Huge thanks to my August sponsor; details pending.
“Global sea-ice extent is currently second lowest for the date and roughly 2.5 million square kilometers below the 1991-2020 average.
“The Climate 8-ball says: Everything is fine!”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1955610634193883331
“Falling ice drives glacial retreat in Greenland…
“…underwater waves, which can be as tall as skyscrapers, are not visible from the surface but prolong water mixing, bringing a steady supply of warmer water to the surface. This process increases melting and erosion at the glacier’s edge and drives ice calving.”
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1094553
“‘No country is safe’: deadly Nordic heatwave supercharged by climate crisis, scientists say…
“Norway, Sweden and Finland have historically cool climates but were hit by soaring temperatures, including a record run of 22 days above 30C (86C) in Finland. Sweden endured 10 straight days of “tropical nights”, when temperatures did not fall below 20C (68F).”
“Lithuania declares agriculture emergency after crops damaged by rain…
“About 50-70% of Lithuania’s agricultural harvest has been harmed or destroyed by heavy rainfall this summer, the government said on Wednesday as it declared a national emergency to help farmers. “In many places the farmers cannot harvest their crops because the fields are flooded,” the government said in a statement…”
“Seas off the Yorkshire coast are likely to break temperature records in 2025, according to scientists…
“Prof Rodney Forster, from the University of Hull, said the sea is responding to global warming. He said: “The North Sea appears to be a bit of a hot spot, warming faster than anywhere else and we don’t know yet why that is.””
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg7jd3ljzyxo
“How heatwaves are ruining British roads.
“Changing weather patterns are exposing the fragility of UK transport networks… Heat has worsened the conditions of already weak road surfaces, the AA said, with worn or damaged tyres more susceptible to failure.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/08/14/how-heatwaves-are-ruining-british-roads/
“Another record day in FRANCE with temperatures up to 42.1C / 107.8F (4 days in a row 42.1C/43.4C!)
“31 monthly records, including 9 all time (see list by Meteociel below) including Nerves and Chateau Chinon.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1955689794685829555
“Incredible serac fall from Hengsteren Glacier on Wetterhorn (3,690 m, Grindelwald, Switzerland).
“37 [98.6F] degrees in the valley yesterday when this serac carve off. Meanwhile on the Monta Rosa the same day the temp at 3500m was between 6 and 13°C!” [Melaine Le Roy]
https://x.com/subfossilguy/status/1955202850985857335
“Exceptional hot nights in the French Riviera and Italian Flowers Riviera (Liguria):
“Daily 24h Minimum 31.5C [88.7F] at Alassio (night minimum 32.5C) on 12 August: Arguably one of the hottest nights ever recorded in the world North of 44 latitude.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1955554779419246864
“EUROPEAN HEAT WAVE [East]:
“43.5 again in ALBANIA! NIGHT MIN 31.8 [89.2F] Bar, Montenegro HOTTEST NIGHT EVER RECORDED IN THE BALKANS. Min 30.0 Sazan Island ALBANIA HOTTEST NIGHT IN HISTORY; Min 27.9 Ploce, Croatia record; MAX 41.8 Andravida GREECE all time record.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1955337198678458416
“Bulgaria’s Climate Shifts Toward Northern Greece’s Heat Patterns, Warns Climatologist.
“Bulgaria’s climate is increasingly mirroring that of northern Greece, climatologist Simeon Matev told BTA, noting that the country has seen record-breaking temperatures become almost routine over the last seven to eight years.”
“Thousands Flee Wildfires Across Greece as Heat Withers Crops.
“Greek coastguard vessels evacuated tourists and locals, while a volunteer firefighter died in Spain as authorities struggled to quell blazes across the Mediterranean… Thousands fled the town of Kato Achaia in northwest Peloponnese — with 550 cars burnt at Patras Customs Office…”
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2025/08/13/835541.htm
“Spain wildfires are ‘clear warning’ of climate emergency, minister says.
“The heatwave-fuelled wildfires that have killed two people in Spain over recent days, devouring thousands of hectares of land and forcing thousands of people from their homes, are a “clear warning” of the impact of the climate emergency, the country’s environment minister has said.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/13/spain-wildfires-climate-crisis-heatwave
“Firefighters struggle to contain forest fires in northern Morocco.
