49 Comments

1. 

   Flippr on March 14, 2026 at 10:55 am

   Here we go into week three.

   Kharg Island has been hit and Trump is using the word “obliterated” again.

   Pete “Crusades are Cool” Hegseth is making Goebbels look like an amateur.

   Try to enjoy your weekend my C&E friends. Meh…

   Quark’s latest, google translated:

   We’ve had the Strait of Hormuz “closed” for 15 days now. That means almost no ships are passing through this narrow passage that allows vessels to leave the world’s largest oil-producing region.

   The damage to the oil supply is enormous. A reduction of this magnitude has never occurred before (the Iran-Iraq War or the 1973 crisis barely affected 4-5 million barrels per day, between 7-9% of the world supply), and therefore, we are in uncharted territory.

   Without going into the development of the war and Trump’s declarations “we have won the war”, I am going to try to “guess” where the conflict is leading us.

   The long-term price of Brent crude can be seen in this chart .

   Until 2005, the price of oil was controlled in bands between $10 and $30 a barrel, but the peak of conventional oil caused the first major rise (first wave) in prices until culminating in 2008 with around $150 a barrel, after which a combined crisis occurred as a result of such levels and the bursting of the sub-prime bubble.

   The subsequent movement formed some large “sub-waves”.

   1st) Drop to $33 due to the economic crisis.

   2) Recovery to $100 after the BC bailout measures. Plateau around $100-$120 until 2014.

   3) High oil prices led to extraordinary investment in US shale oil, which needed very high prices to develop the required infrastructure and improve extraction techniques.

   Once a certain cruising speed was reached, oil prices plummeted in 2014, due to the influx of supply from the US. They fell to the $30 area, where they began to rebound.

   4th) Significant rise until the pandemic destroyed demand. In this bullish phase, prices approached $90.

   5) The crisis caused by the lockdowns in 2020 caused prices to plummet. They reached their lowest point since the start of the major price surge, around $20 (WTI even traded in negative territory due to the inability to store more oil).

   This point is considered the low of the second major bearish wave.

   6) After the 2020 low, the third major bull market began. The post-pandemic recovery coincided with the Russian invasion crisis, and prices reached $130 again.

   7) The restrictions imposed by Russian sanctions did not deprive oil production as much as anticipated, and demand took years to reach new highs. This period also allowed for the completion of some major delayed developments, such as Brazil’s pre-salt fields and the successful start of operations in Guyana. The expansions in Norway, Kazakhstan, and Saudi Arabia, along with the surge in delayed projects in the Gulf of Mexico, combined with China’s determined efforts to maintain production, Canada’s organic growth, and peak US shale oil production, led to a supply surge that culminated in 2025 and early 2026, pushing prices back to $60.

   8th). The attack on Iran gave rise to the next upward wave in which we are currently immersed.

   Due to the characteristics of the technical formation, this wave will surpass the highs of the first big wave ($150) and will mark new highs, probably above $200, before falling again.

   It’s too early to set targets, but it has the potential to reach $400 by the end of the move, although concerted intervention in the futures markets may prevent that final target, leaving it at more manageable figures ($200-250).

   Remember that technical analysis provides guidance on possible scenarios and objectives, but it’s not a guarantee of anything. It should only be considered as another form of complementary analysis, nothing more.

   ————————————-

   This would be a first assessment from a technical point of view, because the fundamentals are appalling.

   A supply limitation of 15-20 million b/d of crude oil and derivatives would push us into an unprecedented economic depression if it lasts long enough to cause a severe limitation of global transport.

   So far, the markets have ignored the consequences of a prolonged shutdown, preferring to think it will last a month at most. If this outlook changes at any point, we will see market crashes and the beginning of the phases I discussed in the previous post .

   The attack on Kharg Island yesterday after the markets closed is a red line that could significantly worsen the conflict.

   In what could represent a major escalation in the two-week-long war between the United States and Israel against Iran, President Trump announced Friday night (after the close of US markets) that US Central Command had carried out a major airstrike on Kharg Island , through which more than 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports pass. It is worth noting that Iran had already warned that an attack on the island would cross a red line and trigger Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf .

   If Iran, in turn, decides to attack the infrastructure and oil fields in the area, we will be facing a serious situation. The shutdown can be resolved without problems through an agreement, but if the damage affects oil extraction and processing, the outlook for global supply becomes permanent for several months. Therefore, a reduction of 20 million barrels per day (let’s say nine months) in supply would leave the entire world without oil and refined product reserves (20 million x 270 days = 5.4 billion barrels) and cause an unprecedented restriction in the oil supply. The damage to the global economy would be incalculable, with widespread rationing and restrictions as if we were under lockdown every day. It would be a total collapse.

   Of course, in that scenario (remember that it no longer depends on the West, but on the Iranian response), oil prices would reach unthinkable figures.

   Once again, the world is unaware of the magnitude of the disaster that is beginning to loom in a likely scenario of prolonged supply disruption. We’ve been led to believe that oil isn’t important, and that if there’s no gasoline or diesel, electric cars will easily replace oil. We’re in a state of denial, due to misinformation .

   Electrification is starting the replacement process, but oil is still essential for everything, including the creation of electrical infrastructure and, of course, necessary for the manufacture of all types of power plants.

