Enormous thanks to my anonymous donor for the remainder of April and May, who wishes to call attention to Rob Mielcarski’s thought-provoking un-denial site, also featured in my blogroll, which looks at overshoot and related issues.
“My over/under for the two year breaking 1.6°C is May 15th. Right now, the “under” is the slight favorite.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lmk25l7pxk2b
“Global CO2 emissions in 2024 increased 0.9% on the previous year totalling 36.3 Gt CO2.
“These ongoing emissions further deplete remaining carbon budgets, with some estimates suggesting the 1.5 °C budget will be surpassed within the next 5 years — and may have been already.“
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-025-00658-x
“Historically, NOAA updates their monthly GHG data on the 5th of each month. Last month, they didn’t publish an update until March 14th.
“This month? Just hoping for anything at all…”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lmk5vr5xz22q
“Trump seeks to end climate research at premier U.S. climate agency. White House aims to end NOAA’s research office; NASA also targeted…
“…the White House is ready to ask Congress to eliminate NOAA’s climate research centers and cut hundreds of federal and academic climate scientists who track and study human-driven global warming.”
https://www.science.org/content/article/trump-seeks-end-climate-research-premier-u-s-climate-agency
“Extreme terrestrial heat in 2024:
“2024 shattered temperature records, surpassing 2023’s historic highs to become the warmest year ever recorded. Extreme heatwaves hit West Africa in February, South America and Eastern Europe in March, Southeast Asia in April, and Mexico in June.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-025-00661-2
“2024 was one of the wettest years on record, witnessing record-breaking extreme precipitation events across the globe, several of which were compound events.
“Extreme rainfalls were unprecedented in arid regions and parts of the Global South, with severe monsoon rains and rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones causing severe casualties and economic losses.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-025-00666-x
“Weather whiplash: From 2 record highs to 2 record snowfalls [Alaska]…
“Anchorage saw another record snowfall dump on Thursday, with nearly 6 inches of new snow blanketing town. Thursday’s 5.7 inches of snowfall follows Monday’s record of about 5 inches and last week’s two record highs. Expect a slow return to springtime warmth into next week.”
“Major Fires in Siberia, Far East Mark Ominous Start to Russia’s 2025 Wildfire Season.
“At least 52 wildfires spanning more than 41,675 hectares were active across Russia on Thursday, the country’s Aerial Forest Protection Service reported. Authorities have already declared the start of the wildfire season across 64 regions of Russia…”
“War sparked Ukraine’s worst wildfire year in history.
“The spike was driven by more frequent heat waves, droughts, and windy weather, which Ukraine’s forest management and emergency response systems were not prepared to deal with [because of the conflict].”
https://wildfiretoday.com/2025/04/10/ukraine-worst-wildfire-year-russia-war-climate-change/
“Scottish fire chiefs issue ‘extreme’ wildfire warning…
“Firefighters worked through the night on Thursday to tackle a number of blazes across Scotland, including one at Glen Rosa on the Isle of Arran. In Lanarkshire, three fire engines remained at the scene of a wildfire that broke out on Thursday…”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/11/scottish-fire-chiefs-issue-extreme-wildfire-warning/
“Rain is on the way, but it’s too late to stop water shortages [UK]…
“…this winter was drier than normal for many parts of the UK, and was followed by a very dry March… Strangely, some of the worst water shortages are in Scotland, despite its reputation for wet weather.”
“Mer de Glace 1969 vs 2024 [French Alps. It’s worth clicking on the link to see the contrast].
“We are a world away from the 20th century climate, already in uncharted territories, and that’s just the beginning!”
https://x.com/subfossilguy/status/1910651986405433811
“Germany: Unusually dry spring affecting lakes and rivers.
“Weeks of extremely dry weather over Europe, combined with lack of snowmelt in the Alps are starting to have an impact. The water level of Lake Constance, Germany’s largest, is almost at the lowest it has been for 30 years…”
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-unusually-dry-spring-affecting-lakes-and-rivers/a-72185708
“The Drought-Stricken Romanian Villages Hung Out to Dry.
