Enormous thanks to my anonymous donor for May, who wishes to call attention to Rob Mielcarski’s thought-provoking un-denial site, also featured in my blogroll, which looks at overshoot and related issues.
“The Greenhouse Gas CO₂ equivalent concentration is now about 573 ppm. Which would take 206% of preindustrial CO₂!
“That’s a stronger GHG forcing change than occurred between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, when global sea levels were ~130 meters lower than today) and 1750!”
[Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1921512408419365037
“April 2025 Globally, according to NOAA was the 2nd warmest April on record behind 2024; [its findings are] in agreement with Copernicus and NASA.
“May so far is following the same path.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1921990533469106602
“Breaking News! Code Yikes!
“One for the record books — May 9, 2025 was the hottest May 9th on record globally.. And yes, this means that May 9, 2025 was likely the hottest May 9th in the last 120,000+ years.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lovokktues2r
“Breaking News! Code Yikes!
“This year’s maximum for Arctic sea-ice volume was the 2nd lowest maximum for sea-ice volume on record. The annual minimum happens in September. That’s the one to watch. Stay tuned!” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lozi6fyhf22x
“Some pretty unusual warmth (for this time of year) stretching across the northernmost portions of the Arctic Ocean this weekend.
“Definitely not ideal as we move into the melt season…” [Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3louc53lr4c2o
“Wildfires in Zabaikalsky Region [Russia] Spread Rapidly Amid Strong Wind and Dry Weather.
“Wildfires in Far East Russia’s Zabaikalsky region continue to grow amid strong winds and dry weather… A federal-level state of emergency has been in place since April 23…”
“Land of rain turning arid: Lithuania faces growing risk of drought and extreme weather.
“Once known for its excess rainfall, Lithuania is increasingly becoming a land of water shortages, raising concerns of potentially dangerous or even extreme droughts this summer… dry conditions have persisted since July 2023, with little relief in sight.”
“Sweden’s state weather forecaster SMHI has issued forest fire warnings for a swathe of eastern Sweden and a large part of Västra Götaland, following a long period of dry weather…
“The agency issued a report last week warning of low water levels in Sweden’s lakes and rivers following a mild winter and an unusually dry spring.”
https://www.thelocal.se/20250512/forest-fire-warnings-issued-across-eastern-sweden
“Huge wildfire in West Lothian continues amid ‘extreme’ risk [Scotland].
“Those living nearby have been urged to keep their windows and doors closed due to the smoke. The fire service had earlier warned of an “extreme” risk of wildfires due to the warm, dry weather.”
https://www.thenational.scot/news/25154479.huge-wildfire-west-lothian-continues-amid-extreme-risk/
“How the weather got ‘stuck’ over the UK – and produced an unusually dry and warm spring…
“April 2025 was the sunniest since records began in 1910. This followed the third-sunniest March, and both months saw temperatures well above average nationwide. On May 1, the temperature reached 29.3°C in Kew Gardens in London – a new record for the date.”
“Videos: violent storms wreak havoc across France.
“Flights were also diverted from major Paris airport due to heavy rain… The heavy rainfall also led to flooding in parts of the south, with up to 100mm of rain falling over the weekend. In parts of the Pyrénées-Orientales, this is the equivalent of over a month of rainfall.”
https://www.connexionfrance.com/news/videos-violent-storms-wreak-havoc-across-france/723435
“The Die is cast… Swiss Glaciers Winter Mass Balance just published!
“13% deficit compared to 2010-2020 average! There is strong variability… but Silvretta experienced its absolute record low in 110 yrs! Another tough summer ahead!”
https://x.com/subfossilguy/status/1922006868848697421
“Syria battles uncontrolled forest fires in coastal mountains.
“…years of conflict have left many areas with limited emergency infrastructure, making containment efforts more difficult… the growing frequency of wildfires has raised concerns about environmental and economic losses in rural communities.”
