A big thank you to October’s sponsor, Rusty Flanagan.
“Japan’s Mount Fuji remained snow-less as of Monday—the latest date that its majestic slopes have been bare since records began 130 years ago, the weather agency said…
“Japan’s summer this year was the joint hottest on record—equalling the level seen in 2023—as extreme heatwaves fuelled by climate change engulfed many parts of the globe.”
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-japan-mount-fuji.html
“The Philippines is prone to extreme weather. But few expected Tropical Storm Trami to be this devastating…
“The Philippines is struck by multiple typhoons a year and Trami was not an especially strong storm when it made landfall, at least in terms of windspeed. But it was the intense downpours that brought destruction.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/28/climate/philippines-storm-trami-kristine-intl-hnk/index.html
“China’s ‘Hawaii’ under water as tropical storm dumps record rainfall.
“Cities in Hainan including Sanya, famed for its palm trees, seafront hotels and sandy beaches, remained waterlogged on Tuesday due to Tropical Storm Trami to the south. On Monday, Sanya logged 294.9mm (11.6 inches) of rainfall over a 24-hour window…”
“Torrential rain in Quang Binh, flood rising quickly, more than 15.000 houses submerged in water [Vietnam]…
“Recorded by Dan Viet newspaper reporter, morning of October 28, in the province Quang Binh There is still heavy rain, accompanied by strong winds. The rain and floods cause the river water to rise rapidly, causing thousands of houses to be submerged in water and many trees to fall.”
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT WAVE IN THAILAND: records smashed all over the country from North to South.
“38.2 [100.8F] Tak, 37.3 Hua Hin and Phrae, 37.2 Bang Na, 37 Petchaburi, 36.2 Samutsonkram, 36 Sawi, 35.7 Chumpon. Thousands of records have fallen in Thailand every single day for 600+ consecutive days.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1850527994151907479
“HISTORIC HEAT IN INDONESIA:
“38.4C [101.1F] at Larantuka is HOTTEST DAY EVER RECORDED IN FLORES ISLAND. Monthly record tied in the mega city of Surabaya AP with 37.8C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1850557614565859702
“RECORD HEAT IN OCEANIA – NEW CALEDONIA: 35.2 [95.4F] Surprise Island October record.
“INDONESIA: Records of hottest nights TMINS: 27.2 Kaimana, 26.7 Sabang, 26.2 Tanjung Selor; AUSTRALIA Tmin 27.4 Newman; Tmax 38.2 Maningrida.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1850111962551566488
“Six months after its worst floods, Rio Grande do Sul works to bounce back [Brazil]…
“Six months after the disaster, residents statewide are still grappling with the consequences. New research, including Minella’s, is slowly making sense of the floods’ devastating impact and how to move forward, while other scientists are working to recover ecosystems.”
“More record heat in BRAZIL:
“Record of hottest nights in the Amazon: Manaus Aero min 29.1 [84.4F], Parintins min 28.5, Salinas min 27.8… Record heat persists all over the tropics and will further increase in November.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1850628215804403880
“UNBELIEVABLE HISTORIC EVENT IN MEXICO – Brutal 46.2C/115.2F at Plutarco [again] yesterday.
“Nothing even remotely close like this has ever happened anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere this time of the year and undoubtedly one of the most extreme events in world climatic history.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1851011417413206444
“On top of this, record heat is sweeping the whole of Central America. Unprecedented hot nights in October with Tmins:
“29C San Andres, COLOMBIA; 28.0C Choluteca, HONDURAS; 26.0C Rivas, NICARAGUA… Record heat is sweeping all tropics in all continents; there has never been a month like this.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1851028671777099834
“Houston has recorded the most 90-degree days ever in October…
“Houston has officially recorded the most 90-degree days in October since records began in the 1880s. Up until this year, Houston had recorded as many as ten October days with high temperatures at or above 90 degrees.”
“This month is on track to be the hottest October in Phoenix history…
“After the hottest summer on record in Phoenix, October has brought little relief. The month started with a few days climbing past 110 degrees. Before this year, temperatures above 110 had never been recorded in October before.”
“Mudslide Shuts Down Interstate North Of Seattle.
