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“BREAKING: The German Meteorological Society and Physical Society warn today that 3°C of global warming could be reached already by 2050… 3°C of global warming by 2050 could lead to >4 billion deaths:
“”‘It can no longer be denied: Climate change is progressing unabated and accelerating. 1.5°C limit for global warming agreed upon in Paris may already have been permanently exceeded.”
“”There is a high risk that the limits of habitability will be exceeded in some regions of the world. This would significantly increase the likelihood that people would be forced to leave these regions.””
[Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1971582124689092946
“Breaking News! Code UFB!
“The 36-month running average for Earth albedo (reflectivity) hit another record low as of the latest data release for July, 2025 by CERES [see graph]. In other words, the darkening of the planet is growing stronger.
“The latest data from CERES has the planet warming over the latest 12-month period (through July, 2025) at the equivalent of about 9.3 Hiroshimas per Second or 807,000 per day. This is the highest rate since April, 2024.” Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1971220882958975384
“A Chinese-led research team has shed new light on how the Arctic Ocean may have intensified one of Earth’s most dramatic warming episodes 56 million years ago — a discovery that could carry a warning for today’s climate…
“Researchers found that the Arctic’s chemical balance was a key player. In today’s oceans, microbes usually act like a “slow-burning power plant”, using sulfur compounds to break down methane…”
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202509/25/WS68d50b5aa3108622abca2f22.html
“Seeds of change: Scotland’s agricultural sector is facing the realities of climate change…
“While water scarcity may be a concern predominantly for the east of the country, the Scottish Government is forecasting wetter winters for the whole country. This could cause crops to come into season too early, while still at risk of freezing temperatures later in winter, which can kill the crop.”
“The hell of high water. The UK’s east coast is one of the fastest eroding in Europe. As more storms approach, those losing everything to flooding feel abandoned.
“In October 2023, Brechin, a Scottish town near the North Sea, was hit by a wall of water that changed it forever. During Storm Babet, a record 150 to 200mm of rain fell in parts of the area.”
“Temperatures set to rise in France after record cold spell.
“Over 24 hours on Thursday, the temperature range in Paris was just 0.6C, a small range that is unprecedented so early in the autumn. Meteorologists had to go back to November 1974 to find a similarly small range. It has been cold enough for snow as low as 1,800m in the Alps.”
https://www.thelocal.fr/20250926/temperatures-set-to-rise-in-france-after-record-cold-spell
“‘Biodiversity loss, extreme weather and water scarcity’ is Europe’s future, report warns…
“The biggest challenges will be extreme weather events catalysed by climate change, biodiversity loss and insecurity in the water and food system. “More than 60 percent of the species in Europe are in a bad or poor condition”, said Catherin Ganzleben of the EEA.”
https://euobserver.com/green-economy/arf0e991da
“Climate change brings Europe fewer but heavier hailstones, experts find…
“Bigger hailstones cause more damage than smaller ones and the experts warned that the benefits of having fewer storms would be outweighed by the greater destruction caused by the more severe ones that do occur.”
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN THE SAHARA: while Europe is shivering, North Africa is baking in the unprecedented late September heat wave:
“INCREDIBILE Minimum 32.9C [91.2F] at Bordji B. Mokhtar, ALGERIA, unprecedented in N Africa this time of the year. Max temperatures near 45C, also at record levels.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1971599152263110686
“The ancient city of Carthage [modern day Tunisia] is under attack again—and this time the enemy is climate change.
“Once one of the most magnificent cities of the ancient world, Carthage was razed to the ground by the Romans in 146BC. Now its ruins, a Unesco World Heritage site, face new threats wrought by climate change: a rising sea level, increased salinity and intensified wind erosion.”
https://www.theartnewspaper.com/2025/09/26/ancient-city-carthage-under-threat-climate-change
“TANZANIA AGAIN. Every single tropical country is breaking records:
“Today historic heat at Dar Es Salaam with 34.0C [93.2F], hottest September day in history, few days after having its hottest night. Tanzania has been with relentless record heat since 2018.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1971648927628951826
“Record rainfall douses north, washing away 24-hour September record set in 1932 [Israel].
“More than 130 millimeters (5.1 inches) of rain fell Wednesday night and Thursday morning in and around the northern Israeli city of Nahariya, setting a new national record for the amount of rainfall measured in a single day during September.”
“Istanbul faces water crisis as dam levels drop to critical 30%…
“Meriç Albay, from Istanbul University’s Faculty of Water Sciences, Department of Marine and Freshwater Resources Management, said that the decline in rainfall is the main factor behind the falling dam levels.”
