Huge thanks to August’s sponsor, who wishes to remain anonymous. At his request, I’m sharing a link to his brief but fascinating essay about Shakespeare’s The Tempest and the origins of Britain’s enslavement of Africans. He welcomes feedback in the comments section.
“In this paper, the key point is that the Earth Energy Imbalance has been increasing faster than previously expected, supporting the possibility that the climate may be more sensitive to greenhouse gases than earlier estimates suggested.
“EEI is increasingly more positive, which means Earth is gaining more energy faster. That excess energy is mostly stored in the oceans and that drives continued warming.” [new paper, as summarised on X by Jeff Berardelli]
https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.177245874.45134681/v2
“Breaking News!
“2026 has now broken the record for most days over 17.0°C, reaching that mark for the 19th time on August 16th. This beats the previous record of 18 days set way back in 2024.
“Will 2026 see a 20th day above 17.0°C?” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2089681881285718374
“In order for 2026 to average 1.60°C above pre-industrial, the rest of the year starting today has to average 1.84°C above pre-industrial.
“And yet, that’s the forecast.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2090091036525936668
“Quick El Niño update.
“The most recent Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature for August 17th was 2.73°C above the 1991-2020 average. This marked the 80th consecutive day setting a new record daily high, and was 0.92°C above the previous record for the day set back in 1997.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2089730859666694161
“I did the math on this, and the combined Nino regions right now have about 60% more absolute excess heat than the 1997 El Niño.
“That’s a huge jump in 30 years.” [Jeff Berardelli]
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2090148201307234439
“The Strongest El Niño on Record Lands on the Tightest Energy Market in Years…
“The real damage is on the supply side: hydropower, solar output, reactor cooling and Panama Canal drafts, all hitting a system Hormuz has already stripped of slack.”
“Giant whales move into Greenland waters as ice disappears…
“That is the conclusion of a decades-long study that has recorded – and filmed – hundreds of the world’s biggest whales including humpbacks, minke and fin whales, feeding in ice-free seas along the coast in summer. None of these marine mammals were historically found here…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq6dn9gj7eno
“Extreme drought is changing Britain’s wildlife – and some effects won’t be seen until next year…
“In some parts of the world, species have evolved to adapt to extreme heat and drought. However in Britain, which has a history of cold winters, cool summers and abundant rain, there hasn’t been any pressure to evolve such adaptations.”
“North Sea reaches warmest temperature ever recorded in Dutch waters.
“The North Sea reached a record-high average temperature of 21.5 degrees [70.7F] over the weekend, according to the KNMI… The record was measured at the Goeree Light Island, a monitoring platform located roughly 30 kilometers off the coast of Hoek van Holland.”
https://nltimes.nl/2026/08/20/north-sea-reaches-warmest-temperature-ever-recorded-dutch-waters
“Climate change is driving record heat in Europe’s seas, scientists say.
“Human-caused climate change has added about 2C of warming to the Mediterranean and around 1.4C to Western European seas… “This has the potential to completely reshape ecosystems that coastal communities rely on for food and income, and drive damaging extreme weather on land too,” said Claire Bergin…”
“France measures more than 7,300 excess deaths – and counting – during historic heatwaves.
“More than 7,300 excess deaths have been recorded in France over the historically hot summer as Europe grapples with worsening heatwaves, wildfires and droughts… France has suffered a record-breaking 52 days of heatwaves since mid-June…”
“In drought-stricken France, tankers supply drinking water.
“Since early August, huge silver tanker trucks have been paying a visit to the town of Sainte-Marie-aux-Mines in Alsace, eastern France, twice a week. They aren’t delivering heating oil or milk, but drinking water from the nearby town of Liepvre.”
“Amid extreme heat, water grows scarce around Berlin.
“For years, Petra Liesenfeld has witnessed falling groundwater levels in her hometown of Baruth. She has to water her garden far more often than she used to, and has seen some local trees completely dry out. At the same time, two beverage companies are looking to expand production in the area.”
https://www.dw.com/en/amid-extreme-heat-water-grows-scarce-around-berlin/a-78428993
“Lake Zurich sees water level hit record low amid drought…
“The water level in the lake, which extends southeast of Switzerland’s biggest city, on Wednesday did not exceed 404.45 metres above sea level, falling below the previous record of 405.46 metres, measured there in 1952, a year after measurements began at the station.”
