Many thanks to my October donor, Cassandra, who suggests this month listening daily to Adagio for Strings (one of the west’s most famous concert pieces) while you read the C & E posts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQsgE0L450 (If you use the Brave browser it can play in the background even when not on that page, plus no ads!).
“The Lesson of 1929. Debt is the almost singular through line behind every major financial crisis.
“It’s a powerfully optimistic force. If we envision the future as a land of ever‑expanding opportunity and affluence, why shouldn’t we marshal some of those resources for use today? That’s what debt does. It draws the wealth of tomorrow into the present.
“Problems arise when we get greedy and take too much. Nobody knows for sure where the line is—or what to do when we discover that we’ve gone past it. At that point, panic is the natural reaction. The future suddenly grows so small and dark that there isn’t enough optimism left to draw from.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/10/andrew-ross-sorkin-lesson-1929/684546/
“Across the rich world, fiscal crises loom – the consequences will be profound…
“If investors doubt an electorate’s mettle for servicing their country’s debts and start selling off bonds, governments can be forced into excruciating choices. Interest costs can rise so much that only enormous primary surpluses, requiring deep austerity, can restore economic stability. The other option of a country in such a crisis is to default or to inflate away debts.”
https://www.economist.com/special-report/2025/10/13/across-the-rich-world-fiscal-crises-loom
“IMF Warns on Financial Stability Risks From Stablecoin Market.
“The $305 billion stablecoin market could threaten traditional lending, hamper monetary policy and trigger a run on some of the world’s safest assets, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday.”
“AI investment boom shielding US from sharp slowdown, says IMF.
“An “investment surge” in artificial intelligence has helped the US avoid a sharp slowdown but risks stoking inflation, the IMF’s chief economist has warned, as the fund upgraded its outlook for the world’s largest economy.”
https://www.ft.com/content/74224d84-8a7a-4d0d-a30d-1716e2d43b7a
“Fed Chair Powell says hiring slowdown poses economic risks, hinting at more interest rate cuts.
“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday emphasized that a sharp slowdown in hiring poses a growing risk to the U.S. economy, a sign that the central bank will likely cut its key interest rate twice more this year.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jerome-powell-speech-today-federal-reserve-labor-market-rate-cuts/
“Top US financiers sound alarm on lending standards…
“Last month’s failure of First Brands and subprime auto lender Tricolor has reverberated across credit markets and left investors such as Blackstone and PGIM, as well as major banks including Jefferies, nursing heavy losses.”
https://www.ft.com/content/f1b61807-c199-4fee-9bd4-dea738e1a0ac
“JP Morgan boss says more ‘cockroaches’ will emerge after private credit sector failures…
“Dimon said further failures were likely to emerge. “My antenna goes up when things like that happen. I probably shouldn’t say this but when you see one cockroach, there’s probably more. And so everyone should be forewarned at this point,” he said during an analyst call.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/14/jp-morgan-jamie-dimon-losses-private-credit-sector
“Trump threatens China with cooking oil embargo over soybean snub…
“China is committing an “Economically Hostile Act” by “purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. Ending business with China on cooking oil and “other elements of Trade” are possible forms of “retribution” that Trump said he was weighing.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/trump-china-soybean-cooking-oil.html
“China says it will ‘fight to end’ after US said it was trying to hurt world economy.
“The comments came shortly after the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said China wanted to “to pull everybody else down with them” by damaging the world economy… It follows the US and China starting to charge each other increased port fees on cargo ships, increasing trade tensions.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/14/china-us-world-economy-trump-tariffs
“China’s consumer prices fall as deflation fears loom…
“Consumers have been reluctant to spend since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic while government support measures have struggled to offset the impact of a four-year property slowdown.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c1fb659d-c205-4502-99a8-56a7b85964c4
“One of Europe’s biggest farm machinery firms halts US exports over ‘hidden’ tariffs.
“One of Europe’s biggest farm machinery companies, Krone, has been forced to pause exports of large equipment to the US because of “alarming” and little-known new tariffs that are hitting hundreds of products from knitting needles and hairdryers to combine harvesters.”
“The Global Food System Is Buckling Under War and Climate Pressure…
“In wealthier nations, complacency often dulls awareness of how fragile food systems have become. Tim Lang, emeritus professor of food policy at City University London, has spent his career warning against that illusion. “Britain is still in this never-never-land, it-won’t-happen-to-us nonsense,” he said.”
