Huge thanks to my sponsor for March, the splendid Professor Pongoo.
“Your ‘water-cooler fun fact’ for today:
“The 3-year running average for the global surface temperature anomaly is currently sitting at a record 1.53°C above the pre-industrial baseline.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2038606206386991594
“Thawing permafrost becomes 25 to 100 times more permeable, experiments find.
“Experiments by University of Leeds researchers, published in Earth’s Future, have shown that thawing of permafrost makes it between 25 and 100 times more permeable, allowing more climate change forcing gases to escape.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-03-permafrost-permeable.html
“EXTRAORDINARY WARMTH IN RUSSIA – hundreds of March records smashed again (see a small list of the most important via link).
“Much hotter tomorrow with thousands of records more from Russia to Japan. Absolutely crazy.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2038671228509331570
“Russia’s North Caucasus hit by massive flooding, thousands evacuated.
“Authorities declared a state of emergency in Dagestan after torrential rainfall flooded streets in the regional capital Makhachkala, damaging homes, vehicles and infrastructure. Neighbouring Chechnya has also been affected, with hundreds of homes flooded.”
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/russia-north-caucasus-hit-massive-100502027.html
“‘A national scandal’: trawlers scour seabeds of supposedly protected UK waters.
“Almost 40% of England’s seas are designated as marine protected areas… And yet in the four years to 2024, trawlers using vast nets, including those that scour the seabed, caught more than 1.3m tonnes of fish within them, according to official figures that campaigners say show they are “little more than lines on a map”.”
“Greek authorities have warned of a severe weather event which is expected to sweep over the country late Tuesday and peak on Wednesday, bringing thunderstorms, gusty winds, and possibly hail.
“The weather is driven by a double cyclogenesis in the Mediterranean associated with heavy precipitation that has already brought storms in parts of western Europe.”
https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1299688/greece-braces-for-thunderstorms-from-storm-erminio/
“Huge Haboob [1500 km; nearly 1000 miles long] Sweeps Across North Africa.
“A huge dust storm swept through large swathes of north Africa on Monday, March 30, satellite footage shows. Imagery released by the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere shows the haboob making its way across multiple countries including Algeria, Mauritania and Morocco.”
“SAHEL HEAT WAVE:
“While The Mediterranean region is with an unseasonal wintry cold spell, the Sahel has been boiling for weeks. Day and night: the Minimum today at Kenieba, MALI was 33.1C [91.6F] – one of the hottest nights ever recorded worldwide in March.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2038597484138971591
“Death toll from floods hits 110 in Kenya.
“The Ministry of Interior and National Administration said that more than 30 counties have experienced flooding and other hazards associated with heavy rains, leaving communities in distress and critical infrastructure severely affected.”
“20 people killed, several missing in flooding in western Yemen…
“A preliminary government report confirmed that the victims included women and children, highlighting the humanitarian toll of the disaster. Authorities also said that nine people remain missing in Mocha, a coastal city within Taiz province.”
“HISTORIC HEAT IN SAUDI ARABIA – MINIMUM 29.0c [84.2F] Gizan is HOTTEST MARCH NIGHT EVER RECORDED IN SAUDI ARABIA.
“Every single Asian country has been smashing records from Saudi Arabia to Japan.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2037938124073087165
“In an awe-inspiring scene beyond description, the Qaw’ah depression in Mahoot Governorate, Oman has transformed into a vast lake after the accumulation of wadi waters, in a vista stretching as far as the eye can see.”
[Arab Storms]
https://x.com/Arab_Storms/status/2038560886064054546
“EXTRAORDINARY SUMMER HEAT IN CENTRAL ASIA – hundreds of records smashed by as much as 10C margins, locally above those of April.
“MINIMUMS up to 22C [71.6F] in UZBEKISTAN at 500m asl; MINIMUMS 17C in Northern Kazakhstan; an absolute insanity. Among the records the capitals Tashkent, Dushanbe.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2037964124983054707
“Central Asia Faces Looming Water Crisis as Glaciers Rapidly Disappear.
“Central Asia could be heading toward a severe water shortage as glaciers across the region continue to shrink at an alarming pace, raising concerns over long-term water security.”
