Huge thanks to my February sponsor, John Rember, author of the three-book series Journal of the Plague Years, a psychic survival guide for humanity’s looming date with destiny, shaped by his experiences living through the pandemic in his native Idaho. Thoughtful, wry and humane, Journal 1 is a pleasure.
“Hey everybody! It’s mid-month global mean surface temperature snapshot time!
“And yes, that’s right, do not adjust your television: at the height of the current La Nina, 2026 year-to-date is more than 1.51°C over the pre-industrial baseline.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2023048514700521505
“Upper-ocean heat content data for January showed that the West Pacific Warm Pool was ninth warmest on record, despite a chunk of its heat already being discharged eastward.
“This warmth raises the ceiling on the potential strength of El Niño later this year.”
[Ben Noll]
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2023404500044959928
“A Greenland sled dog champion fears for his culture as climate change melts the ice…
“For more than a thousand years, dogs have pulled sleds across the Arctic for Inuit seal hunters and fishermen. But this winter, in the town of Ilulissat, around 300km (186 miles) north of the Arctic Circle, that’s not possible.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/donald-trump-greenland-arctic-unesco-antarctica-b2921625.html
“‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating…
“Such a dramatic rise in temperatures – the prospect of which has left some leading climate scientists feeling hopeless – would be double the level of global heating that world leaders promised to aim for when they signed the Paris agreement in 2015.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/16/europe-climate-advisory-board-3c-global-heating
“UK at risk of more flooding ‘for months to come’ after record-breaking January…
“The monthly statistics from the UKCEH confirm that Northern Ireland and the southwest of England had their wettest January on record, with 170% of their normal rainfall.”
“Why is sewage spilling into homes and gardens? [UK]
“While each incident has its own trigger, water companies say most sewer flooding is caused by a small number of factors, including blocked pipes, ageing infrastructure and drainage systems overwhelmed by heavy rain.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr45641y742o
“Record flooding across France as storms fall on saturated ground.
“Storms have left large parts of France underwater, with record levels of flooding after heavy rain fell on already saturated soil. In Paris, the Seine is four metres above its normal level, forcing the closure of the riverside motorway and some commuter rail stations.”
“Malaga emergency: strong winds fuel bush fire in urban industrial area [Spain].
“…the fire originated in some bushes and the strong winds are hampering extinguishing efforts. The emergency services received at least ten calls reporting the fire around 1.30pm on Monday. The smoke was visible from several parts of the city.”
“Italy’s Lovers’ Arch Collapses In Storm On Valentine’s Day…
“For centuries, the arch had stood as a symbol of romance and enduring love, drawing in thousands of couples, tourists, and hopeful romantics from across the globe. Its sudden disappearance has left locals and visitors alike reeling…”
https://evrimagaci.org/gpt/italys-lovers-arch-collapses-in-storm-on-valentines-day-529677
“Severe Storms Split Roads, Set Rainfall Record in Corfu.
“Heavy storms have caused widespread flooding, landslides, and road collapses across western and northern Greece, including record rainfall in Corfu, prompting emergency closures and safety warnings for residents and travelers.”
https://www.tovima.com/society/severe-storms-split-roads-set-rainfall-record-in-corfu/
“Antalya endures a year’s rainfall in single 40-day stretch [Turkey]…
“For nearly six weeks, these intermittent but intense downpours have ravaged homes, workplaces and greenhouses, prompting local authorities to launch urgent damage assessment efforts across the region. Heavy rain also triggered landslides and road collapses.”
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/antalya-endures-a-years-rainfall-in-single-40-day-stretch-218975
“Cyprus appeals to residents to cut water use by two minutes a day amid drought.
“Authorities in Cyprus have urged residents to reduce their water intake by 10% – the equivalent of two minutes’ use of running water each day – as Europe’s most south-easterly nation grapples with a once-in-a century drought.”
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN AFRICA – 44c [111.2F] at Bokoro, in CHAD; 37c again in ALGERIA.
