Many thanks to my October donor, Cassandra, who suggests this month listening daily to Adagio for Strings (one of the west’s most famous concert pieces) while you read the C & E posts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQsgE0L450 (If you use the Brave browser it can play in the background even when not on that page, plus no ads!)
“Is the International Order Tilting Toward an Era of Permanent Tensions?
“The world is entering an era where conflict is no longer an exception but has become a permanent thread running through international relations. In this sense, the contemporary global order is not merely in transition; it is tilting into a zone of turbulence where regional wars, great power rivalries, and unprecedented alliances intertwine to shape an uncertain future.”
“Fragmenting global trade order calls on GCC to strengthen strategic autonomy.
“The backdrop is clear: the global economy is entering a new phase marked by sluggish growth. At the same time, rising geopolitical tensions and stalled multilateral agreements are fragmenting global trade flows, while supply chain disruptions have become increasingly common.”
“Global central banks are cutting interest rates as if there is a RECESSION:
“82% of world central banks have cut rates over the last 6 months, the highest share since the 2020 CRISIS. In the past, such a large percentage has only been seen during economic downturns.” [Global Markets Investor]
https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1972685447131201765
“Steering Into the storm: How US deregulation risks global financial crisis…
“President Trump is now actively dismantling mechanisms designed to identify and manage systemic financial and climate risks, writes Eliot Whittington, executive director of the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL).”
“Foreign Central Banks now own more Gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time in almost 30 years.”
[Barchart]
https://x.com/Barchart/status/1972954543345512526
“Global currency market swells to $10tn a day in tariff turmoil…
“Tuesday’s report also underlined the burst of currency hedging this year by global investors trying to protect themselves from volatility as the US dollar had its worst start to the year in decades.”
https://www.ft.com/content/aa2c6792-2c64-4567-8285-dea6e062b7f0
“US vows to maintain tariffs regardless of Supreme Court ruling.
“Jamieson Greer says Trump administration has other ways to impose levies if use of emergency powers is struck down… [and] has warned that Washington will continue to hit its trading partners with tariffs even if some are ruled illegal by the Supreme Court later this year.”
https://www.ft.com/content/b1deb172-3c11-4a81-85ee-8e21a7fc31c4
“Trump’s tariffs trigger unlikely crime wave across US.
“Donald Trump’s tariffs have triggered an explosion in cargo theft across the US as organised gangs target truck drivers. Drugmakers, clothes manufacturers and electronics companies are grappling with “unprecedented” numbers of crimes, which have surged by a third year-on-year…”
“US government shutdown starts as Trump threatens mass layoffs…
“Eric Ham, a Washington, DC-based political analyst, says the US constitution was designed by the founding fathers to “create debate, create negotiation” – the opposite of how the government shutdown is playing out… “Now this is a game of chicken that’s gone overboard and we’re still watching to see which side is going to blink first.””
“Credit crunch risk rises for regional banks in US shutdown.
“A US government shutdown on October 1 could squeeze regional banks through missed rent and loan payments, as experts warn allies of Donald Trump may seize the disruption as political cover to weaken federal banking supervisors.”
https://www.thebanker.com/content/4c7f2333-21f2-458f-b95a-9929c8bd9ee1
“Top Asia Industrial Engines Show Signs of Tariff Stress.
“China’s factory activity extended its decline into a sixth month, the longest slump since 2019, as the economy descends into a slowdown after a growth spurt to start the year… Factory output in Japan fell for a second month as exporters remained cautious.”
“Seoul holds emergency meeting with pharma exporters to address US tariffs…
“Chaired by the director-general of the Health Industry Policy Bureau at the Ministry of Health and Welfare, the meeting was arranged to listen to companies’ difficulties stemming from the U.S. tariff imposition trend and explore practical government support measures for businesses.”
https://www.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=29174
“Rout in Japanese bonds heralds ‘pivotal change’…
“The Japanese government bond market — still dominated by the Bank of Japan, which owns half of it — has suffered a brutal sell-off that has pushed the benchmark 10-year yield in recent months above 1.5 per cent to its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.”
https://www.ft.com/content/9cc54fb8-107d-4b17-aa04-83120be20ae9
“Tensions running high within Government over tightest budget in years [Ireland].
