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“UN warns likelihood of ‘extreme weather events’ as El Nino set to intensify…
“The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in a statement on Friday that El Nino conditions had already set in and are “forecast to strengthen rapidly” between July and September. El Nino typically peaks between November and February.”
“Breaking News! The June Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly came in at 1.59°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, so we’re already in a strong El Nino [although systemic effects lag 3 – 6 months].
“The latest CFSv2 model runs now show the Nino 3.4 SST anomaly forecast peaking at 4.10°C in November.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2073020305556361284
“Friday ice update – Arctic sea ice extent is currently tied for the *2nd* lowest on record for the present date. Over the last week, the most rapid declines have been along the Atlantic ice edge as well as in the Hudson Bay.” [Zack Labe]
More graphics here:
https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/
“Warmest June in the world’s northernmost settlement [Svalbard].
“With the melting Kongsbreen glacier visible on the horizon, Ny-Ålesund at 79° North recorded a mean monthly temperature of 5.7°C… Scientists based here are witnessing first-hand some of the most rapid warming occurring anywhere in the circumpolar Arctic.”
“Forecasters have warned that a marine heatwave in the waters around the UK could hit ‘extreme levels’ next week.
“Surface waters in Northwest European seas are currently experiencing moderate to severe marine heatwave conditions, with widespread areas of “strong” conditions and some locations reaching “severe”.”
“UK farmers embrace regenerative methods after heatwave shock…
“Another summer of record-high temperatures in England is accelerating the take-up of regenerative farming, a method that helps restore soil quality by cutting out chemicals and intensive ploughing, making it better at retaining water during hot spells.”
https://www.ft.com/content/96f06629-225a-4408-b0bb-d4869bb4c3bc
“Channel Islands experience hottest June on record after scorching temperatures.
“The Channel Islands were approximately 3°C hotter than they would normally be at this time of year. Jersey beat its previous warmest June by 0.5°C and that record was set just last year. The previous warmest June in Guernsey was recorded in 1846, 0.2°C below the new record.”
https://www.itv.com/news/channel/2026-07-03/channel-islands-experience-hottest-june-on-record
“Hottest June on record in France as heatwave deaths rise to alarming levels…
““During this historic episode, temperatures of 40C were exceeded at least once over more than 40 percent of the country,” it said, adding that the country experienced an average temperature of 22.7C, 3.8C above seasonal norms for 1991 to 2020.”
“French residents panic-buy air conditioners ahead of another heatwave.
“With another heatwave expected to hit France this weekend, chaotic scenes unfolded as shoppers crowded stores, scrambling to buy air conditioners before they sold out.”
“Early heatwaves are devastating French agriculture and leaving farmers helpless…
“Underscoring the seriousness of the situation, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is set to chair an interministerial meeting on the afternoon of Friday, July 3, to review the impact of the heatwave on agriculture. Farmers are concerned about their past, present and future.”
“Thousands more evacuated as wildfires spread across southern France.
“Wildfires continue to burn across southern France today (July 3) as strong winds and high temperatures aggravate the risk of blazes starting and spreading. Thousands have been evacuated from their homes and campsites in several departments…”
“Swiss glaciers rapidly lose protective snow during Europe’s killer heatwave.
“Researchers said that the Rhone Glacier in southern Switzerland hit its “Glacier Loss Day” on 29 June. This signifies when the winter’s accumulated snow has completely melted, and the glacier begins to shed its underlying ice.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/glacier-loss-day-melting-heatwave-b3008240.html
“The extreme heat and drought have brought this year’s harvest forward by weeks, while causing dramatic crop failures in several regions [Hungary]…
“The expert believes that the poor harvest did not come as a surprise to the industry. It was already apparent during the variety presentations in the spring that the trial plots were not developing satisfactorily and that the production fields were in even worse condition.”
https://hungarytoday.hu/extreme-heat-and-drought-bring-harvest-weeks-ahead-of-schedule/
“A fire tornado was spotted in the Chornobyl zone.