“The blaze started in the Dardara forest on the outskirts of Chefchaouen amid record-high temperatures, an official from the Moroccan National Agency for Water and Forests (ANEF) said. He added that specialized aircraft and civil protection teams were still working to put out the fires.”
“Cape Verde declares state of emergency after deadly floods.
“Deputy Prime Minister Olavo Correia told the BBC the floods were “catastrophic”. Rescue teams are desperately searching for missing people, while roads, homes and vehicles have been severely damaged.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c87eyv810jyo
“Several neighborhoods in the urban commune of Siguiri were flooded this Wednesday, August 13 [Guinea].
“This is the result of heavy rain that fell on the city last night. Teleladji, Nanko, Bolibana, and Hérémakono are the most affected areas, according to our information.”
https://mosaiqueguinee.com/2025/08/siguiri-plusieurs-quartiers-touches-par-des-inondations/
“ABSOLUTE INSANITY ON THE RED SEA:
“Aqaba JORDAN min 35.0 max. 49.6 [121.3F] and Eilat ISRAEL min 35.7 max. 48.8. Hottest day & night ever recorded on the Red Sea… There had never been anything like this or even close in the area.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1955706088281587899
“Blistering heatwave escalates Gaza starvation struggle.
“Life in Gaza is already incredibly tough, and now a relentless heatwave is making things even worse—adding to the struggle for scarce water, food, and the essentials families need to survive.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3st_sPvS96E
“Blistering overnight conditions near the Dead Sea appear to have broken the record for hottest overnight temperatures recorded in Israel, set only a night earlier.
“Israel Meteorological Service data shows that temperatures at the Sodom weather station in the southern Dead Sea evaporation pools only dropped to 38° C (100.4° F) at 5 a.m. this morning…”
“Iraq’s Tigris and Euphrates near collapse as water crisis deepens.
“…if Iraq fails to reach binding water agreements with upstream states, particularly Turkiye, the capital and multiple provinces may soon face interruptions in municipal water supplies, plunging the country into a full-scale drought emergency.”
https://shafaq.com/en/society/Iraq-s-Tigris-and-Euphrates-near-collapse-as-water-crisis-deepens
“INSANE WORLD RECORDS HOT NIGHTS:
“Minimum 32.8 Bunji PAKISTAN 1470m asl August WORLD RECORD hottest night at that elevation (2nd only after that set last month!); Crazy Min 37.8 [100F] Alula SAUDI ARABIA – SAUDI ARABIA HOTTEST NIGHT EVER and WORLD RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM >600m asl!“
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1955281050252292603
“IMD issues red alert for flash floods, cloudburst risk in Uttarakhand [India], week after Dharali disaster…
“The weather office has alerted the Himalayan states, including the Jammu region, of extremely heavy rainfall up to 210 mm in the next day and heavy rain in the next 6-7 days.”
“JAPAN RECORD HEAT:
“Record heat never ends in Japan. More records of Highest Minimums in the past 2 days: 29.2 [84.6F] Nakakoshiki, 27.1 Katori, 26.0 Isa, 25.7 Kihoku.” [Over 7,500 people nationwide were taken to hospitals due to heatstroke in the week leading up to August 10th, reports Volcaholic on X.]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1955206657979318330
“Three people died amid torrential downpours that swept from the Yellow Sea and across the northern parts of the greater Seoul area on Wednesday, with heavy rains concentrating in Incheon and northern Gyeonggi [South Korea]
“The three people died in Incheon, Gimpo and Pocheon as rainfalls exceeded 100 millimeters (3.9 inches) per hour.”
“Hong Kong Extends Record Rain Warnings as [Typhoon] Podul Skirts City…
“Parts of Hong Kong have received as much as 400 millimeters (15.7 inches) of rain since midnight, with schools shut and residents advised to shelter in place. A black rain warning was issued for a fifth time, breaking a record that was set earlier this month…”
“Perth weather: Record winds and heavy rain fells trees, sends debris flying across metropolitan area and Western Australia]…
“At about 7pm on Wednesday, a gust measuring 117km/h [73mph] ripped through the Jandakot area. This gust is the strongest wind recorded there since 1990, exceeding the previous record of 113km/h.”
“Harden residents await property repairs six months after freak storm [NSW].
