Huge thanks to Kimpton Bradford for being my June sponsor. At his request, this thread is dedicated to his lifelong hero, Dr. David Suzuki, who recently celebrated his 90th birthday.
“Yes, 2026 is on Track to be the Hottest Year…
“Our projection was that the 2026 temperature …would pass the 2024 monthly temperature in midyear and then exceed 2024 monthly temperature in the remainder of the year by an amount large enough to make 2026 the hottest year, eclipsing the 2024 record.” [Prof Jim Hansen]
https://mailchi.mp/caa/yes-2026-is-on-track-to-be-the-hottest-year
“7 out of 10 models now predict a record-breaking El Niño this year.
“El Niño’s exact intensity will influence the magnitude of the global temperature spike and water vapor levels in 2026-27, both key indicators of the potential for weather extremes. Fractions of a degree matter.” [Ben Noll]
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2065076117950898381
“‘Fuel on the fire’: Scientists confirm El Nino’s return, predict extreme weather effects…
“…Ehsan’s team forecasts that this El Nino will peak a month or two earlier based on strong early signs from recent weeks. Princeton University climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi said large El Ninos like these also tend to last longer.”
“Earth’s permafrost could soon release hidden ‘deep carbon,’ supercharging warming… scientists may have underestimated just how bad the situation may be, a new analysis finds…
““Deep permafrost has been an under-appreciated component of Earth system models, so it’s great to see more explicit treatment of this important [carbon] reservoir in model simulations,” says Alberto Reyes…”
“Alaska’s glaciers have a startling response to rising temperatures.
“…researchers found that every 1°C (1.8°F) increase in average summer temperature extends glacier melting by about three weeks. The study also revealed that intense heat waves can strip away up to 28% more protective snow cover, exposing ice much earlier than normal and accelerating ice loss.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/06/260612032047.htm
“Remarkable warmth in Greenland.
“Very mild temperatures near 20C these days in Greenland. Particularly exceptional the 18.7C [65.7F] Qaarsut AP at 70N latitude,which tied its record of the highest temperature ever recorded in June. And the warmth will continue next days.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2065533360026321378
“We are seeing a near-record early melt-out of sea ice in the Barents Sea region of the Arctic this summer.
“This is at least partially in response to the anomalous warmth there the last several months.” [Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3mnzofvs4ys2j
“Fierce heat also in The Arctics from Scandinavia to Russia.
“Temperatures have rose >30C [86F] above the Arctic Circle for several consecutive days in Russia and it’s expected to get even hotter next two days, at record level for this time of the year.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2065036859885998330
“Bird flu, extreme heat and super gonorrhoea: The top health threats facing Britain…
“It said that although a pandemic flu or novel coronaviruses could have “catastrophic” impacts, the most likely events are increased tuberculosis cases linked to migration, extreme heatwaves, and rising rates of tick-borne encephalitis.”
“Red algae washes up on Brittany beaches as clean-up begins.
“Large quantities of red algae have washed up on beaches in Brittany far earlier than usual this year, a phenomenon local officials say is linked to rising temperatures and warmer spring weather.”
“France prepares for another ‘very intense and widespread’ heat event, possibly over 40°C [104F].
“It comes less than two weeks after the May heat wave, which was the most severe, longest, and most widespread ever recorded so early in the year. This is the second surge in temperatures before the official start of summer.”
“Europe faces a hidden heatwave risk that could shatter records.
“After 2003, Europe rebuilt how it handles extreme heat. Every new protocol and warning system carried the same assumption – one devastating wave, then time to recover. The real danger may be back-to-back heatwaves… Why the worst heat bunches this way isn’t settled.”
https://www.earth.com/news/a-hidden-heatwave-risk-could-push-europe-beyond-its-records/
“German vines flower early in warm regions, pushing some harvests toward August…
“For the wine trade, an earlier flowering calendar can shape expectations well before harvest begins. If development continues at this pace, wineries and buyers may need to prepare for an earlier grape intake and a compressed production schedule in some areas.”
