Many thanks to this month’s sponsor, who wishes to remain anonymous but who wonders if there’s any old Oil Drummers out there who might enjoy browsing the archive at http://theoildrum.com/special/archives.
“Explainer: How human-caused aerosols are ‘masking’ global warming…
“There is around half a degree of warming today that is “hidden” by aerosols. Without the cooling from sulphate and other aerosols, today’s global temperature would already be close to 2C above pre industrial levels, rather than the approximately 1.4C the world is currently experiencing.”
https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-human-caused-aerosols-are-masking-global-warming/
“Madder Than Expected – how climate scientists and the IPCC still won’t tell the truth about accelerating climate change…
“In spite of their well-informed fears, the vast majority of scientists continue to research fragments of the problem before writing up their findings in papers they know will be out-of-date by publication, while the IPCC’s response is simply to bury their heads still deeper in the sand.”
https://jacksondamian.substack.com/p/madder-than-expected
“The disinterest from media for the complete mismatch between NASA satellite data and IPCC climate models is baffling.
“Many leading climate scientists have published findings on this for years, but I haven’t seen a single in depth media item communicating this to a wider public.” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1933486317565845951
“Observed acceleration [of warming] is not the worst case. The fact that there are uncertainties also means that the rate of increase could be even higher.” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1933258332413853808
“Arctic sea-ice volume for May, 2025 just dropped from PIOMAS and May, 2025 came in at second lowest, behind May, 2017. [Extent is currently fourth lowest.]
“And here’s the 12-month running average for Arctic sea-ice volume, current through May, 2025:” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lrfz6rfi3225
“Mercury pollution rides ocean currents north, threatening Arctic wildlife…
““We’ve monitored mercury in Arctic animals for over 40 years. Despite declining global emissions since the 1970s, we see no corresponding decrease in Arctic concentrations – on the contrary,” said senior author Rune Dietz, an ecologist at Aarhus.”
https://www.earth.com/news/mercury-pollution-rides-ocean-currents-north-threatening-arctic-wildlife/
“Yorkshire has become the second area of England to enter drought after the country recorded its driest spring in 132 years.
“Hosepipe bans could be possible if the region did not have significant rainfall in the coming weeks as, despite recent showers, reservoir stocks were continuing to dwindle.”
“A huge thunderstorm has left homes flooded and roads blocked after torrential downpours battered Kent last night…
“Bus operator Stagecoach said it was forced to cancel services between Dover and Canterbury last night due to “severe flooding”. The A256 in Tilmanstone, near Dover, was closed…”
“Early-season heat wave in France intensified by climate change.
“Exceptionally intense and early summer heat is forecast to spread across France from June 12 to 16, with temperatures soaring well above normal for mid-June. Climate Central analysis shows that human-caused climate change made this extreme heat up to five times more likely.”
https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index-alert/france-june-2025
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN EUROPE:
“38.1 Pruniers FRANCE; Monthly record:32.5 Rocroi; 34.7C in GERMANY. Next night will be HISTORIC. HUNDREDS of stations in France, Germany, Switzerland and Benelux will have their pre-solstice warmest night in history, for many the earliest tropical night ever.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1933585528747671688
“Crazy heat! With 30°C [86F] at 11:00 am at 1,100 m above sea level in Chamonix no doubt Bossons Glacier tongue will rapidly continue its collapse!
“…Crazy discharge from Rhône Glacier tonight (9:30 pm!) after a scorching day! Still 19°C at 1900 m currently!” [Melaine Le Roy]
https://x.com/subfossilguy/status/1933465808291741707
“From the Alps to Tien Shan [central Asia], same story for glaciers this year, on track for record losses! Little winter snow and already crazy heat!
“32°C at 1100 m in Chamonix; 16°C at 3600 m in Tien Shan.” [Melaine Le Roy]
https://x.com/subfossilguy/status/1933518296596308245
“Severe thunderstorms: “very large hailstones of 8 cm”, “high risk of tornadoes”… beware of extreme phenomena, meteorologists are sounding the alert [France].
