33 Comments

1. 

   Flippr on March 24, 2026 at 10:15 am

   Quark’s latest is titled “Divergent Crises”

   Direct link: https://tinyurl.com/4n3r34da

   Google translated, copied and pasted:
   To understand this crisis, we only need to go back to the origin, “American First”.

   Yes, the US is only interested in what affects it as a country, and it has decided to sever ties with its former allies in order to exploit the current situation for its own benefit. Behind this statement, which undoubtedly sounds harsh, lie the actions taken by the Trump administration since the beginning of his second term.

   Let’s see what divergent crisis means.

   The US has achieved total energy independence. It has enough oil (of course, we must include exports from Canada and Venezuela, as if they were domestic production, because the former cannot sell abroad due to its limited access to the sea and the latter is “controlled” after the intervention), gas, and coal to not need anything from any other country in the world.

   But it has a problem with prices and markets (that’s its own crisis). It may not need to import oil from the Persian Gulf, but the price increase is global, so it has decided that oil prices cannot rise too high, pulling the strings of price formation in the paper futures markets, through direct and indirect actions.

   The constant pronouncements at specific times are aimed at curbing price increases. We all know from economic theory that suppressing the price of a limited good eventually generates a shortage, as it eliminates the reduction in demand caused by price controls. But scarcity isn’t something that worries the USA.

   In contrast, in the rest of the world, mainly Southeast Asia, the price may not matter as much as the future shortage of oil and gas, if the Gulf conflict continues for months.

   It is clearly a divergent crisis. The US wants to avoid a financial market crisis at all costs, while in the rest of the world, the problem is a supply crisis .

   Trump couldn’t initiate this move during his first term because shale oil was just beginning to grow, and therefore, the US was still dependent on importing oil. But as everyone has noticed, right from the start of his second term, Trump dropped the pretense and made a series of surprising decisions, imposing tariffs on everyone, starting with his allies, followed by a show of force in Greenland, an attack on Venezuela, and an all-out war with Iran. The US had a window of opportunity before shale oil production began to decline (and it would again need to import large quantities of oil), and it’s taking advantage of it.

   It’s important to understand that Trump doesn’t need Middle Eastern oil, while the rest of the world does. Therefore, as time goes on, the need will only increase, and the US advantage will grow, much to the despair of all its rivals. If he conquers Iran, he will control all of the Middle East’s oil and be able to negotiate a swap for products he lacks, such as rare earth elements. But if things don’t go well and energy infrastructure is destroyed, he will still be king in the land of the blind, thanks to his independence. It’s a win-win game, where the only thing that matters to him is maintaining stable markets (to avoid his own crisis) through his manipulation of the futures markets.

   This strategy places the rest of the world in the face of an unprecedented crisis.

   The severity of the crisis is going unnoticed by the vast majority of the population, who don’t see many problems because the markets aren’t crashing like in other crises. But the statements from some institutions leave no doubt about the magnitude of the catastrophe.

   The executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, warned on Monday that the situation is “very serious” and surpasses the energy crises of the 1970s and the 2022 crisis following the invasion of Ukraine combined, in a context marked by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on power plants in the Middle East. This is Birol’s second major warning in just a few days, as on Friday he stated that it is “the most serious energy crisis of all time” and estimated that it could last “six months or more.”

   During a speech at the Australian National Press Club in Canberra, Birol stated that the current crisis is equivalent to “two oil crises and a gas collapse combined,” referring to the energy crises of 1973 and 1979 caused by embargoes and crude oil production cuts in the Middle East, and the more recent one with Russian supplies, which represents a “major threat ” to the global economy.

   Did you read it correctly?

   Now we have to accept it.

   The two oil crises of 1973 and 1979 plunged the West into a tremendous crisis, with inflation and interest rates reaching 15%. Such a level would mean the complete collapse of the financial system today, because back then debt was very low and now it is far too high. And we all remember the 2022 energy crisis. Well, the IEA (which is hardly known for its alarmist views) says that the current crisis is equivalent to the sum of all three crises, something unimaginable given the current context of excessive debt.

