Huge thanks to this month’s anonymous sponsor, who wishes me to lead with this public notice she spotted: “If special arrangements need to be made to accommodate residents with disabilities in order for them to participate in the public hearing, including a Spanish or Karen interpreter, please call…”
“Breaking News! Code Yikes!
“The global 2m surface temperature on July 14th set a new daily record. It was the hottest July 14th since records began in 1940 and possibly the hottest July 14th in the last 120,000 years.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1945467006867898381
“Floods Prompt Evacuations in Earth’s Coldest Inhabited Settlements.
“Russian authorities on Wednesday ordered evacuations in parts of the republic of Sakha (Yakutia) after heavy rains caused severe flooding in some of the world’s coldest inhabited areas, including the village of Oymyakon.”
“Heavy Rain Triggers Flash Floods Across Moscow.
“Videos posted on social media showed cars submerged in murky water, traffic backed up on flooded highways and water pouring into tunnels and underground parking areas. Authorities said parts of the city received a month’s worth of rain in under two hours. No one was reported injured.”
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/15/heavy-rain-triggers-flash-floods-across-moscow-a89823
“SCANDINAVIA HEAT WAVE – another 34C+ day in NORWAY (and probably 7 more 32/33C coming ! Absolutely historic) – 34.3C [93.7F] Maraker, 33.6C Gartland.
“In ICELAND Incredible 27C above 500m asl: unprecedented; In GREENLAND 23.1C at 70 latitude.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1945551915950973326
“Drought Spreads in England After Driest Start to Year Since 1976.
“Global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather in the UK, threatening the livelihoods of farmers and health of vulnerable people. Temperatures across many parts of the UK are set to rise again later this week, worsening the situation.”
“Heat Deaths in Spain Have Surged This Summer Amid Record Temperatures.
“This June was the hottest on record for Spain, with an average temperature of 23.6C (74.5F), 3.5C higher than the historical average between 1991 and 2020, according to meteorological agency Aemet… More than 95% of the people who died this summer were over 65 and close to two-thirds were women.”
“Summer isotherm 0°C over Swiss Alps 1950 to 2024 + 350 m in 50 yrs! From ~3300 m to just under 3700 m today!
“And even >3900 m in very warm summers as 2003 or 2024! Why is this relevant? Thawing of permafrost and glaciers.” [Melaine Le Roy]
https://x.com/subfossilguy/status/1945119695671001321
“Heat melts Alps snow and glaciers, leaving water shortage.
“”Everything has dried up,” said Noemie Dagan, who looks after the Selle refuge, located at an altitude of 2,673 meters (8,769 feet) in the Ecrins, a mountain range overtowered by two majestic peaks… “We are nearly a month early in terms of the snow’s melting.””
https://phys.org/news/2025-07-alps-glaciers-shortage.html
“The latest study shows that Athens’ reservoirs are very close to historic lows, with a risk of water scarcity.
“Water reservoirs in Attica, the Greek region encompassing Athens, are approaching historic lows, according to the latest analysis of the FloodHUB service of the BEYOND Operational Unit of IADET/EEA for the water supply system of Athens.”
“Romania among countries projected to see sharp GDP, labor productivity decline due to heat.
“Experts recommend robust climate mitigation efforts to curb the rising intensity and frequency of heatwaves and adaptation measures, like improving workplace ventilation, adjusting working hours to avoid peak heat, or expanding urban green spaces.”
https://www.romania-insider.com/romania-gdp-labor-productivity-decline-heat-2025
“Leaking pipes as climate warms: Bulgaria faces water crisis.
“Bulgaria, the EU’s poorest country, has decades-old pipes — some laid before World War II — while water theft and poor resource management amplify the consequences of climate change.”
“Wildfire spreads in northwestern Türkiye threatening neighborhoods.
“A forest fire that started on Tuesday in Tekirdağ’s Şarköy district has expanded to neighboring Çanakkale’s Gelibolu district in northwestern Türkiye, forcing the temporary closure of the Çanakkale-Malkara highway due to heavy smoke and reduced visibility.”