   There is already talk of a new renewable energy boom, but it would take decades to impact the decline in demand for fossil fuels, and we only have a few months to survive.

   If we add this supply-demand mismatch to overvalued markets and the persistent formation of bubbles, we have a deadly combination.

   We will proceed step by step, but if the Iranian response attacks oil extraction (with irreversible damage in the short to medium term), prepare for a severe economic depression in the coming years.

   • 

     George Kaplan on March 14, 2026 at 11:47 am

     I think before a renewables boom we will see a big jump in coal demand, how much supply is available to meet it remains to be seen.

   • 

     Duke on March 14, 2026 at 12:18 pm

     Manipulation of the oil markets is already ongoing according to these traders:

     Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at Energy Aspects, said the consultancy had been fielding calls this week on whether the government was behind a series of large unexplained trades in recent days.

     “We were being pushed by clients as to who the big seller was,” Skirrow said.

     “The speculation was that it could be from the US Treasury,” he added, noting that the government has previously intervened in other markets, such as currencies.

     Rapidan Energy Group, a consultancy founded by former White House energy adviser Bob McNally, said this week that while such a move by the government would be “unprecedented”, it was clear “the idea of the US Treasury selling front-month crude futures” was getting “more attention than usual”.

     “Given the current panic situation,” Rapidan analysts wrote in a note for clients, “we cannot completely rule it out”.

     The Treasury declined to comment on the speculation. A person familiar with Treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s thinking said the agency had not intervened in oil markets.

     A spokesman at the Department of Energy said it had not been involved in oil derivatives trading or advising other arms of the government on such a course of action.

     • 

       Panopticon on March 14, 2026 at 5:09 pm

       Meanwhile, Trump is urging France, UK, Japan, South Korea et al to send warships to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open, and the head of Iran’s parliamentary committee on national security and foreign policy has said Ukraine is a legitimate target for assisting Israel with drone support.

       This does not feel like it is de-escalating any time soon.

       “Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please.” [Machiavelli]

2. 

   zip on March 14, 2026 at 11:41 am

   The numbers are large – but the real problem lies elsewhere

   Quark’s analyses are interesting to read. But one very essential element is being overlooked: the ELM. In other words, what is actually available for export in terms of oil and gas?

   In discussions about a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the big numbers are constantly thrown around. Twenty million barrels per day. Twenty percent of the world’s oil supply. Billions of barrels that might not be delivered.
   These are impressive figures, but they hide another problem that is often forgotten.

   For importing countries, it is not production that matters most, but the export that actually remains available. That is precisely the principle behind the so-called Export Land Model (ELM).
   When oil-producing countries export less – because of war, sanctions, or transport disruptions – they first protect their domestic consumption and their most important customers. What remains is the oil that reaches the open market.

   And that is where the real problem begins. Even a relatively small decline in total production can lead to a much larger decline in freely available exports. For importing countries such as European states or Japan, this can mean that the oil available to them shrinks far more quickly than global statistics suggest.

   On the market where countries actually have to buy their oil, the available supply can suddenly become much smaller. That is why energy crises often accelerate unexpectedly. Not because the world suddenly runs out of oil, but because the export volumes appearing on the market shrink rapidly.

   • 

     Panopticon on March 14, 2026 at 6:18 pm

     Thank you, Zip – you make a good point.

     I was wondering what the $147 oil price spike that punctured the financial system in 2008 would be in today’s money. It’s around $223… but then the system’s ability to absorb the shock is much weaker today.

     UK GDP, for example, was a fairly robust 2.5/3% in 2007; today it’s basically flatlining. Our public debt was around 40% of GDP; now it’s 100%. Plus we’re producing way less oil and gas to offset supply problems.

3. 

   jupiviv on March 14, 2026 at 12:01 pm

   ““Drinking water is [Iran’s] most strategic vulnerability,” Veeravalli said. “These centralized water distribution systems are fantastic, except when they become single points of failure, which they’re becoming quickly right now.””

   Apparently the US attacked Kharg island but “only” military targets. This is a threat – irreversible damage to vital Iranian civilian infrastructure is on the table for US-NATO, and they’re willing to live with the consequences, which in any case will not affect the US (and Russia) nearly as much as everyone else… at least not in the short term. And yet, good sense is already starting break out and disperse the doom clouds. The instawar will be over soon enough and guess what… everybody won! And what do winners get? That’s right, pizza movie night yaaay!

   What about the potentially irreversible damage (direct or structural) already caused to refineries and wells, or the water crisis that was threatening basic human survival in Iran even before this mess? What about the other crises that our system of society pretends to mitigate or address while making them worse? Who cares! I ordered a pizza with pineapples on it… how fracking insane is that?

   • 

     Panopticon on March 14, 2026 at 6:25 pm

     “The instawar will be over soon enough and guess what… everybody won! And what do winners get? That’s right, pizza movie night yaaay!”

     Jupiviv, if instawar does indeed end soon with the oil shock subsiding and all parties managing to claim some sort of moral, if not actual, victory, the stock market “relief” rally will be something to behold.