“In the arid north-east, the towns monopolise the running water while the villagers dig ever-deeper wells, in a race to the bottom that portends Europe’s hotter, drier future… “Our water is sold downstream while we can’t even take a shower,” grumbled Marius. “I clean myself in a plastic wash-basin.”
https://balkaninsight.com/2025/04/11/the-drought-stricken-romanian-villages-hung-out-to-dry/
“SOUTHERN AFRICA ENDLESS SUMMER:
“Record heat never ends in South Africa with temperatures still at 37/38C [100.4F] both East and West. Record heat again in Mozambique: after breaking the April record of the hottest day, the coastal town of Inhambane broke the record of the hottest night with a minimum temperature of 26.5C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1910270106904748429
“Tanzania battles floods as roads, farms damaged, people displaced…
“Already, some 300 homes have reportedly been submerged in the northern region of Kilimanjaro, leaving hundreds of families without shelter in the week. Kilimanjaro regional authorities said the floods caused significant damage to infrastructure…”
“Puntland urges urgent aid as deadly drought spurs water crisis and displacement [Somalia]…
““Communities are travelling long distances in search of water for human and livestock consumption,” the minister stated. “This increases the risk of displacement, waterborne diseases, and intercommunal tensions over shrinking resources.””
“RECORD after record after record…
“Diego Garcia US Base of the British Indian Ocean Territory, Chagos Islands (in process to return to Mauritius) had its HOTTEST APRIL DAY IN HISTORY with 36.1C [97F].”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1910694331188469827
“Another summer day in CENTRAL ASIA:
“36.4 in Turkmenistan, 34.9 in Uzbekistan and 33.2 in Kazakhstan. 11th day >30C [86F] in 11 April days in Central Asia (and at least 6 or 7 more to come). This is absolutely MENTAL.“
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1910724678739792165
“The Caspian Sea Is Drying Up: Endangered Seals, Vanishing Shorelines, and a Climate Crisis.
“As climate change drives down the water levels of the Caspian Sea, a staggering transformation is unfolding – ecosystems are vanishing, endangered species face extinction, and millions of people risk losing their livelihoods.”
“ASIAN HEAT WAVE. The insanity continues in this historic heat wave. Crazy minimum 33.0C [91.4F] Nandurbar INDIA.
“Hottest night in Asian history in the first half of April and monthly record for the station. Min 30.6 Phalodi also record.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1910312266920001736
“‘Felt like a 20-minute earthquake’: Delhi-NCR residents left shaken after sudden dust storm.
“A massive dust storm along with gusty winds and heavy rain hit several parts of Delhi-NCR on Friday, bringing traffic in many areas to a standstill and uprooting trees all over the national capital.”
“More than 100 people dead after heavy rains hit India and Nepal.
“India’s weather office expects more heavy rain until Monday and potentially deadly heat waves in April, as the monsoon is starting earlier than usual… At least 82 people have died in rain-related incidents in Bihar over the last two days…”
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/100-people-died-heavy-rain-hit-india-nepal-rcna200805
“Cloudburst Triggers Massive Landslide in Chamoli, Uttarakhand…
“A powerful cloudburst in the Nandprayag area of Chamoli district has unleashed widespread devastation, triggering a massive landslide and spreading panic among residents.”
“Chaos in China as cold vortex from Mongolia brings strongest April winds in decades.
“Strong winds caused havoc in Beijing and parts of northern China on Saturday, forcing hundreds of flights to be cancelled, attractions to close and rail lines to be suspended, state media said.”
“On April 12, Chongqing, located in the Sichuan Basin, encountered the strongest sandstorm in meteorological records…
“The sandstorm blew from Mongolia all the way to the Yangtze River and may even affect Hong Kong!” [Jim Yang]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/1910939478975467826
“Destructive storm tides are likely to increase 10 times in Bangladesh in response to climate change, warned a new study published in the journal One Earth.
“A storm tide is defined as high water level caused by the combination of a normal astronomical tide and a storm surge (abnormal rise in sea level due to a tropical cyclone or other intense storm).”
“I’ve seen Australia’s beloved gumtrees dying and it makes me wonder: if they can’t survive, how can we?
“Even the hardy eucalyptus are finding their limits as we experience more frequent bushfires, heatwaves and droughts… I feel like there’s a warning implanted deep in my subconscious from way, way back that says: if the trees can’t survive, neither can you.”