“In the Chornobyl exclusion zone, a fire tornado has formed — wind, dust, and flames merged into one destructive force, UNN reports, citing the State Emergency Service… emergency workers do not retreat: day after day, they bravely hold back the fire…”
https://unn.ua/en/news/a-fire-tornado-was-spotted-in-the-chornobyl-zone
“Drought in the north; alarm over the Po’s water level dropping below zero; the Adige has enough water for 10 days [N Italy]…
“The situation in northern Italia, and in the north-east in particular, remains critical. The President of the Veneto Region, Alberto Stefani, has signed a declaration of a regional state of emergency.”
“Bad weather in Campania, flooded roads in Brusciano: cars overwhelmed by water [southern Italy].
“Already announced yesterday through a weather alert, violent thunderstorms hit this morning in the area of Naples and its province, between wind and heavy rains there is a lot of damage caused by bad weather.”
“Massive wildfire spreads in Portugal amid extreme heat and strong wind.
“A raging wildfire near Vouzela in central Portugal spread across several municipalities, driven by strong winds and extreme heat. Residents battled to defend homes as evacuations were ordered. Authorities reported thousands of hectares burned as firefighting efforts intensified.”
“Hundreds of Spanish firefighters battled an expanding wildfire near the tourist hotspot of Costa Brava on Friday…
““The column (of smoke) is very slanted, it has formed a very violent pyrocumulus” that would keep shifting, said Catalan fire service chief David Borrell. More than 200 firefighters have been deployed, including aerial resources, the service announced.”
https://en.hespress.com/141216-wildfire-menaces-spanish-tourist-hotspot-portugal-seeks-help.html
“Morocco: Temperatures up to 46°C [114.8F], hailstorms and strong winds forecast…
“A heatwave, thundery showers with hail, and strong wind gusts are expected to affect several Moroccan provinces from Thursday through Sunday, the General Directorate of Meteorology (DGM) said in an orange-level weather alert.”
https://en.yabiladi.com/articles/details/197913/morocco-temperatures-hailstorms-strong-winds.html
“NORTH AFRICA HEAT WAVE:
“Fierce heat wave in North Africa and Iberian Peninsula; 46.5 [115.7F] Bilma 0.5C from NIGER July National record; 46.3 Sidi Slimane MOROCCO. Over 43C in Spain and Portugal but it will get hotter (MUCH hotter than DC despite the ridiculous ECM “forecasts”).” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2072756891046789153
“Severe flooding leaves a trail of death and destruction in West Africa.
“Severe floods have hit Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Benin, Togo and Nigeria this week… “It is normal for it to rain at this time of year, but not with such intensity as to cause deadly flooding.””
“The summer heat intensifies, making Arab capitals among the hottest places on earth…
“..the thermal dome over the Arabian Peninsula intensifies climatically, leading to an additional rise in temperatures, which may approach 48 and sometimes exceed 50 degrees Celsius in parts of southern Iraq, Kuwait, eastern Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, according to climate estimates circulating in the region.”
“Rainfall fails to ease Iraq water crisis.
“Iraq’s water crisis remains a strategic threat despite a relative rise in water levels after recent rainfall, with southern provinces still facing drought-driven displacement and agricultural decline, the parliamentary Agriculture and Water Committee declared on Thursday.”
https://shafaq.com/en/society/Rainfall-fails-to-ease-Iraq-water-crisis
“Dust storm blankets central Iran as air quality worsens.
“The site said the extent of the dust storm showed it was a regional weather event rather than pollution from local urban or industrial sources… Repeated droughts, shrinking vegetation cover, dry wetlands and expanding dust sources had increased the frequency and severity of such events, they said.”
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202607021379
“The effects of climate change on children in Dushanbe.
