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“The world is facing multiple, interconnected risks, many of which have materialised into what has been called a global ‘polycrisis’…
“Calls to understand interconnections and feedbacks between different systems’ risks include around biodiversity loss and climate extremes and ‘synchronous failures’ that climate change could induce by exacerbating vulnerabilities in economic, water, land and food systems.
“Some inter-systemic risks have already been studied and even quantified, such as feedbacks between financial and real economic systems that could exacerbate financial crises.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-62029-w
“The global bond glut: a doom loop of financial repression…
“Worsening the negative impact of ample supply is the fragile demand for government bonds… if sovereign bonds lose value because the government’s creditworthiness is declining, the balance sheets of financial institutions suffer because they hold large amounts of domestic government bonds.
“Weakened financial institutions, in turn, may force the government to bail out the financial system. Such bailouts entail expenses for the government, casting a further shadow over their finances. This vicious circle can exacerbate economic downturns or even trigger purely panic-driven crises.”
https://www.omfif.org/2025/08/the-global-bond-glut-a-doom-loop-of-financial-repression/
“Hot U.S. inflation data rattles global bond markets.
“U.S. stagflation fears seeped into global markets on Thursday after surprisingly hot inflation data applied heavy pressure to U.S. Treasuries and sparked selling of government bonds everywhere from Germany to Japan.”
“China’s economy lags in July under pressure from tariffs and a weak property market.
“China’s economy showed signs of slowing in July as factory output and retail sales slowed and housing prices dropped further, according to data released Friday.”
“China’s first contraction in outstanding loans since 2005 has crystallized worries about a deepening downturn for the world’s second-largest economy…
“The flow of credit will dictate the economic tempo for years to come. For Beijing, the challenge now is in how to lift languishing domestic demand that threatens to hobble growth….”
“Trump’s 7 most authoritarian moves so far. The story of President Donald Trump’s first seven months back in office is the consolidation of power…
“Whether you think that’s a good thing (because that’s what the country needs) or a bad thing, that’s objectively the state of affairs. Trump has for years made no secret of his disregard for the limits of his power, and he’s governing accordingly.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/13/politics/authoritarian-moves-trump-analysis
“Young people are becoming increasingly authoritarian [UK].
“…one third of 18-30 year olds …would prefer an authoritarian system led by a decisive figure, even if it meant sacrificing some democratic freedoms… As victims of a two-year lockdown, a childhood in the murky waters of the financial crash, and facing the employment Armageddon of AI and a rising jobs tax, is it any wonder that so many young people feel this way?”
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/young-people-are-becoming-increasingly-authoritarian/
“Bond traders know that Britain’s in trouble…
“Britain’s £2.8 trillion of debt is more fragile than it looks, increasingly owned by flighty hedge funds and overseas investors. A quarter of it is inflation-linked, and quantitative tightening forces the Treasury to find new buyers at much less forgiving rates. It’s a dangerous mix.”
https://capx.co/the-bank-of-england-spooks-the-markets
“French borrowing costs close in on Italy’s as investors fret over debts.
“France’s long-term borrowing costs are converging with Italy’s for the first time since the global financial crisis, as nervous bond investors put the EU’s second-biggest economy on a level with a country that has been one of its most troubled borrowers.”
https://www.ft.com/content/6ab601d3-af8e-4950-b50a-6750cadb0b35
“Rival protester groups clash anew in Serbia amid escalating political crisis.
“Escalating anti-government protests in Serbia continued into late Thursday, as clashes between President Aleksandar Vucic’s critics and detractors over corruption accusations led to a second night of violence and arrests.”
“Putin to offer financial incentives to Trump at Ukraine summit…
“Key to Putin’s message on Friday will be an appeal to Trump’s business instincts. On Thursday, the Russian president’s adviser Yuri Ushakov said the leaders would discuss the “huge untapped potential” in Russia–US economic relations.”
