Huge thanks to August’s sponsor, Mick, who wishes recommend the book “Wild Free and Happy” by Richard Adrian Reese, which can be downloaded for free here. You can also find it in the PDF resource section at the excellent Post-Doom website.
“How the west got hooked on economic support. Crisis firefighting has given way to a dependence on government and central banks…
“…recent crises have helped to routinise — and sustain — government and central bank support. At the same time, ageing demographics, poor health and national security are raising demands on the state.”
https://www.ft.com/content/62b44835-1ce6-461e-9d8b-ba4b728c4e9e
“Is simmering dread over the private credit boom justified?
“The industry filled a gap left by banks after the financial crisis and is valued at up to $3 trillion, but policymakers are worried about lending risks… Private credit is a blancmange of an investment category — an amorphous, opaque and hard-to-define bucket where the numbers are uncertain, though everyone agrees they are growing at breakneck pace.”
“NZ debt nears $1 trillion as growth moderates, savings fall…
“That big, ugly number in our graphic is New Zealand’s total gross debt. It combines the latest Reserve Bank figures for private debt with Treasury numbers for Crown debt and Local Government Funding Agency data on council debt, and IRD’s data on student loans.”
“As the economy slows and productivity flatlines, is Australia having another banana republic moment?
“…he economy doesn’t seem to be functioning as it should, and may only be capable of growing at a fraction of the rate it used to. The budget is in structural deficit. The population is ageing, and our demand for government services grows and grows, even as our capacity to fund that extra spending goes the other way.”
“A Factory Town in Crisis Shows Japan’s Fading Manufacturing Era…
“Nissan Motor Co.’s Oppama factory, opened in 1961, was once a crown jewel in Japan’s postwar rise to manufacturing powerhouse… The factory is set to shut by March 2028 — part of Nissan’s wide-ranging restructuring after a slump in sales sparked its worst financial crisis since Renault SA rescued the carmaker from near bankruptcy a quarter century ago.”
“Japan’s Financial Services Agency is expected to approve the issuance of the country’s first yen-pegged stablecoin as early as this fall, local news outlet Nikkei reported Sunday…
“To support its peg to the Japanese currency, the JPYC stablecoin will reportedly be backed by highly liquid assets such as deposits and government bonds.”
https://www.theblock.co/post/367185/japan-approve-first-stablecoin
“China’s Cement Slump Signals End of 21st-Century Building Boom.
“Few commodities tell the story of China’s 21st-century economy better than humble cement, and its current output slump illustrates the depth of the nation’s building slowdown after the frenzy of the previous decade.”
“Hong Kong property sector clouded by rising debt repayment risks.
“Hong Kong’s debt-laden developers and their creditors are set to face intensifying financial pressure as bond maturities are slated to jump by nearly 70% next year amid falling sales and valuations for the city’s economically crucial property sector.”
“Global Economy Took Tariff Hike in Its Stride, But Stronger Headwinds Are Ahead…
““The full impact of recent tariff measures is still unfolding,” said Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director general of the World Trade Organization. “The shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment and supply chains.””
“Farmers in US midwest squeezed by Trump tariffs and climate crisis…
“With the 2025 harvest of corn and soybeans approaching – America’s biggest two crops and the linchpins of agriculture – crop growers are facing down the gauntlet. Climatic swings, rocketing operating costs and low international demand, caused, in large part, by government policy in the shape of tariffs, has created the perfect storm.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/16/farmers-trump-tariffs-climate-change
“Trump’s trade war puts US love for Scottish goods to the test…
“”All the prices are higher today than a year ago because butter costs have skyrocketed. Now add the tariff and every box of cookies has gone up by at least $1. “At some point, consumers will not buy a box of Scottish shortbread at $10 when American-made Lorna Doone shortbread sells for $5-6.””
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g0jnw7v8jo
“‘It is apocalyptic’: Scotland’s entire care service faces collapse.
“THE numbers are as astonishing as the severity of the warning. More than 200 charities, which provide health and social care across Scotland, are sending out an SOS saying the sector risks collapse.”
“Weak production data pours cold water on eurozone’s hope for industrial recovery.
