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“The fragility of the world’s economic resilience… dangers are building up, notably in the interaction between fiscal and financial fragilities.
“One should add to this the social, financial and other vulnerabilities likely to be created, or worsened, by the triumphant march of artificial intelligence through the economy. It is not hard to imagine shocks to which the public sector’s ability to respond effectively is more limited than people currently take for granted.”
https://www.ft.com/content/7d732c78-8d3d-4e10-a3a1-4e0c79e36d36
“Are we about to see one of the biggest shifts in monetary policy since the financial crisis?
“…For two decades, central banks sought to suppress uncertainty, believing that ever clearer communication made monetary policy more effective. Warsh believes the opposite: that excessive certainty traps policymakers in promises made for a world that no longer exists.”
“In a warning sign, analysis shows publicly traded credit funds are unprofitable.
“The majority of publicly traded Business Development Companies (BDCs) have recently turned unprofitable, driven by rising borrowing costs and falling values of their underlying corporate loans… A significant portion of these funds’ loans are tied to mid-sized software and technology companies.”
“Number of billionaires globally soars by 13% amid AI shares boom.
“Billionaires’ wealth grew by 25% on average in the year ended in April, compared with a 10.8% rise in average personal wealth around the world, the Swiss bank UBS found… James Mazeau, an economist at the bank, said billionaires had benefited from the AI boom in the stock market.”
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/jun/30/number-of-billionaires-world-ai-wealth-ubs
“Chinese Hedge Funds Warn the AI ‘Super Bubble’ Is Ready to Burst.
“Two of China’s best-known hedge fund managers are warning that the artificial intelligence boom in global stock markets has become an unsustainable bubble.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/chinese-hedge-funds-warn-ai-091421732.html
“Tech selloff stirs bubble fears in US stock market.
“Investors have long been skeptical of the astronomical gains in AI and semiconductor stocks, questioning whether Wall Street is inflating another speculative bubble.”
https://www.aol.com/articles/tech-selloff-stirs-bubble-fears-090224000.html
“Anthropic to restore global access to most powerful AI models…
“The government abruptly forced Anthropic to cut off access to its two cutting-edge artificial intelligence models on June 12 after discovering vulnerabilities in the safeguards put in place to prevent misuse of the tool.”
“The Bank of England is considering introducing an AI “kill switch” to stop trading bots from causing a meltdown in financial markets.
“Sarah Breeden, the deputy governor, said officials were running simulations on what would happen if AI traders all tried to execute similar trades at the same time.”
“The next banking crisis may come from cyberattacks, not credit losses: JPMorgan.
“Cybersecurity risk in banks is “currently one of the biggest undiscounted risks not reflected in bank valuations,” JPMorgan has warned, arguing that AI-enabled attacks could trigger a liquidity crisis more dangerous than a traditional credit event.”
“Could Japan be at the epicentre of the next global financial crisis?
“…there remain substantial risks that contagion from a pronounced JGB selloff could quickly spread to US Treasuries or European government bonds, where debt sustainability is not so robust. Or it could spread to the Japanese financial system itself.”
https://portfolio-adviser.com/could-japan-be-at-the-epicentre-of-the-next-global-financial-crisis/
“Japanese Yen sinks to fresh 40-year low vs USD amid persistently wide US-Japan rate gap…
“The USD/JPY pair builds on the previous day’s breakout momentum and continues to scale new multi-decade highs through the Asian session on Wednesday… keeping traders on high alert amid expectations of a possible intervention by Japanese authorities.”
“Korean Won Slides Toward Weakest Since 2009 as Global Funds Sell Stocks.
“South Korea’s won slid toward its weakest level since the global financial crisis, leading a retreat in Asian currencies, as the dollar strengthened and overseas investors sold local equities.”
“Australia’s ‘housing Ponzi’ is ending just as AI risks are building…
“About 60 per cent of the local sharemarket is tied up in bank stocks and resources companies, which have long been seen as the barbells of an Aussie portfolio. But what if both sectors are heading for trouble at the same time?”
“New Zealand economic recovery delayed and inflation to stay above target, IMF says.
“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on June 30, 2026, that New Zealand’s economic recovery has been delayed by a global oil price shock and elevated uncertainty, with inflation expected to remain temporarily above the Reserve Bank’s target…”
“Britain suffers biggest fall in wealth in the rich world…
“Wealth, as measured by the value of assets such as property and stocks, has been rapidly eroded after inflation soared following the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Britain suffered a worse inflation shock than other developed nations as energy costs leapt.”
