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“Echoes of 2007 grow louder as risky debt, buyouts raise concerns.
“Massive leveraged buyouts. An ever-growing pile of risky debt. Early signs that subprime consumers are falling behind. It may not be 2007 all over again, but history is at least rhyming here.”
“In fifty years as a City writer, I’ve never felt so worried a terrible financial crash is coming. The warning signs are EVERYWHERE…
“We are very possibly heading for a historic crash, one that could presage all manner of impoverishment, ruined careers, decimated retirement prospects, social unrest – and worse.”
“U.S. Stock Market hits most expensive valuation in history, surpassing the Dot Com Bubble and the run-up to the Great Depression.”
[Barchart]
https://x.com/Barchart/status/1972044761159827473
“Gold Holds Near Record as Traders Weigh US Shutdown, Fed Rates.
“Gold edged higher — after notching a sixth weekly gain — as traders weighed a potential US government shutdown that could delay the release of pivotal jobs data this week and potentially cloud the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.”
“Here’s what is so different about the brewing government shutdown…
“The clash between President Donald Trump and congressional Democrats comes against the backdrop of the most aggressive attempt by a president to impose unfettered power in modern times. So the shutdown brinkmanship will take on a wider narrative of whether a rampant president can be slowed or stopped on any issue.”
“Xi to ask Trump to oppose Taiwan independence in return for trade deal…
“The Chinese leader is hoping to capitalise on the success of the recent agreement on TikTok’s future in the US and Mr Trump’s desire to secure a favourable trade deal to pressure Washington to abandon its support for Taipei.”
“China’s factory activity likely slows again amid weak demand, trade tensions.
“China’s factory activity probably shrank for a sixth straight month in September, keeping alive calls for more stimulus in the world’s second-largest economy to fend off a sharp slowdown as a U.S. trade deal remains distant.”
“‘My kids are too scared to go outside’: Kurdish migrants face hostility as Japan wrestles with demographic crisis…
“The hostility towards migrant communities visible in the UK, Europe and the US appears to be spreading to Japan, whose foreign population stood at a record 3.8 million at the start of the year – although that is still just under 3% of the population.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/29/kurdish-migrants-japan-kurds-immigration
“Britain may already be at war with Russia because of the depth and intensity of cyber-attacks, sabotage and other hostile activity orchestrated by Moscow against the UK, according to a former head of MI5.
“Eliza Manningham-Buller, who led the domestic spy agency two decades ago, said she agreed with comments made by the Russia expert Fiona Hill…”
“The government has said it will underwrite a £1.5bn loan guarantee to Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) as the carmaker battles the consequences of a recent cyber-attack.
“JLR had to suspend production at its UK factories for several weeks after being targeted by hackers with the shutdown expected to last until at least 1 October.”
“Recession fears grow as job ads slump and high street suffers [UK].
“The bleak jobs outlook came as separate data revealed businesses were becoming increasingly pessimistic. Companies across the private sector expect activity to continue to fall in the next three months, according to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).”
“‘We are already in a hybrid war with Russia’: EU Commissioner Dombrovskis.
“We sit down with Valdis Dombrovskis, EU Commissioner for Economy and Productivity and a former prime minister of Latvia. He comments on the recent drone incursions into EU airspace.”
“Pro-EU party secures majority in high-stakes Moldovan election.
“With more than 99.8 percent of the ballots counted, and a re-allocation of votes for parties that didn’t make the threshold yet to come, PAS is well ahead with more than 50.14 percent of the vote compared with 24.2 percent for the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP).”
https://www.politico.eu/article/polls-moldova-vote-eu-path-russia-interference-election-ballots/
“Denmark reports more drone sightings ahead of European summits.
“Danish authorities have said drones were seen at several military sites overnight and announced that all civilian use of the unmanned aircraft will be banned this week, as Copenhagen prepares to host two European summits.”
“Poland briefly closes airspace as NATO increases presence in the Baltic Sea.
“The deployment on Sunday of Polish and allied aircraft in the country’s airspace comes as the transatlantic security bloc NATO announced that it is upgrading its mission in the Baltic Sea in response to drone incursions in Denmark and reported drone sightings in Norway.”
