Many thanks to my October donor, Cassandra, who suggests this month listening daily to Adagio for Strings (one of the west’s most famous concert pieces) while you read the C & E posts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQsgE0L450 (If you use the Brave browser it can play in the background even when not on that page, plus no ads!).
“Global use of coal hit record high in 2024…
“The report painted a grim picture of the world’s chances of avoiding increasingly severe impacts from the climate crisis. Countries are falling behind the targets they have set for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which have continued to rise, albeit at a lower rate than before.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/22/global-use-of-coal-hit-record-high-in-2024
“No major banks have yet committed to stop funding new oil, gas and coal, research finds…
“Most banks that have recently updated their climate policies have weakened them, according to the research by the TPI Global Climate Transition Centre (TPI) at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).”
“Catastrophe Bonds’ Huge Market Gains Put Reinsurers on Backfoot…
“Industry losses tied to extreme weather events are set to exceed $150 billion this year, which is well above the historical average, according to risk modeler Verisk. Since 2023, meanwhile, the market for so-called cat bonds has grown by well over 50% to $55 billion, estimates provided by insurance broker Aon Plc show.”
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2025/10/21/844553.htm
“China’s Rare Earth Magnets Exports Slump as Market Fears Crunch…
“The drop in September exports could deepen going forward, after China earlier in October expanded the list of rare earth elements under export control and added curbs on manufactured products that have used Chinese refining and magnet-making technology, in a move that further tightens China’s grip on the critical materials market.”
“Nexperia crisis: how US-China tensions disrupt a global chip supply chain…
“The ongoing dispute between China and the Netherlands over chipmaker Nexperia has highlighted how geopolitical tensions can disrupt an otherwise smooth global supply chain, according to analysts.”
“US-China now in a ‘very different kind of trade war’, experts warn…
“…Beijing seems to be prepared to “decouple” from the US more than ever, a significant change in mentality, as, in the past, the standard response to the idea was that it would be a “lose-lose” situation for both countries, Liang told Al Jazeera.”
“US offers nuclear energy companies access to weapons-grade plutonium.
“The US has offered energy companies access to nuclear waste that they can convert into fuel for advanced reactors in an attempt to break Russia’s stranglehold over uranium supply chains.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2fbbc621-405e-4a29-850c-f0079b116216
“The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has warned recent events in US private credit markets have worrying echoes of the sub-prime mortgage crisis that kicked off the global financial crash of 2008…
“When a mortgage-lending frenzy ended in a housing market bust in the US from summer 2007, it kicked off a wave of financial turmoil.”
“Bad debt ‘cockroaches’ signal new threats to the global economy…
“Evidence is mounting that we are approaching danger again, with revelations of bad debt exposure for regional and investment banks as a consequence of two bankruptcies.”
“Bubble-talk is breaking out everywhere…
“…bubble talk has broken confinement. Investors are already talking about what they may be able to salvage from it when it bursts. And still, markets are humming along just fine. This is not complacency, as such. That implies a lack of awareness about the horrors lurking in the darkness. It is more of an explicit decision to ignore the obvious potential downsides and carry on regardless.”
https://www.ft.com/content/ce8bc257-5f06-4005-bd36-b094a9b91938
“Stock market concentration has reached 1800s levels:
“Information Technology & Communications stocks now reflect a record 45% of total US market cap. This percentage has DOUBLED over the last 10 years. Tech is now larger than Energy & Materials, which together accounted for 41% of the market at their 1950s peak.
“The last time any industry had such dominance was the transport sector in the 1880s. In other words, the market is the least diversified in ~140 years.” [Kobeissi Letter]
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1980622702319743239
“Americans can’t afford their cars any more and Wall Street is worried.
“High levels of auto loan delinquencies are a clear sign of stress among lower and middle income households, says Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics… “That should send off alarm bells,” says Zandi – particularly considering unemployment is still relatively low at 4.3pc.”
“States across the US warn millions will lose food stamp benefits in a week due to government shutdown.
“Roughly 42 million low-income Americans who receive Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program benefits, also known as SNAP, will likely see their aid disrupted next month if Congress does not resolve its budget stalemate.”
“Fears of heat-rationing for millions in US as shutdown delays energy aid…
“Millions of Americans face having to ration heating this winter as the US federal government shutdown and mass layoffs by the Trump administration cause unprecedented delays in getting energy assistance aid to low-income households, a group that helps people pay energy bills has warned.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/21/us-shutdown-energy-aid-bills
“Infectious diseases are killing deer and risking rural US economies: ‘You smell the dead everywhere’…
“Chronic wasting disease (CWD) and epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD) are killing wild deer in greater numbers in dozens of rural counties across the midwest that depend on the industry.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/21/deer-diseases-rural-economies
“‘Widow-Maker’ Trade Becomes World Beater as Japan Bonds Sink…
“Japan’s 30-year bond yields hit an all-time high this month. An S&P gauge of futures linked to the bonds has dropped around 2% this year. The selloff has become so bad that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has labeled Japan “a net exporter of bearish shocks” in the global debt market.”