“Mounting Water Crisis a Major Test for Iranian State…
“While Tehran is indeed experiencing a water crisis, the rest of the country is in dire straits as well. Growing internal water demands, decades of poor water management, and transboundary water tensions on all sides have backed the Middle Eastern nation into a corner.”
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/mounting-water-crisis-a-major-test-for-iranian-state/
“How water fuels conflict in Pakistan…
“Water mains often become battle fronts in Karachi. My own research has documented many instances of violent conflict between different ethnicities and groups around manipulating water mains to gain access.”
https://theconversation.com/how-water-fuels-conflict-in-pakistan-262628
“Researchers find India’s Ganges river shrinking at fastest rate in 1,300 years.
“A study published Monday in the U.S. journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences quoted researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar and the University of Arizona in the U.S. as saying human activity was the main reason for the megariver’s shrinkage.”
“Hyderabad [central India] floods: Old City, IT hubs inundated as Musi River overflows.
“Several parts of Hyderabad, including the Old City, have been severely flooded after incessant rainfall… The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued red and orange alerts for the state and nearby areas.”
“Record heat is all over the tropics: unprecedented hot nights for this time of the year also in BANGLADESH:
“Both Bogra and Tarash had a Minimum temperature of 29.0C [84.2F], their hottest September night in history. October will start by smashing all such records.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1971552837957304728
“Unveiling the underlying mechanism of the record-breaking 2023 East Asian summer heatwave: The notable role of unprecedented marine heatwaves…
“Tsukuba, Japan—In the summer of 2023, East Asia, including Japan, experienced record-breaking temperatures and humidity, accompanied by unprecedented marine heatwaves in the surrounding seas.”
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1099860
“Endless summer in JAPAN:
“Today new September record at Tokashiki with 31.7C [89F]. Widespread temperatures 30C/35C with stifling hot nights (mins up to 27C) will continue in October: We can expect hundreds of records in the coming weeks.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1971517421656928390
“Cracked apples and bland grapes: Climate change reshapes Korean farms and dinner tables…
“”If I had 100 apples last year, about 80 split open. This year I tried everything I could to prevent it, but still about 60 percent cracked,” said Yoon, 83. “We call this ‘yeolgwa.’ When I started farming apples in 1972, this concept didn’t even exist.””
“Typhoon Ragasa weakens in Vietnam after leaving trail of destruction across southern China.
“The storm may have slightly weakened as it made landfall in China as the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane, but it still wreaked havoc in Guangdong, the southern Chinese economic powerhouse… in Yangjiang, one of the worst-hit cities, more than 10,000 trees were destroyed.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/china/china-typhoon-ragasa-hong-kong-macau-taiwan-b2833279.html
“The Dongsha Island weather station recorded a minimum sea level pressure of 922.6 hPa on September 23rd, when the center of Typhoon Ragasa passed through Taiwan. This is the lowest pressure ever recorded by Taiwan’s meteorological system!”
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/1971555818500960382
“14 provinces flooded, DDPM issues seven cell-broadcast alerts.
“Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported on Saturday (September 27) that heavy rainfall has triggered widespread flooding, affecting 80,000 households across 14 provinces. Seven deaths have been confirmed.”
https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/news/general/40056008
“Record heat in INDONESIA never ends: Since March 2023 records are falling every single today.
“Tonight it was the September hottest night in the airports of Jakarta and Semarang with Minimums of 26.1C and 28.0C [82.4F].”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1971765068913406181
“Tropical storm Bualoi kills at least 4, displaces 400,000 in Philippines.
“A tropical storm has killed at least four people and displaced hundreds of thousands as it battered the Philippines, triggering floods and mudslides, just days after a deadly super typhoon caused chaos in the country. Severe Tropical Storm Bualoi, the 15th tropical cyclone in the Philippines this year.”
“HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN SOUTH AMERICA:
“Yesterday 37.4C [99.3F] Tranque Lautaro ties CHILE HOTTEST SEPTEMBER DAY IN HISTORY. Today Records smashed in BOLIVIA: MAX: 40.6 Ascension de Guarayos, 39.1 San Javier; HIGH MINS: 27.6 San Jose, 25.7 San Javier. Brutal contrasts heat/cold.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1971686335468757035
“Rains cause floods and chaos on Santiago’s main avenues [Dominican Republic].
