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“Record-breaking heatwave triggers 17-fold increase in Greenland ice melting.
“Unseasonably high temperatures struck Iceland and Greenland in mid-May, with weather stations across both countries recording extreme heat far above seasonal norms.”
“The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection…
“s expected, an increase in sea surface salinity or a decrease in sea surface temperature leads to an increase in mixed layer depth in nearly all CMIP6 models due to an intensification of deep convection.”
https://arxiv.org/html/2408.16541v2
“Scientists mapped what happens if a crucial system of ocean currents [AMOC] collapses. The weather impact would be extreme.
“Sea ice would spread southward as far as Scandinavia, parts of the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, the research found. This would have a huge impact on cold extremes as the white surface of the ice reflects the sun’s energy back into space, amplifying cooling.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/11/climate/ocean-currents-amoc-collapse-extreme-cold
“North Sea and Baltic Sea suffer from “marine heatwaves”.
“The Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) recorded exceptionally high water temperatures in the North Sea and Baltic Sea in March, April and May 2025 – another sign of advancing climate change.”
“More incredible heat in SIBERIA.
“Minimums up to 25C [77F] at 48N latitude and 21C at 62N latitude with even moisture and showers, a 100% tropical-like weather near the Arctic (ex: Min 21.1 Khanty-Mansiysk today). And it will get even hotter and more humid next few days. Just insane..”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1932467987208089642
“Russia’s largest grain producing region, Rostov, has declared a state of agricultural emergency in some drought-hit areas, the local governor said on Tuesday.
“The emergency regime, which enables farmers to seek compensation for losses, also serves as a signal for markets on prospects for this year’s harvest.”
“Drought fears in Europe amid reports May was world’s second hottest ever [as per NASA and Copernicus EU].
“Parts of north-western Europe experienced the lowest precipitation and soil moisture levels since at least 1979… May also saw abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the north-eastern Atlantic, reaching the highest ever recorded, according to Copernicus.”
“EU countries consider softening methane emissions law on gas imports.
“European Union countries may demand that Brussels simplify the EU’s methane emissions law, which has stoked concerns from companies that it could hamper imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas, according to a document seen by Reuters.”
“Huge hailstones in north of Portugal.
“Residents recorded the meteorological phenomenon in photos, which were shared on social media. In addition to the hailstorm, there was rainfall and thunderstorms on the night of Tuesday into Wednesday.”
https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2025-06-11/huge-hailstones-in-north-of-portugal/98460
“A spectacular hailstorm leaves Navarrete [Spain] white and causes the suspension of classes this Thursday.
“The town center was flooded and the streets looked like rivers. While the hail in Logroño left striking images and flooded streets because the sewers couldn’t handle the storm, in Navarrete, the accumulated hail left huge blocks of ice.”
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT. Record heat from Africa to Europe to Asia:
“46.9C [116.4F] in SENEGAL; 45.1C in ALGERIA Minimums up to 33C; earliest 40C in ARAGON, Spain (according to Vigorro, this heat was unprecedented before June 15th); 42.8C in TURKEY Minimums up to 28C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1932506816141013122
“At least 49 people have died in flooding in South Africa with toll expected to rise, officials say…
““As we speak here, other bodies are being discovered,” Eastern Cape Premier Oscar Mabuyane told reporters at a briefing, adding that it was one of the worst weather-related disasters his province had experienced. “I have never seen something like this,” he said.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2604226/world
“Iraq braces for first summer heatwave starting Friday, temperatures to hit 52°C [125.6F].
“Baghdad – Iraq is set to be affected by its first summer heatwave of the year, with temperatures expected to climb significantly starting this Friday, June 13, 2025, the Iraqi Meteorological Organization and Seismology announced on Tuesday.”
https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq/iraq-weather-warning-heatwave-temperatures-52c/
“Taliban Has Delivered Only Limited Helmand River Water, Says Iranian Official.
“An Iranian official said Monday that negotiations with the Taliban over the Helmand River water rights have yet to yield tangible results, accusing the group of failing to meet their obligations under a decades-old treaty.”
https://www.afintl.com/en/202506107808
“India manipulating flow of Indus River to disrupt Pakistan’s crop patterns: minister.
“Federal Minister for Climate Change and Environmental Coordination Musadik Malik has said that India was manipulating the flow of the Indus River system by “holding and releasing, holding and then flooding” to disrupt Pakistan’s crop patterns and food security.”
“EXTREME HEAT IN INDIA & PAKISTAN:
“Minimums up to 34C, max. 49C [120.2F]. June records of High minimums in India – 31.0 Najibabad, 30.0 Golaghat. Terrible heat wave in Northern Pakistan, including the capital Islamabad (lat 33.3N,525m asl) Min 30 Max 45 and Lahore.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1932781456960745641
“Delhi’s Unusual Weather Pattern: Wettest May Followed By Scorching June.
