A big thank you to October’s sponsor, Rusty Flanagan.
“Yesterday’s record low global sea-ice extent was more than 350,000 km² below the previous record for October 19th, set just last year.
“Yesterday’s extent was over 900,000 km² below the pre-2023 record.
“This is what record-low global sea-ice extent looks like in snapshot format.”
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1848017635654369608
“Arctic mission finds climate impact even in remotest wilderness…
“Logging new data every day of its expedition, the crew collected samples including eDNA and microplastics, acoustics recordings, water salinity, and CO2 concentration to create a clear picture of the ‘catastrophic’ impacts of climate change back home.”
https://oceanographicmagazine.com/news/arctic-mission-finds-climate-impact-in-remotest-wilderness/
“Climate scientists appeal to the Nordic Council of Ministers for urgent action to protect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…
“The letter draws attention to the potentially catastrophic consequences if the AMOC – a key ocean circulation system responsible for regulating climate patterns – continues to decline.”
“Rowers grounded after Oxford hit by its wettest month in 250 years.
“Heavy rain has prevented Oxford rowers from going on the river as September marked the wettest month Oxford has seen since 1774. Researchers at Oxford University’s Radcliffe Meteorological Station recorded a staggering 193mm of rainfall last month…”
https://cherwell.org/2024/10/20/rowers-grounded-after-oxford-hit-by-its-wettest-month-in-250-years/
“Exceptional mildness in Scandinavia.
“In Denmark tonight the minimum temperatures were locally above 14C like in the capital Copenhagen with 14.2C [57.6F], a record for so late in the season.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1848310779818246385
“Severe weather means the German reinsurer [Hannover RE] anticipates further price increases and improved terms at January renewals…
“Severe flooding experienced in central Europe – a repeat of previous years – was central to the German reinsurer’s prediction for a hard market renewal, rather than gradual softening seen over the past year internationally.”
“Italy left reeling by heavy rain, flooding…
“Italian news agency ANSA referred to much of the area as “remaining on its knees” after the “widespread devastation” caused by the flooding. It also reported that this was the fourth time Emilia-Romagna had experienced severe flooding in less than 18 months.”
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202410/22/WS6716fea1a310f1265a1c8d49.html
“‘Worse Than War’: Bosnian Flood Survivors Struggle to Rebuild Their Lives…
“In the devastating floods that hit Bosnia and Herzegovina at the start of this month, in which 27 people died, landslides from a nearby stream knocked damaged houses, yards, cellars and barns.”
“Summer drought has led to higher vegetable prices in Bulgaria.
“This summer’s drought has led to higher vegetable prices in Bulgaria, with peppers, pink tomatoes, and broccoli seeing noticeable price increases.”
“Cyprus dams at critically low levels…
“According to Yianna Economidou, senior executive engineer at the Water Development Department, the dams are currently at just 27% capacity, down from 49% at this time last year, with levels continuing to drop due to a lack of rainfall.”
https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1251424/cyprus-dams-at-critically-low-levels-2/
“Responders to Nigeria’s flood crisis are themselves affected by crisis.
“Flash floods throughout West and Central Africa have left more than 5 million people in need of humanitarian assistance across Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria and other countries in the region.”
https://www.unfpa.org/news/responders-nigeria%E2%80%99s-flood-crisis-are-themselves-affected-crisis
“Eastern Cape floods: Evacuations under way amid heavy rain in Gqeberha, Kariega [South Africa]…
“Parts of Gqeberha and Kariega have experienced severe flooding following heavy rain in the Eastern Cape. Gift of the Givers Foundation operations manager Ali Sablay said calls were pouring in for humanitarian assistance.”
“A million people hit by flooding in South Sudan.
“More than a quarter of those – many in the north – have been forced from their homes by rising waters… In Pibor, in the east, 112,000 people have lost their homes, according to a government relief agency there.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgey3e7yrvxo
“It has been a really hot year in Middle East. If the current record heat continues in the next 2 months, the Saudi town of Makkah might record a yearly average of 33C [91.4F].
