Huge thanks to Gerry for being this month’s sponsor. He has asked me to post the following: Still alive in ’25 – we’re all in this together! Find supportive community and resources at postdoom.com (founded by Michael Dowd; RIP).
“An ominous year: the climate change omens for 2025 look very dark indeed.
“Anyone concerned about climate change will view 2025 with some trepidation, for two reasons: First, global warming continues unabated. Secondly, where one might have hoped for an increased awareness of the climate crisis, a strong anti-Green tide has swept through the political landscape at national and international levels.”
“Global Banks Make Little Headway in Addressing Climate Change…
“Overall, BNEF’s research adds to reports that say any headway made to date by banks isn’t nearly enough for the planet to reach the crucial goal of net zero emissions by mid-century.”
“Donald Trump wiped out dozens of Joe Biden’s climate initiatives in first week blitz…
“Among the largest rescissions included ending the ban on new offshore drilling and removing the US from the Paris climate agreement and other commitments under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. He also terminated federal offices dedicated to climate and environmental justice…”
https://www.ft.com/content/c76943c6-38e5-46e7-9a8b-58ab638ed04f
“New study: Ocean surface temperatures warming four times faster than in 1980s…
“While ocean temperatures were rising at about 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade in the late 1980s, they are now increasing at 0.27 degrees Celsius per decade. The findings help explain why 2023 and early 2024 saw unprecedented ocean temperatures.”
“Below is my simple-minded modeling of sea surface temperature warming by using decadal differences.
“The fact that the linear trendline slopes upward means warming is accelerating and shows the current rate of ocean warming is about 0.32°C/decade.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lgspdmwwf22x
“Just in: preliminary Global Temperature anomaly shows that January 2025 will be the WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD with a final anomaly >+0.7C vs 1991/2020 normal.
[January 2024 was the previous warmest Jan at 0.7C above the 1991/2020 average, i.e. 1.66C over pre-industrial, per Copernicus]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1884685931027829174
“As of January 28, 2025, Arctic sea-ice extent is currently ranked second lowest for the day.
“With the upcoming Arctic heatwave (up to 28°C/50°F above average in certain parts), I expect sea ice extent will be at a record daily low within a week.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lgv5ntl4t22i
“Weatherwatch: melting permafrost threatens landscapes and lives in Arctic regions…
“Landscapes are collapsing. Whole towns and dams were built on the false assumption that the ground would always be frozen and provide permanent foundations. Oil spills and sumps were likewise abandoned, believing that they would be contained because the ice would never melt.”
“Russia comes in from the cold, with flowers blooming around Moscow in January…
“Russia’s Hydrometeorological Research Center reported Tuesday that temperatures in eight Russian regions reached highs on Monday that broke decades-old records.”
https://apnews.com/article/russia-climate-warming-temperatures-4793d1b5fa4db439050c6682625755f9
“With unusually warm January, Kyiv cherry blossoms bloom early — photos.
“Oleksandr Voznyi, the department’s head, noted that cherry blossoms usually bloom in April, but this unusual January flowering is linked to an abnormally warm winter. He pointed out that the early blooming was preceded by record-breaking temperatures in the capital…”
https://english.nv.ua/life/warm-january-triggers-early-cherry-blossoms-in-kyiv-50485708.html
“HISTORIC WINTER WARMTH IN EUROPE – hundreds of January records smashed in all Central-East including capitals like Belgrade and Zagreb.
“Slovak national monthly record of highest minimum… Croatia broke records in nearly every station…”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1884642884709650617
“Latest Storm Daniel damage estimate reaches €5 billion [Greece]…
“The latest evaluation of the total repair cost greatly exceeds an initial estimate of between €1.5 and 2 billion and constitutes approximately 2.5% of the GDP in 2023, the deputy minister noted.”
https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1260156/latest-storm-daniel-damage-estimate-reaches-e5-billion/
“Concern has been growing in the last few hours over the flooding of the Lamone following the heavy storms, still ongoing, in the Apennines [Italy].
“The rains have in fact caused a rapid rise above the red threshold of the river’s hydrometric levels, which have set a historic record, in Marradi, with 2 meters and 68 cm, shortly after 11 am.”
