Huge thanks to August’s sponsor, who wishes to remain anonymous. At his request, I’m sharing a link to his brief but fascinating essay about Shakespeare’s The Tempest and the origins of Britain’s enslavement of Africans. He welcomes feedback in the comments section.
“The Next Energy Crisis Could Be a Water Crisis.
“Water scarcity is becoming an energy-security threat, affecting hydropower, thermal plants, grids and rapidly growing AI data centers. Markets alone may not solve the problem, as water is essential, politically sensitive and constrained by climate and infrastructure.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Next-Energy-Crisis-Could-Be-a-Water-Crisis.html
“Bonkers.
“A new yearly high global surface temperature for 2026 was just posted by ECMWF, nearly two weeks past the typical peak date of August 1st.
“The Climate 8-ball isn’t talking.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2088961362303336628
“Yikes!
“This year has now seen 17 days above 17.0°C [62.6F]… and counting… Will 2024’s record of 18 days above 17.0°C be broken in the next few days? Stay tuned!”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2088977836766011696
“In the subsurface equatorial Pacific, ocean temperatures recently reached 9.96°C (17.9°F) above average, the largest anomaly of this El Niño event so far and larger than anything observed in 1997.
“The current record-breaking westerly wind burst could cause an even higher spike.” [Ben Noll]
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2088649414722117871
“For those who are not faint of heart, the latest CFSv2 run shows the Nino 3 region peaking at 4.92°C above the 1991-2020 baseline in December.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2089104403697750506
“Another Emerging Climate Pattern Could Amplify El Niño-Driven Weather Risks [positive Indian Ocean Dipole]…
“…a rapidly strengthening El Niño in the Pacific is interacting with temperature extremes in the Indian Ocean. When these two distinct climate patterns occur simultaneously, they create a compounding effect that can severely alter global weather, agriculture, and economic stability.”
“Why Siberia’s warming landscape could shatter Trump’s Arctic ambitions.
“…as the three powers vie for control of Arctic sea lanes and minerals, rapidly thawing permafrost in Russia’s Siberia could derail their plans. According to a new international study led by Chinese scientists, the massive cost of collapsing ground threatens to overshadow the region’s economic potential.”
“Up and down in Shelagontsy, Siberia!
“On August 1, it was 33.9°C / 93F (12°C above average), a new August record & 3rd highest temperature for any month since 1940. On August 14, it was -7.1°C (11°C below normal), 2nd coldest temperature ever recorded that early in August.” [Thierry Goose]
https://x.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/2088679731462033415
“The World’s Oceans Are Getting Hotter. Surfers Are Feeling It.
“In 2026, surf spots in the Med, Western Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf of Mexico have all recorded their hottest water temperatures. It’s good for surfing wetsuit-free, but a massive warning for the planet… And while surfing without a wetsuit is one of life’s truly great pleasures, surfers might be acting as the frogs in the boiling water metaphor.£
https://www.surfer.com/news/surfers-record-warm-ocean-temperatures
“‘Our new normal’: how marine heatwaves affect life in British seas.
“‘It sounds silly but I thought it was a person in the water waving,” says Kurt Lander, skipper of the Yellowfin charter boat, based out of Brighton. But when he grabbed his binoculars, he realised the fluttering movement he had noticed in the middle of the Channel shipping lane was a pair of sunfish.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/17/marine-heatwave-new-normal-britain-seas
“Are we paying attention to what’s happening to Scotland’s birds?
“…What the agency has found, based on its Scottish Biodiversity Indicator for Seabirds, is that total seabird numbers are now around half of what they were in the 1980s. It also found that almost all of the species studied have declined over the long term…”
https://www.thescottishfarmer.co.uk/news/26471084.paying-attention-happening-scotlands-birds/
“Mapped: The wildfires scorching the UK as four major incidents still ongoing…
“The dry conditions and back-to-back heatwaves have created the perfect conditions for wildfires and there are several still ongoing. The National Fire Chiefs Council said its England and Wales had been struck by 1,017 wildfires this year – the same as last year’s record-breaking total – and at least 458 in July alone.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/wildfires-map-heatwave-uk-b3034053.html
“Reform’s Richard Tice says UK should ‘celebrate’ climate change: ‘You can’t stop it’…
“He encouraged people to celebrate warmer summers and embrace the changing weather conditions in the UK. Mr Tice highlighted potential positive outcomes, suggesting that warmer weather could improve English wine to better compete with French producers.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/richard-tice-reform-uk-climate-change-b3034452.html
“London’s flood defence may need replacing far sooner than expected due to extreme weather.