“Records have been falling for weeks everywhere in North and Central Africa and it will get worse.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2023104259299164639
“Central Africa Urged to Unite on Early Warnings as Climate Risks Escalate…
“WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo delivered a clear message: fragmented approaches must give way to coordinated, science-driven action. “We cannot afford not to work together,” she said…”
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN MOZAMBIQUE:
“42.0C [107.6F] at Beira right on the coast, it smashed its February heat record by 3C. It’s one of the most extreme heat events ever seen in Southern African tropics.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2022748931558686835
“Madagascar cyclone death toll rises to 59…
“It is the latest in a string of tropical storms to batter the southern African island in recent months, underscoring its vulnerability to increasingly extreme weather fuelled by climate change… Most of the fatalities were reported in the port city of Toamasina on the east coast, formerly known as Tamata.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260216-madagascar-cyclone-death-toll-rises-to-59
“Fourth straight day of heavy air pollution as decades-old heat records broken in Israel.
“Temperatures topped 32°C [89.6F] in several areas, with mid-February records set in the Judean foothills, as dust from Jordan pushed pollution to very high levels nationwide.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/environment/article/h1y11jhxubl
“HISTORIC DAY in Middle East:
“Unprecedented heat for this time of the year with 37C [98.6F] Minagish KUWAIT, 36 Al Wafra, 35 Kuwait Int. AP; Record hot nights everywhere – min. 23.3 in Israel; first tropical night in February at Al Qaysumah SAUDI ARABIA.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2022692160802595045
“Iraqi MPs push Baghdad to curb escalating water shortages.
“On Sunday, lawmakers from Dhi Qar province, southern Iraq, called for an emergency water plan, urging the government to use economic leverage to pressure Turkiye to increase Iraq’s water allocations.”
https://shafaq.com/en/society/Iraqi-MPs-push-Baghdad-to-curb-escalating-water-shortages
“This is [central Asian] Russia; this is 1016m asl; this is February and it’s 25C [77F]: Shorts, t-shirts and flips flops…
“WORLD RECORDS are being broken with temperatures reaching 33C [91.4F] on the Caspian Sea. Above July averages.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2023381768569856467
“Water scarcity looms for Madhesh residents as wells run dry [Nepal]…
“Activists have protested, held sit-ins, and walked to Kathmandu to demand federal action. But continued encroachment and unregulated exploitation are lowering groundwater levels, turning fertile Madhesh soil into barren land…”
“Hong Kong records hottest Lunar New Year’s Eve on record at 27.9°C [82.2F].
“By around noon, temperatures across the territory generally rose to 26 degrees or above. As of 1.50pm, the Observatory recorded a maximum of 27.9 degrees, making it the hottest Lunar New Year’s Eve since records began and breaking the 27.8-degree record set in 1953.”
“RECORD HEAT IN JAPAN – 19.8C [67.6F] Toimi on Sunday broke its February record of highest temperature. More record heat is expected next week
“From Spain to Japan through Mediterranean, North Africa, Middle East, Central & East Asia every single country except Italy has been breaking records.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2023219901117390856
“Korea prepares for growth in subtropical crops…
““In a situation where subtropical fruit cultivation is rapidly expanding due to climate change, the heating energy demand prediction system will serve as a key foundation for reducing management uncertainty for farmers and enabling scientific management of energy use,” Kim said.”
https://www.fruitnet.com/asiafruit/korea-prepares-for-growth-in-subtropical-crops/270584.article
“Extreme rainfall is worsening algal blooms along South Korea’s coast.
“A new multi-year study, published in Frontiers in Marine Science, tracked water quality in and around a major river estuary and shows how intense downpours can shift where and when these blooms appear, with consequences for marine ecosystems and coastal communities.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-02-extreme-rainfall-worsening-algal-blooms.html
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN SE ASIA. Record heat is all over Asia in every single country…
“39.3C [102.7F] in Thailand, 33C again in Taiwan, records in Indonesia, Philippines, Myanmar, Laos.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2023375987812233506
“Forests are drying up and fires flaring up to the south of Chiang Mai [Thailand].
“…fires have begun spreading into the southern part of Chiang Mai over the past 1–2 weeks, moving north from Tak and Lamphun provinces. The most serious situation is currently in Doi Tao district and parts of Ob Luang National Park.”
“Riau declares emergency alert for forest fires Riau Police chief spokesman. [Indonesia]
“Sr. Comr. Zahwani Pandra Arsyad said all regional police forces had been instructed to increase patrols and surveillance in regions prone to forest fires to prevent them from spreading.”