     • 

       Martin on March 14, 2026 at 6:54 pm

       I.guess.I.don’t.understand –
       On what basis would Netanyahu allow his American agent to pull back?
       Asking for a friend.

       • 

         Panopticon on March 14, 2026 at 7:13 pm

         Martin, time will tell whether economic pressure at home or pressure from Israel exerts a stronger force on Trump.

         “Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute argues that the trajectory of the conflict is being driven by a series of debates: between US defence policy professionals and Trump’s inner circles; between the US and Israel; and between political and military echelons in Iran, not least the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps seeking revenge.”

         https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/14/how-iran-war-escalate-vietnam-trump-netanyahu-us-israel

4. 

   Duke on March 14, 2026 at 12:26 pm

   I think Fast Eddy said that in Australia the government was prioritizing the production of diesel and jet fuel over bunker fuel and that the fuel necessary for shipping was being effected. If you are thinking of cushioning the blow you might want to stock up on food items that are imported. At a prepper site they recommended Dutch Cocoa Powder, freeze dried coffee and sugar. Must have been Canadian because Canada imports 90% of their sugar.

   https://mykn.kuehne-nagel.com/news/article/fears-mount-on-ship-fuel-availability-as#:~:text=Bunker%20prices%20have%20already%20doubled,average%20spread%20in%20two%20years.

   • 

     Ravi Uppal on March 14, 2026 at 4:05 pm

     Duke , Australia has only two refineries that can supply only 20% of demand . Australia must import refined products . Current situation ;
     “According to the latest government data, during 2024–25 Australia held on average:

     39 days of petrol
     31 days of kerosene (jet fuel)
     33 days of diesel
     “These figures do not represent days of import disruption. They represent days of consumption cover,” De Mello explains.

     “When the government says we have 39 days of petrol, that includes fuel already on tankers heading towards Australia.”

     Latest reports indicate that pumps in the outback are running dry and diesel for farmers is becoming a problem . Pumps are limiting sales by self rationing . Govt rationing not yet applied . However jet fuel is becoming a big problem . Don’t be surprised if in 2-3 weeks all flights to Australia are stopped .
     https://lighthouse.mq.edu.au/article/2026/march-2026/could-australia-run-out-of-petrol

     • 

       Panopticon on March 14, 2026 at 6:47 pm

       An Australia crumbling under the duress of fuel shortages was the premise of Mad Max, I recall.

       • 

         Ravi Uppal on March 14, 2026 at 7:25 pm

         Ground the planes , feed the tractors . Coming shortly to a theater near you .

         • 

           Duke on March 14, 2026 at 8:46 pm

           Thanks Ravi.

           If you include hoarding into the equation it is most likely worse.

           • 

             Duke on March 14, 2026 at 9:59 pm

             Australia might be worse than expected

             https://x.com/SprinterPress/status/2032826340395667610?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2032826340395667610%7Ctwgr%5E9ce3d04f52eb5b854218cb8ab7a64da16e5c36af%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.godlikeproductions.com%2Fforum1%2Fmessage6147515%2Fpg1

             • 

               Rain on March 15, 2026 at 1:44 am

               My understanding is Australia has one remaining, not quite fully depleted crude oil off-shore field (North West Shelf) which still produces about 20% … But only one remaining refinery at full capacity, (another at partial) and is govt subsidised to remain open for “essential” stocks (whatever that is defined as?) .

               A long way from the 1970s when Australia had enough drilling fields to be 80% self-sufficient in crude and with 8 full capacity & profitable refineries.

               The vast majority of Australia’s refined fuels I believe now come from Malaysian refineries. Cheaper than some, given the short freight shipping.

               But yeah, it got suddenly bad here in pricing…. I was talking to my adult children about the “crazy petrol prices” the other night, one recently sold her car for other reasons, but won’t be getting another any time soon because she ‘did the numbers’ and wouldnt be worth running it. Her kids are also now 18 and 19..

               and then it hit me, they are too young to recall anything like this when it’s happened before, and were quite perplexed at how a war, way, way over there in a “little” spot on the map can cause so much grief *here*.

               Not even fussed when the Oz PM announced we were sending troops to help “protect” the UAE.. my 30s and 40-something kids, just didn’t *get it*

               It just didn’t make sense to them.

               I mumbled something about since years of blatant genocide hasn’t moved anyone on this planet, maybe global hyperinflation & critical shortages will?

               Still didn’t make any sense to them, so we’ll see I guess 😆

             • 

               Ravi Uppal on March 15, 2026 at 9:26 am

               Transport is a huge issue but not the worst one, and can be somewhat overcome by trains in a pinch. Everywhere remote is cooked outside of camel/horse transport but in reality were unsustainable outposts of indistrual civ anyway.

               Ag is the bigger problem; because of our mostly old soils, huge distances and water issues, our agriculture is extremely dependent on imported fertilizer inputs, relatively cheap diesel and big industrial irrigation schemes. We have no history of broad scale agriculture without fossil fuels (coal was still a subsidising factor in the 19th century), unlike almost everywhere else on earth. We dont even know of its possible.

               Everything will have to be massively relocalised in a low diesel environment, and the soil issue starts to get worse because we all currently eat food from all over aus, but a localised food chain is more exposed to chronic fertility issues. One assisting factor is we have spread a lot of calcium and phosphate that is now present in the soil and local biosphere which will end up helping going forward compared to what it was pre colonisation.

