Many thanks to my October donor, Cassandra, who suggests this month listening daily to Adagio for Strings (one of the west’s most famous concert pieces) while you read the C & E posts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQsgE0L450 (If you use the Brave browser it can play in the background even when not on that page, plus no ads!).
“Head of IMF says risks in private credit market keep her awake at night.
“Speaking at the IMF’s annual meeting in Washington DC, Georgieva said the fund was concerned about the “very significant shift of financing” from the banking sector to non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs).
“Those NBFIs are not regulated as closely as the banking sector, she pointed out, meaning the world could end up in “a difficult place” if the private credit sector continued to grow significantly and the global economy then weakened.”
“Zions shares plunge 7% after $50M loan loss, US regional banks face credit pressure.
“US regional banks faced renewed investor scrutiny on Thursday after Zions Bancorp disclosed a $50 million loss on two commercial loans, raising concerns about hidden credit risks across the sector.”
“AI’s double bubble trouble…
“…it is hard to ignore the financial bubble frothing up on top of the industrial investment boom. Is the privately owned OpenAI, on course to burn $8.5bn of cash this year, worth $500bn (unless it does attain AGI)? Does it make sense that the data and AI company Palantir is trading on a forward price/earnings multiple of 225 (the highest valuation of any S&P 500 company)?”
https://www.ft.com/content/da16e2b1-4fc2-4868-8a37-17030b8c5498
“Global government debt on course to hit 100% of GDP by 2029, IMF warns…
“A 100% global debt-to-GDP ratio would be the highest since 1948, when the world’s large economies had been devastated by six years of war and the costs of rebuilding their ravaged countries.”
“The rich world faces a painful bout of inflation…
“It is …increasingly likely that governments will instead resort to inflation and financial repression to reduce the real value of their high debts, as they did in the decades after the second world war. The machinery for such a strategy is in place at central banks, which have a large footprint in bond markets.”
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/10/16/the-rich-world-faces-a-painful-bout-of-inflation
“Understanding Fiat Currency Collapse Risks and Protection Strategies…
“Stage 4: Confidence Erosion: Foreign investors and domestic savers begin questioning currency stability, leading to capital flight and additional devaluation pressures that compound existing problems… Stage 5: Systemic Breakdown: The currency becomes functionally worthless as hyperinflation destroys purchasing power…”
“Gold and Silver Hit Records on Credit Fears, US-China Tensions…
“Gold has surged about 65% this year, underpinned by central-bank buying, inflows to exchange-traded funds and soaring demand for haven assets in the face of geopolitical and trade tensions, rising government spending and debt, and threats to the Fed’s independence from the Trump administration.”
“Saudi Aramco chief warns of global oil shortage if industry fails to invest…
“Oil majors have been cutting their spending on exploration and production since a price crash in 2014. They were also influenced by predictions of a rapid energy transition away from fossil fuels, and by investors calling for them to return more cash via dividends and buybacks. Investment into oil and gas exploration and production is set to fall 6 per cent to $420bn this year…”
https://www.ft.com/content/698b826a-8d14-4eef-bca6-f84634965080
“Oil Tanker Rates Soar as U.S. and China Escalate Port Trade War.
“China has imposed steep new port fees on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels — mirroring U.S. tariffs on Chinese ships. This new system of levies triggered turmoil in the global tanker market and drove freight rates sharply higher.”
“US-China Trade War Boils Over and Gets Personal…
“With the world’s finance chiefs gathered in Washington at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent lashed out at a top Chinese trade official, saying he turned up in Washington recently in an “unhinged” fashion typical of Beijing’s so-called wolf warrior diplomats.”
“China’s property slump hits economy as trade tensions with US heighten…
“China’s property market will have halved in four years, from RMB 18.2 trillion in 2021 to less than RMB 9 trillion this year. And S&P, which until recently expected the market to stabilise by the end of 2025, now predicts that it will fall by a further 6-7 per cent in 2026.”