“In Tajikistan, heatwaves with temperatures consistently above 40 degrees in summer are taking their toll on 2.5 million children, who are particularly vulnerable to water shortages. Almost a third of the country’s population is under 15 years of age.”
https://www.asianews.it/news-en/The-effects-of-climate-change-on-children-in-Dushanbe-65775.html
“More extraordinary heat in WEST ASIA:
“The Pakistani Town of Nokkundi at 700m asl recorded another brutally hot night with a MINIMUM of 35.5C [92.3F] which ties its record of its hottest night in history and one of the hottest ever recorded in the world at that elevation.” [Extreme Temps
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2072623496723632477
“NDMA issues alert as rapid glacier melt triggers floods across GB [Pakistan].
“Rapid glacier melting has deepened the crisis in Gilgit-Baltistan, with rising temperatures sharply increasing water discharge and mudflow in rivers and streams, causing widespread damage in downstream areas.”
https://www.dawn.com/news/amp/2012289
“India reiterates stand, says ‘Indus Waters Treaty remains in abeyance over Pakistan-sponsored terrorism’.
“India’s response comes after several Pakistani leaders including foreign minister Ishaq Dar and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) chief Bilawal Bhutto Zardari threatened India with action against the Indus Waters Treaty remaining suspended.”
“Flash floods batter Himachal, torrential rain floods Gujarat as monsoon chaos spreads.
“Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash floods and landslides at multiple locations in Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh on Friday, disrupting road connectivity. Torrents of water and debris blocked the strategic the Hindustan-Tibet Road.”
“The Dual Crisis Of Monsoon Deficit And Catastrophic Rain Across India.
“India is currently experiencing a profound meteorological dichotomy: a massive sluggishness in the advancement of the monsoon leading to widespread drought-like conditions, paired with localised cloudbursts that have triggered devastating floods.”
“Typhoid, intestinal infections surge in Pune as water scarcity bites, doctors say cases likely far higher.
“Pune is currently experiencing a sharp rise in typhoid and gastrointestinal infections linked directly to acute water scarcity, with local medical specialists warning that actual case numbers far exceed official tallies”
“HISTORIC HEAT IN MONGOLIA:
“Ekhingool 970m asl; Minimum 28.5C max. 43.2C; THI’s up to 47C [116.6F]! Highest average temperature and highest heat index ever recorded in Mongolia. 40C up to 1400m asl. At 5000 feet today in SW Mongolia it ‘s as hot as in Washington DC/but drier.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2073039044049609114
“China warming faster than global average as extreme weather intensifies, report says.
“The Blue Book on Climate Change in China 2026, published by the China Meteorological Administration, said global warming continues unabated, oceans are heating more rapidly, glaciers are melting at an accelerated pace and sea levels have reached record highs.”
“China | Historic Heatwave Intensifies with 51.4°C [124.5F] Recorded.
“The temperature reached 51.4°C in the Xinxin Salt Mine, while several cities and weather stations recorded historic highs, most notably Turpan and Turpan at 48.8°C. Forecasts indicate the possibility of even higher temperatures tomorrow.” [Arab Storms]
https://x.com/Arab_Storms/status/2073068118591807878
“Strong winds are battering the Yanhu district in Yuncheng City, Shanxi Province, China, causing massive quantities of thermal insulation panels (XPS) to fly through the air in a scene that looked as if the sky was filled with paper airplanes.”
[Arab Storms]
https://x.com/Arab_Storms/status/2072693123822834007
“Chiping County, Shandong Province, was hit by a short-term torrential rain on June 30, with 92mm [3.6 inches] of rain falling in one hour, causing severe flooding.”
[Jim Yang]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/2072696427734843855
“June 2026: Record Rainfall and Heat Waves Hit Hong Kong Amid Monsoon Conditions.
“The monthly rainfall of June 2026 was 600.5 millimetres, about 22 per cent above the normal of 491.5 millimetres… With all six months warmer than usual, the first half of 2026 was exceptionally warm.”
“Typhoon hits Hainan, triggers evacuations.
