My webmaster, Cassandra, lives in Western NC, not far from Asheville, and has been kind enough to write a first-hand account of her experience of storm Helene for Climate & Economy. I’ll be posting that overnight, so stay tuned.
A big thank you to October’s sponsor, Rusty Flanagan.
“What’s Causing the Recent Spike in Global Temperatures?
“…The recent temperature run-up could be the result of some development that’s yet to be identified. Or it could mean the climate system is more unpredictable than was thought. Alternatively, it could indicate that something is missing from climate models, or that amplifying feedbacks are kicking in sooner than the models had predicted.”
https://e360.yale.edu/features/gavin-schmidt-interview
“Catastrophically warm predictions are more plausible than previously thought, say climate scientists.
“”We show that the carbon sensitive models, the ones that predict much stronger heating than the most probable IPCC estimate, are plausible and should be taken seriously,” says Athanasios (Thanos) Nenes, EPFL professor of the Laboratory of Atmospheric Processes and their Impacts…”
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-catastrophically-plausible-previously-thought-climate.html
“This is only a forecast so far, but the highest temperature anomaly in 7 months doesn’t make the preceding 16 months look like a crazy (“El Niño driven”) natural anomaly.
“We’re entering a La Niña.”
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1844702598625952054
“Very warm nights in NE Europe again.
“Yesterday in LITHUANIA minimum of 14.4C [57.9F] at Dotnuva which equals the highest minimum ever recorded in October. Today again minimums locally >14C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1844755322243563561
“England has suffered its second worst harvest on record – with fears growing for next year – after heavy rain last winter hit production of key crops including wheat and oats.
“The cold, damp weather, stretching from last autumn through this spring and early summer, has hit …hard…”
“Storm Kirk, intensified by climate change, brings France record rainfall.
“Kirk’s passage increased the rainfall surplus of an already very wet year in the country. These phenomena have been amplified by the effects of climate change, particularly the warming of ocean waters.”
“Paris switches to heatwave-resilient power cables.
“To maintain the glow of the City of Light, Paris is modernising its underground electric cables which are vulnerable to damage during heatwaves – part of ongoing preparations for the expected day when temperatures reach 50C.”
https://www.thelocal.fr/20241011/paris-switches-to-heatwave-resilient-power-cables
“Historic drought persists in Spain.
“Most areas in southern and northeastern Spain are grappling with a historic drought now in its fourth year, despite recent storms… The southern part of the Iberian Peninsula is experiencing “the longest-lasting drought on record,” Ruben del Campo, spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency, said.”
https://english.news.cn/europe/20241011/e56fa3f418d14ac5a21ed56c81b99365/c.html
“Romanian authorities beef up preventative measures after devastating flooding…
“The devastation was so significant that hundreds of people are still working in the affected communities trying to clear away mud and refuse and help people to rebuild their homes so they can move back in before winter.”
“Ukraine’s vast forests devastated in hellscape of war.
“Both Russian and Ukrainian armies blast thousands of shells at each other every day, shredding the earth in grinding combat that echoes the trench warfare of World War I… All that remains of many forests in eastern Ukraine are fields of stripped, broken trunks.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/environment/2024/10/11/wildlife/ukraine-forests-decimated/
“Hellish heat and primal fear: Croatian firefighters on frontline of climate crisis.
“”The stress of the job has been compounded by the carbon pollution heating up Europe and drying out parts of it, increasing the fuel load on which fires thrive… “Climate change has affected every part of the job,” said Slavko Tucaković, Croatia’s chief firefighter.”
“How climate change is affecting the Mediterranean Sea,
“Every day, marine biologist Gerwin Gretschel observes how rapidly the Mediterranean Sea is changing. At his diving school, people learn about the dangerous marine effects of climate change.”
https://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change-is-affecting-the-mediterranean-sea/video-70426506
“Historic heat wave in the Mediterranean, with October records beaten in LIBYA: 43.4 [110.1F] Ghadames, MIN. 28.3 Sirte, 26.4 Nalut; TUNISIA: 40.9 Gabes…
“Record warm nights in SLOVENIA: Tmin 18 Novo Mesto,17.7 Celje, 17 Crnomelj.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1844447848542372307
“At least 177 people killed in Mali floods since start of rainy season…
“In response to the crisis, Malian authorities have repeatedly urged residents to evacuate flood-prone areas, clear blocked waterways, and avoid venturing into flooded roads, whether on foot, motorbike, or car.”
http://www.china.org.cn/world/Off_the_Wire/2024-10/12/content_117479145.htm
“About 1.9M impacted by floods in Chad as all 23 provinces hit.
