“In polar regions, microbes are influencing climate change as frozen ecosystems thaw.
“Microbes across Earth’s coldest regions are becoming more active as glaciers, permafrost and sea ice thaw, accelerating carbon release and potentially amplifying climate change, according to a new international review from McGill University.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-01-polar-regions-microbes-climate-frozen.html
“Monday ice update – “Arctic sea ice extent is currently the *lowest* on record (JAXA data)…
“• about 540,000 km² below the 2010s mean
• about 1,100,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 1,650,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 2,120,000 km² below the 1980s mean” [Zack Labe]
https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-figures/
“Arctic seas are getting louder as ice melts, posing risks: Study shows how to better measure noise.
“The Arctic is experiencing a steady rise in human-generated underwater noise as melting ice and increasing activity open the region to greater vessel traffic, with major implications for wildlife and local communities.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-01-arctic-seas-louder-ice-posing.html
“Insane mildness continues in GREENLAND – much warmer than most of USA.
“Another day up to +9C/48F with several stations, including the capital Nuuk, unable to freeze at night as well.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2015763834926194805
“Why Britain’s crumbling canals are a ticking timebomb…
“…the number of incidents where the embankment of a canal just collapses seems to be increasing… Climate change is also cited as a cause – drought creates cracks in the soil surrounding and underneath canal beds.”
“A red flood warning – meaning danger to life – has been issued for a river in south-west England as Storm Chandra brought heavy rain and strong winds to many areas of the UK…
“Sections of roads in Dorset, Somerset and east Devon were closed due to flooding.”
“249 yr of homogenized temperature at Innsbruck (Tirol).
“Climate of the 21st c. is impressively consistent in its rate of warming (esp. last 40 yr) and has nothing to do with 20th c. climate! Spoiler: Solar activity has nothing to do with it!” [Melaine Le Roy]
https://x.com/subfossilguy/status/2015045388147814724
“Pine trees record a surge in Mediterranean climate extremes.
“Pine forests in eastern Spain hold a quiet record of weather history… The results show rising instability in rainfall patterns during modern warming, with sharp increases in heavy rain and deep drought.”
https://www.earth.com/news/pine-trees-record-a-surge-in-mediterranean-climate-extremes/
“Batten down the hatches: Red weather alert issued in Spain as Atlantic storms roll in with heavy rainfall and strong winds…
“According to Aemet, the state meteorological agency, the poor weather is set to continue this week as fresh Atlantic storms roll in, bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds to much of the peninsula.”
“Balearic sea temperature spiked at 28ºC last summer, nearly 5ºC above average.
“The Mediterranean Sea in the Balearics reached an average surface temperature of 28.4ºC during the month of July 2025, which is almost 5ºC above the 1982-2015 average. These are some of the data collected in the 2025 annual report…”
“Italy declares state of emergency in southern regions following storm that caused major landslide in Niscemi..
“Italy declared a state of emergency Monday over the devastation caused last week in Calabria, Sicily and Sardinia by Cyclone Harry, which also triggered a major landslide in the Sicilian town of Niscemi that has displaced at least 1,500 residents and disrupted daily life, said officials.”
“Hundreds feared dead in attempt to cross Mediterranean during cyclone.
“Up to 380 people may have drowned attempting to cross the Mediterranean last week as Cyclone Harry battered southern Italy and Malta, the Italian coastguard has said, as a shipwreck with the loss of 50 lives was confirmed by Maltese authorities.”
“Collapse at Lake Chad: How Climate Stress Transforms Resources Into Flashpoints.
“Water scarcity in the Sahel, a transitional region separating the Sahara Desert and the savannas of Sub-Saharan Africa, represents an existential crisis in an area historically plagued by weak governance and economic struggles.”
https://www.iar-gwu.org/blog/oipd1fl7zuww9yf5yl9a08y0x6wb3o-kgcjl-ph26f
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN CENTRAL AFRICA. Records pulverized everywhere:
“37.5 [99.5F] Impfondo CONGO HOTTEST JANUARY DAY EVER. Records all over the country: Ouesso, M’Pouya etc… 38.6 Bangui CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC January hottest day ever.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2015494929913696385
“RECORD HEAT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA. After a 46C [114.8F] day, a record hot night from South Africa all the way to Tanzania:
“RECORD HOTTEST JANUARY NIGHTS Minimums: SOUTH AFRICA: 23.8 Uitenhage, 23.6 max. 33.7 Coffee Bay both records, 23.2 Grahamstown. 22.7 Somerset. TANZANIA Min 22.0 Dodoma.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2015792421871980987
“Climate change is hurting Kenyan women working in coastal tourism – they explain how…
“When climate change affects women’s sense of identity and culture, it affects their livelihoods and well-being too. These impacts ripple through the tourism industry, affecting the experiences and services that millions of visitors rely on in Africa’s tourism.”
