Huge thanks to my February sponsor, John Rember, author of the three-book series Journal of the Plague Years, a psychic survival guide for humanity’s looming date with destiny, shaped by his experiences living through the pandemic in his native Idaho. Thoughtful, wry and humane, Journal 1 is a pleasure.
“National security plans must adapt to avoid ‘new world disorder’, says UN climate chief…
“The warnings came as a draft of a key agenda for the Cop31 climate conference omitted to mention fossil fuels, and skewed instead to the interests of the Turkish hosts, such as waste management and tourism.”
“Sustainable Burnout: Global Conflicts Eclipsing Climate Change Concerns.
“A Kantar study reveals emerging eco-fatigue and challenges retailers to move from pledges to action. Wars, insecurity, and economic concerns overshadow climate in consumer priorities, yet their demands on brands remain unwavering.”
“As of Feb. 10, 2026, the planet is tied for 2nd hottest on record, at 1.64°C above the 1850-1900 IPCC pre-industrial baseline.
“The Climate 8-ball says, “El Nino? We don’t need no stinkin’ El Nino!”” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2021967876698292435
“Back in 2021, we warned of a potential Aerosol Termination Shock from rapidly reduced pollution over the oceans.
“Based on NASA satellite data, it’s even worse than we feared. It takes heat and therefore time to warm the oceans and for the regional and global climate to change.”
[Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/2021946424590586163
“…NASA observations reveal a steady shrinkage of cloud cover, which is deeply worrying.
“Loss of the tropical stratocumulus cloud decks is predicted to result in a cataclysmic 8C hike.” [Prof Bill McGuire]
https://x.com/ProfBillMcGuire/status/2022316824143000027
“Arctic peatlands are expanding as temperatures continue to rise, new research confirms…
“Given that the study covered a broad range of Arctic conditions—with 91 samples from 12 sites in the European and Canadian Arctic—the researchers say peatland expansion is likely to be happening across the Arctic.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-02-arctic-peatlands-temperatures.html
“‘I kayaked Greenland’s ‘pristine’ waters. What I found was terrifying’…
“Jensen kayaked to one of the most “isolated corners of the Arctic”, located hundreds of kilometres from any kind of road. He expected to find fibres and general plastic debris – which he did – but Jensen also stumbled across traces of car tire particles in his samples.”
“‘Seasons have become confused’: the people struggling in UK’s relentless rain…
“The prolonged wet weather is disrupting livelihoods as well as daily life, particularly in rural areas, where flooded roads, waterlogged ground and repeated storms are making it harder to keep businesses afloat, protect crops and maintain steady work.”
“‘The only thing I own is gone’: Clongriffin residents see vehicles submerged by torrential rain [Ireland]…
““We didn’t know where to turn. We’re left here. We pay very high rent to live here. I have an ESG [exceptional social grounds] application in with Dublin City Council. I can’t afford my rent … it goes up every single year. I’ve tried absolutely everything.”
“Storm Nils caused deaths, major flooding and mass power cuts in France.
“France is grappling with the aftermath of Storm Nils, as several regions remain under threat of flooding. Portugal and Spain have also been affected by a series of storms that have swept across the Iberian peninsula in recent weeks.”
“Portugal urged to adapt to climate emergency after series of deadly storms.
“Portugal is under pressure to draw up plans to adapt to the climate emergency as the country continues to be lashed by an unprecedented series of storms that have killed at least 16 people and left tens of thousands without electricity.”
“BREAKING: Montejaque ‘ghost dam’ begins spilling water after reaching capacity for first time in a century [Spain]…
“Residents across the Serrania de Ronda have been on tenterhooks over the past week as torrential storms pushed the century-old dam to breaking point, fuelling fears that millions of litres of rain could gush into the valley below.”
“Alicante Records Hottest Winter Day Since Records Began as Temperatures Hit 27C [80.6F].
“What’s particularly striking is that four of the five warmest winter days ever recorded in the Valencian Community have all occurred between 2021 and 2026.”
“UNBELIEVABLE WARMTH IN SPAIN – 3RD CONSECUTIVE TROPICAL NIGHT; never happened in winter in European history.
“RECORDS HIGH MINIMUMS FOR FEB: 19.5 [67.1F] Castellon; 18.9 Valencia AP; 18.5 Alicante; 14.8 Gijon; 13.0 Zaragoza AP; 12.4 Albacete 12.8 Airbase; 12.6 Granada Airbase; 12.4 Ciudad Real.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2021897443374510341
“Eternal City eternally damp as Rome suffers record rainfall…
“Persistent bad weather has dogged the whole of Italy since the start of the year, with storms causing huge damage and disruption. Rome itself has seen near-daily downpours in February after a record amount of rain last month.”
“Sardinia is hit by severe weather: the alert remains in effect, and the Civil Protection Department is meeting with mayors and other agencies to address the emergency….
“The wave of severe weather continuing to batter Sardinia continues unabated . The island, still reeling from the damage caused by Cyclone Harry and its “tailwind” faces new challenges…”
“Morocco to spend more than $300 million on flood recovery.
