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“Climate change target of 2C is ‘dead’, says renowned climate scientist.
“The pace of global heating has been significantly underestimated, according to renowned climate scientist Prof James Hansen, who said the international 2C target is “dead”.”
“Just half a degree rise of global warming will triple the size of the area of Earth that is considered to be too hot for humans.
“The new area will be equivalent to the size of the US… “Our findings show the potentially deadly consequences if global warming reaches 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit),” Dr. Tom Matthews, Senior Lecturer …at King’s College London, said…”
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/global-warming-earth-extreme-heat-b2692032.html
“Ancient Climate Reconstruction Links Past and Future…
“For instance, paleoclimatology tells us that smaller ice sheets in the Pliocene caused sea levels to swell more than 20 meters higher than today. Is such a rise in store for the rest of the century?”
https://eos.org/research-spotlights/ancient-climate-reconstruction-links-past-and-future
“Temperatures at the north pole soared more than 20C above average on Sunday, crossing the threshold for ice to melt…
“The Copernicus data showed daily average temperatures were more than 20C above average near the north pole on Sunday… The findings were confirmed by an Arctic snow buoy, which logged absolute temperatures of 0.5C on Sunday.”
“Since 1979, January has lost 1.88 million square kilometers (726,000 square miles) of Arctic sea ice, which could cover the state of Alaska and then some.
“Read more in our latest sea ice analysis
[National Snow and Ice Data Center].
https://x.com/NSIDC/status/1887207585255694358
“Global sea ice area was 13.15 million km² on February 4, 2025, the lowest area on record.” [Sam Carana]
https://x.com/SamCarana/status/1887307582295146774
“A man died after medical technology including sleep apnoea equipment stopped working as a result of Storm Eowyn, the Irish parliament has been told.
“Sinn Fein TD for Mayo Rose Conway-Walsh said she was informed of the death by a constituent.”
“Ministers are topping up flood defence investment in England to a “record” £2.65bn, after accusing the previous government of “putting lives at risk” by under-spending.
“An extra £250m is being pledged on top of the £2.4bn previously announced, to shore up defences and protect an extra 66,500 properties from flooding…”
“Particles from vehicle tyre wear are the biggest source of nanoplastic pollution in the high Alps, a pioneering project has revealed…
“Millions of tonnes of plastic waste are dumped in the environment and much is broken down into small fragments. Microplastics were already known to have polluted the entire planet, from the summit of Mount Everest to the deepest oceans.”
“Moroccan government blames unemployment on drought…
“Morocco’s prime minister Aziz Akhannouch defended his government’s job creation policy despite a surge in unemployment which he blamed on drought… The unemployment rate surged to 13.3% in 2024 from 13% a year earlier, with the farming sector losing most jobs.”
https://northafricapost.com/84065-moroccan-government-blames-unemployment-on-drought.html
“How climate change is causing ‘ecological grief’ for farmers in Ghana…
“In addition to crop failures due to extreme weather, individuals can experience ecological grief in response to declining yields and other changes, particularly where this directly impacts their lives and livelihoods.”
“Women at Risk: The Gendered Dimension of Climate Change and Migration in West Africa…
“Women’s social restrictions and economic disadvantages contribute to the fact that they are 14 times more likely to die in climate disasters. Women are often literally left behind by climate change migration: Cameroon, for instance, prevents women from applying for a passport without the written consent of a male family member.”
“Rubio Will Skip G20 In South Africa Because Of Its Land And Climate Change Policies.
““South Africa is doing very bad things. Expropriating private property. Using G20 to promote ‘solidarity, equality, & sustainability.’ In other words: DEI and climate change,” Rubio said on X.”
https://www.rferl.org/a/rubio-g20-south-africa-trump-dei-ramaphosa-musk/33305031.html
“New February record in the Rodrigues Island (autonomous island of Mauritius) – 33.7 [92.7F] Plaine Corail.
The record heat is set to go on for weeks, so we definitely see more records on the way.
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1886482494268301772
“The sea was once a blessing for the Pakistani city of Gwadar. But it’s become a curse…
“Rain battered Gwadar for almost 30 consecutive hours last February. Torrents washed out roads, bridges, and lines of communication, briefly cutting the peninsula town off from the rest of Pakistan.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/gwadar-ap-balochistan-homes-pakistani-b2693130.html
“Kashmir’s saffron growers experiment with indoor farming as climate pressures mount.
“Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall pose a risk to saffron production, which has dropped from 8 metric tons in the financial year 2010-11 to 2.6 metric tons in 2023-24.”
“Odisha [India] is reeling under a severe heat wave, with temperatures soaring above 35°C in at least 10 cities across the state…
“According to reports, the temperature in Koraput reached 40 degrees Celsius [104F] in January, breaking a 52-year-old record.”
“Climate change poses threat to winter crops in Rajshahi [Bangladesh]…
“The duration of winter, along with its intensity, has changed remarkably over the last couple of years, which is detrimental to winter crop farming.”
https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/nation/372772/climate-change-poses-threat-to-winter-crops-in
“As Lychee Harvests Dwindle, Guangdong’s Farmers and Artists Ponder How to Take on Climate Change.
“In the face of increasingly extreme weather conditions, unlikely bonds are being forged in the southern province between concerned citizens and the growers of their produce.”
“Record-breaking snowfall is continuing to cause significant disruption to parts of Japan.
“The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued warnings for heavy snowfall not only along the Sea of Japan coast but also on the Pacific side, where such conditions are uncommon…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cednzq8nj3jo
“SE ASIA RECORD HEAT; never ending record heat in INDONESIA, which has been breaking records for nearly 700 days, every single day.
“Today Highest Minimums ever recorded in February: 27.8 Bau Bau all time High Tmin; 27.7 [81.9F] Sangkapura Island.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1887063622083326224
“Monsoon rains have led to the worst floods in modern history in North Borneo with over 9000 people displaced from their homes in six districts in Sarawak.
“The Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) forecasts a second wave of flooding to inundate the region between February 8 and 12.”
https://anglican.ink/2025/02/05/kuching-bishop-asks-for-assistance-in-wake-of-borneo-monsoon-floods/
“It’s official: Australia’s ocean surface was the hottest on record in 2024…
“Rapid warming of Earth’s oceans is setting off a raft of worrying changes. It can lead to less nutrients in surface waters, which in turn leads to fewer fish… Warm water causes coral bleaching… Hotter oceans are also linked to weather extremes…”
“Queensland confirmed another death on Tuesday as the premier described the devastation caused by the recent historic floods as “incredible”.
“The body of an 82-year-old woman was found on Tuesday in a paddock near the North Queensland town of Ingham.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/queenland-floods-damage-forecast-b2691675.html
“Temperatures could soar to 50 degrees [122F] this week in remote parts of Australia as a severe heatwave washes over the continent.
“Weatherzone said extreme heat was forecast for the Pilbara and Kimberley districts in WA, with possible readings of 50C on Friday.”
“Overland Track remains closed as crews battle bushfires in Tasmanian wilderness area.
“Fire crews are responding on the ground and in the air to 17 incidents on Tasmania’s west coast, with the Overland Track still closed after a dry lightning strike ignited a fire on Monday.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/06/tasmania-fires-overland-track-closed
“Patagonia engulfed in flames: one dead, 18,000 hectares burned.
“Patagonia is weathering the onslaught of four massive wildfires, which have led to the death of a beloved local, the destruction of almost 20,000 hectares, and over 1,000 evacuations. Social media is awash with calls for financial aid from those who have lost their homes…”
https://buenosairesherald.com/environment/patagonia-engulfed-in-flames-one-dead-18000-acres-burned
“EXTRAORDINARY EVENT. WORLD CLIMATIC HISTORY REWRITTEN.
“46.5 [115.7F] Rivadavia ARGENTINA – HOTTEST DAY EVER RECORDED IN FEBRUARY IN SOUTH AMERICA. Also National record in PARAGUAY destroyed.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1886942910672986335
“Brazil Faces Dual Weather Crisis With Heatwave And Heavy Rains…
“…the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul is enduring remarkable heat… with Quaraí recording 43.8C [110.8F], marks the highest temperature recorded in the state in over 115 years of monitoring.”
https://evrimagaci.org/tpg/brazil-faces-dual-weather-crisis-with-heatwave-and-heavy-rains-187565
“Never ending record heat in the CARIBBEAN. Montego Bay JAMAICA, after having its hottest January night in history, had also its hottest February night with a minimum of 24.7C [76.5F] .
“100% of the tropics are smashing heat records no-stop, the exact opposite trend of a Niña’s.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1887124016667996358
“Water is the other US-Mexico border crisis, and the supply crunch is getting worse…
“Growing water use is already overtaxing limited supplies from nearly all of the region’s cross-border rivers, streams and aquifers. Many of these sources are contaminated with agricultural pollutants, untreated waste and other substances, further reducing the usability of available water.”