“‘Crisis levels’ – Irish shops could face fish shortages as fishermen warn of ‘collapse’…
“Supermarkets and fish mongers across Ireland could face shortages of fish in the near future as fishermen have warned of stocks at “crisis levels”. The Irish Fish Producers Organisation (IFPO) raised the issue at a meeting of the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Fisheries and Maritime Affairs on Tuesday.”
“UK food needs radical transformation on scale not seen since Second World War, new report finds…
“”The Roadmap for Resilience: A UK Food Plan for 2050″ calls for radical transformation… It says that if we do not act now, change will be forced upon us by increasing pressures and the UK will lurch from crisis to crisis, including from food price shocks, climate disasters and weakening economic productivity.”
https://phys.org/news/2025-10-uk-food-radical-scale-world.html
“Experts have warned that households could be “really in trouble” this autumn as energy prices rise again [UK].
“Some families are already resorting to cold showers and borrowing money to pay their bills, but leaders at energy charity Severn Wye believe the crisis is going to worsen when bills rise by 2%.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4y7yj81zvo
“Police clash with austerity protesters as huge strike rocks Brussels.
“Belgium’s trade unions are protesting against austerity measures introduced by the right-wing government coalition led by Flemish nationalist Bart De Wever, of the nationalist New Flemish Alliance.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/police-clash-with-protesters-huge-strikes-rock-brussels-belgium/
“France’s budget built on shaky ground, fiscal watchdog warns.
“The French government’s 2026 budget plans are based on rosy economic assumptions and its belt-tightening measures may fall short – or never even take shape if the new administration collapses, the independent fiscal watchdog said on Tuesday.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/frances-budget-built-shaky-ground-fiscal-watchdog-warns-2025-10-14/
“France’s political crisis weakens French and European growth.
“Uncertainty stemming from political instability has cost France at least 0.2 percentage points of growth, according to its central bank. With economic stagnation in Germany and budget tensions in the UK, Europe’s largest countries are in turmoil.”
“Germany to allow retirees to earn €2,000 a month tax-free…
“Germans who choose to work beyond the retirement age will be able to earn up to €2,000 a month tax-free, as part of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s push to tackle labour shortages and revive Europe’s largest economy.”
https://www.ft.com/content/b39dda3d-de8e-40d1-89f8-46bfad0b126e
“Russian could strike “deep into Europe”, Poland’s foreign minister warned in London as he unveiled a Russian-flown Shahed-136 drone downed in Ukraine.
“Radoslaw Sikorski said it would be “irresponsible” not to build defences such as a “drone wall” on Europe’s eastern flank and said he hoped the US would supply long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine for strikes into Russia.”
“Putin’s top ally warns if Trump gives missiles to Ukraine it could lead to ‘nuclear war’.
“Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, a loyal ally of Russia’s Vladimir Putin, has warned President Donald Trump that the U.S. handing subsonic Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine would mean “nuclear war.””
“Russia could deploy two million reservists to Ukraine with law change…
“The amendments to the law, likely to be backed by parliament, would allow reservists to be called up during peacetime, rather than when war has been declared, given that Moscow still calls its invasion of Ukraine a “special military operation”.”
“IMF Cuts Russia’s 2025 Economic Forecast Again.
“The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday once again lowered its forecast for Russia’s economic growth in 2025… The revision marks a 0.3 percentage-point downgrade from the IMF’s July estimate of 0.9% GDP growth and represents the second-sharpest cut among major economies after Canada.”
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/10/14/imf-cuts-russias-2025-economic-forecast-again-a90809
“South Korea builds civilian nuclear bunker as fears of North harden…
“The Songpa Creative Innovation public housing project in the south of the capital is intended to be ready in 2028 and will be equipped with a 3.4 billion won (£1.8 million) nuclear shelter, capable of supporting 1,020 people for up to 14 days.”
https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/article/nuclear-bunker-north-korea-threat-63rbbvtw9
“China seizes 60,000 maps for ‘mislabelling’ Taiwan…
“The maps, authorities said, also “omitted important islands” in the South China Sea, where Beijing’s claims overlap with those of its neighbours, including the Philippines and Vietnam. The “problematic” maps, meant for export, cannot be sold because they “endanger national unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity” of China, authorities said.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czr1myxe673o
“Indonesian police arrested hundreds after August riots, sending a chill through civil society…
“By late September, police had detained thousands of protesters and named 959 suspects (equivalent to being charged in the Australian system). They included 295 children, mostly high school students.”
https://www.abc.net.au/asia/indonesian-police-arrested-hundreds-after-august-riots/105891010
“Why Kabul’s backing of India’s claim over disputed Kashmir threatens regional peace…
“In a joint statement with India’s External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar on October 10, Foreign Minister of the interim Afghan government, Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi referred to the disputed region of Kashmir as part of India, eliciting words of strong condemnation from Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.”
https://www.trtworld.com/article/ed1d8f5f65e3
“Fresh Clashes Break Out On Border Between Afghan Taliban And Pak Forces.