“A sharp plunge in industrial production data suggests that the initial signs of an inventory cycle turn were mainly driven by US frontloading rather than a genuine cyclical recovery. Industrial weakness looks set to continue.”
https://think.ing.com/snaps/eurozone-gdp-and-ip-jun25/
“Croatian ultra-nationalist mega-gig exposes divided society.
“A “neo-fascist Croatian Woodstock” or patriotic, anti-establishment fun? Last month’s mega-gig by the ultra-nationalist singer Thompson – the stage name of Marko Perkovic – has dramatically exposed the polarised divisions deep within Croatian society.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz60nyp3714o
“Anti-government protesters clash with police in several Serbian cities.
“Protesters have clashed with riot police in Serbia’s capital, Belgrade, and other cities, on the fifth consecutive night of demonstrations against the government of right-wing President Aleksandar Vucic.”
“Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump tells Zelensky to give up Crimea and Nato ambitions ahead of White House meeting.
“Flanked by top European leaders, the Ukrainian president will return to Washington, DC nearly six months after he was infamously booted from the White House by Trump in a shocking twist earlier this year.”
“South Korean and US militaries begin annual summertime drills to cope with North Korean threats.
“The 11-day Ulchi Freedom Shield, the second of two large-scale exercises held annually in South Korea, after another set in March, will involve 21,000 soldiers, including 18,000 South Koreans, in computer-simulated command post operations and field training.”
“The Chinese Dam Threatening the World’s Most Endangered Ape.
“When a new orangutan species was found near a Chinese-owned hydrodam in Indonesia, scientists and advocates launched a campaign to block the project. Then some who spoke against it lost their jobs and ability to work in the area—and, in the case of one activist, his life.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/17082025/chinese-indonesia-dam-threatens-endangered-ape/
“Military airstrike on gem mining town kills at least 21 in Myanmar…
“The incident was the latest in a series of frequent and deadly military airstrikes, often causing civilian casualties, that have intensified in a bid to reclaim territory from resistance groups amid the ongoing civil war that erupted after the army seized power in February 2021.”
“Iranians Blame Secret Cryptocurrency Farms for Power Outages…
“This report, based on local sources and energy experts, claims that massive and hidden cryptocurrency mining facilities—believed to be run under the supervision of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—have placed unprecedented pressure on Iran’s already worn-out electricity infrastructure.”
https://iranfocus.com/economy/55126-iranians-blame-secret-cryptocurrency-farms-for-power-outages/
“The upcoming elections will not help stabilise Syria…
“The recurring violence has exposed the raw sectarianism that al-Assad once manipulated to maintain power. Now, in his absence, those divisions are metastasising, fuelled by a decade of unresolved grievances, land disputes and the proliferation of armed groups.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2025/8/17/the-upcoming-elections-will-not-help-stabilise-syria
“Hizbollah warns of ‘sectarian strife’ if Lebanon pursues disarmament.
“Hizbollah’s leader Naim Qassem has warned civil conflict could break out in Lebanon if its government presses ahead with a divisive US-sponsored plan to remove weapons from the Shia militant group.”
https://www.ft.com/content/5f5df266-48bc-429a-97b2-f57ae3726bf9
“Israeli Economy Shrinks 3.5% in Q2 Amid Conflict with Iran.
“Israel’s economy contracted in the April to June quarter, with gross domestic product shrinking 3.5 percent as the war with Iran led to a shutdown of many businesses and hurt consumer spending, exports, and investment, according to a preliminary estimate by the Central Bureau of Statistics.”
“Tens of thousands of protesters gather in Tel Aviv to demand end to Gaza war.
“The rally on Sunday evening was the culmination of a day of nationwide protests and a general strike to pressure the government to halt the military campaign. “Bring them all home! Stop the war!” shouted the vast crowd…”
“Israel says it carried out strike on Houthi energy facility in Yemen…
“The Israeli military said it had targeted an energy infrastructure site that was used by the Iran-aligned Houthis south of the Yemeni capital Sanaa early on Sunday, with Israeli media saying the Haziz power station had been hit.”
