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“A record global average sea temperature in June had pushed the world into “uncharted territory,” scientists said, as global warming and the El Niño cycle combine to increase the chances of more extreme weather ahead…
“Michael Meredith, an oceanographer at the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, said the latest June sea temperature record was “very concerning”.
“While El Niño’s cycle was still in its early stages and not yet the dominant driver of global temperatures, he said, conditions could worsen significantly.”
https://www.ft.com/content/857d4917-b04b-4349-b90a-7f3cf7aabd3f?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Not to be outdone, that bratty little area of the Pacific ocean known as “Niño 3.4” also set a new record high average sea-surface temperature for the month of June, crushing the previous record set in June, 2015 by over 0.5°C.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2072344581790912526
“The new July CFS just doubled down, showing the traditional ONI peaking as the strongest El Niño in history, +4C.
“It shows the new “RONI” (adjusted for warmer oceans) index peaking at over +3C, also the strongest El Niño in history on that index.”
[Adam Furey]
https://x.com/AdamFurey4/status/2072289012446847150
“Scientists fear seabird die-off as El Niño looms: ‘We don’t know how bad this will get’.
“Each month, scientists and volunteers conduct surveys of dead seabirds and find what Russell describes as a grim assessment of the impact of a massive marine heat wave that has lingered for months off parts of the California coast.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jul/01/el-nino-birds-california
“The World Has an Anchovy Problem…
“The anchovy sits at the bottom of a crucial supply chain that sustains the $500-billion-a-year global aquaculture industry. Anchovies are the main ingredient in fishmeal… El Niño stops the normal upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich deep waters along the South American coast…”
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-07-01/the-world-has-an-anchovy-supply-problem
“Plankton Decline Across the North East Atlantic Signals Failing Ocean Health.
“…a new study has used more than six decades of data to show that plankton abundance is declining across vast swathes of the North East Atlantic—a region covering the Atlantic Ocean from Portugal to Norway, and the entirety of the North Sea.”
“England’s warmest June on record following historic heatwave…
“The month was hot by day and hot by night with June mean temperatures reaching 17.1C, nearly 3C above average. Frequent tropical nights, in which temperatures fall no lower than 20C, helped push mean temperatures up.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cjdg98g8lg8o
“Old British fridges ‘cannot cope with the heat’…
“Fridges are typically designed to operate in air temperatures up to about 32C. When temperatures rise above that – as they did last week and may again next week – they can struggle to stay cool or fail completely.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c77yejxnvpxo
“Chances are extremely high of a repeat of this ending heat wave in Europe with another one which looks like its photocopy.
“This heat wave is already starting in Morocco and Portugal and will spread North and East afterward. France will get the worst ,once again.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2072108859053719604
“Last week was the hottest ever recorded in France!
“From June 22 to 28, 2026, the average nighttime and daytime temperatures reached 29.1°C, surpassing the previous record of 28.7°C set from August 4 to 10, 2003!” [Meteo Expresse]
https://x.com/MeteoExpress/status/2071577141184020819
“France’s far right is promising air conditioners now, rather than climate solutions for later, to try and sway voters as Europe bakes under record temperatures.
“National Rally lawmaker Jean-Philippe Tanguy will unveil a proposal on Tuesday to install air conditioning in millions of public and private buildings…”
“Wildfire in southern France forces evacuations.
“A large wildfire raged in southern France on Wednesday, July 1, forcing scores of people to be evacuated, emergency services said. Hundreds of firefighters mobilised to battle the blaze in the Hérault and Aude departments (southwest), fueled by drought and strong winds.”
“Bossons Glacier 2010 | 2026 [French Alps].
“Anthropogenic warming in action! When your kids ask you what a glacier was like… you’ll still have the photos!” [Melaine Le Roy]
https://x.com/subfossilguy/status/2072002175773954382
“Poland’s record heat highlights growing water crisis, expert says…
“Poland’s record-high temperature has highlighted the country’s increasing vulnerability to water shortages, with an environmental expert warning that climate adaptation will require restoring forests, wetlands and adopting more sustainable farming practices.”
“Hungary’s Great Plain is slowly drying out, with a Lake Balaton’s worth of water missing.
“Heat and a lack of rainfall have dried out farmland quickly again this year, but on the Great Hungarian Plain the problem runs deeper. In several areas, water scarcity has become a long-term condition, leaving its mark on groundwater, agricultural land and natural habitats.”
https://dailynewshungary.com/water-shortage-hungary-great-plain-balaton/
“Two dead after storms batter Austria and Romania.