“This would be a WORLD RECORD of highest yearly average worldwide in an inhabited place and highest above sea level.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1848048609587310780
“Floods recovery ‘test case’ leaves millions still in tents [Pakistan]…
“Pakistan is a disappointing test case for global financial co-operation aimed at helping countries after extreme climate events, local and international officials say, as 12 million victims languish in tents and makeshift huts after devastating floods two years ago.”
https://www.ft.com/content/5dbcb6d5-d6bf-4549-9aa5-fd964efbc206
“Boats out in Bengaluru as heavy overnight rain floods neighbourhood [India].
“Boats were seen navigating the flooded streets of Bengaluru following heavy overnight rain that inundated several neighborhoods. The relentless downpour led to significant waterlogging, stranding residents and disrupting normal life.”
“Cyclone Dana Live Updates: ‘100% evacuation’ from areas at risk as IMD issues heavy rainfall alert for Odisha, Bengal…
“IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the system is likely to take the shape of a severe cyclonic storm. He said parts of Odisha are likely to experience heavy to very heavy rainfall from October 23 onwards.”
“Floods destroy 1.1 million tons of rice in Bangladesh…
“The floods have also severely impacted other agricultural products, including more than 200,000 tons of vegetables. Total nationwide agricultural losses due to the flooding are estimated at around 45 billion taka ($380 million).”
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/floods-destroy-11-mln-tons-rice-bangladesh-2024-10-20/
“HISTORIC HEAT IN HONG KONG – 36.2 [97.2F] at Wetland Park, never been that hot this time of the year…
“Tonight the temperature at Hong Kong Int. AP didn’t drop below 27.9C and in Macau 28.4C in 1 station; extraordinary for an October 20th.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1847641620243517665
“Tropical Storm Kristine triggers flash floods in Central Mindanao [Philippines]…
“Almost all public and private schools in Cotabato, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, and Maguindanao provinces have been suspended on Tuesday. The Sultan Kudarat Electric Cooperative in Lebak and Kalamansig reported that trees were toppled by strong winds and heavy downpours that hit the towns…”
“Historic day in INDONESIA: 37.7C [99.9F] today at Larantuka ties the HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN FLORES ISLAND (same temperature was recorded in 2004).
“Hundreds of records are falling from Oceania to Middle East. Wait for more tweets.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1847616093495402850
“A burst of unusually hot weather will cause severe to extreme heatwave conditions across parts of three states and territories in northern Australia this week…
“On Monday, smoke from numerous fires could be seen across the NT, including a vast area of smoke that was capture by the afternoon sea breeze along the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria.”
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/heatwave-gripping-northern-australia-this-week/1890016
“RECORD HEAT IN OCEANIA – all tropics keep smashing records non-stop.
“HOTTEST OCTOBER NIGHT EVER RECORDED IN SAMOA – both the airports of Apia and Faleolo had a Tmin of 26.8C [80.2F].”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1848178101529739427
“After the record hot days, the Amazon region of Ecuador breaks a record for hottest October night.
“24.9C [76.8F] was the minimum today at Lago Agrio, the highest ever recorded in October.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1848083483924562372
“Historic heat in the Caribbean.
“Today Montego Bay had a minimum temperature of 27.8C [82F] which ties the Jamaican record of October hottest night in history, which was also recorded at Kingston in October 2014… SINT EUSTATIUS (Dutch Caribbeans) just had its October hottest night in history with a Minimum of 28.4C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1848447201074147520
“Hurricane Oscar dumps heavy rain across Cuba amid power outage…
“Over the weekend Miguel Díaz-Canel, Cuba’s president, appeared in the military style uniform of the National Defence Council, which only happens in times of national emergency and usually due to severe weather.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/21/cuba-hurricane-oscar-power-outage
“Mexico’s water crisis: Day Zero and the looming threat of scarcity.
