Huge thanks to this month’s donor, who wishes to remain anonymous but has asked me to post a link to this poem by their friend, Arthur L Wood. I’m no great shakes when it comes to literary criticism but I was moved by its tenderness and honesty, and heartily recommend giving it a listen.
“Record fossil fuel emissions in 2025 despite renewables buildout, report says…
““With CO2 emissions still increasing, keeping global warming below 1.5°C [2.7°F] is no longer plausible,” Pierre Friedlingstein, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute who led the study, said in a statement.”
“Friday ice update – Arctic sea ice extent is currently the *lowest* on record (JAXA data).
• about 500,000 km² below the 2010s mean
• about 1,110,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 1,670,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 2,000,000 km² below the 1980s mean” [Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3mavlj6af6k2k
“Anomalous Christmas in Iceland: a temperature record of +19.8°C [67.6F] recorded.
“In Iceland, the highest temperature ever recorded in December was registered on Christmas Eve. At 11:00 AM in the town of Seyðisfjörður, thermometers rose to +19.8°C, an unprecedented figure for the Arctic region at this time of year.”
https://unn.ua/en/news/anomalous-christmas-in-iceland-a-temperature-record-of-198c-recorded
“Record heat in 2025 will be nothing special in years to come [UK]…
“The five warmest years in the UK have all happened in the past 25 years. And there is every indication that temperatures will carry on rising… And if there was any doubt about Britain’s changing climate it is revealing that the five coldest years all happened long ago, in 1892, 1888, 1885, 1963 and 1919 respectively.”
“‘Ghost resorts’: as hundreds of ski slopes lie abandoned, will nature reclaim the Alps?
“…The Céüze resort in the southern French Alps had been open for 85 years and was one of the oldest in the country. Today, it is one of scores of ski resorts abandoned across France – part of a new landscape of “ghost stations”. More than 186 have been permanently closed already…”
“Climate change shrinks Austrian Alps glaciers, threatening tourism and wildlife…
“The region, a cornerstone of Europe’s winter tourism, is also seeing altered seasons, diminishing snow at lower altitudes, and water shortages affecting ski operations and mountain huts.”
“Slovenian Alps’ Eurasian lynx population faces serious decline risk amid conservation efforts…
“The Eurasian lynx population in the Slovenian Alps, which serves as a refuge for species adapted to high mountain ecosystems and forms an ecological corridor in Europe, faces a serious risk of decline… Slovenia, which encompasses part of the Alps, hosts glacial valleys and high-altitude forests that are home to rare or endangered plant and animal communities.”
“From deadly heatwaves to flash floods: How Europe’s extreme weather events defined 2025…
“In Europe, flash floods, deadly heatwaves, droughts and record-breaking wildfires became the defining feature of 2025 – a legacy it is still scrambling to recover from. But experts warn these events will likely become the “new normal” unless drastic action is taken…”
“Weather: Flooded Streets in Alimos – Collapse of a Building’s Wall [Greece]…
“In the Alimos area, specifically on Lysikratous Street, the rushing waters turned the road into a river in just a few minutes, causing a concrete retaining wall of an apartment building to collapse.”
https://www.news247.gr/en/weather-flooded-streets-in-alimos-collapse-of-a-buildings-wall/
“Record rainfall in Moroccan city of Salé leaves residential buildings inundated…
“Changing weather patterns and infrastructure issues have seen floods in a several cities in recent years. Heavy rainfall earlier this month killed 37 people in the coastal area of Safi.”
“Climate change threatens ‘women’s gold’ shea butter in West Africa…
“Climate change is endangering shea butter production across West Africa’s Sahel region, jeopardizing the livelihoods of millions of women. Erratic weather and deforestation are reducing yields, creating shortages for a global market that highly values this natural product.”
“Never ending record heat in Central Africa:
“December records today: 38.8 [101.8F] Magaria and Goure in NIGER… Abnormally hot nights continue relentless with Mins >27C in Ivory Coast, Benin, Ghana and Togo; New December record of Highest Minimum at Dapaong, TOGO: min 26.5C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2004625409816830241
“A 38°C [100.4F] Christmas in Bauchi: Is Nigeria prepared for climate change?