“…there is a high risk of tornadoes on a Pays de la Loire – Hauts-de-France axis this Friday evening (30-45%). Note that it is rare to observe such a high level of risk for this parameter in these regions.”
“Storm hits Aragon [Spain]: hailstones “like tennis balls” and a fire caused by lightning.
“Hail has wreaked havoc in Aragon. Friday’s storm left damage, some severe, in towns such as Almonacid de la Cuba, Codo, Fuentes de Ebro, and Quinto, among others . In the latter, according to the mayor, Jesús Morales, hailstones the size of tennis balls fell on cars, warehouses, and houses, causing significant damage.”
“A strong storm in Azuara [Spain] floods the streets, drags away several cars and sweeps away part of a bridge.
“The heavy rainfall recorded late Friday afternoon unleashed chaos in the Zaragoza town and forced some residents to take refuge on the roofs of their homes.”
“Economic situation in the Valencia province six months after the floods.
“The recovery of economic activity in the area is proving to be uneven: while spending by residents has quickly normalised, commercial activity is progressing at a slower pace, with a significant number of business establishments still inactive.”
“Climate change impacts on biological production in the Mediterranean Sea…
“In just over 20 years, the northward shift of the subtropical jet stream—a high-altitude airflow—caused by climate change has reduced primary production in the northwestern Mediterranean by about 40%. This marked reduction—the highest ever described—affects the base of the marine food web and could significantly impact living resources, ecosystem health and marine dynamics…”
https://phys.org/news/2025-06-climate-impacts-biological-production-mediterranean.html
“Death toll in the Eastern Cape rises to 78 after record-breaking rain, South Africa…
“Last year Cape Town had record rainfall in July and tens of thousands of homes were damaged. In 2022 at least 459 people died when torrential rains hit the port city of Durban. Even before the floods, large parts of South Africa — including regions in the Eastern Cape — had seen the wettest month on record through June 5.”
“Hot, cold, snow, floods and hot again! 35C [95F] on the NAMIBIAN coast with hot berg wind, in the Southern African winter and it’s gonna get hotter.
“Record hot nights and tropical nights are on the way in Namibia and South Africa. AC will be needed in some areas… in winter!”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1933598248620482919
“Driest winter in 100 years prompts Kinneret island’s re-emergence. Experts are calling for the government to act, as drought grips Israel’s north.
“After disappearing beneath the rising waters of the Sea of Galilee five years ago, the small island opposite Kibbutz Ma’agan is set to re-emerge, Hebrew media reported on Thursday—a stark symbol of Israel’s worsening drought.”
https://www.jns.org/driest-winter-in-100-years-prompts-kinneret-islands-reemergence/
“EXTRAORDINARY EVENT:
“NIGHT MINIMUMS up to 32C [89.6F] in the Turkish Highlands; Hundreds of Records smashed with extreme margins: Min 31.8 Nusaybin; 29.7 Silopi etc. HOTTEST JUNE NIGHTS IN TURKISH HISTORY.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1933591412903145778
“Pakistan’s cities sizzle under extreme hot weather: PMD.
“The country experienced extremely hot and dry weather on Friday with the perceived or ‘Feels Like’ temperature crossing 50 degrees Celsius in four cities… The temperature in Bahawalpur was recorded as 46°C, but the perceived temperature reached 55.8°C — the highest in the country.”
https://www.dawn.com/news/1916931/pakistans-cities-sizzle-under-extreme-hot-weather-pmd
“India to face twice as many heatwave days, 43% rise in extreme rainfall by 2030 due to climate change: Study…
“According to the study, major cities in India, including Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Patna, Surat, Bhubaneswar, and Thane, are likely to experience a twofold increase in heatwave days by 2030. These rising heatwave conditions are expected to lead to more erratic and intense rainfall.”
“Beyond heatwaves, how warmer nights are making summer unbearable [India].
“…not only is India experiencing warmer nights, but nighttime temperatures are rising faster than daytime heat, creating conditions that prevent the human body from recovering from daily heat stress… The pattern of extreme heat during days—with little or no relief during nights—brings severe health risks.”
“As India’s groundwater runs dry, calls for reform grow.