“Drought continues in Switzerland despite rain.
“Despite the recent rainfall, the spectre of drought continues to hang over Switzerland. Water levels in many rivers and lakes on the Swiss Plateau have reached record lows… “The rainfall has been merely ‘a drop in the ocean’,” says hydrologist Manuela Brunner…”
“Climate crisis hits Hungary: country’s third-largest lake nears historic low.
“The water level of Hungary’s third-largest lake is expected to fall to a new record low this summer due to climate change and decades of poor water management, threatening both the ecosystem and the local tourism industry.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/environment/article/rjc9ud9bml
“Severe thunderstorms damage more than 150 buildings in Slovenia before spreading into Croatia.
“Severe thunderstorms damaged more than 150 buildings in Slovenia on June 10, 2026, before the same weather system moved into northern Croatia overnight into June 11, bringing damaging wind, hail, and heavy rainfall.”
“Hailstones damage crops in central Greece.
“Farmers in central Greece are assessing significant crop damage after a severe storm swept through the region on Friday afternoon, bringing hail and strong winds, local media reported… Further west, additional agricultural damage was reported due to hail and strong winds.”
https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1306548/hailstones-damage-crops-in-central-greece/
“A record high in Mediterranean sea temperatures and significant consequences for the region’s weather.
“It is likely that the Mediterranean will witness a further rise to reach historical levels that may exceed 30 degrees Celsius [86F], in light of the dominance of hot air masses during the summer season, especially the expansion of hot air from the African continent towards the European continent.”
“Pilot whales can’t hear each other over ship noise in Strait of Gibraltar, study finds.
“The rumble of ship traffic is drowning out the calls of long-finned pilot whales and potentially other marine species in the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow strip of water between Morocco and Spain that separates the Atlantic Ocean from the Mediterranean Sea.”
“RECORD HEAT IN CENTRAL AFRICA.
“Central African Republic’s capital Bangui rose to 36.6C [97.9F] on Friday, tying its record of June highest Temperature in history. [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2065587840969318650
“Sandstorm sweeps through Birnin Kebbi. [NW Nigeria]
“Residents of Birnin Kebbi, the capital of Kebbi State, experienced a severe sandstorm on Thursday as strong winds carried large amounts of dust across the city, reducing visibility and disrupting normal activities.”
https://guardian.ng/news/nigeria/metro/sandstorm-sweeps-through-birnin-kebbi/
“How climate change is threatening Kenya’s food basket as hunger crisis deepens – study…
“According to the State of the Climate Report 2025, erratic rainfall, prolonged dry spells and rising temperatures are steadily undermining farm productivity, leaving households with shrinking food reserves and increasing uncertainty.”
“Central Asia’s Dry Fuse: Preventing The Next Water War?
“The rivers of Central Asia may cause a crisis in the region. There are two important rivers in the five “stans” (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan), the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya. Still, there is no comprehensive agreement on water sharing between the countries.“
https://caspianpost.com/central-asia/central-asia-s-dry-fuse-preventing-the-next-water-war-oped
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN WEST ASIA – 51 DEGREES:
“Historic heat wave between Pakistan, Iran and Oman: weeks of relentless heat. 51.0C Nawabshah PAKISTAN -June record tied (but below the May record). 5 stations with 50C+ [122F]. [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2065143284628955250
“Pakistan experiences back-to-back ‘warmest years’…
“These phenomena are accelerating glacial melt and altering monsoon dynamics, creating pronounced rainfall variability. Fewer rainy days with higher intensity have shifted monsoon patterns to the south, changing flood risks.”
https://www.dawn.com/news/2007224
“Pakistan says blocking Indus waters would have ‘serious consequences’ and could be considered an ‘act of war’ under the UN Charter…
“Water Minister CR Patil says India, under PM Modi’s directives, is working to ensure ‘not a single drop’ reaches Pakistan. India suspended participation in the Indus Waters Treaty after a 2025 terror attack in Kashmir, escalating tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours.”