“Intense fighting broke out once again on Tuesday night between Pakistani security forces and the Afghan Taliban along the border between the two countries in Kurram district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, state media reported.”
““It’s like a nightmare”: War and sanctions push Iranian workers to the brink…
“The recent economic shocks are layered on top of a multi-faceted humanitarian crisis. Iran faces a severe energy imbalance, where water shortages in the summer and insufficient gas supplies in the winter both lead to widespread power outages. Years of high inflation, largely driven by sanctions, have pushed the cost of a basic household food basket beyond the minimum wage…”
“Jordan’s water security caught between $5B megaproject, frayed Israel ties…
“Even with the National Water Carrier moving forward, Jordan’s water system remains under immense pressure; current projects focus on reducing losses, upgrading storage and improving energy efficiency — including replacing pumps at 42 stations and constructing 27 solar plants to power water infrastructure.”
“Gaza will be in the shadow of famine as long as we cannot plant our land.
“The majority of homes, schools, hospitals, universities, factories, and commercial buildings have been reduced to rubble. From above, Gaza looks like a grey desert of rubble, its vibrant urban spaces reduced to ghost towns, its lush agricultural land and greenery wiped out.”
“Elite military unit says it has seized power in Madagascar.
“President Rajoelina has not been seen in public in Madagascar for several days. He reportedly fled the Indian Ocean island on a French military aircraft on Sunday night, after the Capsat military unit said on Saturday that it would not shoot at protesters.”
“Prosecution of South Sudan’s vice-president raises fears of return to full-scale civil war.
“South Sudan’s opposition and observers have warned that the prosecution of the country’s suspended vice-president, Riek Machar, risks jeopardising a peace agreement that ended a devastating civil war and plunging the country into full-scale conflict once again.”
“Ecuador escalates military deployment after 13 soldiers injured in violent protests…
“The Armed Forces of Ecuador said the soldiers were injured during blockades after being targeted by “violent attacks perpetrated by groups that used Molotov cocktails, firecrackers, machetes and knives.””
“Trump says US will not ‘waste our time’ helping Argentina if Milei loses.
“President Donald Trump has acknowledged that a $20bn (£15bn) US lifeline to help calm Argentina’s currency crisis is an attempt to sway legislative elections this month in the South American nation… Milei praised Trump for his peacemaking efforts and said the US president’s policies would lead to “prosperity”.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg7n82gd7pvo
“US strikes another vessel off Venezuela coast, killing six…
“This is the fifth strike of its kind by the Trump administration on a boat accused of trafficking drugs on international waters since September. In total, 27 people have been reported killed, but the US has not provided evidence or details about identities of the vessels or those on board them.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg51625lmmgo
“Pentagon retreats from climate fight even as heat and storms slam US troops…
“Pentagon leaders have cut climate research funding and abandoned adaptation plans. Defense secretary Pete Hegseth has dismissed global warming concerns as “climate change crap”.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/14/pentagon-military-climate-crisis-trump
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Today’s litany is an all-timer.
Though I hate any and all classical music, Pan-O was like a world-class conductor today in selecting the thumbnail photographs, ending with two gargantuan seated hoptoads and the world’s most babbling toddler caught mid-tantrum.
The German couple does look happy, though: child- and grandchild -free and anxious to get back to laboring at the bratwurst factory.
Martin, the Belgians are rioting partly because their retirement age may be raised to 67. Perhaps they should take a leaf out of the Germans’ book and bribe the oldies back into work. Personally, I’m resigned to the reality that I will never, barring a lottery win, be retiring.
