A big thank you to October’s sponsor, Rusty Flanagan.
“Breaking News! Code Yikes!
“The global surface temperature anomaly is back over 1.8°C, sitting at 1.83°C as of October 28th. This smashes last year’s record for the same day of 1.61°C. Fortunately, the y-axis goes all the way up to 2.2°C.”
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1851595933911560282
“Will we get a two year average temperature of +1.6°C?!
“This 730-day-running-average-peak after the 2015-2016 El Nino occurred in September 2017. The past 17 months were already +1.6°C. We’re entering a >1.5°C climate!”
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1851714479484211206
“Melting Arctic sea-ice could have dramatic effect on ocean circulation.
“It has been a record warm summer here at 80 degrees North, off the coast of Svalbard in the Arctic Ocean. Enhanced melting of sea-ice can significantly change ocean circulation, causing lower temperatures across northern Europe, a new study warns.”
“NASA Helps Find Thawing Permafrost Adds to Near-Term Global Warming.
““We know that the permafrost region has captured and stored carbon for tens of thousands of years,” he said. “But what we are finding now is that climate-driven changes are tipping the balance toward permafrost being a net source of greenhouse gas emissions.””
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-helps-find-thawing-permafrost-adds-to-near-term-global-warming/
“Is climate change lighting a fuse under Iceland’s volcanoes?
“Scientists are racing to find out whether the rapid retreat of glaciers could drive a surge in eruptions as magma builds under the island nation — and if so, whether the same might occur at ice-covered volcanoes around the world, putting many lives at risk.”
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/climate-change-glacier-volcanoes/
“Red weather alert issued in western Norway for extreme weather event Jakob…
“A red warning has been issued in parts of Vestland County, with the extreme weather event Jakob expected to drench Norway’s west coast on Thursday. Up to 180 millimetres of rain is expected… The rainfall is expected to be even more intense than storm Gyda [pictured].”
“Irish children face shorter life expectancy and malnutrition caused by climate change…
““We are going to see malnutrition in Ireland, climate change is going to have a widespread impact on food security,” said Professor Karyn Morrissey, the only Irish researcher involved in the Lancet Countdown Report 2024 published today.”
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41506124.html
“Tiger mosquitoes continue to spread at abnormally high levels in France.
“Mild autumn temperatures have enabled the insects to proliferate, amid record dengue cases… Specialist website Vigilance-Moustiques has said that the majority of France is under red alert due to the presence of the insect, even now, in late October.”
“Drought, floods: French communes find insurance contracts cancelled…
“Increased numbers of authorities in France are finding their insurance contracts being cancelled, voided, or rising significantly in price due to the growing number of climate change-related claims. One example is the municipality of Vitry-en-Artois…”
“Poland’s recovery from Storm Boris: Is the EU prepared for more and more floods?
“…The residents of the Polish towns devastated by September’s floods don’t have a clear picture of how European institutions are acting in their support.”
“Spain’s ‘monster’ floods expose Europe’s unpreparedness for climate change…
“Valencia’s regional government, which is responsible for coordinating emergency services in the affected areas, admitted that it had only sent out a text message warning residents of the impending catastrophe at 8:12 PM, eight hours after the first floods were reported…”
https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-floods-valencia-europe-climate-change-preparation/
“Meteorologists said a year’s rain had fallen in eight hours in parts of Valencia on Tuesday… At least 95 people have been killed…
“Spain’s minister of regional affairs, Angel Victor Torres, told reporters the authorities were still unable to give a final number for all those still missing, suggesting the death toll was likely to rise further.”
“Strong, nearly stationary thunderstorm has developed just north of Valencia, Spain, with localized flash flooding being reported.
