“2026 YEAR WITHOUT WINTER. Greenland will remember for years this non-existent winter with temperatures, in the central-west, typical of October.
“The monthly anomaly this January 2026 in Kitsissorsuit is close to +15C [27F] above average which is a HISTORIC WORLD RECORD.” [ExtremeTemps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2016522113885323272
“What happens to forests when the planet warms up too fast.
“New sediment records from the Norwegian Sea offer a rare, close-up look at how quickly nature can unravel when the planet warms. During a past episode of extreme global warming, coastal forests along the Arctic margin collapsed within just a few centuries.”
https://www.earth.com/news/what-happens-to-forests-when-the-planet-warms-up-too-fast/
“Records fall as Storm Chandra brings flooding to the UK and Ireland.
“Storm Chandra brought heavy rain, flooding and strong winds. A major incident was declared in Somerset with record river levels. Also record rainfall in County Down.”
“‘Like a sea out there’: flooded Somerset residents wonder how water can be managed…
“With another Met Office yellow warning for rain coming into force for parts of the south-west of England on Thursday, the council fears more homes and businesses will go underwater, and has declared a major incident.”
“A climate-linked octopus surge is reshaping UK marine ecosystems.
“A new scientific report reveals a climate-driven octopus surge off southwest UK waters, disrupting marine ecosystems and shellfish fisheries, highlighting warming seas, cross-Channel larval transport, and the urgent need for early warning systems and adaptive fisheries management.”
“National survey finds microplastic pollution around Britain’s coastline could be double than previously recorded.
“Microplastic pollution in the seas around Great Britain has been found at significantly higher concentrations than previously recorded by a joint project between the University of Portsmouth and GB Row Challenge.”
“At least five killed after Storm Kristin hits Portugal…
“The storm, which the government described as an “extreme climactic event”, left schools shuttered, buildings damaged and travel severely disrupted. In the coastal city of Figueira da Foz, a Ferris wheel overturned and several vehicles were hit when part of a roof was torn from a building.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c205yl3kvzmo
“Live: Evacuation of residents of Los Puentes in Jaén and municipalities [Spain]…
“Storm Kristin has entered the province of Jaén with force and leaves road closures, interrupted rail traffic to Córdoba and an injury, for the moment… In the rest of the province, warnings and risks due to river overflows are accumulating.”
“Tornado hits Turkey’s Antalya, causes widespread damage.
“The storm hit hardest in Aksu, where a tornado formed over the Aksu Stream, lifting boats onto the shore and smashing others along the banks. Greenhouses collapsed, roofs were ripped away, and trees and power lines came down.”
https://www.euronews.com/video/2026/01/27/tornado-hits-turkeys-antalya-causes-widespread-damage
“Water crisis in Cyprus: citizens urged to reduce water consumption.
“On January 26, the Cypriot authorities declared a critical water situation due to a prolonged drought. Despite recent rainfall, the situation has hardly improved: the inflow of water to the reservoirs is only about 2 million cubic meters, and their filling level has dropped to a record low of 10%.”
“HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN AFRICA – hundreds of records have been falling all over Africa every day of the month.
“Incredible “double-double” record again in the CONGO’s capitals: 36.2C [97.2F] Kinshasa, 35.9C Brazzaville. Hottest January day in history for both. They did the same thing in December!”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2016581718443249979
“Nigerian farmers complaint that climate change is affecting staple food crops…
“Climate change remains one of the most critical challenges confronting Nigeria’s farming sector. The country’s agriculture is mainly rain-fed (not irrigated). This makes it highly vulnerable to changes in climate and extreme weather events…”
“Drought in the east, floods in the south: Africa battered by climate change…
“I spoke to a local chief in Mandera, Adan Molu Kike. He was a quiet, unassuming elderly man who went out of his way to explain to me how devastating the recent drought is. “Our animals started dying in July last year, and they are still dying,” he told me.”
“More records in South Africa – min 22.3 [72.1F] Paddock Tied its warmest night.