“Perhaps it happened years before I was born. However, I have never witnessed December 25 with a temperature of above 30°C in the evening, not even close to that. This year, I happened to be in Bauchi, my home state, during the time. It was quite surprising how confused people were about the weather.”
https://www.thecable.ng/a-38c-christmas-in-bauchi-is-nigeria-prepared-for-climate-change/
“Hailstorm causes extensive damage in Kwakwatsi [South Africa]…
“The hailstorm affected Ward 16 and Ward 17 in Kwakwatsi in the early hours of today at approximately 03:45 in the morning and caused damage to the area, including roofs being blown off, and some houses and windows being broken. This has also caused serious damage to electricity infrastructure.”
“Recent floods kill over 750,000 fish in Erbil’s Taq Taq [Kurdistan].
“Recent flash floods have devastated fish farms in the southeastern town of Taq Taq in Erbil province, killing more than 750,000 fish and dealing a heavy blow to local livelihoods. Khalil Salim, a fish farm owner, said the floods have completely destroyed his business…”
https://www.rudaw.net/english/business/27122025
“Iraq plans 50 new dams to boost water reserves, funding pending: Official…
“Iraq’s water crisis has been exacerbated by five consecutive years of drought, rising temperatures, and upstream dam construction in Turkey and Iran, which has significantly reduced water inflows.”
https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/261220251-amp
“Reservoir supplying Iran capital largely empty despite rain.
“The reservoir of the Amir Kabir dam, one of the largest supplying Iran’s capital, is still largely empty despite sporadic winter rainfall following the worst drought in decades, local media reported Wednesday.”
https://www.brecorder.com/news/40399259/reservoir-supplying-iran-capital-largely-empty-despite-rain
“In India’s desert state, global drinks giants grapple with water scarcity and local anger.
“In the northwestern state of Rajasthan, some of the world’s biggest beverage firms face the additional challenge of securing and managing dwindling water supplies while navigating strict government rules and grievances of some local people who only get the resource piped-in once a week.”
“India’s AI data centers feared to worsen host community water stress…
“Many of India’s nearly 250 data centers are in areas already classified as ‘severely water-scarce’ by a non-profit think tank Planet Tracker, where groundwater levels have been declining for years. State governments such as Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, however, continue to pitch themselves aggressively as AI investment destinations even as they issue drought warnings…”
“Sri Lanka cyclone: More than a million still need aid weeks after Ditwah floods.
“Nearly a month after Cyclone Ditwah tore across Sri Lanka, more than a million people – including over half a million children – remain in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, as floods, landslides and renewed rainfall continue to compound one of the country’s worst disasters in decades.”
https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/12/1166671
“China launches satellite to aid in early extreme weather detection.
“China launched a new geostationary meteorological satellite on Saturday, aiming to boost the country’s ability to monitor extreme weather events and high-impact climate systems with greater precision, according to China Meteorological Administration.”
https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202512/27/WS694f7596a310d6866eb30c22.html
“A year under water: Record floods sweep Vietnam from megacities to tourist hubs in 2025.
“Vietnam endured a year of unprecedented meteorological crises in 2025, as record-breaking rainfall and historic tides triggered disasters that overwhelmed infrastructure across the nation.”
“Floods and Landslides Still Threaten Sumatra…
“In Agam Regency, West Sumatra (Sumbar), flash floods again struck Tanjung Raya District. The disaster was caused by the overflowing Batang River. As of yesterday, the impacts of the flooding were still being felt.”
“Indonesians raise white flags as anger grows over slow flood aid.
“For weeks now, angry and distressed residents in Indonesia’s westernmost province have been raising white flags over the state’s slow response to a series of deadly floods… In a sign of just how frustrating managing the crisis has become, the governor of North Aceh broke down publicly earlier this month.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgzwqjpzp4o
“BREAKING NEWS! Floods Hit South Kalimantan, Flash Floods in Balangan, One Dead in Tala.