“Delhi’s 2025 weather was unusual: record May rainfall brought cool temperatures and no heatwaves, followed by a severe June heatwave due to a delayed monsoon. The IMD introduced a new forecast system.”
“HISTORIC – 38.9C [102F] Lau Fau today is HONG KONG’S HOTTEST JUNE DAY IN HISTORY.
“This exceptional 38.9C today is not just Hong Kong hottest June day in history but it’s only 0.1C from the highest temperature ever recorded anywhere in Hong Kong.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1932516710516732271
“Torrential rains battered northeast China on Monday, triggering floods across the region…
“Floodwaters in Huanan Square in downtown Dalian reached 1.2 meters deep, stranding more than 20 vehicles including two buses that were nearly submerged to seat level with passengers still aboard.”
https://www.bastillepost.com/global/article/4929413-heavy-rain-brings-flooding-to-northeast-china
“One dead, hundreds evacuated as floods sweep northern Vietnam.
“Flash floods triggered by intense rainfall killed one person and damaged homes, farmland, and infrastructure across northern Vietnam on June 8 and 9, 2025. Authorities reported widespread flooding and landslides…”
https://watchers.news/2025/06/10/one-dead-hundreds-evacuated-floods-northern-vietnam-june-2025/
“Massive flooding hits Cagayan de Oro [Philippines].
“The intense downpour triggered flooding in various barangays, submerging houses and stranding motorists… Some vehicles were also seen being swept away by floodwaters. Other vehicles were also submerged.”
“Extreme weather could send milk prices soaring, deepening challenges for the dairy industry [Australia].
“Climate change and extreme weather have been battering farmlands and impacting animal productivity, creating mounting financial strains and mental health struggles for many farmers.”
“Breaking News! Code Yikes!
“For the first time this year, Antarctic sea-ice extent is more than 1.5 million square kilometers below the 1991-2020 mean. Extent currently ranks third lowest for the day, behind (you guessed it) 2023 and 2024.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1932784140300226988
“Ship anchors are doing great harm to protected ocean life on the Antarctic seafloor…
“In areas where ships had dropped anchor, the ocean floor was visibly disturbed. Grooves and striations crisscrossed the seabed, and patches of mud covered the habitat. At these sites, marine life was sparse or entirely absent.”
“Rain chaos in Mexico City: flooding and hail in Álvaro Obregón and Cuajimalpa…
“Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada announced that an orange alert has been issued due to heavy rains in both districts, prompting the activation of Operation Tlaloque to support cleanup, remove fallen trees, dredge removal, and provide assistance to pedestrians and motorists.”
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN THE DEATH VALLEY – after a 122F/50C max. tonight Minimum was an incredible 96.4F/35.8C,close to the 1-15 June record of 97F.
“The heat might easy little bit from tomorrow but will increase in Arizona and SCal, only to return harsher than before few days later.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1932913596792541328
“Oregon wildfire prompts evacuations and closes interstate in Columbia River Gorge.
“Photos shared by the transportation department showed flames burning alongside and in the median of the highway as wind gusts fanned smoke. A water-dropping helicopter and a plane dropping fire retardant helped fight the fire from above.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/oregon-portland-b2768484.html
“Canada has already surpassed a year’s worth of charred land from wildfires.
“Wildfires across Canada are devouring land at a pace unseen in any year other than the historic 2023 season. With more than 7.8 million acres (3.15 million hectares) burned, according to Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre data, the season has already raced past the annual average, even when including the past two major fire seasons.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/06/10/canada-wildfires-land-burned-maps-smoke/
“Structural brain differences found in kids who experienced prenatal Superstorm Sandy exposure.
“Prior research suggests that prenatal exposure to stressors, such as extreme weather, may disrupt neurodevelopment and lead to morphological differences in children’s brains—including basal ganglia volume differences. The basal ganglia is involved in motor ability and possibly also functions such as emotion regulation.”
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1086308
“The doubling of the RATE of sea level rise is a crucial indicator of how fast our climate is changing.
