Huge thanks to this month’s donor, who wishes to remain anonymous but has asked me to post a link to this poem by their friend, Arthur L Wood. I’m no great shakes when it comes to literary criticism but I was moved by its tenderness and honesty, and heartily recommend giving it a listen.
“Here’s an update on Arctic sea-ice extent, which is still at a record low for the date, about 180,000 square kilometers below the previous record daily low set just last year.
“This isn’t going to end well.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1999474469551919560
“Arctic climate rankings are in for November 2025: zacklabe.com/archive-2025/. A historic boreal fall for sea ice conditions (and not in a good way).”
[Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3m7t3ab4aa22a
“Some Arctic warming ‘irreversible’ even if we cut atmospheric CO2.
“The Arctic will retain about 1.5°C of warming even if the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere returns to pre-industrial levels and the planet as a whole cools. The region is also predicted to retain about 0.1 millimetres per day of excess precipitation, regardless of whether we deploy large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) projects.”
“Hundreds of iceberg earthquakes detected at the crumbling end of Antarctica’s Doomsday Glacier.
“…the most prolific period of glacial earthquakes at Thwaites, between 2018 and 2020, coincides with a period of accelerated flow of the glacier’s ice tongue towards the sea. The ice-tongue speed-up period was independently confirmed by satellite observations.”
“Polar Bears in Warmest Greenland Are Rewriting Their DNA.
“New research published in Mobile DNA reveals these bears are doing something remarkable at the molecular level: they appear to be rapidly rewriting sections of their own genetic code in response to rising temperatures… This represents the first statistically significant link between warming temperatures and genome-level changes in a wild mammal population.”
https://scienceblog.com/polar-bears-in-warmest-greenland-are-rewriting-their-dna/
“November 2025 observed more anomalous warmth across the entire Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The saturated red color indicates all of these areas were at least 5°C above the 1981-2010 average.
“Data from ERA5.” [Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3m7ps3pvdks2n
“December 2025 has already broken more records (monthly of individual stations) than any full month in history with nearly every single country and territory having broken at least one monthly record (some have broken hundreds).”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1999325416943947999
“Storm Bram breaks 11 high temperature records in Ireland…
“Storm Bram brought unseasonal warmth to December this week as wind and rain rattled much of Ireland. Met Éireann recorded especially high temperatures as the storm raged, breaking [monthly] heat records in 11 different weather stations.”
https://extra.ie/2025/12/11/news/storm-bram-high-temperature-records
“Netherlands must brace for far more extreme weather, says Dutch meteorological institute…
“Experts sketch out scenarios ranging from intense heatwaves to runaway wildfires and the remnants of hurricanes sweeping across the country. By mapping these risks, they aim to help the government take timely action to make the country more resilient.”
“Hundreds of storks found dead near Madrid amid wider bird flu surge…
“The outbreaks are part of an unprecedented surge in bird flu cases across Europe this season, with thousands of wild bird cases reported in 29 countries, according to the European Food Safety Authority.”
“Portugal’s Wine Production Plunges 20% to Decade Low as Extreme Weather Hits Agriculture…
“These figures reflect how weather extremes and disease outbreaks have shaped Portugal’s agricultural landscape this year, affecting both crop yields and livestock numbers while influencing market prices at home and abroad.”
“Historic Santorini vineyards struggle against climate change and tourism…
“Historic estimates suggest that Santorini once had 3,000-4,000ha under vine. Today, around 1,000ha remains, much of it fragmented into small family holdings. Over the last three vintages, drought and heat have pushed production to record lows.”
“Türkiye reports sharp decline in November rainfall across regions.
“Türkiye’s hydrological landscape showed significant stress in November as nationwide precipitation fell well below both historical norms and last year’s levels, according to the General Directorate of Meteorology’s 2025 November Area-Based Precipitation Report. The data highlights broad-based declines across all regions, with variability that underscores intensifying climate pressures.”
“Nearly 700 massive sinkholes consume Turkey farmland fueled by extreme drought…
“A recent assessment by Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority found 684 sinkholes across the Konya Plain, a key wheat-growing region often referred to as the country’s breadbasket. New drone video shows the deep holes breaking up the agricultural region.”
“RECORD HEAT IN CONGO:
“35.0C [95F] Today at Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo ties its record of highest temperature ever recorded in December.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/199955168345473062
“Flash floods cause chaos in Bukavu, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
“The floods caused severe damage across the area.”