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN TURKEY – 48.5 [119.3F] Kiziltepe; MINIMUMS up to 34C.
“It’s the longest and harshest heat wave in history and it will only slow down a bit but with still 45C every day.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1945203836353683490
“Euphrates Dam heads toward decommissioning, reaching “dead level”.
“The Dams Administration in North and East Syria has warned that the Euphrates River’s water level could reach the “dead level,” which would put the dam out of service and cause a catastrophe.”
https://hawarnews.com/en/euphrates-dam-heads-toward-decommissioning-reaching-dead-level
“INSANE HEAT IN MIDDLE EAST – mind blowing MINIMUM TEMPERATURE 38.3C [100.9F] Tuz IRAQ.
“Dozens of stations all over Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Emirates) with Minimums >35C. Max. temperatures expected up to 52C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1945060827167404344
“The heat index reached 149°F (65°C) in Iran along the Persian Gulf today.
“Deadly heat and humidity.”
[Colin McCarthy]
https://x.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1945582774901248334
“Melting Mountains, Drying Futures: Central Asia Confronts Water Emergency.
“…climate-driven glacial retreat, inefficient irrigation, and aging infrastructure have already pushed the region toward a breaking point… “We must act very quickly and together,” EDB Chairman Nikolay Podguzov stated. “We have only five years to get the region ready and avoid severe water shortages.””
https://timesca.com/melting-mountains-drying-futures-central-asia-confronts-water-emergency/
“Pakistan’s monsoon misery worsens as floods kill more than 150.
“At least 28 people were killed on Wednesday due to heavy monsoon rains in Pakistan’s biggest province amid warnings of more rough weather ahead for the South Asian nation.”
“A ‘Himalayan tsunami’ has just devastated Nepal. It should be a wake-up call.
“Up until a disastrous day earlier this month, more than 150 trucks crossed daily over a border bridge between Nepal and China. Known by locals as the Miteri Pul (Friendship Bridge), the Rasuwagadhi crossing served as the main trade route between the two countries, with over $50m of goods passing over it last year alone.”
“Today, 48 stations in China broke or tied the July record, and 19 of them broke annual record! Sanxia 43.7C broke the highest record in Hubei in July!
“…Temperature in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, broke the historical record! Xi’an weather station was 42.3C, AWS reached 46C, the lowest temperature at night was 32~34C, and the ground temperature was as high as 73.5C [164.3F] !” [Jim Yang]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/1945441058458050773
“China’s record-breaking heat pushes power demand to new high.
“Days of broiling record-breaking heat across large swathes of China pushed power demand to an all-time high in excess of 1.5 billion kilowatts, energy officials said.”
“Three dead as South Korean region hit by most rain in 120 years…
“The western Seosan area was hit by rainfall peaking at 114.9 millimetres (4.5 inches) per hour, “a level typically seen only once in 100 years”, a weather agency official told AFP, adding that this was the highest rate since full records began in 1904.”
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/three-dead-south-korean-region-073559362.html
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN OCEANIA. Hottest nights records everywhere. Examples of HIGH MINS:
“28.0 [82.4F] Manhiki COOK ISLANDS JULY HOTTEST NIGHT; 28.2 Christmas KIRIBATI, 24.8 Nausori FIJI, FRENCH POLYNESIA: 26.8 Bora Bora, 26.1 Hao; NEW CALEDONIA: 24.1 Ile Loop, 23.7 La Roche, 22.2 La Tontout.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1945629392010461474
“Corals in crisis: A hidden chemical shift is reshaping Hawaiian reefs.
“Hawaiian coral reefs may face unprecedented ocean acidification within 30 years, driven by carbon emissions. A new study by University of Hawai‘i researchers shows that even under conservative climate scenarios, nearshore waters will change more drastically than reefs have experienced in thousands of years.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/07/250716000851.htm
“Amazon deforestation spikes as Brazil blames criminal fires.
