Dear readers, supporters and friends, Panopticon is taking his family on a much needed holiday, which may well be his last, and will be back on Thursday April 16th. Kali is posting in his absence.
“Strongest El Niño in a century? What this rare phenomenon could bring…
“The chances for a planet-warming super El Niño this year are rising, according to an updated model forecast issued Sunday… “Real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years,” wrote Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the State University of New York at Albany.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/04/06/super-el-nino-chances-increasing-risks/
“Super El Niño events drive climate regime shifts with enhanced risks under global warming…
“The occurrence probability of agricultural droughts may increase nonlinearly as the climate warms, with super El Niño events acting as powerful amplifiers of these nonlinearities.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-66143-7
“I expect the 2026 temperature anomaly distribution to creep past 2°C by the end of the year.
“Not looking forward to 2027, when Zeke Hausfather might have to extend his y-axis.”
[Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/2041244900046336100
“‘Truly unprecedented’: Warning as grass fires soar to 3,474 in Wales last year.
“”…the scale of last year’s incidents was truly unprecedented. The surge in grass fires we saw in 2025 shows just how urgently we all need to act to protect our countryside and keep our communities safe.””
“EXTRAORDINARY EVENT 33c [91.4fF] IN FRANCE.
“32.6C Soorts-Hossegor: 31.9 Belin Beiliet April record; 31.5 Trois Villes etc 27 STATIONS >30c / 86F on 6th APRIL. INSANE HEAT IN SPAIN
TONS OF APRIL RECORDS PULVERIZED: 32.1 Santander AP, 30.5 San Sebastian AP, 29.8 Gijon etc.
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2041179381314560253
“EU aid for farmers hit by ‘extreme weather’.
“Throughout 2025, farmers in Bulgaria, Estonia and Hungary witnessed significant damages and suffered economic losses due to adverse climatic events and natural disasters.”
https://www.eureporter.co/environment/2026/04/06/eu-aid-for-farmers-hit-by-extreme-weather/
“Flood death toll in Angola rises to 29.
“”The floods affected a total of 33,355 people in the two provinces, flooded 6,752 homes and caused 201 house collapses in Benguela,” the service said.”
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/flood-death-toll-in-angola-rises-to-29/3895037
“Heavy rains and rising floods: Climate experts explain the sudden surge [Kenya]…
“Climate scientist Clifford Omondi explains that a steady warming of the Indian Ocean is directly shaping the weather pattern being experienced in Kenya and the wider East African region.”
“Kazakhstan sets up emergency headquarters after Shoptikol dam breach.
“An operational headquarters has been established at the site of the Shoptikol dam breach in the Akmola region, Qazinform News Agency reports.”
“Daghestan floods kill at least 4 as fears of a dam overflow trigger evacuations.
At least four people have died in renewed flooding in Daghestan over the weekend, as heavy rains, the possible overflow of a dam, and a building collapse in Makhachkala have deepened a regional emergency already affecting thousands of households.”
“Death toll from extreme weather in Afghanistan increases to 110…
“Storms and heavy rainfall began across Afghanistan about 12 days ago, affecting most of the country’s 34 provinces. Over the past 24 hours alone, 11 people have died and six have been injured, the Disaster Management Authority said.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/afghanistan-kabul-jalalabad-herat-pakistani-b2952487.html
“Pakistan records unusually high March temperatures.
“Pakistan saw several unusual weather extremes in March, including its second-highest nighttime minimum temperature on record, according to the PMD.”
https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/04/06/pakistan-records-unusually-high-march-temperatures
“Nepal turns to “nature-based solutions” as wildfire crisis hits all-time high.
“Facing a record-breaking surge in forest fires, Nepal is shifting its strategy toward locally led “nature-based solutions” to combat a crisis that has now become a year-round threat.”
https://en.nepalkhabar.com/news/detail/17867/
“Second volunteer dies in a week while fighting forest fires [Thailand].