“Sudan army torturing people to death, says rights group…
“In a statement on social media platform X, Emergency Lawyers said it had observed a “dangerous escalation in violations”. Some detainees were arrested at random and taken to large detention centres, the group alleged.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy4dqp8eeedo
“China arms Burkina Faso as Sahel turns away from Western security promises.
“China is equipping Burkina Faso’s military and positioning itself for greater influence in the Sahel, filling a vacuum left by the collapse of security partnerships with Western nations, especially the United States and France.”
“Haiti declares 3-month state of emergency.
“Haiti’s government has declared a three-month state of emergency across the West, Artibonite and Center departments as gang violence intensifies, devastating the nation’s agricultural heartland.”
https://haitiantimes.com/2025/08/17/haiti-state-of-emergency-gang-violence/
“Fears of unrest surge as Bolivia readies for its first democratic handover in over two decades…
“The left-wing Movement to Socialism (MAS) party- which has been in power for all but one year since 2005- is widely expected to face sweeping losses amid declining support and Bolivia’s economic crisis.”
“Gen Z is putting house hunting on hold — convinced World War III is more likely than buying a home.
“One in five of those aged 18 to 28 think World War III is a bigger possibility than purchasing a house in the next five years, according to a survey by Clever Real Estate.”
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Hello Pan,
An interesting and shocking report from Rystad… Certainly something to reflect on. Perhaps Kaplan will also shed his light on it. It puts everything under enormous time pressure. Even Tverberg would be startled 🙂
Rystad Energy predicts a reserve-to-production ratio of only 14 years!
Rystad has just published its latest update of globally recoverable oil reserves. A spreadsheet, a calculation of the amount of oil historically consumed, and a so-called reserve-to-production ratio that indicates the world may have only fourteen years left.
Since 1900, the world has pumped and consumed 1,572 billion barrels of crude oil. Current global consumption is around 100 million barrels per day, or 36.5 billion per year. Rystad calculates from this a reserve-to-production ratio of 14 years.
That figure cannot be read linearly: with accelerating depletion, the absence of major new discoveries, and vanishing capital, production will fall sharply after 2030, making those “14 years” more of an endgame than a comfortable horizon.
Rystad itself underpins this short horizon with a major downward revision of its future expectations. Over the past decade, its estimate of yet-to-find oil has been reduced by 456 billion barrels. The reasons: a steep decline in frontier exploration, the failure of shale developments outside the Americas, and a doubling of offshore costs in the past five years. According to Rystad, new conventional projects in the next five years will replace less than 30% of annual production, while exploration will add only about 10%. For every ten barrels the world consumes, only one new barrel is added.
But behind this neat number lie several paradoxes:
Decline – Production does not decline linearly but through steep drop-offs. Shale wells lose 60–70% of their output in the first year, deepwater fields about 15% annually. Only the old giants like Ghawar shrink more slowly at 3–4% a year.
All liquids – Rystad counts everything: crude, condensates, NGLs, biofuels. But the global economy runs mainly on diesel and kerosene. Those fractions are becoming scarcer, since new sources yield less of them.
Quantity vs. quality – In the spreadsheet every barrel weighs the same, whether from Texas, the Orinoco, the tar sands, or under Russian permafrost. In reality they differ enormously in energy content, cost, and risk.
On top of this comes the gap between reserves and capital. On paper, more than a trillion barrels are technically recoverable. But without trillions in investment, not a single drop will reach the market. Investors now prefer dividends and buybacks over long-term risky projects. Even the majors restrict themselves to quick-return ventures.
And finally, the illusion of central planning. As if there were a world ministry of energy calmly opening the tap for 14 years. The reality is a chaotic battlefield of states, majors, sanctions, wars, and illegal circuits.
Local collapses — the implosion of U.S. shale, the loss of Russian exports, the closure of European refining capacity — can reinforce each other and trigger global chain reactions. Diesel will become structurally scarce before 2030. That is the true Achilles’ heel of the global economy.
And this is not the doomsaying of critics, but Rystad Energy’s own conclusion.
https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/discovered-recoverable-oil-resources-increased-by-5-billion-barrels-despite-produ
Zip , Quark in Spain has a good analysis . Spanish , use translator .