“Morocco plans to spend some $330 million on regions hit hardest by weeks of flooding across the country’s north that have battered its key agricultural zones, the government said Thursday.”
https://www.africanews.com/amp/2026/02/13/morocco-to-spend-more-than-300-million-on-flood-recovery/
“EXTRAORDINARY – CLIMATIC HISTORY REWRITTEN. Hundreds of records smashed all over North Africa. Summer temperatures up to 37C [98.6F] and tropical nights.
“MOROCCO 29.8 Ouarzarzate 1100m asl; Records of high minimums smashed in pieces everywhere in Morocco. Algeria and Tunisia with Mins 16/20C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2022016594059440593
“Are African ‘water wars’ on the horizon as African Union puts the issue on its agenda?
“…“Water is life,” said Sanusha Naidu, a foreign policy analyst at the South African think tank, the Institute for Global Dialogue. “But it’s not just that water is life – water is becoming a commodity of corporatisation and access. It is a humanitarian conflict. It is a climate change conflict.””
“Water shortage alert: multiple Durban suburbs face interruptions as heatwave strains supply system.
“Residents in multiple suburbs including Morningside, Glenwood, and Umlazi face several days of water interruptions as the ongoing heatwave drives exceptionally high demand. The eThekwini Municipality has deployed water tankers to affected areas…”
“Thousands of fish wash up dead at Umhlali River Mouth [South Africa]…
“Barracuda, mullet, flathead and juvenile kingfish, as well as crabs and shrimp, are among the scores of aquatic creatures annihilated overnight, coinciding with a thunderstorm. It is unclear how far upstream the issue started.”
“Madagascar cyclone death toll hits 40, 16,000 displaced; Mozambique braces…
“Gezani made landfall on Tuesday at the Indian Ocean island nation’s eastern coastal city, Toamasina, bringing winds that reached 250km/h (155mph). Madagascar’s new leader, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, has declared a national disaster and called for “international solidarity…”
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN THE INDIAN OCEAN – February Highest Minimum in history in the FRENCH SOUTHERN TERRITORIES Min. 29.5C Juan de Nova Island; 28.9C Europa Island.
Also 25.3 Mbazwana, South Africa. The area has been with continuous record heat for 12 years…”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2022260625288904804
“Sandstorm worsens conditions for displaced Palestinians in Gaza…
“The storm, carrying dust and strong winds from North Africa, has battered makeshift camps where thousands remain sheltering in tents following two years of Israeli military operations that left widespread destruction across the enclave.”
https://anewz.tv/region/middle-east/18073/sandstorm-adds-to-hardships-in-war-ravaged-gaza/news
“Killer heatwaves are increasingly likely in the Gulf – but AI can save lives…
“Heatwaves are set to become more common and more intense, a study from Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi found. It investigated the devastating June 2024 heatwave in Makkah, when temperatures soared to 51.8°C and more than 1,300 Hajj pilgrims died.”
“Today MINIMUM 17.6C [63.7F] Sekhertabad 600m asl ties the TURKMENISTAN HOTTEST FEBRUARY NIGHT IN HISTORY.
“This is just the appetizer to what’s coming. Thousands of records pulverized from the Black Sea to Hokkaido.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2021937075311005772
“Climate change is driving rising agricultural water use in Central Asia.
“A new study by IAMO researchers shows that rising temperatures and atmospheric water demand now outweigh land-use changes. As a result, the pressure on already scarce water resources is growing in one of the world’s most water-stressed regions.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-02-climate-agricultural-central-asia.html
“Iran’s Water Crisis: A National Security Imperative…
“As environmental decline accelerates, water scarcity risks transforming from an episodic trigger of unrest into a sustained driver of domestic tension and center–periphery conflict, challenging both local livelihoods and national cohesion.”
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/irans-water-crisis-a-national-security-imperative/
“Water scarcity makes new dams impossible: minister [Pakistan].
“Sindh Minister for Irrigation Jam Khan Shoro has said that construction of new water reservoirs is not possible in the prevailing situation of water scarcity, adding that even under the 1991 Water Accord provinces are not receiving their full share of water while the sea is also deprived of its due flow.”
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2592459/water-scarcity-makes-new-dams-impossible-minister
“Escalating Forest Fires in Jammu: A Call for Action [India].
“Jammu region has seen over 1,760 forest fire incidents affecting 4,100 hectares from FY 2023-24 to January 2026. The issue has intensified over the years, with preventive measures and response strategies urgently needed. Key divisions severely impacted include East and West Jammu, and Chenab.”
“Today, 7 stations in China broke or tied their mid-February warmest records, and 2 stations broke their February Tmin records!
“Temperatures in China are expected to continue rising tomorrow, with dozens of stations breaking mid-February or even full-month records!” [Jim Yang]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/2022321432655802760
“How China became fixated on cloud seeding…
“Snowie’s results indicated the output of cloud seeding is ultimately underwhelming… And while cloud seeding has been shown elsewhere to work to some extent, even scientists who have seen the results firsthand are unsure if it works well enough to be worth the effort.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20260203-why-china-is-pushing-controversial-cloud-seeding-tech
“Fierce heat wave in THAILAND with days with 37C/39C every day (remember it’s the cold season).
