A big thank you to October’s sponsor, Rusty Flanagan.
“Earth is likely to have its hottest year on record – again…
“…this year, we started off with an El Niño and so we predicted at the end of last year that 2024 would [have a] 50 percent chance that it would be the warmest year. Now, it’s actually been warmer than we predicted,” he said. “So, there may well be something else going on.”” [Gavin Schmidt, NASA]
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/earth-hottest-year-temps-2024-b2633718.html
“The last time when monthly temperatures were below pre-industrial levels was October 1976, 48 years ago!
“October 2024 will be the 17th month above pre-2023 records. Averaging at +1.6°C. Don’t go back to sleep when the fire alarm goes off!”
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1849099465157738758
“2024 is tracking to reach a record high Yearly Atmospheric CO₂ Increase of about 3.2 ppm!”
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1849155869960794594
“The Global Methane Bomb Is Starting to Detonate. A hotter planet could be losing its ability to absorb our pollution.
“Atmospheric methane concentrations have grown at a record rate since 2020, and they found that processes in nature are to blame: “The post-2020 CH4 growth is almost entirely driven by increased microbial emissions.””
“Mystery of Siberian explosive craters solved.
“Study finds craters come from forceful releases of methane gas from underground ponds as temperatures warm… Although infrequent, the explosions release large amounts of methane and could have a significant warming impact.”
“Polar bears face higher risk of disease in a warming Arctic.
“As the Arctic warms, polar bears face a growing risk of contracting viruses, bacteria and parasites that they were less likely to encounter just 30 years ago, research has revealed.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1e7pl3evd0o
“Arctic heat: Bjørnøya (Bear Island) at 74,26 N , with observations in 100 years, set a double heat record Sunday with both highest maximum and medium temperature so late in the year with maximum 9.3C [48.7F] and medium temperature 7.4C.
“Old records 8.4C and 7.1C, both from 1953!”
https://x.com/VaerTorsten/status/1849103806522409126
“Arctic Seed Vault Receives Largest Seeds Deposit Amid Conflicts And Climate Crisis.
“The Svalbard Global Seed Vault – the biggest backup seed storage facility in the world – received this week over 31,000 new seed samples from 23 countries, including Palestine and Sudan marking it the largest contributions since the vault’s establishment in 2008.”
“New [Greenland] ice core data provide insight into climate ‘tipping points’ during the last Ice Age…
“The AMOC has been well-behaved over the last 11,700 years, but …he said. “The climate does not behave in linear patterns; it can change quickly and irreversibly.””
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-ice-core-insight-climate-age.html
“‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation [Stefan Rahmstorf]…
“Is there any possibility it has already happened? I wouldn’t rule it out completely, because it would be very hard to tell from observations. Nothing dramatic happens at the tipping point.”
“‘On a knife edge’: How climate change is pushing farmers to the brink [UK]…
“”We are now on a knife edge… Some farms in southern England have lost their crops for the second year in a row… We’re getting into a situation where autumn planting is becoming unviable due to flooding and spring planting is risky because of drought.”
“A floating [cattle] farm in Rotterdam rises to meet the challenge of climate change…
“Solar panels wave around the farm to reduce energy dependency, and there’s a small wind turbine on the water — though the farm still relies partially on external resources. On the cowshed’s upper floor, meanwhile, an automated robot passes between the aisles to collect the manure.”
“The front of Morteratsch Glacier [Switzerland] has undergone profound changes this year! 😱
“Huge retreat led to the formation of an ice cliff and an ice cave in place of the gently sloping front that existed before…”
https://x.com/subfossilguy/status/1849126511745393004
“This is how Guissona and Tàrrega [Catalonia] looked after the heavy rains: streets turned into streams…
“With rainfall that accumulated 50 liters per square meter in a matter of just over 30 minutes, several municipalities and towns, especially in the Poniente regions, have seen how their sewage system and street drains were overwhelmed.”
“Heavy rain on Ischia: fear and flooding [Bay of Naples]…
“Forty liters of rain per square meter in an hour. A violent downpour… Cars broke down in via delle Ginestre, near the “Buchner” high school, where a real lake has formed. Problems also in Ischia Ponte, where the water has dangerously gained speed…”
https://napoli.repubblica.it/cronaca/2024/10/23/news/nubifragio_ischia_paura_allagamenti-423572142/
“Climate change a worry for Greece’s hungry butterflies…
“Warmer temperatures are making life harder for butterflies in Greece, home to some 237 species. Food is scarcer, flowering periods are shorter, and experts now suspect the butterflies may be getting smaller.”