“All of Chad’s 23 provinces have been impacted by intense floods brought on by severe rainfall. Over 550 people have died, and 210,000 homes have been washed away… This comes as the country declared a food security and nutrition emergency in February.”
“Two African countries say they need to kill elephants for food. Critics say it’s cruel and won’t work.
“Both governments said the culls would help alleviate the impacts of the region’s worst drought in 100 years.. But it’s triggered a fierce argument. Conservationists have criticized the cullings as cruel and short-termist, setting a dangerous precedent.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/12/climate/namibia-zimbabwe-animal-cull-elephants-drought/index.html
“Drought is parching the world’s largest man-made lake, stripping Zambia of its electricity.
“The water level is so low that only one of the six turbines on Zambia’s side of the dam is able to operate, cutting generation to less than 10% of normal output. Zambia relies on Kariba for more than 80% of its national electricity supply…”
“Heavy rains flood Mecca as thunderstorms hit holy city and surrounding regions.
“Heavy rains lashed Mecca on Thursday, bringing thunderstorms and torrents that swept through the holy city and surrounding areas… Civil Defense officials advised the public to avoid valleys and follow safety guidelines as torrents surged through the streets…”
“Kyrgyzstan has opened a criminal probe into the destruction of glacial ice by a private company, a rare move pointing to concerns over water shortages in the Central Asian country.
“…rising temperatures due to climate change and mining operations are putting Kyrgyzstan’s glaciers at risk.”
“Nepal floods deliver US$127 million blow to country’s economy amid climate challenges.
“Rajan Bajagain is faced with the heartbreaking sight of his home reduced to rubble, as the land where he once farmed is now submerged under a thick layer of muddy sludge… “Our world has ended,” Bajagain, 53, said. “I lost everything…””
“New virus uncovered in China – is this a sign tick-borne diseases are on the rise?
“…a patient bitten by a tick while visiting a wetland park in Inner Mongolia was admitted to hospital with symptoms of fever, headache and vomiting that progressed to multiple organ dysfunction… Tick activity is strongly affected by temperature and humidity…”
“Three weeks after record rains in Noto, damage to over 1,300 homes, number likely to rise [Japan].
“It has been three weeks since the record-breaking rains hit the Noto region of Ishikawa Prefecture on the 12th. According to the prefecture, damage to over 1,300 houses caused by the heavy rains has reached 12,000, and as some areas have not yet been surveyed…”
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20241012/k10014607851000.html
“Elderly man killed as floods, landslides hit Yala [Thailand]…
“Heavy rains in Betong and Than To districts caused flooding, landslides and road closures… The body of Koder Luebaji was discovered after he was swept away by the rapid waters, while six family members managed to escape and seek shelter with relatives.”
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2882546/flash-flooding-claims-one-life-in-yala-thailand
“Record heat never ends in THAILAND: Today Phliu (east coast) broke its record of the hottest October day again with 36.7C [98.1F].
“Not a single DAY since March 2023 has passed without record heat in Thailand.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1844714627218739521
“HISTORIC HEAT IN THE PHILIPPINES – MINIMUM 29.0 [84.2F] Cuyo HOTTEST OCTOBER NIGHT IN PHILIPPINES HISTORY again.
“INDONESIA also had its October hottest night: 28.7 Sangkapura (yesterday), 28.6 Jakarta Port and Kalianget, 27.2 Cilacap.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1844907825509826799
“Climate change drives rise in rainfall, ‘Christmas typhoons’ in Philippines…
“Faye Cruz, climate scientist… said …that one study tracked “Christmas typhoons,” named for their tendency to occur from December to February. The 2021 study found a 210% increase in Christmas typhoons nationwide since 2012. This trend is more pronounced in southern Philippines, which saw a 480% increase.”