“More north, Kenya exceptional high Min 27.7 at Lodwar 0.1C from January national record of highest minimum and hottest night today in the Northern Hemisphere.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2016080871452008798
“Environment minister pelted with coal at fiery power plant pollution debate [Israel].
“A chunk of coal was hurled toward Environmental Protection Minister Idit Silman during a contentious public hearing on Wednesday evening on the continued use of coal at Israel’s largest power plant, but she was not injured, police and witnesses said.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/environment/article/b1hf0odizg
“‘Under a dome of smog’: Why are Central Asian cities among the world’s most polluted?
“The capital of Kyrgyzstan is not an outlier. Across Central Asia, rapid economic growth, surging car ownership and weak environmental controls have combined with geography and weather to push major cities into the ranks of the world’s most polluted.”
“Record snowfall paralyses Naran, Kaghan [Pakistan].
“Naran and Kaghan have experienced record-breaking snowfall, paralysing daily life, blocking roads, and cutting electricity supply for the past five days, causing severe difficulties for residents.”
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2589403/record-snowfall-paralyses-naran-kaghan
“Farmers dread losses as hail, rain flatten vegetable crops in Haryana [India].
“Farmers said the first spell of rainfall, accompanied with hailstorm, damaged their mustard, potato and other vegetable crops on a large scale. However, barley and wheat crops escaped as much harm due to younger seedlings.”
“China sees most high temperature days on record in 2025.
“China’s national average annual temperature hit a record for a second year at 10.9 degrees Celsius (51.6 degrees Fahrenheit), with the most high-temperature days ever recorded, the country’s Meteorological Administration said on Thursday.”
“Built on ice, not land: The city where the ground is melting.
“In eastern Siberia, one of the world’s coldest cities is built on a foundation that is slowly changing. Yakutsk stands on permafrost, ground that has remained frozen for thousands of years and long provided a stable base for homes, roads, and public infrastructure.”
“Over 2,000 stranded at Japan’s Hokkaido airport amid record snowfall.
“Local media reported that more than 90 flights were canceled at the airport on Monday due to severe snow conditions. Airport authorities opened parts of the terminal overnight to accommodate stranded travelers.”
“Budget slashed for Indonesia’s rescue agency despite disaster surge.
“Indonesia’s main rescue agency had its funding cut by a parliamentary panel on Wednesday as part of a plan to divert government expenditure to other programmes, despite concerns over the number of disasters the agency has to deal with.”
“Record heat never ends in INDONESIA:
“37.4c [98.9F] Kaimana West Papua destroyed its record of January hottest day, after breaking that of December. Kaimana has been breaking and re-breaking records continuously every month since 2019.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2016132524049891529
“North Queensland farmers rescued from rooftops as floodwaters surge…
“The Feral View property owners, west of Georgetown in the state’s northwest, were forced to abandon their home as the Gilbert River’s water levels rose with terrifying speed, leaving them stranded without power or mobile service.”
“Record-breaking Australia heatwave fuels bushfires, cuts power to thousands…
“David Crock, a forecaster from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said the heat was being driven by climate change and called the temperatures “very unusual”. “The severity of this heatwave is comparable to the heatwave in January 2009, and also the heatwave in January 1939,” Crock said.”
“‘It takes a toll’: Victorian farmers endure record heat and drying winds…
“Key farming areas in Victoria have smashed temperature records this week with the mercury climbing to 48.9C – but farmers say rather than one-offs, it’s the succession of hot, windy and dry conditions that takes the real toll.”
“After bone-dry January, Adelaide faces low summer rainfall record.
“With little if any rain on the horizon to close out January, or for the first few days of February, it’s possible that this could be Adelaide’s driest summer on record… This year, just 2.8mm fell in December, so after a rainless January to date, 2.8mm is the city’s running tally for the 2025/26 summer.”
“Pacific Islands: The hidden mental health costs of climate change…
“Suicide rates soar during instances of extreme heat. The prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder remains elevated for years following flooding. Bushfires bring anxiety, depression, and profound psychological distress.”