“‘Climate Camp’ trains kids for future droughts in Hungary…
“Since 2021, the Balastya Motivation School in the village of Balastya has made climate education a key part of its extra-curricular program. Students learn about climate science and practical ways people can confront the climate crisis, lessen its effects, and adapt to the changes we are already seeing.”
“Fires erupt on Greek island of Corfu, several parts of mainland…
“Seven water-bombing aircraft were flying sorties to help 20 firefighters and five fire engines tame a blaze burning through forest and farmland near the village of Temploni in northern Corfu, the Kathimerini newspaper reported, citing the Fire Service.”
“A two-day severe weather outbreak is expected across the western, central, and northern Mediterranean.
“Multiple rounds of intense supercells and multicells are forecast from eastern Spain across the Balearic Islands, southern France, Switzerland, Austria, north-central Italy, Slovenia, and Croatia. Large hail, severe winds, torrential flooding rain, and tornadoes are possible.”
https://x.com/severeweatherEU/status/2090220434939695323
“The Balearic Sea is warming and has set a new temperature record…
“The series of temperature records being set in the Balearic Sea is no longer just a scientific anomaly; it has become a cause for concern across all sectors, from environmental conservation to port management and tourism planning.”
“Portuguese men o’ war plague Europe’s warming beaches…
“Sightings of unwelcome jellyfish in Europe this year have coincided with a historic marine heatwave in the region and increased interest from researchers in the species’ ability to thrive in oceans warmed by climate change.”
https://www.ft.com/content/41c9e4c9-4d02-4ad5-b31f-afef9cd0346e?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“EXCEPTIONAL WINTER HEAT – hotter and hotter in this insane winter heat wave in Southern Africa Highlands.
“In particular, Gobabis NAMIBIA at over 1400m asl rose to 36.7C [98.1F], pulverizing its record of winter highest temperature in history with another summer-like max.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2090098291551736007
“Mass sardine die-off: new threat to African Penguins?
“Seabird researchers and marine scientists are watching anxiously to see whether the mass death of sardines along the Cape coastline may have a ripple effect on the already critically endangered African Penguin population… The current sardine die-off in South African waters could be partly the result of a viral infection…”
https://www.capetownetc.com/conservation/mass-sardine-die-off-new-threat-to-african-penguins/
“Sudan war: 200,000 newly displaced as fighting and floods intensify…
“Heavy rainfall in North Darfur destroyed or damaged nearly 1,350 shelters in Tawila’s sprawling camps last week, displacing more than 1,000 families. Additional flooding in the towns of Kabkabiya and Shangil Tobaya – also in North Darfur – forced dozens of families into temporary shelters.”
https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/08/1168165
“Nairobi Shivers as Atlantic Currents Drive Unusual August Cold Spell.
“Meteorologists attribute Nairobi’s biting August chill to Southern Hemisphere winter systems and the Benguela current, warning highland residents to prepare for sustained low temperatures through late August.”
“Super El Niño: Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia brace for torrential rains.
“… the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has forecasted an 81% probability of a powerful “Super El Niño” driving torrential rainfall and potential flooding in Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia. This climate event, driven by warming Pacific waters, echoes severe historical patterns from 1985, 1997, 2015, and 2023–2024.”
“PMD issues flood alert for Leh Nullah as heavy rains continue to batter Rawalpindi and Islamabad [Pakistan]…
“The department said that 122mm of rainfall had been recorded at Shamsabad, 121mm at Kutcheri Chowk, 119mm at Kattarian, 118mm at Pirwadhai, 100mm at Zero Point, 100mm at Bokra, 95mm at Saidpur and 94mm in Golra.”
https://www.dawn.com/news/2023858
“Pakistan’s ‘red chili capital’ faces a climate crisis threatening its signature crop.
“In a country where ‘food is chili and everything else is an addition,’ extreme heat, floods and rising production costs are threatening one of Pakistan’s most iconic crops and the livelihoods of thousands of farmers.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/environment/article/sjzoj0fvgg
“The Drying Tears of the Himalayas: Why Kashmir’s Water Crisis is a Warning to the World.