“Toxic dangers lurk in LA, even in homes that didn’t burn.
“Even as firefighters douse the deadly LA wildfires, a more insidious danger remains. Chemicals from the ashy residue of thousands of burned homes and cars, scorched plastic pipes and even lifesaving fire retardants have blanketed parts of the region.”
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/toxic-danger-lurk-burn-los-angeles-fire
“Russian River [Nothern California] reaches flood stage, threatening homes in low-lying areas.
“The rain-swollen Russian River reached flood stage in multiple places Wednesday morning in the wake of an atmospheric river-fueled storm that brought a deluge of rain and lashing winds to the Bay Area.”
“Trump’s radical plan to root out top government scientists who believe in climate change.
“More than 1,000 EPA employees, including scientists involved in climate change research and policy, have been put on immediate notice by the Trump administration.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14359569/Trump-plan-scientists-climate-change.html
“Doge staffers enter NOAA headquarters and incite reports of cuts and threats…
“Project 2025, written by several former Trump staffers, has called for the agency to be “broken up and downsized”, claiming the agency is “harmful to US prosperity” for its role in climate science.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/04/doge-noaa-headquarters
“Jeff Bezos’s $10bn Earth Fund cuts ties with climate group.
“Jeff Bezos’s $10bn philanthropic fund has stopped backing the world’s leading voluntary climate standard setter, following rising scrutiny over its influence on the body, in a move seen as the billionaire’s latest effort to curry favour with US President Donald Trump.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c3bf3f5f-afa2-44ce-8314-18ad321cd983
“Most big polluters to miss UN deadline for 2035 climate targets…
“The EU, Australia, South Africa and India are among the big polluters expected to miss a UN deadline for new climate targets, coming up against economic constraints and political pressure following the Trump election.”
https://www.ft.com/content/021e3888-859e-412d-a043-8a8162ee58b1
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
Nice early upload this morning. This article must have just dropped. I found it really disturbing. Mystified?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/06/hottest-january-on-record-climate-scientists-global-temperatures-high
January 2025 is disturbing. As Zeke Hausfather says, “It stands out as anomalous even by the standards of the last two years.”
The problem I have with what Hansen says is that the earth energy imbalance is measured directly by satellites and fell by a lot through 23 and 24 (see Eliot Jacobson). This data wasn’t issued when Hansen’s paper was being reviewed. The EEI (net incoming short wave energy, i.e. incident minus reflected, minus outgoing long wave energy) gives the rate of warming of the overall planet. Therefore if the rate fell there should have been a marked reduction in the temperature increases in those two years (all else being equal) not a step increase. If the EEI measured is reasonably accurate then the only way I can explain things is if the split of net energy incoming (between air, shallow water, deep oceans, land, melting ice) changes such that more goes to the air and shallow oceans and less to the others, mainly the deep oceans.
Also, if ship emissions are responsible, why didn’t the heating show up in 2020 to 2022 or earlier, because the switch to low sulphur fuels didn’t happen overnight, it had been gradual from when the intended rule change was announced -i.e. 2018 onward.
Somewhere the Argos float data is being analysed, which should give more clarification, but I don’t know how quickly it is updated and Trump/Musk might kill some things off. Their data are used to tune the EEI so it’s more complicated than us amateurs can really look at.
But the most important Hansen messages are unarguable – two degrees is dead and the earth sensitivity is much higher than previously thought.
George, you make some very good points and I would be interested to hear Hansen’s own take on why temps have been sharply rising when the EEI has been experiencing a dip in its long-term rise.
The EEI does routinely fluctuate during its ascent but, given that albedo-loss from sea-ice is part of that equation and we’ve seen very low ice levels globally, I’m actually surprised that the dip was as pronounced as it was.
In his paper, Hansen predicts that temps will oscillate around the 1.5C mark during the (now current) La Nina and over the next few years. Obviously, we were sitting well above that at 1.75C for Jan… So, what gives?
I remain pretty convinced that reduced shipping emissions are at least part of the puzzle just because ocean-warming has been so evident in shipping regions:
“The strongest reduction occurs in the North Atlantic, the Caribbeans and the South China Sea, reaching 3 cm−3. These are regions with the busiest shipping lanes and thus strongest reduction of ship emissions… In the tropical North Atlantic, IMO2020 induced change in Nd can be more than 50% of the total anthropogenic change.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01442-3
A drop in the EEI would be expected because of the marked increase in surface and atmospheric temperature, and hence outgoing radiation. I don’t have much idea on the relative magnitude compared to albedo changes though.