“US Senate vote to end government shutdown fails for 10th time…
“The Senate vote on a short-term Republican funding bill failed for the 10th time with just 51 votes. A second vote on Pentagon funding in the afternoon similarly failed in a floor vote, meaning the process to begin fully funding military operations also becomes a non-starter.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/16/government-shutdown-aoc-bernie-sanders-republicans
“Trump tariffs pushing Canada into recession…
“The numbers are a blow to Canadian prime minister Mr Carney, a former governor of the Bank of England. He was elected in April on a promise to push back against Mr Trump, who has said Canada should become America’s 51st state.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2025/10/16/trump-tariffs-pushing-canada-into-recession/
“UK economy sleepwalking after yet another lackluster growth update.
“The British economy expanded by a lackluster 0.1% in August, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. “Production grew by 0.4% in August 2025, whereas services showed no growth and construction fell by 0.3% in August,” the ONS noted.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/16/uk-gdp-for-august-2025.html
“Banker bonuses to be paid faster after UK regulators loosen rules…
“The decision, which will be welcomed by the City, marks yet another rollback of post-financial crisis rules after the UK formally scrapped a banker bonus cap two years ago that limited bonuses to two times bankers’ salaries.”
“Germany’s Merz aims to slash red tape on banks to boost economy, sources say.
“Much banking regulation on the continent is carried out at European Union level and the bloc has been debating whether to follow the Trump administration’s efforts to roll back rules put in place after the 2008/2009 global financial crisis…”
“Real estate: the threat of a financial crisis is growing among French developers.
“French real estate developers are facing mounting difficulties as the time it takes to sell housing stock lengthens, compounding an ongoing crisis that has lasted three years. This has made refinancing their debt increasingly challenging, particularly amid the broader public debt crisis in France.”
“Europe’s retail distress now exceeds 2009 financial crisis levels.
“The index tracks the deterioration in financial market conditions and company performance which “occurs in advance of a default wave” and seeks to provide an early warning indicator… Germany is Europe’s most distressed market…”
“Europe’s economic malaise could trigger more riots and civil unrest across the continent, a top insurance executive has warned.
“Clarisse Kopff, a board member at global reinsurance giant Munich Re, said “social tensions” were already increasing as European economic growth struggled to keep pace with the US and China.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/16/europes-weak-economy-risks-fuelling-riots/
“Greece adopts law extending working hours despite protests.
“Greece’s parliament approved a bill on Thursday allowing private sector employers to extend working hours despite protests from workers already struggling from a cost-of-living crisis. The bill, which allows employers to enforce 13-hour work days, up from the current eight hours, aims to make the labour market more flexible and effective…”
“Serbia braces for energy crisis as US sanctions its only oil refinery.
“Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic warned that US sanctions on the country’s Russian-majority owned oil company NIS will impact all citizens, as he pledged to continue discussions with Washington while awaiting Moscow’s response to the restrictions that took effect on 8 October.”
https://www.worldecr.com/news/serbia-braces-for-energy-crisis-as-us-sanctions-its-only-oil-refinery/
“United States Pressures Japan to Stop Buying Russian Oil and Gas.
“Japan remains heavily dependent on imported oil and gas. In 2023, it spent 582 billion yen ($3.9 billion) importing Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), accounting for around 9% of its total imports of the energy source.”
“Trump says he plans to meet Putin in Budapest as Zelenskyy prepares to make missiles case at White House.
“Volodymyr Zelenskyy will head to the White House on Friday for a crucial meeting with Donald Trump, hours after the US president said he had agreed to another summit with Vladimir Putin in Budapest after a “very productive” call.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/16/zelenskyy-tomahawk-missiles-trump-putin-budapest
“Hundreds gather for rare anti-Putin demonstration in St Petersburg singing protest songs: ‘The old man clings to his throne’…
“A crowd of young people gathered to sing anti-war songs in Kazanskaya Square, including the proscribed song “Swan Lake Collective” by Russian rapper Noize MC, in footage that has now gone viral on social media.”
“South Korea to deploy powerful Hyunmoo-5 ballistic missile amid tensions on Korean Peninsula.
“South Korea will begin to deploy its powerful Hyunmoo-5 ballistic missile by the end of this year as part of efforts to establish a “balance of terror” against North Korea’s growing nuclear threat, said Defence Minister Ahn Gyu-back.”
https://www.trtworld.com/article/8184b78b9101
“China says it expelled Philippine planes from disputed South China Sea reef.