“With less than a week before it is announced, no senior Minister had last night agreed their financial allocation for next year as the department holds firm on spending demands, according to several people involved in the process.”
“UK business confidence plunges to lowest level on record…
“The industry group’s monthly economic confidence index, which measures business leader optimism about the prospects of the UK economy, posted a minus 74 reading for September.”
“Britain paying highest industrial electricity prices in the world for second year running.
“New data published on Tuesday showed the price paid by UK industry for power was 63pc higher than in France and 27pc higher than in Germany. Britain is also the second-most expensive country in the world for household electricity…”
“France Most Likely to Face Bond Crisis, Deutsche Bank Poll Shows.
“France is the country most likely to encounter a government bond crisis in the next two years, topping peers including the UK and US, according to a Deutsche Bank AG survey. More than half of respondents to the survey, conducted Sept. 22 to 25, ranked France as most vulnerable…”
“The euro ‘stablecoin’: how this new crypto venture could threaten the eurozone’s already fragile economy…
“A euro stablecoin might seem great, but there is one major condition to maintaining its value: everyone has to trust these particular banks. We know that this isn’t always the case – people can quickly lose faith in banks, and banks often don’t even trust each other. In a financial crisis, trust can vanish overnight.”
“General strike in Greece over 13-hour workday plans…
“The main private sector union GSEE, which is spearheading the walkout alongside public sector union ADEDY, has said the reform “endangers the health and safety of workers and destroys the balance between professional and personal life”.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20251001-general-strike-in-greece-over-13-hour-workday-plans
“Farmers: We continue protests and blockades throughout Serbia.
“Their demands remained the same – immediate payment of all outstanding debts from previous years, excise-free fuel directly at the pumps, as well as immediate removal of phantom farms from the system. Farmers are also demanding the refinancing of existing agricultural loans with an interest rate of one percent.”
https://vreme.com/en/vesti/poljoprivrednici-nastavljamo-proteste-i-blokade-sirom-srbije/
“Germany seeks to extradite Ukrainian diver over 2022 Nord Stream gas pipeline attack.
“Germany is seeking to extradite a Ukrainian man arrested in Poland on suspicion of diving down to the Baltic sea bed to plant explosives in the 2022 Nord Stream gas pipeline attack. The man, identified in Polish media reports as Volodymyr Z and by Germany as Vladimir Z, is described as a trained diver…”
“Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says situation ‘critical’ at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is “critical” as the facility has been without power for seven days. “It has been seven days now. There has never been anything like this before,” Zelenskyy said…”
“Russia declares partial diesel export ban until year-end, extends gasoline ban…
“The measures reflect the success Ukraine has had in knocking out chunks of Russia’s refining capacity via drone attacks. Russia is the world’s third-biggest oil producer after the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Gasoline shortages have been reported in a number of Russian regions…”
“Sanctions fears stymie Russian companies’ panda bond sales push in China.
“Russian companies’ plans to tap China’s vast bond market for low-cost funding are proving to be a non-starter as Chinese banks and investors steer clear of them on concerns about Western sanctions, sources said. The conundrum shows the challenges Russian companies face to raise capital…”
“China’s military sees threat in expanded US drills with Japan and South Korea…
“The opinion piece – by Ji Cheng from the People’s Liberation Army Academy of Military Sciences and published in the PLA Daily on Tuesday – referred to the growing pace and complexity of various multilateral military exercises held in recent weeks.”
“Japan is arming a warship with US missiles that can hit targets up to 1,000 miles away as Pacific arms race heats up.
