Huge thanks to Kimpton Bradford for being my monthly sponsor again. His words:
“During this early autumn month, let’s thank the intellectual giants who came before us and helped illuminate the path towards recognising the dramatic changes taking place in our environment. Henry David Thoreau, John Muir and Aldo Leopold form part of a remarkable intellectual throughline, laying the foundations for so many of the thinkers we listen to and lean on today.”
“The Ocean’s En Fuego! 15% of the oceans are record warm right now. Double the record of 7.3% set back in 2023. (data NOAA OISST)…
“That record is a mid Sept record, not necessarily an all-time record… although it could be an all-time record (it would be a lot of time/ work to analyze that).”
[Jeff Berardelli]
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2098872859800084986
“The warmth over western Siberia extending into the Kara Sea basin has been very persistent this summer, with temperature anomalies easily more than 5°C above the 1981-2010 average. This is one of the fast changing parts of the Arctic during the boreal summer season.
“Data from ERA5 reanalysis.” [Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3mvi32sjtkk2j
“35 DEGREES [95F] IN SIBERIA IN MID SEPTEMBER! The brutally hot air from Middle East is moving East with 40C in Kazakhstan, 35C In Siberia at 53N latitude.
“Next days the hot air will enter China and Mongolia with temperatures up to 35C at 1000m asl. It’s a never ending fabric of heat waves.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2098896157044830308
“The Isle of Man has experienced its two warmest summers on record in the last two years, according to Ronaldsway Met Office.
“Temperature was a standout, with the mean summer temperature reaching 16.4°C.”
“Subsidence claims ‘to hit £250m’ within months after record heatwave [UK].
“Subsidence claims are poised to hit £250m between August and November after thousands of homes were damaged by drought, a specialist company has warned… “Structural damage caused by hot summer temperatures could trigger surge in payouts.”
“‘Monster rats’ are multiplying in the UK thanks to warm weather.
“Britain is suffering a monster rat boom as extreme weather changes help the enormous rodents multiply, according to an expert. Pest control expert Paul Claydon says he has never seen so many rats, nor such large ones.”
https://metro.co.uk/2026/09/13/monster-rats-multiplying-uk-thanks-warm-weather-29597046/
“Mid-September, and we’re still exceeding 37°C [98.6F] in France, whereas in the last century, reaching such temperatures was already rare even in the heart of summer.
“Never before has a drought in France spilled over so much into autumn. And the situation is not expected to improve quickly…” [Dr Serge Zaka]
https://x.com/SergeZaka/status/2099532769869083127
“Switzerland feels cost of record summer heat.
“Record temperatures and historic drought made April to July the hottest and driest period ever recorded in Switzerland. Here’s how the unprecedented summer heatwave has affected elderly residents, farmers, businesses and nature.”
“Researchers identify rubber-related chemicals in Swiss milk…
“More surprising was the discovery that dairy equipment itself may contribute to contamination. Analysis of hoses, seals and other rubber components used in milk production revealed 14 rubber-related chemicals. “What is surprising is that these compounds come from materials legally authorized to be in contact with food,” Breider says.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-09-rubber-chemicals-swiss.html
“Croatia’s toxic waste dump scandal shows the cost of Europe’s ‘forever chemicals’.
“…the evidence of PFAS contamination in groundwater is raising questions about the chemicals’ growing role in the country’s industry. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Zagreb earlier this month (5 September) to protest over harmful waste that has been illegally dumped in Croatia and remains uncleared.”
“Croatia: ‘Monster’ fire triggers evacuation on Brac island…
“The situation was especially dramatic near the small town of Milna on the island’s western coast. “Last night was a disaster. It was simply impossible,” Milna Mayor Frane Lozic told Net.hr news outlet. “I would have not believed that [the fire] can wipe out everything in its path so quickly.””
https://www.dw.com/en/croatia-monster-fire-triggers-evacuation-on-brac-island/a-79250480
“Wildfires Burn Thousands of Hectares, Exposing Albania’s Systemic Weaknesses…
“In early September, wildfires engulfed Himara, burning olive groves on the hills around the Albanian coastal city and forcing emergency evacuations. Thick smoke blanketed the city as the flames spread towards inhabited areas.”