“The Secret Channel Russia and Ukraine Use to Trade Prisoners of War…
“…without fanfare, Ukraine and Russia over the course of their war have managed to exchange more than 10,000 combatants across front lines and secure corridors in neighboring Belarus. They include some 1,200 soldiers traded in recent weeks…”
https://www.wsj.com/world/pow-trade-russia-ukraine-secret-channel-55bc49df
“New Zealand’s population exodus hits 13-year high as economy worsens.
“New Zealand citizens leaving the country have hit the highest levels in 13 years, with more than a third of those emigrating aged under 30 years as unemployment rises and economic growth remains soft.”
“Debt storm warning as economy faces slowdown [Thailand].
“The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has warned that if bad debts rise further and banks become overly cautious, effectively “closing the umbrella”, normal credit flows could be disrupted. Preparations are being made to manage a potential increase in NPLs…”
https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/business/economy/40054054
“Desperate Myanmar villagers scavenge for food as hunger bites.
“People in western Myanmar have been driven to scavenging for bamboo shoots, as humanitarian workers warn a wartime blockade and aid cutbacks led by Washington have caused hunger cases to surge.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/08/15/asia-pacific/myanmar-hunger-us-aid-cuts/
“India tightens import restrictions on Bangladeshi goods amid rising tensions.
“India has widened its ban on imports from Bangladesh through land ports, adding several jute-based products to the restricted list. The prohibited items include bleached and unbleached jute fabrics, jute twine, rope, cordage, and sacks.”
“‘Worse than Sub-Saharan Africa, Pakistan’: Financial planner warns of income crisis in India…
“Citing the Indus Valley Report, he underscored that around 1 billion Indians have “absolutely zero purchasing power,” spending only on bare necessities and surviving largely through government support. “As a country, we’ve a very long way to go,” he wrote.”
“India and Pakistan tensions spill over into contest over whose flagpole is bigger…
““While this ‘flagpole war’ might look like just a symbolic contest, it’s freighted with emotional and nationalist overtones, especially in the context of the India-Pakistan rivalry, where tensions touch people’s lives on both sides,” says Indian military expert Rahul Bedi.”
“No armed groups allowed in Lebanon, president tells Hezbollah’s ally Iran.
“No group in Lebanon is permitted to bear arms or rely on foreign backing, its president told a visiting senior Iranian official on Wednesday after the cabinet approved the goals of a U.S.-backed roadmap to disarm the Iran-aligned Hezbollah group.”
“War crimes likely committed by both sides in Syria coastal violence: UN…
“Some 1,400 people, mainly civilians, were reported killed during the violence that primarily targeted Alawite communities, and reports of violations have continued, according to the report released on Thursday by the UN Syria Commission of Inquiry.”
“Israeli minister unveils controversial West Bank settlements.
“Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said a plan to enlarge the Maale Adumim settlement will “bury” the idea of a Palestinian state. It comes as France, the UK and Canada will soon recognize Palestinian statehood.”
https://www.dw.com/en/israeli-minister-unveils-controversial-west-bank-settlements/a-73638319
“IDF troops given the heads up to prepare for Gaza offensive.
“Operation not expected to begin before September as the military attempts to allow the forces time to rest and recuperate before beginning the next phase of the war; reserve forces also put on alert to expect to be called up next month.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/by4yzuhdgx
“Red Sea Shipping Diversions to Enter a Third Year, CEO Says…
““We’ve all been pretty hopeful that a some point in time we’d be going back through Suez,” Rolf Habben Jansen of Hapag-Lloyd told Bloomberg Television on Thursday. “But if we look at where we are today, I think it is unlikely that we will return to Suez before the end of this year.””
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-08-14/trade-war-latest-red-sea-shipping-diversions
“Egypt rejects unilateral moves in Nile Basin, vows legal measures to protect ‘existential’ resources.
“Egypt reiterated its categorical rejection of any unilateral actions in the Eastern Nile Basin that violate international law in a joint statement by both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources on Thursday.”