“Last month, the southern Indian city of Bengaluru faced an early start to the monsoon and experienced its wettest May ever. Beneath the heavy rains and floods, water shortages may seem a far cry. Yet they are a common problem.”
https://dialogue.earth/en/water/as-indias-groundwater-runs-dry-calls-for-reform-grow/
“Silchar in Assam breaks 100 year record with over 400 mm rain in 24 hours.
“Record breaking insistent rain has halted the public life in Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura with flash floods. Silchar in South Assam recorded four hundred fifteen point eight millimeter [16.4 inches] rainfall in 24 hours breaking a more than 100 year’s record.”
“Three-and-a-half million years of Tibetan Plateau vegetation dynamics in response to climate change.
“The Tibetan Plateau supports the largest alpine meadow ecosystem globally… By analogy to the past, we suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the current Tibetan Plateau meadow is at risk of major transformation.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-025-02743-2
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT WAVE IN CHINA:
“53 more records for June broken today, mostly in Sichuan. Several provinces >40C [104F]. Next week the heat will just get worse with 46/47C again in Xinjiang and night temperatures up to 35C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1933514141735522691
“Typhoon Wutip made landfall in Hainan on the evening of June 13. Affected by the typhoon, Hainan recorded a maximum gust of 34.4m/s.
“Sanya received 565.7mm [22.3 inches] of rainfall in 24 hours, breaking the city record!” [Jim Yang]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/1933726685310128172
“Typhoon Wutip leaves three dead, thousands displaced in central Vietnam.
“Typhoon Wutip has caused widespread devastation in central Vietnam, resulting in three fatalities and significant damage to agriculture and infrastructure, according to the Vietnam News Agency on Saturday.”
https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/typhoon-wutip-leaves-three-dead-thousands-displaced-in-central-vietnam/
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN SOUTHEAST ASIA:
“35.9C Miri MALAYSIA and >37C [98.6F] in inland stations means first 37C in June in the Sultanate of Brunei.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1933567311220207819
“RECORD MILDNESS IN PATAGONIA AND ANTARTICA. Unusually mild weather is gripping the Patagonia and swathes of Antarctic coast in this start of winter:
“June Record High Minimum at Rio Grande ARGENTINA with 7.2C. Maximum temperatures up to +7C [44.6F] in Antarctica.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1933631762690699583
“Brazil to auction oil exploration rights months before hosting Cop30…
“The “doomsday auction”, as campaigners have called it, includes 47 blocks in the Amazon basin, in a sensitive area near the mouth of the river that fossil fuel companies consider a promising new oil frontier.”
“Why the tropics have been unusually calm and what that means for hurricane season…
“Subtropical oceans across the planet, including regions of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian, have surged to record levels of warmth, and that may be having the counterintuitive effect: fewer tropical storms.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/06/13/ocean-warming-cooling-patterns-hurricane-season/
“Breaking News! Code Yikes!
“As of June 11th, the sea surface temperature for the Gulf of Karankawa [Gulf of Mexico] is now 3.0 standard deviations above the 1991-2020 mean. Yesterday’s temperature of 29.21°C [84.6F] is second warmest to 2024’s 29.68°C.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lrgcxmntd22z
“Heavy rain lashed the Guadalajara metropolitan area [Mexico], leaving hail, flooding, and neighborhoods without power…
“Zapopan firefighters also reported several stranded vehicles in San José del Bajío; Another in Pedro Simón Laplace and Orisbayo Jabonero, in Paseos del Sol, with a person inside and a tree falling; another in …Arcos de Guadalupe, where a vehicle was swept away.”
“San Antonio [Texas]: at least 11 people killed by floods as crews search for missing…
“More than a dozen totaled cars were found stuck and overturned in a creek after over 7in (18cm) of rainfall fell in parts of the nation’s seventh-largest city. Three of the 11 confirmed dead were between 28 and 55, according to officials.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/13/san-antonio-floods
“Charlotte firefighters rescued more than 30 people across the Queen City during a flash flood emergency Thursday night [North Carolina].