“China said it had expelled two Philippine aircraft near the disputed Scarborough Shoal on Thursday in the second confrontation between the two rival South China Sea claimants in as many days.”
“Women’s organizations have warned that conflict-related sexual violence is increasingly prevalent in Myanmar.
“Since the 2021 coup, legal protections for women have deteriorated, contributing to an increase in conflict-related sexual violence… In areas where the junta’s control is weak and the administrative system is failing, serious incidents of sexual violence, some resulting in the deaths of women, are occurring…”
https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/rising-cases-conflict-related-sexual-violence
“Survivors Of Afghanistan-Pakistan Conflict Describe Toll On Civilians.
“Fighting along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, along with suspected air strikes on the Afghan capital, Kabul, on October 15, has killed dozens and led to widespread destruction, according to survivors. Afghans who called in to RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi describe the toll while a Pakistani man says he lost his son to a Taliban-launched mortar shell.”
“At least 31 people were killed when a bomb exploded in the mainly Shia Sadr City suburb of Baghdad today.
“The explosion, which ripped through market stalls at around 6.15 am local time (0315 GMT), appeared to have targeted men who were gathering in the hope of being hired as labourers. Police said more than 50 people were injured.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2006/oct/30/iraq
“Syria’s ticking time bomb.
“Ten months after the fall of the Assad regime, sectarian and ethnic tensions have come to represent a ticking time bomb at the heart of the new Syria… Without some form of transitional justice to address sectarian violence, the country risks slipping back into chaos…”
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/minorities-in-syria/
“Israel’s exploding robots still terrorise Gaza neighbourhoods…
“In Jabalia, Sheikh Radwan, Abu Iskandar and beyond, people returned to flattened neighbourhoods, and to the knowledge that, still among the rubble, some of the explosive robots that had caused it sat, silent and undetonated.”
“Chief of staff of Yemen Houthi rebel’s military dies from wounds suffered in Israeli airstrike.
“An Israeli airstrike targeting the top leaders of Yemen’s Houthi rebels in August killed the chief of staff of its military, officials said Thursday, further escalating tensions between the group and Israel even as a ceasefire holds in the Gaza Strip.”
“Sudan hit by triple outbreak of deadly diseases.
“Dengue and malaria in particular have surged after flooding and the breakdown of sewage systems created breeding grounds for mosquitoes… Health infrastructure has been devastated by more than two years of civil war and millions of people are living without access to adequate sanitation.”
“Displacement in Haiti hits record as 1.4M flee gang violence: UN agency…
“The IOM’s latest Displacement Tracking Matrix report said forced displacement has risen 36% since the end of 2024 as gang-related violence continues to spread beyond the national capital of Port-au-Prince.”
“The Death Toll Is Rising from Ecuador’s Crackdown on Protesters.
“At least three people have been killed in Ecuador as the government further ramps up its use of force against Indigenous-led protests triggered in part by crackdowns on environmentalists, according to civil society and human rights groups.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16102025/ecuador-environmental-defenders-protests-death-toll/
“Peru to declare state of emergency after protests against new president leave one dead and dozens injured.
“Prime minister Ernesto Alvarez said late on Thursday that the government would declare the state of emergency in Lima within hours and is preparing a package of measures to tackle rising insecurity.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/17/peru-protests-state-emergency-president-jose-jeri
“The U.S. military has reportedly struck another suspected drug boat on Thursday in the Caribbean, two U.S. officials told CNN.
“The strike, which is yet to be publicly confirmed, would be the sixth such attack since last month. The alleged operation is thought to be the first of the strikes to leave behind survivors.”
“United States President Donald Trump confirmed on Wednesday that he has authorised the CIA to carry out secret operations in Venezuela.
“The New York Times first disclosed the directive, quoting US officials who privately said the administration’s strategy is focused on removing President Nicolas Maduro from power.”
“Is loneliness the new global pandemic? We look at loneliness in the digital world, where everyone is connected but no one is connecting.
“From rising suicide levels to surveys showing how Gen Z is the loneliest generation ever, we look at the reasons behind this global sentiment. “
https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-stream/2025/10/16/is-loneliness-the-new-global-pandemic
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
“Trump says he plans to meet Putin in Budapest as Zelenskyy prepares to make missiles case at White House.”