“Harden residents and business owners are waiting for homes to be repaired and insurance claims to be approved after a February hailstorm. The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) and insurance providers recently met with customers in Harden about their concerns.”
“The Amazon Rainforest Approaches a Point of No Return.
“In “Amazon Tipping Point” — Third-Place Winner of the 2025 Yale Environment 360 Film Contest — Brazilian filmmakers capture striking images of clear-cutting and explore how human activity is so damaging the world’s largest rainforest that it will not be able to recover.”
https://e360.yale.edu/features/2025-film-contest-third-place-amazon-tipping-point
“Heavy rains cause severe flooding in Havana [Cuba].
“The heavy rains recorded on August 11 once again tested Havana’s resilience against extreme weather events, leaving flooded streets, trapped vehicles, and inundated homes in various parts of the city.”
“CARIBBEAN ENDLESS RECORD HEAT:
“Min 29.3C [84.7F] yesterday Belize City Port HOTTEST AUGUST NIGHT EVER RECORDED IN BELIZE AND ALL CENTRAL AMERICA. There is barely a corner in the tropics (bar Peru and Ecuador ) which isn’t breaking records.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1955256525334696042
“Torrential rains have forced Mexico City’s main airport to shut down flights for hours for the second consecutive day, stirring chaos in one of Latin America’s busiest airports.
“The flight disruptions come as the Mexican capital experiences one of its heaviest rainy seasons in years, leading to constant flooding in other parts of the city.”
“Climate models reveal how human activity may be locking the Southwest [US] into permanent drought…
“Earth and ocean scientists found that the PDO is now being strongly influenced by human factors and has been since the 1950s. It should have oscillated to a wetter phase by now, but instead it has been stuck. Our results suggest that drought could become the new normal for the region unless human-driven warming is halted.”
https://phys.org/news/2025-08-climate-reveal-human-southwest-permanent.html
“More than 400 people are suspected to have died from extreme heat in Maricopa county, Arizona, so far this summer, according to official figures, as the brutal current heatwave enters its 12th day.
“August is on track to be the hottest on record, with temperatures hitting at least 110F (43C) every day apart from one so far.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/13/death-toll-extreme-heat-arizona-county
“Flash flooding leaves at least three dead in Tennessee…
“Flash flooding and torrential rain has cost at least three lives in Tennessee on Wednesday and caused havoc on the roads around Chattanooga, as the county mayor declared a state of emergency.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/13/tennessee-flash-floods
“Pittsburgh region sees driest start to an August since late 1800s.
“After a spring and early summer that saw several damaging storms and floods, the precipitation well has run dry in August. The last time the Pittsburgh region saw no rain in the first 10 days of August, Grover Cleveland was serving his first term as president in 1887…”
“Floodwaters from glacier near Alaska’s capital city break record levels and prompt evacuations.
“Record floodwaters released by the nearby Mendenhall Glacier crested Wednesday in a river that flows through Alaska’s capital city with no immediate reports of major damage, though officials warned that high water would remain for several hours.”
“Multiple monthly and all-time heat records today in Eastern Canada! Up to 38.6°C [101.5F] in Miramichi, New Brunswick.
“Prince Edward Island all-time record shattered (38.1° / 100.6F]) and Newfoundland all-time record tied (36.7°)!” [Patrick Duplessis]
https://x.com/Pat_wx/status/1955403480916762855
“Global sea-surface temperatures are continuing to be record hot compared to any pre-2023 year.
“Over the last 3 years, the oceans have warmed on average by the equivalent of 870,000 Hiroshima bombs worth of heat per day.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1955285391617245651
“Carbon credits: The dark heart of the climate ‘solution’ that simply does not work…
“Carbon market projects almost always fail to provide any real climate benefit. Worse, they have a long history of subjecting host communities to various abuses and human rights violations. They simply do not work.”
“Microplastics in crops may threaten food production…
“…there is growing concern that these particles, once inside plant cells, can interfere with photosynthesis — the process by which plants convert sunlight, water, and carbon dioxide into energy in the form of sugars. This may impede plant growth, with potentially serious consequences for food production and climate change.”
https://www.dw.com/en/photosynthesis-under-attack-by-microplastics/a-73623861
I rely on donations and tips from my readers to to keep the site running. Every little bit helps. Can you chip in even a dollar? Buy me a coffee or become a Patreon supporter. A huge thank you to those who do subscribe or donate.