“The Thames Barrier that protects Londoners from flooding may need to be replaced up to two decades earlier than anticipated and could cost at least £20bn, according to senior government officials who warn that an increase in extreme weather has put the vital defence system under strain.”
https://www.ft.com/content/0a2db2ce-b89f-4d2b-a93b-794e4e422141?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Belgium’s largest wildfire on record remains out of control.
“Firefighters say limited rainfall has increased smoke, reducing visibility and making it harder to detect flames burning deep in peat soil… The fire is also threatening the German border and the medieval town of Monschau, where precautionary evacuations have been ordered due to smoke risks.”
https://www.dw.com/en/belgiums-largest-wildfire-on-record-remains-out-of-control/video-78405177
“French PM heckled over wildfire response as blazes continue across Europe…
“The organiser of a group of affected residents accused the prime minister of not wanting to meet them, while Lecornu’s office it has “nothing to hide” about how fire operations have been conducted, AFP reports.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2rzx5g5yro
“Record warm night yesterday in GERMANY.
“Among the records of High Minimums broken, we have the first tropical night and full Minimum >20C [68F] in history for the Bavarian town of Altomünster-Maisbrunn (511m asl) with a MIn of 20.6C. Data since 1955.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2089408782547779799
“A looming rock collapse threatens a Swiss village as thawing permafrost destabilizes the Alps.
“An unstable mountain rock formation looming above the Swiss village of Kandersteg threatens a landslide that could rival the disaster that destroyed nearby Blatten last year, a collapse scientists linked to thawing permafrost and glacier dynamics.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/swiss-bern-swiss-alps-b3034629.html
“Czech Government Reactivates National Coalition to Combat Drought.
“The persistent drought and low groundwater levels are causing growing concern within the Czech government. The reactivated expert body will now review existing measures and prepare further steps to tackle water shortages.”
“One dead and 15 firefighters injured in multiple explosive wildfires in Croatia…
“Several firefighters suffered respiratory distress after prolonged exposure to dense smoke and airborne particulates. Others were treated for burns, sprains, and impact injuries caused by falling debris and sudden wind‑driven flare‑ups.”
https://ctif.org/news/one-dead-and-15-firefighters-injured-multiple-explosive-wildfires-croatia
“Two people died and and hundreds were evacuated after two fires broke out “almost simultaneously” on a Greek island near Athens on Sunday afternoon, officials said.
“About 200 firefighters were deployed to keep the twin fires from converging on the island of Salamina, which was under a high wildfire risk on Sunday.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c87nnwlpe5no
“Curious why so much of Europe is on fire right now?
“NASA GRACE Soil moisture is in the bottom 1% across the vast majority of the Continent. This is what happens when the climate warms at 2X the Global rate, with 5 heatwaves so far this summer.” [Jeff Berardelli]
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2089188617763607019
“Mani: Unprecedented flash floods; lightning hits woman [Greece].
“A heavy downpour hit the region of eastern Mani in southern Peloponnese on Saturday turning roads into rushing torrents of mud, causing incalculable damage to properties, vehicles and infrastructure.”
“Torrential Rains and Fierce Winds Batter Naples [Italy].
“Cloudburst over Naples and its province: extremely strong gusts of wind and heavy rain have hit the entire area. Bad weather and disruptions have been reported throughout the region, with flooded streets and difficulties for motorists and pedestrians.”
https://www.ilmattino.it/en/torrential_rains_and_fierce_winds_batter_naples-9711724.html
“Severe summer storms in Spain leave three dead and cause beach chaos.
“Three people died during storms and flash floods caused by freak summer weather in Spain… Two women lost their lives and two children were injured after being trapped in the basement of a home hit by a landslide caused by a heavy downpour in a village near Ponferrada…”
“Sea surface temperature are over 30°C throughout the Tyrrhenian Sea, Ligurian Sea, Ionian Sea, Sicily Channel, and Sicilian Sea [Mediterranean].