“Iran’s biggest centres of protest are also experiencing extreme pollution and water shortages…
“Iran is experiencing not one environmental crisis but the convergence of several: water shortages, land subsidence, air pollution and energy failure. All added together, life is a struggle for survival.”
“Ghazni residents warn of worsening water crisis as groundwater levels plunge.
“Residents of Ghazni province in central Afghanistan say groundwater levels have dropped sharply over the past year, leaving many communities struggling to secure enough water for daily use and raising fears of a deepening water crisis.”
“China places blankets on ice: the experimental strategy that could slow glacier melting.
“In some mountains of China, the glaciers present an unusual appearance, covered by extensive white surfaces that contrast with the dark rock. However, global warming has led the country to take measures to curb the melting and preserve these gigantic blocks of ice.”
“Since January, temperatures in most parts of China have been significantly warmer than usual.
“It is expected that China will experience an even stronger warming trend in early February, with temperature potentially breaking the record for warmest February temperatures ever!” [Jim Yang]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/2015815709398598104
“Cold waves bring record snowfalls across Japan…
“In the 24 hours through Sunday night, Sapporo received 54 centimeters of snow — setting a record for January. As of 4 p.m. on Sunday, 112 centimeters of snow had fallen, marking the first time since 2022 that accumulation exceeded one meter. On Monday morning, the city was hit again by heavy snow.”
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20260125_14/
“Coast-to-coast coral assessment reveals Thailand’s reefs losing complexity…
“The surveys indicate that, as in other parts of the world, Thailand’s reefs are losing structural complexity, becoming dominated by simpler boulder-forming corals, while staghorn and branching species die out.”
“Twenty-three soldiers died in Indonesia’s West Java landslides, official says.
“The 23 Marines were caught in the landslide during training exercises for Indonesia-Papua New Guinea border patrols on Saturday, First Admiral Tunggul, the Navy spokesperson said. “The incident occurred due to extreme weather conditions with heavy rainfall, which caused a landslide at the training site,” said Tunggul…”
“Flash flooding on Copperfield River forces emergency evacuation of Einasleigh.
“Residents near the Copperfield River in Far North Queensland‘s Gulf Country are being urged to evacuate now after the Etheridge Shire Council issued an emergency alert… Residents around the Copperfield River and Einasleigh township must leave immediately.”
“Emergency feed arrives for remote Western Australia pastoralists amid worst drought in decades,.
“Pastoralists across WA’s Midwest, Gascoyne and Murchison regions have struggled through several years of low rainfall… There are growing calls for the state government to subsidise the transport costs of donated hay or fund additional drought relief.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-27/feed-relief-for-wa-pastoralists-in-drought/106263028
“Victoria has recorded a new statewide maximum temperature, with 48.9C [120F] recorded in the north-west towns of Walpeup and Hopetoun.
“The previous record of 48.8C was recorded at Hopetoun Airport, two hours south of Mildura, during the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-27/heatwave-record-temperatures-victoria/106273034
“More than 1,000 families told to evacuate as bushfires rage and temperatures near 50C in Australia.
“Emergency services said a fast-moving fire in the Otways, a heavily forested region nearly 200km southwest of Melbourne, had breached containment lines and could spread further amid record heat and gusty winds.”
“Hailstorms ‘wiped out entire crops’ in Canterbury [NZ].
“Canterbury arable farmers are facing millions of dollars of losses after a third big hailstorm hit parts of the region on Friday. Crops have been destroyed, while others have gone to seed due to ongoing wet weather making them unusable.”
https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/rural-life-other/hailstorms-wiped-out-entire-crops-canterbury-rnz
“Vanuatu communities move to protect taro, an ancestral climate-resilient crop…
“A key reason that communities are now fighting to reinvigorate taro cultivation is because it’s more resilient to climate shocks: In recent years, severe storms have led to the tiny nation’s islands being cut off from food shipments…”
“OCEANIA RECORD HEAT.
“It’s the most extreme heat wave Oceania has ever seen outside Australia with hundreds of records smashed no-stop in the whole Continent. And these days aren’t the exception… Min 27.3 [81.1F] Fuamotu TONGA Hottest night in history.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2015057159604846754
“Wildfires in Patagonia reignite, destroying over 35,000 hectares…
“Three fires reignited on Sunday due to high temperatures and gusty winds. On Monday, fires surrounded the town of Cholila, in western Chubut. More than 35,000 hectares have already been destroyed in the province.”
https://buenosairesherald.com/society/wildfires-in-patagonia-reignite-destroying-over-35000-hectares
“Lightning strike at Brasilia rally injures 89 Bolsonaro supporters…
“Video footage captured the moment a sudden flash and thunder sent crowds scrambling for cover beneath umbrellas and plastic ponchos in Brasilia. Fire department officials said 47 people required hospital treatment, with 11 needing intensive medical care.”