“Five skiers killed in French Alps after avalanches hit off-piste areas…
“An avalanche in the French Alps has killed four Norwegian skiers who were swept away by an off-piste torrent of snow and ice in the southeastern Savoie region. Also on Wednesday, a separate avalanche near Chamonix, in the Haute-Savoie region, killed a Swiss skier…”
“France has been devastated by flooding as the latest storm to hit the country left roads submerged and villages underwater…
“Residents in several towns and cities used boats to escape their flooded homes as rivers and waterways broke their banks after the country was battered by heavy rain.”
“Valencia councillor ‘caught shopping for wine online’ at flood relief meeting…
“Nearly three months after flash floods ravaged part of the Valencia region, turning streets into rivers, sweeping away cars and killing more than 220 people, many continue to reel from the worst natural disaster to hit Spain this century.”
“Malaga registers second highest minimum January temperature on record…
“On Monday 27 January, a thermometer at the airport recorded the second highest minimum temperature on record in Malaga, when the lowest temperature of 15.4C was reached at 5.30am…”
“Climate change could submerge The Gambia’s capital.
“The existence of Gambia’s capital, Banjul, is under threat from rising sea levels and flash flooding. Many people, including residents and fishers, have been displaced, while businesses and offices have moved away to safety.”
https://dialogue.earth/en/climate/climate-change-could-submerge-the-gambias-capital/
“Record heat in KENYA – 39.8 [103.6F] at Lodwar is a new January highest temperature record.
“Lodwar is the world’s hottest place for altitudes >500m asl. In 2024 it had a year average temperature of 30.8C. No site in the world at that altitude had ever seen such a hot year.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1884402565187792920
“RECORD HEAT IN MADAGASCAR.
Relentless record heat is sweeping 100% of the tropical countries and it will just get worse in February. The opposite trend of what happens during a Nina. HOTTEST NIGHT ON RECORD in the port to Toamasina (Tamatave) with a Tmin of 27.6C [81.7F] beaten by over 1C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1884782050559066269
“Shivajinagar sizzles at 35.9°C [96.6F], breaks all-time January heat record for Pune [Maharashtra, India].
“Shivajinagar’s maximum temperature was a significant five degrees above normal, marking Wednesday as the hottest January day in Pune’s recorded history.”
“At least five people were killed and thousands were forced to evacuate across two Malaysian states on Borneo after days of heavy rain triggered floods and landslides.
“Government data showed more than 700 millimeters (27.6 inches) of rain fell on parts of Sabah and Sarawak.”
“COCOS ISLANDS again!
“33.0C [91.4F] and January record of highest temperature again in the tiny Australian territory of Cocos Islands which has been breaking records nearly every single month since late 2023 and it continues to re-break them.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1884511809576522028
“EXTRAORDINARY MINIMUM 36.0 [96.8F] in AUSTRALIA.
“BOM seems to confirm the insane minimum temperature set at Murchison on 24 and 25 January which is the highest ever recorded in Western Australia and one of the highest ever recorded in all Southern Hemisphere history.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1884564225378718003
“Queenslanders prepare as continuing heavy rain causes flooding in north.
“More heavy rain is forecast for Queensland’s north tropical coast, where some locations have received up to 700 [27+ inches] millimetres of rain since Monday morning.”
“‘Leave immediately’: Bushfire emergency continues to unfold in Victoria’s south-west…
“The emergency warning covers Glenisla, Mooralla, Rocklands, and Woohlpooer, all located in Victoria’s south-west. The fire is one of several currently burning across the state, and it is one of five active fires within the national park.”
“British Airways plane hit by lightning strike in Brazil…
“One of the passengers captured the video of the strike as he was preparing to take the flight to Heathrow from Sao Paulo.”
https://news.sky.com/video/british-airways-plane-hit-by-lightning-strike-in-brazil-13296323
“Brazil introduces lightning monitoring system to prepare for climate change…
“By integrating lightning data with radar and satellite imagery, the chentre’s teams can predict rainfall behaviour, determining whether incoming precipitation will be moderate or heavy. This integration also aids in identifying potential hailstorm formations.
“ENDLESS RECORD HEAT IN ECUADOR.
“Two years of unstoppable record heat in the Eastern Pacific. Today the port of Guayaquil tied the record of its January hottest night with a minimum of 26.3C [79.3F]. This trend is exactly the opposite of what happens during a Nina.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1884260262049636370
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN THE CARIBBEANS – 100% of all tropics keep destroying every record like never before.
