“Breaking News! Code UFB!!! Global sea surface temperatures have once again broken the 21°C barrier.
“On Feb. 16, 2025, global SSTs hit 21.013°C. Since 1982, the only other years to see global SSTs breaking 21°C were 2023 and 2024.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lif3rjfk4s25
“And there it is, Global Sea Surface Temperatures reach levels not seen in at least 120,000 years before 2023 again!” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1891515816564097317
“North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures are back above pre-2023 records.
“That faint hope didn’t last very long, did it?” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1891516635288162780
“Reintroducing wolves to the Scottish Highlands could help address the climate emergency, experts say.
“The animals could lead to an expansion of native woodland which could take in and store one million tonnes of CO2 annually, according to a new study led by researchers at the University of Leeds.”
“Flooding victims say they feel anxious and abandoned [Somerset, England]…
“Ms Dawson explained the flooding has become “more frequent”. During the poor weather in January, her garden flooded for the first time. “Undoubtedly that’s a part of climate change,” she said.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9w5wyygqnno
“New record low temperature of -41.1°C observed in Poland [station only extant since 2022, though].
“Measurements indicate that the temperature last night dropped to -41.1°C (roughly -42°F) in one part of Poland’s southern Tatra mountains. If officially confirmed, that would be the lowest temperature ever recorded in the country.”
https://notesfrompoland.com/2025/02/17/new-record-low-temperature-of-41-1c-observed-in-poland/
“Global Warming Could Be Making It Less Windy in Europe.
“Global warming is driving down wind speeds during European summers, putting additional stress on the region’s energy systems as soaring temperatures boost cooling demand, new research shows.”
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2025/02/18/812181.htm
“Climate change opens the door to a vine disease that Europe avoided 150 years ago.
“A team of scientists has analyzed the global spread of Pierce’s disease, which has been moving through the Mediterranean for a decade and causing significant damage to vineyards in the affected regions.”
“Project helps Spain’s flood survivors restore family photos – in pictures.
“In the days after flash floods killed more than 200 people in Valencia last year, volunteers and students sifted through the wreckage for photos belonging to families who had survived the disaster to see what could be saved.”
“The rainfall over the last three hours [Madeira] has already exceeded the red warning level (for a six-hour interval).
“The Chão do Areeiro climatological station, at an altitude of 1,500 meters, recorded an accumulated rainfall of 80.5 liters per square meter (mm), with a limit of 60 liters per square meter in six hours.”
https://www.madeiraislandnews.com/2025/02/rain-in-areeiro-reaches-red-warning-level.html
“Around Burundi’s largest lake, women and children bear the brunt of floods.
“In April 2024, unusually heavy rain in south-western Burundi caused a landslide that flattened nearly 500 homes in the village of Gabaniro, Rumonge province… For those whose houses remain, it feels a precarious peace.”
“Saudi Arabia: Riyadh mobilises emergency plan as heavy rains, hailstorms sweep the city.
“More than 6,500 personnel—including engineers, inspectors, and workers—were mobilized, supported by approximately 1,800 specialized vehicles and equipment for rapid intervention.”
https://www.newsofbahrain.com/world/108732.html
“Egypt furious over Israeli report speculating attack on High Dam [not climate related but an, er, interesting thought experiment]…
“The Nziv website, which focuses on military analysis, described a scenario in which bunker-penetrating missiles could be used to demolish the High Dam, leading to catastrophic flooding…. casualties could reach 10.5 million… leading to famine, disease, and total state failure.”
https://www.newarab.com/news/egypt-furious-over-israeli-report-speculating-attack-high-dam
“Türkiye faces deepening water crisis as drought, mismanagement drain resources…
“The impacts of climate change, excessive water extraction, and poor agricultural practices are accelerating the depletion of the country’s freshwater reserves.”
“Warming triggers snowfall fraction loss Thresholds in High-Mountain Asia…
“High-Mountain Asia …stretches from the Tien Shan Mountains to the southern foothills of the Himalayas and from the Hindu Kush Mountains to the eastern end of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau… HMA has experienced a significant increase in warming rates, exceeding those in the Northern Hemisphere.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-025-00935-y
“Kashmir’s Rivers at Record Lows Amidst Dry Spell.