“518 out of 697 lakes in Jammu and Kashmir have either completely vanished or significantly shrunk due to pollution and urban encroachment… Crucial high-altitude glaciers, such as the Thajwas Glacier, have experienced an estimated 17% area loss, drastically cutting summer water supplies.”
“Ladakh glaciers losing speed as ice melts, new study warns.
“Glacier velocity in the Zanskar Himalayas dropped 16% between 1992 and 2023, with the slowdown accompanied by accelerated ice thinning. Glaciers at lower elevations lost speed faster than those higher up. The slowdown signals reduced water security for the rain-shadow region of Ladakh…”
https://india.mongabay.com/2026/08/ladakh-glaciers-losing-speed-as-ice-melts-new-study-warns/
“RECORD HEAT IN INDIA. Records of August High Maxes and High Mins fall regularly in Southern India these days.
“Last records: MAX – 39.8 [103.6F] Vellore; HIGH MINS – 30.2 Thanjavur, 29.8 Nellore, 29.7 Tirupathi.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2089866899261641213
“Prayagraj Flood Situation Worsens As Ganga Water Levels Continue To Rise [central eastern India]…
“Homes and roads near the riverbanks are under water, disrupting daily life and forcing residents to move to safer, higher ground. Authorities have advised people living in vulnerable areas to remain alert and evacuate if water levels rise further.”
“Arunachal cloudburst leaves 5 soldiers missing [NE India, on Chinese border].
“A cloudburst and landslide in Arunachal Pradesh’s Dibang Valley district have left seven Army personnel missing, including Agniveer soldier Aditya Kumar from Hajipur, Bihar. Two personnel have been rescued, but several days after the incident, there is still no information about Aditya’s whereabouts.”
“5 killed, 17 injured in rain shelter collapse as torrential rainfall batters SW China’s Sichuan, leading to relocation of 21,784.
“According to the office of the geological disaster prevention and control command of Sichuan Province, heavy to torrential rain hit areas such as Chengdu and Zigong in Sichuan, with some areas experiencing extreme heavy rain.”
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202608/1368541.shtml
“Japan’s Urban Vulnerabilities Exposed by Torrential Downpours in Chiba Prefecture.
“Floodwater …inundated the basements of residential complexes, medical facilities and commercial buildings, submerging electrical equipment and triggering prolonged power outages. Chiba University Hospital canceled all surgeries Wednesday after pumps draining the basement broke down…”
https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/general-news/20260820-344515/
“Geoje, Tongyeong Mobilize Full-Scale Recovery After Historic Floods.
“A full-scale emergency recovery effort is underway to restore daily life for residents of Geoje and Tongyeong in South Gyeongsang Province, which suffered severe damage from “extreme heavy rain” exceeding 900 mm [35 inches] during the National Liberation Day holiday.”
https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2026/08/19/ADBLYBO2CFD5BA3B3RPKFE3FVY/
“Nan floods kill 2 and affect more than 16,000 people [Thailand]…
“The first fatality was a bedridden resident who could not evacuate without assistance and lived with their mother in Moo 8 of Sila Phet subdistrict, Pua district. The victim was swept from the house by fast-moving floodwater and later found dead.”
https://www.nationthailand.com/news/general/40070012
“How an ‘unprecedented’ super El Nino could reshape extreme weather for 12 of Asia’s biggest cities.
“Some of Asia’s largest cities are likely to face months of drought while others could be hit by flooding when a “super” El Niño weather event develops later this year, according to research that warns it has no precedent on record.”
“Southeast Asia Haze Risk Rises as Indonesia’s Fire Hotspots Jump.
“The number of fire hotspots across Indonesia has surged to the highest level in more than a decade, raising the prospect of severe wildfires and choking haze as El Niño leads to drier conditions in the region.”
“More and more heat records in Malaysia and Indonesia:
“MALAYSIA – 35.3C Kota Bharu; INDONESIA – 35.6 [96.1F] Palembang. Both broke their August highest temperature records.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2090056402551087494
“Australia braces for bushfires in almost every state as El Niño strengthens.
“Professor Bowman said the heat that comes with a warming climate was particularly dangerous alongside El Nino… “I have every reason to believe that we will see equally extraordinary fires. If it’s not this summer, it’s certainly going to be in the next,” he said.”
“More than 1,000 birds found dead in three mass mortality events amid ‘significant’ H5 escalation in Australia.
