Huge thanks to Gerry for being this month’s sponsor. He has asked me to post the following: Still alive in ’25 – we’re all in this together! Find supportive community and resources at postdoom.com (founded by Michael Dowd; RIP)
“Earth shattered heat records in 2023 and 2024: is global warming speeding up?
“…Scientists projected that early 2024 would be hot owing to the El Niño. But they also anticipated that temperatures would fall after the weather pattern subsided and conditions in the equatorial Pacific returned to normal last June. “That didn’t happen,” says Zeke Hausfather…”
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-04242-z
“Climate Models Can’t Explain What’s Happening to Earth.
“Global warming is moving faster than the best models can keep a handle on… Extreme events are taking scientists by surprise. Right now, as the bald reality of climate change bears down on human life, scientists are seeing more clearly the limits of our ability to predict the exact future we face.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2025/01/climate-models-earth/681207/
“Breaking News! Code UFB!!! For those hoping to see CO2 growth slow down, I’ve got very bad news.
“The annualized rate of CO2 growth just hit an all-time high of 3.50 ppm as of December, 2024. The previous record fastest annualized CO2 growth was 3.49 ppm in January, 2017.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1876365022701773009
“Breaking News! Code Yikes! The monthly methane number just came out from NOAA for September, 2024, at 1936.64ppb.
“The bad news is that the annualized rate of methane growth is once again increasing.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson] …“As far as we can tell, global methane concentrations haven’t been this high in over 50 MILLION years!!” [Leon Simons]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lf3xbptdw223
“The changing nature of future Arctic marine heatwaves and its potential impacts on the ecosystem…
“…we find Arctic MHWs intensify on orders of magnitude during the warming twenty-first century, following sea ice retreat. However, with little sea ice coverage, strong interannual variability emerges, which could surpass the amplitude of former intensification.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02224-7
“Permafrost thaw beneath Arctic lakes poses surprise pollution threat.
“Deep sediments under Arctic lakes could release large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane, adding to the threat of runaway climate change… most modelling only accounts for thawing in the top 3 metres of Arctic soil.”
“AMOC: UK could face more severe weather from slowing Atlantic currents…
“The AMOC moves 17 million cubic metres of warm water every second, north along the ocean surface, returning cold water through the ocean depths. This distributes 1.2 petawatts of heat, the equivalent to the energy flowing through one million power stations.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93gxgevrdwo
“UK weather latest: ‘Danger to life’ flood warning as 500 alerts in place; two airports stop all flights.
“More than 500 flood alerts are in place across the UK, with one severe flood warning requiring “large-scale” evacuation. Snow and ice warnings have also been issued for millions. Travellers face further disruption – with two airports suspending flights.”
“France sees temperatures as low as -33C [-27.4F]…
“Temperatures of -33.9C were measured in Jura on Saturday as France recorded some of its coldest temperatures ever. The cold spell led authorities in Paris to cut speed limits by 20km/h under level two of its ‘cold and ice plan’.”
https://www.connexionfrance.com/news/france-sees-temperatures-as-low-as-33c/697899
“Cava crisis: Spanish fizz must adapt amid torrid droughts…
“According to DO Cava, the yields for Catalonia have dropped from 300 million kilos in 2021 to 230 million in 2023, with 2024 expected to be even lower. That’s a loss equivalent to around five times the total production of English wine.”
“Almería faces critical water shortage as drought deepens.
“A large part of the province is in a state of emergency due to the ongoing drought, and it’s impacting both residents and farmers. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the water situation has reached critical levels, with some towns now facing a daily limit of 200 litres of water per person.”
https://euroweeklynews.com/2025/01/06/almeria-faces-critical-water-shortage-as-drought-deepens/
“The Mediterranean will be faced with extreme warming and climate change THIS decade. [Leon Simons is particularly talking about the new shipping pollution legislation that will mean less cooling sulphur particles, as of May 1st].
“IPCC provides a false sense of security. No one seems to give a sh*t. Gross negligence!”
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1876306258300735496
“Record heat is falling all over the tropics, like never before: 2024 Nino records are being destroyed in pieces with record margins.
“Central Africa is also with scorching MINIMUMS up to 28C and more records broken: MIN 26.5 [79.7F] Tabligbo TOGO is hottest January night on record.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1876243056766398664
“Flash floods leave Windhoek’s informal settlement residents stranded, urgent aid needed [Namibia]…
“Greenwell Matongo community activist Ranciah !Gaes says she has been getting calls from desperate residents pleading for help with blankets and clothes.”
“HISTORIC HEAT IN SOUTH AFRICA:
“INSANE Records broken by 6C+ margins,near the highest in world climatic history – TMIN 25.1 Elliot 1500m asl: First Jan Min >20C and >25C at the same time! 44.2 [111.6F] Mandeni KWAZULU NATAL HOTTEST DAY EVER.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1875581422960046484
“Drought and farming: how women in South Africa are using Indigenous knowledge to cope…
“The women small-scale farmers we interviewed reflected on the droughts: “The smell of decaying livestock tainted the atmosphere. Moreover, salt began to crystallise in the river. We used this salt both for cooking and sold some it.””
“HISTORIC WINTER HEAT IN SAUDI ARABIA – insanely hot night (before a thunderstorm ) in Jeddah with a minimum of 26.6C [79.9F]; HOTTEST JANUARY NIGHT IN SAUDI HISTORY. First Min >26C in the country in January.
“Jeddah has been with record heat for years, without any colder than average months.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1876294601574957399
“Saudi Arabia’s holy city of Mecca flooded after being hit by extreme rain.
