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“Few seem to understand how worrying it is that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been negative for over 5.5 years and global warming has still significantly accelerated.
“This wasn’t factored in by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf in their [recently published] variability corrected warming rates of ~0.43C per decade.” ‘[Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/195413851380220317
“Warming Rivers Are Choking Arctic Ocean of Nitrogen — And Scientists Warn It Could Be Catastrophic.
“A new study led by Bridger J. Ruyle was published, tracking the six largest Arctic rivers over the past 20 years. The results are striking: these rivers now deliver much less of the vital inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and much more of the dissolved organic nitrogen (DON). This shift could disrupt the region’s fragile marine ecosystems.”
“Exceptional mildness in the Arctic:
“Temperatures up to 25C [77F] on the Russian Arctic coast at 70/72N for days. The Svalbard are recording maxes >15C/17C for days with even minimums >10C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1954838653286383670
“Sea waters around UK experience record temperatures, causing dramatic changes in marine life.
“There have been dramatic changes to marine life as a result of seas around the UK having their warmest start to the year since records began, according to provisional data from the UK Met Office.”
“A pregnant female was among a pod of 23 pilot whales found dead after a mass stranding in Orkney.
“Emma Neave-Webb, of Scottish Marine Animal Stranding Scheme (Smass), said the whales appeared to have been healthy, and that the cause of the incident may never be known.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c23pprnypz9o
“Overheated homes: why UK housing is dangerously unprepared for impact of climate crisis.
“…the focus has been mainly on how to keep draughty homes warm in winter, to stop them leaking heat – and money, and carbon dioxide alongside. The challenge of cooling overheated homes is new – and the current draft of the FHS fails to meet it…”
“Swarm of jellyfish shuts nuclear power plant in France.
“Three reactors at the Gravelines nuclear power plant in northern France shut down automatically late on Sunday, according to the French nuclear company EDF, after the filter drums of the pumping stations became packed with a “massive and unpredictable” swarm of the marine creatures.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/11/swarm-of-jellyfish-shuts-nuclear-power-plant-in-france
“France heatwave: record 43.4C [110.1F] in Aude and intense heat to continue.
“Argeliers, in Aude (Occitanie) set a record with a high temperature of 43.4C on Sunday, August 10, reports Météo France and La Chaîne Météo… [Also, Bordeaux has its hottest day on record with 41.6°C / 107°F].”
“35.1°C [95.2F] at 1410 m asl! ABSOLUTE RECORD AT GAVARNIE [in The Pyrenees] – SET YESTERDAY – DESTROYED BY +1°C!!!
“THIS IS NO MORE CLIMATOLOGY. THIS IS DAILY MORBID NIGHTMARE! The worst part is that it will probably be broken again in the coming days…” [Melaine Le Roy]
https://x.com/subfossilguy/status/1954907158748754295
“Flames near Madrid as wildfires burn across Spain and Portugal
“Emergency crews are battling multiple wildfires across Spain and Portugal, as a record-breaking heatwave continues across Europe. Firefighters worked through the night on Monday in an effort to contain a blaze burning in the municipality of Tres Cantos, located 23km north of Madrid.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c8ryvxlr6dlo
“All time record (POR over one century) pulverized in Al Ayoun (Layoune) right on the coast in Western Sahara with 49C [120.2F] (first 48C and 49C in history).
“MOROCCO experiencing brutal record heat on the Atlantic coast – 47.9 Essaouira Airport and 46.5 at Safi.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1954206229611336126
“Heavy rains leave 7 dead in Cape Verde.
“The Cape Verdean government on Monday declared a state of emergency on the islands of Sao Vicente and Santo Antao, where heavy rains [163mm / 6.4 inches in just one hour] and flooding have left seven people dead and caused significant material damage.”
https://english.news.cn/africa/20250812/741d6aada8ae4dcebd0b20fb2fe41f76/c.html
“Wildfires forced evacuations and reportedly destroyed several homes in Albania, as firefighters battled blazes across the country on Monday.
“Over a dozen fires were active in the Balkan nation, after hundreds of firefighters and soldiers controlled most of nearly 40 fires that flared in the last 24 hours, according to the defence ministry.”
https://www.newagebd.net/post/europe/272754/wildfires-rage-in-albania-as-heatwave-grips-balkans
“Historic Balkan heatwave – 43.6 [110.5F] Tirana, 42.4 Durres – ALL TIME RECORDS; ALBANIA HOTTEST AUGUST DAY.
