Huge thanks to August’s sponsor, who wishes to remain anonymous. At his request, I’m sharing a link to his brief but fascinating essay about Shakespeare’s The Tempest and the origins of Britain’s enslavement of Africans. He welcomes feedback in the comments section.
“The Iran war energy crisis is just getting started.
“The Iran war has pushed the global oil refining industry to the brink, signalling that diesel and gasoline prices may remain elevated for years. Deal or no deal, the global energy inflation shock is far from over.”
“Western oil refinery closures set to continue despite war shock.
“North America and Europe to lose further capacity to turn oil into petrol, diesel and jet fuel because of investor wariness… European oil refinery capacity is set to shrink by a fifth over the next decade… In the US, S&P expects a 7 per cent fall in the 10 years to 2035…”
https://www.ft.com/content/eae8bbc5-7946-4fdc-8e0a-3215f7e56dd2?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Iran goes on offensive as diplomacy with US stalls.
“Tehran appears to have concluded that “if confrontation becomes unavoidable, Iran should escalate earlier and more forcefully rather than wait for the United States or Israel to define the terms of the conflict”, says one analyst.”
“Trump threatens Iran’s trade partners, as military strikes make way for economic pressure…
““Today, I am announcing the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Any country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran will itself face tremendous economic consequences.””
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/20/trump-threatens-crush-iran-economy-war-hormuz
“Iranian Oil Supply to Chinese Refiners Squeezed by US Blockade…
“The US renewed its blockade in mid-July, and a growing flotilla of Iranian ships are now trapped. At least 41 million barrels of oil is now stuck on vessels inside the Persian Gulf, as are 22 empty tankers, according to Kpler…”
“How China and Russia could hobble Trump’s plans to isolate Iran.
“Russia is already under sweeping US sanctions and operates largely outside the US-led economic framework. China, meanwhile, has repeatedly shown it is willing to ignore US sanctions when doing so serves its own economic interests.”
“Pentagon quizzes NATO allies on political loyalty, documents reveal.
“The Pentagon has handed NATO allies of the United States a long list of questions about whether they are adhering to President Donald Trump’s vision for the transatlantic alliance, according to documents obtained exclusively by Al Jazeera.”
“Denmark has sent conscripts to Greenland for the first time as Copenhagen steps up its Arctic military presence following US President Donald Trump’s claims on the territory.
“Copenhagen has increased its military presence in Greenland… and has now deployed conscripts for the first time to the island’s capital, Nuuk, and Kangerlussuaq air base, the military announced on Tuesday.”
https://www.euractiv.com/news/denmark-deploys-first-conscripts-to-greenland/
“US government debt hits $40tn as borrowing rises at historic rate…
“In the past 10 years alone, the overall debt burden has doubled. Debt held by the public — a key metric monitored by markets that excludes intragovernmental holdings — now exceeds $32tn, roughly equal to the size of the US economy.”
https://www.ft.com/content/673f8c35-1433-479f-803f-0597cbe7ef74?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“U.S. bond intervention is like ‘paying your mortgage with your credit card,’ JPMorgan’s Sullivan says…
“The Treasury is effectively buying back longer-duration bonds while issuing shorter-dated bills, a strategy that can provide temporary relief but leaves the underlying debt burden intact, James Sullivan, JPMorgan’s co-head of global fundamental research, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/us-bond-intervention-shifting-problem-future-jpmorgan.html
“‘Rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic’: Bonds erase the impact of Treasury’s intervention…
“Asked about the latest oil price hikes Thursday, Bessent conceded, “I’m not sure why oil has popped up.” He also claimed to have “asymmetric information” that he said was better than what investors and traders have.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/bond-yields-stocks-oil-prices-rcna593517
“It Won’t Take Much to Burst the US Stock Market Bubble…
“On the way up, higher demand leads to wider profit margins that sustain equity market valuations. On the way down, the outlook for earnings deteriorates quickly as the shortfall of demand relative to expectations is exacerbated by a collapse in profit margins.”