“The two countries have been battered by heavy rain and winds in recent days after a heatwave swept through much of Europe, bringing scorching temperatures and ramping up pressure on emergency services. Bucharest was hit particularly hard overnight…”
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/07/01/two-dead-after-storms-batter-austria-and-romania
“The Treasury of Bucharest Municipality was flooded due to torrential rains, affecting files and equipment.
“The Treasury of Bucharest Municipality was severely affected by a flood caused by torrential rains last night, with water penetrating the premises and damaging files, computers, and other equipment. Employees were forced to suspend activities…”
“Thunderstorms spark wildfires in Dalmatia as Croatia braces for major weather change.
“Wildfires broke out in several parts of Dalmatia on Tuesday after thunderstorms swept across the region, prompting a major firefighting response on the island of Čiovo and the Pelješac Peninsula.”
“Wildfire in central Greece triggers huge response, evacuation orders…
“The Fire Service said more than 150 firefighters with 41 fire engines and volunteers on the ground were assisted by 22 water-bombing planes and nine helicopters from the air in their efforts to contain the blaze, which was whipped on by strong winds.”
https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1308328/wildfire-in-central-greece-triggers-evacuation-order/
“Sicily between fire and hail: fires due to the heat, cloudbursts and thunderstorms on the way.
“After days of African heat, scorching temperatures and sultriness, the island is dealing with fires in several areas and with the first violent thunderstorms… In Niscemi, in the Nisseno, a violent cloudburst caused hail, flooding and traffic disruption…”
“Spain heat wave kills over 1,000 in second-hottest June ever…
“The extreme heat broke all-time temperature records in several European countries, including Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, with France experiencing its highest-ever nighttime temperatures.”
https://www.dw.com/en/europe-heat-wave-100-dead-spain/a-77781523
“The Santa Elena forest fire forces the evacuation of nearly 200 people [Andalusia]…
“Before nightfall, the device reached its greatest deployment, with 19 air resources – eleven planes and eight helicopters – and a large ground operation made up of six Fire Reinforcement Brigades (BRICA), eight groups of forest firefighters, three fire trucks…”
“Costa del Sol doubles invasive Asian seaweed removal efforts.
“Asian seaweed (Rugulopteryx okamurae) has invaded the Andalusian coast, demanding record removal efforts and forcing local authorities to activate extraordinary budgets and daily machinery.”
“The Mediterranean Sea heatwave is so severe, I ran out of colors in my color table. Sea surface temps are peaking at 8C/ 15F above normal!
“Perhaps more impressive is how expansive the area of +6C/ +10°F anomalies are (in white). Much of the water is 29-32C/ 84-90F. The Sea is now record hot for early July beating – you guessed it – the old record set last year.” [Jeff Berardelli]
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2072297209366798589
“Morocco issues ‘red’ alert for forest fires in 20 provinces…
“The fire risk warning comes alongside a weather alert issued by the General Directorate of Meteorology regarding a heat wave from Tuesday through Thursday, with temperatures reaching up to 46 °C (115 °F) in some regions of the country.”
“Ivory Coast, Ghana Floods Claim 71 Lives as Rains Intensify.
“Heavy rains have left at least 71 people dead across Ivory Coast and Ghana, following intense torrential downpours. The severe weather peaked over the weekend and early weekdays, causing widespread flooding and devastating landslides.”
“Torrential rain wreaks havoc in Lagos [Nigeria]…
“Many were rendered homeless as floods took over several people’s homes. Many were stranded on the road as the flood caused heavy gridlock. Some warehouses were destroyed by the surging floods. Many businessmen lost millions to the flood that invaded their shops and warehouses, destroying goods worth millions of Naira.”
https://thesun.ng/torrential-rain-wreaks-havoc-in-lagos/
“Sugar giant faces court over deadly flood…
“The villagers of Kanseche in rural Malawi claim that flood defences protecting the Nchalo sugar plantation owned by ABF’s African subsidiary Illova Sugar constrained the natural flow of the Mwanza River during Storm Ana, channelling floodwater away from the sugar estate and directly towards the village.”
https://theecologist.org/2026/jul/01/sugar-giant-faces-court-over-deadly-flood
“Vulnerable Mudug families left behind in drought-hit village.
“Pastoralist families left behind in Dajimaale village in Somalia’s central Mudug region are facing severe food and water shortages after three consecutive years of failed rains destroyed their livestock and dried up the water wells.”
“At Mercy of Dust: Farmers Fear for Their Crops.