“Old diseases return as settlement pushes into the Amazon rainforest.
“Human activity continues to expand ever further into wild areas, throwing ecology out of balance. But what begins as an environmental issue often evolves into a human problem.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-01-diseases-settlement-amazon-rainforest.html
“While USA and Canada are freezing, record heat is everywhere else in CENTRAL AMERICA.
“38C/100F in Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica at the same time. Never happened in January. 33C in Mexico at 1500m asl. Insane.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2015710617500631276
“HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN FLORIDA:
“While no monthly cold records is broken in North America, hundreds of heat records keep falling all over Greenland, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean and also Florida. MONTHLY RECORDS: 90 [32.2C] Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, 89 Homestead, 88 Miami.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2015952845896614345
“Rain, not snow: Extraordinary warmth leaves mountains less snowy across the West.
“California is still drought-free, but the Colorado River remains in a severe drought. This year’s meager snowpack in the Rocky Mountains could complicate the Southwest’s chronic water shortages.”
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2026-01-24/western-snowpack-warmth
“Water conservation may not protect cities from severe droughts.
“Water shortages already affect many cities in the western United States. Rising temperatures increase evaporation, reduce snowpack, and lower river flow. Growing populations place additional pressure on limited water supplies.”
https://www.earth.com/news/water-conservation-may-not-protect-cities-from-severe-droughts/
“Dire Colorado River outcomes may be unavoidable, US report shows.
“No matter which alternative the federal government picks to manage the depleted Colorado River, there’s a very good chance of severely bad consequences — such as “dead pool” at reservoirs and a cutoff of electricity from big dams.”
“At least 30 dead as severe winter storm coats US in snow and ice.
“Many in the United States faced another frigid night of freezing temperatures, power outages, and transportation issues as a colossal winter storm was blamed for the deaths of some 30 people across several states in the country.”
“Deep cold could last days, worsening storm’s impacts: ‘I’m just really, really tired’…
“The impact of the cold will be amplified by how long it will last. In many areas — including the nation’s capital — temperatures may not rise above freezing until early February, part of a streak that started in D.C. on Friday evening.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/01/26/frigid-cold-outages-storm-impacts/
“Toronto is beginning to dig itself out from the largest snowfall in the city’s history, a process which officials say is likely to take “several days”…
“More than 88.2cm of snow have fallen at Pearson international airport this month, marking the snowiest January and snowiest month since records began in 1937.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/26/toronto-snowstorm-record-snowfall-total
“Very interesting to see that the ongoing cold across parts of North America and Eurasia are reflected in a temporary dip in global average temperature.
“Of course, this has no significance in terms of the long-term climate change (warming) trend.” [Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3md6ycaru2s2b
“The global mean annual [Sea Surface Temperature] values [during the Eemian] were ∼0.5°C warmer than they were 150 years ago and indistinguishable from the 1995–2014 mean”
“We are now well above that. Even more so regionally.” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/2015089083798720586
“Did Humans Nearly Go Extinct 900,000 Years Ago? A Biologist Explains…
“…it likely isn’t a coincidence that the timing matches up with a period of profound environmental upheaval: the Early–Middle Pleistocene Transition… For early human ancestors (most likely members of the genus Homo predating Homo heidelbergensis), these changes would have been devastating.”
“Solar geoengineering could be even more costly than unabated global warming if it is cut off suddenly, leading to a “termination shock” of rapidly rebounding temperatures…
“…solar geoengineering would need to continue uninterrupted for centuries, or the warming that was “masked” would come roaring back at a faster rate.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
“ The cosmos is within us. We are made of star-stuff. We are a way for the universe to know itself. ”
– Carl Sagan
Another good one. And even when our bodies have been burned or rotted away our atoms will still be star stuff. Comforting thoughts as we fly over the cliff edge.
Thank you, Flippr. I do like it when the comments section takes a metaphysical turn.
Reminds me of Alan Watts’ quote, “You are an aperture through which the universe is looking at and exploring itself.”
If Clever Apes are star stuff, that’s an insult to the cosmos.
The cosmos will probably celebrate NHTE.
“Did humans nearly go extinct 900,000 years ago?”
ME: When considering what is happening now: many would argue that our early extinction would have done this planet a huge ecological favor.
Last sentence from the article: “Whether they dwindled to a few thousand individuals or merely endured prolonged hardship, it’s still a reminder for us to approach human evolution with humility, as it probably wasn’t as smooth an ascent as we’d think.”