“Flooding has hit several areas in several regencies in South Kalimantan, including Banjar, Tanahlaut, Balangan, Hulu Sungai Selatan, Hulu Sungai Tengah, and others. One example is the water level in the Amandit River in Loksado District…”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVrIg4F7Tz0
“Homes threatened as bushfire rages south-east of Perth and storms hit Queensland and Northern Territory…
“Australians on both sides of the country have been warned to remain vigilant as floods and fires threatened their homes on Boxing Day. A bushfire continued to rage about 200km south-east of Perth on Friday morning, although nearby residents were no longer being urged to leave their homes.”
“WA Weather: 120 year weather record smashed as WA crowned hottest place on Earth this Christmas.
“Western Australia was officially the hottest place on Earth on Christmas Day, with one corner of the State breaking a 120 year record… “Cape Leeuwin reached a high of 39.6C on Christmas Day — breaking a 120 year record for the highest maximum temperature in December,” meteorologist Sarah Scully told PerthNow.”
“If many Americans feel a touch of summer in winter, some Australians are feeling a touch of winter in summer. Very cold conditions in the SE:
“Only 1.8C [35.2F] in Flinders Island, Tasmania – a cold record for December and 5C below winter average! 5.6C Low Head also record.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2004381037493985397
“Hailstorm in summer: Severe thunderstorm warnings hit South Island [NZ]…
“It looked like snow in December. But MetService says the whiteout affecting parts of the South Island was caused by severe hail from summer thunderstorms.”
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN OCEANIA – Oceania is living its most extreme heat wave in history with records broken everywhere every day of the month.
“Temperatures above 35C [95F] in Vanuatu at Port Vila with Minimums of 27C (Vanua Lava). Records are falling in every tropical country in the world.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2004730802165481895
“Climate shift warning: São Paulo’s 35.9°C on December 25th breaks 64-year heat record, signaling intensifying trends [record then broken again the next day with 36.2C / 97.2F].
“São Paulo experienced an unprecedented heat event this past December, recording a scorching 35.9 degrees Celsius on the 25th. This temperature mark established a new historical high for the month, surpassing a long-standing record that had remained unchallenged for 64 years.”
“‘Cocaine, gold and meat’: how Colombia’s Amazon became big business for crime networks…
“The report states: “It is a problem of macro-criminality that connects armed groups, gangs and cartels with political intermediaries and business conglomerates that, in addition to taking over natural resources and destroying ecosystems, seek to exercise territorial and population control over the region.””
“Pablo Escobar’s Chital Deer: The New Biological Crisis Threatening Colombia’s Magdalena Medio.
“The exponential increase of Asian deer, illegally introduced four decades ago, jeopardizes the balance of local ecosystems, causing a new biological crisis and challenging environmental authorities in Colombia.”
“California Sea Otters Face New Threats As An Ecosystem Shifts…
“Sea otters once flourished along the entire Pacific coast. When European hunters arrived in the 17thcentury, they found abundant populations — between 150,000 and 300,000 — from Oregon to Baja California.”
“Southern California recorded its wettest Christmas Eve-Christmas Day ever, with Santa Barbara Airport getting 5.91 inches. More than 17 inches fell in one area of the Ventura County mountains.
“The rainfall marks a dramatic reversal from last year’s record drought that preceded the devastating Altadena and Pacific Palisades wildfires.”
“Mudslides buried cars and homes up to their windows in a California mountain town as a powerful storm system brought the wettest Christmas in decades to the southern part of the state.
“As much as 12in of rain fell across the area on Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service, triggering flooding and washing out roads.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/dec/26/california-storms-wind-rain-snow
“A powerful widespread zone of fierce winds that whipped through the northern Rocky Mountain states and the Northern Plains the week of Dec. 14-19, is being classified as a record-strong wind event.