“Anthropic Expects to Match SpaceX’s Record IPO Size or Top It…
“A first-time share sale topping SpaceX would easily power 2026 to become the best year on record for US IPO volume, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Newly listed companies have already raised $160.6 billion through August 19…”
“You’re Already Funding the AI Bubble — and You’ll Pay for the Bust…
“”The bailout has already been legislated,” Ortkiese states. “It runs automatically, jurisdiction by jurisdiction, the moment the receiver’s assessment goes out.””
https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/already-funding-ai-bubble-ll-033114528.html
“Walmart posts weakest growth in years, a worrying sign of inflation-weary Americans…
“Signs of inflation weariness are starting to appear at some of the nation’s most important retail giants, raising doubts about how long consumers can keep up strong spending.”
“Japan bond yields rise as oil gains stoke fresh inflation concerns.
“Japan bond yields rose, with the 5-year hitting a record and the 2-year its highest since 1995, as oil gains on Middle East risk add to inflation concerns. Rising yields haven’t yet supported the yen, with US CPI due Wednesday the next test.”
https://investinglive.com/news/japan-bond-yields-rise-as-oil-gains-stoke-fresh-inflation-concerns/
“Japan’s historic yen intervention has ‘turbo-charged’ the carry trade.
““The intervention only addressed a ‘symptom’, but [is] not curing the ‘disease,’” said Francis Tan, Asia chief strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management, referring to the structural forces including Japan’s low borrowing costs and wide interest-rate differentials with other major economies.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/20/us-japan-yen-intervention-bank-of-japan-carry-trade.html
“Private credit risks remain at large. Regulators and investors should pay attention to the strain in the direct loan market…
“Some on Wall Street characterise concerns over private credit markets as media hype, but the pockets of instability are real. Even some private lenders have themselves suggested in recent comments that cyclical dynamics may now be at play.”
https://www.ft.com/content/b58c7ea1-1b97-4f1f-b19d-2544041ec0a8?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Private Credit’s Next Big Thing Is $1 Trillion in British Pensions… UK pension insurers are the most exposed in Europe to private credit….
“This massive capital migration has sparked direct warnings from international credit agencies and microprudential watchdogs… Regulators are flag-marking the increasing use of offshore reinsurance and complex structuring.”
“Councils across the UK are increasingly turning towards Artificial Intelligence (AI) as they try to fill a looming £4bn financial black hole.
“But local government experts say it is not the “silver bullet” to save a system from “the brink of collapse”. There are also ethical concerns around the increasing use of AI in assessing the level of care vulnerable people need.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdx7r9467kno
“John Healey warned to limit Budget borrowing amid bond sell-off [UK]…
“Investors are on edge around the world given a sell-off in US long-term government bonds, which were hit by fresh selling on Thursday. The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds was up as much as 0.07 percentage points at 5.27 per cent in New York morning trading.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2d7e64e8-386a-4987-ae4d-04b6bf2a5e6a?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Record German debt sales deepen strains for Europe’s battered bond market.
“Germany and the broader euro zone are selling record amounts of bonds, adding to the pressures driving European bond yields to multi-year highs as the continent continues to borrow heavily amid crises ranging from COVID-19 to the Iran war.”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/record-german-debt-sales-deepen-050244561.html
“Europe’s Energy Reserves Worked. The Next Test Will Be Harder…
“Strategic reserves can absorb the first impact of an energy shock. They cannot make an import-dependent energy system permanently secure. And after using part of its oil buffer, Europe is now heading toward winter with a much less comfortable gas position.”
“Heatwaves and energy crunch: Can Europe withstand a double shock?
“Heatwaves are squeezing growth and productivity while the Iran war drives up Europe’s energy costs. Wildfires are burning, crops are failing and rivers are running dry. Europe is baking under its fifth heatwave of the year. Economists warn extreme heat is becoming an economic risk…”
“Europe’s hollowed-out armies: The race to find 100,000 soldiers…
“Even before the European Commission unveiled its €800 billion plan to rearm Europe, the European Parliament raised concerns over the manpower shortage. In 2024, it adopted a report warning that “European armed forces face severe recruitment and retention problems.””