“Brazil’s environmental agenda is tasting bittersweet in 2025. While the country’s northern capital city of Belém is wrapped in global expectations for hosting the COP30 U.N. climate summit in November, loud alarms have sounded in the Amazon due to a noticeable growth in deforestation in the first months of the year.”
https://news.mongabay.com/2025/07/amazon-deforestation-spikes-as-brazil-blames-criminal-fires/
“Mining companies are pumping seawater into the driest place on Earth [Chile]…
“Water extraction has caused water table levels to drop, endangering springs, wetlands and surface water sources that support biodiversity and are vital for local crops and livestock. “Several wetlands have dried up completely, and the vegetation has diminished considerably,” says Cubillos.”
“At least one minor died and dozens of homes and streets were flooded after heavy rains hit the municipality of Zapopan [Mexico] on Tuesday night.
“Zapopan is part of the Guadalajara metropolitan area, one of Mexico’s largest cities, and home to one of the stadiums that will host the 2026 World Cup.”
“Flash flooding kills half a million fish at Mescalero hatchery [New Mexico].
“Flash flooding ripped through Tularosa Canyon on the Mescalero Apache Reservation on Monday, displacing and then killing approximately 500,000 rainbow trout housed in the tribe’s fish hatchery. The floods crippled the hatchery, killing 80% of the fish that are used to stock lakes across the state and Southwest.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/flash-flooding-kills-half-million-030900529.html
“Their Water Taps Ran Dry When Meta Built Next Door [Georgia].
“The Morrises’ experience is one of a growing number of water-related issues around Newton County, which is a one-and-a-half-hour drive east of Atlanta and has a population of about 120,000 people. As tech giants like Meta build data centers in the area, local wells have been damaged, the cost of municipal water has soared…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/technology/meta-data-center-water.html
“US farmers scramble as heavy rains devastate key crops: ‘It’s going to be rough’.
“In a summer of weather extremes across the United States, farmers near Pittsburgh are contending with vast amounts of rainfall. CBS News shared Dan Yarnick’s story; his field of sweet corn was submerged, and 40 of his 250 acres were flooded.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-farmers-scramble-heavy-rains-113055648.html
“Climate change is amplifying extreme rain events in the Northeast, research shows.
“The Northeast has experienced the largest regional increase of extreme precipitation in the U.S., with a 60% increase in recent decades, according to the U.S. government’s Fifth National Climate Assessment.”
“The longest-lasting 2023 western North American heat wave was fueled by the record-warm Atlantic Ocean.
“…the anticyclonic pattern was ultimately forced by the extremely warm sea surface temperature in the Atlantic. The combination of a warm Atlantic and a developing Pacific El Niño significantly amplified regional heat waves, doubling their number, tripling their days, and increasing their duration by about 50%.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-61859-y
“Climate change intensifies marine heat waves, threatening ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services [global ocean heat content is currently second highest on record].
“”Marine heat waves have profoundly impacted how humans interact with the oceans,” Dr. Filbee-Dexter said. “Marine ecosystem services—the benefits people derive from the oceans—really takes a hit every time the temperatures soar.””
https://phys.org/news/2025-07-climate-marine-threatening-ocean-biodiversity.html
“The world can’t afford to ignore the ecological crises unfolding in Antarctica…
“One of the most urgent ecological pressures comes from the growing global demand for Antarctic krill, small shrimp-like crustaceans that underpin the entire food chain. Penguins, whales, seals and seabirds all rely on krill to survive.”
“Toxic ‘forever chemicals’ have infiltrated Antarctic waters: Study…
“Certain types of “forever chemicals” are present in ocean areas west of the Antarctic Peninsula at levels comparable to those in the North Atlantic, according to the study, published in Communications Earth & Environment.”
“As Brazil expands oil, COP30 head urges rich nations to phase out fossil fuels first.