“A volunteer firefighter has been found dead near his cashew plantation, next to a community forest in Wang Chin district of the northern province of Phrae, after he was reported missing…”
https://world.thaipbs.or.th/detail/second-volunteer-dies-in-a-week-while-fighting-forest-fires/60912
“Cloud seeding launched as heatwave grips Malaysia, temperatures hit 40°C [104F]…
“The effort will focus on major dams in Perak, Kedah, Perlis and Johor, with the aim of sustaining water supply for both domestic use and agriculture amid the ongoing hot spell.”
https://malaysia.news.yahoo.com/minister-cloud-seeding-launched-heatwave-080256167.html
“Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila on track to hit far north Queensland three weeks after Narelle tore through…
“The storm had spent recent days travelling in circles between Papua new Guinea and Solomon Islands, but was expected to turn in a south-westerly direction midweek and head towards the Queensland coast.”
“Record high ocean temperatures off southern California raise fears of prolonged marine heatwave…
“Prolonged ocean heat has a devastating impact on phytoplankton and can cause harmful algal blooms. Those changes can wreak havoc on many forms of marine life, from sea lions and dolphins, to shore birds and halibut.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/04/high-ocean-temperatures-california-marine-heatwave
“A biblical megaflood could hit the US at any moment. And that’s only the beginning…
“Scientists and officials are now preparing for not one threatening storm, but a 30-day maelstrom of megastorms unlike anything seen in the state for almost 200 years. Such a scenario was always possible, but rising global temperatures are making it more likely – and far more destructive.”
https://www.sciencefocus.com/planet-earth/megaflood-arkstorm-california
“Why our annual April showers are becoming April storms.
“Heavier rain events are becoming more frequent and intense across most of the United States—and experts say these regions will be hit the hardest.”
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/april-showers-rain-global-warming
“How Forests Start to Fail, One Leaf at a Time…
“Recent hot and dry summers have damaged forests on a scale visible from space. Leaves dried, scorched, faded and even died weeks or months ahead of schedule, and in a new study published Monday, scientists identified climate thresholds beyond which leaves are irreversibly damaged.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06042026/europe-forests-heat-emissions-study/
“Satellite mirror plans could disrupt sleep and ecosystems worldwide, scientists say.
“Proposals to deploy reflective mirrors and up to 1m more satellites in low Earth orbit could have far-reaching consequences for human health and ecosystems, leading sleep and circadian rhythm researchers have said.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Thursday with an “Economic” thread.
>>> A biblical megaflood could hit the US at any moment.
>>> Record high ocean temperatures off southern California
Thanks Kali, two interesting California articles today. Despite the title, the first article is mainly about ARkStorms (Atmospheric River 1,000-year Storms) in California. Add that to record high ocean temperatures off southern California and we have another huge mess in the works. Meh…
Thanks for keeping the lights on Kali. You’re almost as good as Pan (just kidding)! The part about Pan’s vacation being his last is a reference to the imminence of collapse, I presume?
Yes, Kali it must be “no fun” to assemble these and my thanks for doing so.
Hard to determine which is worse in regard to our own demise. Unfortunately, for some like the volunteer fire fighter in Thailand, the tipping point has already occurred and rest his soul. Hard to keep focused nowadays with all coming at you, it’s really a juggling act.
My wishes to Pan for a nice family holiday. Hopefully, the self regulating system, as Gail likes to call it, will allow us all a bit more time to prepare. Not that I hadn’t been in the sphere of all this stuff for most of my life. Thank God, I had a lot of good folks around me to help.
That is my take, Jupiviv. It doesn’t seem like he goes on vacation very often, so that combined with events of the past month…yeah. 🤷🏻♀️
Dublin? Paris? Grand Canaria? Venice? Trier? Thetford? Harpers Ferry?
If you’re asking where Panopticon went on vacation, I think they went to Tehran to see for themselves the impact of the Empire’s illegal war of aggression, as well as enjoy whatever is still left of the amazing Islamic art and architecture there. Just guessing.
Last year oil and gas discoveries were just over 5 billion equivalent barrels with 26% success rate and continued a string years of falling success. This year looks like more of the same. Westwood highlighted 13 high impact wells this tear. Of those so far drilled four have been dry or non-commercial and one, in Vietnam, looks to have around 300 million barrels oil. Those yet to be drilled are about half oil, half gas.