The “pro-Russia MAGA” alt media muppets will rave about Trump’s genius move to liberate the US from the evil grip of NATO and rule the world with fellow crazy savior genius, Putin. The anti-Trump muppets will flail around hysterically over Trump’s impending surrender of US and/or Ukrainian sovereignty to Russian oligarchs. This is, what, the 13th time he’s done that this year? We need to put a stop to this naughtiness once again by doing exactly what we did every time – getting on the streets, holding up signs and shouting things while the pigs keep order, passers-by stare at us and influencers farm content.
The true genius of course lies in the self-delusion of the ruling and comfortable classes, who have avoided having to confront the reality of capital’s crisis by fabricating an alternate reality and then endlessly debating in circles about it. So they can mostly live their lives as usual and any awareness of trouble in paradise is immediately neutered by being assimilated into the alt reality and the “culture war” over its soul. The appeal that soap opera holds for bored middle-class housewives, transplanted to the domain of politics deprived by its own contradictions of its once-formidable ability to partially mediate structural crises.
Jupiviv, Trump seems to change his mind every five minutes on Ukraine. He’s obviously very invested in the idea of being seen as peace-broker par excellence, which is weird given how unashamedly expansionist/aggressive US foreign policy now is in some arenas, eg Greenland and Venezuela.
Zelensky needs to play to Trump’s ego. Donald you could go down in history as the President that destroyed Putin/KGB/Russian dictatorship, you would be honored globally, how about some long range missiles? Don’t let Putin laugh at you & the U.S. You could have Putin begging for peace.
The final act of the Fossil Age — “Keeping up Appearances 2.0” — the daily ritual of a civilization polishing its façade while the foundation crumbles beneath it.
An oil price sinking into irrelevance. Tankers drifting fully loaded, burning ever-costlier fuel on their way to ports no one dares to name. Crude flooding the market while more refineries are taken out of play by drones each day. And, to top it off, OPEC’s solemn call to “invest,” warning of looming “shortages.” No one knows who should invest, where, or how, without bleeding losses.
In short: a society that can no longer bear the physical reality of decay and limits. So it escapes into endless semiotic loops — talk shows, panels, protests, memes, hashtags. Everything spins, but nothing moves. The energy of crisis is converted into noise so that no one has to feel the walls cracking.
Political debate has become a cultural substitution economy: where coal, steel, or oil once powered the machine, now it runs on the emotional labor of opinions and identities. The elites — and the public — consume “the crisis” as content. Suffering becomes aesthetic, digestible, an endless soap in which every episode ends on the same cliffhanger: “tomorrow everything changes.”
But physically, nothing changes. The atmosphere warms, the fields empty, the ships idle, the tanks are full. And meanwhile we argue about who’s “right” in a world where being right has lost all meaning.
It’s the last form of escapism left to a depleted system — the imitation of meaning. A society that no longer produces but performs. A labyrinth of echoes, where even the Minotaur sits on the couch, remote control in hand, smiling softly as the credits of the fossil age roll across the screen.
“…now it runs on the emotional labor of opinions and identities.”
Eckhart Tolle might say this is the collective human ego reaching the outer edge of its own insanity, Zip, frantically distracting itself with mental positions as reality becomes ever more unpalatable.
At least bankers don’t have to wait as long to get their bonuses, so there is a bright side to it all!
Deregulating into an obviously looming crisis… what could possibly go wrong? 😆
https://youtu.be/u0WmL04NhDo?si=ECpX0ZFFA6wjs_ZC
Handford waste disposal a new process to store waste. What could go wrong? Nothing sure
Let’s all cheer..
Too Big to Fail…what can’t ever happen..
Major bank merger to create one of the largest banks in US in $10.9B deal
Published: Oct. 07, 2025, 10:18 a.m.
Two notable banks are merging, creating one of the largest banks in the United States.
Fifth Third Bank of Cincinnati, Ohio, is acquiring the Dallas, Texas, bank Comerica in an all-stock transaction valued at $10.9 billion, the companies announced in a statement on Monday.