“Hainan is expected to receive the heaviest rainfall through Saturday, with 150 to 250 millimeters forecast across 11 cities and counties, and isolated areas likely to receive more than 350 mm [13.8 inches], according to the provincial meteorological service.”
https://www.chinadailyasia.com/hk/article/635910
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN SE ASIA:
“Endless record heat in THAILAND – MINIMUM 29.9 [85.8F; same as Paris the other day] Bangkok Pilot is HOTTEST JULY NIGHT EVER RECORDED IN THAILAND. Min 27.6 Laoag PHILIPPINES Record July High Min; broken 3 times in 3 days.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2072918928230150650
“Mudslides ravage South Cotabato village [Philippines].
“Mudslides triggered by heavy rains have buried vehicles and damaged properties in the interior Barangay Landan in Polomolok, South Cotabato, where clearing operations to remove debris continued on Thursday.”
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/2256597/mudslides-ravage-south-cotabato-village
“Drought tightens grip across Indonesia…
“Thousands of households across several regencies have already gone weeks without rain, prompting the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) to urge regional administrations to strengthen drought preparedness.”
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/drought-tightens-grip-across-indonesia
“Australia’s seagrass meadows under pressure as climate change turns up the heat.
“…as climate change ratchets up temperatures and triggers more frequent extreme weather events, Australia’s marine meadows are increasingly battered by intense storms and cyclones, flooding, and devastating marine heat waves. Algal blooms are also impacting seagrasses…”
“Sydney records hottest June since 1859 as expert warns new high a ‘signature’ of global warming…
“While early weather data suggested the month was merely among the warmest, the Bureau of Meteorology confirmed on Friday that June 2026 broke the all-time mean temperature record at Observatory Hill, where tracking first began in 1859.”
“NZ experiences ‘warmest June on record’ – one city hit 26C…
“In the latest monthly climate summary, Earth Science New Zealand said the average temperature in June across the country was 10.6C. It was the highest since records began at Earth Science New Zealand’s seven station temperature series began in 1909.”
https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/07/03/nz-experiences-warmest-june-on-record-one-city-hit-26c/
“‘Super typhoon’ Bavi heads for US Pacific islands.
“Residents of Guam and the Northern Marianas boarded up windows and stocked up as a monster weather system upgraded on Saturday to a “super typhoon” — the equivalent of a category-5 hurricane — approached the US Pacific territories.”
https://globalnation.inquirer.net/329654/super-typhoon-bavi-heads-for-us-pacific-islands
“Mar del Plata, Argentina, gets first snow in 35 years.
“The Argentine coastal resort city of Mar del Plata woke up blanketed in a historic layer of snow on Thursday, 2 July 2026, marking its most significant snowfall in 35 years. Driven by an intense polar air mass pushing northward from Antarctica, the rare weather event coated beaches, streets, and vehicles in white”
“The Amazon is not just under environmental assault. It’s also increasingly under criminal control…
“Across the basin, a sprawling illicit economy now thrives. Illegal gold mining, logging, land grabbing and the large-scale harvesting of wildlife, from manatees to turtles and their eggs, have fused with unregulated ranching, sustained by networks of extortion, corruption and money laundering.”
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN CENTRAL AMERICA:
“RECORDS JULY HIGH MINIMUMS – 30.1 [86.2F] Arriaga MEXICO, also hottest night ever; HONDURAS: 28.6 Choluteca, 28.2 Pto Lempira; COSTA RICA: 28.6 Puntarenas HOTTEST JULY NIGHT EVER IN COSTA RICA; 28.1 Liberia, 23.0 Santamaria AP, 22.6 Pavas.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2072667752930619658
“Thousands forced to evacuate as Colorado wildfire spreads with zero containment.
“A wildfire burning southwest of Denver has forced the evacuation of thousands of residents and destroyed more than 160 structures by Friday. Erratic winds pushed the blaze across two Colorado counties.”
“New: Study finds current US Heatwave “Shattered” All-Time Records for “Humid-Heat”.