““Day Zero” — the day when water resources become irreversibly scarce — is rapidly bearing down upon the country. Here, the crisis is driven by a confluence of factors: inequality in access, pollution and the ever-accelerating impact of climate change.”
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/mexico-water-crisis-day-zero-and-the-looming-threat-of-scarcity/
“Historic heat in MEXICO.
“The Culiacan International Airport, Sinaloa State, rose to 44.0C [111.2F], if correct this would be the highest temperature ever recorded there in its whole climatic history, beating the 43.9C of 22 August 1973.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1848524041071497426
“Officials tour ‘unbelievable’ deadly flood damage in Roswell [New Mexico] following historic rainfall…
“New Mexico and federal officials continued to survey damage in Chaves County on Monday after deadly flash floods ripped through Roswell over the weekend, washing away cars, submerging buildings and leaving much of the city under a layer of silt.”
https://sourcenm.com/2024/10/21/flood-damage-in-roswell-following-historic-rainfall/
“We will likely have around half of the US Climate stations recording their driest October. Look at how many are #1 for the driest month-to-date!
“Could this be the driest month ever recorded in the Lower 48? Not much will fall from the sky over the next 7 days either.”
https://x.com/BillKarins/status/1848415099977113771
“Farms in Philadelphia region feeling impacts of drought: “We’ve never seen it this dry”.
“It has been 23 days without any measurable rain in the Delaware Valley. The worsening drought is taking a toll on agriculture in Delaware County and other parts of the Philadelphia region.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/drought-farms-linvilla-orchards-clover-valley/
“Warm temperatures broke record for heat [Connecticut]…
“The record was 82 degrees, set in in Windsor Locks in 1920. The temperature reached 86 at Bradley Airport Monday afternoon. It is the warmest temperature ever reached in Connecticut this late in the year.”
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather-news/very-warm-monday-with-near-record-heat-possible/3413848/
“Wildfires Set Acreage Record, Strain Oregon Resources.
“Blazes this season have set an acreage record with 1.9 million acres burned in Oregon at the end of September. Battling them has also stretched firefighters thin nationwide and, in Oregon, sapped state funding.”
https://www.govtech.com/em/safety/wildfires-set-acreage-record-strain-oregon-resources
“Death toll from B.C. atmospheric river climbs as driver found dead, another presumed drowned.
“”It feels like we’re dealing with climate change considerations all throughout the year now… “When it’s not forest fires or smoke from forest fires, now we’re dealing with floods and inundations of rain that have impacts on people’s lives.””
“Climate Change Is Killing Buildings in Slow Motion…
“Buildings constructed and maintained for one climate scenario are rapidly finding themselves experiencing another one, with the expense of adaptation borne by property owners, renters and taxpayers.”
“Global warming is getting accelerated. Data source NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
“Best linear fit is 0.18C/decade for 1970-2010.
“0.34C/decade for 2010- present.”
https://x.com/MakikoSato6/status/1848386647957663891
“Code Yikes!
“Based on the forecast for the rest of the month, there’s a good chance October will end up being the warmest month globally since March of this year, possibly more than 1.6°C above pre-industrial (currently 1.58°C through Oct. 17th).”
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1847660578690813967
“Universities expected to solve climate change…
“Nearly two-thirds (61%) of adults say they expect global research universities, such as the University of Cambridge, to come up with new technologies and innovations that will help to reduce the effects of climate change, according to new polling released today.”
https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/2024-climate-polling
“…spraying millions of tonnes of diamonds into the sky could finally be the solution to global warming that we’ve been searching for.
“That’s according to scientists from the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, who set out to investigate the effects of spraying various aerosols into the atmosphere to cool Earth.”
“Humanity is on the verge of ‘shattering Earth’s natural limits’, say experts in biodiversity warning…
““We are already locked in for significant damage, and we’re heading in a direction that will see more,” says Tom Oliver, professor of applied ecology at the University of Reading. “I really worry that negative changes could be very rapid.””