“The massive wind scale delivered new record-strong wind gusts throughout the Intermountain West, from Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, Idaho, Washington state, central California and central New Mexico, also in the Dakotas in mid-December.”
https://www.thefencepost.com/news/record-strong-winds-walloped-intermountain-west/
“The Christmas Present That Arrived Early And Just Won’t Leave: A Continued US Heat Wave…
“Multiple cities reached the milestone of warmest Christmas on record across the U.S., including Oklahoma City; Albuquerque, NM; Tulsa, OK; Salt Lake City, UT; Bozeman, MT and El Paso, TX. The record-breaking heat is concentrating over the Central and Southern Plains and the Southeast for the weekend…” [Graphic Jeff Berardelli X]
https://www.aol.com/articles/santa-sweating-temperatures-soar-warmest-142140660.html
“ABSOLUTE MADNESS:
“Night Minimums up to 64F in Illinois. NIGHT TEMPERATURES TYPICAL OF JULY. Hundreds of records pulverized all over Central States with up to 8F margins. 85F in Arkansas etc.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2004600361659797839
“Inside the multi-million dollar race to dim the sun and stop climate change…
“A secretive team of scientists is working on an unprecedented plan to fill the atmosphere with tiny particles that imitate a volcanic eruption and block out the sun. It might save humanity, or it could spiral out of control.“
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/dim-sun-climate-change-b2877722.html
“Declared extinct in 2025: A look back at some of the species we lost…
“Three Australian species of bandicoots — the marl (Perameles myosuros), southeastern striped bandicoot (Perameles notina) and Nullarbor barred bandicoot (Perameles papillon) — were also declared extinct on the IUCN Red List this year… All three now-extinct species were likely wiped out by the loss of habitat and the spread of feral cats…”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
Walter Coles and Randy Reichert
“”High quality asset with a clear pathway to first gold
Eskay Creek is a sizeable, high grade open pit project, grading roughly 3.5g/t gold equivalent. The mine plan targets around 450kozpa gold equivalent production in years 1 to 5 and roughly 320kozpa over a 12 year mine life. With AISC below US$900 per ounce in the feasibility study, Eskay sits in the rare category of high margin projects in a tier one jurisdiction.””
It takes 1 ton of ore to produce 3.5 gms of gold. This is high grade ore; What is low grade ore? 😰
Hello Ravi,
According to Bing Co-pilot: “Economic low-grade gold ore is generally defined as ore containing less than 1 gram of gold per tonne (g/t). This classification indicates that the ore has a low concentration of gold, which may require extensive processing and extraction methods to recover economically viable amounts of gold. Low-grade gold ore is often considered less economically viable to mine compared to medium-grade and high-grade ores, which contain moderate and high concentrations of gold, respectively.”
—————————-
ME: One must also consider the stripping ratio, which is the amount of useless rock and uneconomic gold ore that has to be blasted, then removed before you can even start extracting the economically valuable ore to be run through the crusher, concentrator, smelter, then refiner or mint. For gold, this can be many tons per final ounce of pure gold. This link below provides more detail [see the illustrations and graphs if pressed for time]:
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9118561/
Rock-to-Metal Ratio [RMR]: A Foundational Metric for Understanding Mine Wastes
Short abstract
Spanning 8 orders of magnitude across 25 mineral commodities and nearly 2000 operations, the quantity of ore mined and waste rock removed to produce a refined mineral commodity unit provides an additional dimension for evaluating the impact of materials and material choice trade-offs.
…Precious metals, led by gold, make up the upper end of this range with individual RMRs ranging between 1.6 × 103 and 2.2 × 108…
——————————————–
ME: note that 103 and 108 are exponents to the 3rd power and the 8th power!
It should be a law that if you want to buy a small gold wedding ring you also get many tons of overburden & toxic waste material dumped in your front yard.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
“It should be a law that if you want to buy a small gold wedding ring you also get many tons of overburden & toxic waste material dumped in your front yard.”
This would certainly erode demand, Bob. 😂
Precious metals rally showing no sign of abating:
“Silver prices jumped 9.6% to top $78 per ounce for the first time ever. Gold rose 1.3% to a fresh record of $4,561 per ounce, and platinum surged 10.5% to its own high, while palladium leapt 13%…
“The latest rally came after the U.S. launched strikes on Islamic State targets in Nigeria on Thursday, adding to other geopolitical tensions.”
https://fortune.com/2025/12/26/silver-prices-gold-platinum-palladium-debt-fears-geopolitical-tensions-send-precious-metals-venezula-nigeria-strikes/
You’re back!