“On the below graph the magenta dot indicates this week’s humid-heat – far above anything ever observed in the Northeast US. The event was found to be “impossible” in a pre-industrial climate.” [Jeff Berardelli]
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2073017938265694365
“US Extreme Heat Broke Power Demand Record on Largest Grid.
“Power demand on the largest US grid surged to a record this week as a searing heat dome continues to hover over the east of the country on Friday, halting some Independence Day festivities in the nation’s capital.”
“Extreme heat has disrupted Fourth of July celebrations across parts of the US, including the cancellation of a parade in Washington DC.
“The Great American State Fair in the nation’s capital – marking the country’s 250th birthday – was also temporarily shut after multiple people were treated for heat-related illnesses.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevlkzer7vdo
“In New York City, it was still 94 degrees at midnight. That’s the highest midnight temperature on record at LaGuardia Airport in Queens.
“At 12 a.m. Friday, it was: 94 degrees at LaGuardia, 92 degrees at Newark, 90 degrees at Central Park, 90 at JFK.” [Ben Noll]
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2072892872551206936
“July in Philly has become 4.4 degrees hotter since 1940 on average. Nights are even warmer…
“Over the past 85 years, Julys in Philadelphia are running on average 4.4 degrees warmer than in 1940, based on an analysis of historical weather data. That translates to an increase of about 0.52 degrees per decade.”
https://www.inquirer.com/news/philadelphia/hot-julys-philadelphia-climate-change-20260702.html
“What’s behind all the wild weather in Canada this summer?
“Intense storms in Western Canada have caused severe flooding, particularly in Manitoba. Parts of Ontario, Quebec and B.C. have been under heat waves and thunderstorm watches, while the North has been plagued by wildfires — and that’s a non-exhaustive list.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/summer-weather-canada-storms-heat-wave-2026-9.7253782
“The challenge with climate action is not about the maths – it is about the politics…
“…degrowth is not merely a hard sell. It is a politics without a base. It asks democratic governments to pursue deliberate contraction in systems where parties compete on prosperity, voters punish governments for economically bad times and organised interests fight to protect their gains. The ecological realism of degrowth is strong. Its political theory is weak.”
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2026/07/03/climate-change-politics-degrowth/
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
Here’s a few tunes for your day:
People Under The Stairs – The Effects of Climate Change on Densely Populated Areas https://youtu.be/B7M6cMrgFrI?is=iE-1fcZpLK3hkcE3
Jimi Hendrix – Star-Spangled Banner Live at Woodstock 1969
https://youtu.be/sjzZh6-h9fM?is=yxO_DedYcQUn1jVI
John Bee, I like that People Under the Stairs track – has a nice acid jazz meets hip hop vibe; reminds me a bit of British band, Galliano. Here they are in 1992, also rapping about climate change:
“The temperature be rising hotter than Encona
So best send for Noah; he be a ship owner”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnmpMDHuY1s&list=OLAK5uy_khoN6uIxL97XNZbLDVgTkocd-RU-0_nlw&index=7
Isn’t there something in Bayesian logic that if there is evidence (i.e. extreme East coast heat wave) that doesn’t fit with an a priori theory (i.e. 1 in 200 chance) then you have to go back and reassess the theory. It is far better odds than evens that another such heat wave will happen within five years. Probably much worse – i.e. deadly, because tonight in Washington it will be 38 degrees and above 60% humidity, which is about at the wet bulb safe limit for all ages.
Now if only the power would go out tonight in DC (thus no AC) that would really “drain the swamp”!
(For us illiterati, 38 C = 100 F)
Burn it all down
There are some big thunder storms heading there and there have been a couple of big solar flares as well, which can sometimes mess up grids.
Fr the 1 in 200 estimate I’d guess that they are applying statistics to a normal curve shifted right by higher average temperatures, instead of acknowledging that the breakdown in the jet stream and the early loss of sea ice means that holocene weather patterns are no longer a reasonable guide and extreme events are following fat tail distributions. It has been proposed that warming could lead to a switch to single Hadley cell in th northern hemisphere, i.e. a complete loss of both jet streams. That would be an order of magnitude bigger upset than loss of the AMOC.