“Min. 30.2 Podgorica MONTENEGRO HOTTEST AUGUST NIGHT; MIN 29.1 Mostar BOSNIA HOTTEST NIGHT EVER; Min 30.8 Split, 28.7 Lastovo,28 Rab, 27.7 Knin CROATIA HOTTEST AUGUST NIGHT; 39.5 Sibenik, 38.9 Dubrovnik ATR RECORDS.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1954986062557647292
“Hundreds evacuated in northwestern Turkey as authorities fight wildfires…
“Helicopters were seen scooping water from the Dardanelles Strait and dousing the wildfires, while water-spraying police vehicles worked to extinguish flames that had spread to some residential buildings in the area.”
“Jordan woke up Monday to thick dust blanketing the skies, as a severe heatwave and unstable weather conditions continued to impact the country.
“The heatwave, which began Friday, has driven temperatures well above seasonal averages, intensifying the combined effects of heat and airborne dust.”
https://en.royanews.tv/news/62044
“INSANE BLAZING HOT NIGHTS ALLOVER MIDDLE EAST; MINIMUMS *all time Records:
“SAUDI ARABIA: 35.7 Arar*, 35.0 Al Jouf*, 31.5 Turaif; Records smashed in ISRAEL and JORDAN: 35.7 [96.3F] Sedom, 33.8 Eilat*, 33.0 Aqaba* is hottest night ever in the Red Sea coast.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1954915352502055084
“Record Temperatures Forecast in Israel Amid Unprecedented Heatwave.
“The current heatwave is expected to last around a week and see temperatures 8°C to 10°C higher compared to the average summer in Israel… The Israel Meteorological Service forecasts temperatures exceeding 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit) in several areas, mainly in the Jordan Valley in central-northern Israel.”
“Nationwide power outage hits Iraq as heatwave pushes grid to breaking point.
“Iraq was plunged into a nationwide blackout on Monday after record heat and surging electricity demand overloaded the grid, authorities said, as temperatures climbed towards 50°C [122F] and millions marked a major Shiite pilgrimage.”
“Severe flooding, hailstorm hit Russia’s Dagestan, roads washed out.
“In just a few hours, the region received more than half of its average monthly rainfall. Water inundated streets and roads in Makhachkala, Kaspiysk, and other cities. Heavy downpours in Makhachkala turned streets into rushing streams.”
https://caliber.az/en/post/severe-flooding-hailstorm-hit-russia-s-dagestan-roads-washed-out
“Afghanistan climate crisis: drought and floods drive mass exodus.
“Afghanistan faces a brutal climate reality. Relentless drought and flash floods have driven over 500,000 from their homes in 2024 alone. Fields are gone, villages washed away, can the country survive this?”
“Massive mudslide kills 7 volunteers repairing flood damage in northern Pakistan.
“A massive mudslide early Monday killed seven volunteers as they repaired a drainage channel damaged by flash floods in northern Pakistan, officials said, leaving three others injured.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/pakistan-gilgitbaltistan-china-scientists-experts-b2805319.html
“Japan moves to evacuate millions of people as torrential rain triggers flooding and landslides…
“In Kumamoto prefecture on Kyushu, Japan’s southernmost main island, streets and neighbourhoods were submerged under about a metre of water, with rivers overflowing, vehicles swept away, and infrastructure heavily damaged, according to The Japan Times.”
“The lowest temperature in Shanghai’s Xujiahui this morning was 32.2 degrees [90F], breaking the city’s record for the highest minimum temperature since meteorological records began in 1872!”
[Jim Yang]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/1954522635259531663
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN THAILAND:
“Records are being smashed every day in 100% of the regions, absolutely unprecedented. August records today: 37.7 Chayaphum; 37.2 Kalasin; 36.8 Roi Et; 36.6 Mukdahan… Heat indexes routinely exceed >50C [122F].”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1954162454461562996
“Extreme heat is driving dramatic declines in tropical birds…
“In tropical regions such as the Amazon and Panama, the populations of some birds have fallen by as much as 90 per cent even in mostly untouched rainforests. Now, research has found that more intense heat extremes are likely to be the main factor behind these declines.”
“Worst bleaching on record for Western Australian coral reefs.
“World-famous coral reefs along Western Australia’s (WA) coast have suffered the worst bleaching on record after the state’s “longest, largest and most intense” marine heatwave, scientists say… The damage …includes areas previously unscathed by climate change.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq877llq099o
“Antarctic glacier melt reveals remains of Briton who died in 1959 accident…
“Dennis Bell was conducting a survey and geological work in 1959 as part of a two-year assignment, alongside three other researchers who were stationed at Admiralty Bay, a small UK base on King George Island.”