“Farmers across the Kurdistan Region of Iraq KRI are increasingly battling dust storms that have become more frequent in recent years. The growing intensity of these storms has had a direct impact on agricultural production, damaging crops and reducing yields.”
https://kirkuknow.com/en/fromPeople/985
“CENTRAL ASIA EXTRAORDINARY HEAT:
“From Iran and Pakistan (near WORLD RECORDS hot nights Mins 34C at 1000m asl !) through Central Asia the extreme heat is reaching NW China with up to 48.4C today in Xinjiang. Next 3 days we might break WORLD RECORDS for above 40 latitude with 52C+ [125.6F]!” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2072350430927974628
“Melting mountains and returning floods — Swat’s climate emergency.
“On June 27, authorities issued a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (Glof) alert for the northern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, including Swat, warning that soaring temperatures were expected to accelerate snow and glacier melt across mountain valleys…”
https://www.dawn.com/news/2011847
“At least eight killed, over two dozen injured in torrential rains in Pakistan.
“At least eight people were killed and more than two dozen were injured in rain-related incidents in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Punjab provinces in the last 24 hours, authorities said on Thursday. Pakistan remains highly vulnerable to extreme weather events…”
https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2649370/pakistan
“‘World Order Will Collapse’: Pakistan’s Cry For Help Over Indus Waters…
“Amid fears of water shortage during the severe heatwave, a desperate Pakistan hosted an “international conference”, warning that every “world order that is on paper” will collapse if the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is not upheld.”
“In India’s Mountains, Climate Change Is Rewriting the Map of Disease…
“…beyond the visible economic and environmental damage, scientists and public health experts warn that something deeper is unfolding: climate change is steadily reshaping disease patterns across the country.”
https://healthpolicy-watch.news/in-indias-mountains-climate-change-is-rewriting-the-map-of-disease/
“Mumbai Rain Havoc Captured In 10 Images: Flooded Roads, Fallen Trees, Traffic Chaos…
“The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) Colaba and Santacruz observatories recorded 30 mm and 108 mm of rainfall, respectively, between 8.30 am and 5.30 pm, according to the BMC’s monsoon report. Several parts of Mumbai had received over 100 mm of rainfall in the 24 hours ending 8 am on Wednesday.”
“Rainfall in India in July, traditionally the wettest month of the monsoon season in the country, will be below normal at less than 94 per cent of the usual, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned.
“This comes on the back of June having emerged as the driest in over a decade and the fifth-driest since records were maintained starting 1901.”
“Beijing’s Shijingshan District was hit by a torrential downpour in the early hours of June 30, with 65mm of rain falling in one hour, causing severe flooding on some roads.”
“Jingdezhen, Jiangxi Province, has been hit by heavy rainfall for three consecutive days, with rainfall exceeding 400mm [16 inches], causing floods in mountainous areas.” [Jim Yang]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/2071931851724439748
“China’s Politburo orders rapid-response overhaul in the face of floods and extreme heat…
“The Politburo urged local governments to take “forceful” measures against drought, flooding and typhoons, to “always put the safety of people’s lives first”, evacuate in a timely manner and prevent mass casualties.”
“Warmer seas bring endangered whale shark to Jeju coast [S Korea]…
“While whale sharks are typically found in tropical waters, they have been sighted in waters near Korea in recent years, a trend attributed to warmer ocean temperatures as a result of climate change.”
“Kidapawan’s warning as the Philippines faces climate shocks.
“The 2016 Kidapawan bloodshed remains a defining moment in Philippine history, exposing the fragility of governance when confronted with climate shocks and food insecurity. As the country braces for the 2026-2027 Super El Niño, the lessons of Kidapawan are more urgent than ever.”
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/2255828/kidapawans-warning-as-the-philippines-faces-climate-shocks
“RECORD HEAT IN INDONESIA:
“Record heat never ends in Indonesia. Today Palu broke for the 5th time this months its record of the warmest June night on record with a Minimum Temperature of 26.4C [79.5F].” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2071922850831773931
“Records topple for rain in NT’s dry season [Australia].
“Unseasonably heavy and historic rain has smashed long-standing weather records across Australia’s Northern Territory (NT) during what is traditionally the start of its dry season… Humpty Doo has just recorded its highest rainfall…”
“Parched Canterbury braces for potentially record-breaking El Niño [NZ].
“El Niño has been declared and could intensify into one of the strongest events on record, raising the risk of a dry, windy spring and a wider economic squeeze across the South Island… Christchurch recorded its driest month on record in May.”
“EXTRAORDINARYHEAT IN CENTRAL AMERICA:
“Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica. Almost every single record of July highest Minimum has been smashed with absurd margins never seen before – minimums up to 30C [86F]. We are witnessing something beyond any imagination.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2072312907958743438
“Historic Rainfall in Avoyelles Parish: 29.06 Inches in Just 12 Hours!