“Massive Sinkhole Devours Farmland In Indonesia, Farmers Fear More Collapse…
“Central Aceh Regent Haili Yoga said the ground instability dates back years but accelerated after major flooding in late 2025… Geologists say the underlying mix of volcanic tuff and sand absorbs groundwater easily…”
“The southern Indian Ocean off the west coast of Australia is becoming less salty at an astonishing rate, largely due to climate change, new research shows…
“”We’re seeing a large-scale shift of how freshwater moves through the ocean,” said Weiqing Han, professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-02-ocean-saltiest-regions-freshening-circulation.html
“Australian fire authorities say currents tools and methods not adequate to keep up with bushfires.
“Australia’s leading fire authorities are warning that the country’s bushfire detection and suppression systems must be radically modernized, arguing that climate‑driven fire behaviour is now outpacing traditional response models…”
“‘Too late to leave’: Victorian towns told to take shelter.
“Emergency services have issued the ultimate warning to three communities trapped by bushfire: ‘You are in danger and need to act immediately to survive.’ Three central Victorian communities have been told it is too late to flee as an out-of-control bushfire burns amid extreme fire conditions across the state.”
“New Zealand hit by storms and widespread floods.
“[The storm’s] arrival came after days of widespread flooding in the Ōtorohanga district, where a man was found dead after his vehicle became submerged in flood waters. Some areas recorded more than 100mm of rain in 24 hours on Thursday”
“Beyond the beaches, Wellington’s catastrophic sewage spill could be bad news for coastal ecosystems.
“Public concern over the total failure of the Moa Point wastewater treatment plant on Wellington’s south coast has been growing, despite this week’s announcement of an independent review.”
“Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming…
“A first threshold, potentially as low as 1–2 °C above pre-industrial levels, triggers the long-term collapse of ~40% of marine ice volume in West Antarctica.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02554-0
“HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN SOUTH AMERICA:
“It’s like a never ending record heat with records broken and rebroken continuously, especially Between Bolivia and Paraguay. Today 39.7C [103.5] at Puerto Suarez, BOLIVIA: hottest February day in history.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2023597259993071771
“Amazon rainforest flipped to carbon source during 2023 extreme drought, study shows…
“In 2023, the region experienced unusually high temperatures, reaching 1.5°C above the 1991–2020 average, accompanied by unusual levels of atmospheric dryness from September to November. These conditions were caused by warmer water temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans…”
https://phys.org/news/2026-02-amazon-rainforest-flipped-carbon-source.html
“Temperatures up to 40° above normal Tuesday across the Nation’s middle [US].
“For example: Omaha NWS calling for 76°!! Normal high is 39°. Heat spreads east this week. Hundreds of records in jeopardy!” [Jeff Berardelli]
https://bsky.app/profile/weatherprof.bsky.social/post/3meznrz5l4c2u
“Colorado sets record for warmest winter days as state braces for a blizzard and extreme fire danger.
“Colorado set a record this week for the most 60-degree days in a single winter season, and forecasters say the state’s wild weather is far from over. Blizzard warnings in the mountains and extreme fire danger on the Eastern Plains are expected on Tuesday.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/colorado-sets-record-warmest-winter-013328077.html
“As a Colorado River deadline passes, reservoirs keep declining…
“Officials for the seven states have tried to boost reservoir levels via voluntary water cutbacks and federal payments to farmers who agree to leave fields dry part of the year. But after more than two years of trying to hash out new long-term rules for sharing water, they remain deadlocked…”
https://phys.org/news/2026-02-colorado-river-deadline-reservoirs-declining.html
“We say snowmageddon as a joke, but if ever there was a time to use it, it’s now!!
“Watch as the West Coast gets bombarded by at least 5 storms in 15 days, with up to 15 feet of snow in the high Sierra, and that may be an underestimate if the models verify. NWS says 8 feet possible by Wednesday. Incredible!” [Jeff Berardelli]
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2023194350138617970
“High temperatures and low snowpack may mean less water for Nebraska this summer…
“Rivers like the Platte River rely on mountain snowmelt, with 60% to 80% of its annual streamflow coming from snowpack in Colorado and Wyoming. Johnson said the biggest concern is not the initial spring melt, but what will happen later in the season.”