“Peaks even reaching 32°C [89.6F] off the Sicilian Tyrrhenian coast and in the Sicilian Sea.” [Italia 24H Live – Notizie dall’Italia]
https://x.com/Italia24HLive/status/2089035739300254114
“Severe flooding and catastrophic hailstorm in El Khroub, Algeria.
“On Saturday, 15 August 2026, a violent thunderstorm unleashed severe flash flooding and a catastrophic hailstorm across El Khroub, a municipality in the Constantine Province of northeastern Algeria.”
“Nigeria’s capital city Abuja flooded, vehicles submerged…
“Footage of cars covered in water and homes flooded in different locations, including Wuse, Jabi, Maitama, Katampe and Apo districts in Abuja, emerged on the internet following rainfall over the weekend.”
“Beyond GERD, Ethiopia’s dam ambitions shift battle over Nile flows.
“If talk of additional dams becomes policy, the dispute will move from a crisis centred on one dam towards a broader remaking of the water geography of the eastern Nile basin.”
https://thearabweekly.com/beyond-gerd-ethiopias-dam-ambitions-shift-battle-over-nile-flows
“War over the Nile? The exact weapons Egypt is considering to strike Ethiopia…
“Conducting a military operation thousands of kilometres from home requires highly specialised assets, and Egypt has spent a decade expanding its inventory. The spearhead of its Air Force is the fleet of Dassault Rafale multirole fighter jets.”
“Rare summer storm breaks Jerusalem’s all-time August rainfall record in one hour.
“The Israel Meteorological Service says 11 mm fell in Ma’ale Adumim within 60 minutes, breaking the August record since measurements began, as thunderstorms hit Jerusalem and flood warnings remain in effect.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/environment/article/sjyxy108zx
“Flash Floods Ravage Displaced Camps in Idlib.
“Displaced people’s camps in Idlib Governorate, Syria, suffered extensive damage due to heavy rainfall and flash floods, particularly in the Kharbat al-Jawz area in the western countryside.”
https://www.mtv.com.lb/en/news/1651420
“IRAN IS BOILING in every sense. Temperature reaches 50/52C every day in Southern areas with Night Mins often >35C.
“The high elevated valleys don’t offer much of a relief. In fact last night Tehran (1190m asl) had its hottest August night in history with a Minimum of 32.6C [90.7F].” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2088954923681542571
“Torrential rain floods Rawalpindi [Pakistan].
“Nullah Leh overflowed following the near continuous heavy spell of rain over the past two days in the twin cities. The water level in the drain exceeded well over 20 feet and flooded low-lying areas with water entering homes and causing severe damage to properties.”
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2624474/torrential-rain-floods-rawalpindi
“Alarm bells as western Himalaya warms faster…
“The study combined 120 years of observed temperature records (1901–2020) with eight global climate models and found that winter is warming faster than spring, night-time temperatures are climbing faster than daytime highs…”
https://www.deccanherald.com/india/alarm-bells-as-western-himalaya-warms-faster-4113952
“Hong Kong aiming to revamp heat-stress warning system by end of this month.
“Hong Kong’s labour minister has said authorities aim to complete a revamp of the city’s heat-stress warning system by the end of this month, following criticism that the alert level was not increased during record-breaking temperatures.”
“Extreme heat more dangerous for people 60 and over than previously thought…
““Our results suggest accounting for age stratified vulnerability, intolerable heat will be experienced at much larger scales and for longer durations, affecting far more people than previously thought,” according to the study, which was led by health academics from Stanford University in California.”
“Municipalities in Chiba Prefecture [Japan] hit by torrential rain last week continued to remove cars that had been abandoned after becoming submerged…
“Some 2,700 vehicles remained abandoned in the prefecture as of Sunday, with many roads still blocked by them… 10 people died in the torrential rain and two men remain missing.”
“Entire summer’s worth of rain fell on Geoje in just two days [South Korea].