   Yes, we are on the verge of a complete collapse and those responsible (this time it is a crisis that was sought, not found) remain at the helm, until the outcome, whatever it may be.

   I’m sure the USA won’t emerge unscathed from this crisis, but it seems content to be the least affected and able to impose its conditions on the rest of the world. Global hegemony restored and the dollar’s dominance for another 100 years, not to mention getting everything it wants in terms of trade.

   Don’t be fooled by Trump’s constant pronouncements; this crisis isn’t going to end anytime soon. And the trend suggests we’re heading straight for a cliff.

   Finally, I think that with the explanation in this article, the disconnect between financial markets and the supply crisis, which I mentioned the other day, is much better understood.

   Just an opinion.

   • 

     Panopticon on March 24, 2026 at 5:09 pm

     “Don’t be fooled by Trump’s constant pronouncements; this crisis isn’t going to end anytime soon.”

     It’s certainly looking pretty entrenched today, Flippr:

     “Iran war: Attacks intensify as oil rises above $100… Iran said it will fight “until complete victory” and denied having held direct talks with the US. Israeli forces also carried out strikes on Tehran.”

     https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-attacks-intensify-as-oil-rises-above-100/live-76497473

2. 

   Flippr on March 24, 2026 at 10:19 am

   Refinery explosion in Texas:

   https://www.kplctv.com/2026/03/23/explosion-port-arthur-refinery/

   • 

     Truth Wizard on March 24, 2026 at 10:50 am

     Yeah, it’s just an opinion. Sounds like a boomer.

     Trump doesn’t need oil from the middle east but the price of gas and diesel is soaring here in the states. How you think that’s gonna go for long? We’re already squeezed so tight it’s ridiculous. Most of my generation and younger can’t afford a house or anything that resembles a decent quality of life. The “abundance” we were told if we worked hard and followed the rules. Wages have stagnated for many years.

     It’s all connected, combined with the mounting debt, the pitchforks are coming or we’re just going to have a slow collective suicide.

     Anyways just thoughts, it doesn’t matter. After 2030, global stability is no longer a thing. By 2040, everyone is dead or wish they were.

     • 

       Mad Hatter on March 25, 2026 at 5:52 pm

       Sometime do a deep research over Heritage Foundation and trickle down economics.
       We have alternatives to pitchforks – Pan is one of them 🙂
       Keep searching for the new. This, too, will change, as an old Sufi master once said.

   • 

     Mike B on March 24, 2026 at 11:19 am

     My understanding is that it’s more complicated than that: What he says is “true” for liquids, not crude oil from which diesel is produced. Isn’t there still a shortfall of medium distillates in the US for producing diesel?

     AI says refineries require 16.5 mbd but US produces 13.5 mbd of crude. There is an excess of LTO and NGL that the US exports. It’s like having plenty of apples for apple juice, so you sell apples abroad, but not enough oranges for orange juice, which you have to import. Comments?

     • 

       Cassandra on March 24, 2026 at 12:10 pm

       That’s my understanding as well, Mike. Maybe somebody else can weigh in more definitively. I’ve heard in various places that we in truth are definitely not energy independent. I would think Quark would know that but maybe he is right.

       • 

         George Kaplan on March 24, 2026 at 1:04 pm

         On a strictly liquids energy basis US produces less than 90% of what it uses, mainly because a third of production is NGL which only have 70% of energy of oil. But it’s worse because most of the NGLs go as chemical feedstock plus US is set for refining heavy oil rather than LTO. But there is other energy – it exports a lot of LNG but imports some natural gas from Canada (and a lot of hydro electricity). So not a definitive answer I’m afraid.

         In the UK energy crises are pretty certain to mean a change of PM and usually a complete change of government.