“The intense rains recorded on Thursday afternoon in Santiago due to a trough affecting the national territory, caused flooding in the main streets and avenues, generating heavy chaos in vehicular traffic. In roads such as Circunvalación Sur, Salvador Estrella Sadhalá and 27 de Febrero.”
https://deultimominuto.net/en/dominican-news/rains-cause-floods-and-chaos-on-santiagos-main-avenues/
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN THE CARIBBEAN:
“Relentless heat with stifling hot nights and Minimums >29C in Mexico, Bonaire, Cayman Islands,Grenada etc. In Particular the Minimum of 29.8C [85.6F] at Owen Int. AP is GRAN CAYMAN HOTTEST NIGHT IN HISTORY.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1971328824093835558
“When Crops Fail, Migration Becomes Survival in Rural Guatemala…
“…climate shocks have narrowed the margins that once allowed families to get by. The same families who once scraped by on small harvests and occasional construction work now find both sources of income unreliable.”
“They look like rivers; heavy rains cause flooding in San Cristóbal de las Casas [southern Mexico; not far from Guatemala].
“The streets of San Cristóbal de las Casas resembled raging rivers, leaving several vehicles stranded. It is recommended not to cross the waterways… Despite the spectacular nature of the situation, no injuries were reported.”
“Rains in Culiacán [NW Mexico] leave 43 vehicles washed away, 38 homes flooded, and 12 people rescued.
“Culiacán, Sinaloa. The preliminary toll from the heavy rains this Friday, September 26, in Culiacán includes vehicles swept away by the water , the evacuation of a daycare center, the closure of several roads , and, sadly, the death of a child due to drowning.”
“Fury as Camp Mystic to reopen after flash flooding killed 27 children…
““We are not only rebuilding cabins and trails, but also a place where laughter, friendship and spiritual growth will continue to flourish,” an email to past campers read. “We look forward to welcoming you back inside the green gates.””
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/09/24/camp-mystic-plan-to-reopen-children-killed/
“Eastern Arizona gets hit again with another round of flash flooding.
“In eastern Arizona, Globe residents are getting hit again with flash floods that are causing noticeable damage. Some video of the damage shows propane tanks floating away in the storm surge.”
“HISTORIC HOT NIGHT:
“Minimum temperature today of 88.6F/31.4C in the Badwater Basin, Death Valley. It’s exceptional and at record hot level for all Americas for this time of the year.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1971284768085172338
“Vancouver had a potentially record-breaking stretch of warm nights…
“Preliminary data from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) shows that from May 23 through Sept. 25, 2025, the temperature at Vancouver International Airport never dipped below 9°C. That adds up to 126 consecutive nights, one day longer than the 125-night streak set in 2023.”
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-warm-nights-record
“Moose Jaw national hotspot as a trio of heat records shatter yesterday.
“Southern Saskatchewan’s late-September heatwave reached record breaking levels yesterday as temperatures soared 10 degrees above normal across the region… the long-range forecast is showing sunshine and temperatures well above normal for the foreseeable future.”
“The record low for the 3-year running average for Antarctic sea-ice extent was set in early December, 2024. Current numbers are just slightly above the record.
“Will we see a new record low soon? The Climate 8-ball has been pocketed.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1971359842813317512
“Singapore the first to classify severe air turbulence as major in-flight threat…
“Climate change is cited as the main factor behind the growing number of clear-air turbulence incidents worldwide, which are the leading cause of in-flight injuries… Two serious events involving Singapore Airlines last year highlighted the danger.”
“COP30 urged to link climate justice with reparations for historical crimes.
“Hundreds of environmental and human rights groups and activists have penned a letter urging the upcoming UN climate conference, COP30, in Brazil to place justice and reparations for people unfairly affected by the climate crisis, colonialism and slavery at the centre of talks.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
IATA projects that air traffic in the Asia Pacific region will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.3%, nearly tripling by 2043. Global air passenger journeys in 2050 could exceed 10 billion.
Global bodies have been co-ordinating action on turbulence. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has a “Turbulence Aware” programme that enables aircraft to share data on turbulence with nearby aircraft.
Artificial intelligence is being developed to predict dangerous shifts in the jet streams, the narrow currents of fast–flowing air at around 30,000 feet in which airliners cruise. The streams, which move from west to east, are powered by differences in the temperature of air masses.
Studies have shown that the more extreme weather caused by climate change is creating fiercer changes in wind speed and direction, or windshear, involving the jet streams. The increase in airline traffic in recent decades has contributed to the rise in clear-air turbulence encounters because more planes are flying through the turbulence-prone corridors, for example, over the north Atlantic and Asia.
We shall see, we shall see, said the blind man
Never assume that because a man has no eyes, he cannot see”.
Master Po (to Young Caine): “Close your eyes. What do you hear?”.
Young Caine (responding to Master Po): “I hear the water. I hear the birds”.
Master Po (responding to Young Caine): “Do you hear your own heartbeat? Do you hear the grasshopper which at your feet?”.
Young Caine: “Old Man, how is it that you hear these things?”.
Master Po: “Young Man, how is it that you do not?”.