Thank you for your superb work!
You are welcome, Truth Wizard.
Hope you had a lovely break with the fam, Pan, but its great to see you back for another year of informative doom 🙂
“”A secretive team of scientists is working on an unprecedented plan to fill the atmosphere with tiny particles that imitate a volcanic eruption and block out the sun. It might save humanity, or it could spiral out of control.“
Don’t know whether to laugh or cry, what a waste of energy. Was thinking about wasted energy, you’d think with all the knowledge we have now of depletion of energy sources and related resources on the planet – that there would be an effort to at least reign in consumption to minimum necessary & not waste any more on stupid things.
As Joti Brar mentioned recently, why are military uses excluded from all the volumes of COP environment reports?
>>> its great to see you back for another year
Another year, hopefully, but with the way it’s going who knows? And ya Rain, the military gets the blind eye treatment – war and AI are humanity’s only remaining “growth” industries so they get a free pass on all counts.
A Happy New Year indeed, Mad Hatter.
Flippr, Let’s hope we can muddle through 2026 without a multi-vector stress event triggering a global financial heart attack, which seems to me the most immediate threat.
The thought that ran through my mind, re the stuffing of particles into the atmosphere was “What could possibly go wrong?” Followed by giggles, and the afterthought that it is probably another Ponzi scheme like AI, Mars, Bitcoin, etc.
Happy New year to all.
Thanks, Rain. We had a quiet Christmas up here on Islay and it was perfect. Even the weather behaved – high pressure, crisp, sunny…
Night temp 19.7° C in Iceland .
https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1pvtco9/this_is_fine/#lightbox
Ravi, 19.7 C is 67.5 F. I am currently right in the very middle of Texas in Mason at 10 AM : right now 66 F or 19 C with partly sunny.
Not reassuring to know that Iceland AT NIGHT is warmer than Texas as we approach NOONTIME!
Thanks, Ravi. That really should have been in the thread. 19.7C late at night in Iceland in December is quite something.
“The Christmas Present That Arrived Early And Just Won’t Leave: A Continued US Heat Wave…”
Not here in upstate NY. I had to shovel 3+ inches of crusty snow this morning and the forecast is to remain below freezing until at least Monday. This December has been like January/February, cold. 12/5 -2F and 12/9 -4F.
Now I realize this is just a regional anomaly and is not an indication of overall global climate. I know sooner or later we are going to get one of those monster heat waves in the northeast; maybe this summer.
And we can also see by Pan’s lineup the true indication of what is really happening to the global climate. Once again, I’d like to thank Panopticon for all his hard work to bring all this news to us in a convenient format.
Thank you for the kind words, Edward.
I saw that a pre-emptive state of emergency had been declared in NY, but the snowstorm did not look quite noteworthy enough to include in the thread, except, I suppose, as a juxtaposition against the Christmas heatwave hitting other parts of the US.
Cold weather in your neck of the woods tends to translate to wet, windy, Atlantic-driven weather over here, but instead we have this persistent, high pressure system from the east. 🤷♂️
Having a basement to sleep in is a game changer during summer heat waves. Also good for storing food stuffs.
Sleep And Heat: Why Is It Hard To Sleep When It’s Hot?
https://thebettersleepclinic.com/blog/sleep-and-heat-why-hard-to-sleep-when-hot
Interesting stuff, Survivalist.
“Even after you’ve fallen asleep, your body remains sensitive to the room’s temperature. This forces your brain to constantly choose between staying asleep and dealing with the thermal stress, a battle that sleep often loses.”
Unfortunately, we are basement-less. A shame as it would be good place to cower when some of these increasingly fearsome storms roll in.
I used to do shift work at a hospital and I found that if you’re trying to sleep between 9am and 5pm in the summer time then a home with a basement is essential.
Survivalist , I have experienced this . Solution ; I now open my windows for about 10 minutes before going to sleep . This expels the hot air about 22°C to be expelled and cold air 2° to enter my bedroom . Sleep is better at cooler temps .