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DSK1U98jLkE/
“Brutally hot night in SOUTH AFRICA – the highest night temperatures ever seen in the central western highlands 30/32C [89.6F] all night in Beaufort area.
“At dawn temperatures eased a bit but remained exceptional in some areas with Mins 20/25C at 500/1500m above sea level.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1999419439364866248
“Gang violence, thefts surge in post-cyclone Mayotte…
“Gang violence is increasingly exasperating the people of Mayotte, who are still suffering daily from the consequences of Cyclone Chido. A year after the disaster, reconstruction on the island has barely begun.”
https://www.africanews.com/amp/2025/12/12/gang-violence-thefts-surge-in-post-cyclone-mayotte/
“Climate crisis driving new disease threats in Africa…
““When rains come too late, not at all or too intensely, harvests fail. Hunger rises. Prolonged hunger leads to malnutrition … making people more vulnerable to infectious and non-communicable diseases.””
“Somalia Faces Deepening Drought as Seasonal Rains Fail to Arrive…
“Large swathes of the country are experiencing severe water shortages, with pastoralist communities — who depend on their livestock for survival — hit hardest. Reports from multiple regions indicate widespread livestock deaths and increasing pressure on already scarce resources.”
https://shabellemedia.com/somalia-faces-deepening-drought-as-seasonal-rains-fail-to-arrive/
“Another insanely hot winter night in MIDDLE EAST:
“Minimum of 24.1C [75.4F] at Al Wakrah – second Hottest winter night ever recorded in QATAR (R 24.5 Umm Said). More of the same tomorrow: an absolutely crazy hot December.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1999053109738541472
“Flooding destroys few remaining possessions of Palestinians in Gaza.
““The tents are gone, the clothes are gone, our food is gone.” Displaced Palestinians in Gaza fled Israeli bombardment with what little they could carry. Those items are now waterlogged and destroyed by flooding, as one man in Deir el-Balah told Al Jazeera’s Ibrahim al-Khalili.”
“Dozens rescued in severe flooding as Storm Byron wreaks havoc on Israel.
“14 Israelis rescued from vehicles across Yavne • Two students injured as tree collapses in Rishon Lezion • Netanya man found dead with severe hypothermia • 19-year-old from Bnei Brak still missing.”
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-879990
“Iraq Water Crisis: Deadly Floods Sweep Northern Iraq, South Faces Water Crisis.
“Northern Iraq has been struck by deadly floods, leaving widespread destruction and forcing thousands to evacuate. Meanwhile, the southern region is grappling with an escalating water crisis, as shortages intensify and communities struggle to access clean water.”
I recommend checking out this video footage of the flooding east of Baghdad to get a sense of the scale:
https://x.com/rashidalmethen/status/1999155987375174112
“CENTRAL ASIA INSANE WARM NIGHT – MINIMUMS up to 19C [66.2F] In Uzbekistan In the Mountains like a summer night…
“TAJIKISTAN HOTTEST WINTER NIGHT EVER: 14.8 Isambaj, 14 Parkhar, 12.2 Kurgan Tjube; KAZAKHSTAN: Max. 15.2 Kamenskoe 1320m – they should all be freezing!“
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1999508005084070256
“Sri Lanka: Cyclone aftermath disrupts economic recovery…
“The UNDP reported 720,000 buildings were affected by the flooding, with over 16,000 kilometers (about 10,000 miles) of roads submerged, and over 270 kilometers of railway track damaged. Over 480 bridges were affected in the floods.”
https://www.dw.com/en/sri-lanka-cyclone-aftermath-disrupts-economic-recovery/a-75130223
“Exceptional warm day in EAST ASIA – temperatures which had nothing to do with winter up to:
“31.3 [88.3F] TAIWAN; 30.0 CHINA; 29.6 HONG KONG; 26 JAPAN; 21.4 SOUTH KOREA. Next days a cold front will bring a quick cooling followed by another exceptional warm spell with air coming from Middle East.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1999092505430941781
“Indonesia floods were ‘extinction level’ disturbance for world’s rarest ape…
“Between 33 and 54 critically endangered Tapanuli orangutans (Pongo tapanuliensis) are estimated to have been killed in widespread floods and landslides after more than 1,000mm [40 inches] of rain fell over just four days in North Sumatra province.”
“Floods in Karangasem, Bali: Cars Swept Away, Dozens of Houses Affected.