               We can do large scale pastoralism but that can’t sustain our current population.

               Copy/paste

5. 

   Bob Shaw on March 14, 2026 at 1:30 pm

   From Pan’s posting above: ““Drinking water is [Iran’s] most strategic vulnerability,” Veeravalli said. “These centralized water distribution systems are fantastic, except when they become single points of failure, which they’re becoming quickly right now.””

   ME: Makes one wonder if the US & Israeli military are targeting any Iranian factories that make plastic or stainless-steel water jugs. Additional targeting of the petrochemical refineries that make the chemicals needed to make plastic water jugs will also wreck the supply chain for production.

   If an Iranian cannot buy a water jug, then it instantly becomes a highly personal single point of failure:

   +++++++++++++++++++++++++++
   If you can’t hold it, then you don’t own it!
   ++++++++++++++++++++++++++

   This applies to water jugs much, much, more than owning some PMs! Does everyone here on C & E own some water jugs? Or are you going to wait until it is too late?

   Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

   • 

     Bob Shaw on March 14, 2026 at 3:04 pm

     Do you also own a wheelbarrow or a two-wheel dolly to easily move your water jugs?

     Or have you been practicing daily to balance a 42 lb five-gallon bucket on your head? This Olympic move takes a lot of strength and determination!

     https://www.bing.com/search?q=Water+Security+In+African+Villages&bcid=SO3x9NjTnKMJNn799IdXJJPhUa6O…..48&FORM=SBIWPA&hq=1

     • 

       Bob Shaw on March 14, 2026 at 3:08 pm

       https://www.bing.com/search?q=Water+Security+In+African+Villages&bcid=SO3x9NjTnKMJNn799IdXJJPhUa6O…..48&FORM=SBIWPA&hq=1

       • 

         Bob Shaw on March 14, 2026 at 3:13 pm

         sorry, I could not get these multiple pictures to load. Use your imagination instead!

         • 

           Bob Shaw on March 14, 2026 at 3:25 pm

           Youtube comes thru, yea! 55 seconds long:
           —————————–
           A glimpse into…carrying water on your head

           A glimpse into parts of my life here in Zambia.

           Recently I was visiting some friends at Lake Tanganyika and the water stopped coming out of the pipes. The closest water was from the lake, 20min away. Perfect opportunity to practice carrying buckets on my head…it’s harder than it looks!

           https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Q3rNvOzRXs
           ———————
           ME: Don’t forget that you will probably want to filter and/or boil this water too. Can you carry firewood on your head too? Or will you take the chance of getting diarrhea?

           • 

             Panopticon on March 14, 2026 at 7:02 pm

             Bob, I think this particular dog is too old to learn a new trick like that.

             A lot of watersheds around the world are going to be contaminated with untreated sewage, radioactive materials or heavy metals and chemicals (see the last article in the thread re mine tailing dams), so even finding potable water to carry will be a lottery.

           • 

             Bob Shaw on March 14, 2026 at 7:56 pm

             How soon until this is our required daily exercise as CC and infrastructure collapse hammers home?
             ————————-
             Walking in Sabina’s shoes {13:26 minutes}

             https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bEtqZoD4V4
             ————————
             ME: A white woman volunteers to try what Sabina totes on her back, twice a day—>two four-mile round trips per day for 13 gallons total [approx. 108 pounds total]. Each round trip takes about 3 hours to complete.

             Big jug [looks like a five-gallon jug to me] weighs 57 pounds, the smaller jug 15 pounds, but then she quickly says 13 lbs. 70 lbs total twice a day, everyday!

             I think her scale needs calibration because 5 gallons plus jug should be about 42 water + 3 jug = approx. 45 pounds. For the smaller jug [looks to be about 2 gallons] that should weigh 16.6 water + 2 jug = 18.5 pounds total, but maybe it wasn’t filled to the top.

             So 45 + 19 = approx. 64 pounds twice a day! Still damn heavy for anyone to carry on their back. No wonder the wheelbarrow was invented so long ago.

             Spoiler alert: The white woman only makes one trip in the video.

     • 

       Duke on March 14, 2026 at 8:49 pm

       Bob I recently bought a yoke. 5 gallon buckets are the way forward and my elbows and wrists rebel after too much use. With the yoke I can move the world in my 5 gallon buckets.

       • 

         Bob Shaw on March 14, 2026 at 10:41 pm

         Duke, Good for you! Whatever works best for your situation. I like my two-wheel dolly routed with a sturdy strap through the frame, then around my waist to ease the pulling burden on my arms and hands. Works pretty well in the snow if my feet get decent traction.

         When the weather is decent a wheelbarrow or small 4-wheel wagon easily moves ten gallons at a time for me.

     • 

       Survivalist on March 15, 2026 at 12:13 am

       I like strapping a very large and rugged plastic garbage can to a good quality 2 wheeled dolly. Can move a lots of stuff much easier. I prefer it over a wheelbarrow for anything other than dirt.

6. 