“The heavy rainfall triggered dangerous conditions in several neighborhoods… As Tyese Patterson sloshed through the water in the dark, she didn’t know what the day would bring. She found all three of her vehicles flooded.”
“49 homes destroyed by Rowena Fire, evacuation orders remain in effect [Oregon].
“During damage assessments, the Wasco County Sheriff’s Office says they identified 49 homes that were destroyed. The sheriff’s office says they expect this number to grow… As of Friday morning, the Rowena Fire has burned around 3,831 acres and remains at 0% containment.”
https://www.kptv.com/2025/06/13/49-homes-destroyed-by-rowena-fire-evacuation-orders-remain-effect/
“Part of Alaska is under a heat advisory. That’s a first…
“…warming in Alaska is two to three times the average of the rest of the globe. That is part of the reason heat advisories are now on the table in the state.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/06/13/alaska-first-heat-advisory/
“As climate change worsens global locust crisis, researchers offer solutions.
“…studies show how tropical cyclones, extreme rainfall and its resulting warm and moist soil have triggered several recent desert locust outbreaks. “Yet, it remains underprioritized in [the] climate space,” they say.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
Two degrees was set as a limit because beyond it conditions become extremely unpleasant and precarious for most of humanity and, although this wan’t stated explicitly, because it is a tipping point beyond which runaway to hothouse conditions is likely inevitable. The speed at which we are approaching the limit and recent experiences of extreme climate indicate that a post two degree world is actually going to be worse than was originally thought.
Because climate change has accelerated while the other aspects of limits to growth appear to be about on schedule the worst impacts of both will be hitting through the thirties.
Almost.everyone will be just one failed harvest, one invasive disease, one wildfire, one destructive storm, or one JIT delivery failure away from desolation. or death. Large and growing areas will have unsurvivable wet bulb temperatures, and most of the world will be uninsurable for habitation. Destructive climate events will be hitting frequently enough that recovery will be impossible in the calm periods. Climate refugees will be in the billions but they will certainly be joined by economic and political migrants and it will be difficult to know one from another.
Agriculture needs clement, predictable and stable weather, increasingly land areas with fertile soil will be getting none of those, never mind all three. Our main cereal crops evolved through artificial selection in the holocene, probably as far as it is possible to take them, so it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that they don’t do so well in more extreme conditions. At the same time soil erosion and aquifer depletion will be adding to significant food shortages, and diesel shortages will make cultivation an transport more difficult and expensive.
Accompanying all this there will be a true world war, maybe fairly low key and with hundreds of factions rather than two, so that the enemy of your enemy will be both you ally and foe and everything in between, but the conflicts will be everywhere and unresolvable. There will be no outside aid organisations and only temporary, localised charity, if you are lucky. Family and tribes will come first and quickly become all that matters. History would suggest that as the violence rises wealth inequality will probably narrow as everybody gets poorer. All this is beyond any kind of political solution or amelioration for any groups and attempts by competing elites to prop up some kind of business as usual economic system will almost certainly accelerate the decline.
Apart from some fishery collapses we have not yet seen what a major trophic collapse because of biodiversity loss looks like, but they are coming and I think will be devastating beyond anything imaginable.
That is what happens in the first year we pass two degrees (my prediction: 2032, based on actually thinking 2034 but applying the “everything is always worse and faster” rule – and the Olympics will be cancelled). That will be the least bad year that we ever again experience.
I love your cheery optimism George! With WW3 possibly launched the end of IC may come even sooner.
I try to channel my inner Pollyanna having seen how successful Panglossian delusion and blinkered denial has been so far.
😂 You do an outstanding job, as always. Much appreciated!
Exactly.
✨ Stark posts recently by many here 😞 about the real extent of changes in the pipeline and recent political, economic shocks.
Just a recent personal event that served as reminded to myself as we had ample warnings and time to avert such in our collective awareness.
Like a friend pointed out long ago…”we take the seemingly easy way”,
which I would add fundamental transformation of the inner is stronger than the outer (per Jiddu Krishnamurti).
So, was visiting a shopping center and approached a very young college age lady with an outside modest table for the Sierra Club.