“Russia, Ukraine Trade Strikes as Zelenskyy Seeks More Missiles…
“The exchanges are taking a rising toll on both countries. Russian strikes on Ukraine are getting more deadly, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to step up calls for allies to provide more interceptors. Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, meanwhile, have put fuel supplies in the nation under pressure.”
“Moscow Gas Stations Reimpose Fuel Limits as ‘Second Wave’ of Shortages Hits Russia.
“Fuel purchase restrictions are beginning to make a comeback in some regions as persistent shortages continue to dog the domestic market following months of Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, in what Russian media is calling the “second wave” of the summer fuel crisis.”
“Myanmar military offensive targets land for Russia-backed port project…
“The offensive around the Dawei Special Economic Zone (SEZ) — that includes a planned deep-sea port and power plant on the Andaman Sea — is the clearest sign yet that Myanmar’s military-backed government is willing to use force to revive a project touted as a strategic alternative to the Strait of Malacca.”
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/myanmar-military-offensive-targets-land-040139388.html
“North Korea fires 10 missiles day after Trump curtails South Korea joint drills.
“North Korea has launched about 10 short-range ballistic missiles towards the sea, South Korea’s military said, a day after Pyongyang shrugged off Donald Trump’s order to scale back US military drills with South Korea in an apparent attempt to resume diplomacy.”
“China to build environmental monitoring station near disputed Scarborough Shoal.
“China has approved the construction of a marine environmental observation station to monitor an area that includes the disputed Scarborough Shoal, a persistent flashpoint in tensions with the Philippines in the South China Sea.”
“Hundreds of Tibetans protest China’s ethnic unity law by shaving heads.
“A protest organised by hundreds of Tibetans in New Delhi led many exiles to shave their heads, calling out and criticising China’s ethnic unity and progress law.”
“Pakistan Says It Shot Down Taliban Drone, Rejects Afghan Strike Claims…
“The statement came after Afghanistan’s Taliban-led Defense Ministry announced that it had conducted strikes against what it described as Islamic State-linked sites in Pakistan’s Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.”
https://thekabultribune.com/en/0009522
“Pakistani forces kill five militants in restive southwest amid surge in attacks…
“The development comes during one of the deadliest outbreaks of violence in Balochistan this year, where coordinated attacks have killed dozens of security personnel and prompted large-scale military and intelligence-based operations.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2655311/amp
“US military presence in Middle East could be cut back after Iran war ends: report.
“Troops could be withdrawn from the Persian Gulf, officials told The Washington Post, following months of attacks by Iranian forces that have targeted U.S. bases across the region since the war began in late February.”
“Israeli opinion article says Turkey’s Nato protection does not apply to troops in Syria…
“The piece comes two days after Israeli air strikes destroyed parts of a disused air force base in northern Syria, close to the Turkish border, where Israel believed Turkish troops were on the cusp of moving in.”
“Israeli warplanes carry out overnight strikes in southern Lebanon…
“Lebanon has demanded an end to Israeli attacks and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory, while Israel has tied further withdrawals and security arrangements to steps aimed at preventing Hezbollah from maintaining a military presence near its border.”
“Houthis and government trade attacks as Yemen slides back to full-scale war…
“Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which supports the Houthis, warned on Thursday that Saudi Arabia would be “unable to contain” the Houthis as the rebels ramp up attacks on the kingdom.”
“Gunmen seize tanker off Yemen amid resurgence of Somali piracy…
““UKMTO have received confirmation that the tanker has been boarded by six armed persons who are now in control of the vessel and redirecting to Somalia,” UKMTO said in a statement… The maritime security monitor provided no further details and did not say whether the tanker or its crew were safe.”