“Heavy rain, floods kill at least 45 people in Afghanistan, Pakistan…
“Most of the deaths in Afghanistan were reported in central and eastern provinces, including Parwan, Maidan Wardak, Daikundi and Logar, according to ANDMA. The authority added in a statement that weather conditions remained “unstable” in parts of the country…”
“Heatwaves Grip Central and Peninsular India, Temperature Exceeds 40 in Chhattisgarh.”
[“Extremely hot night in Southern India, one of the hottest nights ever recorded in March in India. In particular, the Minimum of 29.4C [84.9F] at Agathi is a new record for March and it’s one of the highest Minimum ever recorded in the whole Asia in March” – Extreme Temps].
“Sri Lanka sweats in scorching heat, but reasons ‘unlikely due to El Niño’…
“Despite heat advisories, individuals like Marimuththu Maheshwaran, a fruit vendor at the Pettah market, have no option but to continue to work outdoors. “The authorities will ask us to stay indoors, but we have to do our business as well,” Maheshwaran tells Mongabay.”
“Hailstorms batter northern districts, destroy crops in over 100 villages. [Bangladesh].
“Three consecutive days of storms and hailstorms have caused widespread devastation across Lalmonirhat, Kurigram and Rangpur, damaging crops and homes in at least 110 villages across 10 upazilas and leaving thousands of farmers in distress.”
“Today, Chengmai reached 38.5C – the highest temperature in China this year, while AWS approached 40C!
“Furthermore, Suixi in Guangdong and Ando in Tibet broke their March warmest Tmin records! Tomorrow, Hainan’s high temperature is expected to approach 40C!” [Jim Yang]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/2038624381338079313
“Powerful rainstorm, hailstorm lash Guangdong, Guangxi [southern China], triggering emergency responses.
“Following the disasters, emergency management, public security, meteorological, and firefighting departments across the affected regions immediately activated emergency responses and launched rescue operations.”
https://www.bastillepost.com/global/article/5731784-powerful-rainstorm-hailstorm-lash-guangdong-guangxi-triggering-emergency-responses
“RECORD WARMTH IN JAPAN. Another record day in Japan from North to South. 10 stations had their warmest March day in history…
“NORTH KOREA had its March warmest night in history is several stations, except Pyongyang which was broken last year.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2038816393496584489
“Hailstorms kill four in northern Vietnam amid seasonal shift.
“Violent weather during the transition from spring to summer has left fatalities and widespread damage… Severe storms accompanied by hail, strong winds and lightning swept across northern Vietnam between March 29 and 30, leaving four people dead and causing widespread damage.”
https://vietnamnet.vn/en/hailstorms-kill-four-in-northern-vietnam-amid-seasonal-shift-2501930.html
“After hail chaos in Vientiane: More storms could be on the way…
“The warning comes after a recent hailstorm hit the Sikhottabong district in Vientiane. a total of 17 villages were affected, with more than 5,000 homes damaged. Schools, temples and other buildings were also hit, and 53 vehicles were damaged. “
https://scandasia.com/after-hail-chaos-in-vientiane-more-storms-could-be-on-the-way/
“Wildfires rage across Chiang Mai mountain areas [Thailand].
“Wildfires have been reported across multiple mountain areas of Chiang Mai, with blazes likened to “volcanoes erupting” on mountain ridges, as communities across the province grapple with heavy smoke and worsening air quality.”
https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/2026/03/31/wildfires-rage-across-chiang-mai-mountain-areas/
“Indonesian forest loss surges by 66% in 2025, driven by Prabowo’s self-sufficiency drive: Report.
“Forest loss in Indonesia surged by 66 per cent in 2025, hitting its highest rate in eight years as a result of weak environmental protections and an ambitious food and energy self-sufficiency drive, an environmental group said on March 31.”
“Tornado Damages 100 Homes [Java].
“A tornado was caught on video as it touched down in Indonesia’s West Java Province. You can see the twister touch down in rice fields before it ripped through multiple villages, destroying homes… rice barns, mosques, village offices, and village health centers in Purwadadi District were also damaged.”
https://weather.com/news/trending/video/indonesia-west-java-tornado-destroys-homes
“Toxic Ocean Crisis in Papua New Guinea Sparks Mass Marine Die-Off and Public Health Emergency…
“…for many in New Ireland, being told to avoid fish from the ocean comes with profound consequences. “Our life is centered around the ocean. That’s our source of income, source of protein,” Marigu said.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/29032026/papua-new-guinea-mass-marine-die-off-public-health/
“Dramatic red skies in Australia due to cyclone and soil drought.