“Scientists concerned as Himalayas show signs of climate breakdown…
“Scientists warn that the crisis is not confined to the mountains alone. Himalayan glaciers feed several major Asian rivers and support millions of people downstream. Any disruption in this fragile system could have serious consequences for water security…”
“Massive forest fires affect multiple areas of Rajouri amid heatwave [Himalayan foothills].
“Massive forest fires broke out on Wednesday across various locations in Rajouri district, Jammu and Kashmir, officials reported. The fires have spread through several forest ranges, with the prevailing heatwave and prolonged dry spell being attributed as the main causes.”
https://thenewsmill.com/2026/06/massive-forest-fires-affect-multiple-areas-of-rajouri-amid-heatwave/
“Rajasthan’s rains are rewriting desert records, with 154% excess rainfall by June 10 [NW India].
“Eastern Rajasthan received 207% excess rainfall, with the state recording 19.1 mm of rain between June 1 and June 9 against the normal 7.5 mm. Four of Rajasthan’s 10 wettest monsoon seasons have occurred since 2019, indicating a rise in extreme rainfall years.”
“Extreme Heat Is Already Stifling Economic Growth in India…
“AKI Chief Executive Officer Asad K. Iraqi has his 100 workers drink oral rehydration salts solution twice a day, and he recently invested in additional cooling systems. But it’s not enough. Some workers are falling sick, while others are returning to their villages.”
“Fierce heat in INDIA:
“Historic hot night at Mumbai. The Minimum of 30.2C [86.4F] is the highest ever recorded in June. Same value and same record for Harnai. Next days those records can be broken over and over again. Unprecedented.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2065355900911546643
“Mumbai Lake Levels Drop Amid Delayed Rain, Ex-IMD Scientist Warns ‘Tough Times Ahead’.
“…a former IMD scientist has called for urgent, aggressive water conservation strategies. The warning comes as water levels in the city’s seven critical reservoir lakes have dropped to a precarious 12.49 per cent of their total capacity.”
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN CHINA 47 DEGREES.
“Temperatures rose as much as 47.4C [117.3F] in Xinjiang today. And this is just the beginning of an extraordinary heat wave in all Central Asia and Northern China. It will just get hotter.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2065462220310376459
“A severe rain and hailstorm has caused chaos in Saitama Prefecture, Japan.
“Large hailstones falling at speeds exceeding 100 kilometers per hour highlighted the dangers of severe weather after unstable conditions brought heavy rain and hail to parts of eastern and northern Japan on June 12th, with experts warning that hailstorms can now occur at any time of year…”
“Record heat never ends in SE Asia.
“Today Baler, PHILIPPINES had its hottest June night in history with a Minimum of 27.5C [81.5F]. Records have been falling in the area since early 2023, every single day.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2065069359077216269
“Parts of Australia on track for warmest start to winter on record amid influx of tropical air.
“An influx of humid, tropical air has resulted in a remarkably warm and relatively wet start to winter across Australia. And with abnormally high temperatures forecast to continue, many regions are on track for the warmest start to winter on record.”
“EXTRAORDINARY WINTER WARMTH IN AUSTRALIA. Weeks of record warmth broken every day.
“Latest records – HIGH MAX: 22.0 [71.6F] Yarram, 20.8 Pound Creek, 20.4 Geelong, 18.0 Swan I., HIGH MINS: 15.9 Tarcoola, 15.7 Gosford, 14.7 Penrith, 14.2 Cummins, 14.0 Lake Cargelligo.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2065331608807158104
“Invasive caulerpa seaweed discovered in Whangārei Harbour for first time [NZ]…
“Caulerpa, which spreads and smothers other marine life, was first found in New Zealand at Great Barrier Island in 2021, where it now covers an area equivalent to more than 1100 rugby fields. It was confirmed in Northland for the first time in the Bay of Islands in May 2023.”