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/26/ai-dark-ages-enlightenment
Our king, our priest, our feudal lord – how AI is taking us back to the dark ages
Since the Enlightenment, we’ve been making our own decisions. But now AI may be about to change that
It is pretty terrifying, this steady pressure to outsource our reasoning and decision-making…
Hundreds of residents signed up for FEMA buyouts after Helene. Not one has been approved.
Some of the homeowners seeking help are still paying mortgages on homes that are no longer livable.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2025/12/26/fema-buyouts-north-carolina-hurricane-helene/
It had been 438 days since Hurricane Helene’s floodwaters wrecked her home’s foundation, inundated the first floor, destroyed the septic system and swallowed their belongings. Her mortgage company agreed to pause her payments for a year, but now seemed to be losing patience over the $270,000 she still owed on a house no longer safe to live in.
“I’ve never missed a payment in my whole life,” said Clark, a neonatal nurse at a nearby hospital. “Here now, at 42 years old, I’m having to consider foreclosing.”
More than 800 storm victims around Helene-battered western North Carolina have applied under FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. State officials vetted applications and began sending them up the chain to FEMA as far back as February. As of Dec. 15, they had sent nearly 600 buyout requests to Washington, with more likely to follow.
So far, they say, not a single approval has come through.
North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein has called the paralysis “absolutely unacceptable,” and has pushed for answers. Earlier this month, he wrote to FEMA’s acting administrator, detailing the startling number of applications that “remain without a final decision.”
“Further delay of these approvals,” he wrote, “keeps communities and families in limbo, in some cases paying expenses on homes they cannot live in while they await word from FEMA.”
FEMA did not comment on questions about the program.
The cheque is in the mail….just got to process it all and finish the new addition White House Ball Room for the gala event to celebrate the terrific achievements….
Any hoot, more “extreme weather” (as the Washington Post headlines put it” coming in 2026 with more muddling by the clever ape-like two legged fools
Don’t know how much more of this cluster fck train wreak I can stomach…
Vince, what an absolute nightmare. Delayed compensation pay-outs from both government agencies and insurance companies seems very common, unfortunately, and not exclusive to the US.
I recall a similar situation in Vermont with FEMA:
“After historic flooding swept through Vermont in 2023 and 2024, hundreds of property owners applied for buyouts to try and get compensated for homes and businesses they would likely struggle to sell. Vanishingly few have happened yet.”
https://www.governing.com/finance/two-years-later-vermont-flood-victims-still-wait-on-federal-assistance
Another great one from Lyle Lewis.
“A calmer way forward”
About “a three-day eco-wellness retreat titled “Harmony: Reimagining Our DNA for a Regenerative Tomorrow”
😂
https://open.substack.com/pub/lylel/p/a-calmer-way-forward
Cassandra, nice. 😂 I didn’t know Lyle had such a splendid line in sardonic humour.
Heads up to all . Many here follow Quark from Spain . Here is his latest post . Go to the comments section and read about the silver ” Lehman Moment ” on Monday . Will silver bankrupt Tesla ? Use translator .
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2025/12/cuando-el-sistema-llega-su-fin-la.html
Regarding Precious Metals [PMs] for the common man/woman: “If you cannot hold it–>you do not own it!”
When fiat currencies become worthless, it will be cheaper to wipe your ass with fiat. At some future time, you will save your precious toilet paper for barter.
Also, a tank of propane can be perfectly fine after sixty years of proper storage. It can directly power a propane refrigerator, a hot water heater, BBQ, or a cookstove/oven.
Post-Collapse, if you having been living rough for ten years: you will be glad to trade PMs for cold ice cream or cold beer, a luxurious hot shower/bath, slow-cooked BBQ ribs or ribeye, and chocolate cake. Iced rye whiskey will melt your brain.
You will think you have died and gone to heaven!
From Russia with Love . Starring Vladimir Putin .😂
“The government continues to work to maintain stability in the domestic fuel market. A new decree extends the temporary ban on the export of motor gasoline from the country until February 28, 2026. This ban will apply to all exporters, including direct producers.