“Almost surreal images showing bright red and orange skies are coming out of Australia… This red Australian sky is also one of the effects of soil drought, something that could occur more often because of climate change.”
https://www.france24.com/en/australian-skies-turned-red-due-to-cyclone-and-soil-drought
“Epic reversal of winds in the equatorial Pacific immediately east of the 180° line.
“This condition, which would extend until completing the second half of April, is and will continue producing a massive warm Kelvin Wave that will arrive at the South American coastal edge toward the end of autumn. It’s the stuff of legends. It could compromise the winter season on the Peruvian coast. By warming it.” [Abraham Levy]
https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2038246897018683657
“As traditional forest governance erodes in Peru, ‘ghost logging permits’ fill the vacuum.
“In the Peruvian Amazon, prosecutors and documents show how “ghost paper forests” have allowed illegal logging to penetrate Indigenous governance, with forest permits rented or sold by community leaders and used to launder timber cut in unapproved or protected areas, turning legal paperwork into a shadow supply chain.”
“Three new rain frogs discovered in Ecuador already face immediate extinction risk…
“Unlike pond-breeding frogs, these are direct-developing – their eggs hatch as froglets because the tadpole stage finishes inside the egg. That life cycle frees them from streams for breeding and helps lineages settle into cool plants and forest floor niches. It also means a tiny patch of habitat can hold a species found nowhere else.”
“Chopping down areas of tropical rainforest is causing rising temperatures linked to thousands of deaths…
“A single large tropical tree provides as much cooling as several air conditioners running continuously. Across the billions of trees in the Amazon or Congo, this “sweating” cools entire regions.”
“INCOMING HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN SOUTH AMERICA:
“Far from entering into a proper autumn, the heat in South America is increasing with a new heat wave expected in few days. Dozens of records of April high temperatures can fall in Chile, Bolivia ,Argentina, Paraguay, Brazil and Uruguay.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2038107584310444227
“This is getting ridiculous: another avalanche of records broken in MEXICO. March Highest Minimums in history:
“24.0 [75.2F] Hermosillo, 23.5 Mazatlan, 23.3 Puerto Penasco, 22.3 Loreto, 21.6 Mexicali. Every day of this month Mexico has broken Monthly heat records.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2038639339320827973
“As a mind-boggling heat wave begins to wrap up, we look at some initial numbers [US].
“Over 1,500 new monthly records for March and over 500 tied monthly records with virtually no modern equivalent event in any month… The geographic scope, intensity, and duration of this event has been absolutely insane. That’s honestly the only word you can use to describe it, insane.”
https://theeyewall.substack.com/p/as-a-mind-boggling-heat-wave-begins
“Another day, another record high in Boulder. Sunday reached 82° and was our 10th record high set in the last 12 days.
More historical context: 9 of the warmest 11 March days recorded since 1893 have occurred in the last two weeks.” [BoulderCAST Weather]
https://x.com/BoulderCAST/status/2038643358571389022
“Denver’s drought is so bad the city is asking restaurants to only serve water on request.
“Denver residents are facing a year of mandatory water restrictions as officials move to protect dwindling water supplies following the warmest winter in Colorado’s history.”
“Could nuclear power help pump water into the Colorado River?
“That’s the pitch from Ben Burr, president of the Idaho-based Blue Ribbon Commission, who is shopping a proposal to build new desalination plants on California’s coast. The plants would convert Pacific Ocean seawater into freshwater and pump it hundreds of miles inland, adding new water to a system that has spent decades losing it.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/could-nuclear-power-help-pump-220804247.html
“It’s March 30 and a wildfire is burning on Donner Lake Road near I-80. [Sierra Nevada Mountains, California]
“Donner Summit’s snowpack also fully melted today. Just insane.”
[Colin McCarthy]
https://x.com/US_Stormwatch/status/2038747990693945456
“In record heat, US ski resorts bulldoze snow, skiers wear bikinis.
“In March 2026, record-breaking heat and historic snow droughts across the Western United States forced many ski resorts into “desperate measures,” including bulldozing snow from shaded mountain areas onto thin runs to remain operational.”
“Firefighters battle new wildfires as red flag warnings continue for most of Nebraska.