“Sudan loses over a third of power output as war plunges cities into darkness…
“Experts estimate losses of around $5 billion from attacks by the renegade Rapid Support Forces on power stations, transformers, and high-voltage lines, with overall output down by more than 37 percent.”
https://www.newarab.com/news/sudan-loses-third-power-war-plunges-cities-darkness
“Mali junta accuses ‘foreign states’ of attempted destabilisation plot.
“Mali’s ruling military junta said Thursday it had arrested a French national suspected of working for French intelligence services and at least 55 soldiers for allegedly attempting to “destabilise the institutions of the republic” with the help of “foreign states.””
“Russia Hosts First Military Meeting With Sahel Juntas…
“The three Sahelian countries are led by juntas which seized power in coups and have turned away from former colonial power France while moving closer to Russia, which sends mercenaries to help them fight a jihadist insurgency.”
“Blackwater founder Erik Prince to send hundreds of fighters to strife-torn Haiti…
“According to Reuters, Prince’s new security firm, Vectus Global – which has been operating in the violence-ravaged Caribbean country since March – is preparing to intensify its activities there to help authorities win key roads and territories back from heavily armed criminal groups.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/14/erik-prince-blackwater-haiti
“How Bolivia’s Economic Crisis Is Shaping the Election.
“Bolivians are voting for president and congress on Aug. 17 amid unrest, shortages and the steepest inflation in more than three decades. Economic frustrations threaten to end the rule of the socialist party, which has held power almost without interruption since 2006.”
“Tensions Escalate in the Border Conflict Between Peru and Colombia…
“The two nations have long been embroiled in a disagreement over territorial delineation along the Amazon River, which frequently alters its course, creating new islands. According to the Peruvian police, the surveyors detained on Tuesday were equipped with satellite geo-referencing tools without the necessary permissions from Peru.”
https://al24news.dz/en/tensions-escalate-in-the-border-conflict-between-peru-and-colombia/
“China’s mega dam Xiluodu stops using Western industrial chips over security concerns.
“China’s Xiluodu Dam – one of the world’s largest hydropower stations – has fully transitioned away from Western-made industrial control chips over national security and supply chain resilience concerns, according to a leading Chinese industrial chip supplier.”
“Russian hackers seized control of Norwegian dam, spy chief says…
“The admission, by the Norwegian Police Security Service (PST), marks the first time that Oslo has formally attributed the cyber-attack in April on Bremanger, western Norway, to Moscow.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/14/russian-hackers-control-norwegian-dam-norway
“Lula’s Plan for Amazon COP30 Risks Becoming Logistics Mess…
“Accommodation prices have jumped to surpass luxury hotels in Rio de Janeiro. Reserving the one-bedroom “Doce Lar” (Sweet Home) apartment in Belém recently listed on Booking.com for the 11 days of the climate summit would cost a staggering 1.4 million reais ($267,380)… Fears are growing these prices could shut out poorer nations.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
Hello Pan,
A few thoughts following your article on Sudan’s collapsing energy infrastructure. This is a process that has already played out in many African countries — I know this from direct experience. What emerges is a grim energy reality.
The Diesel Generator Economy
When a national power grid collapses, there is rarely an immediate plunge into total darkness. Instead, there’s a transitional phase in which central generation capacity is badly damaged, but parts of the physical infrastructure — cables, transformers, substations — are still standing. That’s when emergency generators start to fill the gap.
In the first months, large diesel units are deployed, often sourced from government reserves, mining companies, or port facilities. They keep central hospitals, military bases, some water pumping stations, and the airport running. The rest of the economy relies on commercial or private solutions: small to medium-sized generators, often second-hand imports from Asia or Europe.
In urban areas such as Khartoum, Juba, or Mogadishu, generators soon become a constant part of the soundscape. The air fills with black diesel smoke, noise levels spike, and the streets are crisscrossed with improvised cables tapping electricity from a neighbour or shopkeeper. Supply is limited — often no more than four to six hours a day, depending on available fuel.