“Somalia faces another hunger crisis and the UN food agency head says it has far less funds to help…
“Six million people in Somalia are facing acute food insecurity while the World Food Program has only a tenth of the resources it had in 2022 when it helped avert famine in the drought- and conflict-stricken East African nation…”
“Fighting breaks out in western Tigray as Ethiopia and TPLF trade blame.
“Fighting has broken out in western Tigray, in one of the most serious breaches yet of the three-year-old peace deal between Ethiopia’s federal government and fighters in the northern region.”
“Over 200,000 people newly displaced in Sudan’s Kordofan as fighting rages.
“More than 200,000 people have been newly displaced across Sudan’s Kordofan region due to intensified fighting since late last year, the United Nations has said, as continued drone attacks target critical water and electricity infrastructure in the region’s biggest city, el-Obeid.”
“Ebola outbreak out of control in Democratic Republic of the Congo, WHO says: ‘It is spreading faster than our ability to contain it’…
““We have to be frank: the outbreak is far from under control. It has pulled well ahead, and we are still playing catch-up. What worries me most is where people are dying: at home, within their communities, outside healthcare centers and off the lists of identified contacts,” he [Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus] acknowledged.”
“Anti-government protesters take to Tunisia’s streets for second month.
“Protesters in Tunis said on Thursday that they reject “one-man rule” and “a slide towards dictatorship”, and urged the release of jailed opposition figures, activists and journalists.”
“US pummels Cuban economy with new sanctions on mining, construction.
“A notice posted on the US Treasury Department’s website on Thursday showed Cuba’s Ministry of Construction of Cuba among the sanctioned entities, as well as government-controlled import companies.”
“First group of deportees arrives in troubled Haiti after US ends TPS program.
“The U.S. deported more than 160 people to Haiti on Thursday for the first time since the Trump administration won a legal battle to end Temporary Protected Status for some 350,000 Haitians.”
“US military assists Ecuador in 1st land operation against cartels…
“The United States and Ecuador carried out a joint military operation against “designated terrorist organizations in Ecuador… The operations are a powerful example of the commitment of partners in Latin America and the Caribbean to combat the scourge of narco-terrorism,” U.S. Southern Command wrote in a post on X.”
“The drone war is coming for global shipping…
“If civilian ships become habitual targets in wars and almost-wars, their owners will have to spend money installing protective technology, and that expense will eventually be passed on to consumers.”
“‘Perfect storm’ brews for global food supply this winter as grain prices soar.
“Russia and Ukraine continue to attack one another’s port infrastructure, blocking shipments from the “breadbasket of Europe” and driving up wheat prices, and adding to a grim cocktail of factors afflicting global food supply.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/grain-price-russia-food-supply.html
“Governments brace for historic El Nino impacts on global weather extremes.
“Governments are preparing for heightened risks of drought, flooding, extreme heat and wildfires as a rapidly strengthening El Nino raises the prospect of a historic climate event later this year.”
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
“Russia is already under sweeping US sanctions and operates largely outside the US-led economic framework. China, meanwhile, has repeatedly shown it is willing to ignore US sanctions when doing so serves its own economic interests.”
In the prelude to WW1, the most powerful nations wanted to create blocs with largely autarkic internal markets, controlling as much as the world as possible (this was, of course, a fantasy even back then). Now they do not want to partition and re-partition the world, to paraphrase Lenin. Rather they bargain over their respective shares of the total global economic system, by any and all means. Lenin’s observation about the inevitable degeneration of “free market” capitalism into monopoly and inter-imperialist rivalry is still true, but the nature of that rivalry reflects the evolution of the system. Fragmentation, war, integration, peace – all at the same time, hurtling towards a dead end.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhY3N1Qw2pM
Now that is my kind of mash-up, Jupiviv. Unlike a global economic system hitting limits, it works perfectly. 👌
“Good Times” is so hypnotic with that repeating base riff and bittersweet melody in E Dorian mode. I never get tired of it. I love it as the backing of “Rapper’s Delight”, too:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8yUxDOHlh8
Just as “Freedom” in the west has been redefined to mean the freedom to deprive others of theirs, “free markets” simply means the freedom to manipulate markets via QE, QT, oil supply constraints/strangleholds, interest rate manipulation, illegal blockades, illegal sanctions, etc. That is not degeneration of free markets, it’s blatant, deliberate sabotage of them.