“Floods hit several areas in the Manggis District, Karangasem Regency, Bali, on Thursday (December 11). The flooding in the Manggis District also went viral on social media. A video circulating showed a resident’s car being swept away by the floodwaters.”
“Severe heatwave cancels event, closes popular abalone fishing spot as season begins [Western Australia]…
“The WA Parks and Wildlife Service closed Penguin Island Conservation Park, one of the areas in which abalone fishing is permitted, on Friday, citing hot temperatures. The 2025/26 abalone fishing season began on Saturday morning.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-13/severe-heatwave-as-wa-abalone-season-begins/106139888
“Australia bushfires could be most dangerous since ‘black summer’.
“Bushfires have been ravaging Australia, with more than 50 burning throughout New South Wales, destroying homes and causing at least one death. Nine blazes remained out of control on Monday as flames ripped through homes and critical infrastructure.”
“Drought-hit Chilean region struggles with limited authority on water infrastructure.
“Chile’s Valparaíso region, one of the hardest hit by the drought that has affected the country for over a decade, has invested 69.2 billion (bn) pesos (US$75.7 million) since 2021 in water infrastructure. However, the local government still has limited authority when it comes to planning such works…”
“Floods force the evacuation of hospital 20 patients in northern Paraguay.
“A storm that hit the Paraguayan town of Santa Rosa de Aguaray, in the department of San Pedro (north), on Friday forced the evacuation, by land and air, of 20 patients confined in the regional hospital, which was affected by flooding due to the intense rains, said medical and government sources.”
“Extreme Weather Plunges Brazil’s Largest City Into Darkness.
“A worsening drought and strong winds across São Paulo are straining the country’s power supply, blacking out hundreds of thousands of Brazilian households and slowing commerce in South America’s largest economy… As of Thursday, about 1.3 million utility clients still lacked electricity in the metropolitan region of São Paulo…”
“The Amazon’s lakes are heating up at ‘alarming’ rate, research finds…
““You can’t even put a finger in the water. … It is so hot that your natural instinct is to withdraw your hand,” lead author Ayan Fleischmann, a researcher at the Brazil-based Instituto Mamirauá, told Mongabay by phone. “The temperature is beyond the tolerance limit for most Amazonian aquatic animals.””
“Thousands of animal species are permanently losing their habitats…
“Their results point to synergistic effects, combined harm bigger than each threat alone, when heat strikes places altered for people… Hotter and more built-up conditions overlapped most clearly in the Sahel, parts of the Middle East, and Brazil.”
https://www.earth.com/news/thousands-of-animal-species-wildlife-losing-habitats-due-to-rising-heat/
“‘Hot mess,’ Salt Lake City experiencing its warmest December in city history.
“Yes, it’s only 11 days into the month, but we are currently on track to see one of the warmest Decembers on record. In fact, as of Thursday, if you look at the average temperature of each day this month, the current season is currently on top of the rankings.”
“Ancient lake from ice age comes back to life in Death Valley after record rainfall.
“Between 128,000 and 186,000 years ago, when ice covered the Sierra Nevada, a lake 100 miles long and 600 feet deep sat in eastern California in what is now the Mojave Desert… a November of record rainfall has brought the ancient lake, known as Lake Manly, back to life.”
“Historic rains and flooding trigger dramatic rescues in Washington state…
“Authorities have yet to estimate the costs, but photos and videos show widespread damage, with entire communities or neighborhoods flooded around western and central Washington. Officials have conducted dozens of water rescues, debris and mudslides have closed highways, and raging torrents have washed out roads and bridges.”
“Another strong atmospheric river is forecast to move onshore over British Columbia & the Pacific Northwest on Sun 14 Dec, shifting southward along the US West Coast and into N. California during the beginning of next week.
“Read more here in our latest AR Outlook:”
https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-ar-update-12-december-2025-outlook/
“A casual reminder: humans have increased atmospheric CO2 from about 270 ppm pre-industrial to about 435 ppm today, an increase of about 165 ppm.