“The hill village of Pakchong with 37.0C [98.6F] today broke its record of February hottest day. The heat will get worse.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2022288969707507880
“Government deploys aircraft to battle Sakaerat Fire in Nakhon Ratchasima, with 10 water-bombing missions [Thailand].
“The wildfire, which started around 8:40 PM on February 12, 2026, has spread across nearly 4,000 rai of land, primarily in the eucalyptus forest near the Sakaerat station. Despite efforts to contain it, the fire quickly spread…”
https://www.nationthailand.com/news/general/40062516
“Fresh floods devastate Central Tapanuli two months after deadly cyclone [Sumatra, Indonesia].
“The flooding damaged two emergency river levees in Tukka and Barus districts and washed away two temporary bridges in Sibabangun and Tapian Nauli, cutting off access to at least four villages.”
“All eyes on rivers after 8 rescued in floodwaters, 200mm+ drenching [Queensland and NT, Australia].
“As of February 14, 2026, severe weather and heavy rainfall, exceeding 200mm [8 inches] in some areas, have triggered flash flooding, road closures, and multiple emergency rescues across parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory in Australia.”
https://news.az/news/flash-floods-force-road-closures-in-australia-s-queensland
“Record-breaking temperatures this summer have left some growers without flowers for Valentine’s Day [Victoria]…
“Natalie Thomson cannot bring herself to photograph what last month’s heatwave did to her micro flower farm in Nyah West… But neither she nor her plants were prepared for the record-breaking temperatures experienced last month.”
“Record heat again in PALAU – February hottest night in history tied at Koror with a Minimum temperature of 80F/26.7C.
“Reminder: Palau fully uses Fahr. degrees for every purpose, just like the USA, Marshall Islands and Micronesia.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2022283009840525569
“US pressures Vanuatu at UN over ICJ’s landmark climate change ruling…
“A US State Department cable seen by Al Jazeera on Saturday says that the Trump administration “strongly objects” to the proposed resolution being circulated by the Pacific island nation of Vanuatu in support of last year’s ruling by the ICJ…”
“Fiji Meteorological Service raises coral bleaching alert to highest level…
“The Fiji Met Service warns that extended heat stress may result in fish mortality, disruption of marine food chains, reduced reef growth and recovery, and declining reef fish populations. Coastal communities could also face reduced fish catch…”
“Jellyfish invade Mar del Plata beaches and link the phenomenon to sea warming [Argentina].
“According to recent measurements, the sea is several degrees above the historical average for this time of year. Records exceeded 22 °C [71.6F] compared to usual values of around 19 °C.”
“PARAGUAY HEAT WAVE – 41.0C [105.8F] yesterday the final max. at Quyquyho – New record for February.
“Centro Meteorologico Nacional in Asuncion Min 29.2 Max 41.0 Hottest February day and night on record.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2022245100370419828
“Sao Paulo Battles Floods and Drought At the Same Time [Brazil]…
“Water in the region’s largest reservoir network is hovering at 32%, the lowest since the region endured its worst water crisis in 2014 and 2015, and is due to dip lower as the dry season approaches. Meanwhile, the Brazilian city has been battered in recent weeks by intense storms…”
“Why Indigenous Groups Are Targeting Brazil’s Booming Grain Trade…
“In global crop powerhouse Brazil, major farming groups supported new laws that made it easier to fast-track roads and riverways crossing the Amazon rainforest. Now, they are facing the backlash in a crucial shipping route for corn and soybean exports.”
“Colombia declares emergency as deadly floods displace thousands.
“Water submerged homes after a dam and rivers overflowed in Cordoba, one of the worst-hit departments, where more than 150,000 residents have been affected… The emergency decree allows President Gustavo Petro to take special measures to address the crisis…”
https://www.trtworld.com/article/93351ff3b550/amp
“Mexican Caribbean Faces Record Sargassum Accumulation in 2026: Growing Environmental and Tourism Crisis…
“Sargassum not only affects the aesthetics of the beaches. Its accumulation and decomposition on the coast cause: Reduction of oxygen in the water, damaging coral reefs and seagrass beds. Release of hydrogen sulfide, a gas that causes respiratory discomfort and unpleasant odors…”
“Insane and unprecedented heat in Mexico:
“35C [95F] at 1600m asl (Cuernavaca), 30C at 2300m asl (Tulacingo). Absolutely unprecedented for this time of the year; temperatures typical of April.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2021783268623069435
“The vaquita porpoise population is hovering near extinction.
“…only found in the Gulf of California, Mexico, according to the Marine Mammal Center, they are characterized by their dark gray color and unique dorsal fin. Currently, fewer than 20 vaquita porpoises remain in this world.”
https://www.thelamron.com/news/the-vaquita-porpoise-population-is-hovering-near-extinction
“Western US states fail to negotiate crucial Colorado River deal: ‘Mother nature isn’t going to bail us out’.