“Record-breaking rain in Bellingham, Washington, caused a huge mudslide early Sunday. Watch this video to see the massive clean-up that crews faced as the slide shut down part of an interstate.”
https://weather.com/news/weather/video/mudslide-washington-bellingham-interstate-shut-down
“Why Halloween week in the eastern U.S. will be scarily warm…
“With Halloween days away, a spooky-warm air mass is wafting east, delivering record high temperatures daily through at least the end of the month… Hundreds of records for warm mornings are also poised to be set.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/10/28/halloween-week-record-warmth-us-forecat/
“Central Park’s dry spell nears century-old record as October remains rain-free…
“Central Park is experiencing one of its longest dry spells in history, reaching 29 consecutive days without measurable rainfall on Monday — the second-longest streak since records began in 1869, according to local meteorologists and officials.”
“Major wildfire burns as NJ on track to have its driest month ever…
“A major wildfire in Essex County has consumed 140 acres of land amid one of the driest months in New Jersey’s history. Dubbed the Industrial Wildfire, it broke out Saturday afternoon in Livingston near Route 10 and Eisenhower Parkway.”
https://nj1015.com/major-wildfire-burns-as-nj-on-track-to-have-its-driest-month-ever/
“Rare fungi flourish after wettest 18 months on record [UK]…
“The persistent downpours of rain have been bad news for farmers, as well as birds, insects and much else in the natural world, but one group of organisms has flourished in these thoroughly damp conditions. Great numbers of mushrooms have been sprouting…”
“‘Everyone’s trying to tread water’: The battle of a small business hit by flooding [England]…
“Last month, the English county of Buckinghamshire limped through its wettest September in records dating back 188 years. Weeks of downpours led to severe flooding on 22 September as rivers burst their banks, inundating more than 500 properties with water.”
“Flooding in France: 350 to 420 million EUR in insured losses.
“Initial estimates by Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR) indicate that insured losses caused by the floods in France on 17 and 18 October could range between 350 and 420 million EUR (378 and 453 million USD). At least 50% of this amount will be borne by the reinsurer.”
“A violent hailstorm causes damage in El Ejido [SE Spain]…
“In areas such as Aguadulce, El Ejido and Vícar, the water fell in the form of hail, causing considerable damage. In just a few minutes, social networks have been filled with videos of the hail falling with hailstones measuring about five centimetres in diameter.”
“Dramatic flooding in Mallorca as cars are submerged in water and town is ‘cut in half…
“Residents in Mallorca’s Porto Cristo woke up to dramatic scenes on Monday following a night of deluge. Severe flooding in the port saw cars submerged in water while restaurants had their tables, chairs and parasols washed away.”
“One missing after flash flood and severe weather hit Italy…
“Over the past three years, Italy has been repeatedly struck by extreme weather events, from record heatwaves and drought in summer to hailstorms and flooding in other seasons.”
https://en.apa.az/europe/1-missing-after-flash-flood-and-severe-weather-hit-italy-452013
“Forest fire continues for fifth day in western Turkey.
“The forest fire in western Turkey’s Denizlli province continues on its fifth day despite extinguishing efforts. Deputy Gülizar Biçer Karaca of the main opposition CHP criticized the late intervention, stating that authorities did not utilize critical firefighting equipment.”
https://www.duvarenglish.com/forest-fire-continues-for-fifth-day-in-western-turkey-news-65168
“Namibia Central Bank Mandates Lenders to Offer Drought Relief…
“The plan, which took effect Oct. 23, mandates lenders to offer loan restructuring, debt moratoriums, and emergency funding with preferential terms, the Bank of Namibia said in a emailed statement on Monday.”
“HISTORIC HEAT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA – insane MINIMUM 29.8C [85.6F] at Tete MOZAMBIQUE HOTTEST OCTOBER NIGHT IN HISTORY.
“Record heat everywhere from Tanzania (min 22.4 Kilimanjaro AP) to Kenya, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi and Botswana. And it will get worse. Historic.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1850507307802652957
“Today in Mecca, Saudi Arabia! [Further] unstoppable storms and floods turned streets into rivers.
“Saudi Arabia has been experiencing unpredictable weather conditions since yesterday, and throughout the day, due to heavy rain and storms that hit the country with strong winds, heavy rain, hail and floods.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6_u3BRcius
“MIDDLE EAST HEAT WAVE – another record hot night with minimum temperatures locally >30C in UAE and Iran, including in Dubai.
“The minimum of 30.8 [87.4F] at Khor Fakkan, EMIRATES is at record level for this time of the year for the whole Northern Hemisphere.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1850870136305033466
“Kabul residents endure long waits, rising costs as water shortage worsens [Afghanistan]…
“The shortage extends beyond Kabul, affecting other provinces grappling with severe drought. In Kunduz, one resident described the daily struggle: “When there’s no water, we have to fetch it from the river. Where is the government to address these issues?””