“A Japanese warship is on the way to the United States to be fitted with Tomahawk cruise missiles, the latest move by Washington and its Asian allies to beef up firepower as adversaries like China and North Korea expand theirs.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/01/asia/japan-warship-tomahawk-missiles-intl-hnk-ml
“Rohingya ask UN ‘where is the justice’ amid Myanmar violence, aid cuts…
““Now this message is for the world leaders and the United Nations: It has already been more than eight years since the Rohingya genocide was exposed. Where is justice for the Rohingya? Where?” Sawyeddollah asked. He then held up a photograph of the bodies of several people lying in a river…”
“Crackdowns And Unrest Shake Pakistan-Controlled Kashmir And Balochistan.
“Over the past week, Pakistan-occupied Jammu & Kashmir (PoJK) and Balochistan have been gripped by a wave of state-led crackdowns, enforced disappearances, and violent clashes between civilians and security forces, revealing deepening unrest…”
“Taliban internet blackout has created an extreme scenario in Afghanistan with far-reaching consequences.
“Flights have been grounded and and no one can contact family, friends, the emergency services or hospitals amid the shutdown – an indication of how quickly this country can turn and the power the Taliban has to disrupt and reshape its future.”
“Sadr warns Iraq could collapse in 12 hours as tensions rise with elections inching closer…
“Sadr sharply warned Iraq’s leaders that focusing on power instead of solving urgent crises—such as water shortages, pollution, deteriorating electricity blackouts, weak healthcare, poor education, and a struggling economy—will endanger the nation.”
https://www.newarab.com/news/sadr-warns-iraq-could-collapse-12-hours-amid-rising-tensions
“Druze seek Sweida autonomy and turn toward Israel, adding new twist to Syria’s tensions.
“Druze groups have set up a de facto military and governmental body in Sweida, similar to the Kurdish-led authorities in the country’s northeast. It is a major setback for Damascus struggling to exert its authority across the country…”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/syria-bashar-assad-israel-damascus-beirut-b2837027.htm
“Gaza latest: Thunberg aid flotilla ‘aggressively circled’ by Israeli warship; clock counts down on Hamas to accept peace plan.
“Time is running out for Hamas to accept Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan – or face US-sanctioned “destruction” by Israel. Meanwhile, an aid flotilla approaching Gaza with Greta Thunberg and Susan Sarandon aboard has entered the “high-risk zone”.”
https://news.sky.com/story/gaza-trump-peace-plan-netanyahu-hamas-war-latest-tony-blair-13440749
“Yemen’s Houthis claim responsibility for attack on Dutch-flagged ship.
“Yemen’s Houthi militants claimed responsibility on Wednesday for an attack on the Dutch-flagged general cargo ship Minervagracht, which caught fire in the Gulf of Aden. The Iran-aligned group has launched numerous assaults on vessels in the Red Sea since 2023…”
“The Guardian view on catastrophe in Darfur: the world has looked away, but Sudan’s civilians can’t wait any longer…
“…a conflict that has created the world’s largest humanitarian crisis has remained largely ignored as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza have consumed international attention. In the runup to the UN general assembly in New York last week, the US finally appeared to be making a push for action.”
“Police in Madagascar have fired tear gas as hundreds of young protesters returned to the streets of the capital, despite the president agreeing to dissolve his government…
“The UN’s human rights chief previously said security forces had used “unnecessary force” to quell the unrest, adding that at least 22 people were killed and 100 others injured.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y5j98p4pjo
“Moroccan streets see fourth day of protests amid rising tensions.
“Protests led by young demonstrators continued for a fourth consecutive day across several Moroccan cities, with gatherings turning into clashes between protesters and security forces on Tuesday, according to local media and rights groups.”
https://www.libyanexpress.com/moroccan-streets-see-fourth-day-of-protests-amid-rising-tensions/
“Foreign minister for Colombia ‘renounces’ her US visa as tensions between the two nations escalates…
“The U.S. State Department revoked President Petro’s visa on Friday after he participated in a New York protest against the war in Gaza, in which Petro called for the creation of an international army to liberate the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.”
“Nicolás Maduro ready to declare state of emergency if US attacks Venezuela, says vice-president.
“Rodríguez said that the state of emergency – if activated – would immediately give Maduro special powers to mobilize the armed forces, to seal the country’s borders and to place the military in charge of key infrastructure. “We will never handover our homeland – never!” she vowed.”