From Quark’s latest (thanks, flippr)
“…we are actually very close to a generalized collapse, avoided until now by resorting to massive debt (massive liquidity), with the hope of avoiding monetary inflation.
“The rise in market bond interest rates is already making leaders nervous, with forced interventions like the yen’s or the proposal of a disguised QE to calm market nerves. But even if they manage once again to delay the system’s crash, the figures are pushing hard in the opposite direction.”
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/la-insostenibilidad-del-sistema-en
(there’s now a translate button at the top)
Thanks, Cassandra. That “Deckchairs on the Titanic” metaphor mentioned in the thread is so apt.
We are re-arranging financial claims in a panic now, but the underlying real economy, now facing a fuel crunch and an unprecedented El Nino, ultimately still has to service them.
The Refining Paradox
The war around Iran has exposed a remarkable paradox in the oil market. While refineries in Europe and North America are being shut down, refining margins for diesel have surged. According to Reuters, European diesel prices have risen by more than 70 percent since the outbreak of the war, while diesel refining margins have more than tripled since February to over $75 a barrel.
At the same time, the capacity to turn crude oil into usable fuels continues to disappear. According to the Financial Times, European refining capacity could decline by around 20 percent over the next ten years. In the United States, a decline of roughly 7 percent is expected by 2035.
At first sight, this seems contradictory. If diesel is scarce and refining highly profitable, expanding refining capacity would appear to make economic sense. But refineries are capital-intensive installations designed to operate for decades. Their economic future depends not only on today’s diesel price, but also on a reliable long-term supply of suitable crude oil.
This is where depletion enters the picture. Existing oil fields continuously lose production capacity. That natural decline has to be compensated for every year by bringing new resources on stream, while new discoveries are becoming smaller and new production is generally more difficult, capital-intensive and energy-intensive.
Iran did not create this structural problem. The war is better understood as a stress test. Refining capacity in the Middle East has been knocked offline, Russian refineries have been hit, and international product flows have been disrupted. At the same time, inventories have been drawn down. Reuters reports that global oil inventories fell by an average of 3.5 million barrels per day between March and July. US diesel inventories are at their lowest seasonal level in thirty years.
This reveals how little redundancy remains in the system. Refining capacity cannot be replaced quickly either. Repairs require specialised compressors, heat exchangers and catalysts for which lead times were already long before the war.
The paradox, therefore, is that the value of existing refining capacity can rise sharply even as total capacity continues to decline.
This is characteristic of depletion. Scarcity does not necessarily first appear as an empty oil well. It may emerge earlier as growing stress between the different links in the system: extraction, refining, inventories and transport.
At the filling station, only the final number appears.
€2.24 for a litre of diesel.
Zip, I wonder if governments will start stepping in to prop up such a crucial sector. The UK nationalised its steel industry and bailed out our only large-scale C02 plant earlier this year:
“The UK is temporarily reopening a bioethanol plant to shore up CO2 supplies for local industries, including food and drinks. Owner Ensus will restart production in Teesside for three months following government talks.
“CO2 is used in the food and beverage sector for stunning livestock, cold storage and putting the fizz in drinks. The gas is also a key component in urea fertiliser production.”
https://www.just-food.com/news/co2-plant-reopens-to-bolster-uk-supply-as-middle-east-conflict-rages-on/
From Pan’s last link above:
“Governments are preparing for heightened risks of drought, flooding, extreme heat and wildfires as a rapidly strengthening El Nino raises the prospect of a historic climate event later this year.”
——-
Me: IMO, most govts won’t do much of anything at all to prepare. Even if they want to prepare they cannot or will not direct adequate funds to make much of an impact against the gargantuan forces of CC, resource depletion, declining net energy, the Oil Export Land Model [Jeffrey Brown, Lars Larsen] and other bad effects under the Overshoot & Collapse umbrella.