“A rare hurricane-like storm may form soon near Libya.
“It’s difficult to predict the path of this type of system, but it could impact Greece, northern Libya or northwest Egypt… The strongest medicane on record was named Ianos, which impacted Greece on Sept. 17 and 18, 2020.”
“Passengers screamed in terror as severe turbulence rocked a Turkish Airlines flight during its descent into Tunisia, with one traveler saying the plane “started to plummet” after repeated attempts to land in stormy weather.
“The flight from Istanbul was approaching Tunis-Carthage International Airport on Thursday when poor weather turned what had been a smooth journey into a frightening ordeal.”
“Algeria | Guelma.
“Massive sizes of hailstones from Ain Arko village in the municipality of Tamalous, Guelma Province, during the recent atmospheric instability.” [Arab Storms]
https://x.com/Arab_Storms/status/2099572679942844545
“Record August heat prompts calls for stronger water protection in Morocco.
“For Morocco, Ouedghiri said, the concern extends beyond temperature records to the pressure that heat, irregular rainfall and repeated drought place on water supplies, farming and food security. Moroccanculture insights.”
“HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN NORTH AFRICA:
“Absolute insanity going on with thousands of records every day for months allover North and Central Africa Today. 45.2C [113.4F] Bima is HOTTEST SEPTEMBER DAY EVER RECORDED IN NIGER. 45C in Morocco.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2098845275724882242
“Heatwaves worsen plight of displaced people in conflict-hit Sudan.
“Millions of displaced people in Sudan are suffering from a devastating heatwave that has gripped the country since the beginning of summer, worsening living conditions amid dwindling resources and medical supplies across the war-torn country.”
“In parts of Africa, rainmakers face cruel violence by farmers as climate change vexes many.
“The farmers who paid David Nabutsilili money to summon rain were angry when they received so much of it that their vegetable gardens were left flooded. They chased him up and down the hills, stopping when he fell upon a rock and broke a femur. That was his punishment.”
“More record heat in INDIA.
“Tonight was an extremely hot night in Rajastan with a Minimum temperature of 30.6C [87.1F] at Jaisalmer, the highest ever recorded in September.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2099422296796438780
“Himalayan glacier mass loss accelerated 65% over past decade: Report…
“The report, prepared through a partnership involving global systems-change company Systemiq and India’s Integrated Mountain Initiative (IMI), describes the Himalayas as approaching a critical tipping point and calls attention to major gaps in monitoring and disaster preparedness.”
“India to supply Nepal electricity after floods wrecked hydropower projects.
“At least 12 hydropower projects in Nepal were hit, with at least 900 power station workers among the more than 5,500 people still missing in the country. Almost 100 percent of the country’s energy needs were met by hydropower before the floods hit.”
“The death toll from the landslide disaster in Nepal has risen to 1,396.
“Earlier reports put the death toll at 1,386. More than 5,100 people remain missing. During a telephone conversation with his Latvian counterpart Baiba Braze on Monday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi confirmed that China, which was also affected by the disaster, would make every effort to continue the search for those missing.”
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-09-15/news-1Qs2AneXBOE/p.html
“Affected by a tropical depression, Wuzhishan in Hainan was struck by extreme torrential rain on September 14; the 24-hour rainfall of 729mm [28.7 inches] broke the record…
“The rain has triggered the worst flooding in the area’s history.” [Jim Yang]
“Tornado hits south China’s Hainan Province, downing numerous trees.
“Based on on-site surveys and weather analysis, the local meteorological department said wind speeds reached Force 11 to 12, snapping numerous trees. A school affected by the tornado is actively organizing cleanup and recovery efforts.”