ME: What will be crystal clear in the far future geological & fossil record will be how jagged & rapid the Seneca Descent will have affected our present numbers of 8 billion plus…
…A thin sedimentary layer highly infused with radioactive nanoplastics & other forever chemicals with distorted DNA in all fossilized lifeforms.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I’ve heard that description before about a thin sedimentary layer. However you have really enhanced that perfectly, Bob.
Bob, it seems that as long as we do not tip the climate into a Venusian state, nature/geologic forces will expunge most traces of humanity and our crazy endeavours surprisingly quickly.
As you say, though, the radioactivity and nano-plastics will linger on… I found a rather interesting article on this topic that also discusses collapse itself:
“The end of human civilization would not be a gradual decline. It would be an instantaneous, catastrophic, and cascading technological failure…
“The end of the first week would be marked by the staggered silence of diesel generators. One by one, their fuel tanks would run dry. At that moment, the cooling pumps at the world’s nuclear plants would stop, and the true, unmanaged catastrophe would begin…
“While this radiological disaster was unfolding, a biological apocalypse would be taking place. In the first year, the planet would witness the single largest mass-death event of vertebrate life in its history.”
https://newspaceeconomy.ca/2025/11/16/how-long-would-earth-require-to-erase-the-traces-of-human-civilization/
This is a GREAT article – at least for Deep Time loving doomers! Woot!
Much data and spreadsheets, little analysis
Why late-imperial systems keep counting until the very end
In the final days of the Roman Empire, there was no shortage of numbers. On the contrary. Taxes were meticulously recorded, grain quotas precisely calculated, soldiers’ pay tables maintained down to the last denarius. The empire did not drown in chaos, but in administration. What was missing was not information, but insight.
This paradox — perfect bookkeeping in a failing system — appears strikingly often in late-imperial phases. The more the underlying carrying capacity erodes, the stronger the urge becomes to measure, control, and enforce. The spreadsheet and the overkill of data emerge precisely at the moment when analysis becomes too painful.
We see the same pattern today. Energy, raw materials, logistics, climate: never before have we had so much data, so many models and dashboards. At the same time, the overview is missing. Not because the numbers are wrong, but because they explain less and less. They record movement, not direction. Volatility, not cause.
As in Rome, the emphasis shifts from understanding to managing. Problems are no longer interpreted, but fragmented. Each sector gets its own table, each crisis its own KPI. The whole disappears from view. Analysis — asking whether the system itself still functions — is replaced by optimisation within ever-narrower margins.
This is not an intellectual failure, but an energetic symptom. Overview requires calm, time, and surplus. In end phases, these are no longer available. Counting then becomes a form of incantation: as long as the numbers keep running, the system appears to exist.
The Romans could calculate exactly how much grain the legions needed right up to the end — but no longer where that grain would come from. We can predict energy prices to the minute — but can no longer guarantee system stability in the face of cold, heat, or geopolitical shocks.
Many spreadsheets, then. And precisely for that reason, so little analysis.
Not because no one sees it,
but because real analysis always ends with the same uncomfortable question:
can this still go on?
And that is the one question late-imperial systems no longer dare to ask.
Zip, another brilliant essay!
Not because no one sees it,
but because real analysis always ends with the same uncomfortable question:
can this still go on?
And that is the one question late-imperial systems no longer dare to ask.
———————
ME: So I asked Microsoft Copilot AI: Nate Hagens & Luke Groman have done extensive consultations with Wall Street firms on Overshoot & Collapse. What percentage of traders are now Collapse Aware?
ANSWER: There’s a fascinating shift happening in finance, but it’s nowhere near large enough to quantify in the way your question implies.
No published data → no measurable percentage
Even with Nate Hagens and Luke Groman briefing hedge funds, family offices, and institutional clients, there is still no survey, study, or industry dataset that measures “Collapse Awareness” among traders. Finance simply doesn’t track this kind of worldview metric.
So, any number anyone gives is an inference, not a statistic.
What we can say with confidence
Hagens and Groman have indeed briefed: macro hedge funds, commodity desks, energy‑focused investors, large family offices, and some pension and endowment CIOs. But these are tiny slices of the overall trading population.
Wall Street has roughly: tens of thousands of traders, hundreds of thousands of analysts, quants, and portfolio managers, and millions of people globally in finance-adjacent roles. Only a fraction ever encounters ecological overshoot frameworks.
A realistic, evidence‑based estimate based on the niche nature of Overshoot & Collapse, the small number of firms that engage with long‑term biophysical risk, the dominance of short‑term incentives in trading, and the fact that even ESG desks rarely discuss systemic collapse: a reasonable, defensible estimate is:
Collapse Awareness among traders is likely in the 1–3% range.