   Rob on March 14, 2026 at 8:20 pm

   ‘“Scientists are warning…”

   … so what? They’ve been warning for decades about Climate Change, yet the Furor calls it a hoax, and no one boos, no one stands up and jeers or walks out, they silt like schoolchildren in an auditorium with Sister Superior wielding a yardstick offstage.

   So scientists’ warnings mean zero if the American Furor, known worldwide as a convicted felon, subversive insurrectionist, and deranged psychopath, can cow the globe with one statement every one knows is a lie, but which no one dare gainsay.

   The US military burns through as much fossil fuel as the country of Sweden, so by itself, it will suck up the entire output of the SPR releases.

   In the last 15 months, the US has jettisoned enough renewable energy infrastructure to power the state of Texas.

   The Furor calling his predecessor an idiot at every opportunity, has forcefully pushed his own country and the world to unprecedented dependence on oil combustion while shutting down all alternatives, and then launches an invasion that he knew would clamp down supplies (he summarily dismissed his advisers who pointed this out to him).

   In the last 40 years, the entire economy, far from attempting Carter’s MEOW, has made its economy more and more dependent on electronic goods: the telephony systems are now supercool, yet no one knows their own friends’ telephone Number : it is in the cloud, it often isn’t even on their own devise, same with e-mail. If the net goes down, you can’t access/contact anything. We used to have physical backup for our computers, now all our data is out of our reach when the net goes down.

   Like drones, this is “Defense Department “ technologies sold for their offensive capabilities while each and every one of them ignores citizen security, making even day-to-day existence more “effortless”, yes, but infinitely more tenuous … and this we call Defense.

   At the same time, for Americans to get from point a to b requires @ least twice the fuel, as the vehicles are now twice the weight, the distances, far longer.

   On Oct 7, when Hamas attacked, my first thought was, well there goes any chance of Biden being elected to a second term. Regardless of whether my hypothesis that Putin and Netanyahoo connived this attack to assure the election of the Furor, this invasion that has no other reason even proferred to justify it, gives credibility to my claim: the government of Israel and Russia demanded their payback; the Israelis may well regret the extorted compliance of Trump, but Putin is already profiteering handsomely from it.

   By any war planner, including AI-enabled strategists, these outcomes were entirely predictable.

   Yet the US is in complete denial that the Furor they put in charge is betoken to billionaires and
   Other state players, not to his Make Israel Great Again constituency (never mind any OECD country).

   • 

     Bob Shaw on March 14, 2026 at 10:26 pm

     Hello Rob, great write up! Your Quote: “The US military burns through as much fossil fuel as the country of Sweden, so by itself, it will suck up the entire output of the SPR releases.”

     Since Trump is now calling for other countries to send their armed forces to help open up Hormuz, then they too will probably quickly burn thru their own respective SPRs [Strategic Petroleum Reserves].

     I haven’t done the math but these SPRs added all together probably still don’t add up to what Iran has so far choked off.

     Another consideration: the required Elements for fertilizer mfg. can also be used for military explosives. Think of Timothy McVeigh & 1995 Oklahoma bombing. So Nitrogen [N], Sulphur [S], Phosphorus [P], Potassium [K] and more need lots of FF energy to be mined, beneficiated, and moved [P,K], and lots of natgas for Haber-Bosch [N] and oil & natgas extraction for [S].

     What will global leaders prioritize? Fertilizer for growing food for us ‘useless eaters’ or instead shifting these Elements towards making ever more bombs to whittle down the ‘useless eaters’?

     Can the military-industrial complex easily outbid the farm-to-dinner table industries for these essential Elements?

     Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

   • 

     Panopticon on March 16, 2026 at 5:18 pm

     An epic rant, Rob. 😆

     “So scientists’ warnings mean zero if the American Furor, known worldwide as a convicted felon, subversive insurrectionist, and deranged psychopath, can cow the globe with one statement every one knows is a lie, but which no one dare gainsay.”

     I fear scientists’ warnings mean zero full stop, given the “runaway freight-train” nature of our civilisation.

7. 

   Bob Shaw on March 15, 2026 at 4:12 am

   Opinion – Trump’s warmongering in Iran will not make America secure again

   The Hill by William S. Becker, opinion contributor, March 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM CDT
   ———————–
   President Trump promised to avoid “forever wars.” It remains to be seen whether the new conflict in Iran will become one.

   However, there’s not much difference between forever wars and the continuous wars Trump has conducted in his second term. He has already used military force against Venezuela, the Caribbean, Nigeria, Somalia, Yemen, Syria and Iraq, as well as Iran. Congress did not authorize any of it.

   Of course, the U.S. was a bellicose nation long before Trump. The country has been at war for approximately 93 percent of its 250-year history. However, Trump is making current and future wars much more likely.

   Global climate change, for example, is one of the biggest modern threats to global stability. Military and intelligence officials have warned for years that it is a critical national security issue. Trump ignores it.

   The Obama administration secured an agreement with Iran to slow down its nuclear-weapons program. Trump trashed the agreement. The current war is his second attempt in the last year to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. But war is not a nonproliferation strategy.

   Trump is making things worse….

   https://www.aol.com/articles/opinion-trump-warmongering-iran-not-150000755.html
   ————————————-
   ME: wild speculation ahead–> Why would Trump want Cuba?