“Typhoon Forecast to Approach Okinawa During Silver Week…
“The Japan Meteorological Agency’s latest simulations show active rain clouds associated with the system moving toward Okinawa through around September 22. The storm could then make a U-turn-like change in direction around September 23, with rainfall forecast to intensify in western and northern Japan.”
https://newsonjapan.com/article/150750.php
“Korea’s aquaculture takes full blow of climate change.
“I’ve been farming fish for 38 years, but with sea temperatures rising each year and losses snowballing like this, I don’t know how we’re going to hold on.
A putrid stench blanketed the area as about a dozen fishing boats docked one by one at Dara Port in Sanyang-eup, Tongyeong, South Gyeongsang Province.”
“Record heat in INDONESIA never ends:
“Today Jakarta Airport had a Minimum of 26.5C [79.7F] – this was its hottest September night on record.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2098754663789060574
“Extreme warming in Indian Ocean added 695 billion tons of ice to Antarctica ice sheet.
“While climate change is melting glaciers, the East Antarctic ice sheet grew by nearly 700 billion tons over three years. While that might sound like good news, it is actually proof that global warming can wreak havoc on the planet. Here is what actually happened.”
“Ararat records warmest winter [Victoria, Australia].
“Ararat has notched up its warmest winter on record despite receiving almost 50 per cent more rain than usual across the season. Bureau of Meteorology figures show Ararat Prison recorded a mean temperature of 9.2 degrees across June, July and August – the highest in its 50-year winter record.”
https://www.westvicnews.com.au/ararat-records-warmest-winter-2026-09-15
“Soaked region: Southland records wettest winter in 46 years [NZ]…
“Murihiku Southland has gone from a drier-than-usual autumn to its wettest winter in more than 45 years, leaving the region soaked… “We’ve gone from very low rainfall in May to high and very high rainfall from late June onwards,” he said.”
https://southlandtribune.substack.com/p/soaked-region-southland-records-wettest
“Here is the latest combined forecast across all 14 models, compared to past strong El Nino events. It shows just how extreme and unprecedented this event is forecast to be:”
[Zeke Hausfather]
https://x.com/hausfath/status/2099531061659152831
“Breaking News! Code: y-Axis Alert!
“On September 11th, the preliminary Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature measured 2.98°C above the 1991-2020 mean, which was 4.03 standard deviations above the mean. No previous year has broken 3SD.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2098795299041054963
“Ocean anomalies up to 14°F! While El Niño drives global weather patterns, its biggest impacts are arguably local in Peru, Ecuador and the Galápagos Islands.
“The extreme warmth along the coast is disrupting one of the most productive ocean ecosystems on Earth.” [Jeff Berardelli]
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2099227798271582303
“Avalanche of Sept. records on the Peruvian coast, thanks to the development of a historic El Niño:
36.5°C [97.7F] El Salto, 35.8°C Jayanca, 35.0°C Lancones, 34.0°C Puerto Pizarro, 33.3°C Bernal, 30.0°C Hacienda B., 28.6°C Huarmey, 28.0°C Trujillo, 27.0°C Lima-Campo de M etc.” [Thierry Goose]
https://x.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/2099673010957664554
“Ecuador battles wildfires as blazes spread across 5 provinces…
“Nine wildfires remain active across Ecuador, with emergencies reported in five provinces, according to the latest report from the National Risk Management Secretariat… Authorities are maintaining continuous monitoring of the affected areas and coordinating emergency response efforts as conditions develop.”
“Ushuaia, Argentina, Just Recorded Its Least Snowy Winter in 40 Years [since systematic monitoring and measurements began].
“Data released from the meteorological winter (June, July, and August) shows that the city—famously known as the “end of the world” and a premier gateway for Southern Andes skiing—reached a 40-year snow low.”
https://snowbrains.com/ushuaia-argentina-just-recorded-its-least-snowy-winter-in-40-years/
“Rain causes deaths, flooding and landslides in São Paulo…
“The rain also caused flooding in different parts of São Paulo. During the night, the Climate Emergency Management Center (CGE) placed the south, west, east, north and southeast zones, in addition to the marginal Pinheiros and Tietê, in a state of attention for flooding.”