“The snowless winter and prolonged dry spell have deterred the recharging of water reservoirs with majority of the streams and river Jhelum flowing at below ‘zero level’.”
https://kashmirobserver.net/2025/02/17/kashmirs-rivers-at-record-lows-amidst-dry-spell/
“Unprecedented forest fires threaten Kashmir’s green cover due to dry spell.
“Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed a concerning rise in forest fires, with over two dozen incidents reported in the past two months, driven by an ongoing dry spell. The extended lack of precipitation has raised alarms among forest officials…”
https://risingkashmir.com/unprecedented-forest-fires-threaten-kashmirs-green-cover-due-to-dry-spell/
“Alarming Rise in Maharashtra Forest Fires Amid Soaring Temperatures…
“With an average January temperature of 31.3°C—1.5°C above normal—and Pune registering a record-breaking 35.9°C, the impact of climate change is evident. February, too, has seen unprecedented warmth…”
https://urbanacres.in/alarming-rise-in-maharashtra-forest-fires-amid-soaring-temperatures/
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT WAVE IN CENTRAL/EAST ASIA:
“Min 27.9 [82.2F] Penang HOTTEST FEBRUARY NIGHT IN MALAYSIA HISTORY. Also Records at: 25.7 Sitiawan MALAYSIA; 27.0 Rach Gia VIETNAM; 27.0 Amini Divi INDIA. Next post: insane heat in Thailand, Laos and Cambodia.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1890721127137181915
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN SOUTHEAST ASIA:
“TMINIMUM 27.8 [82F] Cuyo is HOTTEST FEBRUARY NIGHT IN PHILIPPINES HISTORY; Also High Minimums records in Luzon: 24.5 Tayabas, 24.4 Tuguegarao. And… INDONESIA: 26.4 Tanah Merah; INDIA: 26.4 Puri.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1891313948491723017
“Pilbara cattle stations left under water after Tropical Cyclone Zelia [Western Australia].
“Pastoralists in WA’s Pilbara region are facing livestock losses as floodwater continues to spread. Rivers reached major flooding after record rainfall in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Zelia.”
“Windy Harbour and Northcliffe under threat as WA authorities fight multiple bushfires.
“Bushfires are threatening several communities across Western Australia’s South West. An emergency warning remains in place for Windy Harbour, while other alerts remain for Northcliffe, Wokalup and Uduc.”
“Hailstorms are shifting south with changing climate [Australia]…
“”Places like Sydney, Canberra, that part of the country, are seeing more hailstorm days. “Places which get a lot of hail on the other hand, like Brisbane, are actually starting to see a slight decrease in the number of hailstorm days.””
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-17/hailstorms-shifting-with-changing-climate/104926862
“AUSTRALIA SUMMER COLD SPELL:
“More records of February lowest temperature today mostly in new stations in New South Wales but also in a Victorian station with 56 years of data.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1891380115348574510
“OCEANIA RECORD HEAT:
“A small Central Pacific pool of colder than average waters is surrounded by maritime heat waves. Therefore all Oceania is breaking heat records. Particularly impressive Saipan, Northern Marianas in an almost permanent record heat.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1891079617772913031
“What wet season? All of Hawaii is in a drought…
“It’s technically the rainy season for most of Hawaii, but the entire state is in drought, according to the National Weather Service. The situation worsened for the entire Big Island in the span of a week in January.”
“Rio de Janeiro recorded its hottest day in at least a decade when temperatures reached 44 degrees Celsius (111 F) on Monday as residents flocked to the ocean to try to cool off.
“It was the highest temperature since the southeastern Brazilian city started a climate alert system just over 10 years ago.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/rio-de-janeiro-brazil-taylor-swift-b2699802.html
“After LA, fire crisis reaches Latin America — from Mexico to Argentina.
““There is an environmental transformation in which fires spread and things become more complicated now, under the effects of climate change on a global scale,” said Enrique Jardel, a Mexican fire management specialist…”
“Wildfires in the Andes cause severe soil degradation and hinder ecosystem recovery…
“Unlike Mediterranean ecosystems, where vegetation has evolved strategies to withstand fire, the volcanic soils of Arequipa—one of the driest regions in the world—are not adapted to wildfire disturbances.”