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-853584
“EXTREME HEAT IN NORTH AFRICA:
“Temperatures at record levels everywhere: 46.5 [115.7F] in ALGERIA, 46.4 in NIGER and Minimums up to 36C in MALI. The extreme heat will just get worse and smash records all over the area.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1922011115816423915
“Endless record heat in WEST AFRICA:
“Minimum temperature of 26.0C [78.8F] at Dimbokro IVORY COAST, another record of May highest minimum. Records have been falling every single day for nearly 8 months in the area!”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1921550861903294870
“Nigerian farmers struggle as climate change dries up water sources.
“Farmers in Nigeria are finding it increasingly difficult to get enough water for their crops. Riverbeds have started to run dry leading some to have no choice but to pump for groundwater. The finger is pointed firmly at climate change…”
“Warmest decade on record leaves trail of misery across Africa…
““Extreme weather and climate change impacts are hitting every single aspect of socioeconomic development in Africa and exacerbating hunger, insecurity and displacement,” the WMO said.”
“The number of victims of last week’s floods in Kasaba (Fizi territory), South Kivu [Congo], has risen. The disasters left 114 dead, the provincial government announced on Monday…
“On the night of May 8-9, 2025, the village of Kasaba in Fizi territory was flooded by the overflowing waters of the Kasaba and Bekya rivers. The damage was enormous.”
https://actualite.cd/2025/05/12/rdc-plus-de-110-morts-suite-aux-inondations-fizi-mise-jour
“EXTRAORDINARY UNBELIEVABLE 40C IN SOUTH AFRICA. This is one of the most extreme events in history:
“Thousands of records pulverized for months in this eternal ZA summer. Today 39.5C [103.1F] Komatidraai, yesterday 35.1 Port Edward. Next week 35/40C every day! This is absolutely insane.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1921588839551807921
“Heavy rains cause flooding in Somalia’s Mogadishu, killing seven.
“Somalia has in the past suffered extreme climate shocks, including prolonged dry seasons that have caused droughts and heavy rains resulting in floods. Friday’s rains went on for about eight hours, leaving waist-high waters…”
“RECORD HEAT IN THE INDIAN OCEAN:
“Minimum 28.6 [83.5F] Juan de Nova Island FRENCH SOUTHERN TERRITORIES HOTTEST MAY NIGHT; Min 28.6 SEYCHELLES HOTTEST MAY NIGHT EVER; Min 27.9 Agalega MAURITIUS HOTTEST MAY NIGHT EVER.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1921890819302117433
“EXTREME HEAT IN INDIA AND BANGLADESH:
“Deadly heat continues unabated 24/7 with record hot nights broken in both countries including: Tmin 30.3 [86.5F] Malda INDIA and 27.8 Ragamati BANGLADESH. In just 11 days of May, most world countries have broken records, except a few.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1921494062059626658
“Nepal holds tribute for disappearing glacier…
“The Yala glacier, located between 5,170 and 5,750 metres above sea level, is in the Langtang Valley in northern Nepal. Since 1974, the glacier has shrunk in area by 66 percent and retreated 784 meters, according to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development.”
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1311051-nepal-holds-tribute-for-disappearing-glacier
“Authorities have initiated an emergency operation after Poipet was hit by heavy rains last night, resulting in widespread flooding [Cambodia].
“…the Commissioner-General issued strict orders to all police forces to pay attention to rescuing as soon as possible, especially the elderly, the disabled, the sick, pregnant women, and young children, to avoid any eventual accidents.”
https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501682119/in-pictures-poipet-hit-by-heavy-floods/
“Extreme heat takes toll on South and Southeast Asia.
“Public health infrastructure is under immense pressure. Hospitals are seeing an increase in heat-related illnesses, particularly among vulnerable groups such as outdoor laborers, the elderly and children…”
https://www.chinadailyasia.com/hk/article/611505
“Dangerous heat index to hit 33 areas in Philippines…
“Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur are expected to log the country’s highest heat index on Tuesday… A heat index of 45°C falls well within the so-called “danger” threshold, as it may cause “heat cramps, heat exhaustion,” and even “heat stroke with continued exposure.””