“Marine heatwave in Tongan waters brings record temperatures.
“Marine heatwave conditions are intensifying in Tongan waters, after Nuku’alofa experienced its hottest day on record, hitting 34.6 degrees last week. Tonga Meteorological Services warned today that a significant rise in ocean temperatures around Tonga will likely see the marine heatwave conditions persist into February.”
https://matangitonga.to/2026/01/27/marine-heatwave-tongan-waters-brings-record-temperatures
“‘The land will be left as ashes’: why Patagonia’s wildfires are almost impossible to stop.
“Wildfires are also hitting Chile, with at least 18 people killed this month. Environmental groups and workers blame extreme weather, which scientists link to the climate crisis and cuts to national fire-prevention budgets.”
“Between dust and deluge: The women on Brazil’s water frontlines.
“In the drought-stricken backlands of the sertão and the flooded river communities of the Amazon, women lead their households and communities through survival and recovery. They stand at the frontline of these climate extremes—when water comes too quickly, and when it doesn’t come at all.”
https://www.preventionweb.net/news/between-dust-and-deluge-women-brazils-water-frontlines
“Amazon is getting drier as deforestation shuts down atmospheric rivers.
“Deforestation has reduced rainfall over the Amazon, suggesting the rainforest could reach a catastrophic tipping point sooner than expected. Satellite observations and rain gauge measurements show that the amount of rain falling in the southern Amazon basin declined by 8 to 11 per cent between 1980 and 2019.”
“Heavy rains trigger large-scale flooding across Colombia’s Medellín.
“Severe flooding has struck the Colombian city of Medellín after heavy rains on January 28 caused the Medellín River to overflow its banks, inundating large parts of the city.”
https://caliber.az/en/post/heavy-rains-trigger-large-scale-flooding-across-colombia-s-medellin
“Dutch government discriminated against Bonaire islanders over climate adaptation, court rules…
“Bonaire, a Dutch special municipality since 2010 – though the Netherlands has been present on the island for about 400 years – is particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise, extreme heat and other climate-related impacts…”
“Record warmth in The BAHAMAS where Freeport had a Minimum of 24.6C/76F warmest January night in history.
“Another tropical night in BERMUDA at 32N latitude, absolutely incredible. Records have fallen in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2016171941695258716
“HISTORIC HEAT IN FLORIDA – hottest January day ever recorded in the State tied yesterday with 90F.
“Heat records have been falling from Greenland to Costa Rica but zero cold records. But from today Florida will experience a long wintry cold spell…”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2016338171714535630
“Will a bomb cyclone hit the East Coast over the weekend? The latest forecast shows potential for monster snowstorm…
“Given the intensity of the storm, there is a threat for strong winds capable of power outages and tree damage along the East Coast, as the storm tracks from the Carolinas up to New York City and New England.”
“Record-breaking snow wallops Anchorage, closing schools early and wreaking havoc on the roads.
“Anchorage hit a new mark for the snowiest January on record. By late Tuesday afternoon, the National Weather Service said, more than 7 inches of snow had fallen since Monday night, pushing the city to the new record of almost 40 inches for the month.”
“As an Oil Rig Topples in the Alaskan Arctic and Ignites a Fire, Exploration There Continues.
“A rig fell over onto the tundra as it was on its way to drill in ConocoPhillips’ winter exploration program. Opponents of the plan warned it was rushed and lacked adequate environmental protections.”
“Overlooked threat: Dams trigger temperature-driven disease in iconic salmonid fish…
“The results were compelling: reservoirs releasing surface water substantially raise downstream temperatures (by up to 4–5 °C) during the summer. These warmed sections turn into hotspots for the myxozoan parasite Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, which causes a deadly disease among salmonids.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-01-overlooked-threat-trigger-temperature-driven.html
“The Sea Urchin Apocalypse Is Real, and It Might Be Spreading Globally, Scientists Warn…
“Sea urchins are crucial to their shallow tropical environments since they feed on and keep algae populations in check that might otherwise threaten the survival of coral reefs. So the loss of these invertebrates could have untold destructive effects on other marine life.”