George, I found this global temperature report for 2024 by Berkeley, which has a shaded map showing changes in regional energy imbalance since 2020. Robert Rohde, the author says:
“Spatially, the recent change in Earth’s energy imbalance is concentrated over the North Atlantic, South Atlantic, North Pacific, Europe, and the Southern Ocean. The change in the Southern Ocean is primarily related to record low sea ice cover in recent years.
“The changes in other ocean basins may be directly related to the reduction in marine sulfur aerosol emissions, which would be expected to allow more sunlight to reach the Earth’s surface.”
https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2024/
Apparently, this satellite info is not a given for very much longer:
“Right now, four satellites are flying with CERES instruments: Terra, Aqua, plus two newer ones that are also nearing their end. Yet only one replacement is in the works. Its life expectancy? Five years.
““Within the next 10 years, we’re going to go from four missions down to one, and the one remaining will be past its prime,” said Norman G. Loeb, the NASA scientist who leads CERES. “To me, that’s really sobering.””
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/03/climate/nasa-satellites-data.html
DOGE coming for the NOAA? Get ready to lose a lot of valuable weather and climate data.
Those agencies were allready functioning on behalf of destructive GDP growth.
Yeah but so is DOGE. Maybe we shouldn’t have any agencies at all. Just pure, unadulterated efficiency. Weirdly, the longer I uhhh… look at Sweet Karoline’s morning press brief the more I become convinced this is the only way to ensure America’s prosperity.
Nate Hagens describes the global socio-economic superorganism as “blind, hungry and in charge… In pursuit of economic growth, modern human culture appears as a self-organized, mindless, energy seeking Superorganism, functioning in similar ways to a brainless amoeba…”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800919310067
The wilful blindness towards or wholesale rejection of information and narratives that threaten to obstruct global growth is to be expected, depressing though that is.
Kord, I really hope not. It feels like the lights are going out a bit.
Human overshoot is continuing to denude the biosphere. But we can’t be the problem, can we? We’re just too damn exceptional for that to be true.
Sissyfuss, what you say is true. We are the problem.
It is very hard to apply that framing to people you love, though… And even the “rich” consumers of the West are born locked into the planet-eating system and, for the most part, just trying to keep their heads above water and squeeze a little joy out of life.
My heart stopped a couple of beats, thought I was about to attend my funeral. I misread “overshoot” as the unspeakable o-word, & the damage it has caused! 😉
Speaking of the NOAA: today’s CO2 level was > 5ppm’s over last year’s.
It has been over 4.0ppm above 2024 every day this month (and most of last month). So you can see why the Muskatelles are so anxious to tear the agency to pieces).
The vast amount of methane hydraulic fracturing releases into the troposphere doesn’t remain methane, it’s hydrolyzed into CO2 and water vapor, similar to being flared: ie they are a latent source of CO2 not included in the 40 Bln tons mankind exhausts.
Argentina is the latest country to adopt th e practice of using the earth’s crust for a pincushion, releasing clouds of methane in the process: not 2 years later Patagonia is ablaze (as well as forests in Argentina).
Art Berman’s latest post ridicules the concept of Peak oil even as he admits fracturing wasn’t something they considered when prognosticating peak oil’s impact (a petroleur?!). If that is indeed possible, then it is just as possible that the same process that changed the game for Peak oil changed the game for all climate calculations that didn’t include hydraulic fracturing (that would be all of them) something of which I am (lest you haven’t noticed) completely convinced.
The so-called bridge fuel to the energy transition is a bridge to Our Gutterdammerung, as we aren’t just “denuding the biosphere”, we are, in full knowledge of the fact, actively and deliberately, accelerating the rate at which we’re poisoning it.
And the USA, as Rubio so churlishly demonstrates by using any impediment to “America’s prosperity” as a cudgel to beat opposition to US Free-for-all Enterprise, is at center stage.
Rob, I had a look at Art Berman’s latest and he gives this interesting reply in the comments section:
“I’m acutely aware of the Metacrisis and do not believe that oil supply – or climate change – is among the factors that will most shape the coming decade.”
He then lists his “Five horsemen for the coming decade: Financial Overshoot, Geopolitics, Complexity & Supply Chains, Social Contract Governance and Ecological Damage.”