“Unfortunately, severe weather will remain a threat across the region for several more days until the cut-off low finally dissipates.”
https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1851907508555710954
“Water Scarcity Now Looms as Growing Problem for Greece…
“…every one of the greater Athens area’s fresh supplementary water sources, such as the Evinos reservoir and the small lakes of Yliki and Marathon, are also recording less water quantities.”
https://www.tovima.com/stories/water-scarcity-now-looms-as-growing-problem-for-greece/
“Vehicles marooned in mud of drying Gölbaşı Dam Lake [Turkey]…
“The temperature fluctuating above seasonal averages and the insufficient rainfall have recently caused the water level of Kırklareli Dam to significantly decline as well, according to the local authorities from the country’s water body.”
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/vehicles-marooned-in-mud-of-drying-golbasi-dam-lake-202099
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN MOZAMBIQUE – just like your author forecasted 2 weeks in advance, Tete surged to a sizzling 44.5C and it was followed by an extremely hot night with a MINIMUM OF 31.0C [87.8F].
“HOTTEST NIGHT EVER RECORDED ANYWHERE IN MOZAMBIQUE tied.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1851240065999257609
“For Tanzania’s Maasai, adapting to climate change may mean less livestock, more trees…
““We witnessed poor living conditions due to climate change, including drought, lack of rainfall, severe water shortages, and scarcity of food and pasture for both people and livestock,” Medukenya said in a phone interview.”
“Record heat is all over the world including the Indian Ocean:
“Today hottest October night in history in Juan de Nova Island, part of the French Southern Territories in Africa with a minimum temperature of 27.2C [81F].”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1851649763877478785
“Record after record also in the MALDIVES: hottest October day in history also for the Southern atoll of Kadhodhoo with 33.1C [91.6F] today.
“Maldives, like most tropical countries, in this 2024 have broken all the records which were set in 2023.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1851625107648815557
“Delayed rainfall raises concerns among farmers in Homs [Syria]…
“The delay in rain has generated concerns among farmers as they anticipate a decline in the winter agricultural season, depriving them of compensating for losses from last year.”
“The dust storms of Tajikistan… The number of such episodes in the country has increased by more than 10 times in the last 30 years…
“Health costs in Tajikistan exceed 4% of GDP, and many negative effects are also felt in the loss of agricultural crops and the increasingly rapid thawing of mountain glaciers… Particularly urgent in Tajikistan is the need for reforestation…”
https://www.asianews.it/news-en/The-dust-storms-of-Tajikistan-61799.html
“Typhoon Kong-rey: Taiwan shuts down ahead of biggest storm in decades.
“Kong-rey was also expected to make landfall at the latest point in the typhoon season, which typically stretches from May to October, of any typhoon since 1967.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/31/typhoon-kong-rey-taiwan-storm-tracker-weather
“INSANE ETERNAL RECORD HEAT IN SE ASIA… BOTH THAILAND AND INDONESIA HAD THEIR OCTOBER HOTTEST NIGHT IN HISTORY (again and again and again).
“TMINS 29.1 Sangkapura (Indonesia) and 29.2 Laem Chabang (Thailand). 600+ days breaking records every single day…”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1851504309407793385
“Extremely warm nights in AUSTRALIA with some records of October highest minimums: 29.1 [84.4F] Troughton Island; 28.0 Melingimbi.
“More records tomorrow…”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1851602456943202554
“BOM and CSIRO State of the Climate report 2024 predicts more extreme weather as warming increases [Australia]…
“The 2024 report has found Australia has already warmed by 1.51 degrees, with more extreme heat events over land and oceans, longer fire seasons, more intense heavy rainfall and sea level rise.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-31/bom-csiro-state-of-the-climate-2024-report/104525682
“Exceptional heat in OCEANIA – records falling all over. Monthly records: MICRONESIA 35.0 [95F] Pohnpei, 33.3 Chuuk.
“WALLIS AND FUTUNA: min. 27.2 Wallis HOTTEST OCTOBER NIGHT IN TERRITORY HISTORY.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1851866699479310570
“In pictures: Historic drought marks Amazon’s parched landscape.