“The Morrill Fire, which is the largest in the state’s history and burned 642,029 acres in Morrill, Garden, Grant, Arthur and Keith counties, is considered 100% contained, as are the other three fires in Nebraska that started at around the same time. But as of Monday morning, three other fires were uncontained in the state.”
“US’ most hazardous waste sites are vulnerable to flooding and fires – EPA watchdog group finds.
“Nearly 100 of America’s most hazardous toxic waste sites are situated in areas highly susceptible to flooding and wildfires, posing a significant public health threat to millions of nearby residents, a new report from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s internal watchdog reveals.”
“These Scientists Tested How Climate Change Affects Wild Meadows—With Alarming Results.
“These meadows will disappear in the coming decades if warming reaches 2C above preindustrial levels, according to the resulting article published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The findings are alarming, not just for Colorado, but for mountains across the planet as “shrubification” takes over.”
“Global warming already impacts daily lives around the globe, study finds.
“As a grueling March heat wave batters the U.S. West with dangerous temperatures, and the world girds itself for what could be another sizzling record-smashing Super El Niño, a team of researchers has published a study looking at how global warming is already impairing people’s regular daily activities.”
“The next two years will make the 2023-2024 El Niño look like a walk in the park.
“We’ll get a first glance into how resilient humanity is to a post ΔT +1.5°C world.”
[Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/2038633466275713227
I rely on donations and tips from my readers to keep the site running. Every little bit helps. Can you chip in even a dollar? Buy me a coffee or become a Patreon supporter. A huge thank you to those who do subscribe or donate.
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
If electrification had been recognized for what it actually was, i.e an attempt to streamline the use of fossil fuels rather than replace them, and that policy implemented honestly, this oil shock might have not been as painful as it is going to be in the coming weeks/months/years… and let’s face it, it’s gonna be years. Oh well.
Instead they created a false binary, putting the “green transition” label on electrification and opposing it to the evil fossil fuel corps (the same ones that receive subsidies from the government regardless of which party is in or out). False binaries are what you resort to when you’re unwilling or unable to settle for ordinary hidebound conformity. You can have your normalcy and eat your easy solution to the disintegration of that normalcy at the same time. After all, you’re only ever arguing with yourself – what you believe, versus a cartoonishly wrong criticism of that belief that you’ve invented. Everything works great until the point where reality forces you to align your words with your actions, and you come to the sudden horrific realization you’re bereft of both.
So very well said, jupiviv. Thanks. “Electrify everything” requires ignoring where the energy and materials to produce these “solutions” comes from, and where the energy to power and charge them comes from.
*clap clap clap*
I’ve written a bit about this and I plan to address it again soon:
https://3quarksdaily.com/3quarksdaily/2024/10/five-words-i-hate.html
A very enjoyable read. For no particular reason it made me think of wasps. They get a bad press but are pretty fantastic: common ancestors to ants and bees, taught us to make paper, solitary hunters are the most specific pesticides in existence, pollinators for orchids and figs, pollinators of last resort for many plants when flies and bees have a bad year, soil nutritionalists in many cases as their nests are full of minerals (I think they are eaten in some places by pregnant women). Are they a sustainable, natural, organic, green resource? That’s the way many may think, or more likely as pests and nothing more, but they are just wasps doing waspy things.
Thanks for sharing Mike.
Mike, your splendid article made me think of that passage in “Moab is My Washpot” by Stephen Fry where he challenges the common arguments against homosexuality:
“And please, whatever you do, don’t tell us that what we do is unnatural. For one thing if what you mean by that is that animals don’t do it, than you are quite simply in factual error.
“There are plenty of activities or qualities we could list that are most certainly unnatural if you are so mad as to think that humans are not part of nature, or so dull-witted as to believe that “natural” means “all natures except human nature”: mercy, for example, is unnatural, an altruistic, non-selfish care and love for other species is unnatural; charity is unnatural, justice is unnatural, virtue is unnatural, indeed – and this is surely the point – the idea of virtue is unnatural, within such a foolish, useless meaning of the word “natural”.”
Among mammals alone there are over 250 species documented engaged in some form of same-sex behavior. So the whole question a brother homosexuality is natural is moot.
“the whole question whether homosexuality is natural”
Stupid dictation
Jupiviv, my preference, given that the wheels are going to come off imminently anyway, is that recent UK governments had never deluded themselves they could help solve climate change, and had instead maintained a pragmatic approach to energy with a view to keeping the lights on for as long as possible.