“Nuclear weapons storage in spotlight as US plans $4bn boost for its UK airbases.
“More than $4bn (£3bn) is to be spent upgrading the US government’s military and spy bases in the UK, according to official documents that shed light on the UK’s apparent role as a secretive site for American nuclear weapons.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jun/30/nuclear-weapons-storage-us-uk-airbases
“Germany woos Trump with plan to make US weapons in Europe.
“Germany is pressing the US to allow more American weapons to be built on German soil, seeking to plug Europe’s military gaps while giving Donald Trump a reason to remain invested in the continent’s defence.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e9b71e3f-8f99-477a-87b3-0985e5bbf081
“Poland halts MiG transfer to Ukraine amid worsening Warsaw-Kyiv ties…
0The failed MiG-for-drones arrangement comes amid a broader deterioration in Polish-Ukrainian relations. While Poland remains one of Kyiv’s key military and political backers, ties have become increasingly strained due to disputes over the legacy of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA).””
https://www.euractiv.com/news/poland-halts-mig-transfer-to-ukraine-amid-worsening-warsaw-kyiv-ties/
“Swedish defence maker Saab signs deal to deliver 16 fighter jets to Kyiv…
“Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, writing on the Telegram messaging app, said the agreement reached with Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson involved the purchase of the 16 aircraft and included technical support.”
“How Russia’s Neighbors Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb…
“Not long ago, the very idea that Lithuania or its neighbors might host nuclear weapons aimed at Russia seemed mad and dangerous. People feared Moscow’s reaction; they feared becoming targets of a nuclear strike; they feared the unforgiving logic of the Cold War itself.”
“Russia suspends border crossings at railway checkpoints with Finland, Latvia, Estonia…
“The Russian Foreign Ministry has been instructed to notify Finland, Latvia and Estonia of the decision, the document said. The government did not specify the reasons for the decision.”
“Russia warns of the repercussions of European policies; Moscow accuses the West of pushing the situation towards further escalation…
“Polyanskiy stated that some European capitals continue to adopt what he termed escalatory positions without fully understanding the potential consequences. He also noted that the continued flow of weapons to Ukraine and the imposition of further sanctions on Moscow are prolonging the crisis…”
“Russia to import gasoline as Ukrainian strikes force Putin to use reserves…
“The Kremlin confirmed Tuesday that Russia is in talks to import gasoline from abroad, an extraordinary step for one of the world’s largest oil exporters, as Ukrainian drone strikes continue to disrupt the country.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-import-gasoline-ukraine-strikes-fuel-shortage/
“Russian Refinery Disruptions Ripple Across Central Asian Fuel Markets…
“Officials have sought to reassure consumers that supplies will be sufficient and that prices will eventually come down once global disruptions stabilize. Daniyar Amangeldiev, the first deputy prime minister of Kyrgyzstan, told reporters that rising fuel prices are unavoidable given the global geopolitical turmoil.”
“Xi highlights CPC’s unshakable commitment to resolving Taiwan question, realizing China’s complete reunification.
“Resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China’s complete reunification is a historic mission and an unshakable commitment for the Communist Party of China (CPC), Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, said on Wednesday.”
“China–Japan relations sail into troubled waters.
“China–Japan relations have entered their most troubled period since normalisation in 1972, driven less by temporary diplomatic friction than by deepening structural rivalry over Taiwan, military buildups, economic security and competing visions of regional order.”
https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/06/30/china-japan-relations-sail-into-troubled-waters/
“What are US and Japanese soldiers doing in the middle of the Australian bush?
“The BBC joined US, Japanese and Australian troops in remote North Queensland, where they trained together in some of Australia’s toughest terrain… Commanders emphasize that building face-to-face tactical relationships in peace prepares them to act seamlessly during a sudden regional crisis.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cyv09p2vy87o
“Chinese vessels shadow US-Philippine naval drills in South China Sea near disputed shoal.
“The People’s Liberation Army said it dispatched vessels and aircraft to the South China Sea in response to a joint US-Philippine maritime drill in the waters near Scarborough Shoal over the weekend.”
“Thailand rejects Cambodia’s unilateral claim over Prasat Khana.
“Thai officials insist the disputed border’s status must be settled jointly through bilateral mechanisms and international law, not by one-sided declarations or map interpretations. Thailand denied Cambodian allegations that its authorities had occupied the area…”
https://www.nationthailand.com/news/general/40068096
“Afghan Taliban launch strikes on border with Pakistan as tensions escalate.