         • 

           Panopticon on March 24, 2026 at 5:15 pm

           “In the UK energy crises are pretty certain to mean a change of PM and usually a complete change of government.”

           Could we have a Truss meltdown part 2? A run on the £?

           “Appetite for gilts shifting as fund groups become concerned with UK’s potential lurch to the left… Fund groups believe political instability is already having an impact on allocations to UK assets, Quilter’s latest Investor Trends survey has found.”

           https://www.marketscreener.com/news/quilter-appetite-for-gilts-shifting-as-fund-groups-become-concerned-with-uka-s-potential-lurch-to-ce7e5edddf81f520

       • 

         jupiviv on March 24, 2026 at 1:11 pm

         That shortfall is largely covered by Canada as Quark mentions. There’s a bit coming in from the Middle East but nothing that can’t be expropriated from some of our other vassal states around the globe – Venezuela, Brazil, Nigeria.

         Quark is trying to flesh out the motivation behind the war from the US perspective rather than asserting that the plan will work out. Even domestic US oil is inextricably dependent on the world economy in numerous ways both direct and indirect. There’s only so much devastation we can visit upon it before cascading effects pile up and knock out our own production.

   • 

     rob on March 24, 2026 at 4:15 pm

     ‘Shale oil was just beginning to grow” … that’s just not so. The ramp up in shale occurred during the Obama administration, rising to ~13mln bbl’s/day by the end of his term where it has pretty much remained despite the idiotic “drill, baby drill” rhetoric (which was for Alaska and other areas where there were bans on drilling).

     The only reason no one knows this, is because the dems cling to their “green” credentials so fanatically; otherwise they would point out that the rise in US oil production during the Obama/Biden administration was the largest in US history. Nothing The Furor has done to spike US production even comes close. Hence the need to resort to piracy, extortion and murder.

3. 

   George Kaplan on March 24, 2026 at 10:39 am

   The recent US heatwave was so unlikely, even for a bell curve shifted to account for warming to date, that it implies that climate extremes are following a fat tail distribution. This is in-line with, but probably worse than, previous research showing the distributions flatten as warming grows. It means that highly damaging (and now increasingly irrecoverable) events may be hundreds, thousands or more times as likely as previously expected. A probable conclusion is that climate will be incompatible with civilisation over much of the globe well before three degrees average warming is reached. This is another indication that long term climate models are too coarse temporally and spatially to pick up the worst extremes (e.g. instead of damaging, localised and intermittent drought and flood events they will predict endless and widespread drizzle).

   In a non-linear system extreme events will often produce a reinforcing feedback because they are asymmetric, so ill effects at the extreme are not recovered as things revert to the mean (for example losing the carbon capture service of corals if they die in a marine heat wave will never be recovered, whereas a slowly rising trend would keep them active for many more years).

   GFS is predicting some scorchers ahead – I think one degree anomaly shown is more than 1.8 above preindustrial (and we are still not quite in even a mild El Nino). Two degrees by 2030? – any takers, or how about “we can still meet the 1.5 target”.

   http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php

   p.s. on another subject: at the Shell Sparta development in GoM (due 2027), after three new wells have been permanently abandoned after a couple of days drilling and one approved to be sidetracked there is currently no drilling activity at all. I think there may be some serious reanalysis going on. Overall the BSEE deepwater activity is as low as ever and almost fits on one page for the first time (Gxxxxx -GoM lease, Pyyyyy – Pacific), with a quarter being work over units on plug and abandonment contracts.

   https://www.bsee.gov/sites/bsee.gov/files/2026-03/Deepwater%20Activity%20Weekly%20Report%2003.18.2026.pdf

   • 

     Rob on March 24, 2026 at 4:46 pm

     This spike was predicted by Sam Carana on his Arctic blog as long as 5 years ago, as the El Niño building in the Pacific was cyclically due. Along with the fact that it would coincide with the current solar maximum (strange how no one in the media has mentioned the SUN as a possible source of the current energy imbalance).