“Chad herders face drought, flood devastation…
“”Just this year, the drought caused me to lose 70 head of cattle,” he said, sitting in the shade of a bush on the outskirts of the country’s capital, N’Djamena, his face is marked by exhaustion. The first rains of the season — which should have brought some hope and relief to the herders — turned into a nightmare.”
https://www.dw.com/en/chad-herders-face-drought-flood-devastation/a-70580321
“Flooding in Cameroon, the Far North is drowning…
“Since July 2024, excessive rainfall and rising water levels in major rivers such as the Logone et Chari have worsened an already fragile situation, exacerbated by ongoing security crises, including attacks by non-state armed groups and intercommunal conflicts.”
https://www.actioncontrelafaim.org/en/headline/flooding-in-cameroon-the-far-north-is-drowning/
“Cholera cases explode after extreme rains fuelled by climate change in west and central Africa…
“”The majority of the climate models that we looked at indicate a trend towards more extreme rainfall events in this region,” explained Clair Barnes, a statistician with WWA and a research associate at Imperial College London.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/cholera-wwa-africa-1.7360685
“SOUTHERN AFRICA HEAT WAVE – fierce heat all over from Namibia to MADAGASCAR where more records heat for October fell:
“38.0 [100.4F] Mahajanga; 38.4 also on the eastern coast at Tamatave. In Mozambique up to 42C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1849131282447360186
“Climate change-induced livestock diseases fuel tension along Kenya-Uganda border…
“The scarcity of pasture and water as a result of prolonged drought, especially in Turkana, has been forcing pastoralists from Loima, Lokiriama and Turkana West sub-counties to cross over to the Karamoja region of Uganda for relief.”
“‘Dust tornado’ spotted [UAE]…
“On Wednesday afternoon, meteorologists observed a rare meteorological phenomenon in some parts of the UAE. A funnel cyclone formed in the Khudaira area of Sharjah and Keda in Ras Al Khaimah, coinciding with a period of fluctuating weather conditions across the UAE.”
“Water crisis deepens in Anbar [Kurdistan] as half a million residents face severe shortage, poor water quality…
“For three years, Anbar, like other Iraqi provinces, has faced a humanitarian crisis due to water scarcity, primarily caused by the drying up of Lake Habbaniyah. In Fallujah, Anbar’s largest district, residents go without water for consecutive days.”
https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/807403
“IT capital’s Venice moment: What went wrong when Bengaluru recorded 180 mm of overnight rain.
“The Monday evening downpour, which continued till Tuesday, set a new record for the highest daily rainfall at a weather station in Bengaluru, with 186.2 mm recorded at the IMD’s GKVK station in the northern part of the city.”
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN THAILAND. Both the tourist resorts of Koh Samui and Phuket destroyed their records of October hottest night: Tmin 28.4 [83.1F] Phuket AP, 27.4 Koh Samui
“Thousands of records have been falling in Thailand every single day, without exception for nearly 600 days.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1848998438165233964
“Chukai hailstorm damaged 244 houses, seven schools, says exco rep [Malaysia]…
“A severe thunderstorm with hailstones damaged 244 houses in within a 3km radius of Bandar Chukai, Kemaman on Wednesday (Oct 24). State infrastructure, utilities and rural development committee chairman Hanafiah Mat said the affected homes were located in nine villages…”
“HISTORIC HEAT IN INDONESIA. Incredible MINIMUM 28.8C [83.8F] Tahuna is HOTTEST OCTOBER NIGHT IN INDONESIA HISTORY AND HOTTEST NIGHT EVER IN SULAWESI.
“More High Min Records: 28.0 Ternate, 27.6 Bitung, 26.2 Palembang.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1848886320393032075
“Tropical Storm Trami wreaks havoc in the Philippines, at least 26 dead…
“Over 163,000 people were sheltering in evacuation centres, the civil defence office said, most of whom were in Bicol as residents fled their homes after floodwaters reached as high as the roofs of bungalow houses.”
“Although a La Niña event has yet to be officially classified, there is a respectable cold tongue in the equatorial Pacific!
“The 30-day relative Niño 3.4 Index (-1.02˚C) is now in moderate La Niña territory… I think a moderate (relative) La Niña will still be in place come December, being an important global climate driver into early 2025.”