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
I have always found the concept of the Earth’s climate sensitivity somewhat confusing and unintentionally misleading. First there appears to be two sensitivities, the larger one gives the temperature after all feed backs have played out, and the other if only the fast ones like water vapour and sea ice changes have kicked in. Hence the second number depends on how quickly things occur and how far some of the slower feed backs like sea level rise or ice sheet melt have gone at the time we are predicting the sensitivity.
The sensitivity is defined by assuming the CO2 is doubled from pre-industrial times but the other (non water) GHGs are left the same. This is a hypothetical condition that is not going to be seen because the other GHGs are increasing, so you have to calculate an equivalent CO2 concentration based on some mix of CO2, methane, N2O, SF8 etc.for the future. Even this is not as straight forward as applying equivalents to each individual concentration because the absorption bands of each gas overlap with each other and with water, so for example the equivalence for methane actually changes depending on how much CO2 is present in the mix. NASA provide some (not very) simplified equations to do this.
Like the “temperature in 2100” meme the equilibrium sensitivity can be misleading as it can imply that we’ll get to the doubled CO2 point and go no further. It also can give the impression that if we stop emitting CO2 at that point CO2 will remain steady, it won’t if permafrost melt, deforestation etc. feed backs are continuing. In fact there may no longer be a steady state with doubled CO2 even if we stopped emitting now; the latest data are indicating we are heading for a hot house condition as predicted in the “Pathways of the Anthropocene”paper from six or seven years ago.
In the medium and long term these niceties don’t matter much. There is a wide range on the predicted sensitivities and each piece of new research seems to indicate the higher numbers are most likely. Therefore we are headed for at least three degrees of average warming which will be five to ten over land. That average and the extreme volatile weather events it engenders means agriculture will be impossible and civilisation will collapse. Small bands of genetically bottlenecked survivors might last for a few thousands years but the environment will be so damaged that sooner rather than later humans will likely go extinct.
George, thank you for your thoughts. Climate sensitivity is, as you say, an inexact and still hotly contested area of science. One can get very bogged down in some of these intricacies.
Re human extinction, it seems highly possible to me, but it’s not something I’ve deeply pondered. Just getting my head around the collapse of civilisation and the absolute mayhem that that would entail is challenge enough.
This round-up was a head spinner!
Thank you, Regan.
‘Don’t you hate it when that happens?’
Beetlejuice
Shocking admission, especially for a person who loves everything 80’s – I have seen neither the original nor the recent sequel.
Pan wrote: “… a person who loves everything 80’s.”
Ooh, me too! Always happy to find another 80’s-lovin’ internet netizen.
Some more urgency is detected by us long-time long-term collapse observers, but even the casual dire warnings by paycheck-earning academics never name and shame the corporate arm that feeds them.
All these meetings and pronouncements by individual academic scientists never acknowledge the microscopic social power they hold in relation to the corporate & state-corporate juggernaut that is supremely positioned to drive humanity to its self-organized extinction.
All these academics are so nice to the corporate “leaders” they love to talk to and think they have some influence over, as is exhibited in the Pravda-like PR boosterism of the Univeristy of Cambridge piece.
Yes, most all of us have gotten paychecks from these same corporate or corporate-adjacent behemoths, so there is no getting away, for either young or old. All I ask today is that you feel shitty about it, and stop faking the funk.
Martin, Cambridge Uni has been running some huge deficits of late and recently joined the chorus of UK universities calling for higher tuition fees, which may partly explain their eagerness to promote themselves as potentially critical to the species’ survival.
It’s a pretty good funding pitch. 😆
Hello Pan
We keep pinning our hopes on science and technology. Well all laboratory work. I took a quick look at the AMOC, and that lame note that ‘scientists’ posted about it. That is really about huge water displacements that are literally beyond your ‘mind’.
The water displacement in the AMOC is enormous. Scientists estimate that the amount of water displaced by the AMOC is about 15 to 20 Sverdrups (Sv). One Sverdrup corresponds to a displacement of one million cubic metres of water per second. That means the AMOC moves between 15 and 20 million cubic metres of water per second!