If you broaden the definition to include: macro traders who sense “something is structurally breaking”, commodity traders who understand resource depletion, bond desks aware of fiscal unsustainability
…you might stretch it to 5–10%, but that’s being generous and includes people who feel the symptoms without knowing the Overshoot framework.
Why the number stays low despite high‑profile briefings
1. Traders are incentivized to think in days, not decades
Overshoot & Collapse is a systems concept; trading is a signal business.
2. Collapse framing is outside the Overton window of finance
Even when traders agree with the diagnosis privately, they rarely integrate it into models.
3. Awareness ≠ adoption
Many traders hear the argument, nod, and then go back to positioning around CPI prints and Fed meetings.
4. Hagens and Groman mostly reach macro‑oriented elites
That’s a few hundred people, not the industry.
The more interesting question
The real shift isn’t “percentage of traders who are collapse aware.”
It’s which desks are becoming aware first: energy and commodities, macro discretionary, global rates, long‑volatility and tail‑risk funds, and family offices with multi‑generational horizons
These groups are disproportionately represented among the “aware.”
——————————-
ME: Experts generally say that when knowledge penetration reaches 3 to 10 percent it can very quickly permeate through the entire group.
Maybe Wall Street is close to asking, then acting upon, …”can this still go on?
Luke Groman quote: “We are still on the dance floor but keeping a close eye on the fire exits!”
If the rising price of PMs are the financial representation of growing flames & smoke: how close are we to the Last Dance?
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Zip, thank you. What you describe is Joseph Tainter’s diminishing marginal returns on rising social complexity in action – too much overhead for too little benefit.
Bob, that is fascinating. I recall Tim Morgan at Surplus Economics saying that he’d given the odd talk to financial high flyers. He himself came from Tullett Prebon. I suspect that impending collapse remains just an abstraction and money-making opportunity even for most of those who “get it”.
As an aside, I was amused to hear the Guardian describe gold as the Armageddon asset today. Meanwhile:
“The Doomsday Clock moved to 85 seconds to midnight, the closest ever, due to rising threats from nuclear weapons, climate change and disinformation.”
https://www.euronews.com/2026/01/27/doomsday-clock-set-at-85-seconds-to-midnight-bulletin-of-the-atomic-scientists-says
““Old diseases return as settlement pushes into the Amazon rainforest.
“Human activity continues to expand ever further into wild areas, throwing ecology out of balance. But what begins as an environmental issue often evolves into a human problem.”
So apparently I have been wrong my whole life because I thought that environmental issues WERE human problems. I guess we’re not part of the environment.
/sarc
Thus does word choice reflect ignorance and fatal hubris.
I fear it does a bit, Cassandra. A Nipah scare in E Asia, I see:
https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/nipah-virus-outbreak-india-covid-screening-travel-warnings-b2907456.html
We’re punishing Earth, the Mother who gave us Life and the only Life-giving Mother we’ll ever have, more brutally every day.
Leaf, agreed. In the end, nature’s self-regulating intelligence will restore the balance.
I’m just really, really tired.
Ugh why is the last article from news scientist pay walled.
Use archive.vn!
Here, I did it for you ❤️
https://archive.vn/1COFe
PS re tired. Yes. 😞
Hang in there, Truth Wizard and Cassandra.
The image of Earth in the @extremetemps post (Greenland) is remarkable for showing how massive the cold blob (i.e. the Arctic, displaced) over NA and the North Atlantic is right now. Nuuk above zero and 3000 km SW, near Toronto, the forecast is:
“Flurries. Risk of snow squalls this afternoon. Local blowing snow. Local amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind southwest 30 km/h gusting to 50. High minus 10. Wind chill minus 29 this morning and minus 20 this afternoon. Risk of frostbite. UV index 1 or low.
Tonight Flurries. Local blowing snow this evening. Local amount 2 cm. Wind west 30 km/h gusting to 50 becoming light after midnight. Low minus 17. Wind chill minus 20 this evening and minus 25 overnight.
Wed, 28 Jan Mainly cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Local blowing snow late in the morning and in the afternoon. Wind becoming southwest 20 km/h gusting to 40 in the morning. High minus 11. Wind chill minus 25 in the morning and minus 19 in the afternoon. UV index 1 or low.
Night Flurries. Low minus 16 etc…”
At least we’ll have a few days with little snow accumulation, which eases the cleanup.
Shane, it’s quite something – this relative warmth in the Arctic and record low sea ice coupled with huge winter storms across swathes of the US, Europe and Asia. Bad medicine.