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1072934
“At least four people died and another was injured Monday in a landslide in western Ecuador’s Manabi province following heavy downpours, according to Xinhua.
“The early morning landslide collapsed a house in the city of Portoviejo, The National Risk Management Secretariat said.”
https://azertag.az/en/xeber/landslide_kills_family_of_four_in_ecuadorian_coastal_province-3422735
“Costa Rica Water Crisis: Talamanca Battles Drought & Old Infrastructure…
“The Talamanca region, known for its natural beauty and protected areas, today faces a complex reality due to a severe water shortage… it appears that there is still a long road ahead before authorities can resolve the problem.”
“Citrus fruits are fetching record prices in Jamaica due to a severe shortage locally and across the globe, caused by both disease and climate events.
“A 90-pound field box of oranges costs about $15,000, which is up from about $800 about 15 years ago before the local stock was ravaged by the citrus greening disease.”
“USDA lowers Florida orange forecast to 11.5 million boxes, down 36% from last season.
“The 2024-2025 Florida all-orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 11.5 million boxes, down 500,000 boxes from the January forecast. If realized, this will be 36 percent less than last season’s final production.”
“For some L.A. wildfire survivors, rebuilding won’t be an option.
“Displaced homeowners and renters are facing an economic landscape rife with long-standing affordability and equity concerns, illuminating the gulf between those who can afford to start over from scratch and those who cannot.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/l-wildfire-survivors-rebuilding-will-not-option-rcna191730
“‘Everything we had floated away’: Hurricane Helene survivors help each other as disinformation swirls…
““The trees went snap, snap, snap. A bear came running down from the mountain. Our home, our vehicle, everything we had floated away … It was crazy and so sad to watch,” said Twila Little Brave, 47, a member of the Rosebud Sioux tribe.”
“At least 14 dead in multi-state floods as rivers rise and rescues continue.
“More than a month’s worth of rain deluged much of Kentucky in less than 24 hours and set the deadly flooding into motion. “We just got hit by one of the most significant natural disasters we’ve seen in our lifetime,” Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said at a Monday news conference.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/17/us/deadly-winter-storm-eastern-us/index.html
“Mount Washington Observatory records 161 mph wind speeds…
“Wind gusts of more than 160 mph were recorded at the highest peak in New Hampshire on Monday… More than 1,000 customers lost power in New Hampshire…”
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/power-outages-climb-hampshire-high-172110226.html
“It’s official: Montreal breaks historic snowfall record with back-to-back snowstorms.
“The city of Montreal received more snow between last Thursday and Sunday than during any other four-day period on record, and services are being interrupted.”
“Record mildness in Nunavut [Arctic Canada]!
“On the night of February 12-13, the station of Pond Inlet [72.4°N] reached an exceptional high of -0.7°C (30°C above average!). This is a new MONTHLY record, smashing the previous record by a huge margin (-3.3°C in 1986).”
https://x.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1890615528235950396
“Monday ice update – Arctic sea ice extent is currently the *lowest* on record (JAXA data).”
• about 570,000 km² below the 2010s mean
• about 1,140,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 1,670,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 2,040,000 km² below the 1980s mean [Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3lif5d277zc2v
“Meanwhile, Antarctic sea-ice extent is now ranked third lowest for the day — behind (surprise!) only 2023 and 2024.
“Put this together and the planet continues to experience record daily lows for global sea-ice extent.”
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3licdr6fjy22t
“Extreme weather is our new reality. We must accept it and begin planning…
“We are firmly in the post-climate change world now, and the serious implications of this demand honest acknowledgment. The reality is that we are living now in a time of continual disasters that are unfolding alongside our slower, planetary scale disaster… we need to prepare.”
“Shipowners take aim at biofuels amid warning decarbonisation drive will make climate change worse…
“Shipping’s drive to decarbonise by 2050 could actually worsen climate change because of the side effects of ramping up biofuel production, according to campaigners… biofuel use could lead to area size of Germany being cleared for plant-based oils.”