We’re going to rue the billions we blew on green hydrogen.
It’s a ‘coulda, shoulda, woulda’ situation, though, because I doubt parties totally ignoring the climate lobby would have been electable in the UK.
Quark’s latest is titled “So, what might happen in the Iran-Contra war?”
Google translated, no images:
As with every day, new information emerges regarding the Iran conflict. It appears that, according to comments Trump made to his advisors, as reported by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) , he is considering abandoning operations, even leaving the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control.
“ President Trump told his advisers he is prepared to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, government officials said, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and postponing a complex operation to reopen it.”
In recent days, Trump and his advisors assessed that a mission to open the strait would prolong the conflict beyond its anticipated four-to-six-week timeframe. He decided that the United States must achieve its primary objectives: weakening the Iranian navy and missile arsenal, reducing current hostilities, and diplomatically pressuring Tehran to resume free trade. Should this fail, Washington would pressure its allies in Europe and the Gulf to lead the way in reopening the strait, officials reported .
This “information” has significantly reduced oil prices and generated an upward trend in the stock market, as is usually the case with everything related to Trump’s statements or comments.
But as I’ve mentioned a few times, what the American president says is one thing, and what he actually does is another, so the available options remain on the table.
The deployment to the area of rapid assault teams, such as the 82nd Airborne Division (paratroopers), infantry troops moved from Asia, elite groups specializing in risky operations, and a new contingent of marines that could amount to 17,000-20,000 troops in total, suggests the possibility of a last attempt to obtain something with which to negotiate with Iran.
The list of main options is as follows.
1st). Capture of Kharg Island.
The idea is that if Iran controls the strait, oil exports are blocked to prevent them from profiting from that control. Once the island is conquered, an ultimatum is issued to negotiate, and if Iran refuses, the entire energy infrastructure is threatened with destruction.
2nd). Attempt to assault the Iranian coast of the Strait of Hormuz, with the intention of opening the maritime passage.
It would be the perfect solution, but it has the drawback of extraordinary difficulty, and above all, how to maintain free passage with the continuous attacks by Iranian forces. It seems very complicated without changing the Iranian regime.
3) A desperate attempt to capture the nuclear material stored by Iran, in a special operation, after which, consider all objectives achieved and abandon the scene of operations.
I already mentioned it in this article yesterday .
4) Before a land invasion, threaten the use of a strategic nuclear weapon to end the war and force unconditional surrender.
Such a drastic “solution” seems unthinkable, given the global consequences of the use and abuse of nuclear power. It would cross a red line too dangerous even for Trump.
5) The recent option of abandoning the Gulf, lowering the objectives .
Meanwhile , the US administration is trying to redefine its objectives, but the overall vision and strategy for achieving the ultimate goal of “mission accomplished” are far from clear. For example, at the beginning of the war, the White House officially included ending the Iranian nuclear program and eliminating enriched uranium as objectives, but this is no longer on the list .
In contrast, the State Department, citing Marco Rubio, has issued the following military targets in Iran :
1. The destruction of Iran’s air force
2. The destruction of their navy
3. The serious decrease in its missile launch capability.
4. The destruction of their factories
These are much more “achievable” objectives, allowing the Trump administration to save face by declaring that they have all been met, whenever it wants to proclaim that the mission is accomplished and withdraw Pentagon resources from the theater of operations .”
The remaining options can be variations of the list, or even a combination of several of them.
Nobody can trust Trump’s statements and he’s not going to say what’s really going to happen, so we can only speculate by analyzing the options.
1st). It is the most likely option from my point of view.
A swift takeover of the island, negotiations with conditions, and if Iran refuses, “blow up” the island. If Iran closes the strait, it would be a problem for others, especially China, in the long run. The US doesn’t need the gas or oil from the Gulf and also has access to a large portion of the fertilizers, thanks to its own gas production. The drawback is the rise in oil prices, which could be mitigated by a ban on domestic oil exports, which would inevitably drive down WTI prices (there would be a huge surplus).
In contrast, its main rival, China, would face serious long-term supply problems if the shutdown continues. At the same time, Iran’s oil export capacity would fall to almost zero.
Even to negotiate with China, he could propose an exchange of rare earth elements and other refined metals for the stagnant, unsold US oil stockpile.
2nd). Very risky.