George, Bayesian always immediately makes me think of British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch’s yacht of that name, which, appropriately enough, sank in a freak storm off the coast of Sicily.
We know from CERES satellite data that earth’s actual heat uptake is exceeding model projections, and we know that several earth system feedbacks have not been included in models and could prove greater than the original anthropogenic forcing (see link below). Jim Hansen could be correct, based on Paleolithic data, that climate sensitivity is greater than previously thought. And your bête noir of ocean stratification is also a wild card.
So, really there is a lot of room for things to get bad more quickly than the mainstream has anticipated, and that is indeed the new reality. I see it every morning in the language of shaken climate scientists, visibly struggling to assimilate what the data is telling them.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/warming-induced-ecosystem-emissions
It’s interesting your Hadley cell comment George.
Down under the highs struggle to reach 30° over mainland Australia then shoot south to 40°. It sure feels like a shift is occurring.
The typhoon east of the Philippines looks ominous. Long range forecasts do vary as they unfold but one model was suggesting pressure dropping to near 900?
For most of the past six months, global events have been gob smacking and in keeping with the pop quotes
Is this a fantasy
No escape from reality
Sean, my apologies that your comment got held in moderation. WordPress has a mind of its own at times.
My wild ass guess is that excess deaths secondary to impacts of ecological overshoot, climate change, and the human responses to it all (wars) etc begin to exceed births in the next few years. I’m very skeptical of the world population head count metrics, but, by some measure, we should start to see a turnaround in the number of chaps on the planet.
https://youtu.be/hd1ciPnTGKg?si=nXs0QAGf-366l8VZ
The world is about to be divided up into two zones.
“Food Fortress” Zones (Net population Growth): Wealthy, insulated nations that can use financial dominance and domestic protectionism to hoard remaining food. In these zones, births will continue to exceed deaths.
“Sacrifice” Zones (Net Collapse): In highly import-dependent, climate-vulnerable regions (e.g., parts of the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia), excess deaths will abruptly exceed births.
Every country will have both zones. Their ratio will certainly vary quite a bit. Whether differences in the fortress versus sacrifice zone ratio positively affects a given country’s ability to weather collapse will also differ due to yet more factors.
Besides which, the food fortresses depend on sacrifice zones for a wide range of things including food. For example the US imports 40% and 80% of vegetables and fruits, respectively. Europe imports much more, even cereals and feed. Not to mention spices and stimulants. If iphones and fast fasion were the extent of the west’s dependence on third world resources/labor, the food fortresses would have been erected decades ago and at least half of the native citizenry escorted out of them for good measure.
However the details work out, we are certainly headed for a world of increasingly cold-hearted triage.
“…excess deaths will abruptly exceed births.”
Interestingly, that threshold has just been crossed, albeit not abruptly, here:
“Deaths have begun to outnumber births in England and Wales from today, according to analysts. The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) think tank has called the date “death day”, with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) predicting 450,000 more deaths than births over the next decade.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/07/01/death-day-births-50-years-ons-family-england-wales-csj/
Current food exporters will
have no safety net if their harvest source itself dries up.
Purchasing power and protectionist policy is useless because there may simply be no physical grain left on the global market to buy.
In systemic risk modeling, this is known as a source-level collapse. If the United States experiences a catastrophic, multi-region harvest failure while other global producers simultaneously shut down exports to feed their own people, the U.S. faces an immediate internal crisis.
We haven’t really seen global population decline since the Black Death. It is going to be horrible beyond belief and will probably mean completely different behaviours and unrecognisable world views with collective psychosis, cults etc. In the past even major fatality events like the Great Leap Forward famine barely showed up as a kink in the population curve. More recently I think I saw that despite the death and destruction Gaza population still grew.