Because of the war, are we effectively “post peak”? Has the all-time peak been decapitated?
If not then I don’t know where the increased production would come from. There are some large FPSOs still due in Brazil and Guyana, but recent additions there are now coming off plateau, so net increases are falling, there are few projects awaiting FID and the South America exploration focus has moved to Peru and Suriname. The other basins that had, until this year, been providing growth, in Norway, Kazakhstan, Bakken, Eagleford and China, have definitely moved to declines (and they may be quite rapid), Permian and Canada might be able to hold a plateau but I think slow decline is more likely. Russia was likely to start declining even without the war but now it looks like it will need to shut in for some time because of export limits. Saudi, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar will be concentrating on recovering lost production ahead of new additions (even assuming the ceasefire holds – as far as I can tell any involvement of Trump is entirely antithetical to any realistic expectation of a sustained cessation of hostilities). Maybe Venezuela and Iran can increase production without sanctions, but I dan’t think it will be huge amounts. However one thing is clear, countries and company’s will always accelerate production if they can at the expense of steeper decline later, because of the time cost of money and to support share prices (and CEO bonuses), so never say never.
Good question, Mike, and good to get George’s thoughts!
Here is the full April showers article, if anyone is interested:
https://archive.vn/HyAKW
I was wondering what they would say about my region in Western North Carolina. Nothing in particular. We are in a drought and could really use some April rainstorms!
As for those reflective mirror satellites, before I read the article I thought it must be about reducing climate heating (which would be crazy enough) but no! HUMANS ARE SO INSANE! SOMETHING PLEASE STOP THEM!!
Oh phew, consequences of their (our) own folly WILL stop them.
Thanks Kali for ‘keeping up appearrences 🙂 Yeah perhaps Panopticon is right about his ‘last holiday’ but perhaps we can find others ways of ‘surviving’ just around the corner….well to cheer you up …. some thougths about depletion and wars
The acceleration of depletion – war, shutdowns and the ELM
Wars are often seen as temporary supply disruptions. What is less visible is that they deepen the underlying dynamics of depletion. In Russia and the Middle East, what is unfolding is not a sudden collapse, but an acceleration of a process already underway.
New oil and gas discoveries continue to lag structurally. Annual finds are declining, success rates are falling, and an increasing share of projects turns out to be economically marginal. At the same time, the natural depletion of existing fields continues. That gap was already barely being filled; war widens it.
This leads to a persistent misunderstanding. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of export hubs in the Baltic and the Black Sea are often treated as logistical problems that can be quickly resolved. In reality, they represent a much larger shock: an effective contraction of export flows that in some cases reaches 40 to 50 percent.
That decline does not remain confined to transport. When exports stall, upstream operations are hit. Wells are shut in, installations operate below minimum capacity, and maintenance is deferred. This has direct consequences for reservoir behavior: pressure declines, water and gas intrusion increase, and the risk of permanent production loss grows.
Here, war directly intersects with the Export Land Model. This model shows that exports decline faster than production, as domestic consumption tends to remain relatively stable. When export channels suddenly disappear, this dynamic accelerates sharply. Production is no longer constrained by demand alone, but by the loss of outlets and infrastructure.
The result is that temporary shutdowns turn into structural damage. Restarting proves technically and economically more complex than often assumed. Fields that fall out of balance rarely return to their previous production levels.
In this light, the question of “peak oil” shifts. It is no longer about a single moment, but about the manner in which the peak is eroded. Not simply by a lack of resources, but by a system increasingly unable to mobilize what remains.
War acts as an accelerator. Not a rupture, but a force that exposes and deepens existing weaknesses. What emerges is not a sudden end, but a gradual and largely irreversible decline in exports, capacity, and systemic coherence.
“Irreversible decline”? Sounds about right. Fun times, boys and girls!
This may sound bonkers but looking at a couple of Trump interviews/pronouncements I got the impression he might think Iran has accepted the US 15 point plan instead of the US accepting Iran’s 10 point plan, or maybe not so bonkers as it’s Trump with advanced frontotemporal dementia..