Assaulting the Iranian coast would cause heavy casualties and would be a nightmare to maintain control for months. The US would prefer to leave it to others who need the Gulf oil more.
3rd). Also very risky and the intention would be to convince the American people of the total achievement of the priority objective.
High risk and low reward, it doesn’t make sense. It seems like a smokescreen to distract us.
4th). I don’t even consider it seriously, because it would mean a break with everyone and a dangerous action as a global precedent.
5) Although it’s not entirely out of the question (it would be my second most likely option), it seems like another smokescreen to achieve the main goal. It would be very difficult to convince the world of a “victory” if the main objectives (changing the Iranian regime and confiscating the nuclear fuel) are abandoned.
Therefore, in my opinion, the attack on Kharg Island over a weekend, with a swift resolution of the conditions (ultimatum), seems the most likely scenario. I don’t think they would try to maintain control for long, to avoid a response from Iran and to limit the number of casualties as much as possible.
We’ll see…
They key thing to remember about Drumpf: He’s a showman. He will put on a pageant.
Remember 2020, when the election was “stolen”? He claimed a “win” when he lost, and then put on a gargantuan pageant (at taxpayer expense) in 2021 to stage his “win.”
Expect something similar with the war. He will claim a “win” when he clearly lost. He’ll put on an enormous pageant (at taxpayer expense) to stage his big win to canned applause then return to civilian life wearing his fake laurels.
It’s disgusting, but it’s better than the alternative–worldwide destruction.
He currently seems frustrated to the point where he wants to walk away and leave the rest of the world to clear up the mess – stinging broadsides directed at the UK today from both him and Hegseth.
Analyses that assume there’s still a menu — while the kitchen is already on fire
Right now, there is no shortage of analyses about the war around Iran. They tend to follow the same structure. A list of options. Scenario A, B, C. What might Donald Trump do? What is rational? What is likely?
It all reads well. Structured. Almost reassuring.As if choices are still being made. As if there is still a menu. But that is precisely the mistake.
These analyses assume a world in which actors still have room to decide. Where strategy precedes action. Where objectives are clear and means are available. Where time is something you can still allocate.
That world is gone. What we are seeing now has little to do with selecting options. It is a system under pressure reacting to events, not executing a plan.
The Strait of Hormuz does not open or close because someone decides it should. It happens through insurers, risk assessments, incidents, counteractions. Military success does not mean ships will sail again. An attack on Kharg Island is not a move on a chessboard. It is an event with cascading consequences that no one fully controls or even understands in advance.
Yet in these analyses, it becomes: option one, option two, option three. That creates a sense of clarity.And that clarity no longer exists. What is missing from almost all of these pieces is the reality of friction. Logistics. Time. Wear and tear. Financing. Insurance. The reactions of others that fall outside the model. The simple fact that systems do not behave as they should, but as they still can.
So the question is no longer: what is the most rational next step? The real question is: what happens when no one can steer the whole anymore? Then you do not get the execution of a plan, but a sequence of events. Partial actions, unexpected escalations, temporary pauses, new disruptions.
No clear beginning. No controlled middle. No defined end. Only movement. That is why so many analyses feel empty right now. Not because they are wrong, but because they belong to a way of thinking that no longer fits the phase we are in.
They describe a world of choices. The reality is one of constraints.
Or more simply: they are still looking at the menu, while the kitchen is already on fire.
From the halls of Montezuma to the shores of Kharg island, we shall play the only game in town, the game of ‘blame the clown’.
>>> They describe a world of choices. The reality is one of constraints. Or more simply: they are still looking at the menu, while the kitchen is already on fire.
Ding, ding, we have a winner! Thanks Zip!
I agree – so spot on, Zip! Too complex to game out.
Flippr, amazing to see that the “Iran-Contra war [scandal]” is still going on! Thankfully, most of the translation seems to make sense! LOL
“What we are seeing now has little to do with selecting options. It is a system under pressure reacting to events, not executing a plan.”
Zip, that lack of agency is palpable. This conflict has already changed the world forever in ways the protagonists did not anticipate.
The ageing and bloated but undernourished global economic superorganism has just had a colossal heart attack, and will never regain its former vigour.
Reminds me of another magamaniac, Addie Hitter of Germany. He also thought all was needed was to kick the door in and the whole house would collapse. He thought wrongly, of course, the initial onslaught blow was taken but the military and leadership remained intact. Like Trump, time, distance and military hardware were a limiting factor. He did not realize that others had a “will” too, along with determination and resolve and intelligence.