Do you really not like any classical music whatsoever? What if it is cunningly blended with rap, like sugar to help the medicine go down?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p43fBnQvMq8&list=RDp43fBnQvMq8&start_radio=1
Martin, I appreciate you sharing about your musical tastes; I’m sure I’m not the only one here at C & E who has been waiting with bated breath to find out what they are! Maybe you could sponsor November’s posts and share what music you DO like. I could be wrong, but I am guessing something like Jason Aldean – Try That In A Small Town
https://youtu.be/b1_RKu-ESCY?si=dyu2OklDsV_V55ri
Martin – can I suggest Nightwish? Symphonic metal – a genre I’ve recently been introduced to with Nightwish being the pinnacle in my humble opinion. Combines an orchestral feel with some hard hitting sound while also being quite philosophical. The lead singer, Floor Jansen is vocally amazing.
Ghost love score played live: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYjIlHWBAVo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYjIlHWBAVo
“An “investment surge” in artificial intelligence has helped the US avoid a sharp slowdown but risks stoking inflation, the IMF’s chief economist has warned, as the fund upgraded its outlook for the world’s largest economy.”
It’s shielding the investors, sure, at the cost of all the resources allocated to equipment and infrastructure that is guaranteed to have a negative real energy balance. Everyone else will live through the first (and probably last) ever depression-less depression.
And it is not the Word that shall prevail but the Image, restoring its prehistoric dominion over Man. And all men shall look upon their tablets of glass and crystal, and they shall find myriads of bad things to blame it all on except the ones that matter, and myriads of good things to build a better future with except the ones that really can. And then they shall move on with their lives for as long as such a thing remains possible for the lucky/worthy/chosen few, because none of that mattered and nothing was learned, and that was the point. And above one of the doors covered by red velvet drapes is a sign and on the sign in letters that match the drapes’ color are the words THIS IS NOT AN EXIT.
PS – American Psycho (the novel, not the film) reference, if anyone’s wondering about that last line.
PPS – I’m currently reaching the end of a Bret Easton Ellis marathon and occasionally dipping my toes in Baudrillard for context. American Psycho and Glamorama channel the spirit of the 90s in the best and only way it can be, a relentlessly cynically self-aware self-parody, signifying nothing.
Nice comment
It is, in essence, an update of Plato’s cave — rewritten for the age of silicon, pixels, and artificial light.
In Plato’s version, people were chained inside a cave, watching the shadows of real objects cast behind them. They believed those shadows were reality itself.
In jupiviv’s version, the shadows have been replaced by images on glass — tablets, screens, dashboards, “AI interfaces” — but the structure remains the same: a civilization living within reflections of reflections, utterly convinced of their reality.
There is, however, one crucial difference from Plato:
in his myth, someone could still escape, see the daylight, return, and tell others what he had seen. In the contemporary cave, that exit no longer exists. The red velvet curtains with the sign “This is not an exit” are the ultimate modernization of that idea: the door is still there, but it leads nowhere.
The fire that once cast the shadows in Plato’s cave has been replaced by the energy of the fossil age — the fuel that literally powers our worlds of illusion. And now that this fire is fading, only the images remain, without warmth, without origin.
In that sense, his text is a kind of post-philosophical requiem:
the human being who no longer wishes to leave the cave, because outside it has become too cold, too silent, too real.
And yet — somewhere between those lines, you can still feel a trace of Plato’s ancient light: the realization that even if there is no longer an exit, simply seeing the cave itself may still be a form of liberation.
I love our C & E philosophers!
Cassandra, thanks by the way for your musical link of Barber.
I live somewhere far away in Europe in the mountains overlooking the west and the ever-changing light, seasons and animals around me. I play the piano, for a few hours every day, overlooking the valley with its rising wisps of fog, summer green and winter white .
The combination of landscape light and music is literally an ‘almost timeless change’ for me.
In the in winter, I regularly play piano music by Arvo Pärt. After that, I can handle C&E again !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zj0sd4i_2AE&list=RDZj0sd4i_2AE&start_radio=1
Wow, Zip, how wonderful that you play piano too! I must admit the only Arvo Part I am familiar with is Spiegel im Spiegel which I love. But I do like the one you linked to, too. Dreamy. I can see why it rejuvenates you.
Yes, indeed, Cassandra. Thank you, Zip and Jupiviv for your thought-provoking comments.
It occurs to me that the reaction collapse-aware people get from the mainstream is akin to the hostility and disbelief the prisoner encounters when he returns to the cave to enlighten the others.
I read “American Psycho” as a young man and didn’t particularly enjoy it; I think because I was a horror fan and went in expecting a slasher novel rather than a surreal satire. I loved the movie, though. I mean, can anyone not love Christian Bale’s towering performance in that?!