“The strikes come after Pakistan launched its own air strikes on Afghanistan on Sunday, killing 28 civilians, according to the UN. Tensions have reignited in the region after months of relative calm. The two countries had agreed to a ceasefire in October following weeks of deadly clashes.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c621g086ek4o
“Hengaw report on deadly armed clashes in multiple cities [Iran / Kurdistan].
“Multiple armed clashes in recent weeks between fighters of the Eastern Kurdistan Defense Units — the armed wing of the Kurdistan Free Life Party — and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in several cities have left at least seven people dead, including three Iranian military personnel and four YRK guerrillas.”
https://hengaw.net/en/news/2026/06/article-201
“How Three Months of War Changed the Gulf Forever…
“…with their vulnerabilities exposed, the Gulf countries have been forever changed by the war. Many are now intent on boosting their hard power, spending more on military hardware and defense. The new mood is a palpable shift from the grand and optimistic projects that defined the region’s past decade.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/world/middleeast/gulf-changed-forever-iran-war.html
“Iran-US war latest: Vance says US in ‘great position’ even if talks fail in Qatar.
“Tehran has said its negotiators will not sit down for peace talks with the US until all the points in the memorandum of understanding (MoU) have been upheld. Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have arrived in Qatar to meet mediators, but Iran has insisted no direct talks are on the table.”
“US Crude Oil Inventories Keep Falling As Hormuz Flows Slow To Start.
“The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 6.072 million barrels in the week ending June 26. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 765,000 barrels.”
“Israel to postpone withdrawal from 2 pilot areas in southern Lebanon…
“”During discussions within the Israeli army regarding the plan, which Lebanon and Israel agreed upon during weekend talks, it was concluded that the implementation timeline would be delayed beyond the initial estimate,” Israel’s public broadcaster KAN quoted unnamed sources.”
“Israeli troops face resistance from residents in Syrian town.
“Tensions in this part of the country created by a buffer zone occupied by Israeli forces have flared into violence in recent days, leaving residents anxious that more escalation is coming.”
“Yemeni forces seize shipment of drone, boat materials in Bab al-Mandab…
“In a statement on the US social media company X, the Giants Brigades said they intercepted the vessel as it attempted to sail toward Yemen’s western coast in Al Hudaydah province, whose ports are controlled by the Houthi group.”
“The United Nations has said that it was “deeply saddened” by the killing of five humanitarian workers after their convoy was ambushed in South Sudan.
“UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric told a news conference on Tuesday that the five humanitarian workers were riding in a convoy that a local partner operated before it was ambushed on Monday in Duk County, Jonglei State.”
“UN relief chief sounds alarm over escalation in Sudan’s North Kordofan…
“”I am again sounding the alarm on the escalating violence and rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation in Sudan’s North Kordofan region. We cannot allow (North Kordofan capital) El Obeid to become another El Fasher,” said Fletcher in a statement.”
“UN warns Ebola outbreak could push nearly 1M more people into poverty in Congo…
“Mama said the Ebola pandemic in DRC is more than just a local health crisis, underlining that over 90% of the confirmed cases are around Ituri province that is also considered a key hub for cross-border trade with neighboring countries.”
“South Africa deploys police, foreigners brace for violence as anti-immigrant protests begin.
“Shops shuttered, workers stayed home and police fanned out across South Africa on Tuesday as fears mounted that planned anti-immigrant protests would descend into violence. Thousands of foreigners already fled ahead of the unauthorised June 30 “deadline” set by anti-immigrant groups for all migrants to leave the country.”
“Venezuelans scour collapsed buildings by hand while government machinery stands unused…
“Venezuela is home to the world’s largest reported oil reserves, yet in the wake of one of its worst earthquakes in over a century, many of its citizens have been forced to dig their friends and family out of the rubble by hand for want of fuel.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/01/americas/venezuela-earthquake-search-rescue-anger-latam-intl
“Cuba’s foreign minister observes ‘no progress’ in US negotiations.
“Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez has described negotiations with the United States as hitting a wall, with no breakthroughs made towards ending sanctions against the Caribbean island.”
“Grieving relatives still seeking answers as US normalises ‘drug boat’ strikes.
“It has been more than four months since Ricky Joseph left his home for the last time. His partner, Lucille Charles, and their chidren were still asleep at home on the Caribbean island of St Lucia, when Joseph, 35, set out to sea early in the morning on 13 February to fish for tuna, ballyhoo and snapper.”