Fuel itself becomes the Achilles’ heel. Diesel has to be imported, is vulnerable to price spikes and transport disruptions, and quickly turns into a direct generator of corruption. Oil from southern Sudan or neighbouring countries often arrives through unofficial channels with heavy mark-ups. As a result, the price per kilowatt-hour in a generator economy is often as high or higher than in European countries — while incomes are only a fraction.
In rural areas, even this alternative disappears. Generators may be present, but without diesel they become rusting monuments. Electricity vanishes entirely from daily life. Water pumps stop, food can no longer be refrigerated, and mobile communication fails as towers lose power.
Somewhere between the first and second year after collapse, the point of no return is reached. National infrastructure becomes so neglected and stripped that restoration is astronomically expensive. The central grid is no longer seen as a realistic option. Everyone invests in their own supply, no matter how inefficient. This pattern has been visible in Iraq after 2003, in Libya after 2011, in South Sudan after 2013, and in the Central African Republic after repeated coups.
Sudan is now on this slope. With 37% of total capacity gone, massive copper cable theft, and the destruction of 15,000 transformers, the window for recovery is small — at most 18 to 24 months. After that, the diesel generator will no longer be a temporary stopgap, but the foundation of a new, permanent, and extremely fragile energy system.
Zip, thank you for another thought-provoking essay. Nations like Sudan are wounds that the ailing and bloated global superorganism’s immune system is no longer robust enough to heal. They are, to use Nate Hagens’ term, simplifying ahead of the curve.
Solar would make a lot of sense, given the issues you point out with diesel generators, but I imagine they would be hard to source/afford for a lot of Sudanese.
I always learn from you, Zip. Sobering.
No system devised by humans works.
Humans are just “bad”….managers and just about everything else too it seems
It’s hard to know what to make of us really. I think of us as emerging abruptly from the gentle flow of nature’s progress and taking a violent left-turn into a brick wall of our own making.
That’s not really accurate — plenty of human-devised systems have worked for centuries or millennia.
The problem is hierarchy. It formed because of agricultural surplus and complex state needs. Then it became entrenched because that’s how power works: institutions, ideology, and physical infrastructure gets built out around it. There are revolutions that may destabilize hierarchies locally but mostly the trend line has continued from ancient world to feudalism to modern late stage global capitalism and now fascism. Human nature is egalitarian but hierarchical systems (that we can’t overcome) are driving us and our planet off a cliff.
Every civilization has collapse…Henry Kissenger….and all those systems, even thousands of years collapsed….that’s not even a blink in geological time .
Perhaps we are too egocentric to feel otherwise.
This is the problem with civilization, summed up in one elegant sentence. Human-devised systems are patched together and limped along with more “progress,” “innovation,” and “advancement” into even more hopelessly fragile, complex, and failure prone systems that inevitably collapse.
It may be my expectation bias, or a change in the tone of reporting, or something else, but it seems that over the past six months the stories here on the economics days have changed from “at the limit” to “on the slide” for pretty well every country.
George, record global debt and the most state-based armed conflicts since WW2 certainly augur ill, but I’m not sure if there’s been a marked shift in tone these past six months. There may have been. I’d need to look back at some past threads and ponder.
Hurray…another untouched wildernesses to destroy to get rich….
High-grade gold deposit found in an unexplored region
ByAdrian Villellas Earth.com staff writer
https://www.earth.com/news/new-high-grade-gold-mine-found-in-an-unexplored-area-of-south-america/
Mining and oil together already account for about 60 percent of Suriname’s GDP and nearly 90 percent of export revenue.
Each fresh gold discovery therefore carries national weight, promising jobs, royalties, and, if managed well, infrastructure dollars for remote districts.
Yet Suriname’s rainforest terrain adds cost and regulatory scrutiny. Roads, power lines, and camps thread dense jungle where rainfall tops 160 inches (4,064 millimeters) a year.
The state continues to refine guidelines aimed at balancing growth with biodiversity and Indigenous land rights, lessons that have been hard won after decades of informal placer activity along the Marowijne Greenstone Belt.
Refine guidelines you say…translation we make them up as we go….
