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“Breaking News! Sea-surface temperature records are being shattered daily, and yet this El Nino is just getting started…” [Prof Eliot Jacobson; graph is his]
“Last month was statistically tied for the warmest May global average sea surface temperature on record…” [Zack Labe]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2062914954928496705
“This is utterly insane – the June update of ENSO anomaly forecasts in the 3.4 sector from this morning’s European model surpasses the already wild forecast from last May.
“An El Niño of unprecedented magnitude could occur by autumn, with no historical precedent for such intensity. We literally have no idea what to expect in terms of global consequences.” [Météovillages]
https://x.com/meteovillages/status/2062925617478222304
“Warming seas put pressure on North Sea fish populations.
“Rising ocean temperatures are reshaping marine life in the North Sea, one of the fastest-warming sea regions on the planet. Combined with decades of intensive fishing activity, these changes are driving cold-water fish species toward northern habitats and deeper waters.”
https://environmentjournal.online/headlines/warming-seas-put-pressure-on-north-sea-fish-populations/
“More heatwaves to come for a Britain getting warmer.
“The UK is facing an increased risk of heatwaves and a hotter-than-average summer following a record-breaking spring that has cemented Britain’s long-term warming trend… Data demonstrates that extreme heat is no longer an anomaly in the UK. Over the last decade, the number of days exceeding 30°C has more than trebled…”
“Ireland’s ‘downright alarming’ record-breaking heat in May due to climate change, scientists find…
““To get a 2 degree-plus jump in record maximum temperatures in any month is remarkable and shows that we are now starting to push the boundaries ever wider compared to what we previously considered possible,” he said.”
““Shocking temperatures”: scientists stunned as the sea heats up way too soon [off western France]…
“According to Thibault Guinaldo, a researcher at Météo-France and a specialist in marine heatwaves, sea surface temperatures have climbed by a staggering 6.9°C (that’s about 12.4°F) in a single week in some spots. Let’s just say, the Atlantic isn’t exactly easing into summer this year.”
“Tornado, hail and storms: the weather in Germany.
“A tornado swept over the North Rhine-Westphalian town of Gronau on Thursday. The tornado, classified as IF1, produced wind speeds of up to 150 kilometres per hour.”
https://www.euronews.com/2026/06/05/tornado-hail-and-storms-the-weather-in-germany
“‘A hard night’: Storms and torrential rains wreak havoc across southern Poland.
“Torrential downpours, violent storms and fierce winds tore through much of Poland on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, flooding homes, blocking roads and inundating emergency services.”
https://tvpworld.com/93638992/severe-storms-flooding-batter-southern-poland
“Drought Conditions Worsen as Rain Deficit Threatens Harvests [Hungary].
“Cereal crops and rapeseed in the arable fields are currently in the grain-filling stage, while summer row crops are in their active growth phase and in urgent need of rainfall. However, only scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected…”
https://hungarytoday.hu/drought-conditions-worsen-as-rain-deficit-threatens-harvests/
“Drones join fight against summer wildfires near Turkish border [Bulgaria].
“Yambol region, which borders Turkey and is home to nearly 110,000 people, declared states of emergency four times in 2025 because of major wildfires that threatened forests and nearby settlements.”
https://bnrnews.bg/en/post/485441/drones-join-fight-against-summer-wildfires-near-turkish-border
“African heat wave expected to bring record temperatures to Türkiye…
“Güven Özdemir, a meteorology expert and faculty member at Aydın University, said temperatures are expected to rise further in August, with the possibility of record highs in July and August.”
“Desert locusts threaten Errachidia oases and date harvest [Morocco].
“Just as farmers in Errachidia province were counting on a stronger agricultural season after years of drought, the return of the desert locust has raised new concerns. Swarms have been reported in several oases and farming areas.”
https://en.yabiladi.com/articles/details/195932/desert-locusts-threaten-errachidia-oases.html
“NORTH AFRICA HEAT WAVE. Fierce heat spreads from Sahel in Central Africa to Sahara North Africa with widespread 45C [113F]+ and night Minimums >30C.
“After the records in NIGER, today one hot night record was tied in MALI: min 31.5C Kenieba – Highest Minimum in June.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2062637680882491685
“At least 49 people die of thirst after truck breakdown in Niger desert…
“Two people, however, managed to survive after walking more than 50km (31 miles) on foot to a water source and then onwards to Assamaka, where they managed to alert the authorities, the governorate said.”