“Overshoot: The World Is Hitting Point of No Return on Climate.
“With warming set to pass the critical 1.5-degree limit, scientists are warning that the world is on course to trigger tipping points that would lead to cascading consequences — from the melting of ice sheets to the death of the Amazon rainforest — that could not be reversed.”
https://e360.yale.edu/features/1.5-degrees-tipping-points
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
Some comments on Baker-Hughes rig count through December 2025, in no particular order. UK is down to four oil and one gas, the lowest recorded, and probably since early 70s. GoM is at six deepwater and one shallow, the lowest recorded except for one month which had three hurricanes, and probably lowest since 50s. Norway seems to be falling now after a bit of a post Covid recovery. Offshore China had a peak through 2024 but has steadily fallen by 30% since, and seems likely to drop further. Namibia had no rigs in December. OPEC plus countries are staying level overall (numbers for ex USSR and Iran aren’t collected). Brazil peaked in Spring 2025 and has fallen since, pretty much in-line with the number of FPSOs ramping up.
Also on that oilprice oil discoveries article how have Rystad 2024 oil numbers gone from 1.8 in its reserve report from last July, which seemed far too low, to 7 now, which seems a bit high based on S&P and Westwood drilling reports for that year. It would also be good to know how much is condensate, a couple of the biggest 2025 finds seemed to be at least partly gas-condensate.
One of the only predictions I thought I might have got right was that offshore exploration would stop in the early 30s and greenfield developments would dwindle away over the next few years, but that is looking a bit too late now.
That Yale article is pretty good but I don’t like the word “overshoot” which implies a temporary condition that can and will be corrected. That is not going to happen as we accelerate towards a hot house. “Transgress”, “breach”, “traduce” or “exceed” would be better.
I’ve just finished “The Story of CO2 is the Story of Everything” by Peter Brennen, which is mostly excellent but the final hopium chapter is absolutely bonkers. First off he doesn’t seem to know how to finish so he just repeats the same things a couple of times. Then he reckons because we haven’t looked properly for elemental hydrogen reserves there must be enough down there to save us all. Then because the 2005/2008 peak oil predictions were wrong all peak predictions for all resources are likely wrong.
That last statement is very much a logical fallacy.
I think I will publish a video unloading my frustration today and call it simply, “Consequences” before getting back into a steady mediation practice.
Thanks George. On your comment about word choice, it doesn’t matter what word is used to describe Wile E. Coyote’s predicament of levitating out beyond the cliff with no way to get back onto the cliff, which, as you pointed out, is a permanent, non-reversible situation. The bigger issue may be the public’s carbon tunnel vision, no so much word choice.
Personally, I’ll stick with “overshoot,” at least in honor of the Limits to Growth team, William Catton, William Rees, etc.
Biological overshoot is one thing and it will be corrected – probably with an undershoot that extirpates humans, but the Yale article was about overshoot of 1.5 degrees.
Thank you, George, for that illuminating summary. It’s both amazing and disconcerting to see us hitting these economic/energetic limits in real time.
Aberdeen, from whence my grandfather came, is right on the front line of the North Sea atrophy (the article assumes an energy transition and primarily blames government policy for the city’s predicament):
“A new report has warned that Aberdeen is being pushed towards an economic collapse reminiscent of the demise of the coal industry…
“Nick Tyrone, argues the energy sector “stands on a cliff edge”, adding: “We are running out of time to save the energy sector – in Aberdeen, in Scotland, in the United Kingdom.””
https://www.aberdeenlive.news/news/aberdeen-news/warning-aberdeen-being-pushed-towards-10778781
When Money No Longer Organises
On energy, chaos, and the end of the organising system
There are moments when an economic system does not collapse, but ceases to be self-evident. The signals of such moments are rarely spectacular. Extreme weather events may sometimes make the pattern more visible, but they are not the cause. What truly changes is more subtle: money loses its ability to impose order.