“‘Carbon fever’ threatens hard-won Indigenous rights in Bolivian Amazon.
“Indigenous leaders of three ethnic groups – the Tacana, Ese Ejja and Cabineño – have complained about companies and foundations that arrive with offers of “climate solutions”, often during the ever more frequent droughts or floods. “We heard about this [carbon] business and nobody understood what it was,” says Julio Mayo, from the Cabineña nation…”
“Panama canal traffic to be cut again as drought from El Niño worsens…
“From October, an average of 29.5 vessels will be allowed to transit daily – down 18% from 36 in August, according to a draft plan submitted to Panama’s parliament. In September, officials cut daily transits from 36 to 32 because of the drought.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/15/panama-canal-traffic-cut-trade-drought-el-nino
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN CENTRAL AMERICA. Record after record pulverized again:
“42.3 [108.1F] Choluteca HONDURAS HOTTEST SEPTEMBER DAY IN HISTORY; 29.1C Choluteca, 28.1 Trujillo HONDURAS HOTTEST SEPTEMBER NIGHT EVER; 40.3 Alcahuapa EL SALVADOR HOTTEST SEPTEMBER DAY IN HISTORY.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2099160052770779441
“VIDEOS of the serious flooding today, September 14 in Ecatepec: cars swept away and streets under water.
“The emergency left images of vehicles trapped and dragged by the current, in addition to significant accumulations of water in different parts of both municipalities. The effects reached main roads and areas where drainage was insufficient due to the volume of rain.”
“Tijuana River is chronically polluted with sewage, chemicals…
““Our monitoring documents the unprecedented levels of sewage and industrial pollution in the Tijuana River that are causing severe impacts to public health, the Tijuana River Estuary and our coastal ocean waters,” Phillip Musegaas, Coastkeeper’s executive director, said in a statement.”
“Rio Grande’s Trouble Is Worse Than Most Realize…
“It’s not simply drought: Herrera explains how a 1944 US-Mexico water treaty built on unrealistic flow estimates, expanding agricultural production on both sides of the border, and “use it or lose it” water rights that reward maxing out irrigation all helped push the Rio Grande to the brink.”
https://www.newser.com/story/396060/rio-grandes-trouble-is-worse-than-most-realize.html
“South‑Central US Bakes as Another Heat Dome Locks In Late Summer Extremes…
“Millions now face another week of dangerous heat, worsening air quality and the potential for storms forming along the dome’s edges as the pattern expands eastward.”
https://www.newsweek.com/south-central-us-heat-dome-late-summer-extremes-12441032
“North Texas set a new heat record for the month of September.
“Sunday’s high of 103 degrees marked the 12th triple-digit day of September in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, setting a record for the most 100-degree days ever recorded in the month of September. More triple-digit temperatures and daily high records are possible this week…”
“I’ve noted before that September is increasingly becoming a full-fledged summer month, regularly running warmer than Junes from earlier in the historical record.
“But there’s still been a hard seasonal boundary: no September has ever been warmer than any July or August in the Contiguous US record. That could very well change in 2026.” [The Global Warmer]
https://x.com/TheGlobalWarmer/status/2099581138595394004
“Drenching rains bring flash flooding across coastal Connecticut, New York and New Jersey.
“The National Weather Service said the hardest-hit areas appeared to be northern New Jersey, parts of New York’s Westchester County and a swath of coastal Connecticut along Interstate 95.”
“US ends limits on coal and gas plant emissions, removing key tool to battle climate crisis.
“On the heels of the hottest summer ever recorded in the US, the Trump administration has said it will erase any limits on emissions from coal and gas plants that are dangerously heating up our planet.”
“Kipnuk prepares for strong Bering Sea storm surge, nearly one year since Typhoon Halong remnants washed away homes [Alaska].
“A strong storm moving through the Bering Sea Monday night is expected to bring high surf, winds and rain to communities devastated by former Typhoon Halong nearly one year ago.”