“Breaking News! Code Yikes!
“As of August 9th, Antarctic sea-ice extent is second lowest on record for the date. The Climate 8-ball says: f&%kery ahead! [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1954527959441871093
“Rise in dengue fever outbreaks across the Pacific driven by the climate crisis, experts say…
“Dr Paula Vivili, deputy director general of the Pacific Community (SPC), said historically dengue outbreaks were seasonal. “However, due to climate change, transmission seasons are lengthening, and some areas are experiencing year-round dengue risk,” Vivili said.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/12/dengue-fever-outbreaks-samoa-fiji-tonga-climate-crisis
“Brazil set to weaken environmental controls despite Lula’s intervention…
“On the last day for him to take a decision on what environmental campaigners have dubbed the ‘devastation bill’, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed 63 of the text’s nearly 400 provisions, while giving a green light to the rest.”
“Intense rain floods Mexico City’s Zócalo, forces airport closure.
“Torrential rain in Mexico City on Sunday flooded streets and homes, interrupted services on the subway system and forced the suspension of takeoffs and landings at the capital’s airport for around four hours, affecting more than 100 flights and almost 15,000 passengers.”
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/intense-rain-floods-mexico-city-zocalo-airport-closure/
“Fires, Storms and Blazing Temperatures Forecast for Western US.
“Fires, storms and the potential for near-record high temperatures across the western US are in the offing for the coming week. The Gifford Fire, about 125 miles (201 kilometers) northwest of Los Angeles, had burned 113,648 acres and was 21% contained through Saturday.”
“14 inches of rain in a day is easily a 1-in-1000 year event for Milwaukee. It’s insane this far north.
“Actually 14” in 10 days meets the 1-in-1000 year criteria. Yes, read that again. To be clear, this doesn’t mean it only happens once every 1000 years, it means the chance in any one year is .1%.” [Jeff Berardelli]
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1954740762236649928
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT WAVE IN EASTERN CANADA:
Temperatures close to 38C [100.4F] in the islands. Most important August records (a couple of decimals from their all time highs): 37.5 Bathurst; 37.1 Kouchibouguac [New Brunswick]. More records tomorrow!”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1955065037032145169
“Canada wildfire season already second worst on record as experts warn of ‘new reality’.
“With hundreds of wildfires burning out of control, Canada’s 2025 fire season is already the second-worst on record, as scientists report climate change is prolonging and exacerbating the burning, leading to more destruction, evacuations and smoke-filled skies.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/11/canada-wildfire-season
“The world’s largest meat supplier is aiming to burnish Brazil’s green credentials at this year’s COP30, presenting evidence that the country’s cattle aren’t so harmful to the environment…
“Tomazoni said Brazil has real examples of carbon capture in production that are expected to be presented during COP30…The cattle ranching industry in Brazil has also faced criticism that it has been a major cause of deforestation in the country.”
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“Hi Pan, a fine but grim overview. I’m picking one item from your basket of doom.”
1. Iraq and the Power Outage
An interesting article with an even more interesting conclusion – one you see repeatedly when it comes to blackouts caused by peak demand.
In many countries across the Middle East and North Africa, the solution to power outages during extreme heat sounds simple: double the capacity of the electricity grid. On paper, it’s a straightforward calculation. In Iraq, that would mean adding 27,000 MW of generation and distribution capacity, at a cost of around $40 billion. In theory (!!) this would provide enough power to cut climate-related outage damages – currently about $5 billion per year – in half, with a payback period of sixteen years.
But the spreadsheet ignores the physical reality of cooling water. Such a doubling would require up to 200 million cubic meters of extra cooling water in a hot summer – equivalent to the annual consumption of millions of people. In regions already suffering from severe water stress, that means choosing between air conditioning, irrigation, or drinking water. Without a guaranteed water source, this “extra capacity” is nothing more than an evaporation fantasy: once the heat strikes, output drops and the blackout becomes inevitable. The real bottleneck is not the turbine, but the tap.
On top of that, you create a cycle of permanent overcapacity that is only used during peak hours – roughly 10 to 15% of the time. As a result, the cost of peak power in Iraq soars to around $158 per megawatt-hour, two to three times more expensive than baseload. And that’s without factoring in the extra cooling water and distribution costs. Permanent overcapacity is therefore not a rescue plan, but a luxury product that no one can afford.