     Sam’s prediction?

     1.5 degrees over pre-industrial levels (as per Eliot’s post above)
     0.5 degrees added from the solar maximum
     1.0 degrees from the super El Niño

     That’s a full 3 degrees above pre-industrial temperature, not by 2030, but THIS year.

     Personally, I’m convinced that that’s a conservative estimate, as the CO2 equivalent (which factors in the other heat trapping gases such as methane) is the highest it has ever been in human history: ie heat-trapping gases’ maximum coinciding with the solar maximum coinciding with an El Niño maximum.

     So by all means, let’s stir a 21’st century war-waging maximum into the mix with a climate chaos-denying Furor insisting on “American Fist” into the mix.

     The repercussions befalling the US, such as Hawaii’s 50” of rain and Arizona’s 110 degree record-breaking heat while still in astronomical winter, are harbingers of an historic year of weather related disasters that are not commented on by our Free Press. So denying that there’s a connection between gung-ho Vulture Capitalism and accelerating climate derangement doesn’t even have to be made.

   • 

     Panopticon on March 24, 2026 at 5:29 pm

     “The recent US heatwave was so unlikely…”

     George, the Pacific NW heatwave of 2021 was even more anomalous.

     “The observed 2021 daily maximum temperature across much of the U.S. Pacific Northwest exceeded upper bound estimates obtained from single-station temperature records even after accounting for anthropogenic climate change, meaning that the event could not have been predicted under standard univariate extreme value analysis assumptions.”

     https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13253-024-00636-8

     My guess is that we will have seen the 3-year running average for the global mean surface temperature anomaly exceed 2C by 2035.

     Rob, I see your comment below Heather’s re the solar maximum. It did indeed peak in 2024/5, thankfully. We need all the cooling we can get.

4. 

   Truth Wizard on March 24, 2026 at 11:00 am

   Two degrees by 2030.
   Three degrees by 2040.

   Good analysis.

   • 

     George Kaplan on March 24, 2026 at 2:01 pm

     Things are going too fast for me to keep up, and they are only going to accelerate. I’m beginning to understand why so many go the full denial route, it’s overwhelming.

5. 

   Bob Shaw on March 24, 2026 at 12:06 pm

   Is China moving to hoarding silver for industrial, military, and coinage purposes?

   ————————
   790 Tons in 2 Months: China’s Massive Physical Grab

   China’s appetite for silver lifted overseas purchases to an eight-year high at the start of 2026.

   The world’s biggest buyer pulled in over 790 tons in the first two months, including nearly 470 tons in February, the highest ever for that month, according to Chinese customs data. These are not speculative numbers. They are customs records. And they tell a story the silver market cannot afford to ignore….

   https://www.disruptionbanking.com/2026/03/23/790-tons-chinas-massive-silver-grab-sparks-shortage-fears/
   ——————
   ME: Recall my posting yesterday about the US being insolvent. When the US Greenback = Zero, is the US ready for gold for BIG purchases and silver coinage for retail purchases?

   Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

   • 

     Panopticon on March 24, 2026 at 6:51 pm

     Bob, silver with its violent price swings has certainly been one of the more interesting financial stories this past year.

     My only personal exposure to it has been a rather steep bill to get my wife’s wedding ring repaired.

6. 

   Cassandra on March 24, 2026 at 1:02 pm

   “Pesticides, pharmaceuticals and industrial chemicals found everywhere in seawater…”

   I could sum up this thread and this site and planetary reality as follows:

   We have polluted our ecosystem to death.

   (Now in its terminal phase.)

   PS nice shout out from Jeff Beradelli for Mr. Extreme Temps

   • 

     VPK on March 24, 2026 at 2:20 pm

     Shh…not too load…it’s our little secret here among mature adults..we need not scare the children..