“That’s about the same increase as having 1650 people simultaneously urinating 250 ml (~1 cup) into an olympic sized swimming pool.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1999565330226753776
“10 years after Paris: as far as the recent past is any indication of the future, I don’t expect we will see the 3-year average going down below +1.5°C much ever again.” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1999241442741645385
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
The tipping point people have decided, but with only low confidence, that loss of Barents sea ice is now not a tipping point. Ice has been very slow to form there this year, and what small amount there is might soon disappear given the GFS forecast of above freezing temperatures over the sea there next week. Even if there is no hysteresis, which given the New Scientist article you cite above seems unlikely, there definitely appears to be a phase change from fresher and cool water with an Arctic like ecology to higher sea water salinity and temperatures like the northern Atlantic, and presumably a similar change in the biome that can be supported. I think if the area does go fully ice free through the winter it’s going to have a noticeable accelerating effect on the warming throughout the Arctic and probably on the AMOC slowdown. Whether there really is a tipping point is a bit irrelevant because the Arctic is never going to cool down within a meaningful timeframe to find out how much additional sub cooling, if any, might be required to return to the Arctic type environment.
Thanks, George. Very interesting. FWIW, I agree. It seems that the East Siberian Sea somewhat bucked the trend with an early re-freeze, making shipping challenging:
“…Baltic departures increased, resulting in an estimated ~1.9 million tons of crude oil moved eastward via the NSR. This is especially relevant for Norway as Baltic tankers travel up the Norwegian coastline on their way to the Arctic…
“[However] persistent ice in the East Siberian Sea limited routing options for deep-draft vessels. “The open-water period lasted no more than two weeks, occurring at the end of September and the beginning of October,” the CHNL report highlights. Similarly, the onset of winter ice came early this year.”
https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/northern-sea-route-2025-season-concludes-stable-transit-traffic-amid-challenging-ice-conditions
China planted 78 billion trees.
It backfired.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a69638301/china-reforesting-changed-hydrology/
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Wow. Maybe we don’t know more than Mother Nature?
Start digging tunnels!
Thanks, Bob. You can totally see the reasoning behind the project, but of course you are gambling with the law of unintended consequences when you meddle with nature’s subtle complexities. Reminded me of this:
“Dramatic cuts in China’s air pollution drove surge in global warming…
“A recent surge in the rate of global warming has been largely driven by China’s efforts to reduce air pollution, raising questions about how air quality regulations are influencing the climate and whether we fully understand the impact of removing aerosols from the atmosphere.”
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2474067-dramatic-cuts-in-chinas-air-pollution-drove-surge-in-global-warming/
Today’s thread illustrates clearly how far down the road we are to making this planet unlivable for most of us creatures.
Very far.
It’s a bitter pill to swallow to realize (for the thousandth time) how toxic my own species is.
I know, Cassandra. The orangutans got me. 😥
A massive solar storm like Carrington Event is probably the best hope at this point. Knocking out power and then peeps living with no refrigeration for year or so would level out the class strata and thin out the herd.
Certainly would thin out the herd with no one to keep an eye on the nuclear power stations, path labs, sewage treatment plants etc.
The good thing about an “act of God” type black swan bringing down civilisation is that it would be easy for people to understand what had gone wrong and it would be palpably no one’s fault, so less anger and scapegoating.
A David Korowicz-type collapse with a financial trigger is going to leave people confused and enraged.
Yes, perhaps less anger and scapegoating. But still quite a bit I think. Elon Musk and his ilk perhaps would do very well if they woke up tomorrow morning without refrigeration, transportation or funds to pay their security entourage. There’s a large cohort of humanity that wouldn’t last a fortnight. Maybe I’ll write some FanFic and do a Pod
**WOULDN’T do very well…. obviously
We just finished week one of thisc insane Pineapple Express week 2 with more flooding coming to the area starts on Sunday.
https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/floodwaters-recede-burlington-damage/281-baef903f-b671-400a-95fe-4618f0adba25
Here some news stories its all over YouTube and the news.
I was up around Nooksack River in 2021 when last big flood occurred. Was phenomenally interesting to see. I went for an area recon and got stuck in Abbotsford BC for a few days.
Thanks, Heather. Hope you survive the dousing.
The Snohomish River log-jam in your clip made me think of the catastrophic floods in Sumatra. I’m assuming the logging is less rampant and unregulated in Washington State than in Indonesia, but cutting down a lot of trees is still going to impact the landscape’s natural ability to manage water-flow.
The World’s August oil production increased by 405 kb/d to 85,244 kb/d, a new World Peak Oil All Time High . If the world is so f…ed up on this peak of energy what will happen on the decline.
Copy/ paste POB .