“Ballarat is in the grips of one of its driest periods of the past 125 years [Victoria, Australia].
“There’s no end in sight for Ballarat’s 14-month dry spell as dams, lakes evaporate.”
“OCEANIA RECORD HEAT:
“Never ending record heat in Oceania – at 33.5C [92.4F] Saratmata VANUATU breaks again its April record of highest temperature in history. Records are falling in all Continents, relentless, like no month before.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1910241342216712412
“Emergency in Santa Lucía and Machala due to heavy rains and flooding [Ecuador].
“The Santa Lucía canton in Guayas declared a state of emergency on Friday, April 11, after the Pula River overflowed its banks and the Daule River rose , flooding 45% of its territory. In neighborhoods like 3 de Abril, the water level rose suddenly, forcing residents to evacuate their homes on makeshift rafts.”
https://www.ecuavisa.com/noticias/ecuador/santa-lucia-machala-inundaciones-lluvias-HX9132810
“Cali [Colombia] hit again by a heavy downpour that caused flooding and rising waters…
“The heavy rains this Thursday in Cali, lasting 40 minutes , left several fallen trees, growing in communes 18 and 20, where flooded houses and swollen rivers were reported, such as El Pance, which registered a level of 1.15, for which the “Red Alert” was declared…”
“Climate change is taking a toll on Latin America’s mental health.
“Extreme weather and environmental change are generating long-term mental health challenges in the region, with experts highlighting an urgent need for more studies and intervention… Studies have shown that people who experience a natural disaster first-hand are likely to suffer acute impacts on their mental health.”
https://dialogue.earth/en/climate/climate-change-takes-its-toll-on-latin-americas-mental-health/
“‘Bad Omen’: Ancient Pyramid in Mexico Collapsed Into A Pile of Rubble…
“Extreme weather events and rising seas are putting precious heritage sites around the world in harm’s way… the 15-meter-high (roughly 50-foot-high) square monument located in the state of Michoacán suddenly slumped under the pressure of incessant rain, its south wall crumbling into a pile of rubble.”
https://www.sciencealert.com/bad-omen-ancient-pyramid-in-mexico-collapsed-into-a-pile-of-rubble
“Dozens of stations are at record levels for this time of the year [SW US]:
“For example Winslow AZ had by far its earliest 90F [32.2C] in history, 9 days earlier than the previous earliest 90F. Some stations like Nogales missed their full April monthly record by just 1F.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1910878428930113779
“‘Alarming’: Severe weather, tornado reports way up this year in US.
“More than 470 tornadoes have been reported across the United States so far this year, which is nearly double the historical average for the year to date…”
“World’s Biggest Shipping Emission Control Area Agreed [along the Atlantic coastlines – from Portugal, Spain, and France through the British Isles up to Iceland and Greenland]…
“Unfortunately, it will be still allowed to burn toxic heavy fuel oil, if the exhaust gases are washed out by so-called scrubbers, whose contaminated wash water is dumped in the ocean.”
https://maritime-executive.com/corporate/world-s-biggest-emission-control-area-agreed
“Psychoactive drug pollution makes fish less risk-averse…
“Surveys of the world’s rivers have found drug contamination in waterways on every continent on Earth — even Antarctica. Almost 1,000 different active pharmaceutical drugs have been detected in environments worldwide, harming biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and public health.”
https://www.dw.com/en/psychoactive-drug-pollution-makes-fish-less-risk-averse/a-72201626
“Pests are moving to cooler regions due to climate change…
“Climate change is pushing pest insects and mites into new territories. Many pests are migrating from the equator to cooler regions that used to keep them at bay. Global trade networks are also playing a big part in this shuffle.”
https://www.earth.com/news/pests-are-moving-to-cooler-regions-due-to-climate-change/
“Climate crisis could cause new mass extinction, says researcher…
“If humanity fails to reverse the impacts of climate change, Earth could face a mass extinction event comparable to that of the Permian Period (299 to 251 million years ago), when approximately 90 percent of species perished under extreme conditions.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
From Nature: “Global and regional drivers for exceptional climate extremes in 2023-2024: beyond the new normal” (in Thursday’s collection).