Another decree extends the ban on the export of diesel fuel, as well as marine fuel and other gas oils, including those purchased on the exchange, until February 28, 2026. This ban will not apply to direct producers of petroleum products.”
Did you fill your tank up lately ?
You leave with little choice but to link to the terrific Matt Munro classic, Ravi:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWMHmTdImSE&list=RDOWMHmTdImSE&start_radio=1
I don’t think the continuation of the export ban will change much, except keeping upward pressure on refined fuel prices.
https://www.aol.com/articles/bankruptcies-exploding-across-economy-hitting-110001815.html
Bankruptcies are exploding across the economy, hitting small businesses and households. Few industries are immune.
From corporate giants to mom-and-pop shops, bankruptcies are piling up across the US this year.
Large corporate bankruptcies have hit their highest level in 15 years.
“Bankruptcies seem to be kind of all over the place,” one veteran bankruptcy attorney said.
…Unlike past downturns, this wave of bankruptcies appears to be hitting nearly every corner of the economy. It’s sweeping across a range of sectors in what one veteran bankruptcy attorney described as a strikingly “unusual” pattern….
…Stark said that he can’t pinpoint a CLEAR CAUSE for the “broad smattering of industries” now in bankruptcy, but he called it “unusual” in his 30 years of experience and “shockingly so.”…
…In addition to big and small businesses, individual bankruptcies have also increased amid rising costs.
—————————————————-
ME: Gee, perhaps a CLEAR ROOT CAUSE of Overshoot & Collapse and ever-shrinking ERoEI causing reduced Net Energy Surplus/Capita which leads to increased difficulties in:
pumping water from depleting aquifers, harvesting crops from depleting topsoil, mining minerals from ever deeper depleting mines, reduced ability to manufacture fertilizers, less funds for education & healthcare & pensions, less ability to restore habitats, ever less ability to reduce the extinction rate, less ability to even fix the potholes, less ability to have discretionary items as shrinking buying power forces all purchases towards the bare necessities.
Again, think of the aging cheetah with arthritis & cataracts looking for anything to scavenge–> that is our global economy.
Money WILL NOT refill aquifers & mines & oilwells & topsoil & empty habitats & potholes.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Severe drought linked to the decline of the hobbits 61,000 years ago
An international team of scientists, including the University of Wollongong (UOW), has found compelling evidence that a changing climate played a role in the extinction of the early human species Homo floresiensis, also known as “hobbits.” Their research, published in Communications Earth & Environment, reveals the hobbits abandoned Liang Bua—a cave they had occupied for around 140,000 years—during a drought that lasted for thousands of years…
https://phys.org/news/2025-12-severe-drought-linked-decline-hobbits.html
According to this study: American Gen Z seeks safety above all other concerns.
https://theconversation.com/gen-z-seeks-safety-above-all-else-as-the-generation-grows-up-amid-constant-crisis-and-existential-threat-245455
…Historical events have long been shown to shape the worldview of entire generations.
For instance, the Great Depression primarily impacted the daily lives of the Silent Generation, those born between 1928 and 1945. Moreover, its long-term effects on financial attitudes and security concerns echoed into the Baby Boomer generation, influencing how those born between 1946 and 1964 approached money, stability and risk throughout their lives.
Similarly, today’s adolescents, growing up amid a series of compounded global crises, will likely carry the imprint of this period of heightened fear and uncertainty well into adulthood. This formative experience could shape their mental health, decision-making and even their collective identity and values for decades to come….
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ME: So perhaps this safety desire explains why so few youngsters are not out protesting in public or even protesting on-line today. Recall that not long ago that Greta Thunberg could rouse thousands to leave their individual schools to march. Then students protesting for Gaza got harassed and/or kicked out of school. Now many cannot find employment so mental exhaustion and lack of funds greatly reduces the zeal to protest.