““We [in Brazil] have our contradictions; that’s not an excuse and we must face them,” Toni said… “But if we are transitioning away from fossil fuels, which countries should start first? Should it be Brazil, Guinea-Bissau and Nigeria? Or Canada, the United States and Norway?””
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
Hello Pan here some thoughts about tje law of ‘Almost’
1. The Law of ‘Almost’ – Why Systems Never Collapse, Until They Do
Something strange is happening to the world’s infrastructure. Warnings are leaking out everywhere — press releases full of cautious phrasing, reports with deadlines that still seem just about manageable. And time and again, the same conclusion rises to the surface: it’s almost too late.
The Euphrates is nearing dead level. The glaciers of Central Asia are melting faster than predicted. In Bulgaria, drinking water seeps away through pipes laid back when Hitler was in power. Yet in none of these cases do we hear a final swan song. On the contrary — there’s always just a little wiggle room left. Just five more years. Just enough flow. Just enough political indifference.
2, We live in the era of the Law of Almost.
The Hydraulics of Delay
The Euphrates Dam in northern Syria is on the verge of shutting down because water levels are too low to drive the turbines. The consequences would be severe: blackouts, crop failures, new waves of migration. But the dam hasn’t stopped yet. Not quite. And as long as a trickle still runs through it, panic seems unnecessary.
In Central Asia, the chairman of the Eurasian Development Bank warns there are only five years left to avoid large-scale water shortages. Five years. A number that sounds more like a policy option than a force of nature. Meanwhile, glacial retreat is accelerating, irrigation is failing, and international cooperation remains stuck in declarations of intent.
In Bulgaria, more than half of the drinking water disappears before it reaches the tap. The pipes leak, and so does public trust. But no one calls it systemic failure — as long as water still comes out in the end, everything seems fine. Almost.
Maintenance: The Vanished Verb
3. In all these cases, one constant remains: there is no room left for maintenance.
The expertise has eroded, the funding is gone, the coordination is absent. What’s left is a reactive mode: wait until it breaks. And even then, the response is often stopgap: temporary levees, water trucks, diesel generators, and hope that next year will be better.
The modernity that once built infrastructure for eternity has been replaced by a fragile interim reality. You can only build a system once with optimism; after that, we muddle through with duct tape and geopolitical distrust.
The Comfort Zone of Deferred Collapse
The Law of Almost is not a coincidence of shortages. It is a psychological and political defense mechanism. It keeps us right on the edge — not to turn the tide, but to avoid facing it.
It’s a law without a lawmaker. A law that functions as long as systems can pretend to function. But eventually, the day will come when almost becomes stillness. And then it will become clear that the real catastrophe did not occur in the moment of collapse — but in the years-long refusal to fix what was visibly broken.
Modernity leaks, melts, and evaporates — but always just slowly enough to postpone the reckoning.
Excellent comment! Thank you for this.
Zip, thank you – eloquent as always.
“What’s left is a reactive mode.”
A lot of what you say also fits the financial system, which is increasingly on the back foot because it is powerless to address the fundamental underlying problem, ie that we are hitting the limits to growth.
The Bank of England is a case in point – with our economy basically in stagflation, it is running out of good options. The pressure is on it to pull down interest rates, but doing that will likely just worsen inflation without stimulating growth. And the UK’s credibility as a borrower is running on fumes…
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/britain-stuck-squarely-in-stagflation-cpi-reaction-202507160653
Zip’s Law is brilliant.
However, in one small quibble, there was no “refusal” to fix, but never a chance to fix. The fire was overmassive, beyond control, as the statements of possible control were farcical and lunatic.
Look at Lula’s defense of Brazil’s sponsorship of COP30 and simultaneous incursions into the dying Amazon and other fossil fuel projects. He’s not all wrong in placing Brazil as “less worse” than the completely awful like the Gang of Four, but his defense is also pathetic and incoherent, just like the rest of humanity’s voicings of self-defense.