     Florida Panhandle Marine Institute reports the death of 44th dolphin
     The majority of the dolphin deaths took place beginning March 7 in Gulf and Bay counties, a spokesperson from Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) wrote in a statement.

     The marine institute said they are working alongside FWC and National Marine Fisheries Service to investigate.

     If you see a stranded dolphin, the FWC encourages you to call their wildlife alert hotline at 888-404-FWCC (888-404-3922).

     To stay up to date on all the latest news as it develops, follow WJHG on Facebook, Instagram and X (Twitter).

     https://www.wjhg.com/2026/03/23/florida-panhandle-marine-institute-reports-death-44th-dolphin/?outputType=amp

     Maybe they need to be vaccinated…

     • 

       Panopticon on March 24, 2026 at 6:53 pm

       Vince, also in Florida:

       “An “unusual number” of fish were found dead in a town on Florida’s Estero Island this month, and officials believe fertilizer runoff is likely to blame.”

       https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/fish-killed-fertilizer-warning-florida-b2943928.html

7. 

   zip on March 24, 2026 at 1:55 pm

   Energy independence does not exist

   In the debate on the energy crisis, the term “energy independence” is often used. Countries like the United States are frequently cited as examples of economies that can sustain themselves. That view, however, is misleading. The article by Quark misses this point as well, although the remark about the “one-eyed man in the land of the blind” does carry some relevance.

   A modern energy system is not a simple balance of production and consumption, but a complex network of interdependent processes. Oil and gas are only the beginning of a chain that includes refining, transport, storage, conversion, and maintenance. Each of these steps requires specific infrastructure, specialized knowledge, and materials that are rarely fully available within a single country.

   Even in the case of the United States, where oil production has increased significantly due to shale exploitation, dependence remains. American refineries are historically configured for heavier crude oil, which is needed to produce middle distillates such as diesel and kerosene — the fuels essential for transport, agriculture, industry, and aviation. Domestic production, however, consists largely of lighter shale oil, which is less suitable for these applications. The result is a continuous exchange with the outside world: exports of light oil and imports of heavier grades.

   In addition, energy production and distribution depend on components and materials produced globally. Rare earth elements, essential for magnets, electronics, and control systems, form a crucial layer in the functioning of power grids, refineries, and transport infrastructure. The refining and processing of these materials is concentrated in a limited number of countries, with China as the dominant player. This is a gap that cannot be closed, not in time and not at scale.

   Energy independence therefore proves not to be a stable condition, but a temporary balance dependent on continuous flows and cooperation. As soon as one link in the chain comes under pressure, the relative nature of that independence becomes visible. Even something as basic as water availability can become the weakest link, as is regularly seen in places like Texas. Moreover, analyses of shale depletion and conventional oil production in the Gulf of Mexico point to a clear conclusion: both are on a declining trajectory toward 2040.

   In a world of complex systems, the question shifts. It is no longer who is independent, but who can keep the system operational the longest under increasing stress, in whatever form. The real question is not who is independent, but who can continue functioning when the chain comes under pressure. At the same time, another, less visible issue is emerging in the United States: deferred maintenance. Roads, bridges, pipelines, refineries, and power grids require ever more investment simply to remain operational. The economy is slowly shifting from a system that produces surplus to one that is primarily occupied with maintaining its existing infrastructure. This requires continuous energy, capital, and materials, without directly generating new growth.

   Here lies a specific vulnerability for the United States. An economy built on the illusion of growth, extremely high consumption, and continuous energy availability responds poorly to scarcity.

   What long appeared as strength — scale, speed, and purchasing power — can quickly turn into social unrest when shortages arise. A system that consumes heavily has very little margin when supply begins to falter.

   In short, the United States may be able to sustain the illusion of autonomy slightly longer than the European Union — but what does “long” actually mean? Ten, perhaps fifteen years at most. And what does that buy you? Certainly not a MAGA handbook.