“The South Australian premier, Peter Malinauskas, has declared a “significant escalation” in H5 bird flu in the state after the detection of three mass mortality events involving more than 1,000 greater crested terns.”
“Three quarters of Indo-Pacific coral reefs could drown as sea levels rise.
“Most coral reefs across the Indo-Pacific will not be able to grow fast enough to keep up with accelerating sea-level rise, according to a new study, raising the risk that reefs could become submerged and lose their ability to protect coastlines.”
“Four tropical systems may be simultaneously swirling in the Pacific by early next week.
“More threats loom for the Northern Mariana Islands, Hawaii and eastern Asia as the storm train shifts into high gear because of El Niño and a marine heat wave.” [Ben Noll]
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2089721479013531731
“US to send hospital ship to Peru as El Nino threat looms.
“The United States will send a military hospital ship to Peru’s Pacific coast next year to help Peru cope with the effects of the El Nino climate phenomenon as part of a broader collaboration with the South American country, U.S. Ambassador to Peru Bernie Navarro announced Wednesday.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/el-nino-peru-lima-pacific-colombia-b3036047.html
“Mudslides hit northern Chile after extraordinary desert rains…
“The most severe situation was reported in Tocopilla, a coastal city of about 25,000 people in the Antofagasta region. Videos posted on social media showed mudslides flooding large parts of the area, sweeping away vehicles and cutting off roads.”
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/08/19/latam-chile-mudslides-desert-rains/4651787162674/
“RECORD RAINFALLS ON THE [USUALLY ARID] CHILEAN COAST!
“IQUIQUE – 16.0 mm/8 days [11.2 mm/3 days] = 20 times the annual rainfall [0.8 mm]! WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD [since 1981]; ARICA – 13.5 mm = 6 times the annual rainfall [2.3 mm]! 15.1 mm in 2026 = WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD [since 1963].” [Thierry Goose]
https://x.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/2090260985777131770
“Record again in the US VIRGIN ISLANDS.
“Another Minimum of 28.9C/84F which ties again the hottest August night ever recorded in the territory.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2089513116212122068
“Miami hit an all-time record on Tuesday. It’s more significant than you think.
“Miami tied its all-time high temperature of 100 degrees Fahrenheit on Tuesday, amid a sprawling heat wave that is affecting areas from Texas to the Southeast. The heat wave, caused by a stalled-out heat dome, continues on Wednesday.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/08/19/weather/miami-record-high-temperature-climate
“Sargassum seaweed covers Miami Beach amid a record bloom in 2026.
“Sargassum seaweed piles up along the coast of Miami Beach in Florida, as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warns that 2026 could bring the largest sargassum bloom ever recorded in South Florida.”
“I’ve seen enough. August 2026 is going to be the hottest August on record for the contiguous U.S. — and probably by a significant margin.
“Through August 17, PRISM has the CONUS running +2.37°F above the 1991–2020 average. The standing record? +1.99°F in 1983.” [The Global Warmer]
https://x.com/TheGlobalWarmer/status/2089893450246127691
“Human remains have once again been discovered at Lake Mead outside Las Vegas, Nevada, marking the latest in a line of gruesome discoveries as water levels in the crucial reservoir continue to drop, authorities said.
“These remains were discovered on 16 August, USA Today reported.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/19/lake-mead-human-remains
“Nevada warns feds: Don’t make Las Vegas pay for Colorado River crisis.
“Nevada’s water managers are pleading their case to the Trump administration before it hands down a final Colorado River operating agreement that may see states fight in the US supreme court…”
“Firefighters sound alarm as US faces critical staffing shortage: ‘We don’t have enough people’…
“Several people familiar with internal hiring data at the agency said there were also large gaps in important leadership roles, which had caused bottlenecks and operational challenges during a busy and dangerous year.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/19/us-firefighters-staffing-shortage
“‘There was just no way to stop it’ | Hoosier farmers reeling from record rainfall, historic flooding.
“Many communities across Indiana have been dealing with the impact of historic flooding. It’s affecting not just homeowners and businesses, but also Hoosier farmers. Many farm fields were underwater, crops ruined.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-news/articles/just-no-way-stop-hoosier-215321831.html
“Alberta sees wildfire-free August after record rainfall.