“Wildfire in Sao Paulo’s reserve causes massive burns of animals [Brazil]…
“At the São Bento Mountain Recovery Center, one of the 26 centers in the region, staff have been overwhelmed by the influx of injured animals… Upon arrival, the animals are often in weak health, suffering from severe burns, dehydration, and malnutrition.”
“Bolivia’s Indigenous Communities Face Devastating Wildfires Once Again.
“Wildfires are again ravaging Bolivia, particularly in the Chiquitano dry forests of the eastern Santa Cruz department. Experts warn that this year’s fires could become the worst in the nation’s history…”
“Record wildfires ravage Peru’s ecosystems and wildlife.
“In northern Peru, spectacled bears fled burning dry forests to nearby towns where some were shot by frightened residents. Jaguars in the southern Amazon, with nowhere to flee, were left charred on trees. Grasslands and wetlands that play a key role in storing water were left in ashes.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/record-wildfires-ravage-perus-ecosystems-wildlife-2024-10-11/
“HISTORIC HEAT WAVE CARIBBEANS – nearly 100% of all countries broke their hottest nights records [any month]:
“Puerto Rico TMIN 83F/28.3C… 29.5 [85.1F] Cayman Islands; 29.2 Saba; 28.9 St Maarten; 28.9 US Virgin Islands (Charlotte Amalie AP), 28.3 Puerto Rico, Anguilla 28.6… All tropics are smashing every record which was set during the 2023 Nino.“
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1844850906606563823
“Hurricane Milton death toll rises to 17 with 1.8m still without power as flooding threat to last ‘weeks’…
“A phosphate mine operator warned that during the storm its facility dumped thousands of gallons of pollution into Tampa Bay as drains overflowed… Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) of NWS said, “River flooding is expected to last for days to weeks.””
“Just how doomed is home insurance? Hurricanes like Milton and Helene are making it harder than ever to insure your home…
“Hundreds of thousands of Americans have come home to a breakup letter from their private insurers, canceling their coverage. Others can’t find any company that will protect their home, leaving expensive, state-run insurers of last resort as their only option.”
https://www.vox.com/climate/377094/hurricane-milton-helene-home-insurance-flooding-damage
“Hurricane Helene: 11 from single North Carolina family dead as authorities keep finding bodies.
“The Craig family, which lives in an area known as “Craigtown” in Fairview, a suburb of Asheville, lost 11 members to a mudslide that happened “without warning by unprecedented rains” when the worst of Helene struck in the early morning hours of Sept. 27…”
“Record daily heat streak in Phoenix nearing 20 as another mark shattered Friday…
“Phoenix has broken daily heat records 16 times and tied two more since the streak began on Sept. 24. Prior to this streak, Phoenix had never had more than seven consecutive days of record heat.”
https://ktar.com/story/5614232/record-daily-heat-streak-in-phoenix/
“At least three government agencies will investigate the causes of wildfires that have burned more than 110,000 acres in North Dakota in the last week.
“State-led investigations into four wildfires in northwest North Dakota are in the early stages, but preliminary findings indicate there’s no evidence the fires were intentionally set…”
“Calgary just smashed an impressive warm weather record…
“… today the temperature finally fell to 0°C for the first time since May. Not only did we break the record for the longest streak of above-freezing temperatures, but Friday morning’s frost was one of the latest first frosts ever recorded.”
“This is a depressing one. My old base island Gallindez [Antarctica] appears to have melted in half.
“I skied across that everyday for 3 years, only 30 years ago. Part of that was an 80 metres icecap.”
https://x.com/leftywright44/status/1844768273763570130
“Global sea-ice extent continues its global f&%kery.
“It has set another daily record low, over 161,000 km² below last year’s record low for the same date.”
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1844718661015400770
“Three International Water Conflicts to Watch – China-India: The Brahmaputra River + Ethiopia-Egypt: the Nile River + Turkey-Iraq: the Tigris River…
“…one (upriver) state has a fundamental advantage over the other (downriver) state. All riparian states should cooperate to achieve the most sensible maintenance of their shared resources, but this is easier said than done.”