“The $270 Trillion Opportunity That Awaits Climate Tech Founders…
“Todd Khozein, co-CEO of SecondMuse, reminded audiences that the climate economy is unlike anything humanity has faced. “McKinsey identified it as a $270 trillion economic transition between now and 2050. Almost certainly the largest economic transition humanity will have gone through by a country mile,” he said. That figure is staggering, but it is also a sign of opportunity.”
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
“economic transition” by 2050.
Give me some whiskey to chase down the vomit in my mouth!
Right? The world is a tinderbox soaked in gas right now.
As for 2050 that’s more like “Bronze Age Collapse” with a hint of “End-Permian” a generation or two afterwards.
We’re drowning in the stuff here on Islay. Bottles are often exchanged as thank you’s or included in raffles, so I’ve got several around the house, even though I don’t drink it, and there are unimaginable quantities in the warehouses down the road.
Guess I should be grateful. It’s an important part of the local economy, even with Trump’s tariffs slapped on, and probably the closest thing we’ll have to anaesthetic in our “Bronze Age collapse with hint of End-Permian” future.
“The $270 Trillion Opportunity That Awaits Climate Tech Founders…”
Now that’s just sad. What is this 80s/90s era techno boy scout crap? Has he learned nothing from the COP30 rental saga? Starry-eyed optimism is cringe now. You gotta make it look dark and gritty and problematic and THEN get your hook in! Get with the program bro!
Speaking of AI. Everyone is “suddenly” realizing that a stock bubble driving the economy is bad, because the bubble is in turn driven by AI mania, which would need genuine economic growth coming from sources other than AI to pay for itself or the economy will worsen. Attempting to pay for AI by replacing employees with it en masse is a reformulation of the same problem. So recession it is unless Climate Boy over there swoops in to save the day at the last minute.
Jupiviv, even as business confidence plumbs new lows here in the UK, our stock market is hitting new heights. I’m sure it’s a harmless discrepancy. 🙄
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/londons-ftse-100-hits-new-record-high-healthcare-stocks-surge-2025-10-01/
Nothing to really add than say, thanks Cassandra for your apt tune of choice. I’ve always loved classical music and this is great background music to doom scroll to. Although, it should be called reality-scroll. But, ya know.
Hey Cassandra, for me Chopin’s Prelude in D Flat Major really encapsulates the 5 stages of grief regarding the poly-crisis. Sometimes, I feel like I’m experiencing all stages at once in an all-encompassing omni-present!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2d2spnXyLA
That is a gorgeous piece of music, James. I do indeed like Chopin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dtrgwqei7ww
No, Pan, just no. 🤪
I guess it is just the tiniest bit corny. 😂
Thanks, James! I love that piece too. i actually learned how to play it, though not quite as well as Lang Lang, haha.
For myself, I find Chopin’s funeral march darker than the Raindrop. Here it is played by the beautiful Khatia Buniatishvili who I was lucky enough to see perform once a number of years back.
https://youtu.be/vtETOqST3ag
I predict the us government will not function soon as they put all their eggs into must go to war basket and cut everything else. Forget your passport because it doesn’t work. Forget going to the airport their are no controllers left to run things. Need water wait we need power for that. This will be nasty spiral down hill. At least i have some strong whiskey on hand.
“…as they put all their eggs into must go to war basket.”
Heather, I thought Hegseth’s speech was pretty eyebrow-raising:
““We unleash overwhelming and punishing violence on the enemy,” Hegseth said. “We also don’t fight with stupid rules of engagement. We untie the hands of our warfighters to intimidate, demoralize, hunt and kill the enemies of our country.””
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/30/politics/hegseth-speech-culture-standards
Rules of engagement? International law? Phhhhhht. Out with that horseshit.
Heather is spot on. Good luck, everyone!
Hegseth is cringe wannabe with no friends and pretty much everyone currently serving knows it.
There is something very immature about his tough-guy posturing, for sure.