Good luck with the clean-up. Over here in the Hebrides, Storm Chandra saw the school buses cancelled and has just destroyed my wooden bin enclosure.
So sorry to hear that, Pan ; I assumed you lived in a house.
😂
If only, Rob. I am basically a Hebridean Oscar the Grouch.
I don’t know how many other US commenters were in the path of this weekend’s winter storm but it was just nuts. It didn’t stop snowing for over 24 hours. We shoveled four times Sunday and still needed to shovel twice yesterday. I’d guess over a foot dropped here, and it got worse as you went north.
Now we have a week of temperatures that are well below freezing, with potential wind chills of -25 F. No school yesterday or today. The system was easily hundreds of miles wide. Really freaky to think about this happening as a thunderstorm.
We’re safe but I know there’s a lot of people trapped because the roads and their own cars are buried.
As Shane says above, “the Arctic displaced.”
Got lucky here in western NC mountains with a small amount of sleet and no lost power.
John, it sounds miserable. I imagine the novelty has well and truly worn off.
Note to Melanie de Roy: 40 – 2026 = 1986, planting it quite firmly in the 20’th century, so, “ Climate of the 21st c. is impressively consistent in its rate of warming (esp. last 40 yr) and has nothing to do with 20th c. climate!”, contradicts itself on a very basic level.
Rob, good catch. It is perhaps not Melaine’s finest tweet. I just thought the very long period of records was interesting.
I have been thinking about my post yesterday of the weblink of how China appears to have strategically cornered the Periodic Table of Elements:
https://no01.substack.com/p/china-usa
————————-
Because what’s coming isn’t another tariff dispute that gets negotiated away. It’s strategic strangulation through materials nobody can pronounce or understand…
…This is what a victory looks like in 21st-century financial world war. No carriers that are sunk. No cities bombed. Just quiet, patient exploitation of dependencies that nobody noticed until the moment they mattered most….
————————–
ME: So, I asked Copilot the obvious question: Is the Chinese leadership aware of Overshoot & Collapse?
ANSWER: There’s no public evidence that China’s leadership uses the specific Western futures‑studies term “Overshoot & Collapse.” At the same time, it’s very clear from official documents, speeches, and policy behavior that Chinese planners are deeply engaged with resource limits, ecological constraints, demographic decline, and systemic risk—just not in that vocabulary.
To stay within safe boundaries, I’ll focus on what is publicly documented rather than speculating about the views of specific political figures.
What is documented: China’s leadership studies long‑term systemic constraints
Chinese planning institutions—especially the Central Committee, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Academy of Social Sciences—regularly analyze:
1. Resource depletion and energy constraints
China publishes detailed assessments of declining domestic coal quality, oil import dependence, water scarcity, soil degradation, and mineral supply security.
These are classic “overshoot” pressures, even if not labeled that way.
2. Ecological carrying capacity
China’s “ecological civilization” framework explicitly discusses planetary boundaries, environmental limits to growth, biodiversity loss, and pollution‑driven health burdens.
This is conceptually adjacent to overshoot theory.
3. Demographic contraction
China is one of the first major economies to confront: shrinking population, aging workforce, and declining fertility.
These trends are often treated as structural, not cyclical.
4. Systemic risk and long‑term planning
Five‑Year Plans and 2035/2050 strategic documents include climate adaptation, food security, energy transition, supply‑chain resilience, and technological self‑sufficiency.
These are all responses to long‑term constraints.
—————————————
ME: Reads like China is far-away ahead of the rest of the world because our nanoplastic infused short attention spans are now only mere minutes long. Just compare American math & science proficiency to China.
Is Trump even linguistically and/or mentally capable of becoming the Mandarin Orange for more effective negotiations?
Next, I asked Copilot: Who is ahead in Collapse planning: USA or China?
———————–
ANSWER: China is generally far ahead of the United States in long‑term resilience and “collapse‑aware” planning, but the two countries excel in different dimensions. China plans decades ahead around resource limits and systemic risk, while the U.S. is stronger in innovation, food/energy abundance, and decentralized adaptability. No country is “fully prepared,” but their strategies diverge sharply.
High‑Level Verdict
If the question is “Who explicitly plans for long‑term structural stress?” → China.
If the question is “Who has deeper inherent resilience due to geography, resources, and demographics?” → The United States.
They are preparing for different kinds of futures.
————————————-
ME: I think Professor Rees would disagree as he sees Collapse as inevitable for all.
So, next I asked Copilot: Read this link, https://no01.substack.com/p/china-usa then tell me who will collapse first, USA or China please.
——————————-
ANSWER: Short answer: that piece makes a brutal case that the U.S. system is more brittle in the near term, but it does not justify a clean “China collapses first” or “U.S. collapses first” call—and anyone who tells you they know the sequence is guessing with a narrative, not data.