“Negotiators disbanded on Friday without a plan for the basin supplying water to 40m people, thrusting the region into uncertainty… In the region where water has long been the source of survival and conflict, the challenges that hindered consensus were as steep as the stakes are high.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/13/colorado-river-crucial-deadline
“The hidden impact of polluted snow.
“As Canada experiences record snowfall, new research from the University of Waterloo suggests that tiny amounts of industrial pollution trapped in snow can change how sunlight reaches the ground below and significantly alter fragile environments.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-02-hidden-impact-polluted.html
“Businesses must take responsibility for biodiversity loss – for their sake as much as ours…
“From healthy rivers to productive forests, the natural world underpins almost all economic activity. But human consumption of the Earth’s resources is unsustainable, driving what many scientists believe is the largest loss of life since the dinosaurs.”
“Polluting the environment for all eternity—and still sticking our heads in the sand…
“Goal 7 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework states that plastic pollution must be eliminated by 2030 to protect biodiversity. The question is simple: why are we not following up with measures that make a real difference?“
https://phys.org/news/2026-02-polluting-environment-eternity-sand.html
“Scientists warn climate models are missing a key ocean player…
“Tiny marine plankton that build calcium carbonate shells play an outsized role in regulating Earth’s climate… New research shows these microscopic engineers are largely missing from the climate models used to forecast our planet’s future, meaning scientists may be underestimating how the ocean responds to climate change.“
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/02/260208011024.htm
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Saturday with an “Economic” thread.
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/la-fase-final-del-ciclo-alcista-y
Quark’s essay on debt is a doozy today, a few excerpts:
– In just six years we have increased the global debt by no less than almost 90 trillion dollars. Making matters worse, growth of global debt in nine months in 2025 has reached $28 trillion, up to $346 trillion.
– Investments in AI and data centers are beyond imagination. Just a handful of companies are going to invest $700 billion (including a 100-year bond issue by Alphabet).
– When authorities are forced to generate new debt just to pay the interest on old debt, we enter a vicious cycle that spirals out of control.
– The only thing we don’t know is the exact time of the explosion, but if it were tomorrow we wouldn’t be surprised either.
Thanks! Yes that spiral out of control explosion draws ever closer. Seatbelts, popcorn and your favorite mind altering substance!
Thank you, Flippr. That is right up my street. Here’s a rather eye-opening piece that didn’t make the cut for yesterday’s Economic thread:
“Half of public debt from advanced economies now held by nonbanks… Nonbanks include hedge funds, insurance companies and pension funds. These institutions are known as “shadow banks,” since they do not take deposits and are not subject to banking regulations…
“BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos expressed concern about how hedge funds are increasingly adopting leveraged trading strategies that use government bonds as collateral.
“The sovereign bond sell-off in the U.K. during the 2022 turmoil that led to the resignation of then-Prime Minister Liz Truss was exacerbated by nonbanks. Pension funds that had borrowed against British government bonds required additional collateral as yields surged, forcing them to sell their gilt holdings. This set off a chain reaction in the British market…”
https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/bonds/half-of-public-debt-from-advanced-economies-held-by-nonbanks-analysis
Reposting Heather’s sewage spill article from yesterday.
https://wtop.com/dc/2026/02/dc-water-ceo-addresses-community-in-wake-of-massive-sewage-spill-3/
This single crappy mess touches all our problems: debt, energy, ecology, overshoot and complexity.
Meh, WASF!
Complexity rears its head. Along with people flushing wipes down their toilets:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yW6qBA7D6_k
“It’s considered the largest spill of wastewater in U.S. history.” 😮
And E-Coli levels in the affected part of The Potomac are 100x higher than initial testing suggested, according to the video.
“The Potomac sewage spill is a disaster for river activities this year… The stench is unbearable: “It lingers on you after you leave,” says D.C. council member Charles Allen, who recently walked the site.”
https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2026/02/13/sewage-spill-potomac-river-safety-fishing-swimming-future
Here in the UK, it’s not even failing pipes spilling sewage into our waterways; our water companies are legally allowed to discharge it under some circumstances, and monitoring is lax:
“The pipe discharges three million litres of sewage and landfill leachate a day – over a billion litres a year. “That is just killing the [Roding] river for hundreds of metres downstream,” Powlesland says, wading back from the outfall…
“Across the country, he estimates, thousands of outflows could be missing from official statistics – unknown to the Environment Agency (EA) and to the water companies themselves.”
https://www.bigissue.com/news/environment/river-sewage-east-london-pollution/
Due to storm Nils we had some ‘energy problems’ 🙂 Tey are solved now.
The Colorado River is not a political problem. It is a physical problem that is being treated politically as if it were negotiable.
Forty million people, millions of hectares of agriculture, and megacities in an arid climate all depend on a hydrological system that was designed during a relatively wet period in the twentieth century. The original allocation agreements assumed water flows that were structurally higher than what the river can actually deliver over the long term. In other words, the system was financially optimistic from the outset and physically vulnerable.