   • 

     VPK on March 24, 2026 at 2:40 pm

     Thanks Zip,
     This news just in, maybe it’s related to your post..
     https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/22/saudi-aramco-boss-pulls-out-of-ceraweek-due-to-iran-conflict-reuters.html

     Saudi Aramco boss pulls out of major international energy conference due to Iran conflict, source says
     Saudi Aramco Chief ⁠Executive Amin Nasser has cancelled his planned appearance at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston to remain in Saudi Arabia because of the Iran conflict, an industry source told Reuters.
     Nasser, who has been CEO of the world’s top oil exporter for more than a decade, is usually a headline speaker at the conference, one of the energy industry’s biggest events.
     CERAWeek, organized by S&P Global and beginning on Monday, draws top executives, government officials, and policymakers from around the world to discuss the global energy market outlook.
     Nasser’s withdrawal highlights ⁠the scale ‌of the challenge he faces in dealing with the Iran crisis.
     He will ⁠also not provide a recorded video message for the CERAWeek conference, the source said, adding that the event’s organizers had been notified.

     …Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, CEO of state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, will also not attend the Houston gathering but will join a Tuesday session at the conference virtually from Kuwait, a separate source said.

     Abu Dhabi wealth fund Mubadala ‌is unlikely to have any representatives at the event, a source familiar with the matter said.

     It was not immediately clear if Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of the UAE’s oil company ADNOC, would attend in person. He is listed as a speaker on the event website. ADNOC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

     At last year’s conference, Jaber said it was time to “make energy great again,” mirroring Trump’s Make America Great Again slogan while pledging large investments ​in the U.S. by ADNOC’s international

     Yep, we sure are making energy great again…by blowing it all up at once..good job guys

   • 

     Panopticon on March 24, 2026 at 7:05 pm

     Zip, this Iran war, intended to project strength, is doing the reverse at this point, revealing the limitations of US military might and strategic nous.

     Meanwhile, the economic blowback from this misadventure does not augur well for an economy this indebted and bifurcated:

     “America’s wealth gap is growing, and Trump’s policies are making it bigger… The typical American can’t afford the median-priced home. A new car is out of reach for many, with the average monthly payment exceeding $700. Food banks are seeing a growing number of people skipping meals because they can’t afford groceries, and more middle-class Americans are selling their plasma to make ends meet.”

     https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/trump-economy-wealth-gap-americans-affordability-inflation-prices-rcna264112

8. 

   Bob Shaw on March 24, 2026 at 3:03 pm

   ME: “How the Hunt Brothers Cornered the Silver Market and Then Lost it All”
   My Speculation–>How China will attempt to corner the Silver Market and Keep it All.

   If you recall the Hunt brothers trying to totally control the silver market back in the 80s:
   ————————
   https://priceonomics.com/how-the-hunt-brothers-cornered-the-silver-market/

   How the Hunt Brothers Cornered the Silver Market and Then Lost it All

   Until his dying day in 2014, Nelson Bunker Hunt, who had once been the world’s wealthiest man, denied that he and his brother plotted to corner the global silver market.

   Sure, back in 1980, Bunker, his younger brother Herbert, and other members of the Hunt clan owned roughly two-thirds of all the privately held silver on earth. But the historic stockpiling of bullion hadn’t been a ploy to manipulate the market, they and their sizable legal team would insist in the following years. Instead, it was a strategy to hedge against the voracious inflation of the 1970s—a monumental bet against the U.S. dollar.

   Whatever the motive, it was a bet that went historically sour. The debt-fueled boom and bust of the global silver market not only decimated the Hunt fortune but threatened to take down the U.S. financial system….