Never waste a “good” crisis, you say….be careful what you say….may have a plateful coming out way, Jack…
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tariffs-are-the-wake-up-call-supply-chains-needed-arkestro-says
Tariffs are the wake-up call supply chains needed, Arkestro says
AI-powered procurement aims to help enterprises react to supply chains disruptions faster
Edmund Zagorin, co-founder and chief strategy officer of Arkestro, believes the current tariff war and trade volatility could spur lasting transformation in the global supply chain.
“Never waste a good crisis,” Zagorin told FreightWave. “Leaders that are savvy are using this as a way to say, ‘look, there’s a lot of changes we’ve wanted to make. There’s never been a better moment to take AI and use it to perform some of these tasks that are very resource intensive.’”
Zagorin said supply chain leaders should view tariffs not just as a cost to manage — but as an opportunity to accelerate innovation and resilience.
“The cost of complying with tariffs — not even the tariffs themselves — has reached between 1% and 3% of the cost of every product,” Zagorin said. “Companies are spending enormous time and energy just figuring out what rules apply, and that’s unsustainable. The leaders I talk to are using this moment to rethink how procurement operates.”
….Zagorin said the idea for Arkestro came from recognizing how much time procurement teams waste responding to inflated supplier quotes. Most companies already possess vast data on what they’ve paid and what they want to pay — data that could be used proactively, he said.
By applying AI and simulation, Arkestro can predict negotiation outcomes and generate “suggested offers” for suppliers to review, flipping the traditional dynamic. This approach, Zagorin said, can cut 60% to 90% of sourcing time while improving pricing accuracy and decision speed.
We are marching faster toward the Seneca Cliff as we fool ourselves it all can just be managed..
Vince, as absurd in many ways as our current mania for AI is, this is an application that makes sense to me.
I see they got you too.said Wilson,
They got me long time ago
Makes cents to me…
Soooo… Casssandra and Pan,
Given that this is classical music month, I have an album which is not exactly classical, but invokes much of what we (or me personally) might look for in such a possible collapse musical engagement experience. Basically meaning ‘collapse cope music’ in simple terms.
Global Communications: 76:14 (1994) wherein each track is named after their length:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwH2rML4cls&list=PLg7qmEtdkxLt0MpiprqB5OTJXi3XfSBCp
More information for those who love facts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/76:14
Thank you, James.
“76:14 is featured in The Guardian’s 1,000 Albums to Hear Before You Die list, where it is described as an “unfathomably beautiful out-of-time masterpiece,” says Wiki. High praise indeed!
And I see it was released back in 1994. I think there must have been a bit of an ambient movement in the UK at that time, although I was only aware of it through Aphex Twin and the KLF’s Chill Out album (the latter band notorious in these parts for burning a million quid in cash on the island of Jura).
I can put together threads with music on, though not stuff with lyrics, so I’ll give 76.14 a go.
I never heard of it before. I dipped into a number of the tracks. Definitely interesting! Will explore more. Thanks for sharing!
Correction– 76:14
https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-bubbles-impossible-promises/
Ai bubbles impossible promises
Thanks, Heather. That’s well worth a read.
On X Global Markets Investor is reporting: “Number of news mentioning AI bubble has jumped to ~380, the second-highest on record. Meanwhile, 54% of professional investors say AI stocks are in bubble, while 60% say stocks overvalued, according to BofA survey.”
https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1978090918373662866
https://www.youtube.com/live/W_j41jUHRzY?si=d6-0NP7ikUZU_f13
Crypo will not save us. An interview with a programmer who worked in the financial sector and set up these systems
The greatest show on earth (with Richard Dawkins), Nightwish: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrMwxe2ya5E
“We were here”…
Epic stuff, Craig.
“We are going to die, and that makes us the lucky ones
Most people are never going to die because they are never going to be born
The potential people who could have been here in my place
But who will in fact never see the light of day outnumber the sand grains of Sahara
Certainly those unborn ghosts include greater poets than Keats, scientists greater than Newton
We know this because the set of possible people allowed by our DNA
So massively exceeds the set of actual people
In the teeth of these stupefying odds it is you and I, in our ordinariness, that are here
We privileged few, who won the lottery of birth against all odds
How dare we whine at our inevitable return to that prior state
From which the vast majority have never stirred?”
https://medium.com/option-x/why-nightwishs-the-greatest-show-on-earth-is-also-one-of-the-greatest-songs-dfc703f658a3