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
Carbon credits
Bahahahaha
Carbon credit scam explained by Mr Maddoux at OSB .
”To be absolutely fair, one has to ask the question: “Why are 400+ rigs still working in the shale oil basins?” Which has to be followed with another question: “Why are they all saying the same thing?” I don’t get it, because your numbers look trustworthy.
The tax write-offs loom large as a big reason. This new parity between storing carbon in saline aquifers as opposed to using it for EOR makes it easier for companies to claim carbon credits under the OBBBA. It’s one of those congressional bill writer’s tricks–when you read the numbers, the prices per ton of CO2 sound small and insignificant, but when you add them up for a big company like Devon they blow your mind. For that company alone, for example, the number “one-to-two-billion per year from carbon credits” has been bantered about.
Not to make this political, but it can’t be NOT political and even begin to address the issue, these low crude prices have Mr. Trump’s hand all over them. Along with others, I strongly suspect the Saudis are taking their “spare capacity” from storage (which is immense), not from goosed production. And the carbon capture & utilization or storage was just an obvious trade-off to keep shale producers at their breakeven task. In short, the price has been politically rigged.
I was amazed to see the level of activity in the Powder River, for example. The Mowry shale is oil-dense but it is deep in most places (as in 12,000 feet) and the volcanic ash from a big volcano very long ago blew into that part of Wyoming. Metamorphosis did the rest: the welded tuff was turned into bentonite, which is interbedded in the Mowry, and it sops up water, so is a fracking shield. Plus, there’s precious little water for fracking. They claim that’s the next hotspot but it’s at least ten bucks per barrel more expensive than the Permian. Again, the carbon bribe placed in the OBBBA looms large as a massive, alternative source of cash equivalent for these companies. It’s like catching moonbeams with a butterfly net and illuminating them with a flashlight to sell them.
Thank you for that enlightening analysis. The OBBBAMAGA bill is well named, as oil production in the US had never increased so much in the history of the US in the span of one administration than it did during the Obama/Biden years. All The trumpery of drill, baby, drill can do nothing to change that, as the peak of shale, especially given what you stated in your comment, has a very strong probability of occurring during this decade.
Yes, many thanks, Ravi.
So, if I am understanding Mr Maddoux correctly (tired brain may not be), The Trump administration is goosing production in an unfavourably low-price environment by allowing the shale industry to boost profitability via bogus (aren’t they all) carbon credits. Amazing the creative ways in which the global economic superorganism will keep reconfiguring to maintain growth.
The EU is piling back into carbon credits, I saw, as it ties itself in knots trying to meet its 2040 emissions targets.
Heyyy nice to see Pittsburgh make it into the roundup. Can confirm that we had over a week of dry, sunny days to start the month, although it rained a few times yesterday.
Seeing the article about Spain’s wildfires, I’m always struck by people saying that wildfires, droughts, etc. are “warnings” of climate change. They aren’t warnings. The warnings were ignored. These are results. This is happening.
John, glad you finally got a bit of rain.
You make an excellent point, but of of course journalists will tend to frame extreme weather events as warnings for as long as they imagine it is possible for us to heed them.
For the oil guys ” All analysts have trashed the IEA report ” . Not worth the paper it is written on . This was discussed in yesterdays comments .
Let us lay down a mental marker to check back and see how they did, Ravi.
US will issue debt in Stable coins as US Dollar buyers evaporate. The fraud of the century.
From Decentralized Hype to Centralized Risk: The Stable coin Trap
The new stable coin legislation that was pushed through the Senate this week effectively ties the US Treasury to crypto, because nothing says “sound fiscal footing” like betting the government’s cash flow on digital tokens and market hype.
This new plan forces stable coins to be backed by short-term T-bills. That creates an estimated $2–$3 trillion in new demand for government debt, which is nearly half the current size of the T-bill market. On paper, that looks like a win. In reality, it’s a circular feedback loop: Crypto demand fuels stable coins, stable coins buy T-bills, T-bills fund deficits. The government becomes addicted to speculative capital flows. And round and round we go.