“According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, Geoje received 638.7 millimeters [25 inches] of rain in the 24 hours through 6 p.m. Monday, while Tongyeong recorded 453.7 mm. Both were the highest daily rainfall totals ever recorded in the two cities.”
https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10843455
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN THAILAND:
“Record of August hottest night smashed again allover the country. RECORDS HIGH MINIMUMS – 29.7 [85.5F] Bangkok Pilot, HOTTEST AUGUST NIGHT EVER RECORDED IN THAILAND (tied from earlier this month); 29.5 Phuket AP, 29.3 Bang Na, 29.3 Samut Prakan, 29.1 Bangkok.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2088567570827731403
“NEVER ENDING RECORD HEAT IN INDONESIA. Records are broken all over, every day.
“Today new August records of high Temperatures: 36.8C [101.5F] Palangka Raya, 36.1C Tanjungpandan.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2089327017262997866
“Philippines suspends classes as extreme weather affects 5 million…
“The extreme weather has claimed 23 lives, injured 17 others and left one person missing… At least 50 cities and towns have declared a state of calamity, with Pampanga and Cavite placing all their municipalities under the status, the OCD said.”
“Clean-up begins in Hawaii after intense rain and flooding from Hurricane Lala.
“The storm felled trees and power lines and caused serious flooding that swept some 100 homes from their foundations… Laupahoehoe, on the northeast coast of the Big Island, saw the heaviest recorded rainfall at 43.54 inches (1.1 meters).”
“Record again in Lima, PERU!
“Today MINIMUM temperature of 21.7C [71F] was the highest ever recorded in August (typical of mid summer). So far this August Lima had Higher Minimums than its previous record 2/3rd of the days (it stands more time breaking records than not breaking them).” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2088400949958095079
“Torrential rains flood homes and roads across Lima, Peru.
“Heavy rains have flooded homes and roads in southern Lima, while river overflows, landslides, and road closures continue to affect Peru’s southern regions. In Lima, overwhelmed drainage systems have worsened the flooding as authorities warn that rains will intensify.”
“‘Everyone is scared’: flood-hit Porto Alegre braces for another El Niño [Brazil]…
“In May 2024, flooding killed 183 people in the state of Rio Grande do Sul and displaced more than 600,000. The neighbourhood of Sarandi was one of the hardest-hit parts of Porto Alegre, with water levels reaching up to 5 metres above normal, completely submerging many of its streets.”
“WINTER & SUMMER in SOUTH AMERICA:
“Ahead of a new cold front, scorching heat has battered Bolivia, Paraguay and Brazil with temperatures up to 40.3C [104.5F] and very warm nights as well (Mins up to 27C). The PARAGUAY city of Encarnacion had its warmest August night ever: Min 24.4C.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2089468880389288009
“Three people, including two girls, were killed after heavy rains triggered flooding in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, and other parts of the country, local authorities said.
“Caracas fire department chief Pablo Antonio Palacios Salazar said two underage girls were swept away by flash floods and died, AFP reported.”
https://sana.sy/en/international/2336838/
“Extraordinary heat in the Caribbean. One by one, every single record is falling.
“Today Montego Bay had a MINIMUM of 28.4C [83.1F] which is HOTTEST AUGUST NIGHT EVER RECORDED IN JAMAICA and also all time High Minimum for Montego Bay.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2089055393041219628
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN CENTRAL AMERICA:
“This unprecedented 40C+ [104F+} heat in the rainy season continues and spreads: 40.0C Chinandega destroys in pieces – NICARAGUA HOTTEST AUGUST DAY IN HISTORY. Every single record is being broken and rebroken every month of 2026 and this will get worse.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2089101103681941982
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN MEXICO:
“Record after record… Tonight it was -again- the hottest night in history in Sinaloa MINIMUMS 30.8 [87.4F] Mazatlan and 29.8 Culiacan… Arriaga just broke its record of August highest temperature with 40.6C after breaking those of the High max and High min of every month of this year and all previous 3 years.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2089418152631304678
“Water levels at Lake Powell, the second-largest reservoir in the United States, have dropped to a record low, heightening anxiety over the Colorado River system crisis.
“The troubling milestone at Lake Powell comes a week after Lake Mead, the river’s other main reservoir, hit its own historic low.”
“A severe storm that passed through a county in Colorado left piles of hail stones and vehicles stuck in floodwater.