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/three-international-water-conflicts-watch/
“Climate emergencies threaten our collective security, but governments are flying blind into the storm…
“…cascading and compounding impacts not only threaten local communities, but add up to destabilise the security of entire countries and the globalised systems that connect them. Yet many governments do not routinely consider extreme climate scenarios in their security plans.”
“New survey of IPCC authors reveals doubt, and hope, that world will achieve climate targets…
“A small number of surveyed experts believe that staying below 2C is still likely, while others believed that we are on track for even more horrendous levels of climate warming at above 3C. Approximately 86 per cent of participants estimated warming of more than 2C…”
“How feeding cows red seaweed can help combat climate change.
“Feeding cows red seaweed, particularly Asparagopsis, can reduce their methane emissions and significantly lower the environmental impact of livestock farming. This solution could help combat climate change by decreasing one of the largest sources of agricultural greenhouse gases.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
Man, I don’t know how we are going to grow and feed the world’s population, not that we are already, without massive intolerable food price inflation. Dr. James Hanson predicted this in his book and looks to be coming now today.
Noticed lots of empty spaces in the produce section.
Justin has much here in his reports. Amazing I could add a few myself, it’s that severe.
Not much alarm yet by the public, it’s being played well by those pulling the strings
Obviously, the UK is a particular worry in this regard. We are going into winter facing higher fuel prices, thanks to the lifting of the energy price cap. The last thing we need is more food inflation, too. Farmers themselves are under such strain with more expensive inputs and the phasing out of EU subsidies on top of the relentlessly bad weather that they are starting to give up:
“Helen Browning, the chief executive of the Soil Association, said: “A lot of farmers are really considering their options, and thinking about walking away from their farms, as they could make far more money doing something else.””
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/09/uk-farmers-consider-quitting-after-extreme-wet-weather-and-low-profits
Hedge funds will buy them up – they are already doing this. They can put in tenants/managers or just re-wild. Latter is probably easier – get subsidies for it.
Will not improve our food shortage of course
I’m a bit gassy at times. 🫢
How do I get some of that red seaweed? I need to lower my methane fart-print. 😉
Perhaps, rather than trying to track down red seaweed, the thing to do would be to increase your cooling sulphur emissions with a diet heavy in broccoli and sprouts, Jpf.
Feeding cows oregano also lowers methane – oregano tea is yummy and extremely good for you
Cows : https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/feedings-cows-oregano-can-reduce-methane-and-help-fight-climate-change-a7039921.html
Humans: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21382660/
Relentless confirmation.
There is going to have to be a new word for the contradictory feelings held by those of us in the exclusive I-told-you-so club.
I, for one, was heralding the collapse to come from the supersystemic evidence back when that malevolent idiot Reagan was elected by the truculent rubes, and it’s just been one goddam piece of amplifying evidence on top of the mountain after another.
Nobody wanted to hear it, which was just fine. There are no prizes in the sky waiting to be claimed by us percipient prophets of doom. We used up our shares of fossil fuel and then some, as we do now. The shit’s that’s already toast has hit others, not us yet.
Now, though, the awareness is starting to seep in where hopium reigned before. Even the New Yorker’s climate whisperer Elizabeth Kolbert is noting possible AMOC collapse in a little over ten years in her latest.
Good folks are confessing to crying spells over one or more of the connected catastrophes. Others are indulging in accelerationist tough-guyisms. We are not a very good species in helping each other through traumas. Maybe we’ll learn a new way for those of us by sheer force of luck getting through the next rounds of global stupidity.
If Elizabeth Kolbert’s speculation here is correct then poor UK farmers (if any remain) may be looking back on this soggy era as halcyon:
“Were the AMOC to collapse… Places like Britain and Scandinavia would, perversely, grow much colder; according to one recent study, temperatures in London would drop by almost twenty degrees, which would give it a climate like present-day Siberia’s. Farming in much of northern Europe would become impossible.”