“The June 18 flood in Avoyelles Parish is no longer only being remembered as historic by those who lived through it. It is now officially part of Louisiana weather history. The verified total was 29.06 inches. Even more remarkable, officials said the full 29.06 inches fell in less than 12 hours, though the record is measured as a 24-hour rainfall total.”
https://www.avoyellestoday.com/historic-rainfall-in-avoyelles-parish-29-06-inches-in-just-12-hours/
“As Water-Sharing Negotiations Heat Up, Wildlife Habitats Along the Shrinking Colorado River Are at Risk.
““This year is stunningly bad, without any parallel in the recent historical record,” says Colorado State University climate scientist Brad Udall… Finding a way out of chronic crisis is crucial to the future of the river’s rich, diverse ecosystems…”
“Mesa County rescuers coordinate largest-ever evacuation of 123 campers as Snyder fire exploded near the Colorado River…
“By dawn, the Weinberg crew was part of one of the largest evacuation missions in the history of Mesa County Search and Rescue, which enrolled Union Pacific rail-riding trucks to pull more than 120 rafters and several dogs out of the Ruby-Horsethief Canyon as the Snyder fire exploded.”
https://coloradosun.com/2026/07/01/mesa-county-search-and-rescue-ruby-horsethief/
“A boiling Independence Day week in the East – record heat on the Great Lakes with Minimums locally >80F in Michigan, Wisconsin and Canada.
“HOTTEST NIGHT IN HISTORY in some stations – Min 26.8C/80F Sarnia; Min 26.1C London. Record heat is moving to the East Coast: it will be historic.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2072402349105017289
“To show how extreme this humidity is: Cleveland closed June with six consecutive monthly hourly dew-point records set or tied, then opened July with seven more in a row.
“That is 13 consecutive clock-hour records or ties in a dataset back to 1931.”
[The Global Warmer]
https://x.com/TheGlobalWarmer/status/2072284906617483553
“Roads Turn Into Ice Rivers After Summer Storm In US’s Idaho.
“Severe storms brought unusual weather to parts of Idaho during the first full weekend of summer, covering roads with hail, causing flooding, and creating dangerous travel conditions. Heavy rain, strong winds, and hundreds of lightning strikes affected several areas.”
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/roads-turn-into-ice-rivers-after-summer-storm-in-uss-idaho-11707498
“‘Extreme weather’ wipes out Ottawa’s Canada Day activities, including fireworks.
“Wednesday’s extreme weather caused the cancellation of Ottawa’s evening Canada Day activities, including the fireworks display, as homes flooded, roads were closed and thunderstorms led to power outages.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/canada-day-activities-in-ottawa-cancelled-9.7255350
“Unprecedented flooding devastates Manitoba’s Parkland as travel warnings remain in place.
“”The flooding that we’re seeing in this region is unprecedented,” Kinew said. “It’s coming less than a month after the last round of unprecedented flooding, so you can imagine the sort of terrible impacts that are happening here.””
“Dangerous Humid Heat Days have more than Doubled Globally since 1970…
“The report is based on data from 1970-2025, globally. It found that dangerous humid heat days, globally, have increased from an average of 10 per year in the 1970s to 23 days per year in the past decade (2016-2025).”
“Extreme weather is affecting AI: global AI data centers face threats from extreme heat.
“Major tech firms are increasingly recognizing the challenges posed by climate factors to AI data center operations and are exploring solutions. Microsoft stated it is managing risks associated with extreme heat and severe weather through strategic site selection, enhanced redundancy systems, and real-time monitoring.”
“‘We are screwed’: People near data centers dread heat wave pollution…
“Searing temperatures this week could push energy demand to record levels… To relieve some of the pressure, the Department of Energy granted permission Tuesday to the region’s grid operator, PJM Interconnection, to potentially force data centers to use backup diesel generators.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
It seems there is something fundamentally wrong with how models are predicting even the reasonably near term climate, beyond just usual scientific conservatism, and with expectations of how we will respond, beyond optimism bias.
After one year at 1.5 the frequency and severity of extreme events look enough to make adaption very difficult: crops are failing, droughts and floods are hitting the same areas before they properly recover, wildfires are burning through the year and the scars are subsequently washed away, forests are accelerating towards savannahs, heat waves are far outside normally distributed weather patterns. That is all happening even though the hydrologic cycle disruptions seem to be taking a few years to reach what would be their equilibrium state for a given temperature.