“Hottest January night in history for Puerto Lempira in HONDURAS with a Tmin 26.2C. Tmins up to 26.9 [79.2F] in BELIZE, 25.3 in the Airport.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1884576182047305887
“At least three wildfires ignited on Wednesday near North Carolina towns that were devastated by Hurricane Helene.
“The largest of the fires was estimated to have consumed 200 acres near the town of Marion and forced evacuations.”
https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/north-carolina-wildfire-hurricane-helene
“Climate change made the deadly Los Angeles wildfires more likely. And, the worst is yet to come…
“The blazes were worsened by dried-out vegetation, low rainfall in the region and the overlap between drought conditions and hurricane-force Santa Ana winds, according to the group World Weather Attribution.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/la-fires-climate-change-future-b2687738.html
“Between October 2022 and April 2024, Pasadena, CA observed it’s wettest 18-month period in 118 years of record keeping.
“Just 10 days later, it began it’s driest 9-month period ever recorded! Climate whiplash was a critical ingredient to the destruction of Altadena.” [Edgar McGregor]
https://x.com/edgarrmcgregor/status/1884794099972411751
“California bill would let insurers sue oil companies to avoid raising rates.
“California lawmakers introduced a first-in-the-nation bill Monday to create a clear legal pathway for individuals and insurance companies to sue oil companies for damages after fires like the ones that destroyed whole neighborhoods in Los Angeles this month.”
“Victims of deadly Hawaii wildfire agree deal over how to split $4bn payout…
“The unusual trial had been expected to delve into difficult questions about survivors’ losses. Some victims were ready to take the witness stand, while others submitted pre-recorded testimony…”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/29/hawaii-wildfires-settlement
“Portland’s dry January could tie record streak for no measurable rain [Oregon]…
“January is typically a dark and rainy time of year in Portland, where some days the thick clouds make it feel as though the sun barely rises. But this year has been different…”
“Ice fishing season melting away with record warm temperatures [Iowa]…
“DNR spokesman Mick Klemesrud says continued days of above freezing temperatures make more and more ice disappear. “Southern Iowa is going to be, the ice fishing season is probably going to be over by this weekend… And in places like central Iowa, Big Creek Lake had an open pocket on it that didn’t freeze all winter…”
https://www.radioiowa.com/2025/01/29/ice-fishing-season-melting-away-with-record-warm-temperatures/
“More Than Half of the Largest Bodies of Water in the World Are Drying Up…
“Lakes and other water bodies are affected in many other ways by climate change. Researchers such as Yao also note that in colder climates, some lakes face fewer ice-covered days which can further enhance water loss.”
“Deepening water scarcity in breadbasket nations…
“…rising water demands are disproportionately being met by water resources in already stressed regions…we estimate that unsustainable blue water demand has risen by 101% in China, 82% in India, and 49% in the US.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56022-6
For interest: “Astronomers discover 196-foot asteroid with 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032…
“”Odds have slightly increased to 1 in 83,” Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter David Rankin wrote on BlueSky. “This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever.”
https://www.space.com/180-foot-asteroid-1-in-83-chance-hitting-Earth-2032
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
According to that Nature article (a great find) almost all India’s water use for wheat and about 70% for rice was unsustainable in 2015. I can’t imagine it’s got better since. The worst area is the north west and close to where the social problems are also the worst in Kashmir. That seems unlikely to end well especially as India seems be heading for a fascist theocracy.
The same also for the breadbasket of the American West too, I’m afraid.
Crop irrigation accounts for 85% of all water use in Kansas — even more in western Kansas.
https://kansasreflector.com/2024/06/13/time-for-a-reckoning-kansas-farmers-brace-for-water-cuts-to-save-ogallala-aquifer/share
The group also discussed the possibility of paying growers to shut down their wells.
But one farmer said he can’t farm his sandy soil without irrigation. After the meeting, he declined to be named, saying he could get in big trouble for sharing his real feelings.
Local farmer Steve Sterling interjected at the first meeting in Garden City to say conservation planning “should have been done 40 years ago.” Some of his neighbors abandoned their farm when he was 12, he said. They were out of water.