“A disease of deforestation: how Ebola is linked to the smartphone in your pocket…
“The bats don’t just vanish when their trees are gone. They squeeze into the fragments of forest that remain, in closer proximity to humans, increasing the likelihood of encounters in which humans are exposed to their viral-laden blood, saliva and excreta.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/05/ebola-mineral-mining-smartphones-congo
“Hungry elephants displaced by the climate crisis clash with farmers for food in Zambia: ‘They ate the maize the whole night’.
“As in other African countries, extreme weather is displacing mammals from their migratory routes; they trample farmland in search of water and food, leaving hundreds of families without a livelihood.”
“SCORCHING HOT WINTER DAY IN SOUTHERN AFRICA:
“Record after record continues in the area. Today up to 35.2C in Mozambique and also record hot night: min 23.5 [74.3F] Inhambane Hottest winter night on record. June Record heat also in the FRENCH SOUTHERN TERRITORIES – Max. 30.1 Tromelin Island.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2062965571570774254
“Whale strike risk rises as international shipping reroutes around South Africa…
“Due to the Houthi rebels attacks on ships traversing the Red Sea, which started in 2023, and the more recent fallout from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, many cargo companies have rerouted their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.”
“MIDDLE EAST HEAT WAVE – after the 50C day, the 37C+ [98.6F] at night.
“Terrible Minimum Temperatures tonight: 37.4 Doha AP QATAR, 36.7 Dayyer IRAN. Max. Temperatures again up to 50C in OMAN.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2062587635260887065
“Maritime minister urges urgent action on Arabian Sea heat crisis.
“Says sustained sea temperatures in the Arabian Sea have exceeded the 90th percentile across over 30% of the region… Scientists describe the event as an unprecedented marine heatwave that is already intensifying climate risks along Pakistan’s coast and altering forthcoming monsoon behaviour,” the minister said.”
https://www.brecorder.com/news/amp/40424122
“JI takes to streets over Karachi’s worsening water crisis.
“The Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) on Friday staged protest demonstrations at different locations over the deepening water crisis in the city and warned that the party would expand its movement using all democratic options, including sit-ins and a strike, if the issue was not resolved.”
https://www.dawn.com/news/amp/2005521
“More Than Half Of Afghans Affected By Drought, Says UNAMA…
“The report said that a sharp decline in rainfall and excessive groundwater extraction in southern provinces, including Kandahar, Helmand, Nimroz, Zabul and Uruzgan, have pushed traditional irrigation systems to the brink of collapse…”
https://www.afintl.com/en/202606053300
“Water wars washing away South Asia’s fragile peace.
“…this is not merely an India-Pakistan issue and conflict. Bangladesh shares 54 rivers with India. And the 1996 Ganga Water Sharing Treaty — governing dry-season flow allocations at the Farakka Barrage — expires in December this year. India has indicated that it will not renew the treaty in its current form…”
https://asiatimes.com/2026/06/water-wars-washing-away-south-asias-fragile-peace/
“Biomass Burning Drove Expansion of Pollution Hotspots Across Eastern India, Himalayas: 25-Year Study.
“…even more concerning than the pollution itself is the cause – biomass burning, says the study, had risen in eastern and northeastern India. Pollution from burning materials like crop waste and wood was also increasingly common…”
“Extreme heat disrupts life across Madhes [Nepal]…
“Ramesh Gupta, a businessman in Gaushala, said number of customers have fallen sharply during the daytime due to the heat. Most shoppers now prefer to visit markets only in the evening when temperatures become slightly more bearable.”
https://risingnepaldaily.com/news/81375
“‘Unpredictable and extreme’: Asia braces for El Niño…
“China has already issued weather warnings for severe rain and storms, as the country prepares for a season of extreme weather ahead of El Niño. Xinhua quoted the Ministry of Water Resources as saying: “The flood control situation is severe and complex.””
“In May 2026, multiple parts of China faced unprecedented extreme weather events, ranging from record-breaking heatwaves to severe floods and rare sandstorms.
“Caixin noted that 144 monitoring stations broke historical precipitation records. Extreme precipitation triggered flash floods in many southern provinces…”
https://dialogue.earth/en/digest/china-hit-by-wide-ranging-extreme-weather-events-in-may/
“Severe weather batters northern China, disrupting daily life.