“The storms rolled through Douglas County on Aug. 15. Between 2:30 and 4 p.m., South Metro Fire Rescue crews were called out to nine public assist calls, two water rescues, including four adults and a dog on paddleboards, and one home struck by lightning…”
https://www.ktiv.com/2026/08/17/snowplow-clears-piles-hail-stones-roads-after-severe-storm/
“‘We can’t come back here’: Charleston residents face devastating flood aftermath [W Virginia].
“Severe storms Sunday night brought damage and flooding to several parts of the region, and the West Side of Charleston was hit hard. Garrison Avenue was one neighborhood that felt the most impact, with multiple trees and power lines down, as well as debris in nearly every yard.”
“Earth System Tipping Points…
“…there are improved methods and growing scientific evidence that several key Earth sub-systems are at increasing risk of reaching (or have already begun crossing) tipping points… The Brief stresses that tipping of any major Earth system would have catastrophic impacts on humans and the planet.”
https://unu.edu/cpr/policy-brief/earth-system-tipping-points
“Geoengineering Will Save Us. Technology will thwart the doomsayers…
“Thomas Malthus promulgated the theory that population would grow at a faster rate than the means to support that population could, and so there would have to be ways to reduce population in unpleasant ways. The population has grown, much as Malthus envisioned, but the means to support that population has grown faster. The reason is technology.”
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/geoengineering-will-save-us-9e53a46d
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
The Climate Is Changing Faster Than Our Certainty
An interesting and lengthy conversation between Nate Hagens and the Polish-American scientist Tad Patzek. Patzek is a professor emeritus, has worked at Berkeley and the University of Texas, and specializes in thermodynamics, energy systems and the physics of the climate system.
The Earth is now approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than in the pre-industrial era. That may not sound like much. But it is an average across the entire planet. Moreover, the additional heat would not simply disappear if emissions were to stop tomorrow. The oceans in particular have absorbed enormous amounts of energy and respond only slowly.
Things become more interesting when Hagens asks whether global warming itself is now accelerating. Patzek responds with striking caution. In his view, there are several indications that this may be happening. The oceans are warming, ice is disappearing, and recent research also points to declining albedo: the Earth is reflecting less sunlight and therefore absorbing more energy.
But Patzek then draws a clear distinction between his roles as a scientist and as an engineer. As a scientist, he sees statistical indications of acceleration but wants more data before drawing firm conclusions. As an engineer, however, he believes the signals are already strong enough to say: this is going to cause major problems.
‘Uncertainty’, as part of the methodological shadowboxing of science, does not mean that nothing is happening. It means that a complex system is changing while we are still trying to understand how quickly it is changing and in what ways.
Water makes this particularly visible. A warmer atmosphere and warmer oceans do not simply mean that everywhere becomes drier. The hydrological system becomes more erratic: prolonged droughts can alternate with exceptionally heavy rainfall.
And that changes the nature of the problem. It is not only the amount of available water that is changing, but above all its predictability. Agriculture, drinking-water systems, reservoirs, power stations, sewer systems, dikes and cities have all been designed around historical patterns. We ‘know’, approximately, when snow melts, how much water a river carries during summer, how frequently extreme rainfall occurs, how much water a reservoir must be able to hold, and roughly what temperature river water will reach in August.
It is precisely these statistical certainties that are now beginning to shift.
A warmer climate can combine longer periods without precipitation with more intense downpours when rain finally does arrive. As a result, even a region where annual precipitation barely changes can face increasingly severe water problems. Water that once fell gradually over several weeks and slowly infiltrated the soil and groundwater can now fall within a matter of hours, run off across parched ground and cause flooding. A few weeks later, the very same region may once again be suffering from drought.
For the energy system, that distinction is crucial. A nuclear power plant does not need a certain quantity of water at some point during the year; it needs sufficient cooling water at the precise moment it is generating electricity — and that water must not be too warm. A hydropower plant gains little from enormous volumes of water that have to be discharged during a flood if, a few months later, its reservoirs are inadequately replenished.
The hydrological regime around which our civilization has designed its infrastructure is therefore beginning to shift. And infrastructure has one fundamental problem with such a shift: a nuclear power plant, dam, sewer system, irrigation network or electricity grid cannot be redesigned every year to suit that year’s climate.