“Exceptional heat also in PAKISTAN. Up to 42.4C [108.3F] at Nawabshah, it has never been that hot so late in the year in India, Pakistan and the Arabian Peninsula.
“Record heat from southern Middle East to Japan will continue into November…”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1850583450039824433
“Kashmir’s prized saffron crop hit by dry spells…
“The climate change over the last several years has taken a toll on the Kashmiri saffron fields, sprawling over thousands of hectares across Pulwama and Budgam districts.”
“Water Conflicts in India: A Rising Tide of Violence and Dispute…
“In 2023 alone, India accounted for nearly 11% of Asia’s reported water-related conflicts… That year was particularly challenging, as severe drought conditions affected over 40% of the country, with approximately 500 million people experiencing significant water shortages.”
https://goachronicle.com/water-conflicts-in-india-a-rising-tide-of-violence-and-dispute/
“Record-breaking rain devastates Chitradurga, Davanagere and Haveri distsricts [India].
“Record rainfall inundates southern Karnataka, causing significant damage in Davanagere and Haveri with hundreds of houses flooded… the unrelenting rains caused extensive damage…”
“Dhilkhel municipality has demanded the government declare it as a ‘crisis-hit zone’ following a huge loss amounting to Rs 1 billion due to recent floods and landslides [Nepal]…
“It is estimated that Rs 35.1 million will be spent to rebuild the drinking water project, which has been in operation for nearly three decades.”
https://risingnepaldaily.com/news/51079
“Deepening Climate Crisis Fuels Child Marriage in Bangladesh…
“As the climate crisis deepens, impoverished and desperate families have felt the pinch. Facing dire financial straits, more and more have turned to marrying off the young girls in their families in order to cut down on living expenses…”
https://inkstickmedia.com/deepening-climate-crisis-fuels-child-marriage-in-bangladesh/
“Miscarriages due to climate crisis a ‘blind spot’ in action plans…
“Miscarriages, premature babies and harm to mothers caused by the climate crisis are a “blind spot” in action plans, according to a report aimed at the decision-makers who will attend the Cop29 summit in November.”
“There we are! [Today we have…]
“Record high Sea Surface Temperatures
Record high global air temperatures
Record low global sea-ice extent… While El Niño is long gone!”
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1850968871290732802
“Planet-warming pollution is growing at the fastest rate in history, scientists say…
“Concentrations of carbon dioxide — the most important driver of global warming — are now growing faster than at any time since our species evolved, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/10/28/wmo-report-record-greenhouse-gases/
“Corporations using ‘ineffectual’ carbon offsets are slowing path to ‘real zero’, more than 60 climate scientists say…
“Carbon offsets used by corporations around the world to lower their reportable greenhouse gas emissions are “ineffectual” and “hindering the energy transition”, according to more than 60 leading climate change scientists.”
“Global climate action plans ‘falling miles short’, warns UN…
“It follows another stark warning last week from the UN Environment Programme, which found the chances of limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – a key target in the landmark Paris Agreement – were “virtually zero”.”
https://news.sky.com/story/global-climate-action-plans-falling-miles-short-warns-un-13243308
“Alarm call as world’s trees slide towards extinction…
“The number of threatened trees now outweighs all threatened birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians put together, according to the latest update to the official extinction red list, external.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24558g69mgo
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
I’ve seen nothing to show that scientists have any more ideas about what caused the accelerated warming over the last two years than they had this time last year, and it seems to be getting worse given that a La Nina led cool down doesn’t seem to be likely now. There was one group looking at the effects of the loss of Antarctic sea ice and consequential slowing of the southern overturning currents that looked most promising to me (lower albedo and less heat being taken to deeper waters). I’ve forgotten the names of the scientists and institution and haven’t seen any update.
AGU24 in early December is likely to have the most up to date research, but I’d have thought if there was anything particularly revelatory it would have already leaked out.
It seems to my non scientist mind that the accelerated warming is the sum of all the various accelerating factors. Personally it doesn’t matter to me the breakdown of the factors. Where we are going is crystal clear.
Agreed with Kali.
We’ll be able to examine how the Jenga pieces fell at the end of the decade in true clarity if we’re still here.
George, James Hansen et al make the case that it is partly driven by loss of dimming aerosols due to recent clean air regs, especially for shipping, and also that IPCC has underestimated climate sensitivity.