Katie Durham, who manages Groundwater Management District 1 in western Kansas, drove south to attend some of the meetings in GMD 3. She said she hoped the farmers in attendance understood that change is coming under the new law.
“This is happening,” Durham said. “I just hope that urgency and sense of wanting to be involved and kind of taking ownership of the future on a local level — I just hope people are understanding that.”
McGuire, V.L., and Strauch, K.R., 2022. Data from U.S. Geological Survey.
‘This is a cultural thing’
Between the 1950s and the 1970s, Kansas created the fundamental problem that allows aquifer depletion by granting farmers the right to pump more water out of the aquifer each year than returns to it via rainfall. But the state has largely left it up to locals to find solutions to the problem.
Seems folks are inclined to kick the can down the road some…imagine that!
I’m not clear how easy it would be to access or transport the water from it, but an absolutely colossal aquifer was recently discovered beneath The Cascade Mountains in Oregon – three times as large as Lake Mead, apparently. An interesting, hydrological plot-twist perhaps.
If anyone is wanting more precise info re global temps for Jan than in ExtremeTemps’ X post linked to in the thread, Leon Simons is reporting that, “The first 28 days of 2025 were 1.75°C above pre-industrial!”
In other words, 0.05C hotter than Jan 2024, even though that was under El Nino conditions and we now (sort of) have La Nina.
If that’s the actual trend no wonder all appearances of addressing the climate crisis are being abandoned. It’s plainly obvious that climate sensitivity/positive feedbacks have been underestimated and now the evidence of data is stark. So, the new Administration will defund the agencies that are responsible for the “bad news”, so to speak. Not the first time in humanity that cognitive dissonance has prevailed, if that’s the term one wishes to use for this behavior.
Humans, very clever but illogical, along with stupidity and foolishness…what a combination!
TR couldn’t have worded any better…but he’ll try
I’m not going to try. A man needs to know his limitations. 😉
Fascist theocracy…. Isn’t that redundant? Monotheism and Totalitarianism are Twin Towers.
The One True God to rule them all,
The One God to blind them,
One God to bring them all,
And in the darkness, bind them:
In the Holy Land, where even the shadows lie.
https://robertlowrey.blogspot.com/2024/12/war-on-christmas.html
Rob, that needs a re-post at Christmas, so that we can all have a festive sing-a-long. 🎄
Hindu is not monotheistic by most interpretations.
Hello Pan…
Just a few thoughts on chaos and disorder. If you follow all that you can’t help but come to a cynical but also realistic conclusion: “disorder and chaos” are not necessarily a problem for everyone. They are increasingly they are a business model. In a sense, this is the paradox of the modern world. The traditional idea of progress was always based on stability and predictability, but nowadays instability can be at least as lucrative. Hedge funds that speculate on natural disasters, companies that profit from waves of migration, the arms industry that thrives on geopolitical tensions – all systems that thrive not in spite of chaos, but because of it.
This also explains why you increasingly see structural problems like climate change, water scarcity and social unrest not being named eesn anymore. The narrative is shifting rapidly There is no universal interest in stability. Some power blocks, investors and corporations benefit far more from a world in which fires are constantly raging somewhere – both literally and figuratively.
Chaos is not a defect in the system. It has become a feature. In a world where energy crises, climate change and migration flows have become structural and persistent, chaos may be becoming the new norm. It is no longer an exception or a temporary crisis, but a permanent state that we are moving into.
When chaos becomes a “feature,” it also means that the criteria for success change. Instead of valuing stability and predictability, flexibility, opportunism and adaptability may become the most important features. You can already see this in certain business models and political strategies, where constant change and uncertainty are exploited rather than fought against.
You can also see this in the rise of populist movements and authoritarian leaders, who thrive in chaotic conditions by promising simple solutions to complex problems. Instead of fighting chaos, they often reinforce it precisely to strengthen their own position.
This also affects how individuals see their place in the world. When chaos becomes the norm, the need for long-term planning disappears and the focus shifts to immediate survival and opportunity.
Perhaps the biggest change is philosophical in nature. If chaos becomes a feature, what does that mean for our ideas of progress, responsibility and morality?
It could mean adapting to a world where stability is no longer the ultimate goal, but where we learn to surf the waves of constant change – no matter how destructive.
The Man from Uncle Sam: Caos.