“In August 2026, Alberta recorded its first completely wildfire-free day in 40 years within the province’s Forest Protection Area. This highly unusual, temporary milestone was officially declared by Alberta Wildfire after historical data confirmed how rare a zero-active-fire status is during peak summer.”
“Alaska in 2026 has been sidelined by the above average temperatures of most of North America, but this month has seen a warm spell.
“Among the records, we can mention the August monthly record of 85F set at Juneau Airport on the 14th.” [Rick Thoman via Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2090186653298036892
“The threatening thaw: climate professor on heatwave risks to tipping point of permafrost.
“Heatwaves and wildfires are not just scorching forests, they are adding to the tipping point risks in the world’s vast permafrost regions, which contain three times more carbon than all the living vegetation on Earth…”
“Climate doom may discourage climate action, but there’s a way to counter it.
“Climate doom can be a powerful argument for doing nothing. If people believe the climate crisis is already beyond repair, they may conclude that efforts to cut emissions or adapt to a changing world are pointless.”
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“Climate doom can be a powerful argument for doing nothing. If people believe the climate crisis is already beyond repair, they may conclude that efforts to cut emissions or adapt to a changing world are pointless.”
I think I’m beginning to understand why so many climate activist types nowadays want to equate street theater with direct action. They go to the kind of schools where giving out grades is considered a form of oppression. Compare that to the anarchist anti-globalist movements of the 90s constituted by the lower-middle-class, lumpen and working-class. Or hell, why not good ol’ Teddy? Even if climate action was not the exclusive focus of their efforts, they did far more to bring awareness to those issues than Greta Thunberg “flight shaming” rich people who applaud her courage then throw spare change at her orgs as a token of their masochistic appreciation.
Meanwhile pipelines and refineries are being blown up by people and groups with serious geopolitical and class interests to defend or advance by doing so. It’s a shame most radical climate activists, despite their cherished self-awareness, are oblivious to the world-historical irony of that.
Jupiviv, I guess as long as the activism is heartfelt, even if it looks performative, then I can sympathise with it.
I do get the odd pang of guilt for having basically bypassed activism, going straight from mindless consumer to doomer.
The correct response to climate doom is prep up. The population bottleneck will not select for anything else.
That’s correct response for those who want to tryto survive the bottleneck. That’s not everyone.
UAE weather forecast: Why Dubai’s 44°C is feeling like 51°C today –
https://www.emirates247.com/uae/uae-weather-forecast-why-dubais-44c-is-feeling-like-51c-today/4680
Above 40 celsius and 90% humidity, sustained, these are the conditions in a Turkish bath house! At 90% the survivable limit for all ages is 35.
A good pictorial summary of where we are: 14 Charts on Planetary Heating –
https://www.collapse2050.com/14-charts-on-planetary-heating/
The last chart can be extrapolated, assuming a quadratic or exponential, to indicate heating is likely to be over one degree in the next decade, and therefore three degrees warming before 2040 is highly likely. Could be sign of rapid flip to hot house (see link below for good ecoshock radio episode).
Will food insecurity spark ‘large-scale conflict? – Yes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KfV61pTkpE
Ecoshock radio: Hippos in London: Rising Methane & “Termination Event”
https://www.ecoshock.org/2026/08/hippos-in-london-rising-methane-termination-event-2.html
“If you put a lot of heat in the ocean you’re going to get a new climate.” – Surface ocean temperatures have taken off in the last four years and as there is 14 times as much heat capacity in the top 50 metres of seas than the whole of the atmosphere transferring 0.1 degrees would heat the air by 1.4.
“Methane is telling us something is happening … it does look awfully like previous terminations … awfully quickly …”
On the Eliot Jacbsen climatebrink comment – November and December look likely to be around 2 degrees so September and October would only need to be around 1.65 to 1.7, which looks pretty certain, starting Tuesday last with 1.65.
Also the oil futures prices are zooming up and Trump might have run out of ideas, or just lost interest, to come up with something that traders can’t risk ignoring to induce a weekend sell off.
Thanks for both comments, George. Looks like Truth Wizard is right about 2040, though I suspect most of us won’t make it anywhere near that long.
Nice round-ups, George. You’ll do me out of a job! 😆
Funnily enough, I watched the “Will food insecurity spark ‘large-scale conflict?” video on YouTube last night. Prof Tim Benton is a man after my own heart, connecting the dots across different domains.