The late Jay Hanson summed it all up very accurately with his Thermo/Gene Collision paper.
The global time to take an ‘ounce of prevention’ was over 50 to 100 years ago. Now Mother Nature will assert ‘a pound of cure’ going forward.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
From Google AI:
No single country officially measures or possesses a dominant public awareness regarding systemic ecological overshoot and civilizational collapse. Instead, specialized academic institutions, think tanks, and networks track these metrics globally rather than uniformly across national populations.
‐———–
Me: our political & economic elite are blind or in deep denial, or else they absolutely know what lies ahead and are steering the system for maximum benefit for themselves and their family members.
Nobody wants to give up whatever perceived advantage they have. When the lifeboat is full: logic dictates you heavily club and stab any other swimmers trying to come aboard.
Bob, I agree there is a limit to what cash-strapped governments can do, and the measures discussed in the Al Jazeera article did seem relatively modest. Better than nothing though!
The UK Met Office issued its El Nino warning today. Looks like Islay is going to get blasted with some very wet and stormy weather this autumn/winter.
““We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event”, said Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office.. Professor Scaife says forecasters “already see signals for increased rainfall and storminess in autumn here in the UK”, especially into November and December.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cd0x17r4j0yo
‘Gov’ts preparing” is as anodyne as “Scientists warn”. They are meant to do nothing more than assuage fears, pretending that knowledge of incoming threats will stimulate a change in behavior to either ward off or confront it when neither is actually contemplated. As in the case with oil refineries spelled out so well by zip, “No prophet is heeded if no profit is seeded.”
“”Gov’ts preparing” is as anodyne as “Scientists warn”.
Rob, we could probably add “Raising awareness” to that ineffectual pile.
I wonder if hackers can hijack millions of websites to help raise awareness.
Instead of what you expect to normally find, you get lots of doom info and links to doom websites.
Once medical supplies such as personal protective equipment [PPEs], antibiotics, vaccines, and disinfectants become impossible to acquire due to Collapse: then all hell will ensue.
Take Ebola alone for example (from google):
—–
How long can the Ebola virus remain infectious in vomit, feces, and blood?
Outside of the human body, the Ebola virus can remain infectious for up to several days when suspended in organic fluids like blood, vomit, or feces at room temperature. In contrast, if the virus is left on a dry surface without being protected by large amounts of bodily fluid, it typically only survives for several hours. [1]
The exact survival time depends on the specific fluid, temperature, and environmental conditions: [1, 2, 3]
In Blood: Studies tracked by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) demonstrate that viable, live Ebola virus can persist in both liquid and drying blood for up to 5 to 7 days. [1]
In Vomit and Feces: Because these “wet” fluids protect the virus from drying out, it can remain highly infectious for a few days on surfaces, clothing, or bedding. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
In Wastewater: When heavily diluted in modern sewage systems, the virus is highly fragile and unlikely to survive long enough to pose a public health risk. [1]
In Cleaned Environments: According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), daily chemical disinfection in a standard clinical setting reduces the virus’s survival time to less than 24 hours. [1]
Because of this persistence, public health agencies like the World Health Organization (WHO) treat all soiled materials, medical equipment, and post-mortem remains as highly hazardous until they undergo strict biohazard decontamination. [1, 2, 3, 4]
—–
Me: Would Israel release ebola in Gaza? Would Trump infect Iran with ebola? Is Iran working to infect the US?
Are there some genetic bio-labs working with ebola to make it into an infectious aerosol like Covid or H5N1 avian flu?
Would China infect India to reduce northward migration when India’s wet-bulb temps are constantly too high?
All kinds of bio-warfare possibilities leap to mind.
“You’re Already Funding the AI Bubble — and You’ll Pay for the Bust…
“”The bailout has already been legislated,”
Here’s an explanation for us simple minds.;-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YXDHskRP6Y
Thank you, TR. I liked this quote in the comments section:
“AI won’t be a bubble, it will be a black hole.”