This is what is now taking shape around the global fossil energy system. Remarkably, the problem is not that oil or gas would be “running out.” In many regions, production is still technically possible. Fields exist, installations are in place, plans are ready.
Yet increasingly, projects fail not because of geology, but because of conditions: infrastructure, logistics, maintenance, political stability, available labour, time and resources like water. These are not secondary issues; they are the system itself. When a major energy company such as Chevron says in Iraq that it is “willing to invest, but only if the conditions are right,” this sounds like a negotiating position. In reality, it is a diagnosis. It means: we no longer control the whole.
That “if” is new. It marks a shift from inevitability to conditionality. Projects are no longer choices, but options. Investments are no longer decisions, but postponed commitments.
This pattern recurs across very different cases: oil fields in the Middle East, Arctic gas projects, ageing rail and port infrastructure, nuclear new-build in Europe. Everywhere the same picture emerges: the willingness to act still exists, but only as long as the system behaves.
This is not a classic crisis. It is something else: the recognition of instability.
What stands out is that money makes less and less difference. Not because capital is unavailable, but because it is losing its organising power. Higher prices, better contracts, or state guarantees prove insufficient to remove structural uncertainty.
This points to something more fundamental. Money functions properly only within a stable system. It can distribute risk, bridge time, and guide investment — as long as the underlying order remains intact. When that order itself begins to wobble, money becomes indifferent. It still circulates, but it can no longer enforce coherence.
In the past, major technological or economic transitions often followed periods of crisis. Old explanatory models failed, new ones took over. But those transitions unfolded within a world that otherwise remained stable. What we are experiencing now is different. The instability does not lie in one sector or theory, but in the background itself: energy supply, logistics, infrastructure, maintenance cycles. These are not domains that can still be easily restructured or replaced.
As a result, no new coherent future model emerges, but rather a series of narratives: hydrogen as promise, large-scale nuclear power as a way of buying time, remote regions as new frontiers. They suggest order, but are mainly attempts to mask uncertainty.
It is no coincidence that these signals become visible first in fossil energy systems. They are large-scale, capital-intensive, and dependent on long, faultless chains. They require permanent coordination between technology, politics, and logistics. Once that coordination falters, the system does not immediately shut down. It becomes more expensive, more fragile, and more selective. Not everything stops — but no one wants to remain responsible for the whole.
With that, the organising principle that enabled two centuries of economic expansion begins to disappear. Policy turns into theatre. Grand announcements replace executability. Exercises in Arctic regions suggest readiness without a clear objective. Investments become surrounded by conditions that no one can fully guarantee.
And increasingly, the same sentence is heard:
“We will do it — if the conditions are right.”
This is not a detail in contract negotiations. It is a sign that the system has lost its self-evident coherence. And that is the moment when money, plans, and narratives lose their grip — and are no longer capable of restoring a coherent energy order.
“What stands out is that money makes less and less difference. Not because capital is unavailable, but because it is losing its organising power.”
This is a very good insight, Zip.
The nervous system is still sending messages to the muscles but these are no longer translating into efficient, co-ordinated movement. The artificial financial stimulus we’ve seen since 2008 has been like giving shots of speed to a fatigued sportsman. You might keep him going but the quality of his performance is going to degrade – and at some point a heart attack will eventuate.
If you cannot hold it, you don’t own it!
These unfortunate people should have received immediate physical ownership the minute they laid out their cash:
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China’s ‘gold fever’ sparks US$1 billion scandal as trading platform collapses
Chinese platform JWR faced a liquidity crisis as investors rushed to cash in on surging gold prices, leaving customers billions of yuan out of pocket.
The sudden demise of a major gold trading platform has rocked the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, leaving tens of thousands of retail investors with combined losses totalling more than 10 billion yuan (US$1.4 billion), according to investors and domestic media reports.