“Antarctica’s west coast missing an area of sea ice the size of France as temperatures peak 20C [36F] above average…
“One expert said the loss of ice in the Bellingshausen Sea was “depressing” and the failure of ice to form could have intensified a heatwave over the continent’s peninsula last week that saw daytime temperatures peak at 15.4C which is more than 20C above average.”
“Region Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperatures are in record territory, approaching 3 standard deviations above the 1982-2011 mean, an anomaly that has never happened before in recorded history.
“The Climate 8-ball says: “four!”” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2065451721456017411
“Crocodiles in the sea of Piura: the shocking discovery due to an ocean that boils at 7 °C more [coastal Peru].
“…climatologist Ben Noll said that the exceptionally warm waters associated with the coastal El Niño phenomenon would be allowing crocodiles to expand their distribution southward from areas near the border with Ecuador.”
“Amazon deforestation is falling, but progress is stalling.
“…the lower house of the Brazilian Congress has recently passed a bill restricting the adoption of precautionary measures by environmental agencies, including injunctions based on remote monitoring.”
https://theconversation.com/amazon-deforestation-is-falling-but-progress-is-stalling-284803
“Godzilla El Nino is so powerful it could set the Amazon rainforest on fire.
“In South America, El Nino typically brings less rainfall during the wet season. This makes the following dry season even harsher, turning forests more vulnerable to fires. The Amazon’s trees are not naturally adapted to frequent burning, so fires can spread quickly and cause lasting damage.”
“A look at the recent sea surface temperature trend (annual mean) for the Gulf of Mexico.
“While there are many environmental factors that impact hurricane intensity, this warming certainly can play a role in fueling more rapid intensification.”
[Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3mo553b4tq22i
“Severe Weather Preparedness Urged As Rio Grande Valley Braces For Rain.
“Remnants of a tropical disturbance combined with deep tropical moisture from the Central American Gyre are moving northwestward directly along the river channel. : Atmosphere moisture is tracking unusually high, threatening 3 to 5 inches of sudden rainfall.”
https://foxrgv.tv/severe-weather-preparedness-urged-as-rio-grande-valley-braces-for-rain/
“There were two huge wildfires in South Georgia this spring. Just fighting them cost $35M…
“”Between us and Florida this past year, we’ve done more tanker drops in about two weeks than we did in all the other years combined in the histories of our states,” Sabo said… He said the commission’s annual budget was $52 million dollars. “
“EXCEPTIONAL WARM NIGHT:
“Several records of June warmest night were broken or tied In Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and Arkansas like 80 Medicine Lodge KS, 80 Jonesboro AK, 78 Whiteman MO etc.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2065107958749347875
“Tornadoes rip through central US while extreme heat and humidity creep into north-east.
“An Illinois man whose home was destroyed by a tornado on Thursday was pulled from the rubble by a police officer and a photojournalist, who captured the terrifying storm and subsequent rescue in dramatic video footage.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/12/tornadoes-midwest-us-extreme-heat-north-east
“Hoover Dam Approaches a Hydropower Cliff.
“After record-low winter runoff into already-depleted reservoirs, water managers now know that the day of reckoning is coming soon. “We’re going to go to 1,035,” Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources, said at a meeting in mid-May. “There’s no question that’s going to happen.””
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12062026/hoover-dam-approaches-a-hydropower-cliff/
“Arizona faces 77% cut in Colorado River water amid stalled talks…
“A lack of agreement between the Upper and Lower Basin states would mean the federal government imposes its own plan for reallocating the water over the next 10 years – a plan that could mean cuts up to 77% for Arizona.”
“Toxic algal blooms linked to deaths of recently stranded humpback whales…
“These strandings coincide with reports of historically high concentrations of domoic acid-producing algae along the central California coast, which researchers note is causing broad impacts on regional marine wildlife.”
https://news.ucsc.edu/2026/06/dead-whales-domoic-acid/
“El Niño is back, and ocean temperatures are already near record highs – that can spell disaster for fish and corals.