It’ll work great, until it doesn’t. The whole setup depends on risk appetite staying high. Thing is, crypto isn’t some stable, predictable pillar of the economy. It’s a sentiment-driven casino, where whales move markets and retail euphoria inflates bubbles. Confidence in that environment can evaporate overnight.
When the music stops, we will see a wave of stable coin redemptions. To meet those redemptions, issuers have to dump T-bills into the open market. Yields will then spike and liquidity will dry up. Government borrowing costs jump at exactly the worst time. Suddenly, the entire short end of the Treasury curve is caught in a feedback loop running in reverse.
Crypto is becoming exactly what it claimed to replace: a systemic risk the government can’t afford to let fail. And it won’t be the VC whales or offshore exchanges who foot the bill. It’ll be the taxpayers, either directly or through backdoor bailouts and Fed liquidity if things unravel.
Once you tie public finance to crypto flows, the line between a market correction and a fiscal crisis starts to blur. A major stable coin unwind won’t just hit DeFi yield chasers, it’ll slam the short end of the Treasury market. That’s when the Fed and Treasury will have no choice but to step in, to stabilize yields, backstop liquidity, and calm foreign holders.
So yeah, we’re already halfway to a too-big-to-fail bailout economy for crypto. Not because it earned that privilege, but because we let it entangle itself in the core plumbing of the financial system.
This isn’t just risky, it’s desperate. You don’t latch public finances to speculative manias unless you’re out of conventional tools. And if your fiscal strategy depends on token demand holding up, you’ve already lost the plot.
What makes this even more dangerous is the moral hazard baked in. We’re handing fiscal stability to unregulated private actors, namely stable coin issuers, hedge funds, and crypto exchanges, many of whom have no oversight and no skin in the game if it blows up. Just like the shadow banks in 2008, they profit on the way up and vanish when the tide goes out.
They’re calling this “financial innovation,” and anyone who questions it a Luddite. But let’s be clear: this isn’t modernization. It’s monetizing the mania and papering over structural deficits by plugging them into whatever speculative engine happens to be hot this cycle.
If this goes sideways, and history says it eventually will, it won’t just hurt crypto. It could shake global trust in US debt markets, and by extension, the dollar itself. Because now our “risk-free” assets are being propelled up by the same forces that gave us meme coins and NFT rug pulls. That’s how systems collapse, not with one catastrophic decision, but with a series of reckless bets made under the illusion that the good times will last forever.
Ravi, I share your scepticism. To me it looks like the last designer steroid in the drawer, and may very well bring on a fatal heart attack.
Remove air-conditioning , refrigeration and elevators ( lifts) from the urban environment and
the cities will be empty . The question then is where will this urban population migrate ? Makes me go —hmmm .
https://medium.com/enrique-dans/the-coming-air-conditioning-crisis-and-how-to-avoid-it-078100f78444
P.S ; The author is talking about solutions that don’t exist , but still .
Much of the urban population will die in place, obviously.
I think the mirror video is an old one. Everything i am reading from Palestines on the ground now is there is no water or food. Electronic infada is covering this on there live stream. They are begging for food and water it’s heartbreaking to read daily. Considering the mirror record take it with a grain of salt or old bs. Look at who owns it. Do you trust him?
Heather, The Daily Mirror is owned by Reach plc, which is, in effect, owned by its shareholders. The footage, which they are certainly releasing as current, may not be as dystopian as some, but the women talking in it paint a bleak picture of life on the strip.
I don’t believe The Mirror has an agenda to play down the situation. This is from their print version on the same day: “Gaza’s sickening starvation death toll rises as Israel attacks intensify.”
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/gazas-sickening-starvation-death-toll-35725481
I did not want the effects of the heatwave on Gaza to go unreported but there was actually very little in the news specifically looking at it from that angle. There has since been this article published discussing the sharp rise in skin diseases amidst the heat (the women in The Mirror’s video also discuss the skin problems):
https://trt.global/world/article/54b548439f8c
Another great report on habitat destruction. Consequences can be entertaining. Can’t wait to see insurance premiums become unaffordable. Bet the tax breaks for the rich will help them afford premiums.
All the beings in the universe responded to: Who is the dumbest species in a universe’s poll. Earthlings were at the top of the poll with a 100% vote.
Wonder who would take the top position for the biggest losers to drive their species into extinction?