I am very much with him on financial overshoot, as this is the key nexus where the limits to growth (of which declining EROI from oil in the aggregate is one) meet and find expression. A major financial crisis then obviously has knock effects on our ability to maintain complexity and supply-chains.
Climate change is in the mix for me though, certainly as a secondary driver, potentially catalysing the financial crisis via insurance problems or striking such a devastating blow to an important region or city that it badly shakes the faith of markets and investors.
https://www.artberman.com/blog/peak-oil-requiem-for-a-failed-paradigm/
I read that from one of Berman’s previous posts, and it seems more antics with semantics than an actual argument. The financial imbroglio predicted shows every sign of being precipitated by a banking/insurance crisis caused by (fires in LA & hurricanes in Fl) the astounding level 0f destruction of highly leveraged assets because 0f, you know, climate change. Geopolitical caos resulting from the worst polluter on the planet with the world’s most well-heeled population whining about “prosperity” , ie from US climate change policy (or lack thereof); supply chain breakdown and crop failure resulting in the breakdown of Social contract…. A direct result of CC, and the last, ecological damage , well that one’s too obvious to even detail. All of these are all encapsulated in the failure of AmErika’s Kamikaze Kapitalism model of criminal financialisation, and its effects on geopolitics, etc. ie the horsemen all pull the stagecoach of destruction while being lashed with the whip of private capital seeking private profit from the public’s pain and servitude to Capital’s absolute power.
Ie, unfettered Capitalism and Climate Change, which Mr. Berman prefers to treat as 2 separate problems, are inextricably linked: they are the same problem: without the one there is not the other.
So you can see why Berman’s argument comes off as somewhat specious to me.
Antics with semantics, indeed, Rob. 😆
There’s already so much interplay between our various converging crises that trying to rate them as threats discretely is of limited utility, really.
Well, by coincidence I just caught a bit of a panel discussion with Dr. James Hansen and other climate scientists on YouTube
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=d6wOjk2OCZQ&t=3466s
An engaging discussion on groundbreaking research that reveals the unexpected drivers behind the recent unprecedented rise in global temperatures. Moderated by SDSN President Professor Jeffrey Sachs, this virtual event explored Dr. James Hansen and colleagues’ findings in the latest publication, “Global Warming Has Accelerated,” their implications for climate sensitivity, and the urgent need for alternative approaches to mitigate the looming “point of no return.” It will featured interventions by the following individuals:
Dr. James Hansen, Lead Author and Director, Climate Science, Awareness, and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute
Dr. Pushker Kharecha, Deputy Director, Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute
Dr. Susanne Bauer, Climate Researcher, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Mr. Anton Keskinen, Executive Director, Operaatio Arktis
The paper highlighted during the event was published in Environment and is available to read here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/…
Afraid did not have the time to listen to it all my but the beginning and end
Not too hopeful about what was presented
Guy McPherson’s 2026 prediction may be moving closer to reality. Wonder how hot the Northern Hemisphere will be in the Summer of 2025? Spring might bring some surprises.
“Holding long-term global warming to two degrees Celsius—the fallback target of the Paris climate accord—is now “impossible,” according to a stark though hotly debated new analysis published by leading scientists.”
https://phys.org/news/2025-02-climate-scientist-declares-2c-goal.html
….
Old advise –
“Don’t talk politics or religion.”
There is no way I would. Stupid voters & religious cultists are not responsible for anything unpleasant. The sad part is that they will not survive NTHE.
To parapharse Tower of Power,
Ain’t nothin’ you can say
Nothin’ you can do
You’ll feel so bad, yeah
You’ll feel so blue
“I got to make it right
For everyone concerned ”
When I look at this scum species’ individuals, that line is a joke.
Come now, TR, why so glum? Rex Tillerson, former CEO Exxon-Mobile and ex Sec.of State under Trump, clearly stated we will do what we always have done..ADAPT…he even pointed out that the models are “all over the map”.
Remember The Don said he was “dumb as a rock”.
But the Don has a habit of saying such, so please take no offense at all that should read this please. I’m apolitical
Too bad Hunter S Thompson isn’t around now…we have plenty of Gonzo to
write about ….
I don’t know if GM knows Sam Carana, or if SC is familiar with GM’s prognostications, but Carana has predicted a confluence of 3 events: solar maximum, CO2 and methane at unprecedented levels in the atmosphere, and a likely El Niño heating event that make 2026 an NTE, if not for humanity, than certainly for other species (such as corals, eg).