It is mercifully beyond my imagining, George. Hopefully, there will still be acts of kindness and heroism that shine in the darkness.
“Underscoring the seriousness of the situation, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is set to chair an interministerial meeting to review the impact of the heatwave”.
Wow … 😮 they’re calling a mEEting … and they’re going to, like, reVIEW stuff. That really underscores how seriously they’re engaged.
To further demonstrate how they are taking meaningful measures, the meeting PMs have decided to suggest that TWO keystone COPs be held annually to ensure that the fossil fuel industry sponsoring them can increase production by a meaningful measure to meet the burgeoning demand for AC & AI.
Whew! Bullet dodged.
Rob, more heat on its way. They might need to make those COP’s quarterly:
“The models now clearly converge toward a new, prolonged, and exceptional heatwave [France].
“The June 2026 scenario is repeating itself: a cold drop off the coast of Morocco, a mass of scorching air rising from the south, and a blockage under a heat dome. Temperatures above 40°C for several days, corresponding to a red alert level, are once again highly probable across a broad southwestern quarter.
“I no longer want to mask my concern. What looms on the horizon is a catastrophe for our ecosystems.”
https://x.com/SergeZaka/status/2073457143936675904
What happens when the world’s breadbaskets start failing simultaneously?
https://phys.org/news/2026-06-world-breadbaskets-simultaneously.html
The 1877 El Nino may have caused multiple bread basket failures or maybe it. was a coincidence of decadal oceanic oscillations. Maybe it doesn’t matter because this El Nino will be worse, starting from a higher baseline and coinciding with fertiliser and diesel shortages, and possibly a global supply system breakdown if there are some escalating geopolitical and economic disruptions.
The July, 2026 Nino 3.4 anomaly plume was just posted by ECMWF, and it shows a mean peak anomaly of about 3.9°C above the 1991-2020 baseline.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_plumes?base_time=202607010000&nino_area=NINO3-4
Ben Noll is reporting that cyclone Bavi will give El Nino a further kick and, “Climate model updates for July, arriving in the next week, will probably trend even stronger with their El Niño forecasts.”
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2073408914457296977
Twitter is great for getting the message from climate scientists.
I’m doing all my DoomSpending on freeze dried foods.
here’s a Claude-compressed text from a video by a fellow who follows drought in the SW USA. The last sentence is interesting.
As of July 3, 2026, Lake Mead sits at about 1,044 feet, dropping roughly a foot per week (~0.23 ft/day). Outflow (~13,030 cfs) is nearly double inflow (~9,128 cfs), because the Bureau of Reclamation is prioritizing Lake Powell and letting Mead fall first.
On a straight-line basis, Mead reaches the critical 1,035-foot mark around September 4 — “9 feet, 9 weeks.”
Factoring in record El Niño heat (100–102°F), no spring snowmelt, zero rain, and locked-in downstream agricultural demand, the accelerated “thermal curve” pulls that date to roughly August 20, about 6½ weeks out.
At 1,035 feet, Hoover Dam loses about 70–80% of its hydropower as 12 of 17 turbines shut down;
the record low is 1,040 feet, and turbine efficiency already sags below that from lost head pressure.
Lake Powell sits near 3,525 feet — nine feet above its 3,490-foot tier-2 restriction line — also dropping about a foot per week,
with upstream Flaming Gorge inflow cut in half to prop up Powell and agriculture.
On October 1, federal agencies take over if the basin states can’t agree.
Eleven Western governors signed an emergency grid-sharing pact; power shifts to costlier coal, gas, and nuclear.
just had Claude re-read the text and correct the error
now it reads: “Lake Powell sits near 3,525 feet — about 35 feet above its 3,490-foot tier-2 restriction line, where turbine limits kick in…”
Is the main issue its absolute peak, or how long it lasts, because to me it looks like its flattening out and extending at the top.
El Niño is forecast to intensify, increasing likelihood of extreme weather
https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-forecast-intensify-increasing-likelihood-of-extreme-weather