Here’s how it lands if you read it carefully and strip out the drama:
What the article actually shows
China has weaponized materials; the U.S. has hollowed out resilience.
The author walks through antimony, magnesium, rare earths, bismuth, gallium, graphite, cobalt, silver, etc., and shows how:
China dominates mining and/or processing.
The U.S. ran down stockpiles and offshored capacity.
Rebuilding takes 5–15+ years, while China can pull a lever in weeks.
The U.S. is exposed to “sudden stop” risks.
The scary part isn’t just dependence—it’s non‑substitutability plus no stockpiles (magnesium, antimony, heavy rare earths). That’s how you get:
ammo lines stopping
aircraft and EV production halting
data centers delayed
…with the public having no idea why.
China, by contrast, has been stockpiling and planning.
The piece highlights:
large strategic reserves of metals
control of processing chokepoints
the ability to hurt adversaries without visible “war”
So if you define “collapse” as industrial and military capability seizing up because critical inputs vanish, the article is basically screaming:
The U.S. can be kneecapped faster than it realizes.
But “collapse first” is the wrong frame
Collapse isn’t a race; it’s a systemic unravelling with different failure modes:
China’s vulnerabilities (barely touched in the article):
aging and shrinking population
massive internal debt and real‑estate overhang
environmental damage, water stress, and regional inequality
political rigidity that can mis-handle shocks
U.S. vulnerabilities (the article focuses here):
critical‑minerals dependence
hollowed‑out industrial base
political short‑termism and complacency
financialized economy assuming “global markets always provide”
They’re not playing the same game:
China is resource‑secure but socially and demographically tight.
The U.S. is resource‑rich but strategically and institutionally sloppy.
Direct answer to your question
Given all that, the most honest thing I can say is:
The article strongly implies the U.S. is more likely to experience acute, sudden industrial/strategic crises first if China fully leans on these chokepoints.
That is not the same as saying “the U.S. collapses before China” in a civilizational sense—because China’s own internal stresses could trigger a different kind of breakdown on a different timeline.
So: no one can credibly tell you who “collapses first.”
What you can say, after reading that piece, is that:
In a world of Overshoot & Collapse, the U.S. has made itself dangerously dependent on a rival that has spent 20+ years quietly preparing to weaponize that dependence.
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ME: I would like to see the major news media outlets thoroughly discuss this material above.
Probability = ZERO
Now this makes sense to me. Does it make sense to you? There are now so many factors that are driving people worldwide to PMs. Here is the latest from China.
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Silver Smashes All-Time Highs Near $111 As China’s ‘Zombie Banks’ Spark Metal Rush—Is It Generational Trade Or A Bubble?
The ‘Zombie Bank’ Exodus
…According to Rose AI founder Alexander Campbell, the primary engine of this latest leg up is capital flight from China. Campbell describes a “zombie banking system” laden with trillions in hidden losses, forcing Chinese households to choose between technically insolvent bank deposits or physical assets.
“The secret is out that property is not a safe store of wealth,” Campbell wrote in his Jan. 26 update. “You only need a tiny shift in savings behavior to break the silver market”.
…This panic buying has created a massive arbitrage gap, says Campbell, as silver in Shanghai is trading at a structural premium compared to the trading on COMEX.
…Campbell characterizes the rally not as a party, but as a “doomsday clock” for the global order, noting that realized volatility has reached levels not seen since the American Revolution.
…With solar and AI demand creating an inelastic deficit and COMEX inventories on pace to be exhausted by September, the squeeze shows few signs of abating.
“The dynamics that got us here haven’t changed,” Campbell noted. “They’ve accelerated”.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/silver-smashes-time-highs-near-183112186.html
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ME: Makes sense to me that the Chinese would rather have something real tangible versus Chinese fiat cash, Chinese bonds, or property rapidly losing value.
Wonder how long before the contagion spreads globally? It could potentially spread faster than COVID!
Back from taking a C &E break by cutting and stacking firewood. Yep, still chilly here in the Texas Hill Country but a real wood fire in the woodstove makes for a delightful ambiance!
Found possibly more evidence why PMs sales are still going strong:
https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities—week-to-20-january-2026-26012026
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…With silver surging to USD 110, up 52% this month, the question of who is buying remains front and centre. The answer does not lie in futures or ETFs, both of which continue to register net selling.
Who is buying silver?
With silver surging to USD 110, up 52% this month, the question of who is actually buying continues to surface. Available data from COMEX futures positioning and ETF holdings suggest that net selling — not buying — has been the dominant theme over the past month.