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1848668547561693419
“Flooded streets and houses in Paysandú [Uruguay]: images of the strong storm that hit the city on Wednesday…
“The Uruguayan Institute of Meteorology ( Inumet ) issued a new special warning to the population for the storms and rains expected from Wednesday afternoon and during Thursday, and added that there will be strong winds on Friday.”
“Giant mural in Sao Paulo uses ash from wildfires to highlight deforestation.
“Brazilian artist Mundano on Wednesday is presenting a massive street mural in Sao Paulo that uses ash from wildfires and mud from floods to highlight extreme weather events wreaking devastation across the country — as well as their causes.”
“More record heat in South America.
“Yesterday the BOLIVIAN town of Camiri (800m asl) had a minimum temperature of 25.6C [78.1F] , its hottest October night in history.. SURINAME: 36.0C at Nickerie it’s its highest October temperature on records, after beating that of September. Record heat has been going on since June 2023.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1849030302309523483
“A torrential rain caused chaos in the city of Huancayo [Peru], as several transporters, pedestrians and passengers were affected.
“The water reached a meter high inside a minivan, forcing its passengers to quickly evacuate and take shelter.”
“Total column precipitable water was more than 8 standard deviations *above* the 1940-1969 average in September.
“This is nuts and bananas. In fact, it’s even eggplant!”
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1848763976769015966
“The recent Hurricane Oscar has been declared the smallest hurricane ever observed.
“At peak intensity, Oscar had hurricane-force winds extending only 5.75 miles from its center, and gale-force winds only 35 miles out.”
https://x.com/FerragamoWx/status/1849170836076245340
“Florida reports 13 deaths from rare flesh-eating bacteria after hurricanes…
“Vibrio vulnificus are “naturally occurring bacteria in warm, brackish seawater”, requiring salt to live, according to the Florida department of health. Authorities have attributed the surge to Hurricane Helene…”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/22/florida-flesh-eating-bacteria-deaths
“Hurricane Milton was yet another pollution nightmare for Tampa Bay…
“The hurricane double-header doused piles of debris in floodwaters. Then Milton stirred up the pools of muck that had finally started to dry. The smells of spilled sewage, just beginning to fade, soured the air once more.”
“North Carolina farms face depleted, toxic soil after historic Helene flooding.
“It’s not just a question of what Helene, now the nation’s deadliest hurricane since Katrina, took. It’s also a question of what it left behind: tons of soil, sediment and toxic sludge in places where it shouldn’t be – including covering our region’s farms.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/22/north-carolina-farms-hurricane-helene-floods
“Reckitt sees sales slide after £100m tornado hit to baby formula…
“Household goods giant Reckitt Benckiser has revealed falling third-quarter revenues after a £100 million hit to Mead Johnson baby formula powder sales following tornado damage to a key warehouse in the US [Indiana].”
“Hot enough for you? Unusual summerlike warmth is hanging on across much of the U.S., forecasters said, and no real cold is in sight in the forecast…
“…in parts of the U.S., October is shaping up to be one of the warmest, driest Octobers on record, meteorologists said.”
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2024/10/23/hot-dry-fall-weather-forecast/75807396007/
“States across northeastern US put on red alert for deadly wildfires…
“This type of warning means that ‘critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly and any fires that start may spread rapidly and become difficult to extinguish,’ according to the NWS.”
“Record-Breaking Temperatures Mask a Subtler Threat: Chronic Heat.
“Phoenix has become a nerve-wracking bellwether for extreme heat. Arizona’s capital recently endured a three-week stretch when every day broke a heat record… Yet even below the threshold of smashing records, Arizona is also “having hotter days more often, that last a little bit longer,” noted Erinanne Saffell…”
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2024/10/22/798114.htm
“‘I had to fill the tub with ice water’: Americans on how they climate-proof their homes…
“Rose, 62, was living in a remote area of Washington, west of Seattle, when the scorching “heat dome” of 2021 hit the Pacific north-west… The heat dome – which broke local records to reach highs of 120F (49C) – buckled roads, melted electrical cables and caused about 600 excess deaths.”
“Heatwaves are reshaping Squamish rivers—what it means for the community [BC, Canada]…
“If you’ve noticed some curious changes along the Squamish and Cheakamus rivers lately, you’re not alone. New research from Simon Fraser University shows that heatwaves are shifting the timing of river flows, causing snow to melt earlier and extending low-flow periods in summer and fall.”
“Farmers sound the alarm for our global food supply as staple crop [the potato] becomes increasingly difficult to grow.