“Severe convective weather swept across northern China on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing hail, thunderstorms, and gale-force winds to multiple provinces and disrupting daily life for local people.”
“Temperatures continued to rise in southern China today, with 5 stations in Guangdong and Hainan broken or tied their June hottest records.
“However, a cold front will bring torrential rains, and temperatures in eastern China will drop significantly in mid-June.” [Jim Yang]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/2062524877802996134
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN SE ASIA:
“39.2C [102.6F] Mae Sariang [THAILAND] Hottest June day ever… Hundreds of records smashed everywhere in the area: some examples of HOTTEST JUNE NIGHT – MINS 30.2 Areia Preta MACAU, 30.1 Kai Tak HONG KONG; PHILIPPINES – 28.5 Infanta, 28.0 Alabat; INDONESIA – 28.2 Singkep, 27.7 Semarang.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2062806817705472214
“The latest from the ECMWF seasonal model continues to favor a strong El Nino developing in the coming months.
“A positive Indian Ocean Dipole also appears likely heading into boreal autumn/austral spring. The combination of a strong El Nino & +IOD would be bad news for Australia and South East Asia.” [Jason Nicholls]
https://x.com/jnmet/status/2062880349139415044
“Melbourne lashed by wild winter weather as severe storms flood city streets.
“Rolling in like waves at Point Lonsdale, the severe weather caused widespread flooding across Melbourne’s streets, with some drivers pushing their luck through fast-moving floodwaters.”
“New Zealand’s capital of Wellington was flooded with raw sewage and sanitary products after an overnight storm overwhelmed its already crippled wastewater system.
“The storm sent untreated waste into homes and back into the sea in a city that has been battling a sewage crisis for four months.”
“Hidden meltwater found deep in Antarctic coastal waters reveals stronger climate impacts…
“The findings suggest that meltwater from glaciers is being transported and stored tens of meters below the surface, where it could alter ocean circulation, affect the movement of heat and nutrients, and influence how the region responds to climate change.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-06-hidden-meltwater-deep-antarctic-coastal.html
“Endangered Hawaiian whales are losing hundreds of pounds in just weeks…
“The study found that 2020 was the worst year for the whales’ body condition. Across the population, the animals looked their thinnest that year… The timing matters. A marine heatwave had affected the waters around Hawaiʻi and damaged coral reefs. When reefs suffer, fish populations can also decline.”
https://www.earth.com/news/endangered-hawaiian-whales-are-losing-hundreds-of-pounds-in-just-weeks/
“Super El Niño: An expansive, potent and locally record-breaking westerly wind burst will continue traversing the Pacific through mid-June.
“This may generate another Kelvin wave that would transport warm water toward the eastern Pacific. There is much more ocean warming to come.” [Ben Noll]
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2062919876231221511
“And again!!! Another day, another record for the current El Niño Costero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in Paita, Piura yesterday was +7.9°C ( Data DHN Peru).
“All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.” [Abraham Levy]
https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2062942551309439211
“Panama Canal imposes new vessel restrictions amid El Niño concerns.
“The Panama Canal Authority said the decision reflects lessons learned during the 2023-2024 water shortage, when drought forced deeper draft restrictions and capacity cuts that disrupted global shipping. That system is critical not only for shipping but also for Panama’s domestic water supply.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/panama-canal-ships-el-nino-b2990738.html
“HISTORIC HEAT IN TROPICAL AMERICAS:
“Record after record, every day for 2 months: absolutely unprecedented level of heat. COLOMBIA JUNE RECORDS – 41.4 [106.5F] Valledupar, 37.2 Corozal, 37.1 Barrancabermeja, 36.8 Cimitarra, 33.7 Ibague, 29.6 Palonegro… MEXICO Min 23.5 Tepic- Hottest June night.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2062318919155667182
“Heavy rain, flash flooding hit Central Texas Friday night…
“At 8:15 p.m., the National Weather Service issued a new flash flood warning for northwest Travis County until 11 p.m., covering Lago Vista, Jonestown and Nameless Road, after more than 3 inches fell in roughly two hours. Tomasco noted the area is near where flooding devastated Big Sandy Creek during the July 4th weekend in 2025.”
https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/heavy-rain-flash-flood-risk-ahead-for-central-texas-friday-night
“Colorado is now in a statewide drought emergency.