“Along the U.S. West Coast during El Niño, surface winds that normally blow from the north tend to subside. This weakens evaporation and slows upwelling of colder, deeper water. That increases the chances of coastal marine heat waves. California waters are already extremely warm. El Niño could make things even hotter for longer.”
“Nearly 9 million litres of sewage dumped into Winnipeg’s waterways after storm-related power outages…
“The city said the storm also caused combined sewer overflows alongside the power outages, leading to more spills. A total of 8,700,000 litres of diluted sewage was spilled from Tuesday to Wednesday, the city said.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/sewage-wastewater-winnipeg-storm-9.7234114
“Storm damage being assessed in Regina [Saskatchewan] after hailstorm.
“Following a hailstorm in Regina this week, several areas experienced damage, with insurance claims continuing to mount… The conservatory at Regina’s Government House is closed for the foreseeable future thanks to the hailstorm.”
“The insurance market prepared for extreme weather. It may not be prepared for climate whiplash.
“For decades, catastrophe underwriting has largely revolved around probability… Climate whiplash introduces a different challenge. The issue is no longer simply frequency, but velocity: how rapidly conditions move from one extreme to another and whether existing coverages are designed to respond.”
“Extreme Weather Is Becoming A Workforce Crisis.
“For too long, extreme weather has been framed as an environmental issue… The damage accumulating inside the workforce – missed work hours, lower productivity, rising healthcare costs, staffing instability, and growing safety risks – is easier to miss but no less real.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billfrist/2026/06/12/extreme-weather-is-becoming-a-workforce-crisis/
“Climate change is redistributing sunlight across the planet.
“There is a hint that the change is not waiting for 2080. Climate satellites have recorded a similar pattern in surface sunlight over the past two decades – real measurements, not simulations… Sunlight is the largest single energy source for Earth’s surface, so redistributing it touches everything built on top.”
https://www.earth.com/news/climate-change-is-redistributing-sunlight-across-the-planet/
“Humans nearly went extinct 930,000 years ago, researchers find…
“The bottleneck falls within the Early to Middle Pleistocene transition, a period when glacial cycles changed from shorter swings to longer and harsher intervals. The paper links the population collapse to those climatic shifts.”
https://www.thebrighterside.news/post/humans-nearly-went-extinct-930000-years-ago-researchers-find/
“Hug a climate scientist today! Just don’t make it weird, they are already dealing with enough…
“Today we show our love and gratitude to the brave boffins at the coal face of existential dread… Climate scientists definitely deserve all the appreciation they can get right now. Dealing with complex environmental data and communicating urgent reality to the world is an incredibly heavy emotional and professional load.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
Turn it up higher!!
Another sign we are rapidly leaving the Holocene – previous El Nino predictions in spring have over estimated its strength and probability, this year the actual numbers are so far exceeding most models.
Things might be turning back in favour of loss of Barents ice as a tipping point – long range forecasts are showing large Arctic temperature anomalies (e’g. plus 8 to 10 for much of December and still plus 5 in March).
No El Nino’s are the same but one thing that is pretty certain they mean dry and hot conditions for Indonesia, Philippines and SE Asia where things are already looking extreme for both criteria.
The individuals that made it through that bottleneck likely had greater DNA diversity than throughout all the human population now except in Africa. Another bottleneck in the near future would be prone to a lot of genetic issues.
George, that had never occurred to me re the likely lack of genetic diversity in a post-bottleneck population.
I’ve tended to shy away from thinking too much about humanity’s mid-term future because it looks so very bleak. Also, when I did ponder it, I could feel myself coming around to the view that we weren’t going to make it all, and I didn’t want that to crystallize into a solid belief. I’m happier being uncertain there.