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/2060189/dangerous-heat-index-to-hit-33-areas-in-ph
“More extraordinary records pulverized in AUSTRALIA, including the 38.2 [100.8F] at Carnarvon [Western Australia] which is its highest temperature ever recorded in May.
“Scorching heat will go on for weeks. Absolutely mind blowing.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1921139621766869192
“‘Getting barer by the day’: drought conditions in SA and Victoria worsen, leaving rural communities in the dust…
“The last meaningful rain at Truro was recorded in November 2022, and the tally for the first four months of this year is a paltry 33.5mm. It’s a similar story across South Australia and Victoria, where farmers are braced for drought conditions to worsen.”
“Winter’s coming but the heat stays on for Australia’s coral reefs.
“Paige Sawyers, a Ph.D. candidate at UNSW Sydney, has been monitoring the reefs… “We’ve never had warming this high for this long—we’re not really sure what to expect after this. That’s what’s so scary.””
https://phys.org/news/2025-05-winter-stays-australia-coral-reefs.html
“‘A horror movie’: sharks and octopuses among 200 species killed by toxic algae off South Australia.
“More than 200 marine species, including deepwater sharks, leafy sea dragons and octopuses, have been killed by a toxic algal bloom that has been affecting South Australia’s coastline since March.”
“Weather in New Zealand has also been very warm in the past weeks with dozens of records broken.
“Earlier this month the subtropical not inhabited remote island of Raoul (Kermedec group) also had its highest temperature in history in May with 25.7C [78.3F].”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1921974767961219192
“As the Amazon’s waves weaken, a surfer fights to protect them…
“Laus, who twice broke records for surfing the world’s longest waves, fears that sea level rise and droughts fueled by climate change, as well as erosion from farming and dams, are upsetting the balance that unleashes the force of nature he spent years learning to ride.”
“Climate crisis threatens the banana, the world’s most popular fruit, research shows.
“Rising temperatures, extreme weather and climate-related pests are pummeling banana-growing countries such as Guatemala, Costa Rica and Colombia, reducing yields and devastating rural communities across the region…”
“Heavy rains in La Ceiba cause flooding and damage to homes [Honduras]…
“”We are constantly monitoring weather conditions and are ready to act if the situation worsens,” the National Emergency System posted on its social media.”
https://www.laprensa.hn/honduras/fuertes-lluvia-la-ceiba-inundaciones-dano-viviendas-CC25724053
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN MEXICO:
“Widespread >45C [113F] in the Northwest between Sonora, Sinaloa and Chihuahua – unprecedented for this time of the year, including in Hermosillo.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1921260446277104033
“Beekeepers across the U.S. see unprecedented honeybee die-offs…
““Based on early numbers that are coming in, it’s suggestive that this will be the biggest loss of honeybee colonies in U.S. history,” said Scott McArt, director of the Dyce Lab for Honeybee Studies at Cornell University.”
“Munich Re Profit Halves on €1.1 Billion Hit From LA Wildfires…
“The wildfires that incinerated entire neighborhoods in the Los Angeles area in January were among the most destructive in California’s history, killing dozens of people and burning thousands of structures.”
“Midwest Grapples With Wildfires Amid Record Heat and Dry Conditions…
“A large swath of Minnesota, Wisconsin, the Dakotas and Nebraska was on high alert on Monday… The unseasonably high temperatures and relative humidity levels at or below 20 percent were already fueling wildfires in several states, where temperatures approached or broke records.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/us/wildfires-midwest-heat.html
“INCREDIBLE – after a max of 96F, International Falls [Minnesota] had a minimum of 70F! / 21.1C (rare in summer), which pulverized by 4F its record of May highest minimum.