“Across the world, conservation projects reel after abrupt US funding cuts…
“U.S. funding has been spent on a wide range of conservation activities, such as support for wildlife rangers, community conservancies, and forest mapping… conservationists around the world say the effects of the disruption are arriving fast.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
Bombing the Aswan High Dam has been around since it was completed in the early seventies, and maybe earlier, while it was being built. An interesting fact is that before it was built the Nile had been the only truly sustainable irrigated agriculture system ever to have existed because the annual floods flushed out salts and laid down sediment to replenish degraded soil. Since it started up the delta has been losing productive land at an accelerating rate.
Thank you, George. That is interesting re the Aswan dam and soil degradation – a nice example of a human “solution” mutating into a whole new set of problems.
Dams loom quite large in my consciousness when I am doing these threads because they are geopolitical flashpoints (eg the Tishrin dam in Syria or China’s potential megadam on the Yarlung Zangbo/Brahmaputra river), military vulnerabilities (eg the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine), potential climate disasters (eg the Orsk dam in Russia or the Derna in Libya) and important power sources that can fail under drought (eg the Mazar dam in Ecuador or the Kariba on the border between Zambia and Zimbabwe).
Head spun off today.
Same here!!!!!! 🤯
Devastating. And I’m not even in the crosshairs at the moment. The “good” thing about it for me is that I am not afraid of death at this point. There is an element of relief in the thought of it.
Well, with orange grove die off there’s opportunity for BAU
5-R Ranch at Lake Wales Purchased by Developer in $50 Million Deal
Robert Connors | Last updated Dec 08, 2024 9:34am0
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The purchase of 4,158 acres of land on the southwest side of Lake Wales by an active land-development company may be a harbinger of yet another major development proposal.
The long-discussed 5-R Ranch property could potentially host many thousands of homes along with commercial and industrial uses if purchaser Richland Communities decides the time is ripe to develop the sprawling property south of Lake Wales Airport.
Courtesy Polk Property Appraiser
The sprawling 5-R Ranch property southwest of Lake Wales has been proposed for development in the past, but was met with a hostile reception by area residents who described the site as flood-prone and unsuitable for development.
Richland purchased the property for a local-record $50 million, but an official with the company said that the firm has no immediate plans for the site, which has a significant population of wildlife, including some endangered species. Much of the property was included in a “Big Green Network” during the Lake Wales Envisioned planning process. That described network of environmental lands would place limits on the outward growth of the city, but requires direct purchase of lands or the acquisition of development rights.
So, hopefully no hurricanes will spoil there plans,
“Development interests see the Lake Wales Ridge as fertile ground for houses, given the collapse of the citrus industry. Former growers have become land-sellers for sprawling new housing projects.”
My youngest and I saw ‘Paddington 3’ a few weeks ago. The plot revolves around a search for the lost city of El Dorado in the Peruvian Jungle, which (apologies in advance for the spoiler) turns out be a sort of Arcadia for bears. El Dorado’s treasures turn out to be, not gold and jewels, but endless groves of plump oranges…
So, what do Paddington and his human family do? Introduce industry, of course, by constructing a large marmalade-making machine. It gave me a wry chuckle.
“We are firmly in the post-climate change world now, and the serious implications of this demand honest acknowledgment. The reality is that we are living now in a time of continual disasters that are unfolding alongside our slower, planetary scale disaster… we need to prepare.”
This self-righteous sloganeering is precisely what “we” have been doing so far. The reality is that the concept “climate action” has always been an excuse not to do anything. What we needed was drastic economic, political and social action based on the principle of substantive equality. That is the only way billions of people would voluntarily coordinate and cooperate on a global scale towards building a rationally managed global society. Or, failing that, effect a controlled and peaceful transition back to a world of locally sustainable societies.
Mitigating climate change is necessarily a part of that, but one entirely dependent on the creation of a society that is structurally capable of satisfying human needs universally. On the other hand, selective alarm about temperatures, pollution and “Those people over there will be worse off than us, what to do about it?” is the opposite of everything I’ve just described. It has to be, because the real solution to those things is fundamentally antagonistic to the short-term self-interest of the socio-economic class this columnist comprises.