“Why thousands are queuing for hours in central Sydney to buy gold…
“AMP’s chief economist, Shane Oliver, has been warning for two weeks that exploding queues could be a sign the market is becoming speculative and vulnerable to a correction. Since then the queues continued to grow and the price kept soaring, but he has stood by that warning.”
“Hundreds of anti-immigrant protesters burn vehicle, attack police in Dublin.
“At least 1,000 protesters have clashed with police in southwest Dublin, throwing bottles and launching fireworks at authorities during anti-immigration demonstrations sparked by allegations of an attack on a young girl.”
“Highest September borrowing since 2020 and debt interest payments surge ahead of budget [UK].
“The extended build-up has been dominated by talk of which taxes are to rise in order to restore headroom against the rules Rachel Reeves has set herself amid talk of a black hole of up to £30bn.”
“Debt warning as homeowners juggle multiple credit cards [UK]…
“Ryan McGrath, director of second charge mortgages, said: “Homeowners are increasingly turning to short-term credit like multiple credit cards and overdrafts to fund major purchases, but while these options may offer convenience, they often come with high interest rates, fees and can lead to long-term financial strain when minimum payments aren’t met.”
“French debt is not the only ticking time bomb.
“France’s inability to get its public finances in order has already drawn increasing concern. As one of the pillars of the European Union and the euro area, France faces a crisis that would make Greece’s troubles seem like a minor stumble.”
https://www.omfif.org/2025/10/french-debt-is-not-the-only-ticking-time-bomb/
“ECB’s Lane flags dollar risk for banks amid tariff turmoil.
“Euro zone banks may come under pressure if U.S. dollar funding – the lifeblood of financial markets – were to dry up, the European Central Bank’s chief economist Philip Lane said on Tuesday amid concern over U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ecbs-lane-warns-dollar-risk-banks-2025-10-21/
“Russian bombardment plunges hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians into blackout.
“Russian attacks killed four people and left hundreds of thousands without power and many without water in Ukraine’s Chernihiv region on Tuesday, Moscow’s latest salvo in a campaign to break its neighbour’s energy system ahead of winter.”
“Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump says he did not want ‘wasted’ meeting with Putin after talks cancelled…
“The President said preparatory talks between senior US and Russian officials showed that the gap between the two countries was too large to begin negotiations over ending the conflict.”
“Russian Regions Face Deepening Budget Crisis as Reserves Run Dry.
“Russia’s regions are facing a looming fiscal crisis as falling tax revenues and mounting expenses have forced local governments to exhaust nearly all their financial reserves, according to data reviewed by the Expert RA ratings agency.”
“Russia’s central bank sees mysterious $13.6 bln foreign currency surge…
“Susin suggested this could be Rosneft’s five-year advance, consistent with previous payments in 2015 and 2020. Between 2013 and 2015, the oil giant received similar advances from CNPC, totaling $35 billion.”
https://tvpworld.com/89591943/russian-banks-record-136-billion-spike-in-foreign-currency-holdings
“North Korea test-fires multiple ballistic missiles as APEC summit nears…
“The launch of missiles on Wednesday morning comes a week before Chinese President Xi Jinping, United States President Donald Trump, and other world leaders gather in the South Korean city of Gyeongju for the APEC summit.”
“Thai Woes Deepen as BOT Warns of Third-Quarter GDP Contraction.
“Thailand’s central bank warned the tariff-hit country is suffering a deeper-than-expected downturn, with the economy having likely posted its first quarterly contraction since the end of 2022.”
“‘Illegal in own homes’: Afghan refugees caught in Pakistan-Taliban tensions…
““In my life, I visited Afghanistan only once, for two weeks in 2013. Apart from that, none of my family have ever gone back,” Meer told Al Jazeera. “How can I uproot everything when we were born here, lived here, married here, and buried our loved ones here?””
“Iran risks severe economic downturn, unrest as renewed UN sanctions bite.
“Three senior Iranian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Tehran believes the U.S., its Western allies and Israel are intensifying sanctions to fuel unrest in Iran and jeopardise the very existence of the Islamic Republic.”
“Gaza health crisis will last for ‘generations’, WHO chief warns…
“Asked about the situation on the ground, he said Gazans had experienced famine, “overwhelming” injuries, a collapsed healthcare system, and outbreaks of disease fuelled by the destruction of water and sanitation infrastructure.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnvezzdnmrno
“Somalia faces ‘food catastrophe’ after aid cuts.