“Gov. Jared Polis declared a statewide emergency on Thursday in response to record-low snowpack and persistent above-average temperatures across Colorado. The move releases additional funding to address the impacts of the dry weather on public lands, farmers and residential water users.”
https://www.cpr.org/2026/06/04/colorado-drought-emergency/
“Lake Mead, Lake Powell Face ‘System Crash’ by 2028, Scientists Warn.
“The report warns that water storage across the basin’s two largest reservoirs—Lake Mead and Lake Powell—is continuing to fall, raising serious concerns about the long-term reliability of one of the United States’ most critical water supplies.”
https://www.newsweek.com/lake-mead-lake-powell-face-system-crash-by-2028-scientists-warn-12030877
“Wildfires are reversing America’s progress on ozone pollution, the main ingredient in smog.
“For decades, the United States made steady progress in reducing surface ozone pollution, the main ingredient in smog. But that progress – achieved as vehicles, industries and power sources became cleaner – is increasingly being overshadowed by a different and growing source of ozone pollution: wildfires.”
“Meteorological spring 2026 was just absurdly mild across the Mid-Atlantic and surrounding regions.
“This map shows the ranking of average high temperatures from March 1 to May 31. A “1” means warmest spring on record for that station… A full season of persistently elevated daytime temperatures.” [The Global Warmer]
https://x.com/TheGlobalWarmer/status/2062979602281058643
“Flooding is rewriting the rules for this Pennsylvania farm.
“Jennifer Glenister, owner of New Morning Farm in central Pennsylvania, is feeling the consequences of extreme and unpredictable weather firsthand… now, she says floods sometimes hit during the early growing season and destroy young vegetable plants. Glenister: “That’s hard.” But she says losing soil to erosion is worse.”
“The three year running average for the global surface temperature anomaly is now more than 1.54°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline.
“With El Nino ahead, expect this to keep rising over the next two years.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2062866559941636108
“Breaking News! May 2026 Mauna Loa CO2 data was just posted by NOAA, and a new record high was set for CO2, now at 432.34 ppm.
“Also, there was a new record for the 36-month annualized rate of growth for CO2, now at 8.28 ppm per 36 months.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2062943081272582589
“Offshore oil and gas expansion threatens key marine ecosystems, report warns…
“Blocks in countries such as Kenya, Indonesia and Australia overlap with some of the planet’s hotspots for marine biodiversity, home to mangroves, coral reefs, sea turtles, sharks and whales. Oil and gas expansion is advancing in spite of the legal protections already in place…”
“UA research suggests ocean collapse triggered ancient wildfires… the study offers insights into how tightly coupled Earth’s systems are...
“…molecular fingerprints reveal a clear pattern: indicators of marine anoxia (oxygen-depleted conditions) appear first, followed by signals of terrestrial wildfire activity. This sequence provides strong evidence that ocean deoxygenation preceded widespread burning on land.”
https://news.ua.edu/2026/06/ua-study-reveals-ancient-ocean-life-collapse-triggered-wildfire/
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Unprecedented, unpredictable and extreme…wow.
Eight “extreme”, four “unprecedented” plus three “historic” and one “centenaire”.
U.S. Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook, check this out:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Tick the soils and flooding boxes for more.
Thanks, Flippr.
The weather here on Islay has been chilly and grey with more of the same forecast. It’s been consistently colder than average but not remarkably so. Meh, as you might say. 😂
I haven’t checked up on Mordecai Ogada’s youtube lately. His latest video is on how conservancy is more often than not a money funnelling/laundering scheme, like 194 bn invested in “green hydrogen” production in Kenya without any actual production to show for it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cvd10L1OvE
However, it’s equally wrong to interpret this as the corruption of what would otherwise be a good thing. The causation is in fact the opposite. Green hydrogen like all “green” ideas is riddled with fallacies, half-truths and myopic (often deliberately so) assumptions. They are in and of themselves stupid (again, deliberately so) which is why they end up getting “corrupted” so utterly without serving any real purpose other than checking boxes for institutions, businesses and governments. Corruption is the real purpose.
It sounds like Kenya’s president is all in on the green transition, Jupiviv:
““Green industrialization presents our continent with an opportunity not only to contribute meaningfully to global climate solutions but also to create jobs, expand manufacturing capacity, strengthen exports, deepen regional value chains and accelerate structural economic transformation.””
https://news.mongabay.com/2026/05/kenyas-ruto-rejects-raw-mineral-export-future-for-africa/
I’m afraid a positive Indian Ocean Dipole + Godzilla El Nino will mean Kenya getting absolutely deluged towards the end of the year.