“El Niño to impact shipping on a global scale…
“Jessica Topal, routing specialist at Ocean intelligence platform Sofar Ocean said: “Each corridor brings a different operational challenge. Panama is the chokepoint most likely to force rerouting at scale, and 2023–24 showed how quickly that can spill out beyond Cristobal and Balboa.””
https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/ship-operations/el-ni-o-to-impact-shipping-on-a-global-scale
“Fears El Nino could trigger further gas and LNG price volatility.
“Energy markets are highly sensitive to this weather shift because it directly alters regional electricity demand, impacts alternative power generation like hydro, and disrupts vital maritime trade routes… This climate wildcard arrives at an incredibly fragile time, with global energy supplies already severely strained…”
“A super El Nino and fertiliser shock – are food markets at risk?
“Inventories of several key crops are tight by historic standards. This reflects previous supply shocks, as well as higher demand. In addition, fertiliser production capacity has been constrained by years of underinvestment, due to volatile energy prices and high investment costs. There are some signs extreme weather is on its way…”
https://www.sjp.co.uk/individuals/news/a-super-el-nino-and-fertiliser-shock-are-food-markets-at-risk
“Climate change is starting to upend the financial system itself.
“Extreme weather could cost some European countries the only growth they have by 2029… While politicians across Europe have been fighting a culture war over air conditioners and the causes of the deadly heat shock, central banks have been taking matters into their own hands.”
“Climate crisis enters heart of global economy…
“…unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced, adaptation will become progressively more expensive, less effective, and in some cases impossible. There are physical limits to how much human bodies, food systems, power grids, and ecosystems can endure.”
https://www.azernews.az/analysis/260392.html
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
The Silent Victims of Extreme Heat
When a heatwave makes the headlines, the focus is usually on record-breaking temperatures, overcrowded emergency rooms and the number of excess deaths among people. Rightly so. But another disaster unfolds at the same time, one that remains largely invisible.
In Brittany, the heart of France’s intensive livestock industry, around 5,000 tonnes of dead poultry and pigs had to be buried during the late June heatwave. Not because farmers wanted to do so, but because the official rendering plants simply could no longer cope with the overwhelming number of carcasses. According to the authorities, mortality rates rose to six or seven times their normal level.
That figure alone – 5,000 tonnes – is almost impossible to comprehend. Depending on the mix of poultry and pigs, it represents hundreds of thousands, and possibly even millions, of animals. The exact number matters less than the conclusion: within just a few days, extreme heat severely disrupted an entire sector of food production.
What is striking is how little attention this receives. We debate air conditioning, heat action plans and the health of vulnerable people, but far less is said about what repeated heatwaves mean for a farming system in which hundreds of thousands of animals are housed in highly concentrated facilities. Modern barns are equipped with ventilation and cooling systems, but even these have their limits when outside temperatures remain above 40 degrees Celsius for several consecutive days.
The issue goes beyond animal welfare alone. Every chicken or pig that dies represents economic losses, additional disposal problems, potential public health concerns and further pressure on the food supply chain. The fact that the French authorities temporarily authorised farmers to bury their own animals illustrates just how exceptional the situation had become.
And summer has only just begun.
Perhaps that is the most important message. The June heatwave did not occur at the end of a long summer, but at its very beginning. Meteorologists are already forecasting another period of intense heat. The question is therefore not only how high temperatures will climb, but also how often our agriculture, our ecosystems and our infrastructure will be able to withstand successive waves of extreme heat.
The human toll of heatwaves appears in public health statistics. The toll among animals is largely hidden from view. Perhaps it is time these silent victims also became part of the public conversation.
https://reporterre.net/Canicule-les-eleveurs-bretons-forces-d-enfouir-des-tonnes-de-cadavres-d-animaux
Thanks Zip for bringing this up. Very sad. Some sort of reporting though. Not that it is of any help. I doubt there will be any for the wildlife lost.
Definitely not
30 years of COP, yet the subject of its glaring danger to livestock has never been breached.
If we would only think of the impact our actions have on others instead of thinking solely about maintaining our mindlessly destructive “lifestyle”, perhaps we could plot a path forward. We cannot survive without plants and animals; save them and we save ourselves: give to get; if caring for something other than yourself weren’t something to be mocked and derided by the selfsame religions that claim god is love, (as long as it’s self-love) maybe putting the design, robofacture and sale of WMD wouldn’t be front and center of our capitalist profit machine, entire countries transforming themselves into Wehrmachts.