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2025/08/rystad-energy-las-reservas-probadas-de.html
From a quick look: The large fields shown are all either in decline or about to decline, 1.8 billion discoveries in 2024 (blimey !?) but 313 yet to find so another 200 odd years of exploration – I don’t think so, minus 3 billion revisions in 2024 – probably a lot more this year with the price collapse, in my career we always assumed (based on painfully acquired experience) that the 2P number was about right and contingent reserves would not be produced – so I’d say we are closer to 700 billion left. – i.e. less than 10 years’ R/P or about a 10% natural decline. Lucky for us climate change looks to be accelerating both for the driving force and consequences so we’ll probably be gone before the last drop of oil is used.
Actually we got that wrong – production is around 30 billion per year so 25 years remaining or 5% decline.
Yes thank you, he/she gives an utter version of the article.
Solving ‘the electrification. 🙂
Well everyone knows that the “diesel era” cannot be replaced by more electrification.
Our entire system is based on diesel.
Even the extraction of shale gas is “diesel negative” let alone the “electrification”.
The collapse of diesel as irreplaceable in the “energy chain” will flatten things immediately.
If you cut out the diesel base, you will see how staggeringly few alternatives remain in practice.
– Conversion: hopeless. You don’t convert a million trucks, tractors or excavators to batteries or hydrogen in a decade. The infrastructure is not there, the energy density is not there, and the costs are astronomical. And mining wille be still based on ‘diesel’
– Fall back on petrol/kerosene: impossible, because the whole refining chain is precisely optimised for middle distillates. You can’t just throw paraffin in a tractor or propane in a container truck.
– Local palliatives: biodiesel, HVO, synthetic fuels… yes, on a small scale, but structurally you run into land use, water, and a huge shortage of suitable feedstock there.
– Systemic reality: without diesel, the global economy becomes a patchwork of islands.
Transport stagnates, agricultural productivity plummets, global chains break.
So the question left in a brainstorm is really: not how do we replace diesel, but what a society looks like after diesel.
Thank you, all, for your thoughts on this. It is unnerving to see such a core limit to growth quantified, as it is in that Rystad report.
I’m surprised the already elevated diesel prices aren’t making more headlines:
“The global diesel market faces a severe supply shortage with storage tanks across major hubs reaching alarmingly low levels… Storage facilities in critical locations, including the US Gulf Coast, Rotterdam, and Singapore, are reporting dramatically low diesel inventories…
“TotalEnergies predicts that stronger diesel prices will become a persistent feature of the global oil market… stakeholders across industries will need to closely monitor developments and prepare for potential disruptions in supply and pricing.”
https://scanx.trade/stock-market-news/global/global-diesel-crunch-intensifies-stockpiles-at-historic-lows-amid-supply-concerns/16134095
I produced a music video yesterday which absolutely bombed in views. People would much rather me rant on camera.. but here it is visualizing what you document so excellently everyday!
Keep on runnin! : https://youtu.be/9UfSN5y7xJo?si=yDqW27Kd2xaYgVjW
Captures the madness of the Anthropocene nicely, Doom Wizard. 😎
Expertly done, Doom Wizard. Beyond powerful. Impeccable visualizations.
And you’ve got 1.63 K subscribers!
What’s next – Hollywood?
The latest Rystad Energy summary for anyone interested:
https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/discovered-recoverable-oil-resources-increased-by-5-billion-barrels-despite-produ
Somewhat amusing that they’re spinning oil supply constraints in the near future as good for the climate. Definitely a novel take on the issue, if not an entirely convincing one! Won’t there be at least some warming even if new emissions drastically decrease? And the half-life of CO2 is 75 years iirc so… what about all the extant CO2?
I just saw zip’s comment above, my bad for double-posting the link.
I read somewhere ages ago, that if the world stopped all oil burning tomorrow, there is at least 10 years of increased warming baked into the atmosphere & oceans and even turning the peak, of FF burning, the subsequent decline in CO2 from FFs would be very slow.
That was only referring to fossil-fuels, there is also various feedback loops such as ocean heat sinks releasing all that previously absorbed CO2, massive fire seasons every summer, and methane release from the thawing arctic etc.