Now snowfall in the Rockies is declining, evaporation is increasing, and the reservoirs are shrinking. Lake Mead and Lake Powell no longer function as comfortable buffers, but as slowly draining thermometers of system stress. Negotiators argue over percentages, but the river does not negotiate. The inflow is what it is.
The infrastructure around the Colorado is typical of the fossil growth paradigm: large dams, long canals, irrigation networks, and legal frameworks that enabled expansion in an ecologically fragile region. As long as energy was cheap and reservoirs were full, the system could grow. Cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Los Angeles have effectively become hydrological projects rather than natural settlements.
What we are now observing is characteristic of systems forced to manage increasing scarcity: more monitoring, more negotiations, more technical interventions, and more water management—without a single additional drop of water being created. Economic activity around water management rises, while the physical water flow declines.
Even more fundamental is the role of groundwater. Years of over-extraction have depleted an invisible buffer that once functioned as a stabilizer during droughts. In system terms, the resilience reserve has been exhausted. This makes the entire network more sensitive to variability in snowfall and precipitation. An aging system with a weakened buffer automatically becomes more conflict-prone.
The Colorado is no longer just a river; it is increasingly a legal, technical, and economic network—the so-called “Law of the River.” The more states, users, infrastructure, and interests are interconnected, the harder it becomes to translate physical reality into administrative decisions. Political negotiations slow down, while hydrological changes continue at their own pace. This leads to a paradox that is recognizable in nearly all energy and infrastructure systems: the dossiers grow thicker and administrative complexity expands faster than the natural carrying capacity.
The statement “Mother Nature isn’t going to bail us out” is, in essence, a sober acknowledgment of physical limits. No rainfall policy, legal compromise, or financial instrument can structurally create water in a drying basin. Technology can allocate, store, and use water more efficiently, but it cannot replace the fundamental inflow.
There is also a thermodynamic irony in the scale of the system. The larger the water network became—with reservoirs, pumps, canals, and regulations—the greater the energy and maintenance investment required to distribute a finite natural flow. Growth created a structural dependence on stable water supply, while the climate system itself became more volatile.
The Colorado River forces an uncomfortable conclusion: an economy can grow around a river, but it cannot make the river itself grow. And after that, one can hold as many meetings as one likes, with agendas built on an unresolvable and physically non-negotiable contradiction.
Thanks Zip, I’m glad you survived Nils. In regard to your excellent post, the seven states that were trying to work out a deal gave up yesterday:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/13/colorado-river-crucial-deadline
Great essay Zip!
Forty million people should each be issued two five-gallon [total 37.8 liters] water jugs, then forced to hike daily to a water tanker truck for their 82 pounds [37.2 kgs] of H2O rations.
After just one week of jugging, then lugging them home: millions will start to move North.
The storms in Europe are something else this year. Glad you survived unscathed, Zip, and thank you for the essay. The Tribes have granted the Colorado River personhood, I see – a nice sentiment but I can’t imagine it will change much.
“Indigenous tribes in the southwestern US, led by the Colorado River Indian Tribes, have granted the Colorado River legal personhood to help protect it for future generations… recognising [it] as a living, life-giving entity with rights like a person.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crmlgpnnzyxo
“the Bureau of Reclamation’s most probable forecast shows that Lake Powell could fall below 3,490 feet in elevation in December of this year. Below that elevation, the turbines in Glen Canyon Dam would be unable to generate electricity that keeps the lights on in Utah and six other states.”
If you’d like to ruin an otherwise pleasant Sunday afternoon then go and ask your favorite AI “how will shutdown of turbines at glen canyon dam impact American agricultural production?”.
Living the Nightmare together! <3
It does help to know that there are many people out there who “get it”.
Posting above: Killer heatwaves are increasingly likely in the Gulf – but AI can save lives
————-
ME: AI would say migrate away from areas forecasting killer wet-bulb temps. No point staying when there eventually won’t be enough surface water, or electricity to pump potable water & provide AC. Just common sense, no need to run a computer to tell you that you are an idiot to go religious hiking in lethal heat.
Just look at all the people in Pan’s postings above with water jugs. What are they thinking? “Gee, this is what I want to do for the rest of my life. This is so much fun! Yep, I can hardly wait until I have to carry these jugs twice as far to the next watering hole!’
I don’t think so.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
“…no need to run a computer to tell you that you are an idiot to go religious hiking in lethal heat.” 😂
Quite.
“Not that well constrained” climate observations have usually turned out to be worse than expected so that Bill McGuire X post about tropical clouds could well turn out to be the first leak about the approaching asteroid.
George, that info was new to me so I had a look for the source. It seems that we would need significantly higher CO2, which certainly isn’t impossible if multiple sinks fail in cascading fashion.
“We found that stratocumulus decks over subtropical oceans become unstable and break up into scattered cumulus clouds at CO2 levels at least three times higher than those today (about 1,200 ppm or more of CO2 equivalent).