She looked somewhat dejected and called out to me. Not really wishing to stop I did anyway as she said “Do you know about ….”
So, my reply, ” Yes, very well, actually I did the same for Greenpeace before you were born”. No need to show me and let me provide a donation.
“Well. Sir, we don’t do that and everything is electronic…..” Indicating a credit card membership.
I ended by giving her cash, thanking her for the good work, making people aware and keep going, it’s important….the Sierra Club is still active “saving” bits and pieces of wilderness and wildlife from the corporate machine after visiting their website.
Probable should have suggested her visit here, but that might have crushed her and did more harm than good.
As a PostScript, while at Greenpeace, I remember one leader of the office stating that Climate Change would be the key issue in the years ahead.
This was the late 1980s when Dr. James Hansen came forth in his testimony.
So, anyway, lots of good intentions and actions my many…
and the beat goes on…mass of confusion..the Temptations 1970
Vince, there are still battles worth fighting and if funding Sierra Club helps them do that then good for you for chipping in.
George, that is a great summary. I’ve sacrificed specialisation for the overview but I think it’s worth it because looking at our predicament from as many angles as possible gives you the most realistic understanding of its severity.
As your comment suggests, there are all sorts of ways our multiple converging crises can compound and cascade.
Too bad we past 2c long ago. Hold on its a rough ride between 3-4
Yes, totally agree, 2c already passed and the exponential function always operational. Homo sapiens will go extinct with a 3c rise. Peaceful Now
3C certainly won’t be doing us any good. 😬
Comments were exactly what is needed today. 2 degrees ain’t no joke…
Of course, this day’s C&E was marked by the seated return of the IPCC’s fearless leader, our Skea-God himself.
And in the substack post to flesh out Skeamania, the Substacker importuned a “radical/sane shift” to save humanity.
I’ll take “What Was Never Going to Happen By This Species ” for $200, Alex.
2C is indeed no joke and unnervingly imminent. We could luck out and not see it until the late 2030’s. 🤞
For those looking to make a go of things when industrial civilisation seizes up, the rapid loss of masking from those dimming aerosols is going to be a problem.
Re Jim Skea and the interesting speculation about his motives and mindset in that Substack piece, my own best guess is that he’s just a super-ambitious bureaucrat who can’t see much beyond his own career aspirations.
I’m waiting to see people on their knees, praying to their multiplicity of gods to save them. I’m thinking the gods’ response might be; “You fucked it up, you fix it.” Even the all-seeing gods can’t see the species’ ego stupidity that prevents it from accepting the problem. When it’s too late, there’s no fix.
“How Many People are Born Each Day in 2025?
World Birth Rate
Births Per Day
362,437
Births Per Hour
15,102
Births Per Minute
252
Births Per Second
4.19”
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/births-per-day
Saw a video comment: “Need some tissues for your issues?” 😉
I’m probably not going to be throwing that one at people, TR, but I will admit it did give me a chuckle.
Lots of worrying small events occurring across the globe. Watch out we should see a very disturbing large one in the near future?
I once thought Doom Wizard was a bit pessimistic but now his 2030 timeline seems optimistic.
This is a heat wave in an ocean I’d classify as icy and too cold for swimming…..
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jun/15/deadly-algal-bloom-in-south-australias-coorong-an-environmental-eye-opener-ecologist-says
Sean, Northern Ireland, which I can see from my window on a clear day, has been having terrible trouble with algal blooms in its inland waters in recent years:
“The plight of Lough Neagh is being highlighted by a major festival with blue-green algae from the lough being displayed in a water cooler. Images of the toxic substance are also being shown on digital billboards as part of the Belfast Photo Festival.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/belfast-northern-ireland-rebecca-black-b2769617.html
Sunday post. (sarcasm) More good news. (/sarcasm)
Race to mine metals for EV batteries threatens marine paradise
Stark images, captured from a drone by environmental campaigners and shared with the BBC, appear to show how nickel mining has stripped forests and polluted waters in one of the most biodiverse marine habitats on Earth.
Our destruction of pristine environments is somehow even more painful when we are patting ourselves on the back for being “green” as we do it.