Young Caine: “Of all things, to live in darkness must be the worst”.
Seems to me, this is like Living in the Age of Darkness…but at least we’ll have AI to guide us through the turbulence…
reminds me of something my parents would say: “‘I see,’ said the blind man as he picked up his hammer and saw.”
also the grateful dead lyric: “comes a time/when the blind man takes your hand/and says ‘don’t you see?’”
no further insights
Man, they missed a trick by casting David Carradine in that show (Kung Fu) instead of Bruce Lee.
For obvious reasons, I doubt global air passenger journeys will exceed 10 billion in 2050.
While Bruce Lee was the original concept creator and was considered for the role of Kwai Chang Caine, other actors considered included James Coburn, Mako, and George Takei
Interesting line up, just bought a used box set to watch,
getting tired of the reruns of the original Star Trek,
Network Reluctance: The primary reason for casting David Carradine instead of a more authentic choice like Bruce Lee was that the network was concerned that American audiences would not be ready for an Asian lead.
Focus on “American” Caine: The creators also felt that no suitable Asian actor could carry the series and that the focus should be on the “American half” of Caine’s heritage.
Carradine’s “Brooding Power”: David Carradine himself maintained that he was chosen because he could portray the “brooding, quiet power” needed for the character, which he felt Lee lacked.
That’s show business
James Coburn was a huge admirer of Bruce Lee’s and often trained with him, funnily enough: .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k05hu_wZ0O4
Of course, Americans were more than ready to embrace Bruce, as evidenced by the huge mainstream success of “Enter the Dragon”, released the year after series 1 of Kung Fu. I guess it would have been quite a different type of show with more action and less philosophy. For me, Lee’s off-the-charts charisma and physical dynamism would been more than adequate compensation for Carradine’s “brooding quiet power”, but it boils down to personal taste, I suppose.
Here’s a link to the song John’s referencing: 🤘
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iTm-CuTQ6c&list=RD-iTm-CuTQ6c&start_radio=1
If we apply Johnny Silverhands’ theory about a paradigmatic conservative bias in climate science to that 3C warning from a mainstream source, 2050 is much too late. Should we get the AIcoal circular economy started just in case…?
Jupiviv, Johnny does make a very valid point about natural scientific reticence: “I knew he [Hansen] would only use data he found defensible. Just like the IPCC does, no climate scientist ‘goes out on a limb’ and considers work that isn’t well defined yet.”
He goes on to argue:
“In my estimates it’ll be closer to (and above) 3.5C by 2040, but I could see all sorts of numbers here really. Just one feedback going a single order of magnitude larger than we thought, and we end up with crazy numbers. And after that there’s just little point in estimating.”
https://substack.com/home/post/p-166737588
It’s basically all.funny stuff from now on, but let me try to get.this Rockster guy straight – the boundaries have been breached, but since there is still hope for an unrebreaching or whatever, there never was a boundary in the first place?
Why pay attention to the numbers if the numbers.are fated to go from bad to beyond stupid?
A little.trifle like 4 billion dead by the time Yamal goes to play in Qatar – which climate scientist wants to.talk.about that? Instead it’s “cure” time and “we can make a choice” for Rockster.
What are we supposed to wind up our verbalizations with these demented days? Be the spare change you want to see on the pavement? Corporate power.concedes absolutely.nothing, and never will? Free (insert doomed hellscape here)!
“A little trifle like 4 billion dead by the time Yamal goes to play in Qatar…”
4 billion dead to me implies the collapse of global civilisation with the financial system and international supply-chains inoperative, so, in practice translates to the vast majority of people being dead.
I could not find any documents reported to be by German Meteorological Society concerning this matter of partial “extinction” (Author Leon Simons) . Where would I go to find this document or publication about this topic?
Russ, that is Leon’s considered opinion.
You never got into grunge, Pan?
Well, I’m feelin’ that I’m sober
even though I’m drinking
But I can’t get any lower,
still I feel I’m sinkin’
AU
Sign in
Soundgarden – Outshined
Sometimes I want to say to my coworkers “I can do this job baked, 1/2 cut and snizzed up on blow. And I’m knocking it out of the park. You can’t even a do 1/2 asses job and you’re sober. YOU GOT FUCKIN’ PROBLEMS!!”
The Declaration of Independence is the mother of The Constitution of the United States? Don’t mess with mama, she might use corporal punishment.
“… That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends [life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness], it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government … [and] when a long train of abuses and usurpations… evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.”
Thomas Jefferson — The Declaration of Independence (1776).
Hey Tommy, it’s not the government that is ever the problem. No matter what country one lives in, it’s the voters that elected the govt. or accept a dictatorship. How did your family, friends & neighbors vote, against you?