Yesterday I picked up Marshall Berman’s 1982 classic All That Is Solid Melts Into Air once again. His famous observation—that modernity is a permanent process of destruction and renewal—suddenly felt strangely dated. Berman was still writing in an era in which every collapse contained the promise of progress. The old world disappeared so that a new one could emerge.
That optimism seems to have vanished.
When I look at the daily stream of climate news—heatwaves across France, record temperatures in Antarctica, prolonged droughts, devastating wildfires, the approach of another El Niño, and a steadily increasing imbalance in the Earth’s energy system—what strikes me most is not the facts themselves but the change in tone.
Until recently, almost every article ended with the same message: we must act now, we can still turn this around.
Now a different atmosphere prevails. The facts continue to accumulate, records fall one after another, graphs keep climbing, yet the call to action quietly fades into the background. It is as if everyone implicitly understands that the old world is not coming back, while no one possesses a convincing vision of the new one.
It reminds me of an old Dutch saying: when you are being shorn, the best thing you can do is sit still.
We seem to be entering a peculiar transitional phase. There is no longer outright denial, but neither is there genuine mobilization. There is little optimism, yet surprisingly little panic. Instead, a quiet form of collective resignation appears to be taking hold.
This shift is visible far beyond the climate debate. Discussions about energy, biodiversity, migration and even war are gradually moving away from prevention toward adaptation, from transition toward resilience, from grand visions of the future toward day-to-day crisis management.
Perhaps this is the real Zeitgeist of 2026.
Not the conviction that everything will somehow get better, but the growing awareness that profound transformations are already underway and that no one really knows where history is heading.
In that sense, we may be living in a post-Berman world. Everything is still melting—perhaps faster than ever—but the confidence that a better form will naturally emerge has disappeared. And that makes the silence in our public discourse more revealing than the words themselves.
I noticed that too. I think a lot of this “passiveness” is being orchestrated by the “evil oligarchy” having recognized they can no longer hide the effects of their doings, and are now conspiring to keep the activists quiet and out of their way. Their greatest fear I believe is an angry crowd carrying torches and pitchforks.
“It reminds me of an old Dutch saying: when you are being shorn, the best thing you can do is sit still.”
Zip, love it. 😂
I’m still noticing calls to action but there is definitely a shift in the overall discourse, with terms like “permacrisis” and “polycrisis” trying to encapsulate the new reality.
Here in the UK, there is a general sense that we are a sinking ship – politically polarised, drowning in debt etc – but of course the assumption is that there are still other nations with brighter futures.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/jobs-uk-graduates-university-students-b2991295.html
Even though I’ve not seen any overt admission, the Hormuz issues must have opened some techno-optimists’ eyes to the impossibility of maintaining anything like agro based IC BAU without fossil fuels. There hasn’t been a sudden bump in interest in renewables, in fact the economic damages, if they are bad enough, are just going to stop all kinds of investments except for defence, no matter what; where do they think sulphur, helium and fertilisers will be coming from – there are not any remotely scalable technologies that could provide them at a cost that would be useable; and the global, feel good, nurturing mother type governance needed as a basis for all their master plans is obviously going in the opposite direction, towards fracturing, isolation and violence.
The techno optimist crowd is a bit rudderless these days. The 2010’s techno optimists have become VC-backed accelerationists. Mainstream discourse has shifted away from starry-eyed Utopianism.
If anyone wants to be a trillionaire, just perform Nazi salutes on TV/video.
Sieg Heil! You broke losers. 😉
I wonder who Nick G and the rest of the cornucopians at POB are latching onto these days?
It must be embarrassing to have spent years shilling for Musk only to have him to be revealed as a Nazi.
I found some lovely Italian coffee on sale. Is vacuum packed very well in Mylar and is best before early 2028. I grabbed about 2 years worth. I don’t mind the risk of supermarket shelves being bare and also having to maybe duck a few punches here and there, but if I don’t get some coffee in the AM I’m gonna suffer.
Wildfire looks to be a stable job for the future, at least until the employer stops paying.