   Perhaps another ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ for controlling his named Gulf of America and the Western Hemisphere? Could it become America’s ‘Kharg Island’ bristling with FF infrastructure and military armaments? Would it make it easier to disrupt the Caribbean drug trafficking?

   I asked Copilot AI: Has Cuba and its offshore areas been fully explored for fossil fuels?
   ————–
   ANSWER: Short answer: No — Cuba and its offshore areas have not been fully explored for fossil fuels. Modern assessments show that significant portions of Cuba’s offshore basins, especially deepwater areas, remain under‑explored and may still contain undiscovered oil and gas resources.

   Cuba has seen only limited offshore exploration, mostly in onshore and shallow‑water fields along the northern coast. These areas produce heavy crude but are insufficient for national demand.

   A 2025 USGS assessment identifies undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources in the North Cuba area, confirming that exploration is incomplete and that potential remains.
   —————————-
   ME: Interesting that the US Geological Survey [USGS] has taken such a recent fascination with Cuba. Perhaps under orders from Trump to encourage more “drill, baby, drill”?

   As the Texas Permian declines, and diesel becomes rarer everyday: Cuban heavy crude could be more desired than exotic Cuban cigars.

   But as sea level rises, wet-bulb temps too, plus the occasional CAT 5 hurricane: is it pointless to try to develop Cuban crude?

   Useless speculation, or does this have future merit?

   Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

8. 

   George Kaplan on March 15, 2026 at 8:06 am

   Art Berman’s latest emphasising the unprecedented speed of this disruption as well as its magnitude. However I don’t understand this quote from Jeff Curie (the link doesn’t actually find the original): “You’ve taken the pressure out of the fields that you shut-in in places like …”

   https://www.artberman.com/blog/the-iran-war-a-world-changing-event/

   Shutting in wells doesn’t reduce pressure. The flow to the well bore induces a pressure drop so stopping it allows the average pressure to rise. Even if outflow is stopped water injection can be continued so if necessary the pressure can be increased – this is often a reason for reducing the production, so that the mass balance can be restored and the reservoir pressure kept above bubble point.

   This blog is pretty good, I’m not sure it’s been linked here before.

   “One of the things I frequently come across on an almost daily basis is the disconnect between daily living and the energy and resources required to sustain said activity. Very few people understand that without the ability to maintain the fossil fuel platform (having enough energy to keep the extraction process, the transportation of the raw material (coal, methane, crude oil, tar sands, etc.) to the refineries, the transportation corridors (roads, railroads, ships, etc.) open and operating smoothly, pipelines, pumping stations, and civilization itself [since it is us who actually maintain all these systems] running), civilization itself comes to a rather sudden stop.”

   https://problemspredicamentsandtechnology.blogspot.com/2026/03/qualities-of-predicaments-to-keep-in.html

9. 

   Duke on March 15, 2026 at 9:00 am

   Thanks George. Two good links.

10. 

    Flippr on March 15, 2026 at 9:30 am

    Quark’s latest is titled “The Spot Oil Market Is Going To Explode”.

    Direct link: https://tinyurl.com/bujck3cx

    Google translated, copied and pasted, two images/graphs missing:

    Oil destined for export reaches approximately 43-44 million barrels per day. In 2024-2025, 20.8 million barrels of liquids transited the Strait of Hormuz, divided into approximately 14.6-14.7 million b/d of crude oil and condensates and 6.1 million b/d of refined products (diesel, kerosene, etc.).

    Currently, Iran alone transports 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil. The pipelines that leave the strait are primarily the one that crosses Saudi Arabia to the port of Yanbu (with a port capacity limit of 4.5-5 million b/d) and the one that runs from the UAE to Fujairah, which is threatened by continuous bombing and can contribute almost nothing. In other words, there is currently a restriction of 15-16 million b/d of crude oil, condensates, and petroleum products that cannot leave the area.

    This level of supply disruption has never occurred in history, so all calculations are entering uncharted territory.

    The process that affects the setting of oil prices over time depends on several factors.

    1st). Oil in transit.

    Even counting February 28th as the first day of the disruption to oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz, it’s clear that numerous ships still have cargo to deliver. In some cases, like India, it only takes a few days, but other destinations can take up to 30-45 days. Until all the cargoes are unloaded, there won’t be a supply decrease equivalent to the one discussed in the introduction.

    2nd). Oil stored at sea.

    Primarily Russia and Iran (because Venezuela has been offloading its storage for some time). The estimate at the beginning of March was around 107 million barrels.

    According to Vortexa , Russian oil has fallen by at least 20 million barrels, at a rate of about 2 million b/d.

    3rd). Strategic reserves.

    Everyone is aware of the IEA’s coordinated decision to release 400 million barrels to alleviate the anticipated shortage. Although the distribution schedule varies, with deliveries taking between two and four months, we can estimate that the supply will fluctuate between 3.3 and 6 million barrels per day.

    4th). Commercial reservations.

    Before running out of supply, all countries will have commercial reserves to avoid shortages. However, this supply depends on each country, and it is obviously impossible to make an estimate for each one.