“Peace-loving Sweden forced into rethink on nuclear weapons…
“It is not the only European country where these questions are being contemplated. Poland has appealed for a stake in both the French and American nuclear deterrents… German politicians, too, have discussed taking part in some form of European deterrent…”
“Ukraine’s capital Kyiv came under another massive drone and missile attack, with further damage wrought on infrastructure and residential areas…
“Explosions were heard in several other regions of Ukraine, according to local authorities. There is no exact information on the scale of the attack. Neighboring Poland said it scrambled fighter jets due to the attack over Ukraine.”
“US President Donald Trump has authorized Ukraine to launch long-range strikes against Russia, according to US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg on Fox News.
“Kellogg says Donald Trump authorized long-range strikes against Russia, “but occasionally, Ukraine has not been granted authority by the Pentagon to carry them out.””
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/trump-greenlights-ukraine-to-strike-deep-1759125255.html
“Putin’s war machine is now built into the Russian economy.
“Years of massive defense outlays have locked the country in a state of militarization that’s transformed factories and sucked in hundreds of thousands of workers. The surge has helped prevent the economy from shrinking — making retreat perilous.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/09/29/world/politics/putin-war-machine-russian-economy/
“Why the World Can’t Easily Wean Itself Off Russian Nuclear Fuel.
“Russia supplies roughly 40% of the world’s enriched uranium, leaving the EU and other nations dependent despite efforts to diversify… The U.S., U.K., and Europe are investing in domestic uranium mining and enrichment capacity, but new projects face high costs, regulatory hurdles, and long lead times.”
“China and North Korea agree to resist ‘hegemony’, Foreign Ministry says…
“Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with his North Korean counterpart, Choe Son Hui, in Beijing on Sunday, weeks after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un travelled to China to join an event marking the anniversary of Japan’s defeat in World War II.”
“Will growing Philippines-Vietnam naval ties reshape South China Sea diplomacy?
“A pledge between the Philippines and Vietnam to deepen naval cooperation could serve as a “model for maritime collaboration” amid mounting tensions in the South China Sea, according to observers.”
“Deep roots of rage as India’s Ladakh seeks self-rule…
“Modi’s government split Ladakh off from Indian-administered Kashmir in 2019, imposing direct rule on both after cancelling the region’s partial autonomy. Since then, resentment has been growing in Ladakh over New Delhi’s rule, with concerns about losing traditional livelihoods, land rights and cultural identity.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/09/29/asia-pacific/politics/india-ladakh-self-rule/
“Iran will enter a war with the United States if Israel launches a new attack on the Islamic Republic, a senior Iranian official and former chief commander of the Revolutionary Guard said on Sunday.
“”The Zionists (Israel) are seeking to try their luck against Iran once again,” Major General Mohsen Rezaei told the state TV.”
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202509280080
“Israeli strikes left Syria ‘stunned’ and makes normalization ‘difficult,’ Syrian foreign minister says…
““We are no threat to anyone in the region, including Israel, but these new policies of cooperation and peace were met by these threats and strikes,” al-Shibani said…”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/28/middleeast/israel-syria-normalization-strikes-intl
“‘Most people are just toughing it out’: shortage of drugs leaves Gaza’s wounded without pain relief…
“More than 167,000 Palestinians have been injured in Gaza since 7 October 2023, according to Gaza’s health ministry. From burns and blast wounds to lost limbs and fractured bones, Gaza’s hospitals have been overwhelmed by patients in profound pain.”
“Madagascar protesters gather once more, days after unrest began.
“Hundreds of mostly young protesters faced off against security forces in Madagascar’s capital on Saturday, September 27, days after an anti-government demonstration erupted into clashes and looting.”
“Young Moroccans clash with police while protesting stadium spending and health system decline.