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/10/14/when-the-arctic-melts
Atmospheric rivers are shifting poleward, reshaping global weather patterns
Published: October 11, 2024 2:00pm EDT
Atmospheric rivers – those long, narrow bands of water vapor in the sky that bring heavy rain and storms to the U.S. West Coast and many other regions – are shifting toward higher latitudes, and that’s changing weather patterns around the world.
The shift is worsening droughts in some regions, intensifying flooding in others, and putting water resources that many communities rely on at risk. When atmospheric rivers reach far northward into the Arctic, they can also melt sea ice, affecting the global climate.
In a new study published in Science Advances, University of California, Santa Barbara, climate scientist Qinghua Ding and I show that atmospheric rivers have shifted about 6 to 10 degrees toward the two poles over the past four decades.
Atmospheric rivers on the move
https://theconversation.com/atmospheric-rivers-are-shifting-poleward-reshaping-global-weather-patterns-240673
Not only ocean currents but air currents too….too much all at once..hold on..
Riders on the Storm
Riders on the storm
Riders on the storm
Into this house, we’re born
Into this world, we’re thrown
Like a dog without a bone
An actor out on loan
Riders on the storm
The Doors…of course,
Following with another verse:
Killer on the road
His brain is squirming like a toad
Take a long holiday
Let your children play
But give this man a ride
And sweet family will die
Killer on the road
It’s a bit on the nose but “Bad Moon Rising” by Credence Clearwater Revival has been popping into my head recently:
“I hear hurricanes a-blowin’
I know the end is comin’ soon
I fear rivers over flowin’
I hear the voice of rage and ruin”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUQiUFZ5RDw
Altho they’re supposedly befuddled by the “recent rise in temperatures”, perhaps if they just looked at the NOAA website they’d get a clue:
CO2 in Sept. 2023: 418.5
CO2 in Sept 2024: 422
3.5 ppm increase in one year.
That increase was < 2.0/annum in the 90’s.
Einstein is quoted as saying that compound interest is the strongest force in the universe; CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere is an exact corollary: every year’s accumulation is added not only to the original amount in the “account”, but is added to the original value PLUS the accumulated interest. And we keep increasing the interest rate. So it’s not that “the climate system is more unpredictable than was thought”, it’s actually exactly as predictable as thought. It’s simply that the prognostications were made, are continued to be made, with inaccurate input data.
Thanks, Rob. There is still uncertainty over the climate’s level of sensitivity to CO2 but perhaps the equation really is as simple as you suggest.
https://abc7news.com/post/san-jose-sunpower-solar-panels-bankruptcy-cslb-accusation/15410343/
Just another day in scam nation
Thanks, Heather. I’m afraid the green gravy train is so temptingly bountiful that it will inevitably attract a criminal element:
“…as solar panels have flown off the shelves, the industry has developed a dark underbelly in which scammers and cowboy installers take eco-friendly households for a ride.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/net-zero/how-net-zero-fuelled-solar-panel-scam-spree/
Heather, I get frequent calls or knocks on the door promoting solar panels or random phone solicitors. I reject them all knowing full well of the downsize of these not being a solution at all to our predicament. There was a segment on the television about a financial disaster one family incurred when signing up for these to be placed on their roof. Never worked as they should and no savings..
I tell them the insurance company will frown on these as one more excuse to drop our policy…
“… is this a sign tick-borne diseases are on the rise?”
Wimpy ass ticks are nothing compared to 8 billion monkey minds that are sucking the life out of their only habitat. BREAKING! NOW! There is no Habitat 2.0. It’s interesting how denial is not immune to consequences. Hope everyone is happy with their decisions. I’m ecstatic about how much destruction this species has unleashed. A nuclear war would be like a cherry on top of this fubar.
In Australia, the warning is sounding out of an atrocious summer/cyclone season.
Though where I am in the southern highlands, we have had relatively cooler/damp summers for about 5 years now, but the forecast map isn’t looking too good even in the south!
Least my aircon is mostly solar powered for the daytime
… its the hot nights I can’t handle…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-12/australia-facing-one-of-hottest-summers-on-record-bom/104464014