They were built for the statistics of the past — statistics that are losing their predictive value.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkjbmVLJGu4
Thank you, Zip – enlightening as ever.
“As a scientist, he sees statistical indications of acceleration but wants more data before drawing firm conclusions. As an engineer, however, he believes the signals are already strong enough to say: this is going to cause major problems.”
I am neither but it’s plain to me that warming is accelerating, as it obviously would under a rising Earth Energy Imbalance, and that this is going to cause catastrophic problems. As I remarked the other day, we are at the point where you don’t need to be some expert in fluid dynamics to see that a bloody great flood is coming.
Apropos of your comment about 1.5 degrees not seeming like much, if one considers that the coldest average day in the data occurred in January 1972 at 11.26C, while the hottest at 17.15C in July of 2024, for a historical max variance of just 5.89C. 1.5C represents more than 25% of this difference.
Bob, that is a very good insight.
so what if we really do go another 20-30 years in the state we are now – gradual slow descent into less and less resources for the many and a concentration of wealth for the few?
no revolution, no rebellion, no big crack in the status quo, just more of the same? until 2045 and even beyond?
are we just going to lose our minds? – how pano is no losing his mind doing this most days is beyond me.
Yeah he is tough as nails.
Everyone will be dead or wish they were by 2040.
I don’t really think of myself in those terms but I suppose it does take a certain type of toughness… stubbornness, definitely. 😂
I agree with your very sad timeline, Truth Wizard. My youngest reaches adulthood in 2030; I really hope we get there before too much upheaval sets in.
Accept the reality of the situation you are in, prepare in a way that’s possible for you and do what you can’t to enjoy the life you have.
It’s really all any of us can do in this circumstance. People will not change until they are forced to. It is what it is.
Nat, good to hear from you. I’ve been wondering how you were doing, as I posted all these Iran-centric threads.
“The population has grown, much as Malthus envisioned, but the means to support that population has grown faster. The reason is technology.”
Malthusianism is irrelevant in this debate. The missing piece is that the causes of overpopulation and technological development and mass-deployment are either the same or closely related. Technology develops on the basis of imperialism and colonialism, which in turn prevent the benefits of that development from getting distributed evenly across the world. The countries on the receiving end of imperialism experienced a reduction of absolute mortality from diseases and famine without also enjoying a substitution of the economic incentive to have more children with robust social welfare systems. As a result both population growth and absolute poverty have increased in the third world relative to pre-colonial times. The imperialist countries enjoyed all of those benefits in tandem, which is why their population growth slowed then stagnated and even slightly reversed (excluding immigration).
If all countries had received all benefits equally, overpopulation would not have happened. Then again if providing those benefits equally were a constraint imposed upon industrialism, it wouldn’t have developed in the first place, at least not in the way it in fact did. Make of that what thou wilt.
The Malthusian thesis itself is patently stupid and self-contradictory because it takes population growth to be an innate natural tendency but then turns around and demands it be reined in. Also, this innate natural tendency is especially strong among poor people for mysterious reasons which Malthus never bothered to investigate let alone explain, but did use as the basis of his argument for a prolongation of the work day from 12 to 16 hours.
It is neither stupid nor self-contradictory. Malthusian thinking was the centerpiece of both Darwin’s and Wallace’s independent formulations of what has come to be known as evolution by natural selection. As Darwin said, “it is the doctrine of Malthus applied with manifold force to the whole animal and vegetable kingdoms”. Malthus wasn’t just right; he was more right than he ever expected.
The tendency toward growth IS innate. Nature DOES rein it in. These are called “natural checks” in Darwin’s words.
As a counterintuitive aside: It has been found that the greatest check on natural birth rates is NATAL CARE. The more secure mothers are in taking care of current offspring, the less likely they are to have more children. This should give us some hope, but the world appears to be going to hell in a handbasket any way for a plethora of other reasons.
Natural selection is the observation that evolution has material as opposed to metaphysical causes. It’s only connection to Malthusian theory is the preference for a materialist rather than ethical/religious basis for an analysis of life, especially human life. Darwin was influenced by many thinkers and cited the scenario described by Malthus as one of many instances of natural selection. That does not somehow constitute evidence for Malthusianism. If you think population growth is innate then provide evidence for it. I provided evidence to the contrary, you just contradicted me.