“The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports that only 21 per cent of the $1.4 billion humanitarian response requested by NGOs for Somalia has been funded this year, approximately half the level of last year. Aid cuts have led to the closure of 170 clinics across Somalia…”
https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/somalia-famine-aid-cuts-climate-b2849786.html
“Egypt underscores Red Sea sovereignty amid Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions…
“Ethiopia, long landlocked since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, has openly pursued ambitions to reassert its presence on the Red Sea. Addis Ababa views current circumstances as favourable to achieving this goal, especially after completing and operating the Renaissance Dam, despite objections from downstream states Egypt and Sudan.”
https://thearabweekly.com/egypt-underscores-red-sea-sovereignty-amid-ethiopia-eritrea-tensions
“Civilians in Sudan’s al-Fashir cower from drones as siege worsens hunger.
“Residents of Sudan’s besieged city of al-Fashir have been taking refuge in underground bunkers to try to protect themselves from drones and shells after intensifying attacks on displacement shelters, clinics and mosques.”
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-871226
“Cameroon arrests at least 20 protesters as tensions escalate after presidential election.
““The government watches with concern acts of provocation and disorder carried out by some trouble makers,” he said, claiming that those arrested were being manipulated by some political actors.”
“Tensions mount as Alassane Ouattara seeks fourth term in Ivory Coast vote…
“All protests have now been banned by the government. In another sign of a crackdown on free speech and dissenting voices, leaders of two opposition parties alleged that security personnel ransacked their homes this month, without a search warrant.”
“Morocco military spending soars amid tensions with Algeria…
“Observers believe that poor relations with Algeria as well as security threats in the region have driven Morocco to pursue a strategy based on acquiring advanced weapons, increasing domestic military production, and reducing dependency on certain partners.”
https://www.newarab.com/news/morocco-military-spending-soars-amid-tensions-algeria
“Military briefing: the US naval and special forces build-up off Venezuela…
“…[the US] is showcasing a selection of assets designed for flexibility, keeping US President Donald Trump’s military options open should he wish to take action beyond blowing up small boats. “The capabilities that the US has do give policymakers choices,” said Seth Jones, a former US Special Operations Command official.”
https://www.ft.com/content/dc10dbae-14e6-4819-97ef-9df7cd1a2d01
“Javier Milei faces his most dangerous moment yet…
“Two years after his election as Argentina’s president, Javier Milei faces a make-or-break moment. A close-fought midterm election on October 26th could spell disaster for his radical reform programme if his party performs poorly in congressional ballots. Argentina’s currency, the peso, is overvalued and under heavy strain.”
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/10/21/javier-milei-faces-his-most-dangerous-moment-yet
“Brazil’s corporate bond market rocked by credit concerns.
“A series of blow-ups in Brazil’s corporate bond market has pushed up dollar borrowing costs across Latin America’s biggest economy, drawing parallels with the jitters in US credit following the collapse of auto parts group First Brands.”
https://www.ft.com/content/736b7858-6318-4bfe-a120-14e8953dacc1
“Peru’s interim president declares state of emergency after weeks of anti-government protests…
““The state of emergency approved by the council of ministers will take effect at midnight on Wednesday and will last for 30 days in metropolitan Lima and Callao,” Jeri said in an address to the nation on state television.”
“Ecuador’s Declining Oil Output Threatens to Spark an Economic Crisis…
“The last decade has been especially grueling for Ecuador’s economically vital oil industry… The sharp decline in oil production is weighing heavily on government finances at a time of increased spending due to a national security crisis.”
“AI is suffering ‘brain rot’ as social media junk clouds its judgment…
“The results were striking. When models were trained entirely on junk data, their reasoning accuracy fell from 74.9 to 57.2… The study also found traces of “dark traits”, including increased tendencies resembling narcissism and psychopathy, in the behaviour of models trained on engagement-heavy data.”
“Are we living in a golden age of stupidity?
“…The fundamental issue, Kosmyna says, is that as soon as a technology becomes available that makes our lives easier, we’re evolutionarily primed to use it. “Our brains love shortcuts, it’s in our nature. But your brain needs friction to learn. It needs to have a challenge.””
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Media is finally “realising” that the AI destroys everything because it’s so miraculously powerful narrative is… a narrative. This begs the question, why were they repeating these same lies back when their current scepticism might have avoided the bubble those lies created? I guess they just unconditionally believed what the people selling a product said about that product. Because why wouldn’t they, right?
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/19/firms-are-blaming-ai-for-job-cuts-critics-say-its-a-good-excuse.html
“From tech to airlines, large global companies have been slashing staff as the real-world impact of artificial intelligence plays out, spooking employees. But critics say AI has become an easy excuse for firms looking to downsize.”
Jupiviv, there have been some dissenting voices from the outset, but we were never going to resist a shiny, new tech that stimulates energy consumption, adds more complexity and amplifies our problem-solving capacity.