Chinese retail investors have rushed to capitalise on the unprecedented rally in global gold prices in recent months, leading many to put their funds into the online metals trading platform JWR.
Global gold prices have surged in recent months, leading many retail investors in China to pour funds into unlicensed metals trading platforms.
https://www.scmp.com/print/economy/china-economy/article/3341633/chinas-gold-fever-sparks-us1-billion-scandal-trading-platform-collapses
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ME: Dan Fogelberg’s Power of Gold lyrics
…Balance the cost of the soul you lost
With the dreams you lightly sold
Then tell me that you’re free
Of the power of gold
The power of gold
But there’s something about the song that disturbs you…
——————-
ME: silver hit $122 then dropped like a rock to under 108
gold hit 5596, then dropped like a rock to under 5165
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Red-hot silver is ‘almost guaranteed’ to plunge 50% in the next year, JPMorgan’s former quant chief says
Silver is at records, but former JPM strategist Marko Kolanovic predicts a significant drop is coming.
The metal’s rise looks unsustainable, he says, predicting a crash coming within a year.
Kolanovic warns that bubbles in commodities don’t last.
…Peter Brandt, a prominent futures and commodities trader, has raised similar concerns regarding silver recently. In a post on X, he issued a stark warning for investors about previous rallies that didn’t end well.
“Today nearly 2 years of world production traded on world exchanges,” he noted. “More than 1.5 billion ounces. The last time such a proportion traded was Apr 25, the day of the 2011 top.”
https://www.aol.com/articles/red-hot-silver-almost-guaranteed-153806860.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJFHkrVl2p4tajYk2eK8hKgZMeK4ZHROJlK0HjkjUEjLIvQdtxwZwUESlleAPRtVbKuNDEEtnaZhk
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We are going to find out if PMs are in for a long-term structural change or a needle prick at an ephemeral bubble. Time will tell…
Thanks, Bob. You can see footage of those Shenzhen protests here:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/HbICfItSfZA
It’s not just gold and silver going crazy:
“Copper prices hit a record high of more than $14,000 a metric ton on Thursday, as speculators extended their buying spree, encouraged by expectations of strong demand and supported by a weak dollar and geopolitical concerns.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/copper-sets-record-amid-geopolitical-risks-weak-dollar-2026-01-29/
By heck, that’s a heck of a long link, does it include heaps of cookies?
Here’s mine: https://www.aol.com/articles/red-hot-silver-almost-guaranteed-153806860.html
Yes! For anyone who doesn’t know this, you can get rid of everything from The question mark and After, which is what your link is, Mad Hatter. Thanks!
Another silver expert saying, “Physical is King.” If you can’t hold it, you don’t own it.
20-minute Kitco video from Jan. 25, 2026, but has still timely information.
————————
Peak silver until 2030: Why mine supply won’t top 2016 levels for 5 years
Silver has crossed $100, and longtime mining executive Phil Baker says the move reflects a structural shift in the market. Speaking with Kitco News at VRIC 2026 in Vancouver, Baker, former CEO of Hecla Mining and former chairman of the Silver Institute, said the rally is being driven by tightening physical supply rather than speculation.
“Physical is king,” Baker said, as exchanges, manufacturers, governments, and investors prioritize access to real metal over paper exposure. Baker said global silver production peaked in 2016 and is unlikely to exceed that level before at least 2030, limiting the industry’s ability to respond to higher prices.
He noted that recycling and substitution provide only marginal relief due to refining bottlenecks and long mine development timelines. Baker also pointed to rising strategic demand, highlighting silver’s designation as a critical mineral in the United States and confirming that he has joined the board of Dateline Resources.
https://www.kitco.com/news/video/2026-01-26/peak-silver-until-2030-why-mine-supply-won-t-top-2016-levels-for-5-years
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ME: I was hoping he would be Collapse Aware and mention the never-ending mining resource depletion and the expert predictions of shrinking supplies of diesel, which of course would put an end to much of mining everywhere.