“Youth-led demonstrators clashed with police over the weekend in some of Morocco’s largest anti-government protests in years, denouncing what they called the government’s misplaced priorities.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/morocco-casablanca-agadir-rabat-police-b2835343.html
“The US navy killed 17 in deadly strikes. Now Venezuela is giving civilians guns…
“The rag-tag force, mainly made up of senior citizens, has been called up following the deployment of US navy ships in the South Caribbean on what US officials said were counter-narcotics operations.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y5q173053o
“Peso Crisis Drives Mortgage Rates to 15%, Upending Milei Agenda…
“In the mortgage market, Banco Ciudad had already stopped making new loans altogether, according to people familiar with the pause. Other major lenders tightened credit standards and pushed up mortgage rates sharply.”
“Violent clash over fuel prices in Ecuador leaves 1 protester dead and 12 soldiers injured.
“A violent clash Sunday in Ecuador between law enforcement authorities and Indigenous people protesting the end of a fuel subsidy left one civilian dead and 12 soldiers injured… Sunday marked the seventh day of protests. A state of emergency and curfew remained in effect…”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/ecuador-quito-b2835414.html
“Peru: Second weekend of mass protests and repression.
“The Peruvian capital has experienced another weekend of mobilisations, in a second wave of protests called by the so-called “Generation Z”, transportation unions, and social organisations, against changes to pension laws and expressing discontent with the controversial government.”
https://freedomnews.org.uk/2025/09/29/peru-second-weekend-of-mass-protests-and-repression/
“Hollywood stars are speaking out in protest after an “AI actress” named Tilly Norwood attracted agency interest.
“Norwood is an entirely virtual creation owned by Xicoia, a talent studio attached to the AI production company Particle6. Deadline reported yesterday that several Hollywood talent agents are interested in signing Norwood.”
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““In the mortgage market, Banco Ciudad had already stopped making new loans altogether, according to people familiar with the pause. Other major lenders tightened credit standards and pushed up mortgage rates sharply.”
Argentina is a unique case – a colony of European settlement that missed out on the early 20th c industrialization bonanza, due to a combination of the Monroe doctrine, lack of fossil fuel reserves and being less lucrative as an export destination for metropolitan capital than other settler colonies. Australia had Mummy Britannia to kiss it better, but Spain couldn’t take care of herself let alone her wayward children. Argentina is what most of Europe and Oceania would be today without colonial resource/labour parasitism and Uncle Sam’s leering munificence.
Anyway, WW2’s one time export bonanza was an opportunity for development which was seized upon by the bureaucratic middle classes leading the fledgling proletariat and peasantry aka Peronism. Industrialization was rapid but stunted, and the newly established welfare state was essentially a complex web of top-down handouts intended to bribe the masses rather than liberate them. Communists were good if they yapped, bad if they barked. Then the good times ended and a long line of ad hoc juntas alternating with doomed reenactments later, here we are. Tragedy, farce and sleazy late night drama. Ow would you like that monsieur, all mixed up togezher in a bucket?
Thanks, Jupiviv, for that potted history. It’s not a country I’ve ever visited or know a huge amount about.
A very good friend of mine is convinced that Patagonia will be good place to ride out out impending societal challenges. Argentina does have a couple of nuclear power stations but they are quite a long way north of where he’d intend to go.
Interesting how that Guardian article about the JLR factory shutdown paints the picture that the UK government is coming to the aid of a UK business: no mention that JLR is a unit of Tata, an Indian company. I know, I know, jobs and the economy…
Leaf, that is a good point. These cyber-attacks are proving a real pain in the arse, which is precisely the intention, I suppose.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c071e7x80djo
Hello Pan,
Just a word about Argentina also in response to your note on the 26the about that Vaca Muerta gas and shale oil “boom”. Seems fantastic but with that goes Argentina it not make it. I briefly worked it out in my global energy overview 🙂 Here a summary
At first glance, the numbers look impressive. In August 2025, Argentina’s oil production reached 818,000 barrels per day, with more than half coming from Vaca Muerta.
That is close to the country’s all-time high of 847,000 bpd in 1998. Operators claim shale output is profitable at prices as low as $40 per barrel. For a country mired in economic crisis, this seems like a rare success.
But behind this apparent boom lies a deeper paradox.
Argentina remains a net importer: domestic oil consumption runs at 750,000–800,000 bpd, leaving little room for sustained exports. Gas shows the same pattern: production of about 45 bcm against consumption of 50 bcm. Bolivia, once a reliable supplier via pipeline, can barely deliver today, forcing Argentina into expensive LNG imports paid in scarce U.S. dollars.