“Mind blowing Tmins of 67F to 73F in Minnesota and North Dakota with dozens of records brutalized by 2F to 5F margins! HISTORIC.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1922055277634793954
“HISTORIC also in CANADA:
“Insane 37.8C/100F at Emerson [Manitoba] is EARLIEST 100F IN CANADIAN HISTORY… TROPICAL NIGHTS: Min 21.7/71 Sprague destroys May record and just 0.3 from JUNE record; 21.1 Red Lake, 20.7 Fort Frances.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1922059327797387405
“Extinction Rebellion hold funeral for Paris Agreement 1.5°C climate target.
“While sounding the death knell of the 1.5°C target, participants in today’s funeral procession will pledge to step up where politicians have failed, and will issue a powerful rallying cry to the public…”
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I’m not sure how Leon Simon gets 573 when the NOAA equations give around 540 but it doesn’t really matter as it’s rising at 5ppm CO2e per year and accelerating. With ECS at 4.5 or more we are committed to at least 5 degrees of warming. There is no way we are going to develop global scale carbon dioxide removal as it is impossible on many technical, resource and geopolitical levels. At 5 degrees the extreme climate events will be 1000 to 10000 times worse than now, i.e. every place on earth will be in permanent turmoil, agriculture will be impossible and even day to day existence will be marginal for all terrestrial animals larger than a house cat with most of the oceans dead to complex life. The only questions to answer are: at what temperature does organised society become impossible and now fast will we get there? I’m having trouble seeing how we get past 2040, especially as resources, particularly diesel oil, are about to start to be increasingly shorter in supply than needed for our current civilisation structure, although it may take a couple of decades to finish off the last surviving hamlets.
A deeply informed and necessary take from George.
Five degrees is a thermonuclear hellscape.
However, on the question of questions remaining for remaining humanity- are we living in “organized society” now? Aren’t entropy and stupidity already the main sponsors of the organizer class?
Yes, of course this can get a lot worse in far more places, but hasn’t that ultimate question’s basis already been lost?
Martin, we are certainly sinking into a morass of confusion with the organizer class becoming increasingly dysfunctional as it faces a slew of problems it cannot solve. This comment from Tim Morgan caught my eye the other day:
“I think various countries are becoming ungovernable. In Britain, for instance, the Labour government, elected only last July, is already becoming very unpopular, and if an election was held right now, Reform UK might well win it. But what happens when they, too, fail, as I’m sure would be the case? How can ‘government’ (as in the conduct of necessary activities and the maintenance of order) be carried on under such conditions?”
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2025/05/05/302-at-the-end-of-modernity-part-one/
Good points – I think for now a lot of western society problems are because they were mostly set up we EROI above 30 and they don’t really work very efficiently as it has dropped towards 10. In the poorer countries climate disruptions are already having proportional larger impacts. But both effects are going to grow geometrically and clobber everybody, though ultimately now I think climate will be the coup de grace – many years ago I thought it would be resource limits especially peak oil, then I switched to biodiversity loss, then some combination of planetary boundaries but climate change has accelerating beyond anything anyone expected in the last two years.
George, I’m not sure how Leon has arrived at that figure. I wonder if he is counting from actual pre-industrial rather than NOAA’s phony, 1850-1900 pre-industrial.
I can’t disagree with your bleak précis of our climatalogical predicament. Speaking of agriculture becoming impossible, we have had an astonishingly dry spring here on Islay and the models suggest no rain for at least another two weeks. The land is absolutely desiccated.
This seesawing between very protracted, stuck wet/dry weather patterns is becoming a nightmare for UK farmers: “UK farmers watch as dry spring turns their livelihoods to dust. Record sunshine and scant rainfall has left wheat crops stressed and farms dependant for survival upon a dwindling stream of environmental grants…
““We came out of a very wet winter, so the crops didn’t put big roots down because they didn’t need to and then suddenly you get this change,” Harry Metcalfe, a Cotswolds farmer, said. “We don’t know what is normal anymore.””
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/environment/article/farmers-weather-inheritance-tax-bp6lv6h2s
The recreation field opposite me is already yellow and rock hard. I was fairly young and care free in summer 1976 and enjoyed it a lot, but this looks like it will be much more damaging, especially as it is highly likely to end with a flip-flop to flooding storms where the water will not be absorbed into the parched soil.