“”The crop is sensitive to weather conditions,” Bob Leiby, an agronomist with the Pennsylvania Co-Operative Potato Growers, explained. He estimated that in the 1980s, there were 35 nights per year that were too hot for the potato crops. Now, it’s closer to 50 nights per year.”
“Cop29 host Azerbaijan set for major fossil gas expansion, report says…
“Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil and gas company, Socar, and its partners are set to raise the country’s annual gas production from 37bn cubic metres (bcm) today to 49bcm by 2033. Socar also recently agreed to increase gas exports to the European Union by 17% by 2026.”
“Scientists say the slime in your dishwasher could unlock a solution to global warming…
“Though microbes live on every home surface, the group is especially interested in those that live in more extreme environments, including places with high temperatures such as dishwashers, air conditioners, microwaves, solar panels, hot water heaters and shower heads.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/23/climate/microbes-home-carbon-capture-biotech-intl-scli/index.html
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
One thing becoming apparent is just how unlikely the holocene was. The combination of initial conditions and stabilising feedbacks that held conditions just about right for, even as little as, ten thousand years to allow civilisation to prosper was a one in a very large number bet. Half a degree colder and we had the little ice age and half of Europe dead, one degree warmer and who knows where it’s going to end. It was like a dropped coin landing balanced on its edge – very unlikely, only meta stable and unrepeatable. Fermi’s paradox not so paradoxical maybe.
That’s it
That is an interesting perspective, George. The human story is indeed a very odd and improbable one.
Complexity makes our civilisation so brittle now that even some of those relatively minor climate fluctuations of the Holocene would collapse it entirely. The financial system would fail irreversibly under this kind of duress, I suspect:
“Why 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’… Glacier cores reveal Icelandic volcano that plunged Europe into darkness… A mysterious fog plunged Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Asia into darkness, day and night—for 18 months.”
https://www.science.org/content/article/why-536-was-worst-year-be-alive
Farmers sound the alarm for our global food supply as staple crop becomes increasingly difficult to grow: ‘The crop is sensitive’
Story by Jeremiah Budin • 1d • 3 min read
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/farmers-sound-the-alarm-for-our-global-food-supply-as-staple-crop-becomes-increasingly-difficult-to-grow-the-crop-is-sensitive/ar-AA1sOGj1
All around the world, the overheating of our planet means that farmers are struggling to grow crops that have long thrived in their regions. Among those crops is the humble potato, which is becoming significantly more difficult to grow in the United States’ largest potato chip-producing state of Pennsylvania, Marketplace reported.
Potatoes need cool nights in order to grow, and during much of the year in Pennsylvania, those nights are becoming few and far between.
“The crop is sensitive to weather conditions,” Bob Leiby, an agronomist with the Pennsylvania Co-Operative Potato Growers, explained. He estimated that in the 1980s, there were 35 nights per year that were too hot for the potato crops. Now, it’s closer to 50 nights per year.
As a result, Pennsylvania farmers have struggled to produce enough potatoes to fuel the state’s chip makers with locally sourced ingredients. This, in turn, means that potato chip companies have to source potatoes from out of state, driving more transportation costs and even more planet-overheating air pollution from shipping.
Droughts have devastated rice, corn, and mugwort crops in China and corn crops in Colombia, while beekeepers in Mexico are also struggling alongside many other farmers all over the globe.
In addition to droughts, the opposite end of the spectrum of extreme weather — flooding — has also caused massive problems for food growers.
It won’t be long now, kids…hang on tight..it’s gonna be a wild ride my kiddo
Oh, the. Drama of it all
Vince, potatoes have long done well on Islay (Irish Potato Famine apart) but excess water, instead of drought and heat, may put paid to that here.
I hope not – potato-cultivation is central to my prepping plans, as half-baked as they are, if you’ll forgive the corny pun.
“Scientists say the slime in your dishwasher could unlock a solution to global warming…”
Seriously? Sounds almost equivalent to using sponges to unlock a solution to flooding.
I just checked our dishwasher – no slime present. There was an old Cheerio in the drain filter though.
They think all these small strategies are going to add up to a solution to massive emissions from continued use of fossil fuels?
I am happy to report that our dishwasher is also devoid of climate change solving extremophiles, Ed.
Although, to be fair, there could be an incipient colony, as yet invisible to the naked eye.