It’s still not much more than the Nov 2018 peak (crude oil + condensate) of 84,593, with other (less energy dense) liquid fuels taking up the slack.
Here’s the link Ravi’s mentioning:
https://peakoilbarrel.com/record-august-world-oil-production/
Net energy has likely declined. The global EROEI for crude plus condensate is generally expected to have declined between 2018 and 2025, primarily due to the increasing reliance on more energy-intensive extraction methods for unconventional resources.
Probably the most meaningful measurement (i.e. that correlates best with financial impacts) is net per capita liquid fuel energy, which peaked in the 80’s with a secondary peak around 2005 to 2007 (although it’s difficult to calculate it very accurately).
This is from Quark. I suppose everything gets sorted out at some point: If true the new peak didn’t last long. Excess supply pretty much disappeared as well:
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2025/12/un-repaso-al-exceso-de-petroleo-segun.html
What the November report described as a 440,000 b/d drop in supply in October (recalling the IEA’s statement, ” The relentless increase in global oil supply briefly reversed course in October, falling by 440,000 b/d month-on-month to 108.2 mb/d”) has transformed into a substantially larger amount according to the December comment (” Global oil supply fell 610,000 b/d in November, extending the decline from September’s record low of 109 mb/d by 1.5 mb/d.”).
Sorry that should be excess storage, not excess supply.
Peak oil is peak food.
Peak food is peak people,
Add in some climate change,
People steal before they starve,
You get the picture.
Survivalist,
I am not an agriculture scientist. But, I am sceptical about the idea that peak oil has to mean peak food. I know that fossil fuels are important inputs for modern industrial agriculture. But I can imagine that peak oil wouild also mean a lot of manufacturing and service workers become jobless which would free them up for agricultural work of the type that if I recall correctly is refered to as Permacultural. Also people can eat a lot less corn feed cattle and pigs, shifting to poltury and rabbits.
But I bet that will not happen. At least it will not happen in North America and probably not Europe. In Asia it might happen. And if only a few people start doing it as you said people are going to steal before they starve. And how many people do those who have food want to kill to protect their food supply?
And on top of that I have a lot of doubt that even permaculture can succeed in the hostile enviromental conditions that await us in the comming decades.
The Haber-Bosch process was successfully developed for industrial scale nitrogen production in 1910. Due to its dramatic impact on the human ability to produce plant nutrients the process served as the detonator of the human population explosion, enabling the global population to increase from 1.6 billion in 1900 to today’s more than 8 billion. Nearly 80% of the nitrogen found in human tissues today originated from the Haber-Bosch process. The green revolution increased deployment of technologies including fossil fuel based pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers, as well as new breeds of high yield crops that greatly increased global food production. Net global crude plus condensate production will soon to start to decline. Peak oil is peak food. Peak food is peak people.
Ok
Facebook has utility in that you can surveil who amongst your fiends and past/current coworkers is a complete fucking moron. I know a guy, apparently, who owns to have been looking for a sign from God and then thinking he got it because he bumped into a guy from church in a nearby tourist town. I know another guy, apparently, whose biggest concern about a magnetic pole reversal is all the world’s water in the oceans and lakes sloshing around. So don’t be standing near a lake when that happens!
Dumb and fuck. I don’t know what to make of that. I surely don’t.
LOL. My advice: stay clear of people as much as you can. 🤪
At least I know whose party invitations to decline. What a bunch of lunatics.
Can you imagine someone believing that when the magnetic poles reverse Buffalo NY will be washed out by the Great Lakes all sloshing about.
We’re due for a famine.
If you need a doom fix this Sunday here’s an excellent one from Lyle Lewis.
HELL IS HERE: What Greenwashed Reveals About the Truth We’re Not Allowed to Say
Why the most taboo words in environmentalism are “overpopulation” and “less.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/lylel/p/hell-is-here-what-greenwashed-reveals
Anti-consumerism counterculture is the way to go. All the dweebs lining up for the latest new phone every 2 years max. are a disease.
The doughnut economy . This is a new one . 7 min read ;
https://www.transformatise.com/2025/12/how-the-first-doughnut-economy-could-spark-a-global-revolution/
Somebody’s gonna put a shiny new wrap on Agrarian Communism; like “The Future is Rural” but with bayonets.
Figure 1 here is interesting re global net energy
https://www.issuesofsustainability.org/helpndoc-content/EnergyProductionofOilGasProjecte.html