“When that happens, the ocean surface below the clouds warms because the cloud shading is diminished. The extra solar energy absorbed as stratocumulus decks break up (in an area estimated to cover about 6.5% of the globe) is assumed to spread uniformly across the globe, leading to around 8℃ global warming.”
https://clima.caltech.edu/2019/03/01/faq-possible-climate-transitions-from-breakup-of-stratocumulus-decks-under-greenhouse-warming/
That’s the theory but the X post suggests that actual observations are “deeply worrying” so presumably worse than expected by the theory (as maybe Feynman said: if the observations disagree with the theory then the theory is wrong).
Good point, George. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since that study came out in 2019.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-19/shrinking-cloud-cover-driving-temperature-records/105428180
The NASA cloud database to 2016 could be downloaded here (if you had the right software to read it). Maybe up to date numbers are also available, I haven’t found such a site, and it sounds like Bill McGuire is conducting his own analysis on the fly, even if any kind of peer reviewed paper would be years away.
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/clouds/casccad/
Posting above: US pressures Vanuatu at UN over ICJ’s landmark climate change ruling…
————
Trump says, “Drown you losers! Climate change is fake news.”
There, I fixed the headline to fully incorporate the incorrect logic of the US President.
Hello Bob,
This may be related
Exiting ‘CBS Evening News’ Producer Cites “Shifting Ideological Expectations” in Parting Message. Rick Porter
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/tv/articles/exiting-cbs-evening-news-producer-190202112.html
“Eleven Evening News staffers have taken the buyout offer, among them producer Alicia Hastey. In a goodbye message to her colleagues (later shared by New York Times media reporter Ben Mullin on X), Hastey cited several stories she had worked on that “aimed to foreground underrepresented perspectives” along with “interviews that challenged conventional wisdom and efforts to make our journalism more responsive to a skeptical public.”
“But,” Hastey continued, “there has been a sweeping new vision prioritizing a break from traditional broadcast norms to embrace what has been described as ‘heterodox’ journalism. The truth is that commitment to those people [in the stories Hastey cited] and the stories they have to tell is increasingly becoming impossible. Stories may instead be evaluated not just on their journalistic merit but on whether they conform to a shifting set of ideological expectations — a dynamic that pressures producers and reporters to self-censor or avoid challenging narratives that might trigger backlash or unfavorable headlines.”
Wonder what those challenging narratives might be, any ideas, Pan?
Exiting ‘CBS Evening News’ Producer Cites “Shifting Ideological Expectations” in Parting Message
Rick Porter
Thu, February 12, 2026 at 2:02 PM EST
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/tv/articles/exiting-cbs-evening-news-producer-190202112.html
But,” Hastey continued, “there has been a sweeping new vision prioritizing a break from traditional broadcast norms to embrace what has been described as ‘heterodox’ journalism. The truth is that commitment to those people [in the stories Hastey cited] and the stories they have to tell is increasingly becoming impossible. Stories may instead be evaluated not just on their journalistic merit but on whether they conform to a shifting set of ideological expectations — a dynamic that pressures producers and reporters to self-censor or avoid challenging narratives that might trigger backlash or unfavorable headlines.”
“Stories may instead be evaluated not just on their journalistic merit but on whether they conform to a shifting set of ideological expectations…”
I have noticed the same with movies, Vince, where ideological soundness has, in some quarters, become as important as artistic merit.
Bob, I guess the most charitable explanation is that Trump knows there isn’t much we can do for low-lying Pacific islands. One suspects he doesn’t care either but…
Trump does care, he is a sadist and wants others to suffer. He also goes after first those who disagree with him or might take any amount of attention away from him, such as “headline grabbers” trying to protect the environment.
The Pandemic of Idiots: How the Virus of Stupidity Infected the Modern World – Nietzsche
Philosophical Vision
46.5K subscribers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-uxp_-343s
@mlouism2minotti748
1 month ago
I’m so glad I grew up in the 1960’s. No cell phones, played outside, and no social media. We actually learned., not googled information
Vince, there is a lot of overthinking going on, too, and you could even make the case that the human conceptual mind is now showing its limitations as an evolutionary experiment.
At this point, an abundance of stupid people, depressing though that may be, is not going alter our collective trajectory.
Yeah, I mean, I’m pretty smart, but I’m not so smart that there should be this many people so much dumber than me…
A headline we can put in the garbage is ai saving us from anything. In Colorado there is basically no snowpack to speak of so the colorado river basin is fucked to say anything. People know things are bad but i don’t think they quite understand how bad it is and what it means to living daily life.
Heather, the latest forecasts suggest below-average precipitation across parts of southern Colorado, New Mexico, and the broader Southwest for the rest of the winter, so they are probably stuck with the huge snowpack deficit.