    In principle, different groups of countries are affected depending on their domestic reserves. OECD countries must meet a minimum of 90 days of consumption. China has an estimated 120 days. Producing countries like the USA have much less. And then there are Australia and India with very low figures.

    India has 10 days of strategic reserves and about 64 days of commercial reserves, while Australia has only 30-34 days of refined products (it has very little crude oil in storage). At the other extreme, Japan has 254 days of combined strategic and commercial reserves.

    It’s important to note that the actual reserves aren’t measured in that specific figure, because pipelines must be completely full to transport crude oil and refined products; they can never be completely empty. This reduces the figures mentioned above by 10-15%. Nor are they expected to be reduced to zero, as it’s always preferable to maintain a reserve for state priorities.

    All this long introduction is to explain what will happen to the price of oil in the coming weeks if the closure of Hormuz continues.

    In the export market, out of every four barrels, three have fixed contracts and one is sold on the spot market (where the prices of oil are actually set “on the spot” for all barrels, including fixed contracts).

    When one of the countries is left with a very low reserve (after receiving oil from the Middle East), it will bid for oil on the spot market.

    In other words, Spain buys 90% of its oil from outside the Middle East, and it’s often said that what happens there doesn’t affect it much. But that’s not true. A shipment from Nigeria, contracted on the spot market and destined for Spain, could mysteriously change course and be sent to China because that country has bid five dollars more per barrel.

    Including the delivery of strategic reserves and oil stored at sea, the daily oil deficit is estimated at between 7 and 10 million b/d, which must be obtained at any price.

    We can already imagine that, as the weeks go by, the reserves run out, the oil in the sea disappears and no importing country wants to be left without supply, so desperate bidding begins.

    In this case, the price of oil is set by the marginal barrel, not by permanent contracts, and can reach exorbitant levels depending on the system’s needs. As time goes on, bids could reach extraordinary figures because supply has been reduced by 15 million barrels per day, but the oil available for export has decreased by 30-40%, which is madness if it continues.

    After the first four weeks, almost all the ships will have delivered their cargo, and desperate bidding will begin. The price of oil may still be contained, but if we enter that phase, we’ll see outrageous prices.

    Currently, oil prices in paper futures markets do not reflect what is happening in the physical market.

    ” The oil futures market is likely underestimating the huge supply disruption that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing to the physical supply of crude oil and fuel globally.”

    Crude oil futures prices briefly rose earlier this week to $119 a barrel, before retreating to $90 and trading at $100 a barrel in early Friday trading in Asia.

    However, the premium for physical Dubai crude has soared to $38 per barrel above its paper equivalent, according to data compiled by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell .

    Therefore, the real price of a barrel of oil is around $140, not the $103 shown on the paper price.

    Time is starting to run very fast and we’ll see what happens in the next two weeks.

11. 

    Duke on March 15, 2026 at 11:14 am

    Here is a spot that I found where oil seems to trade through the weekend. Obviously up through the weekend but what is being priced. Is it per ton or something else. Thanks

    https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-oil—us-crude#lb-buyselllightbox

12. 

    Duke on March 15, 2026 at 11:16 am

    You can get all the oil prices around the world with a delay.

    https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#prices

13. 

    Duke on March 15, 2026 at 11:29 am

    Things are getting bad in Australia. This from Ai.

    As of mid-March 2026, concerns over diesel supplies for Australian farmers have reached a critical point, with reports indicating some rural producers may only have a week or two of diesel on hand during peak seeding season. This situation is driven by rising tensions in the Middle East affecting global fuel security and causing panic buying in regional areas.
    Facebook
    Facebook
    +3
    Key details regarding the situation:
    Low On-Farm Supplies: NSW Farmers President Xavier Martin stated some farmers are “a week or two away from empty”.
    Regional Shortages: Independent fuel retailers in rural areas are struggling to supply, with some areas reporting running out of fuel.
    National Reserves: Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen confirmed that, as of March 3, 2026, Australia has 34 days of diesel and 36 days of petrol in total reserves (including fuel on ships).
    Increased Demand/Panic: There has been a reported 40% increase in demand, with some suppliers seeing “a month’s worth of fuel” sold in a single day.
    Industry Impact: The shortages threaten to impact the ability of farmers to plant crops for the coming season, which could affect future food production.
    Facebook
    Facebook
    +4

14. 

    Bob Shaw on March 15, 2026 at 11:58 am

    Thanks George Kaplan & Flippr for these links!

    Any oil importing country that is dependent upon diesel for pumping water uphill to provide pressure for its water infrastructure will be especially eager to outbid others for diesel.

    They could die of thirst long before the diesel shipment transits the ocean, then is offloaded, then is distributed across their country to restart the pumps extracting water from their depleting aquifers. Then lastly, diesel is required to power each neighborhood water tanker for the last miles of delivery, so that the long lines of people queued up with their water jugs can slake their thirst.

    The math is horrifying if one considers that wet bulb temperature deaths can occur in six hours, but it might take two to three weeks for that crucial diesel delivery to finally arrive in your neighborhood to power aquifer pumps and emergency AC shelters powered by a diesel generator.

    It would seem India and other poor countries in hot & humid weather geographies are in for a disaster.

    Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

15. 