“Data Centers Push Great Lakes Region to the Brink…
“The biggest data centers consume more than 365 million gallons of water annually, and data center water usage in the US tripled between 2014 and 2023, placing enormous strain on regional water resources.”
“Weeks after Toronto’s record snowfall, some residents are still struggling to use sidewalks…
“In a statement to CBC Toronto, a spokesperson for the city said snow removal is an “intense, multi-step process” that includes many crews and heavy machinery. “Crews continue to remove snow on bikeways, narrow residential streets and sidewalks,” Jas Baweja said.”
https://www.cbc.ca/lite/story/9.7091852
“Turtles breeding earlier, but half as often, due to climate change.
“The researchers found that warmer sea surface temperatures cause turtles to arrive and nest earlier in the season. However, the decline of ocean productivity along their West African feeding grounds, has meant females are taking longer breaks between seasons.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
“‘Too late to leave’: Victorian towns told to take shelter.”
I expect this inability to escape surrounding flames to become the norm in the future when FFs become unaffordable. No av-fuel for helicopters & water bombers, no diesel for fire trucks & water pumps, no electricity to pressurize fire hydrants, no gasoline to provide rapid vehicular escape at a scale sufficient to save most lives.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
>>> Why is sewage spilling into homes and gardens?
>>> Wellington’s catastrophic sewage spill could be bad news
Ya Bob, I guess we’ll just have to douse the flames with sewage filled water by hand. Yikes.
Hello Flippr,
Sometimes the floods and sewage water rise so high that you cannot put out the flames with equipment when the hydrants are underwater and not pressurized or by hand:
—————————-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Red_River_flood
…The river crested at 54 feet in Grand Forks. Grand Forks mayor Pat Owens had to order the evacuation of more than 50,000 people, most of the population of the city, as a huge area was flooded. A large fire started in downtown Grand Forks, engulfing eleven buildings and sixty apartment units before being extinguished.
—————————
video of fire during flood, fire eventually extinguished by helicopters
https://globalnews.ca/news/3383532/timeline-of-1997-flood-in-grand-forks-north/
“I expect this inability to escape surrounding flames to become the norm in the future when FFs become unaffordable.”
We will indeed have a global “let-burn” policy by default, Bob. Imagine Australia’s “Black Summer” or Canada’s record-breaking fire season of 2023 turbo-charged by further warming and with no containment options.
“Data Centers Push Great Lakes Region to the Brink…”
The article doesn’t provide a source for this astounding data fact:
——————–
Agriculture is a major consumer of water in the region, but the energy industry is the largest consumer and growing larger all the time…
—————
ME: Holy-Moley, that is news to me. Hard to imagine that energy providers & data centers use more pumped water than the total square miles of irrigated cropland around the Great Lakes.
Sure, it rains/snows on these croplands, but it also rains/snows on the much, much larger watershed of the entire Great Lakes. At what point will the combo of CC & Modernity water usage reduce the flow of the Saint Lawrence Seaway so that shipping becomes reduced just like barge shipping on the Mississippi River a few years ago?
It’s very important to consider what happens to water “consumed” by energy, ag, data centres etc. In most cases it returns to the water table, evaporates, transpires, is exported in crops (lettuce is 95% water). Thermal power plants typically use surface water and return most of it, with minimal impact on the water table. Drawings for agriculture are huge and not well regulated.
A typical gravel pit or golf course or sod farm in Ontario (see link) may have rights to draw a million to ten million litres/day. The “huge” data centre drawing of *365 million gallons a year* is, conveniently, a million gallons per day – most likely then, this is a blunt estimate of permitted drawings, not actual use. I imagine this is almost all for cooling and returned to the water table continuously, though it may be drained to outside the area (which IMO is really dumb).
In my locale (c. 700k humans) there’s a temporary (indefinite) halt on building because the last few decades of turning farmland into housing zones means the water is drained straight to the river rather than percolating into the ground, and so the aquifer is declining. (And people are surprised, even though it’s happening everywhere.)