Heavy rain headed for northern California and Oregon though:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/02/14/heavy-rain-california-oregon-forecast-storms/
With all the rape & sexual violence against women & young girls in war zones today, I wonder if the following article applies as the Seneca Collapse heads off a cliff…
https://archive.vn/mLLOt
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Constant Sexual Aggression Drives Female Tortoises to Walk Off Cliffs
On a remote island in North Macedonia, male Hermann’s tortoises outnumber females 19 to 1, an imbalance driving the population to extinction.
…after many years of study, Dr. Arsovski realized that the females were undersized and dying young…
…The high concentration of aggressive males “actually seems to be causing an extinction vortex,” said Jeanine Refsnider, an evolutionary ecologist at the University of Toledo in Ohio who was not involved in the study.
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ME: If this genetic trend applies to us, then we need to do a better job of protecting females going forward. Or else make sure that males fight males with no females in the combat areas.
A last gasp effort would be to feed females in famine areas while denying food to most males. Easier said than done. Basic formula would be to make sure male infanticide > female deaths.
Climate change making male frogs sound sexier or possibly just more desperate, too:
““The song of frogs really depends on the temperature of the environment… As ponds warm, male frogs go from sounding slow and sluggish to faster and almost desperate. I can hear it with my human ears, and female frogs are also paying attention.””
https://www.euronews.com/green/2026/02/13/croaking-love-songs-is-climate-change-making-male-frogs-sound-sexier
As declining ERoEI leads to ever decreasing surplus energy for society combined with ongoing depletion of vital resources–>the ‘K-shaped ‘economy is just not descriptive anymore:
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From the Fortune magazine website
Welcome to the ‘E-shaped’ economy: Wealth gap is no longer between just high and low earners, the middle class is also struggling
For the past 12 months, investors and consumers had settled into the idea of a “K-shaped economy.” Be it jobs or spending, the K-shape illustrated a growing divide between the fortunes of the wealthy and everyone else. Those at the top of the pile trended higher, while those already struggling pushed lower.
But new analysis from Bank of America suggests the trajectory of middle-class consumers is now pulling away from those on the lower end of the income spectrum: These consumers aren’t doing as well as wealthy people, but their spending power isn’t as diminished as that of poorer consumers.
A look at BofA’s data shows the shape is no longer a K. If we’re sticking with the alphabet theme, one might suggest an “E” is emerging…
https://fortune.com/2026/02/12/e-shaped-economy-middle-lower-upper-class-k-shaped-economy-bank-america-data/
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ME: Maybe this website should be renamed ‘Lack of Fortune’ or ‘Unfortunate’
If we’re sticking with the alphabet theme, one might suggest an “E” is emerging…Existential?
Welcome to the new American Caste System.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-outlook-k-shaped-recovery-income-inequality-peter-atwater-2026-2
The economist who first warned of America’s K-shaped recovery says this is his worst fear for the US
Peter Atwater is worried the K-shaped economy could create a caste system in the US.
He’s worried a “caste effect” could put the American dream further out of reach for many.
Still, the economist sees the K-shaped divide between high- and low-earners fading eventually….
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ME: the divide fading or narrowing won’t be a trickle-down economic effect but what is left of the ruins of civilization pinching down to the last remaining hunter-gatherers.
Would that be more accurately called the ‘Z-shaped’ economy as in Zero?
same fire photo for India and Thailand?
Good catch, Anonymous. That’s amended.
Trump admin is pulling supercomputers out of key weather and climate research center
By Andrew Freedman Feb 13, 2026 CNN News
https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/13/weather/trump-colorado-lab-ncar-supercomputer-climate
The National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder in December.
A leading American research lab is slated to lose its critical supercomputing facility, according to a letter released Thursday by the National Science Foundation.
The move is part of the Trump administration’s effort to disassemble the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, one of the world’s top weather and climate research centers, which the admin views as a source of climate change alarmism.
The computing center, which is slated to be turned over to an unspecified third party, runs weather and climate research models and is used by about 1,500 researchers from over 500 universities around the country. The work done on this supercomputer benefits the American people by leading to more accurate forecasts of extreme weather and climate events, aircraft turbulence and more
This was already probably posted here and as Pan would say “Sticking out heads in the sand”
Wow. We’re really slipping fast into the shitter.
Circling the Drain Now
More signs of rising unaffordability as prices rise but wages stagnate. Just more indications of declining ERoEI. This first link is a volunteer wood bank trying to offset the rising price of home heating as natgas, propane, fuel oil, and electric heating costs increase.
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Wood bank hustles to meet growing demand: ‘We want it to last for the people that need it’
On a chilly Saturday morning in February, over a dozen local residents in bright orange beanies gathered on Jill’s Lane in Surry to split, stack and carry wood across a lot piled with thousands of logs that will eventually heat people’s homes during Maine’s long winters.
Those gathered are volunteers with the Downeast Wood Bank, a nonprofit that supplies free firewood to people to use as a heating source in their homes.
“The wood bank is like a food pantry,” said Board Member Tom Matthews. Instead of offering food, the bank supports families experiencing some form of heating instability.
“It’s to help people through a tough time,” he added.