Capitalism’s obsession with individuality enforces narcissistic behavior in everyone, we all come into this world with our own horn, if we don’t blow it, no one else will, but the ensuing cacophony deafens us all to the cries of helplessness from those we harm in our mad rush for success, which has now come to mean basic survival.
If 30 years of COPS can occur without even the slightest effort to formulate a strategy to mitigate against its worst effects on the creatures we need for our own survival doesn’t show its feckless, showboating nature, we are surely blind.
The moral culpability of humans in bringing about our predicament is difficult to quantify but clearly there is some. Animals, on the other hand, are absolute innocents caught up in mayhem not of their making; it is painful to see them suffer.
Workarounds for intensive livestock farming in extreme heat are few:
“Climate-Proof livestock? Heat-resistant Israeli goats attract growing interest from Europe.
“Goats bred in Israel’s Arava desert are attracting growing European interest as researchers use genetic selection and data-driven breeding to develop heat-resistant dairy goats that can produce milk in extreme climate conditions.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/environment/article/sjbcw5wmme
“There are physical limits to how much human bodies, food systems, power grids, and ecosystems can endure.”
And socially determined psychological limits that prevent us from seriously thinking about, let alone preparing for, those physical limits until they have already manifested… probably 10 years from now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_PnuXelvWA
I love those ridiculous 2000’s comedies – Zoolander, Dodgeball, Anchorman, Starsky & Hutch etc. They don’t seem to make them like that anymore .
I think Roger runs over some psychology, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wia67Vbwfmk
At times I felt I could do with a Google translate Hallam to English button.
Thanks, Mad Hatter. Roger is apparently a bit of an overthinker, but some of what he says is interesting (full disclosure – I’ve only listened to snippets).
His comments about transcendence made me think of this clip, which made quite an impression on me many years ago, just because Adyashanti is so candid about where we are headed. I wasn’t used to that at the time:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4XxMVH9hmk
ALERT .
“The delay in sowing has struck a variety of crops across the Kharif regions from Maharashtra to Punjab. Paddy has declined 25%, pulses are down 30% and oilseeds by 53%, as per a report in the Economic Times. Millet, a cereal that requires less water than most grains, has also been planted at 11% below the usual levels at this time of year .
Among pulses, tur (arhar) sowing stood at 3.56 lakh hectares against 8.45 lakh hectares. The sowing of soybean, an oilseed, has also remained at 6.92 lakh hectares, down from 19.97 lakh hectares a year earlier. Only sugarcane, jute and mesta acreage are slightly higher compared to the last season, the HBL reports.
Read the full report .
https://thewire.in/agriculture/kharif-sowing-down-23-govt-urges-farmers-to-delay-planting
Thanks, Ravi.
Looks like July will bring excess heat and a further rain deficit:
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/below-normal-monsoon-likely-in-july-too-imd/articleshow/132101346.cms
Is a little more difficult to track Greenland surface melt these days. I’ll be watching the jet stream for high pressure ridge setting up over Greenland. Greenland summit temp is also perhaps a reasonable data point.
Will be interesting to see once an Omega Block settles over Greenland.
Depending on where it sits, an Omega Block over Greenland could mean some dry, sunny but pleasantly cool summer weather for us here on Islay, as gloomy Atlantic lows (one is sitting right over us now) are diverted north.
We must gather such crumbs of comfort as we can. 😅
Record-breaking Greenland ice sheet melt events under recent and future climate
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-69543-5
Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026-2035
https://wmo.int/resources/publication-series/wmo-global-annual-decadal-climate-update/global-annual-decadal-climate-update-2026-2035
“It is very likely (91% chance) that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. This level was also temporarily exceeded in 2024.”
Dontcha just love that “temporarily”?
Russian sulfur will now be out of the market till December 2026. The ban was expiring on 30th June’26 but it got extended. No relief in sulfur pricing for this year at least.
Jun 30
Iranian sulfur could have returned to the global market if sanctions on Iranian crude had been lifted. That was perhaps the only credible catalyst capable of breaking the ongoing sulfur super cycle. Without a meaningful increase in Iranian sulfur exports, the market is likely to remain structurally tight, allowing the super cycle to extend well into next year.
Ajay Joshi chemicals
Didn’t see this anywhere. I guess few of us pay attention to Fox. Phosphates out of Morroco.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-declares-food-supply-emergency-suspends-tariffs-key-fertilizer-imports