“Pfas companies are launching a “tidal wave” of forever chemicals production to meet demand from the AI industry, a campaign organisation has warned.
“Despite alarm over the chemicals, which have been linked to cancer, a survey of the 10 biggest manufacturers found most had plans to increase production.”
“We should be more scared of climate change destroying humanity than AI.
“With everyone warning of an AI extinction event within a decade, we seem to have forgotten about the climate crisis already here – and its knock-on effects, from financial crises and conflict to new disease outbreaks and other calamities.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/climate-change-ai-destroy-humanity-b3049934.html
I rely on donations and tips from my readers to keep the site running. Every little bit helps. Can you chip in even a dollar? Buy me a coffee or become a Patreon supporter. A huge thank you to those who do subscribe or donate.
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
The FAO food price index hit 133 in August – the highest since it hit 140 to 160 at the start of the Ukraine war, and higher than in 2010/2011 when some people explained the Arab spring on high food prices (though the index is still lower if deflated by CPI). Its hard to see the index going down for some time now though.
Oil price has about a 20% linear impact (i.e. a 10% increase in oil price means a 2% increase in food) but more than that the loss of Ukraine and Russia grain is going to be similar to those at the start of the war and El Nino losses look likely to be substantial – offsetting possible shortages are some good harvests in India, Canada and full storage silos at the start of the season (however if things stay volatile and generally inflationary through to mid 2027 those might all be used up and 2028 would be very bad).
Concerning the El Nino predictions from Hausfather – the non decaying tail end is getting to be just as interesting as the peak. Are we heading for permanent El Nino with variations only between weak and Godzilla plus?
“We should be more scared of climate change destroying humanity than AI.” – I’d agree with that but maybe Trump, who is obviously demented in the worst possible way and completely and evilly psychotic, and the nuclear button might now be the biggest risk of all in the short term. I think there is no doubt that he would choose nuclear oblivion rather than face impeachment or any other humiliation after the coming elections.
I agree with you on all, George. One of the analysts I follow predicts that Trump won’t live until the end of his term. I’m not sure most of us will either.
I have long wondered if nukes would be unleashed before it’s all over (and obviously hastening the process). As I said to a fellow doomer today, it may be time to rewatch Dr. Strangelove!
As Turgedson says – “I don’t think it’s quite fair to condemn the whole program for a single slip up”. Could be said about the Constitution of the US.
An Astonishingly Good Idea – has any group of actors been this good again?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZct-itCwPE
Did you know that Sellars was supposed to also play the bomber pilot but couldn’t keep the four accents in place for long enough. It’s funnier that Pickens plays it straight – there’s a theory he didn’t realise it was a comedy until the end os shooting.
Great clip! Sellers did a fantastic performance.
I did not know that about the fourth part he was potentially going to do. Nor about the Pickens theory. LOL
I love Sellers as a performer. I wasn’t crazy about him effectively disinheriting his kids, but geniuses are often difficult people, I suppose.
Re food prices, the shrinkflation isn’t even subtle anymore at my local Co-op and I’ve noticed they are starting to pull the special offers. The Food and Drink Federation is suggesting that food price inflation will peak at 6.4% in the UK next year. Sounds optimistic to me.
Kids are hit and miss. You gotta have at least 3 to get a good one.
Let’s put them on the chopping block!
https://youtu.be/d5QwVUBCM-Y?is=BcWHspPuIJ_YD2y3
Nice montage, Truth Wizard. 😎
The Rainmaker and the Climate Models
The weather can be a fickle business. In parts of Africa, traditional rainmakers are still paid to make the rain fall – or, when necessary, to keep it away. The latter can be useful when an important public event is taking place.
For David Nabutsilili, things once worked out rather badly. Farmers had paid him to bring rain. It then rained so much that their vegetable gardens were flooded. Unhappy with this excessive performance, the farmers chased their rainmaker into the hills. Nabutsilili fled, fell on a rock and broke his thigh.