This combination marks a pivotal moment for Fifth Third as we accelerate our strategy to build density in high-growth markets and deepen our commercial capabilities,” Chairman, CEO and President of Fifth Third Bank Tim Spence wrote in the press release. “Comerica’s strong middle market franchise and complementary footprint make this a natural fit.”
The combined entity will operate in 17 of the 20 fastest growing markets in the U.S. including key regions in the Southeast, Texas and California while solidifying its leadership in the Midwest.
By 2030, the companies anticipate that over half of Fifth Third’s branches will be located in the Southeast, Texas, Arizona and California.
Smells more and more we are in trouble…hold on Baby, it will be a wild time
“The ugly truth is that those gigantic banks don’t want to have enough capital because they are thought to be “too big to fail,” a status they want to maintain because it means that the government will bail them out…
“…these banks mislead the public if not make outright false statements about their capital and ability to absorb losses in crises. For example, JP Morgan Chase touts a capital ratio of over 15%, making it seem as if they can take 15% of losses before going bankrupt. But this is a “risk adjusted” capital ratio that does not represent their actual loss taking capacity…
“The industry’s push for lower capital is a multi-step, multi-year plan that hides the ultimate goal by weakening each component of the capital framework separately.”
https://bettermarkets.org/analysis/wall-street-banks-are-trying-to-return-to-dangerously-low-2007-capital-levels-again-endangering-main-street-jobs-and-homes/
Heather, our nuclear adventure is really going to come back and bite us on the arse, I fear.
Not clear on the concept: Only the Furor could announce Murder, Inc (the new name of the War Department, why bother with declaring War when you can just start random killings?) is starting a secret CIA op without being the least bit conscious of its impossibility.
Rob, I must be missing something because surely if you are planning covert operations on foreign soil the last thing you would want to do is announce it to the press. Reminds me of this exchange in the wonderful A Fish Called Wanda:
Otto West: “Look, you obviously don’t know anything about intelligence work, lady. It’s an X-K-Red-27 technique.”
Wendy: “My father was in the Secret Service, Mr. Manfredjinsinjin, and I know perfectly well that you don’t keep the general public informed when you are debriefing KGB defectors in a safe house.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoaOwSPJPHw
😄 thanx for that , Pan. I just saw the same cast in “Fierce Creatures” … not nearly as good a film, but the lovely animals are excuse enuf to make it thru the too-too silliness of the story.
There is s/t more than ominous in this: After the Reichstag fire, the Nazi’s took the simple step of illegalizing all opposition, thus clearing the “Autobahn to Autocracy” of all obstacles. The outlandish accusations of the Chief executive following the Kirk assassination, as well as the labeling of demonstrators as “domestic terrorists” demonstrates the same strategy, laying bare the intentions of the criminally insane administration: declare (as in create) a ‘Reichstag Fire’ moment to roll over opposition to his despotism.
Rob, I started Fierce Creatures but gave up, as it was so lacklustre compared to A Fish Called Wanda. Perhaps I’ll give it another go with more of a focus on those splendid animals.
The US has more checks and balances than inter-war Germany did but there is an obvious trend towards authoritarianism. It is only to be expected in this era of rising popular discontent, I suppose. God knows where it ends up.
“The authors conclude with “moderate to high confidence” that the US is moving toward what scholars call “competitive authoritarianism”, a system in which elections and courts continue to function, but are “systematically manipulated” to consolidate executive power and weaken checks and balances.
“According to the assessment, these trends are increasingly visible in the US, as part of a broader effort by Donald Trump in his second presidential term to “ensure loyalty and ideological conformity” across the federal government.
““The speed with which we have devolved away from a fully functioning democracy is startling to me,” Gail Helt, a former CIA analyst and a member of the Steady State said…”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/16/trump-authoritarianism-warning
Who could have known?
“Key Takeaways
Consumers will pay $592 billion for President Donald Trump’s import taxes by the end of 2025, according to a recent analysis.
Companies are passing through higher trade costs to consumers, and that’s pushing up the cost of living, according to separate reports by Goldman Sachs and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tariffs-pushed-inflation-more-price-200731980.html
I didn’t see any part where Republicans were exempt.
TR, as with all of our converging crises, we ain’t seen nothing yet. The remorseless erosion of our purchasing power has only just begun.