“According to the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, the current drought is the most intense and widespread Brazil has experienced since at least the 1950s.“
“HISTORIC HEAT IN CHILE. Insane temperatures up to 39.9C [104F] yesterday at Huechun, north of Santiago – HOTTEST OCTOBER DAY IN CHILEAN HISTORY.
“37.0C at >1300m in Atacama province. The capital Santiago pulverized its monthly records in all its stations: 34.3C Observatory, 35.7C Airport etc.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1851321592766480514
“MEXICO again! 40.4C [104.7F] yesterday in the Airport of the city of La Paz, Baja California Sur State, is a new October record of highest temperature.
“That’s remarkable since it’s recorded at the end of the month and in a long period of records station.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1851425643616944387
“Baton Rouge hits latest 90 degree temperature on record…
“An all-time record fell on Wednesday as Metro Airport registered the latest 90 degree temperature in history. Previously, the latest date into the calendar year to hit 90 degrees was October 27—set earlier this year and in 1907.”
https://www.wbrz.com/news/baton-rouge-hits-latest-90-degree-temperature-on-record/
“HISTORIC HEAT IN CENTRAL USA:
“Yesterday unbelievable 97F in Kansas (at Medicine Lodge) and in Oklahoma (at Freedom 3SSW) yesterday: For Kansas it’s a whopping 5F hotter than any temperature ever recorded so late in the season! for Oklahoma 2F more.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1851269760501367287
“Wildfires rage in Oklahoma, severe weather expected in central U.S.
“Wildfires are blazing in Oklahoma as warnings of severe weather spread in Kansas and other parts of the central U.S. CBS News’ Rob Marciano has the latest on strong winds that could create severe conditions.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/wildfires-rage-in-oklahoma-severe-weather-expected-in-central-us/
“Helene damage in western North Carolina leading to increased wildfire risk…
“North Carolina State University Professor of Forest Ecology Robert Scheller said this tree mortality resulted in tree debris, such as leaves and branches, that can dry up and become fuel for a wildfire.”
https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/helene-damage-western-north-carolina-wildfire-risk
“D.C. to see warmest Halloween in 50 years, with possible Election Day record highs…
“Highs are forecast to reach near 80 degrees four different times over the next eight days: on Wednesday and Thursday (Halloween) this week, and again on Tuesday (Election Day) and Nov. 6 next week.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/10/30/dc-warm-weather-halloween-election/
“Philly broke a 150-year-old record with 30 straight days without measurable rain…
“The record for longest streak of dry days in Philadelphia was broken Tuesday — as the city hit 30 consecutive days without rain — and the lack of water could have dire consequences for the fall foliage.”
https://www.phillyvoice.com/philadelphia-dry-weather-fall-foliage-pennsylvania/
“Multiple brush fires burn across Massachusetts, bans put in place…
“Over 120 brush fires have burned around 450 acres in the state in the last seven days, Jake Wark, the Public Information Officer for the Massachusetts Department of Fire Services, told USA TODAY.”
“Some wildfire suppressants contain heavy metals and could contaminate the environment…
“”Wildfires are associated with the release of toxic heavy metals to the environment, but until now, it was assumed that these metals came from natural sources like soil,” says Daniel McCurry, principal investigator of the study. “We now know that fire retardants may contribute to these metal releases.””
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-wildfire-suppressants-heavy-metals-contaminate.html
“Climate change made the 10 deadliest extreme weather events over the past two decades worse, contributing to the deaths of more than 570,000 people, scientists have said.
“Climate scientists said the finding “underscores how dangerous extreme weather events have already become” with just 1.3C of global warming above pre-industrial levels…”
“Earth is becoming “increasingly uninhabitable” as the planet continues to warm due to climate change…
“This could be Earth’s hottest year and increasingly warm and humid weather is making more of the planet unlivable, with 600 million people living outside habitable climatic conditions.”