By comparison, this is roughly one hundred times!!! the water flow of all the world’s rivers combined. This huge volume of water transports heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic, which has a major impact on the climate of both Europe and North America.
Well do your best geoengineers…. good luck with it!
Zip, I came across this tweet from Leon Simons, who has read through the recent study looking at AMOC shutdown probabilities and found this rather alarming nugget:
“This statement was based on the ORAS5 [Ocean Reanalysis System 5]: “the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be 59 ±17%”
“Using SODA [Simple Ocean Data Assimilation] they get 91%, and using GLORYS [Global Ocean reanalysis and Simulation] 92% ; no standard deviations given. Using the precautionary principle, we’d better assume AMOC is tipping!”
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1848015548518465730
The cognitive dissonance is really coming through today. Big shoutout to Cambridge for uh solving climate change!
I’m across the state from Philadelphia (~350 miles) and can confirm it’s been a dryyyyyy fall. It’s been cloudless day after cloudless day and it doesn’t show signs of stopping
Zip…this just popped up..
Atmospheric Rivers Could Double Sea Level Height Along US West Coast
Published Oct 22, 2024 at 5:57 AM EDT
https://www.newsweek.com/atmospheric-rivers-double-sea-level-height-along-us-west-coast-1972367
….Researchers conducted simulations to assess how atmospheric rivers (ARs) influence ocean processes, focusing on their effects on sea surface height.
The study’s findings, published in Communications Earth & Environment, indicate that during these AR events, strong winds push ocean water toward the coast, piling up against land barriers and raising sea levels dramatically.
In regions such as Southern California and the Pacific Northwest, sea level increases caused by ARs could exceed 200 percent under worst-case scenarios of future global warming.
….We find that ARs do have a big impact on things like sea surface height, ultimately pushing water toward the coast. Under climate change, this will amplify,” she continued.
While ARs are typically associated with rain-induced damage, the research highlights another important effect: their ability to influence ocean dynamics. The powerful winds and turbulence they generate not only stir the upper ocean layers but also contribute to rising sea levels through increased wind stress.
“Atmospheric rivers push the water along with the flow at the surface,” Shields said. “The winds from the air interact with the ocean surface, and when an AR approaches the coast, the ocean surface currents change to cause the sea surface height to increase along the coast.”
The simulations used by the researchers provided a more detailed picture of how atmospheric rivers interact with the ocean than was previously available, showing that wind stress during AR events can lead to substantial increases in sea surface height along the coast.
Forgive me if this posted before, too much to keep in mind…only so much 😜..thanks for the coverage Justin and comments by others here..
Vince, thank you – I don’t believe I have posted it. Somewhere some insurance industry wonk is wading through that study… 😬
John, yes, my goodness – nothing but sun forecast for your part of the world.
Here on Islay we are mopping up after Storm Ashley. Some storm surge, coupled with a very high tide, pushed water over parts of the coastal road and flooded some properties. Seaweed and pebbles from the bay were all over the road at the bottom of my hill. I’ve been here nearly ten years and never seen that before.
Goddamn these “records broken” posts have been all over your feed. One can click on a month’s, or even a few months’, of your climate feed and keep seeing that records just keep being broken.
Pan, I feel like something (many things?) is really broken now and that tipping points have been crossed.
BTW, regarding our last interaction, yes, I remember Jeff Fenech as a kid especially between 85 – 91. No relation to me though. The dude was an absolute whirlwind of an incredible boxer.
James, we should not be seeing this many heat records falling as we move into La Nina.
FWIW, I went back three years to see what my climate thread looked like on that day. There was one confirmed heat record: the town of Wyndham in northern Australia rose to 45.1C [113.2F], which was a new record for October.
https://climateandeconomy.com/2021/10/23/23rd-october-2021-todays-round-up-of-climate-news/
Flooding affecting 5 million in Nigeria, 1 million in South Sudan, 12 million in Pakistan, and on and on. Makes the impact of Hurricane Helene here in western North Carolina seem miniscule. And same as John Bee’s comment above – been bone dryhere since Sept. 27 when Helene was over.