Refining compounds the problem. Argentina’s capacity roughly matches domestic output, but aging plants are poorly suited to the new light shale oil. The country exports part of its crude to earn dollars while simultaneously importing diesel, vital for agriculture and transport.
On top of this sits financial collapse. With mortgage rates at 15% and banks halting new credit, raising the tens of billions needed for pipelines, processing plants, and an LNG terminal is almost impossible. Without that infrastructure, Vaca Muerta remains a domestic reservoir rather than the export engine presented in PowerPoint slides.
This is the pipeline paradox: geology promises abundance, but the economy cannot deliver it to market. The Presidente Néstor Kirchner pipeline, opened in 2023, is only a token step. Additional trunklines, fractionation plants, and an LNG terminal would require $20–30 billion and a decade of stability — three things Argentina does not have.
Thus Vaca Muerta has become both symbol of hope and illusion. Output rises, yet the peso falls, import bills climb, and the country remains trapped in the Export Land Model dynamic: consumption ≥ production. Patagonia’s giant flares brightly, but it will not save Argentina.
Zip at his Debbie Downer best. Keep up the great commentary! ❤️ 😱
Thank you for that, Zip. I suspected there were a few flies of that nature in the ointment. Many versions of that same war of attrition between optimistic planning and rudely intruding financial/geopolitical/energetic realities seem to be playing out across the world.
Spotted a rather sad story in today’s FT about Aberdeen, from where my grandfather hailed:
“How Europe’s ‘oil capital’ glory days were ended by the global oil crash… “In the early 1990s, one ATM on Aberdeen’s grand thoroughfare Union Street boasted the highest value of withdrawals in Europe… But Scotland’s third largest city — unlike other fossil fuel hubs — has struggled to recover from the global oil slump of 2014, when prices plummeted 75 per cent over two years to $27 a barrel…
“Weakness in the historic fossil fuel sector is cascading through the wider north-east economy, where one in six workers is engaged in offshore energy — two-thirds of them in oil and gas.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2d7a63cb-2dc0-4d51-9b78-a1925c0bd00f
My bright idea of the day: if they can replace actors with AI versions, let’s replace soldiers with AI versions. The digital versions can fight it out.
Cassandra, that is a brilliant idea. Perhaps we could have AI politicians as well. They couldn’t be any worse than the real ones. Surely? 😂
Cassandra,
I can not provide you with any links, but for better or worse, I am sure that your idea of the day is being worked on and has been worked on for quite some time already.
Can you imagine an army of hard to destroy robots that was not capable of disobeying my orders?
Can you imagine an army of hard to destroy robots that was capable of deciding to obey someone or somthing elses orders?
On the topic of fighting. We are being told that Russia is a threat to the people of western Europe. But they are not even here yet and the leaders of western europe are a threat to the people of western europe now.
The leaders of the west tell us that the Russian are a threat yet they have not even been able to capture one Ukrianian City in a long time.
The Russian could never occupy Europe unless they were welcomed with open arms like the Americans were in 1945.
But what the Russians easily do if they were pushed to do so is blow up a lot of bridges in western Europe with convential weapons.
Of course I imagine that would cause the west to retaliate if the Russians did that. Therefore it would not even take a nuclear war to bring about the collapse fo European Industrial civlization.
If lots of bridges are destroyed or even damaged that is lots of people that are not going to be able to get to work, and lots of supplies that are not going to get delivered. How will Europe keep limping along then?
Russia seeks to dominate the gaps in its natural defenses. It’s fairly straightforward geopolitics. Click on the map illustration.
https://www.thelightningpress.com/nine-gates-russia/?srsltid=AfmBOoqgYJsVjznC_HSKcPXV9LiWNtPis6u6Vp7bd390SGoCgwM6GHby
https://www.ktnv.com/news/fire-breaks-out-at-townsite-solar-in-boulder-city
Down we go as things burn
https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/openai-new-data-centers-more-power-new-york-city
Data center will draw more power than nyc! Ai is great! Down we go!