Mean surface temperatures are getting squeezed between, above, a background lower tropospheric warming of 0.48 degrees per decade accelerating to maybe 0.75 degrees per decade by 2030 and, below, what looks like a sudden break upwards in sea surface temperatures (which surely must show accelerating stratification). The El Nino looks like it’s just going to keep going through winter 2027 instead of dying off after November. It looks like another system phase change is happening like 2015 and 2023. I think GMST might not recover at all after this El Nino, which is going to be mind boggling on its own – and after that everything gets so much worse. It also wouldn’t be a surprise if something odd happened to Arctic or Antarctic sea ice in the next couple of years.
“I think GMST might not recover at all after this El Nino.”
George, I think this is what Météovillages is getting at in my second entry when he says, “We literally have no idea what to expect in terms of global consequences.”
It is not impossible that it triggers a global climate regime shift.
Re Antarctica, Extreme Temps is reporting:
“HISTORIC EVENT: +15c IN ANTARCTIC WINTER. Absolutely insane what we are witnessing: 15.4C/60F Esperanza 🇦🇷Minimum +6.0! HOTTEST WINTER DAY AND NIGHT IN ANTARCTICA’S HISTORY.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2063288685831803289
It looks likely that this will be another example where, even allowing for knowing that things have always turned out worse than expected, they are still underestimated. There will be no way for the mainstream climate scientists to continue to squint their eyes and assert things are still just about within say the model variability. The coming El Nino will be “a leap into unknown” but what will a world with a few billion suffering from famine be called (in French or any other language).
“It looks likely that this will be another example where, even allowing for knowing that things have always turned out worse than expected, they are still underestimated.”
The Inverse Michael Mann law, George. Another of his tweets ageing badly:
“The “super-El Nino” talk is unhelpful clickbait hype. Current consensus forecast is for a Nino3.4 index of ~1.3C to emerge later this year. That’s a *moderate* El Nino; pales in comparison w/ recent (e.g. 2016 & 2024) events. The truth remains bad enough!”
https://x.com/MichaelEMann/status/2044497286408114663
Pan,
One interesting thing about that Mann’s post was that he linked to this presentation by NOAA CPC (they’re *the* guys when it comes to ENSO IIRC):
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
The image he posted comes from slide 25 and depicts relative Nino3.4 forecast, which if memory serves differs slightly from Nino3.4 people have been focusing on for the last couple months (more about it here: http://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe9ed).
On a side note, this isn’t meant as a nitpick or fact-check, but it does kinda bring something I’ve been struggling a lot with recently, i.e. interpreting climate research & data. While I can, dare I say, read scientific papers and more or less understand what they’re about, at some point this stuff becomes so complex and dense that connecting the dots with all the caveats stemming from different methodologies, models and techniques used becomes impossible without proper academic training and connections within the broader scientific community. One recent example that comes to mind was that February/March paper about SMOC “reversal” that wasn’t really a reversal at all or that more recent TLT paper which conclusions I immediately saw applied to GMST by some people online. I guess for a professional or someone within the academia understanding such intricacies and nuances would be trivial, but not everyone has expertise or access the above. In a sense, I guess this also applies to other fields as well; doing science is a full-time job after all… to me, it just means less certainty about what’s going to happen when in the future and what mechanisms will led us there, wherever that “there” is.
Eh, sorry for a rant. I just don’t know how to handle complexity.
On the afterthought:
>(…) NOAA CPC (they’re *the* guys when it comes to ENSO IIRC):
Sorry for a bad phrasing here – didn’t mean to diminish the work of other forecasters (I’m not qualified to say who is right either way). But, on the other hand, I wonder what are the methodological differences between that NOAA CPC forecast and, say, ECMWF ones for RONI3.4.
Nobody, you make a good point about the opacity of some of the science but that doesn’t mean that conjecture about climate change is solely the realm of these granular experts.
Doing what I do, it is not hard to see that a disastrous flood is coming whether or not you understand the intricacies of fluid dynamics.
Eh, true that. Thanks for understanding, Pan.
Mind boggling report today
Truth Wizard, I was certainly doing the odd double-take as I sourced the articles. Scary.