3C warming… The wheels will, as Cassandra implies, have come off well in advance of that.
I wonder what it was like for the scientists who wrote the paper I lead with today when they realised that their findings were corroborating Hansen’s paleo-climatological work, and that every projection in every IPCC report is therefore systematically too optimistic. I’m imagining some stiff drinks were consumed.
The thing I still don’t understand and haven’t seen any scientist or blogger comment, so there is a constant niggle that I am missing something, is that the NOAA AGGI index already shows that we are just about at double CO2 equivalent. We are warming pretty quickly so even without further emissions the minimum we are going to get to is the sensitivity number. Only aerosols are keeping us cool, and the cloud feedback and (probably) stratification are more than enough to overcome that soon. But no one is saying this, why – asking for a friend.
Also four links is my limit, how you do 50+ every day is a wonder.
George, I’d need to properly ponder/research your comment but, at first glance, I don’t think you are wrong.
Re the links, it’s fine if there are no distractions but of course life’s not like that, so it can mean a hectic start to the day. 😅
Because CO2 and CO2-equivalent concentrations are fundamentally different metrics. The first metric is just your regular CO2 ambient concentrations measured with physical instruments, while the second describes the amount of forcing non-CO2 GHGs are adding on top of CO2’s forcing as if they were CO2. Consequently, a doubling in CO2 and a doubling in CO2eq is not the same thing: since the latter of which includes GHGs with drastically different atmospheric lifespans, this must be accounted for during conversion by choosing an appropriate, timescale-dependent GWP value for each GHG.
This also has implications on estimates of how much Earth will warm in the near future based solely on metrics like ECS, which also includes feedbacks acting on geological timescales like heat exchange with the deep ocean, vegetation change etc. and is relevant for geological timescales, and CO2eq, since most SLCFs will be “gone” after a century or so, which is in turn reflected in their GWP values. TCR (“a change in GMST averaged over 2 decades, centered at the time of CO2 doubling”) is somewhat more fit for this purpose, but it also has shortcomings (it’s an emergent property of ESM simulations). Personally, I think 3°C by 2040 is rather unlikely, even by German Physics Society risk assessments. A warming rate of 1°C/decade would require an enormous additional climate forcing precisely at the time when anthropogenic emissions will be tipping into permanent decline, with all the implications thereof. Yet without mechanistic explanation, it’s pretty much anyone’s guess.
Thank you, Nobody, for clarifying that distinction.
One wild card that could see us get close to 3C by 2040 is an aerosol termination shock from a rapid collapse scenario, if that occurred at the end of 2039. I think it will happen sooner, so…
To be honest, that’s actually the scenario (you could even call it an “emissions pathway” if you were a meanie) I’d like to see modeled. Granted, what follows is pure speculation, but a rapid collapse entails a near instantaneous drop of anthropogenic emissions, both GHGs and aerosols. In the near term (years) this might further accelerate warming, but on the medium and long timescales (decades, centuries), at least some of it would be compensated by fast carbon cycle doing its thing: carbon sinks would keep churning (mostly ocean though, and most likely by physical mechanisms, as land carbon sinks could come under severe stress, to put it euphemistically – although on the other hand, plenty of former farmland would become available for colonization by pioneer organisms). In the end however, without proper modeling, it’s pretty much just a guess.
On a side note: I find it interesting that there used to be a much more significant overlap between peak oil and climate change research communities in the early 2000s. Nowadays, most papers I’ve seen sort of default to RCP4.5 as a baseline and RCP8.5 as a plausible high-end emissions scenario, as if depletion of affordable stuff with all the implications thereof was non-existent.
Nobody, re your side note, I am wondering if this is because the peak oil story evolved to become more of a net energy story, and, in so doing, became a threat to the premise that our climate problem could be solved via an energy transition.
It is the proliferation Portuguese Man-O’-War populations in northern waters that really make me cringe when it comes global warming. Having been hit by one of those evil #%*& several years ago, I get nightmares with the thought. Throw on some hydrogen sulfide belching sea grass, and one has a full blown monster movie.
Robert S, 🫣.
I got stung on the eyelid by an irate wasp as a kid, but that’s been the worst of my interactions with the animal kingdom, thank Gawd.
Luckily for me my misanthropy is peaking right before the collapse.