Agricultural impacts are significant now.
Those numbers are staggering and yet chicken feed to what is coming down the pipe, as mind-boggling as that is. I realised I forgot to include the Mexican flooding in the thread:
“More than 40 municipalities cut off, flooded roads and thousands of flooded homes are registered in the Mexican state of Veracruz…”
https://es-us.noticias.yahoo.com/fuertes-lluvias-inundaciones-golpean-estado-152808355.html
I’ve recently read of scientists working to bring the dodo, mammoths and aurochs “back from extinction”. If scientists of this caliber don’t understand that it is habitat destruction that drives extinction, how likely is it they will stop the habitat destruction on steroids that mankind’s economic system has proven itself to be?
As the green machine continues to churn out whiz-bang scientific breakthroughs such as hydraulic fracturing, aviation and ICE machine fuel from food crops, crypto, AI, space hops for the morbidly lazy and EV’s, all of which accelerate the globe toward irreversible tipping points, consider this one factoid well known to every scientist:
Under the current industrial agricultural regime, Every calorie you consume takes 10 calories of oil to produce, and since the same industrial agricultural regime is used to grow corn for fuel as used to grow corn for food, the same equation would necessarily apply: for every calorie of fuel obtained, 10 calories must be expended to produce it.
Listen to the science … until it threatens your federal subsidies.
Upton Sinclair’s maxim holds to this day:
You can’t get someone to understand something if their livelihood depends on them not understanding it.
People pretend to believe that climate change is a hoax not because they actually believe it, but because they believe doing something about it will threaten their jobs. And nothing else matters, ‘cause ya gotta eat.
Rob, don’t forget the thylacine!
“Scientists claim breakthrough to bringing back Tasmanian tiger from extinction. Scientists claim to have made progress towards “de-extinction” and estimate their DNA sequence for the thylacine – or Tasmanian tiger – is 99.9% accurate.”
https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-claim-breakthrough-to-bringing-back-tasmanian-tiger-from-extinction-13234815
Quite why we are so hell bent on resurrecting extinct animals when we can’t look after the ones we have is beyond me.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/16/climate/global-water-cycle-off-balance-food-production/index.html
I cant remember if this was in a thread or not but Paul Beckwith video on it. Water cycle is off but this this true for a long time.
Thanks, Heather. It was in an earlier thread but a big story so worth revisiting. Paul Beckwith’s videos are very informative and rather good to unwind to, I find.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtKbrwS8vDM
“Nearly two-thirds (61%) of adults say they expect global research universities, such as the University of Cambridge, to come up with new technologies and innovations that will help to reduce the effects of climate change, according to new polling released today.”
This is very true. The general public believes “the smart people” will come up with something to save us in the nick of time. Of course without us having to sacrifice our consumption levels.
Hope tends to be the greatest of curses.
We do tend to focus on our own brilliance, Nat. Human ego is a monstrous beast.
I recall being totally bowled over by the realisation that mainstream economic theory did not acknowledge the centrality of energy in economic activity and instead saw human ingenuity as the primary driver of growth – such a narcissistic assumption.
Take this 2015 treatise by Andy Haldane, then Chief Economist at the Bank of England, on the causes, and history of, economic growth. He manages to discuss the Industrial Revolution without once mentioning coal. The only energy mentioned throughout the entire paper is “cognitive energy”!
When I originally read it, I just couldn’t believe that someone holding such a key position of authority could have such a huge and critical blind-spot. Now I’m totally used to it. 😂
https://www.bis.org/review/r150219b.pdf
For people singled in on one subject, they tend to underestimate or take no stock in the value of all the other interlinking and connecting parts.
I am sure it this instance, the assumption is once one energy source is depleted another will be found, and so to ponder upon it’s role is not relevant to the economics that come after. To your point, human ego.