2. The Paradox of Overproduction
It sounds so logical: build more than you need so you’ll always have a buffer. But once that buffer becomes permanent, it turns into a cost trap. Overcapacity means high fixed costs for installations that stand idle most of the time. That drives up the unit cost, erodes margins, and makes the system dependent on subsidies, debt, or export dumping.
In Iraq, this translates into turbines that run only 10% of the time, making peak power two to three times more expensive than baseload – even before you add hidden costs such as cooling water and distribution. In China, it’s factories running at half capacity, flooding the world with surplus output at rock-bottom prices, while domestic debt quietly piles up.
The paradox is universal: the more you build to avoid shortages, the greater the risk of undermining profitability and resilience. Overproduction may look like security, but is often an expensive illusion.
Thank you, Zip. You make some fascinating points, as ever.
I suppose some of that theoretical oversupply slack would be taken up with accelerated warming goosing demand, but that is cold comfort (no pun intended) and in any case moot, due to the water-limitation you mention.
Unsurprisingly, corruption is also an issue for Iraq’s electricity consumers:
“In a troubling exposé, a series of revelations have surfaced regarding systemic corruption and inefficiencies plaguing Iraq’s electricity billing system, revealing a complex web of deceit that undermines the nation’s financial stability.”
https://shafaq.com/en/Report/Exclusive-Corruption-and-mismanagement-drain-billions-from-Iraq-s-electricity-sector
Fires, floods, fevers, food crop failures… “Faster than expected” future came with fury…
Let us be good to each other, in this short time we have left. I feel that is the only thing we can do.
Peace be with you all!
“Let us be good to each other, in this short time we have left.”
Wouldn’t it be lovely if we were, Goran. It seems unlikely en masse but I hope, at least, there will be some acts of self-sacrifice, heroism, compassion etc. shining out amidst the gathering gloom.
“Swarm of jellyfish shuts nuclear power plant in France.”
… this is not a headline I expected to read today. I spit the cheap cask white outta my mouth on reading that!
It wasn’t on my climate mayhem bingo card either, tbh, James.
Perhaps the jellies know their time is coming and this was a preliminary raid. 😱
“Why jellyfish could be the biggest winners from climate change… The oceans of the future won’t just be bigger from melting sea ice; they will become acidic seas where the jellyfish reign supreme.”
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2019/05/climate-change-may-bring-acidic-oceans-full-of-jellyfish/
“Few seem to understand how worrying it is that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been negative for over 5.5 years and global warming has still significantly accelerated.”
The IPCC used to down weight “hot models” because they didn’t “like” them as I recall. They’re still doing it but I suppose these days it’s more about a carefully coordinated series of omissions rather than straight up pig-headedness.
Jupiviv, Jim Hansen is doing a good job of making that down-weighting look foolish.
As cynical as I am about the IPCC as an organisation, I do believe most of the contributors are sincere and well-intentioned:
“The IPCC experts are, in short, the most informed people on the planet on climate. What they think matters. So the Guardian contacted every available lead author or review editor of all IPCC reports since 2018. Almost half replied – 380 out of 843, a very high response rate.
“Their expectations for global temperature rise were stark. Lisa Schipper, at the University of Bonn, anticipates a 3C rise: “It looks really bleak, but I think it’s realistic. It’s just the fact that we’re not taking the action that we need to.”
“Their overwhelming feelings were fear and frustration. “I expect a semi-dystopian future with substantial pain and suffering for the people of the global south,” said a South African scientist who chose not to be named. “The world’s response to date is reprehensible – we live in an age of fools.””
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2024/may/08/hopeless-and-broken-why-the-worlds-top-climate-scientists-are-in-despair
Oh phew. I don’t live in the global south so I’ll be fine, sounds like! /sarc
What’s sad is an ecologist is afraid to say the o-word even when it’s effects are everywhere in the habitat & knowing how a species’ action is destroying what was a garden of Eden.
Eww! Bugs!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHdqxSfOpR4
The worse the environment gets, the better I like it, because the suffering is exactly what this self-centered, narcissistic, completely invested in it’s ego, species deserves. I have no empathy for fools ,but
bless their hearts & thoughts & prayers for their extinction.
I’m like Luther Vandross’ song “Never Too Much”, to rub into idiots faces. I would tell this species to get fucked but that would add more habitat destroyers.
I don’t have to make anyone feel bad, because their present is & their future will be doing a fine job without my help.
“Birds are gone”
“Grew up and have lived in the Midwest for most of my life. The lack of morning songbirds has really stood out this spring & summer. Used to be that you would never think about counting them because there would be so many. Now I can literally count them on one hand. ” – 4bonhoffer