Now is the summer of our discontinuity…
John, it could be. 😬
“When sorrows come, they come not single spies, But in battalions.”
From fellow doom warrior, Lyle Lewis:
“The most common microplastic in your body probably didn’t come from the ocean.
It came from the road.
Every time a vehicle moves, it sheds tiny fragments of synthetic rubber — particles that become airborne, drift, and settle into our lungs and bloodstream.
When people imagine microplastics, they picture oceans. Bottles. Bags. Floating islands of trash. But one of the largest sources isn’t packaging at all. It’s tires.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/lylel/p/the-pollution-we-breathe-without
Thank you, Cassandra. This is one of the criticisms levelled at EV’s. Because they are heavier, they produce more tyre wear pollution than regular cars.
Cassandra, we need not forget this study regarding another
E360 Digest
February 14, 2025
Dust from Car Brakes More Harmful than Exhaust, Study Finds
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/brake-pads-lung-damage-study
In cars, pollution doesn’t come from exhaust alone. It also comes from wear and tear on roads, tires, and brakes. According to new research, tiny bits of dust cast off by brake pads may inflict more harm than car exhaust.
For the study, published in Particle and Fibre Toxicology, researchers grew human lung cells in a lab and exposed them to dust from car brakes and from diesel tailpipes, finding that brake dust caused greater injury to the cells.
Surprisingly, newer brake pads proved more harmful than older ones, which were made with asbestos. Asbestos, which is known to cause cancer, was used to stop brakes from overheating. While newer pads are made without asbestos, they contain high levels of copper, which can aggravate asthma when inhaled. Researchers found they could minimize the harm from newer pads by treating brake dust with a chemical that neutralizes copper.
Oh well. Soon these metal objects will be stranded cubicles for shelter only, but I’ll miss Tfe ride, and it was a fun, wild ride
Today it’s dumpster fire usa! I was contacted by a company about the election and it was a survey for nbc news. Its was hard to answer when you don’t fit in their survey which is right left red blue when everything is going to shit. I was able to somewhat say everything is really bad and the constitution is toilet paper now. I don’t go to church and i am not maga. I am non voter but can’t say why because the constitution is trash now. And the elites rich dicks sucks. Of course nothing about iran war zero zilch.
I used to write Charlie Sheen’s name in but now I vote third party
Heather, I wish you’d recorded that conversation. Sounds like it would be a hilarious listen.
Survivalist, Charlie Sheen seems to have lived a life of debauchery worthy of the last days of Rome.
Good point. I’ll prob start writing his name in again:
Countries and states that attempt to insure/rebuild properties that are damaged by flood and fire will more quickly go bankrupt than they already are. I suspect many countries are going to find that in the next recession they will be forced to tell citizens to stop expecting the government to help with food, medical care, unemployment benefit, and pensions. Thats what happens when insolvency is your story, and Overshoot is the root cause. Eventually the contraction will ramp up in earnest.
“The property underinsurance gap tied to climate risk is staggering, with an estimated 39 million US homes possessing insurance coverage that underprices their actual climate risk. Up to 85% of at-risk single-family homes lack sufficient coverage, and roughly one-third of all global natural disaster losses remain completely uninsured.”
Poor people around the world already know all about this… the lower 4 billion tier.
The next 4 billion tier is on tract to learn much more about this.
“I suspect many countries are going to find that in the next recession they will be forced to tell citizens to stop expecting the government to help with food, medical care, unemployment benefit, and pensions.”
August, I imagine that reaching that point would entail total societal collapse. If people lose confidence that the state can meet its most basic obligations then we’d have anarchy. The financial system can’t operate in that context. Climate insurance is definitely one of many glaring vulnerabilities in that system.
True. I think its a pretty high probability. There is no recipe for calm contraction.
This is what you should do: love the earth and sun and the animals, despise riches, give alms to everyone that asks, stand up for the stupid and crazy, devote your income and labor to others, hate tyrants, argue not concerning God, have patience and indulgence toward the people, take off your hat to nothing known or unknown or to any man or number of men … re-examine all you have been told at school or church or in any book, dismiss what insults your own soul, and your very flesh shall be a great poem.
Walt Whitman
💚
FYI – China continues to supply Iran with dual-use chemical precursors, such as sodium perchlorate, which are used to manufacture solid rocket propellants for ballistic missiles.
Yep, and the US has no inclination to halt Chinese shipping.