   …In financial terms, the brothers had a large corpse on their hands—and no way to bury it…
   ———————
   ME: That was then, THIS is NOW.
   Everyone [most unknowingly!] is helping to bury the silver corpse…

   1. The US financial system is insolvent. US bonds eventually head to zero, soon no ability to even make interest payments unless hyperinflation is the FED goal.
   2. Hormuz cutoff will cause inflation to rise + unemployment to grow = stagflation.
   3. No fiat currency has ever lasted. No stock market bubble + real estate bubble has ever lasted.
   4. Ongoing depletion of FFs + minerals are guaranteed.
   5. The ‘black hole’ of industrial & military usage of silver [no effective recycling]. Ounces disappear!
   6. Most of grandma’s silverware is now gone; most has already been sold back and melted down.
   7. Because of the WWWeb, most of the world is now aware of PM prices.
   8. Luke Groman thesis: financial returns on oil > ever diminishing financial returns on US Treasuries.
   9. Central Banks continue to net-sell US treasuries and add to PM stockpiles.
   10. China has nearly complete control of global silver refining plus export controls!
   11. Collapse + global gid failure means Crypto = Zero increasing desire for physical PM ownership.
   12. Even gold-backed ETFs won’t work without WWWeb functioning.

   The Hunt brothers used silver futures to leverage their ownership [which backfired bigly!].

   China is not gambling with futures, they don’t need too! Naturally occurring [4, 5, 6, 7 above] means over time that less silver will be extracted by mining [4], untold millions of ounces will be lost from entropy [5], and now there is not much silver that people want to part with [6,7].

   The rest of the numbers above only add to the forces driving us to using PMs for Real Money. Just like in the past thousands of years.

   My usual warning: If you can’t hold it, you don’t own it!

   Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

   • 

     Duke on March 24, 2026 at 5:38 pm

     Add this to your list. Terribe 2 year auction.

     https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/terrible-2y-auction-biggest-tail-3-years-dealers-highest-2022

     • 

       Bob Shaw on March 24, 2026 at 11:22 pm

       Thanks Duke, good to know. Additionally, if Social Security & Medicare go belly-up soon–>people holding PMs will be very reluctant to let their PMs go cheap. They will only exchange them for something very vital like an appendix removal or fixing a broken leg on a child.

9. 

   Heather B on March 24, 2026 at 4:32 pm

   https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-2026-el-nino-update-march-2026.html?m=1
   Arctic news update on el nino

   • 

     rob on March 24, 2026 at 5:05 pm

     I see I may have exaggerated the El Niño bump, Heather… guess my memory may be a tad faulty. The peak of the El Niño in 2027 would then no longer coincide with the solar maximum.

     However, what will coincide will be the highest temperature anomalies of the 21’st century with the highest energy/electricity prices with the highest demand for AC globally, resulting in 2026 being the highest human mortality year worldwide, exceeded only by (hopefully) 2020’s Covid numbers.

     Another event whose tragic proportions were exacerbated by the self-serving denialism of the Furor in Washington.

     • 

       Panopticon on March 24, 2026 at 7:09 pm

       Rob, Leon Simons is pointing out that a fertilizer supply shock could also “coincide with rapid climate change and an upcoming El Niño, which [may] disrupt global food production by causing droughts in Asia and Africa while triggering excessive rains in parts of the Americas, affecting 25% of global croplands.”

       https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/2036385722504974463

10. 

    TR on March 24, 2026 at 10:54 pm

    Everyone enjoying the Finding Out part of FAFO?

    On You Tube this saying is going around.
    “Hope you get everything you voted for.”
    Positive empathy. 😉

    • 

      David C on March 25, 2026 at 12:56 pm

      I’m not a great fan of the smugness

11. 

    Survivalist on March 24, 2026 at 11:32 pm

    Iran has been producing some very sophisticated content on social media. Here’s a link to one example. Use your fav search engine to find Irans Lego themed rap videos displaying much gangsta bravado. Perhaps the twitter link below works. I don’t believe you’ll need a twitter account to see it.

    https://x.com/ryanrozbiani/status/2032527423904813116/mediaviewer