The earth energy imbalance is so high, so far above the models and climbing rather than falling as they predict, that there is a lot of heating still lagging. The albedo is falling at record, and seemingly accelerating, rates. So even without CO2e increases the imbalance, and hence warming, will still go up. This is inline with the current CO2e being compatible with 4.5 to 5 degrees warming in the past (possibly higher now, as arming is much faster). It may be worse still, because feedbacks that were assumed long term and only impacting the earth system sensitivity (almost certainly indicating a hot house ultimate condition now) are possibly already showing up.
The warming is mainly occurring as jumps in El Nino years, with lower growth or minor cooling between. A year after the coming El Nino my WAGs are that we will have jumped to 1.7 to 1.8 warming, which will result in about 3 times increase in extreme events (i.e. a given event will be three times more likely). It seems likely that we are switching to a distribution with a fat tail so the most extreme events will be significantly more common than expected – these will be increasingly destructive and deadly, and leave areas permanently damaged and deserted.
I don’t think there is any way we will be able to adapt, even if the warming suddenly stopped there, and 2.5 degrees will be the certain end of civilisation. That is looking like 2035 or earlier now. Everything that would be needed for adaption is going in the exact opposite direction – i.e. less global co-operation, decreasing energy supplies, lack of water, exhaustion of accessible minerals, economic breakdown, short-termism, demagoguery, polarisation and tribalism etc. and will exacerbate the collapse rather than ameliorate it.
It will be interesting to compare this time next year with now. I think we’ll have moved away from thoughts of adaption and resilience towards triage, and everyone will be trying to make a case, subtly or not, to be at the front of the queue.
Thanks for this, George!! Another succinct and compelling analysis.
Yes exactly. Right on.
I agree.
George, that is well said. I agree on all counts.
You can see that shift to a distribution with a fat tail unfold in these threads now – the 87,000-year return period for Bordeaux’s heat record, Germany having earth’s hottest night above 50°N latitude, the 4.4 sigma El Nino anomaly, that station in the Russian Arctic exceeding its heat record by 9.2C, the 8C heat anomaly in the Mediterranean – crazy events happening in quick succession.
“France’s far right is promising air conditioners now, rather than climate solutions for later, to try and sway voters as Europe bakes under record temperatures.”
Free ACs would be a great policy if they actually meant it. Unfortunately, like most publicly contested/advertised policies (as opposed to real policies that persist across governments) these days, it’s not meant to be a serious policy. It’s a talking point just like it’s rival position “climate solutions for later”. Everyone knows neither talking point will be seriously pursued, but it’s the thought that counts.
M&A Activity: Private equity and investment arms are actively buying up heating and cooling network operators, with J.P. Morgan itself leading acquisitions in the European cooling infrastructure market to capitalize on the continent’s rising temperatures.
And once those are acquired, rebrand them as green cooling, if that’s not already a thing. Ah, it is indeed *slow clap*
https://cielowigle.com/blog/green-air-conditioning/
More air-conditioner melees breaking out in France, I see. What a sign of the times. Feels like the start of a disaster movie:
“Hundreds of people were besieging Lidl supermarkets in and around Paris on Thursday, with scuffles and shouting matches breaking out as residents scrambled to get their hands on bargain air-cooling units before the next heatwave hits the French capital.”
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20260702-france-race-get-hold-of-air-conditioning-ac-third-heatwave-looms
Let then eat AC
Let them eat AC
“Extreme weather is affecting AI: global AI data centers face threats from extreme heat.”
Gee, what a shame. Maybe they’ll die out before we do.
🙏👏🙏👏🙏👏
Goes to show that ‘they’ drank their own Kool-Aid and believed that all that climate science wasn’t real. Amazing lack of understanding of physics.
Carla, my apologies that your comment got held in moderation. I think it must be because you are first time commenter, in which case, welcome to the site.
When you are hotter than hell: gold will be easily traded for the many grams of silver, the pounds of copper, aluminum, and steel in an AC unit or refrigerator/freezer.
How soon before the homeowner decides that cool comfort and ice cream is more important than owning a car? Are you planning for when you cannot afford both AC and a car?
I suggest a dwelling north of 50 latitude. A good night’s sleep between cool sheets will energize you for the coming days of walking, bicycling, and manual labor in the fields.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast
We’re at nearly 56°N here on Islay, Bob – but I’m not going to start feeling too smug with AMOC faltering.
I think I’ll just sit around do nothing. I wouldn’t want to be the only one in 8 billion that took action after it’s too late.
I think I’ll just sit around & do nothing. I wouldn’t want to be the only one in 8 billion that took action after it’s too late.