“Earth’s Energy Imbalance has more than doubled! Sea level rise from ocean heating requires about 50 times more heat than sea level rise from melting of land ice.” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1932722192229232785
And some good news for a change: “Nature returns to Ukraine’s ravaged Kakhovka Dam landscape…
“Birdsong interrupts the babbling of the many brooks, as Maniuk spots a sea eagle. “Just seeing that makes it worth bringing along a pair of binoculars,” he said, gazing skyward. “That’s the true ruler of the Dnipro floodplains.””
https://www.dw.com/en/nature-returns-to-ukraines-ravaged-kakhovka-dam-landscape/a-72850774
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
I’ve been looking through that Rahmstorf paper: “Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly”. It shows climate change accelerating to above 0.4 degrees per decade in the 2015 to 2024 period but to me it seems that once a few more years of data is available the reality will likely be that there has been another break point at 2023, so 2015 to 2022 will be (maybe) around 0.35 and 2023 to (maybe) 2030 well above 0.5, and then another acceleration becomes due, likely starting with an El Nino.
Driving forces like CO2 concentration growth and albedo drop from global sea ice coverage have clearly seen a significant rise in the last three years and these are on top of the still to be entirely quantified changes in reduced aerosols, cloud-temperature feedback and increased overall temperature and salinity based stratification. But it may also be that things get noisier because of temporary stratification events as wind intensities fluctuate.
Overall though climate change is expected to reduce wind speeds because differential warming at the poles and equator reduces the energy differences that drive advection, so enhancing the general trend to increased ocean stratification and accelerating surface warming. There is no reason to think another jump like 2023 won’t happen at any time, though El Nino years might be more likely, and the chance is almost certain to grow as things get hotter. Despite this month’s cooldown 2 degrees by 2035 is looking better than evens and a civilisation killing 3 degrees in the 2040s pretty likely.
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-6079807/v1
Agreed. 2°C next decade.
Hell world by 2040 and after.
Paul Beckwith says that paper is a big deal and he’s right. They stripped out the short-term noise from ENSO cycles, volcanic activity, and solar variability. Now the recent increase in warming is statistically undeniable.
Agreed that we will cross 2⁰C around 2035.
The Planetary Solvency report (2024) by IFoA states that it is highly likely (>90%) their “catastrophic risk” scenario of 2⁰ will occur, which includes in excess of 2 billion deaths.
I need to lie down…
Thank you, George, for that very neat summary, and, of course I agree with all three of you. 2C warming above (misleading) 1850-1900 pre-industrial next decade seems likely to me.
Aaron, I recall reading a figure of 1 billion deaths at 2C but who really knows?
A recent King’s College study found that: “…vast swaths of the planet — areas the size of the United States — could become too hot for human life. At 2°C above preindustrial levels, six percent of Earth’s landmass would exceed a threshold such that even young, healthy adults could no longer maintain a safe core body temperature.”
https://www.zmescience.com/ecology/climate/only-half-a-degree-of-warming-could-triple-earths-areas-too-hot-for-human-survival/
Can you imagine the upheaval from that alone?
“Scientists mapped what happens if a crucial system of ocean currents [AMOC] collapses. The weather impact would be extreme.” Nice thumbnail for dramatic effect.
I’m still not convinced the collapse of the AMOC is going to cause significant cooling in the UK, Netherlands, etc. Maybe during winter months but I think the heating is going to be more dominant than they anticipate in “the study”. Is it “a study” or a scientific paper? There’s a big difference in my opinion.
“The research uses only one climate model; others will rely on different models and will likely come up with a variety of scenarios, he told CNN. What ultimately happens will depend on the how the two opposing trends play out: AMOC-induced cooling and climate change-induced heating. A “large uncertainty” remains, he said.” No kidding?
“The collapse of a crucial network of Atlantic Ocean currents could push parts of the world into a deep freeze, with winter temperatures plunging to around minus 55 degrees Fahrenheit in some cities, bringing “profound climate and societal impacts,” according to a new study. ”
NEW STUDY? The paper they cite was published in June 2024.
Science reporting generally aggravates me – you can probably tell. Plus, this CNN article is a rehash of an earlier article from CNN “A critical system of Atlantic Ocean currents could collapse as early as the 2030s, new research suggests ” August 3, 2024.
Edward, as climate threats go, AMOC has certainly been having its moment in the sun these past few years. “The Day After Tomorrow” has etched itself into the collective consciousness and what journalist can resist those mocked up images of a deep-frozen London? I know I get a kick out of them.
How much of a threat does it pose, at least in advance of other pending threats causing enough havoc to render it moot? How would a significant slowdown or even a shutdown play out against the backdrop of accelerating global warming? The jury is, as you say, still very much out.
Last night was the second recently of incredible lightning thunder and rain. Intense lightning for hours on end, non stop, like a strobe light. I could easily see how a person with ptsd, war related in particular, could be throne into a spiral. It was at once both an incredible performance and also ominous. The system had a lot of force (wind?) to it. The rain came down hard and at an angle.
I always appreciate these on the ground reports. Sounds scarey.