or three sand and dust storms per year in Tajikistan. Now there can be up to 35…””
“Death toll from flash floods in Indian Himalayas climbs to 74 with at least 100 still missing.
“Following days of torrential rain in the northeastern state of Sikkim, torrents of water swept down narrow river valleys from Lohnak Lake, in the northern part of the state, damaging a dam and wreaking destruction in villages and Rangpo town…”
[parts of Myanmar saw 8 inches – a record for October].“Heavy flooding in southern Myanmar displaces more than 10,000 people
“Flooding triggered by heavy monsoon rains in Myanmar’s southern areas has displaced more than 14,000 people and disrupted traffic on the rail lines that connect the country’s biggest cities, officials and state-run media said Monday.”
“Three people died and one person was missing following flash floods and landslides in northern Vietnam over the weekend, disaster officials said on Monday…
“Natural disasters including floods and landslides, have left 98 people dead or missing, and injured 103 others in Vietnam since the beginning of the year.”
“Losses from China disasters reach $42 billion in first nine months of 2023…
“The emergency management ministry unveiled on Sunday the unprecedented toll wrought on the nation of 1.4 billion by calamities that ranged from sandstorms to rains that brought massive flooding and historic rainfall in Beijing, the capital.”
“Hong Kong halts trading, closes schools post-typhoon…
“The storm caused non-stop rain overnight, leading the agency to issue a “black” rainstorm warning signal — its highest… rainfall exceeded 300 millimetres [12 inches] over some parts of urban Hong Kong island, data showed… In early September, Hong Kong experienced its highest rainfall [on record].”
“Records are falling all over Asia.
“SINGAPORE: 36.3 Admiralty new official national monthly record; 38.7 INDONESIA 0.8C from national all time high; INDIA: 33.6 Bhuntar; 31.0 Dharamshala; EMIRATES: 43.6 Ras al Khaimah SAUDI: Tmin 33.0 [91.4F] Makkah HIGHEST OCTOBER TMIN IN SAUDI HISTORY.”
“Australians are being warned the next seven months could bring severe heatwaves and bushfires to large swathes of the country.
“The Bureau of Meteorology said in its latest climate outlook that an El Nino weather pattern on the east coast combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole on the west could bring extreme heat between October and April.”
“West Maui starts reopening to tourists as thousands still displaced after wildfires: “A lot of mixed emotions”…
“More than 2,000 buildings, the majority of them homes, were destroyed in the fire. In some cases, multiple families were living under one roof. Today, thousands of people are still displaced, being shuffled from one temporary location to another.”
“HISTORIC in Peru.
“On 7 October the AWS of Iñapari rose to 41.6C [106.9F] breaking the ALL TIME NATIONAL HEAT RECORD again. It has been months of unstoppable record heat in South America. Tomorrow new heat wave with 43/44C in Paraguay and Bolivia. More bad news: Around mid month THE HELL.”
“Argentina may suffer massive losses in wheat yields due to drought.
“Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange warned on Oct. 5 that the country’s core agricultural farmland could suffer huge losses in wheat yields due to drought, Nasdaq reported citing Reuters. Last season’s drought hammered harvests, halving the country’s wheat output from the 23 million tons produced the previous year.”
“‘Without water, there is no life’: Drought in Brazil’s Amazon is sharpening fears for the future…
“Raimundo Silva do Carmo, 67, makes his living as a fisherman, but these days has been struggling to simply find water. Like most rural residents in Brazil’s Amazon, do Carmo typically retrieves water untreated from the biome’s abundant waterways.”
“Rains and floods lead 67 cities in Santa Catarina [SE Brazil] to declare emergency.
“The state of Santa Catarina has 132 municipalities with several occurrences due to the heavy rains that have hit the state since last week. According to the Civil Defense bulletin, released on Monday (9), 67 municipalities have already declared a state of emergency.”
“Endless record heat in the Caribbeans:
“On 2 October US VIRGIN ISLANDS tied the October record heat with 94F/34.4C at St. Croix. Today SABA beat for the 4th time in 9 days the territorial October record with 32.9C. It’ll get worse/hotter.”
“Tensions Rise in the Rio Grande Basin as Mexico Lags in Water Deliveries to the U.S.
“In 2020, rebellious Mexican farmers occupied a dam in parched Chihuahua state to prevent the federal government from sending its reservoir water to Texas under a 1944 treaty. With the clock ticking toward another treaty deadline, the two sides are struggling for a solution.”
“Another Mississippi River record [low]!
“Previous record was last October, with a depth of -10.75′. Tough break for farmers to see significant reductions in barge transport of crops during the peak part of harvest season 2 years in a row. Barges carry about 60% of U.S. grain exports.”
“It was the wettest summer on record for Wyoming — what does this mean?
“It was the wettest summer on record for Wyoming — at least since meteorologists began keeping track in 1895… Natoli said this relief is separate from the 23-year “megadrought” that has plagued the West. “In terms of canceling out the losses of the last 20 years, we unfortunately did not even get close,” he said.”
“Extreme Weather Disrupts U.S. Oil And Gas Sector…
“This kind of extreme weather plays a significant part in the volatility in the oil and gas sector, resulting in prices, supply and demand often swinging drastically from hour to hour. While shorter than recessions, weather events have super-sized effects on the entire oil and gas supply chain.”
“According to the International Centre for Waterspout Research, Saturday, Oct. 7, was a record-breaking day on Lake Erie with more than 180 waterspouts spotted.
“Residents of northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania spotted dozens of waterspouts over Lake Erie. In total, there were more than 180 reports of waterspouts.”
“Wildfires in Alberta could burn all winter: official.
“The end of October marks the official end to the province’s wildfire season, but Mother Nature does not follow a calendar. As of Monday afternoon, 87 wildfires were burning in Alberta with one still deemed out of control in the High Level Forest Area.”
“Heat Waves in the Ground Are Getting More Extreme—and Perilous.
“Scientists are racing to understand the consequences… This proliferation of heat could have major implications for the intricate natural systems that grow our food, process water, and even sequester carbon. At a certain point, warming soils could actually contribute to higher air temperatures, in a gnarly sort of climatic feedback loop.”
“Climate-driven extreme heat may make parts of Earth too hot for humans.
“If global temperatures increase by 1° Celsius (C) or more than current levels, each year billions of people will be exposed to heat and humidity so extreme they will be unable to naturally cool themselves, according to interdisciplinary research from the Penn State College of Health and Human Development…”
“Atmospheric Methane: Comparison Between Methane’s Record in 2006–2022 and During Glacial Terminations…
“…recent changes may be comparable or greater in scale and speed than methane’s growth and isotopic shift during past glacial/interglacial termination events. It ….is possible that methane’s recent growth and isotopic shift may indicate a large-scale reorganization of the natural climate and biosphere is under way.”
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
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