On the other side of the world, climate scientists are trying to solve roughly the same problem, although with rather different equipment. Satellites, ocean buoys and supercomputers have replaced the rainmaker.
US climate scientist Zeke Hausfather published the combined forecasts of fourteen climate models for the developing El Niño. They point towards an exceptionally strong event. Sea-surface temperatures in the important Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific are also currently exceptionally high.
The difference is that modern climate scientists surround their forecasts with probabilities, uncertainty ranges and multiple models. Nobody promises that it will rain on Farmer Jones’s field at three o’clock on Tuesday afternoon.
But the similarity may be at least as interesting. As the climate becomes more erratic, the desire to know what will happen grows. For farmers this is hardly an academic question. Too little rain can destroy a harvest, but too much can do exactly the same.
The rainmaker and the supercomputer are therefore trying to answer the same ancient human question: what is the sky going to do? The supercomputer does have one important advantage.If the model gets it wrong, it doesn’t have to run for the hills.
Zip, I guess both stem from the same basic human desire to feel that we have some control over nature.
No rain dancing will be necessary for the greater Horn of Africa towards the end of this year, as El Nino all but guarantees huge deluges there. As if they don’t already have enough on their plates. 😬
“We heard about this [carbon] business and nobody understood what it was,” says Julio Mayo, from the Cabineña nation…”
But don’t you see, the noble savages of the Cabineña nation don’t have to understand any of this. Their spotless psyches need not be corrupted by unpleasant concepts like “business”, “land grab” and “net zero/green transition is imperialism and neocolonialism in the name of saving the planet”.
All they need to understand is that their woke/green/leftist corporate benefactors are extremely self-aware about their problematic position in global capitalism, extremely guilty of their privilege, and are the moral opposites of the evil non-woke corporations that want to kill them. Let them continue to frolic in their rainforest, and be joyfully certain that Yale graduates who want to “change the system from within” are keeping them safe from Yale graduates who vote Republican.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oT3mCybbhf0
What wolves in sheep’s clothing those carbon credit hucksters are, Jupiviv.
That’s a great mash-up. I have a soft spot for Rick Astley; the person more than the music, although I will admit to having this enjoyably cheesy number on a work-out playlist: 😄
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYuUAGXN0KM
(Of special interest to Bob and Survivalist 🙂) Six days ago I bought another 6 gallon bucket of hard red wheat berries which I use to make sourdough bread. The price hadn’t changed, but it usually ships in 1 to 2 days. Today they are shipping orders from 11 days ago. I’m not sure of the reason for the delay but I’m guessing they are extremely busy for obvious reasons.
Cassandra, I don’t think you need to be a doomer anymore to doubt the durability of our living arrangements. You probably recall that the UK government has just officially advised citizens to stock up on food.
Otherworldly headline:
https://www.earth.com/climate/half-the-world-is-seeing-extreme-heat-extend-beyond-summer/
Wouldn’t you have to wait until summer is actually over before you could make such a pronouncement?
Rob, not if you are talking about meteorological summer, which ends on 31st August for the NH. But they’re referencing a study looking back over the past 45 years, so we have to give them a pass on that, too.
Let it flow….no substitute..a new revealing look by we can’t go back by Quark
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/no-podemos-volver-atras?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=6627814&post_id=215655459&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f29a9&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
The problem is that this return to our origins is incompatible with today’s society, both in terms of quality and quantity. And nobody wants to accept the associated economic and technological collapse, much less the decrease in life expectancy, the drastic decline in population, the drop in productivity, and the widespread poverty that fossil fuels almost eradicated (at the cost of other harms, of course).
What I found most illuminating was the exhaustive list he compiled to without question we will continue until we can…..Trump just showed us by his recent executive decree, did he not?
PS..TW nice music video clip….
Vince, that is indeed an impressive list and, as Quark himself says, it doesn’t include the financial system, which looks to me to be the global economic superorganism’s most glaring and immediate vulnerability.
Rachel Carson was an intellectual giant , left off this list. Quite and oversight