Subsistence peasants are not going to make themselves even more miserable, or accept subsistence wages as climate refugees so that “Gaia” or me or anyone else can live the green dream. And accounting for the combined crisis of both climate change (including its effects on the global north, which are routinely understated precisely because actual change is out of the question) and net energy decline, forcing them to accept those terms of existence will not be possible either. That is the reality someone like her never talks about, because it is effectively the death of everything she believes she is.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Jupiviv, there is not much demand in the MSM for articles advocating radical, socialist de-growth of the sort you envision.
And there’s even less for the truth, which is that civilisation is simply going to self-organise itself into a brick wall of physical and financial limits, killing most, if not all, of us in the process. That being said, George Monbiot is venturing into that territory today:
“There are many ways Trump could trigger a global collapse… When a system has lost its resilience, a small external shock can trigger cascading collapse.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/feb/18/donald-trump-global-collapse-wildfires-pandemic-financial-crisis
I will keep trying, with things I said I would not do.
Here is a link to a clip of civilization, with Rodney Dangerfield as its collapse-aware antagonist, from Caddyshack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vU5YS6MvlWk
Rodney Dangerfield, Earth Wind & Fire, classic Porsche 911… they were halcyon days. 😆
Hello Pan
The Nile, Lake Nasser and the Aswan Dam are a true example of the paradox of ‘progress’. It is worth elaborating on what George Kaplan has already pointed out.
When Egypt built the Aswan High Dam in the 1950s and 1960s, it was considered a triumph of modernisation and control over nature. The country gained the ability to control Nile flooding, optimise irrigation and generate hydroelectric power. The dam, completed in 1970, was to lay the foundation for a more stable and prosperous Egypt. But now, more than 50 years later, it is clear that this technological achievement carries an insoluble paradox within it.
Before the dam was built, the Egyptian delta was one of the most fertile agricultural areas in the world. Each year, the flooding of the Nile created a natural cycle: excess salt was washed away and nutrient-rich silt from Ethiopia was deposited on the farmland. For centuries, this made Egypt one of the most stable food-producing regions in the world!
But the Aswan Dam has completely disrupted this natural balance. The fertile silt that normally reached the delta is now collected in Lake Nasser. This forces Egypt to use more than one million tonnes of artificial fertiliser every year to compensate for the declining soil fertility. At the same time, the salinisation of the farmland is increasing because the river’s natural flushing mechanism has disappeared.
Another problem introduced by the dam is extreme water loss through evaporation. Lake Nasser, one of the largest artificial lakes in the world, loses 10 to 15 billion cubic metres of water annually through evaporation, almost one fifth of Egypt’s annual water quota.
In addition, there is currently a lot of regional political tension surrounding the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Ethiopia is giving that country the power to influence the water supply to Egypt. Egypt’s historical control over the Nile is now being undermined by new dam projects upstream, making Egypt even more dependent on external water sources and political negotiations.
In addition to the effects on agriculture and water supply, the dam has caused irreparable damage to the fishing industry. The cutting off of the flow of silt to the Mediterranean has deprived the marine ecosystem of its natural nutrients. This has led to a reduction of more than 50% in the fishing yield for Egyptian fishermen. Although Lake Nasser has offered new fishing opportunities, this does not compensate for the losses in the delta and on the coast.
Then there is the issue of soil erosion. Without the annual sedimentation, the Nile delta would shrink further each year due to coastal erosion. Farmland is slowly disappearing into the sea, while rising sea levels are pushing salt water further and further inland. This worsens the situation even more, making parts of the delta unusable for agriculture. The Aswan Dam is a classic example of a technological ‘solution’ that creates a new, deeper crisis. This is how we attempt to control nature, with partly unforeseen and irreversible disastrous consequences and political conflicts.
Thank you, Zip, for that overview – most interesting. I found this recent article, which offers a bit of context for that alarming simulation on the Nziv website and references the GERD, too:
“As Ethiopia and Israel forge closer water cooperation, alarm bells ring in Egypt. The belief in Egypt is that Ethiopia is being used by Israel and other powers to undermine the Arab world’s most populous state and bring it down to its knees.”
https://www.newarab.com/news/alarm-egypt-ethiopia-israel-forge-closer-water-ties
Repeat after me – It’s not my fault. It’s not my fault. It’s not my fault. Now everyone should feel better.
The only thing more entertaining than economics & religion is American politics. 😉
“economics & religion is American politics” 🤓