It’s either this:
They’re trying to act like this would speed along the green transition rather than causing the economy to flip out like a car that’s lost its drive shaft.
It could also be that their outlook could be from having specialists who only look at one (or a small group) of aspects of the loss without checking with anyone else from other fields.
Whether through stockholder-driven nefariousness, or a genuine scientific oversight… either way, the prognosis isn’t good.
“If oil demand rises over the next few decades, global recoverable resources will not offer the supply needed to meet it, creating a constrained economic environment that wouldn’t be able to compete with less capital-intensive energy sources.”
There just aren’t any less capital-intensive energy sources that are fungible with oil at scale. How long, then, until our worsening affordability crisis spirals into far worse?
“Peak oil is likely to force peak energy in general. The ability to bring on new energy production and maintain existing energy infrastructure is likely to be severely compromised. We may see massive demand and supply collapses with limited ability to re-boot…
“This will evolve as a systemic crisis; as the integrated infrastructure of our civilisation breaks down. It will give rise to a multi-front predicament that will swamp governments’ ability to manage. It is likely to lead to widespread disorientation, anxiety, severe welfare risks, and possible social breakdown.”
https://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Tipping-Point-Nov.pdf
“All knowledge is limited”…Jiddu Krishnamurti…at least in our human realm…AI may change that (sarcasm)
Suppose that is why we having moving goalposts as measurements.
Dr. James Hansen once wrote in his now classic work. “Storms of my Grandchildren”; “Unless we get the human population in check, all is for naught”.
That’s an issue off the discussion list, so I’ll won’t pursue it.
Actually, many poignant points in the comment section today.
Regarding the climate two YouTube posts with Dr. James Hansen and Professor McPherson stand out.
Dr. Hansen in his interview commented our efforts are ” half assed” and the IPCC to him is too powerful and after wrapping up his next book “Sophie’s Planet”, he’ll take time to address it…like we have the time frame to modify public policy…
Anyway, here’s the link
What Everyone Must Know About Climate Sensitivity with James Hansen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5jShXBD6ck&t=4789s
Dr. Hansen has NOT changed his mind that the focus should be on the “price on carbon”, and Im quite sure the banks would corrupt the program to make it ineffective, like carbon trading he pointed to as a profiting center.s
Also. retired Professor McPherson also posted a new video regarding a new source of massive carbon source that Pan already posted here, Artic tundra. So, hopefully the fossil fuel tap will dry up sooner than later in my wish list…
Thank you all for all your content
Thank you, Vince. I shall try to find time to watch Dr Hansen’s clip.
My attention is not what it should be this evening. An outside air temp of 24C/75F may sound like small beer, but our infrastructure just isn’t set up to cope with it. It’s currently 31C/87.8F in my big-windowed office, and the humidity is 85% and climbing, so I am melting…
“All knowledge is limited…” There is only one knowledge that is important –
“Unless we get the human population in check, all is for naught”.
I never read that he said this. I known this since 1964 & we are in the find out stage & now it’s too late for this species to think it can stop what’s coming as if it would even try.
“Thank you all for all your content”. Your (poetic lysince) welcome. To bad others don’t have availability to my brilliant comments. 😉
My foolishness or others’ seriousness will not save us.
Pan, Yes, it is a HEAT Bomb here too in South Florida and dodged another devastating hurricane by luck, now heading to the shore of the Carolina. The ocean water is HOT fueling confirmed by the TV Certified Weather Lady, Betty White on Channel 10. She also points out it might be 98 F but feels like 105F…
Oh, TR, That Dr. Hansen line may be from his boom if my memory serves me right. Oh. Please I mainly here to “sound off” and let off some steam, so to speak. Why so serious about the obvious? We all have the same ending, some lucky to chose the time and place…actor Paul Newman in his movie Hombre
“We all have the same ending, some lucky to chose the time and place…”
There will be many that expire sooner than expected, because of AGW & more than any other cause of death? Too bad we are driving to extinction, 150 species daily. Now that’s serious.
Somebody made some bad decisions. 😉