Do these Zers now wish to just safely hunker down as Overshoot & Collapse starts to ruthlessly reap heads for what previous generations have done to decimate our planet? Perhaps they instinctively understand that the future belongs to the young so keeping a low profile is the best way to duck the swinging scythe of the Grim Reaper? Reaching Carrying Capacity will reduce us by billions, maybe Gen Z hopes to somehow squeeze some small numbers thru the Bottleneck this century.
Will the quiet & meek inherit the Earth? Time will tell…
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
The Caatinga in the north-east has been transformed by the heating climate in just a generation and could become the country’s first desert
By Constance Malleret in Macururé, Bahia. Photographs by Ian Cheibub
Macururé and four neighbouring municipalities in northern Bahia state are facing a disturbing new climate reality. In 2023, researchers found that a 5,700 sq km area in Brazil’s semi-arid north-east could be classified as an arid region – the first in the country – a change brought on by decreased rainfall and higher temperatures over a sustained period.
…..”7previously had an arid zone [in Brazil],” says Ana Martins do Amaral Cunha, a researcher at the national centre for monitoring and warning on natural disasters (Cemaden), and one of the study’s authors. “It’s an area in which the climate changed, from semi-arid to arid. That means it got hotter and drier,” she says.
“We know that the increase in temperatures is linked to climate change, to anthropogenic global warming, that is to say, the emission of greenhouse gases,” she adds.
We used to grow corn, beans, potatoes, everything,” Maia says. “Now, when you plant something, it dies.”
“Macururé and the surrounding towns are among the poorest in Bahia. The decline of subsistence agriculture means the population must spend more on food and animal feed.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/dec/28/brazil-first-arid-zone-stark-warning-for-country
Yes, we are changing the hydrologic cycle on the entire plane
I wrote much about NPK fertilizers way back in the 2000s on TheOilDrum.com, especially how phosphorus [P] is a special element that cannot be substituted, must be mined, then beneficiated [with much sulfuric acid] to chemically activate into farm ready form.
If you think the global supply chain for oil is precarious as Jeffrey Brown’s Export Land Model suggests, then the Phosphorus Export Model will really make the hair on your neck stand up.
If the US is militarily interested in Venezuela & Nigeria for oil, military control of Morocco’s 70% of P reserves will allow nearly total of who eats, and who doesn’t.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-2026-phosphorus-shortage-could-end-70-years-of-cheap-food/ar-AA1SPGFj?ocid=BingNewsSerp
Just five countries control roughly 85 percent of the world’s remaining high-grade phosphate rock reserves: Morocco, China, Algeria, Syria, and South Africa. Morocco alone sits on a staggering treasure – around 70 percent of the world’s known phosphate rock reserves, totaling over 50 billion metric tons.
Let’s be real: the warning signs are already flashing red. Since 2020, geopolitical disputes, trade wars, and escalating fuel prices have driven sharp increases in phosphorus commodity prices, contributing to the current food crisis.
Since 2020, prices of both phosphate rock and fertilizer peaked at more than 400 percent above 2020 levels. This isn’t speculation – it’s happening now….
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ME: Have you hugged a bag of NPK fertilizer today? Another essential item for future barter.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Severe drought linked to the decline of the hobbits 61,000 years ago
https://phys.org/news/2025-12-severe-drought-linked-decline-hobbits.html
Interesting to think of a hobbit species occupying the same cave for 5600 generations. Assuming a generation is 25 years. I wonder what they were up to.
Read this, and weep:
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/2025-the-year-of-peak-everything
Since so many things are going wrong in the few decades ahead:
https://www.beroeinc.com/resource-centre/insights/looming-sulfur-shortage-hidden-risk-global-supply-chains-across-industries/
The looming sulfur shortage: A hidden risk for global supply chains across industries
Elemental sulfur, a key component in industrial chemistry, is likely to face a supply crisis that could severely impact multiple major global industries. Over 85% of sulfur is converted into sulfuric acid, vital for applications ranging from fertilizer production to advanced manufacturing. Sulfuric acid’s multifaceted applications, economic efficiency, and pivotal role across critical industries affirm its irreplaceable status in the global market. As decarbonization efforts and declining oil production threaten traditional sulfur sources, a global supply-demand imbalance looms…..