Addie also boasted on many occasions “They are finished” and all we need is one more “push”.
Many thought Addie was a clown too and even the leader of Germany said at first he might appoint him to Postmaster…
Striking is the people backed Addie to the bitter complete utter destruction of the nation.
Of course, there were isolated attempts for regime change, but the system structure remained intact Ed.
Seeing similar repeating itself
Malignant narcissist personality type was first coined to describe Hitler. He was probably more dangerous than Trump because he had specific (evil) plans, like expending to the east and having a pan-European war to provide the resources for a greater German autarky (although he planned to start it in 1942, but he’d se screwed the German economy by 1939 it had to be advanced). There’s no way Trump looks beyond this evening, let alone over several years.
Goot point, well taken. I’m with you in regards to his attention span and self centered glorification gratification, like the other dicktator (sic).
Would like to point out, Iran has been planning for years for such a sneak attack and are prepared in all regard. Pre WWII Soviet Union also prepared for such a sneak attack (even built platforms beyond the Urals in case they needed to relocate their industrial base in short order, which they did).
Like Addie Hitter, Trumps initial success over Venezuela gave him confidence
to undertake this adventure and be a great military leader.
His ego has no bounds. Recently the Florida governor has approved renaming a Florida airport after him and the planned Trump opulent library ,over the top embellishments has raised concerns…
Plans for gaudy Trump presidential library in Miami spark ridicule
Video posted on social media depicts a rendering of the proposed 50-storey gargantuan structure decked in gold
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/31/trump-presidential-library-plans-miami-ridicule
I think he was serious in calling it the Straits of Trump.
“Trump signature to appear on US currency, ending 165-year tradition. U.S. paper currency will bear President Donald Trump’s signature starting this summer, the first time a sitting president has signed American money, the Treasury Department said.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-signature-appear-us-currency-treasury-says-ending-165-year-tradition-2026-03-26/
Italy joins Spain in denying US Air Force use of their facilities.
https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/us-bombers-italy-sigonella-air-base-refusal/#:~:text=Italy%20has%20refused%20permission%20for,Mate%202nd%20Class%20Damon%20J.
Wow! Keep it up, Italy. May it spread to other countries – fast!
Duke, that is in a way more of a big deal, given that the US and Italian governments are much more ideologically aligned than those of the US and Spain.
I understand why we are almost all so focused on this war. I just want to say that I SO VERY MUCH appreciate Panopticon’s climate threads (45 or so links today!?). They reveal how much we have polluted our beautiful planet, how many animals including humans are suffering already.
In this age of specialization, the geopolitical analysts are mostly stuck in their silos, talking about the massive shifts in global politics and the economic shockwave unfolding, rarely if ever mentioning or even acknowledging the TSUNAMI of ecological destruction unfolding for centuries (even millennia) but now at a level where our continued existence is not only threatened, but, I believe, ensured.
I have posted this quote before, I am pretty sure, but here it is again. It feels like my anthem.
“One of the penalties of an ecological education is that one lives alone in a world of wounds. Much of the damage inflicted on the land is quite invisible to laymen. An ecologist must either harden his shell and make believe that the consequences of science are none of his business, or he must be the doctor who sees the marks of death in a community that believes itself well and does not want to be told otherwise.” ~ Aldo Leopold
For those unfamiliar with him: https://www.aldoleopold.org/about/aldo-leopold
You are welcome, Cassandra. That is very kind of you to say.
Yes – the ecological story very much forms the background and context for the human psychodrama that currently absorbs most of our attention.
Looking at that 3year temperature average we are maybe already climbing at about one degree per decade and with a super EL Nino to come there must now be a not insignificant chance that we pass 2 degrees in 2027, not just momentarily but based on the 20 year average. So yet again applying the “everything is always faster rule” has proved too little and my 2032 estimate is going to be years too late.
George, this is Professor Jim Hansen’s most recent take on it:
“The Nino index (Nino3.4) has just reached Nino-neutral, but global SST (sea surface temperature) has matched the highest level for this date, which was achieved during the last El Nino. Super warming is clear.
“Look for a global temperature soon of at least +1.7C, even if the “Super” El Nino turns out to be half-baked.”
https://x.com/DrJamesEHansen/status/2038979587460551058