The group has been around for five years, since 2021, but Matthews said that this season, the group is “hustling to meet the need…
https://www.ellsworthamerican.com/news/wood-bank-hustles-to-meet-growing-demand-we-want-it-to-last-for-the-people/article_df7d784f-c2c7-45c7-8a4e-b6bc495a730f.html
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ME: another firewood link.
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https://www.wwnytv.com/2026/02/12/firewood-gains-popularity-utility-costs-rise/
Firewood gains popularity as utility costs rise
TOWN OF LERAY, New York (WWNY) – As winter temperatures drop and utility costs climb, more residents are turning to firewood as an alternative heating source.
Walter French, owner of Wacky Wally’s Firewood Service, said he has seen a lot more customers.
…French said the demand comes from both new customers and existing ones purchasing larger quantities. Some customers are buying double the amount of wood compared to last year due to the cold weather.
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ME: Having firewood for home heating, water heating, and cooking food & baking bread on a wood cookstove is a huge plus as we decline from Modernity. Additionally, felling trees and splitting firewood is an excellent way to get a full-body exercise compared to playing a videogame or streaming Netflix.
If you live in an area that requires lots of electric-powered AC, like much of the American South, then you really have no other alternative way to beat lethal wet-bulb temperatures when Modernity disappears.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Buckle up, Buttercups! Things may start going downhill fast…time will tell…
From the Journal of Petroleum Technology:
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EIA Predicts Near-Term US Production To Remain Near 2025 Levels
The US Energy Information Administration said it expects US crude oil production to stay close to 2025 levels in 2026 before dipping in 2027.
January 22, 2026
By JPT Staff
Journal of Petroleum Technology
The 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that US crude oil production next year will remain near the record 13.6 million B/D produced in 2025 before decreasing 2% to 13.3 million B/D in 2027. The predicted drop in annual US production would mark the first drop since 2021….
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ME: It will be interesting to see if the rest of the world, especially OPEC, if they can boost production to make up for the American shortfall.
Oops, forgot the link for my previous post. Sorry!
https://jpt.spe.org/eia-predicts-near-term-us-production-to-remain-near-2025-levels
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ME: Now, petroleum from a different perspective. Remember that the EIA is not the same as the IEA.
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Forget ‘peak oil’: the era of scarcity is dead, and now we’re drowning in abundance
Forget the old fears of Peak Oil. The world has flipped from a scarcity crisis to a crisis of drowning in abundance. We have entered the era of the Super Glut—a structural deluge where we are extracting hydrocarbons faster than the global economy can burn them.
According to the IEA’s January 2026 report, global oil supply is projected to surge by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd), reaching a definitive record of 108.7 million bpd. This is not a temporary surge; it is a permanent shift in market dynamics. Forget the old fears of Peak Oil. The world has flipped from a scarcity crisis to a crisis of drowning in abundance.
We have entered the era of the Super Glut—a structural deluge where we are extracting hydrocarbons faster than the global economy can burn them. According to the IEA’s January 2026 report, global oil supply is projected to surge by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd), reaching a definitive record of 108.7 million bpd. This is not a temporary surge; it is a permanent shift in market dynamics.
The Five Forces of the Super Glut
In the past, low prices acted as a brake: when oil got too cheap, companies stopped producing. Today, that brake is broken. The market is hit by five converging forces that have rendered traditional supply-demand models obsolete….
The Price Trap
While the U.S. faces a refining wall for its light sweet shale, China’s role as the world’s oil sponge is nearing its limit. By the third quarter of 2026, China’s functional storage is expected to max out. Once these cushions are exhausted, excess supply will be forced into expensive floating storage on aging tankers.
This bottleneck will trigger a price trap. Skyrocketing storage costs—potentially reaching $150,000 per day—will impose a massive penalty on global production. Once satellite data confirms the world is full, algorithmic trading systems will likely trigger a mass exodus, potentially collapsing prices by 30% in a single 48-hour session…
https://www.aol.com/articles/forget-peak-oil-era-scarcity-140500018.html
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ME: It will be fascinating to see if Scarcity predominates or if a short duration Glut occurs at the very top of the one-time Carbon Pulse. It will plummet down from there.
Finally, a third scenario.
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We’re three years from peak oil
Economics thinktank predicts world oil demand will peak in 2028 and then slide down by a quater mid century
Global oil demand will crest in 2028 at roughly 105 million barrels a day before slipping steadily to 84 million barrels by 2060, a return to levels last seen in 2005.
That’s the prediction from according to new modelling from Oxford Economics.
The peak comes sooner than previously forecast and the decline that follows is not a collapse but a reshaping. Oil does not disappear, it changes character…
https://www.energylivenews.com/2026/02/12/were-three-years-from-peak-oil/
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ME: Who knows what the future holds?
All I can reflect on, as a child, I loved to play with matches and set things on fire with my pal Butch. Until one day started one under a dried out log in the woods that suddenly raged out of control and needed the fire department to put out before it reached nearly homes.
Unfortunately, seems us adults won’t be restrained before bad things to happen.
It’s in our nature to light my fire, regardless of 5ge consequences