Vince, a similar story in China recently:
“China’s Gold megafind tests the future of environmentally responsible mining… provincial authorities in Hunan have pledged to adopt stringent regulatory frameworks. The aim is to strike a balance between industrial growth and ecological sustainability.”
https://africasustainabilitymatters.com/chinas-gold-megafind-tests-the-future-of-environmentally-responsible-mining/
Industrial growth and ecological sustainability; but the former precludes the latter, as far as I can see… Perhaps there is a spectrum but it’s still like smoking low-tar cigarettes and calling it healthy.
I’ve only recently begun to view these events as consequences for us to ignore and no longer warnings for us to ignore. We’re past being warned – now it’s living with the consequences of ignoring the warnings for decades, and devising new ways of applying the denial of warnings to the denial of consequences. We’ll really be perfecting our denial game in this civilization’s final trajectory.
Leaf, agreed. The denial and magical thinking will only ramp up. Ignorance is bliss until suddenly it isn’t.
https://youtu.be/FWeXU8hffm4?si=ulPc4FWr2dVhoXNa
Here is a lebanese women in her own words and history of resistance in Lebanon! Powerful! Also follow free Palestine tv with laif Maroff on the ground reporting and history of the area!
Thanks for that, Heather. I suspect Aoun has his work cut out banning armed militia in Lebanon.
Aoun was put in place as western puppet he has no ties to the area. The people support armed resistance after the last round of wars in the area and after the fall of Syria. Laif also talks about how the us puppet in Syria will also fail. It has also been revealed that both Russia and china support Israel in different ways. China has deals in west bank with workers and economic trades. Russia has ties with Russian jews in israel and laif has interviews from Syrian military that they were betrayed by Russia and bombed the resistance factions. Interviews are coming they have hide persons due to retribution from information coming out.
Ahmed al-Sharaa Is not a US puppet, he is a Turkish puppet. Big difference! That Trump met with Ahmed al-Sharaa indicates Turkey has the go ahead to be the regional hegemon, which it’s gonna be anyway, but the meeting means USA has acknowledged it. Turkey will use Syrian military as a constraint on Israel’s regional ambitions.
Either way he is a puppet!
“around 1 billion Indians have “absolutely zero purchasing power,” spending only on bare necessities and surviving largely through government support.”
I had no idea. Wow.
I have oft reported that New Zealand and UK are the canaries in the coalmine for collapse in the devolped world and India in the devolping world . India is a perfect example of ” Overshoot ” and LTG in combination .
Emigration from New Zealand is indeed experiencing a surge, with record numbers of citizens leaving the country. This outflow is happening at a time when the country is also seeing a slowdown in immigration, contributing to a net migration loss.
Here’s a more detailed look:
Record Numbers Leaving:
More than 52,500 New Zealand citizens left the country in the year ending March 2024, with 39% of them being between 18 and 30 years old.
Net Migration Loss:
This outflow is creating a significant net migration loss, with the annual net migration gain being the lowest in 10 months.
Slowing Immigration:
While emigration is rising, immigration is also slowing down, potentially due to factors like a weakening economy, tighter immigration rules, and a slowing labor market.
Factors Contributing to Emigration:
Several factors are contributing to the increased emigration, including a desire for better job opportunities, higher salaries, and a more affordable cost of living in other countries, particularly Australia.
Impact on New Zealand:
The emigration of young, skilled workers could potentially lead to labor shortages and slow economic growth.
Calls for Action:
There are calls for the government to address issues like housing affordability and economic support to encourage people to stay, according to some reports.
Proof that Americans are all stupid: $37,000,000,000,000 debt?
Greedy, “I want everything now & I shouldn’t have to do without anything, ever.”, egos can create problems for one’s budget.
My wife’s take on stupid: “I see it, I want it, I pitch a fit, I get it.”
What other countries’ citizens are stupid?
Are there any of species that can slap the crap out of their egos & say, enough?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5ENRDhEc60M
We all have our reasons that lead up to excuses, TR…
“Well, Excusssse meeeee”
Breaking Bad…we all be bad