As for natal care preventing more children – yes, of course, that is my point! It’s not counterintuitive at all, unless one subscribes to Malthusianism and believes humans (and poor people in particular) irrationally desire to maximize offspring independent of any other considerations. Higher living standards suppress the economic incentive to have more children, which is sufficient to prove Malthus wrong.
I have many times asked the question — were Malthus , Hubbert etc wrong or just early ? As my guru said ” It is a tragedy to be ahead of your time ” . 😭
Natural selection is about getting offspring (and other near relations) through to child bearing age. It is not just about having babies. Having fewer children but using many more resources in bringing them up makes sense in the right circumstances, but it is still the same driving force – i.e. to leave as many of your genes as possible in subsequent generations.
“Natural selection is about getting offspring (and other near relations) through to child bearing age.”
That is incorrect simply because those categories are inapplicable to millions of species, not to mention viruses.
Also, the idea that having fewer children maximizes genes is self-contradictory, even more so if those fewer children are using resources that could support many more children. Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket.
Finally, if you have any children of your own, I suggest doing an experiment – tell them the only reason you had them is to maximize your genes in subsequent generations and make them promise you they will make every effort to do so as is their duty. Then record their reaction and upload it, I guarantee it’ll go viral.
OMG!, jupiviv used the o-word.
911,send mental health responders to Climate & Economy, now. 😉
Doom getting ever more publicity. A good one from Caitlin Johnstone, who has a sizable following, despite the hopium at the end.
We All Know This Civilization Is Doomed, But They Keep Telling Us Everything’s Normal
https://open.substack.com/pub/caitlinjohnstone/p/we-all-know-this-civilization-is
Thanks, Cassandra. It is a good piece. I like her list of 10 observations – they all ring very true.
Pan’s link above: “Iran is boiling!”
Me: If Iran’s leadership was truly intelligent, and it was making decisions that would best help its citizens, then this is what should happen…
1. USA can have all of Iran & the Strait of Hormuz. Minerals, FFs, whatever else has value. Trump’s war instantly ends.
2. Any Iranian wanting to escape the wet-bulb heat, drought, and collapsing aquifers can freely enter the US as an automatic US citizen. They know that Iran will soon be uninhabitable. The US facilitates their immigration to the “Land of AC, flush toilets, and easy motoring.”
3. Recall my earlier post of Trump wanting Greenland. My speculation was he would allow Israel to inhabit this cool place of water and ice as Israel will soon be uninhabitable too. As Pan remarked, the Promised Land 2.0. Trump would be internationally lauded as the “Moses of Modernity.” His narcissism would totally peak!
4. The long war between Shia & Sunni factions will end as the distance is now too great. Same with Israeli-Arab-Palestinian war.
Chance of this occurring–>Zero!
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Instead, cue up the famous youtube video of the fight for the the last mud puddle in the movie, 2001, A Space Oddessy.
No, we are not Smarter than Yeast.
Your new tagline made me laugh (laugh much needed).
Bob, that is an intriguing bit of theoretical realpolitik.
Re Iran becoming uninhabitable, southern Iran is really going to struggle with high wet bulb temps and Tehran is apparently on borrowed time due to water limits. However, there are northern highlands and the subtropical Caspian Sea coast that might soak up some internal climate refugees, as messy as that would be.
If you can believe this link:
Trump declares Hormuz to be new US Territory
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-905890
India went from E10 to E20 for gasoline . Result sugar prices shoot up by + 50% . India the second largest exporter after Brazil must now import sugar . Fill your tank or fill your stomach ? Choose one .
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/why-india-is-considering-sugar-imports-as-prices-hit-record-levels/articleshow/133318646.cms
Charlie Hall had some insight about “survival of the fittest” in his interview on the first episode of From Alpha to Omega. Here is a link to the YouTube version. Is also a podcast.
https://youtu.be/-sjwHKBxxA4?si=6WdaSMeJu_brNxba
And here’s Timothy Snyder being interviewed on Angry Planet – “what will cause the next holocaust?”
https://youtu.be/kZ0deRtmyro
Harry S. Truman — ‘I never did give them hell. I just told the truth, and they thought it was hell.’