    Bob Shaw on March 15, 2026 at 1:19 pm

    From the Washington Examiner:

    Iran faces financial death blow because of war

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/iran-faces-financial-death-blow-because-of-war/ar-AA1YCR0U?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=69b687b481974a3598b682f16559782f&cvpid=deabf74bb90648358b263d6d2bb1a388&ei=8

    • 

      Mike B on March 15, 2026 at 1:51 pm

      I read this as “they’re desperate and will do anything now.”

      • 

        George Kaplan on March 15, 2026 at 4:14 pm

        Iran has five thousand mines and thousands of mine laying vessels disguised as fishing boats. The sixteen boats Trump claimed were destroyed were actually fast attack craft. The mine sweepers in the area were removed a few months ago. Clearing a few mines will take weeks after it has been declared safe to operate, hundreds or thousands will take over six months. If Iran feels it has nothing to lose it can completely destroy the world’s economy fairly easily.

        • 

          Survivalist on March 16, 2026 at 2:13 am

          The U.S. Navy decommissioned half of its Avenger-class mine countermeasure ships last year and began replacing them with littoral combat ships that possess anti-mine capabilities.

          https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2026/03/12/the-us-navy-decommissioned-middle-east-minesweepers-last-year-heres-what-they-did/

          • 

            George Kaplan on March 16, 2026 at 7:57 am

            “unproven in combat” is probably an important phrase there.

      • 

        Bob Shaw on March 15, 2026 at 5:01 pm

        Hi Mike B,

        Yep, timing uncertain & some areas will decline faster than others, but eventually WE will ALL be Desperate and will do Anything as Collapse spreads everywhere.

        In the meantime: the US is going to try and build a new oil refinery in Brownsville, Texas for Light, Tight Oil [LTO} from the Permian. They better not plan on the Rio Grande having lots of water.

        https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/us-to-build-first-oil-refinery-in-50-years-in-texas-trump-says/vi-AA1Yqmlr?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=69b6d53d2559469ba16ad8c6c2017349&ei=19
        ————————

        ME: Hope they have lots of fresh aquifer water [desalination too?] & power infrastructure & a railway spur planned besides the refinery itself. Will the Permian output even last long enough to make this refinery financially viable? It may take a decade or more to get this all built and running. Is the USA of fifty states still a viable concept in 10 years?

        Lastly, would it not be much cheaper and faster just to massively upgrade the Corpus Christi refineries and other petrochemical processors?

        Hell if I know!

16. 

    Rob on March 15, 2026 at 6:51 pm

    My Cassandrish pronouncement From the “War on Christmas” post:

    Thus do we now sit facing the New Year with the specter of religious zealotry and its Siamese twin, totalitarian rule, firmly ensconced in the seat of power, its days in the shadows past. Soon Enough they will embroil the globe, yet again, in a paroxysm of astounding destruction so as to rule in the darkness that will descend in its wake.

    The One True god to rule them all,
    The One god to blind them,
    One god to bring them all,
    And in the darkness, bind them,
    In the Holy Land, where even the Shadows lie.

    Bush’s incursions lead directly to the Furor’s excursion, which has had, even as the smoke swirled toward the heavens from the “I’d take out the families” (and he doesn’t mean for a taco) President, a whiff of Carthage to it.

    https://robertlowrey.blogspot.com/2024/12/war-on-christmas.html

17. 

    Bob Shaw on March 15, 2026 at 7:28 pm

    The Honest Sorcerer’s latest. Balazs Matics is an excellent writer…

    ME: Buckle up, Buttercup! because this is going to be a wild ride down the steep Seneca Collapse ramp!!!
    —————————

    The New Gulf War: Epic Fubar Goes Global

    Why there is much more at stake here than rising prices

    The Honest Sorcerer Mar 13, 2026

    “He who controls the spice, controls the universe”—said one character in the movie Dune, highlighting the vital importance of ‘spice’ in space travel and the empire’s survival.

    The same is equally true to the flow of crude oil on our planet: it is the vital substance feeding, moving, building and now destroying the world. Without it our civilization goes bust, and rather quickly.

    Those who have the power to interrupt its flow thus control, if not the Universe, but the fate of the world economy for sure. And while many commentators fixate on the price of oil and the effect it has on inflation or GDP, they completely miss the point. There is much-much more at stake here than how much you pay at the pump—we are looking at shortages potentially far worse and far more disrupting than what we saw during and after the COVID crisis.

    Buckle up ‘cause this is going to be a wild ride….

    https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-new-gulf-war-epic-fubar-goes
    ———————–
    Bob Shaw  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

    • 

      Mike B on March 15, 2026 at 11:21 pm

      Well, sh*t. It sounds as if we’re f*c*e*

18. 

    TR on March 16, 2026 at 3:26 am

    To all Dems, Independents, Progressives & anyone in the U.S. that pay taxes & laughingly opposes the Iranian attack. Thank you for buying the military, weapons that helped kill Iranian girl at school.

    Handling the truth can be a difficult reality even when the motto is. “It’s not my fault.” I didn’t know that my taxes helped kill people.

    Pop quiz tomorrow. To what word does this definition apply?
    1. The practice of professing beliefs, feelings, or virtues that one does not hold or possess; falseness.