Viewed through the prism of Joseph Tainter’s theory of diminishing marginal returns on social complexity, it looks like industrial civilisation’s final roll of the dice.
That is interesting re the jobs. I’m sure it is a handy excuse…
After a user who asked the bot to name the greatest threat to Western civilization received the response, “misinformation and disinformation,” Musk expressed displeasure. He said he would “fix that by morning.” The bot’s new answer to the same question changed to “low fertility rates,” in line with his position as part of the pro-birther movement
https://www.tpr.org/2025-10-20/why-elon-musks-grok-chatbot-sounds-an-awful-lot-like-musk-himself?_amp=true
Elon Musk will make better fertilizer than he did a human being.
Thanks Survivalist – that is an interesting nugget.
I am a parent myself but I find the pro-natalist movement next level creepy. The delusion that we can selectively breed our way out of our predicament is as absurd as our attempts to borrow our way out of a debt-trap or transition our way to sustainable growth on a finite planet.
Very interesting, that whole “railway/network bubble.”
In my family, several relatives went bankrupt during what was then called the “greatest bubble” of the late 19th and early 20th centuries — the railways, which were supposed to change everything. At birthdays in my childhood it was still talked about; the worthless bonds would be passed from hand to hand with a shake of the head… What if…? and for a moment everyone felt rich again.
In the 1890s, faith in the railway as the vehicle of endless progress collapsed. All over the world — from Pennsylvania to Prussia, from Odessa to Lyon — rails had been laid in the belief that connection itself would generate prosperity. Banks, governments, and private investors believed that the network would create its own economy.
In the United States, railroad barons built lines that intersected in empty prairies, financed by debts and bonds that could carry no freight. The crash spread through banks and stock exchanges to Europe.
In France, thousands of small investors discovered they had sunk their savings into South American railway lines; in Russia, foreign credit dried up and the Trans-Siberian line became a financial anchor dragging down the state budget. Then came the Russian Revolution.
The shares of the Russian railways — the Obligations des Chemins de Fer Russes — are legendary in European financial history. In the years before 1917, French and Belgian savers were up to their ears in them.
It’s estimated that more than 1.5 million French households owned such papers, carefully stored in safes or savings books. When the Bolsheviks refused to recognize the Tsarist debts, those certificates became worthless overnight. Investors were left with printed paper and bitterness — a European version of the Lehman Brothers experience avant la lettre.
And the litigation dragged on for decades. Well into the 21st century, heirs have continued to seek compensation through French courts and diplomatic channels. Russia has always maintained that neither the Soviet Union nor the Russian Federation bears responsibility for Tsarist debts. In 1996 there was a partial settlement with France, but it covered only a fraction of the claims.
Zip, thank you – what a fascinating slice of history; and not something I know much about. It looks like Great Britain had its own railway bubble burst ahead of the curve in 1846, which I suppose makes sense, given that the modern railway system was invented here.
“With railway stocks now tantalizingly within reach of Britain’s emerging middle class, companies pulled out all the stops to market themselves to investors. Railway firms aggressively pushed their own shares—particularly in newspapers, the new media of the age.
“In late 1845, railway ads covered over half the space in many papers. Such ads were awash with inflated claims, optimistic revenue projections and questionable accounting practices, whipping up euphoria among investors…
“The mere fact that Railway Mania can be compared to so many subsequent speculative episodes with similar characteristics makes one thing abundantly clear: It is easy in hindsight to spot a bubble, but much harder to stop one occurring in the first place.”
https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/railway-mania-the-largest-speculative-bubble-you-never-heard-of/
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/29/us/reading-skills-naep.html
Us kids reading levels at a new low
https://archive.vn/pP8JH
Truly lamentable. I remember when I was in middle school in the late 2000s and just about every student was reading something.
It and and The Stand were popular at the time, so were the Warrior Cats and Animorph books. Hell, kids my age would read for fun during lulls in class and talk about them during lunch.
I even remember reading 1984, World War Z, The Time Machine, and (yeah…) Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet for the first time back then of my own volition. I learned a surprising lot from those books.
But even back then, I probably would’ve enjoyed watching YTPs on a phone more than reading those books… Maybe it’s a good thing cell phones were verboten in class. Did a lot to keep our young headspaces separated and focused on the task at hand.
Reading can be such a pleasure, too. What a shame kids are missing out on the joy of having a book so good you keep delaying your bed-time to read just a little more.
In so many ways it feels like we are descending into a morass of confusion and stupidity.
https://youtu.be/molqcQtZI2s?si=no5SCYHuyTnG9KUd
Billion dollar weather events 14 events over billion most expensive 6 month period
Now being compiled by Climate Central because the Federal Government no longer tracks that data. What they don’t know can’t hurt them, right? 😉
I moved from in front of the fan a while ago.