(A big) if I understand the paper it’s saying that El Nino in 2023/24 evolved differently from previous ones, which may have had something to do with a particular set up in the weather patterns in the southern ocean surrounding the Antarctic (or these two things may have just been coincidental).
Temporary local conditions changed how energy was absorbed/radiated and the overall big change was a significant increase in heat distribution into the top 100m of the oceans, and because the ocean surface and atmosphere are in close contact (therefore near thermal equilibrium) any accelerated build in temperatures in the surface will be matched in the 2m global average temperature.
This could mean that future El Ninos see similar steps up in temperatures with more normal warming during the neutral and La Nina years, or 2023/24 could have been a one off coincidence of various conditions. However the general up trend in the earth energy imbalance would tend to suggest this is likely to happen again (and probably worse for the next time).
From my own perspective this makes more sense than the aerosol argument. The net incoming heat is absorbed about 91% in deeper oceans 2% each by the atmosphere and near surface oceans and the rest by the cryosphere and land. A small change in the average vertical distribution of heat going into the deep oceans has a huge impact on atmospheric warming rate. This may be from changing currents, wind patterns eddies etc. but overall classed as increased stratification, for which there are growing lines of evidence. For example (as illustration only – I’m not saying this is what happened) if the amount to deep ocean drops to 87% most of the difference will initially stay in the atmosphere and near surface waters so about a 5% drop in vertical mixing would double the atmospheric warming. Such effects seem more likely to explain the big 2023/24 change than the much smaller effects on overall incoming radiation from aerosols – i.e. a 5% drop in cloud reflection would mean about the same increase in rate of atmospheric warming and probably wouldn’t have happened in one year but would have built up as the aerosols were decreased.
If this does turn out to be a repeating phenomenon then the next El Nino will get us to about two degrees and after two more it will likely be game over for industrial civilisation (depending on the periodicity and rate of “normal” warming in the intermediate years).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY
Thank you for your thoughts, George.
The problem with spending so much time keeping up to speed with the latest developments is that it necessarily makes me a jack of all trades and I can’t do these sorts of deep dives into single topics. What you are saying certainly sounds plausible to me. Re the aerosols theory, the Mediterranean is going to be an interesting test-case for that as of May 1st when these low-sulphur shipping regs come into force there.
RIP Bill Paxton, featured in your linked clip. In so far as one can tell from afar, he seemed like a good guy, as well as a terrific actor. Here he is talking about the notorious PCP-drugging incident on the set of “Titanic”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbHREBvkOx0
Not only a good actor but he always seemed to pick films that I was happy to pay to see, also he could have been an important director but he seemed to lose interest after the first one, Frailty, which I’d put down as an under appreciated gem. As unlikely as it may sound I once queued up for a take away behind him and, what I took to be, a group of film technicians and he seemed a very affable chap.
Anybody here in C&E land want to measure up against the British Empire’s one and only Hugh Montgomery?:
https://us.londonspeakerbureau.com/speaker-profile/hugh-montgomery/
C’mon, let’s see it: where is your CV? Think you are somebody compared to this extraterrestrial climate savior?
No, I didn’t think so. Hugh Montgomery has done everything and anything, a climate James Bond of epic disparate accomplishments that span every sector of modern life, and he’s here to find a “cure” rather than just treat “symptoms.”
Well then. Rest assured he’s here to put the puny likes of Skea to bed and find that one previously-untried approach that will solve all predicaments.
No more Lee Zeldin, no more RFK Jr., no more Dear Leader cabinet meetings, it’ll be “cure” time, at the last possible moment – COP30!
Martin, he is indeed irritatingly accomplished and high-flying. I wouldn’t want to spend too much time dwelling on the yawning chasm between his CV and my own, lest that old devil status anxiety rear its ugly head. 😆
He lost his teenage son in a tragic drowning accident a few years ago, so I guess we all have our crosses to bear.
That last detail is absolutely chilling.
Bond with a backstory. Still, climate.change is a pitiless subject for any of us, so CV’s, even ones as blank as mine, do not matter.
However, to pivot wildly, one figure’s CV that does matter greatly is Batman’s, and I was surprised to learn that Batman’s parents were killed by.muggers, and Batman was left to die after the murders in a well that was occupied by bats.
I guess real life can be worse than any superhero fiction.