From a December peak of 871 million ounces, total ETF holdings have been reduced by 26.4 million ounces. At the same time, speculators in COMEX futures — including managed money and other reportables — have cut their net long by 56.6 million ounces (11,320 contracts), leaving positioning at an almost two-year low of 123 million ounces.
Some of the price strength may be explained by industrial demand from producers concerned about potential supply shortfalls. However, prices are now approaching levels where industrial demand — which in a normal year accounts for around 60% of total silver consumption — could eventually begin to suffer.
This leaves retail investment demand for coins and bars, and not least very strong and persistent buying from China. Despite today’s surge to USD 110 per ounce in London, the Shanghai premium has continued to widen, rising to more than USD 14. As long as this premium remains elevated, traders and investors elsewhere are likely to feel emboldened in their belief that London and New York prices remain too low.
With China acting as such a major and persistent source of support, attention now turns to the Lunar New Year holiday, during which the Shanghai Futures Exchange will be closed from 16 to 23 February. Should profit-taking eventually take hold, some of that pressure may start to emerge ahead of the Chinese market shutdown.
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Recall my earlier post [and also a post from Pan] where industrial demand has to pay the higher prices because they are still a long way from substituting copper AT SCALE for silver.
Perhaps we are seeing a tug-of-war between retail Chinese buyers and Chinese industry for physical delivery to make a $14 USD premium in Shanghai?
Those hail storms impacting grain crops in Canterbury NZ are a relatively small percentage of overall. What is more concerning is increasing incidence of very low yields. Hard to put a finger on why but the contacts in the arable community I have get the feeling that NW flows over New Zealand have altered with high wind damage at critical times being the main culprit along with excess rain when not wanted and seemingly cooler summers.
I suspect that the Antarctic current that is thought to have altered (possibly reversed) about 10 years ago has resulted in a change in melting and heat distribution around the south pole and the result is high pressure systems that reach deeper into the southern ocean and greater temperature gradients and atmospheric energy disparities.
Historically, these high pressure systems crossed over NZ further north and used to force tropical lows to sidle safely by the North Island of New Zealand but it seems these low pressure systems (carry enormous quantities of tropical moisture) are now able to dip down to higher latitudes more easily – result being massive rain dumps on the North Island with resultant floods, saturated soils, erosion and landslides (the most recent event killing 6 under a landside at a camping ground).
This same possibility of southward shifting high and low pressure systems could have also changed rain and snowfall patterns over the South Island – we used to get Cold fronts regularly sweeping up and over the South Island mountains from deep in the Southern Ocean – these now seem to predominantly skirt over the very South of the South Island and out to sea and don’t bring particularly cold weather. Any author that suggests NZ could be a safe haven are sadly mistaken.
Thank you for that terrific local intel, Craig. 😎
I’ve taken the liberty of inserting a few para-breaks in your comment to make it more digestible.
Thank you for sharing that, Craig. It reenforces my reaction to Putin’s claim that climate change will help Russia’s agricultural sector, which to me highlights both a complete misunderstanding of climate change and a desperate need to refer to it by the more fitting term climate derangement.
In addition to soil, sun & water, modern industrialized agriculture requires a stable environment which changing the chemistry of the atmosphere on an ongoing basis renders impossible.
From what you say, NZ is a harbinger of things to come whirled wide.
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-01-27/gold-now-second-largest-currency-ray-dalio-how-capital-wars-drive-buyers
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“….Why did the gold market go up? Why is it going up? You’re seeing central banks and sovereign wealth funds and so on beginning to build that kind of money,” he said. “Why? Because that is the safer kind of money.”
In the current environment, Dalio said the most surprising thing is that people are still surprised.
“It’s shocking to me that everybody wakes up every day, reads the news, and is shocked because of something that never happened in their lifetime,” he said. “Connect the dots. How is the money? Why did gold go up 67%? We’ve been through this before. Who are the buyers? What is happening domestically? Pay attention to what is happening! Is this not the real story?…”
“…In any case, what I’m trying to get across is that you should think of gold as being a fundamental money that you should own at least some of. Most investors don’t own any.”
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I get excited with every Climate report. I’m constantly wondering just how much habitat destruction it will take for this species to say, in mass; “We fucked this up.” There will be plenty who will say; “It’s not my fault.”
I don’t watch much TV but I’ve been watching “Kidnapped”. One of the kidnappers holding the victim is supposed to kill the hostage & his partner questions the killing. The bad guy says there are billions of people, one dying makes no difference. Sounds like the motto of this species, if not the species it surely applies to Americans.
Hey world are you really considering coming to violent, bigoted, hating, evil, 400 million gun America as a tourist or for business? Spending money benefiting an enemy is stupid. What’s the saying; You can’t fix stupid.
Can one call those that do nothing co -conspirators.