As VPK noted above, it takes a while to reap the whirlwind:
Selling the country out to corporate interests was at the heart of the GW Bush regime: sowing caos in Afghanistan with $45 million to the Taliban, then Iraq, the first War of the Theocracy, wherein an American President claimed the Deity told him to use terror ( while fighting a War on Terror with “Shock & Awe” … ie, Terror). Heeding voices in your head and claiming they come from God is the hallmark of lunacy, yet Afghanistan was still “enduring freedom” two decades later.
Yet the ongoing paradigm of making Amerika Grate Again, by making it Energy Independent via “renewable” fuel of ethanol via the non-renewable use of Oglala Aquifer water, Nat gas, coal and oil is ongoing today, with half of all corn grown in Kansas processed into fuel to slake the ever growing thirst of America’s fleet of 3-ton SUV’s (during the last 20 years, as the idiotically-monikered Renewable Fuel poured into gas tanks, those tanks’ weight, and the tanks they powered, increased along with it).
What possibility is there of “taking ownership of the future on a local level” when the federal gov’t is funneling billions of dollars into private companies’ and State coffers to undermine any potential for change? US corporations are empowered to do to their own country what they do to the world: drain its resources and then move on.
Now the same paradigm is shifting to the production of SAF: Sustainable Aviation Fuel: or Starve Americans First.
This deception is by design: both of these examples are what used to simply be called alternate fuels, but the dependence of their production on fossil fuels and other non-sustainable inputs is deliberately obfuscated by using deceptive labels. Works every time.
To further buttress zip’s argument, consider the Pandemic: the Warp speed the increase in their profits and power during the Presidency of an anti-vax agent of caos were unprecedented.
People don’t rake in profits from catastrophe, Corporations do. Our insistence on thinking that Capitalism will solve the climate crisis is just silly. It’s the equivalent of the MAGAts belief that it’s God’s will.
Zip, you make some excellent points. Predatory opportunists of many types are benefitting from instability now and, in effect, fanning the flames of chaos.
Creeping chaos is exactly what we would expect to see in a complex system starting to lose its battle against entropy. The only question being – how much of it can the global economic superorganism tolerate before dysfunction becomes defunction?
All these charts, all these maps, all these graphs… Temperature records being broken at faster and faster paces. They’re so damning yet they get so little attention.
I swear, when I’m talking with people there’s times I feel like Patrick Star in that episode where Spongebob had bad breath. Only instead of holding up an “ugly” sponge. I’m holding up the graphs.
“HERE! IT’S UGLY ISN’T IT!? LOOK AT IT! LOOK AT IT! LOOK AT IT! I WANT ALL OF YOU TO LOOK AT IT!” …And then everyone runs away.
King Kord, I think most of us go through a “Patrick Star” phase. The natural thing to do when you realise the gravity and urgency of the situation is to want to communicate it.
He was singing about romance, but I often think of George Michael’s lyrics these days: “”People. You can never change the way they feel… Better let them do just what they will.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omsBhh8vA7c
Soon to be reported in every locale & I didn’t make it halfway thru the links.
“…global warming continues unabated.”
” ….unprecedented ocean temperatures.”
“… warming is accelerating….”
“, i.e. 1.66C over pre-industrial, per Copernicus]”
“…broke decades-old records.”
“… broke records in nearly every station…”
Prof. Eliot Jacobson post – Decadel Global Sea Surface Warming chart –
The low point on the trendline should have a caption; “We should lower this point, now.” The high point in 2025 caption. – “Too late you fucked yourselves into the consequences.”
Up, up and away we all go…now to hear it on the television as a good thing,
Got to put a positive spin on it all for Joe and Karen Six PACK..
Let’s see now…soon there will be year-round ocean swimming …that should calm them down some…
See TR, it all depends on how one sees things…life is much more enjoyable when your outlook is positive…yes positive thinking..repeat…
John Trump is Commander-in-Chief. Brian Hegseth is Secretary of Defense. A military helicopter crashed into a commercial flight from Kansas. WTF? 67 killed in the city of the headquarters of the U.S. military. John Trump didn’t name a FAA director until after the crash.
Everyone that doesn’t like the truth, join me & let’s kick the truth’s ass until it goes away. U.S.A.!, U.S.A.! U.S.A.!