“Bird flu detected in a US pig for the first time, raising concern about threat to humans… [It seems like this virus potentially sets up an interesting clash between big ag, who would benefit from playing the virus down, and big pharma, who would benefit from playing it up…]
“So far this year, nearly 40 human cases have been reported in the US with mostly mild symptoms, including eye redness, reported. All but one of the people had been in contact with infected animals.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
2023-24 US flu season:
So far this flu season, the CDC estimates that there have been at least:
34 million illnesses
380,000 hospitalizations
24,000 deaths (including 148 children)
If I’m doing my math right then If I’m doing my math right then that is a 0.0007 infection fatality rate. And obviously the vast majority of those 24,000 were elderly or in another way vulnerable people.
Personally, I am not worried about 40 cases of bird flu.
Now, the story right above that one DOES concern me:
“This could be Earth’s hottest year and increasingly warm and humid weather is making more of the planet unlivable, with 600 million people living outside habitable climatic conditions.”
I think im more worried about another future pandemic.
“Spain’s ‘monster’ floods expose Europe’s unpreparedness for climate change…”
What kind of “preparedness” is possible for floods of this magnitude? Government are not going to solve anything. What is the last example of a pro-active plan by the government that worked? The time to be pro-active concerning climate change has long past; from this point on we will only be applying reactive solutions.
Edward, it did sound like they dropped the ball a bit with the late text alerts but I agree – we are having these huge, infrastructure-battering floods now like Valencia, or storm Boris, Helene in NC, Rio Grande do Sul etc. and there’s really only so much governments can do.
There will be even less they can do as our energy/debt problems worsen in step with climate change.
Hello Pan
Yes you live in Valencia and stand on your balcony and then you see all those cars piled up in your street. Maybe your own car is among them too. But yes Spaniards complain that they should have been warned in advance. That’s how we do it! Lots of damage.
Talk about damage!
Yesterday in your review you had the shutdown of the LNG 2 plant in the Kara Sea…. ah?
1. The Arctic LNG 2 project was set up by Russian energy company Novatek, which is in charge of operations and production. The project also has investors and partners from other countries, including China, Japan and France. Major international companies and banks originally contributed funding, partly through loans and capital investments. French energy giant TotalEnergies holds a minority stake of about 10%, while Chinese state-owned companies, such as China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), have also invested 10% each. In addition, the Japanese consortium Japan Arctic LNG, comprising Mitsui & Co. and JOGMEC (Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation), has a 10% stake.
Funding came from various sources, including Chinese state-owned banks, which provided substantial loans, and Russian state-owned banks, which increased their support to Novatek. Russian financial institutions played a bigger role as sanctions against Russia tightened, further limiting Western funding. The project is estimated to be worth about $21 billion, and Novatek has tried to use as much Russian technology and suppliers as possible to limit the impact of Western sanctions.
2. The Arctic LNG 2 project, led by Russian energy company Novatek, thus has a total estimated value of about $21.3 billion. The funding comes from both equity and external loans. A €9.5 billion financing package was announced in November 2021, split between various sources:
Russian banks: €4.5 billion, including Sberbank.
Chinese banks: €2.5 billion, including China Development Bank and Export-Import Bank of China.
Financial institutions from OECD countries: €2.5 billion, with participation from Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC).
In addition, shareholders including Novatek (60%), TotalEnergies (10%), CNPC (10%), CNOOC (10%) and the Japanese consortium Japan Arctic LNG (10%) contributed to the financing.
These are huge sums and this kind of ‘capital destruction’ in gas and oil projects are not exceptional and limited to Russia but go much further Africa Asia, Latin America.
I am currently doing research on the sum total of this fossil capital destruction which is no lie…
Because these kinds of projects once shut down are never restarted. This is about hundreds of billions in areas that can be considered ‘fossil’ lost.
You can rebuild the whole of Valencia from that…. in short, we are really approaching the limits of the fossil era. We just don’t see the big picture.
Zip, thank you for your research on this. Europe is still importing a lot of Russian LNG, events in Ukraine notwithstanding, and is pretty exposed to price volatility in gas markets.