My head exploded a long time ago on the subject of the human predicament, so I cannot offer a detailed rebuttal/cosmic overview. We are not arguing possibilities here, only the courses devastation takes.
Martin, I would agree that the fixing has been beyond our control. The global economy has self-organised to convert energy into economic activity as quickly as possible. Long-term, systemic priorities like maintaining infrastructure will tend to lose out because they don’t offer immediate economic rewards. They look more like costs than investments.
We’re between a rock and a hard place now because climate change is ratcheting up its assault on ageing infrastructure just as financial limits are impinging on our ability to defend it.
Lula and Toni’s comments re COP30 reminded me of this heated exchange between Guyana’s President, Irfaan Ali, and a BBC journalist, whom he felt was lecturing him about climate change:
““Let me stop you right there,” he [Ali] said. “Did you know that Guyana has a forest that is the size of England and Scotland combined, a forest that stores 19.5 gigatons of carbon, a forest that we have kept alive?
“…We have the lowest deforestation rate in the world. And guess what? Even with the greatest exploration of oil and gas we will still be net zero.””
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/30/guyana-irfaan-ali-bbc-stephen-sackur-climate-change/
Always nice to see Pittsburgh pop up in the doom scroll. Really brings it all home. Plus that thumbnail of the football pitch in the middle of the desert is just perfect. I’ve been looking for an excuse to drop a couple Phish lyrics in the comments here, so now’s as a good a time as any.
Evolve
“First came the light, then came the sound,
Then came the worlds that would never slow down,
Then came the people with problems and hope
That don’t mean a thing if they just knew the scope.”
https://youtu.be/MquyX40xj7g?si=ahPKQtknL79glISZ
Oblivion
“I crash through shale
and splash in oil
(oblivion awaits)”
https://youtu.be/wASwRdeP3AU?si=n8GOfAlEOBOlQqvk
No excuses needed to drop some Phish lyrics if you’re really feeling the urge, John. You can just drop them in randomly, leaving us all puzzled and yet somehow uplifted.
Sounds like The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame did them dirty this year:
“Despite a history of getting things wrong, and with due respect to the 2025 inductees, I was still flabbergasted that Phish — finally nominated this year — were snubbed, dissed, left at the alter.”
https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/phish-rock-and-roll-hall-of-fame-1235326274/
Poor James Hansen. We will probably all be dead from climate related disasters before he ever publishes Sophie’s Planet.
https://mailchi.mp/caa/sophies-planet-wxuety8mzk?e=2a4222c26f
It sounds from the preface as if it is going to be as much a call to action as a bleak prediction of potential futures:
“Today’s political polarization presents an opportunity for young people to use their clout to address the basic problems preventing good governance, and to do so with an approach that restores our climate and preserves our remarkable planet as a home for people and all life.”
As a Dad, I really wish I shared his optimism.
https://apnews.com/article/climate-steve-miller-extreme-weather-flood-heat-99a9e41af7dd2957c8599de86f9102a3
Steve Miller band cancels concerts cites extreme weather
https://youtu.be/6B-obc1GlWI?si=NWNWfxxxIxznAUUb
Ny times podcast housing insurance is about to buckle! Actually it’s collapsing hold on to your butt!
https://youtu.be/6NrDCvKp5-k?si=tkC0HMZDpxiOZsSl
Techno billionaire insanity and a good interview and how these tech billionaires are the bad guys! Ai and silicon valley bullshit!
This species is depressing my depression.
“Ain’t nothin’ I can say, nothin’ I can do
I feel so bad, yeah, I feel so blue” – “So Very Hard to Go” – Tower of Power.
This species is making it horrible to exist until extinction?
As my cousin said; “Let ’em die dumb.”
I don’t have to let them do anything, their egos have been more than capable of destroying the habitat since their ancestors stood upright & learned the destructive power of opposable thumbs.
Nothing like species’ suicide to keep things entertaining. 😉
The Unfiltered reject subtly.