Hello Pan
Yes, you can symbolically carry the Paris agreements to the grave, but that won’t upset anyone anymore.
If you extend Kaplan’s analysis, there will inevitably come a moment or event when the classic ‘mechanism’ no longer works. In fact, that is the moment when the narrative changes. What is needed for that to happen?
1. Food shortages in rich countries
Not as a result of war, but due to climate, energy, or disruption of supply chains. When supermarkets in Europe or North America temporarily have empty shelves—not because of panic, but because of structural crop failures or logistical breakdowns—the realization will sink in that we are not invulnerable. The luxury of choice will disappear.
2. Infrastructure that fails in the summer
A prolonged heatwave that simultaneously overloads electricity grids, transport, and healthcare, resulting in thousands of deaths. Not a disaster somewhere else, but in Paris, Berlin, or Chicago. Think of 2021 in Canada, but not as an exception—as the beginning.
3. A symbolic place collapses
The disappearance or unusability of something iconic – the closure of Venice, the evacuation of Miami, the evacuation of a metropolis due to drought or flooding. Not only physical impact, but also the loss of cultural anchors.
4. The tipping of oceans or the atmosphere
A sudden disruption such as the halting of the Atlantic Ocean circulation (AMOC) or the accelerated disappearance of polar ice within a decade. Scientists are already warning about it, but the moment when fish stocks collapse en masse or the sea changes color will become tangible and irrefutable.
5. Social collapse in a “stable” country
If France or Germany were to face large-scale energy insecurity, uprisings, or mass migration from climate-bordered countries within Europe itself. Not just news, but chaos at the train station. Not an abstract future, but a visible break in the order.
A true moment of awareness is therefore physical, collective, and existential. It disrupts routines. It even shakes awake those who until then believed that technology, markets, or states keep everything under control.
The tragic thing is that all the signs are already there. But only when they break through the skin are they experienced as true. Perhaps that is the definition of our era: knowing without believing, until it hurts.
Zip, thank you – that is a good summary. “Think of 2021 in Canada…”
That Pacific NW heatwave was something else; 49.6C in Lytton, Canada at 50°N just mind-blowing. It even beats the national records of nations like Mali and Niger that incorporate large swathes of Saharan desert.
As with Hurricane Helene’s assault on North Carolina, it illustrated that there really is no safe bet for a climate refuge.
I agree with this analysis. Last night, in a tiny corner of SW England I attended a workshop with around 30 other people in a local town to try and envisage and plan ‘community resilience’, Some great ideas, most people over 50 and a real ‘wartime’ and ‘real’ energy to it. Sadly, most of the ideas require diverting financial and physical resources. Whilst the attention economy keeps us distracted (younger people are too busy bringing up families or enjoying themselves to go to these events or even think of these issue(, I’m minded of 2 sporting analogies about human nature,
1. The Bradford City FC fire – 56 people died after smoking was allowed in a wooden stand!. Wooden stands were banned afterwards.
2. The Hillsborough disaster – many saw this tragedy as inevitable one day, ,but we only banned this type of stadium design after the disaster.
It will take a disaster of one kind for us, collectively, to take this seriously and even then, Governments won’t be coming to help us.
Or us Vanessa Andreotti so cleverly puts it ‘ we will only start swimming when the water reaches our bum!!’
Kevin, thank you for your thoughts. I’m afraid you are right and that we are collectively more inclined to be reactive than pro-active when it comes to societal threats.
If nothing else, I imagine it must have been nice to spend some time with other people who “get it”.
Excellent post and comment section again. My gut told me years ago that we’d all either be dead or wish we were by 2040.
So… TURN IT UP!
https://youtu.be/LMhO7eYLUtY?si=zHGXoQ2JZ2t5AEWa
Brilliant video, Doom Wizard
Thank you, Doom Wizard. I agree with Mad Hatter – that is a nicely put together video. It captures the insanity well. 😎