From an economic standpoint, having gas continue to transit through Ukraine, having an intact Nord Stream 2 and having Arctic LNG 2 come on line would have been in our best interests… but these are not straightforward times.
”Wildfires are associated with the release of toxic heavy metals to the environment, but until now, it was assumed that these metals came from natural sources like soil,” says Daniel McCurry, principal investigator of the study. “We now know that fire retardants may contribute to these metal releases.””
What surprising is this was ever in question. Fire retardants not affecting the environment negatively would be more shocking. ALL of our man made creations cause problems to the environment. That should be a given at this point.
Nat, I agree. My jaw was not exactly on the floor.
Why, when we consider the breakdown of the Global Meridional Overturning Circulation, do people whine about Europe getting colder.
Even though people have died in thousands from heat domes and tropical dengue fever is ravaging France. Too much heat makes people stupider and angrier.
Let me tell you from Canada, cold is beautiful . It is clean and healthy. Europe needs more cold.
What is really troubling about the MOC globally is that it’s function is to share out the excess warmth of the hot places around the tropics.
When it breaks down there is a surge toward unlivable wet bulb temperatures in the tropics and a truly massive pole ward migration. Better learn to love diversity, because if your plan is to fight it out, you will lose.
One good thing, the fighters will have to hunker down for one unprecedented hurricane after another. The Earth’s backup system for spreading some warmth northward.
The Climate Election: How climate change will impact your food and electric bills, the economy and more
By Li Cohen, Tracy J. Wholf, Marina Jurica
Updated on: October 31, 2024 / 9:52 AM EDT / CBS News
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-election-impact-food-electric-bills-economy/
Mainstream CBS News featured activist Bill McKibben of 350.org in a video interview.
Admitted the issue is a back burner thought of the campaign.
Constant TV commercials for weeks on two Amendments in my state of Florida regarding legalizing Pot and the other Woman’s right to an Abortion.
If the same feverish passion was displayed regarding Global Warming…
I have never understood either why so many Germans think that the weather in Spain and Italy and Yugoslavia is better than Germany. Sure if you want to just sit around outside a temperature of 25 is a good temperature. But if you want to run with your dog or ride a bike or do some gardening or play some football or basketball or hike to a waterfall or through a really old town. Then 10 to 20 degrees is much better than 25°.
Stephen, you can count me among the whiners. 😂
Our infrastructure, grid and food production just aren’t set up to cope with the sort of drop in temps an AMOC could potentially bring. Even as it is, significant snow-storms paralyse the country and people on the margins are struggling to heat their homes through the winter.
I thought of that after I wrote it. Easy to say where we are already prepared for a long winter. Not so good when you are not ready. Still gathering a heap of firewood or peat, putting on your long underwear and stacking strawbales around your foundations, it beats heat stroke and tropical diseases.
Of course with climate chaos one could have severe winters and scalding summers.
I can see that there is a certain romantic appeal to the idea of pristine, snowy winters settling on the UK but it’s not my cup of tea. I like to think I would make a dignified exit like Captain Oates under those circumstances, although I’m sure some panicky/messy/idiotic end is much more probable. 😂
Addendum: I did a quick Google search on Captain Oates and uncovered a murky legacy. According to a recent biography, “as a young army officer, he fathered a daughter in a brief liaison with a girl who was less than 12 years old.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/oct/14/books.artsandhumanities
Each day of the Climate report is more exciting than the last.
Looks like Special members of the Special Species are watching the ordeal resulting from their poor choices. Wonder how the rich & entitled in the First World will handle devastation at their front door?
As you pointed out many times here, TR, no need to wonder…the rich and entitled, which admittedly I am certain a part, will largely disregard any responsibility for the cause and be dismayed of our privileged god-like lifestyle, which has made us a little crazy per Randy Udall, no longer exists.
My apologies for the radio silence in the comments section yesterday, all. I got caught up in the Halloween shenanigans. 🎃