I fear it can, Martin. 😬
For example Winslow AZ had by far its earliest 90F [32.2C] in history, 9 days earlier than the previous earliest 90F.
Well, I’m a-standin’ on a corner in Winslow, Arizona
Such a fine sight to see
It’s a girl, my Lord, in a flatbed Ford
Slowin’ down to take a look at me
Come on, baby, don’t say maybe
I gotta know if your sweet love is gonna save me
We may lose and we may win
Though we will never be here again
So open up, I’m climbin’ in
So take it easy
1972 The Eagles “Take It Easy” written by Jackson Browne and Glenn Frey
I remember this too well, just starting High School in 1972
Sad to read about Winslow, AZ now.but sadder
From the above article link…
If approved by Congress, the plan would represent a huge blow to efforts to understand climate change, says Craig McLean, OAR’s longtime director who retired in 2022. “It wouldn’t just gut it. It would shut it down.” Scientifically, he adds, obliterating OAR would send the United States back to the 1950s—all because the Trump administration doesn’t like the answers to scientific questions NOAA has been studying for a half-century, according to McLean.
And….Nixon administration debated global warming NBC News
https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna38070412
Global warming warnings were debated in President Nixon’s administration as early as 1969, according to newly released documents.
Moynihan wrote in a September 1969 memo that it was “pretty clearly agreed” that carbon dioxide content would rise 25 percent by 2000,
“This could increase the average temperature near the earth’s surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit,” he wrote. “This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter.”
“I would think this is a subject that the Administration ought to get involved with,” Moynihan wrote to John Ehrlichman
Ouch, they knew and know now….
Take it easy…no one cares about fifty year from now….yeah right
Vince, that is an interesting little window into history.
Our own Margaret Thatcher, who rose to power a few years later in 1979, was a somewhat improbable champion of climate science. She had a degree in chemistry from Oxford, so had some idea of what we were up against.
I met her very briefly when she presented me with my degree, as she was at that time affiliated with the university I attended. She was getting up there in years and smelt a little of whisky.
“Desperado” is my favourite Eagles track. Just perfect when I am feeling a little sorry for myself:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRNq53w1vjQ
Yep. History is indeed very “interesting” to say the least….I find it fascinating 😜 in which regardless of so called “knowing better”does it coincide with “doing better”. I did listen to the tape coversation of the Nixon tape (it is worth hearing) and I can only surmise the current dialogue regarding this crisis in the current Oval Office…oh, to be a fly on the wall…
Well, old folks and politicians have a short time line horizon and to combine both is a double whammie.
PS… Dave Forman co founder of EARTH FIRST! pointed out that all Presidents insisted that we must compromise in regards to the economy vs the environment. Lumber prices too high,we need to approve clear cutting of this section of public national Forest, ect.
So, there you have it folks😜. Don’t expect anything from our so called statesmen or politicians or business leaders
Off-topic, but I think I’ve identified a new facet of societal breakdown – millennial parents being mean to their kids and then posting about it on the internet like it’s funny and feeling very proud of themselves. Dropping literal babies head first on to a table to stop them crying, sending kids to bed hungry (while filming them with a smartphone to their face) because they said they didn’t like the food. And then posting those videos on the internet to make CPS’s job that much easier.
What’s more, other parents are actually admiring this and subscribing to their patreon so they can watch even more child abuse content. Apparently it isn’t abuse but discipline. And without it the kids will be spoiled and grow up to be losers and serial killers.
Now obviously the world was always chock full of bad parents (who thought they were great parents) but the boundless voyeurism of the internet combined with the “positivity” culture of social media has exposed all of that toxicity in the worst way imaginable. And, as usual, nothing really changes except for a few media spectacles about the worst offenders.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/20/ruby-franke-youtube-vlogger-prison-child-abuse
Jupiviv, parenting is tough at the best of times but now with the pressure that generation is under and the creeping sense of frustration and hopelessness a lot of them must feel, I guess it’s not surprising that they are lashing out at their own offspring. It’s like stressed animals “savaging”, as it’s known.
This article is from the end of 2023:
“Cases of adults neglecting, mistreating or assaulting children in England have doubled in five years, police figures show… the coronavirus pandemic and cost-of-living crisis had put struggling families under “increased strain”.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-67647388