Interestingly, for decades we’ve been pumping water from the Grand River back up onto the fields where it can percolate back into the aquifer. The pumped amount makes up some 20% of our municipal water supply, though there seems to be no real monitoring of what the golf courses, gavel pits, and farms take. The permitted amounts are enormous.
https://www.ontario.ca/page/map-permits-take-water
Shane, thank you – that is very interesting.
“I imagine this is almost all for cooling and returned to the water table continuously, though it may be drained to outside the area (which IMO is really dumb).”
Some data centres and the power plants that power them will use evaporative cooling, so at least some water will fall as rain elsewhere. The paper linked in the article suggests that that mythical beast, the green transition, is part of the impending supply-squeeze:
“Fueled by a transition to greener and cleaner technologies, the water intensive critical minerals mining industry will also require large volumes of water.”
https://greatlakes.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/AGL_WaterUse_Report_Aug2025_Final.pdf
Thanks Pan. I was not aware how common evaporative cooling is in data centres, even while far more water-efficient options exist – the attached says 80% of the water evaporates (is consumed) in the process (@ 500ml/prompt). Generating the electricity (@ 1.2 gal/kWh US avg.) and manufacturing the IT chips using ultrapure water (@ “thousands of gallons per chip”) are also big contributors. https://www.eesi.org/articles/view/data-centers-and-water-consumption
From the Guardian article on adapting to 3 degrees”
“It is a daunting task, but at the same time quite a doable task” and “And for a number of risks, we’ll reach the limits of adaptation.” can some one explain how those two quotes by the same person aren’t mutually exclusive.
Adapting to 3 degrees by 2100 without considering any other constraints is not the reality we face, which is: 3 degrees by 2050, with a collapsed economy, everywhere and forever wars, a much worse hydrologic cycle than anyone has considered, four billion dead or dying and four billion refugees, collapsing and disappearing biomes, rule by mob/sociopaths/clowns (take your pick), little or no oil or gas available for import, etc.
George, your thoughts mirror my own on this. Doable it is not.
“Daunting but doable” – that’s what she said before she closed her eyes and jumped into bed with you.
Adaptation to 3C does not apply to the second word.
I’ll be here all week.
It’s doable, and by doable I mean 3 billion people starving out and thrashing about.
😂
Collapse and the Consensus Trap
https://adrianlambert.substack.com/p/collapse-and-the-consensus-trance
Thanks. Very well laid out, despite the hopium near the end: “Breaking ambivalence does not mean dwelling in despair. It means remembering that collapse is not only destruction but disclosure. It exposes the failure of the stories we inherited and creates the conditions for renewal: regenerating soils, restoring ecosystems, reweaving human–Earth relationships.”
Thanks, Duke, that is a great piece. He articulates so much of what those of us in the doomosphere intuit about the unacceptability of our worldview.
In my more confused moments, that internalised taboo makes me feel that predicting the fall of civilisation is a betrayal of my loved ones.
Here’s a nice global temperature dashboard: https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/
Thanks, Flippr. That is nifty.
Unintented consequences . Estonia runs iut of firewood .
https://news.err.ee/1609942667/dry-firewood-in-estonia-all-sold-out-as-deep-winter-freeze-continues
Also it says “Briquettes and pellets also require a high input of electricity in their production, hence these being in short supply too,”
Not too “sustainable”!
Thanks, Ravi. Another oddity in that part of the world:
“The level of the Baltic Sea has this month fallen to its lowest level on record, reports the Institute of Oceanography at the Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN – I’m liking the acronym 😎)…
““In the first weeks of February 2026, the Baltic Sea experienced an unprecedented drop in water levels – average levels are now nearly 67cm below the norm, [which is] the lowest reading since systematic observations began in 1886,” wrote the institute on social media.”
https://notesfrompoland.com/2026/02/16/baltic-sea-at-lowest-level-since-records-began/
Just wait until pathogens are uncovered in open ice-less melted permafrost geographies that could be spread easily. This species is The Master of Destruction.
https://gizmodo.com/bacteria-frozen-inside-5000-year-old-ice-cave-is-crazy-resistant-to-antibiotics-2000723002
The five major reservoirs on the Colorado river reaching dead pool is gonna be a hell of a new normal.
An entire region is going to become a ghost town.