Hello Pan
Good informative journalistic piece on the Amoc if you at least leave out those few mantras ‘like only….’ etc. Not very promising for the Hebrides by the way. Perhaps so around here is a better alternative for the ‘shorter’ term anyway. You’re welcome and well French I’ll teach you in a few months.
Zip, my move to the Hebrides was partly a hedge against climate change, such that I jokingly thought of myself as a climate change refugee before the fact. It would be very galling to have got it wrong and have to become an actual climate change refugee, hightailing it south again. 😂
In all honesty, though, and your very kind offer notwithstanding, I don’t think I’ve got it in me to start all over again.
Few people are aware that COP 👮♀️, despite what it’s acronym spells out, has no enforcement mechanism; as its 40,000 attendees prepare to bundle onto jets, it might as well stand for Congratulate Oil Producers.
This site is so unique that when talking to “normals” after perusing it is like we live in separate universes; they seriously have no idea what’s barreling down the pike at them.
“Congratulate Oil Producers.”
Rob, nice. 😂
Yes, I’m afraid there is such a huge gulf between the worldview of this site and the prevailing mainstream narratives that it can be disorientating. I don’t suffer that too badly because I work from home and live on an island, so I’m not immersed day to day in a world that is, not to put too fine a point on it, delusional.
Hello Rob
I may be mistaken but I think you made a comment about Russia and shale gas a while ago. I am very interested in Russia as a ‘petrol pump holder’ and world power.
The share of shale gas (according to my research) in Russia’s energy mix is very small, estimated at less than 1%. Russia has huge conventional natural gas reserves and focuses mainly on exploiting these traditional fields, such as in Western Siberia. Although Russia has significant potential shale gas reserves, shale gas production has never been developed on a large scale. Technological limitations, high costs, and the availability of cheap conventional gas have made shale gas only a marginal part of Russia’s energy production.
In my view, developments in the Kara Sea are very interesting to follow.
Hi Zip. When I discuss fracturing, it is always in the context of oil, yet you never mention oil, only natural gas, but Shale gas is not petroleum; like in Texas and North Dakota’s Bakken, shale gas is produced as an unwanted natural resource when fracturing, and is why the US temporarily became the #1 flarer, while Russia was, and is now again, the worst offender (by far) as they haven’t the resources to profitably bring it to market. As you indicate, western Siberia is the source of Russia’s conventional gas, but why go to the doorstep of the Arctic with all “the technological limitations and high costs” involved in drilling in such an environment? It is their more traditional Soviet-era fields, such as the Caspian’s Baku and the northwestern fields in more temperate zones that fracturing is used, and the gas, because it is flared, plays, as you say, a minimal part in what is exported. No country, that I’m aware of, currently uses hydraulic fracturing to purposely produce natural gas, it is always and everywhere used for the more lucrative light tight oil.
Hi pan, first of all thanks for this website and your effort to create it. Secondly, there is much dispute about the gulf stream and amoc that receives zero attention in the press. Simply goog “gulf stream myth” and you will find that the prestigious Lamont Doherty ocean research institute of Columbia University, and prof Richard Seager in particular, has for more than 20 years called this myth an old wives tale, although old husbands probably spew more bs than their wives. Much respect to you, Portland Bear
John, you are welcome. Thank you for the kinds words and welcome to the site. I don’t believe you’ve commented before.
I had not heard of Richard Seager nor his argument that prevailing winds were responsible for NW Europe’s relatively mild winters rather than heat transport from the Gulf Stream. He co-wrote an academic paper on the subject in 2002 and was then quite vociferous about it in the years following. However, by 2008 he’d put his name to this paper, which seems to toe the mainstream line, so I wonder if he changed his mind or softened his position:
“This ocean circulation system transports a substantial amount of heat from the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere toward the North Atlantic, where the heat is transferred to the atmosphere.”
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/td0802.pdf
I was driving today/burning fossil fuel & listening to NPR about climate change. Did not hear the whole episode but I would bet there wasn’t a discussion of peer reviewed studies warning us, from years ago or one mention of Climate and Economy.
I was tolerating the crap when “The Government” came up;They need to do something! When my anger is released from this mortal coil into the ether, disturbance in the force, will be a walk in the park. This anger at stupidity will shake the 11 dimensions. No one will take any responsibility for anything they do, everyone must have the last name,Trump. Who is “The Government”? Every asshole that voted idiots into office & the other assholes that do nothing but bitch & moan. NMF!
My consolation is watching this species & it’s ego, go extinct.
To much? Too soon? 😉