“Saudi Arabia’s Mecca, the holiest city according to Islam, has been hit by extreme weather. Footage circulating on social media shows entire neighbourhoods partially submerged amid the heavy rainfall.”
“Why water scarcity is key factor in Syria’s protracted conflict…
“Since 2011, water scarcity has been a central factor in the country’s prolonged conflict, manipulated for political and economic gain. In a region already vulnerable to climate change, prolonged drought and water shortages have worsened the plight of a country devastated by 13 years of war.”
https://www.theweek.in/wire-updates/international/2025/01/06/tga2-syria-water-scarcity.html
“There has been almost no precipitation in southern China since December, and severe drought has occurred in many places.
“A forest fire broke out in Guigang, Guangxi on the evening of January 5, but fortunately it was extinguished in time.”
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/1876234859095679144
“2024 in Georgetown, Malaysia. An insanity:
“2nd Hottest January; Hottest February; Hottest March; Hottest April; Hottest May; 2nd Hottest June; Hottest July; 2nd Hottest August; Hottest September; 2nd Hottest October; Hottest November; Hottest December.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1876124815461175379
“SE ASIA ENDLESS RECORD HEAT:
“Thailand and Indonesia have been breaking thousands of records every single day for over 600 days and continue to do so. Insane winter MINIMUM of 27.6C [81.7F] at Laem Chabang THAILAND on the Gulf, January record destroyed.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1875799394781688081
“Past climate shifts altered Southern Ocean currents and carbon exchange: Study warns it may be happening again…
“Human-induced climate change is causing shifts in the world’s largest ocean current and westerly wind systems also seen during periods of ice age and warmer intervals in Earth’s history, researchers claim.”
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-climate-shifts-southern-ocean-currents.html
““Doomsday” Glacier’s Alarming Meltdown Sparks Radical Geoengineering Race…
“Some of the ideas for protecting the Thwaites and other marine-terminating glaciers like it are considered radical, including creating giant submarine curtains that would at least partially prevent warm tidal currents from reaching the glacier ice.”
https://scitechdaily.com/doomsday-glaciers-alarming-meltdown-sparks-radical-geoengineering-race/
“Amazon’s Global Warming Counterweight Threatened…
“For the first time in recorded history extreme drought has become a regular feature of the rainforest, like clockwork every couple of years. This is not normal… In some regions of the forest, the Amazon emits more carbon than it stores…”
https://www.counterpunch.org/2025/01/03/amazons-global-warming-counterweight-threatened/
“Endless record heat in Brazil. Today 39.8 [103.6F] at Barra, Bahia State, broke its January record of highest temperature.
“More record heat next days… Nothing alike any Nina at all.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1875726985575698927
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN THE CARIBBEAN – 2024 records are being smashed in pieces all over the tropics (the opposite of what we would expect with La Nina).
“GREANADA had an absurdly hot night with a Minimum of 27.0C [80.6F], the highest ever recorded in January for all the Caribbean.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1876426021408555483
“HISTORIC WARMTH IN TEXAS – dozens of records of January hottest nights. Overnight MINIMUMS (up to 75F / 23.9F).
“Note: some of those minimums might drop below by midnight, so we must wait before calling the highest minimums records. Extraordinary anyway…”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1875921144349622286
“Southern California is about to be blasted by one of its most powerful Santa Ana windstorm in recorded history.
“It may not be #1, but the combination of high population, drought conditions, abundant fuel, and mountain wave strength may create world-record high fire danger.”
https://x.com/edgarrmcgregor/status/1876393368957452714
“Climate change is hampering US apple quality and output: Study…
“While apple orchards nationwide have become increasingly vulnerable to warming trends, the three U.S. counties with the biggest output are among the most affected, according to the study, published on Monday in Environmental Research Letters.”
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5069348-climate-change-impact-apple-growth-study/
“Cape Breton coastal communities concerned as climate change eliminating sea ice in Gulf of St Lawrence [Canada].
“Ice has been steadily disappearing from the Gulf of St. Lawrence — record low levels were recorded last winter — and federal officials say it could be gone altogether within 20 years.”
“Unlike just about every other year in the satellite-era record of sea ice by early January, the Hudson Bay (Canada) still hasn’t frozen over… Not good.
“Data from nsidc.org/data/seaice_…”
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3lf4ja3rekk2m
“Another new record daily low for Arctic sea-ice extent yesterday. Extent is now over 300,000 square kilometers below the previous record low.
“That’s five-for-five in ’25!”
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1876252762218070372
“Even with La Niña conditions, 2024 ended with record high Northern Hemisphere temperatures.
“And Global Sea Surface Temperatures are starting off with a bang in 2025.”
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1876295104052465789
“Yes, it’s true. A new record daily high global surface temperature was recorded in the latest data available from Copernicus for January 4th.
“Here’s a close up look:”
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1876255449777111389
“Climate crisis ‘wreaking havoc’ on Earth’s water cycle, report finds…
“Warmer air can hold more water vapour, leading to more intense downpours. Warmer seas provide more energy to hurricanes and typhoons, supercharging their destructive power. Global heating can also increase drought by causing more evaporation from soil, as well as shifting rainfall patterns.”
“Extreme weather events such as floods and heat waves, along with their impact on agriculture, are emerging as major threats to global food supply chains as climate change accelerates.
“This increases the risk of social unrest if climate breakdown disrupts key agricultural regions, potentially paving the way for total societal collapse.”
https://theecologist.org/2025/jan/06/just-top-soil
“Finance no panacea for world’s climate woes… nature cannot simply be replaced by throwing money at it…
“Since the Paris Agreement of 2015, financial instruments… have increasingly focused on risk management rather than mitigation, or even slowing the pace of carbon emissions. This represents a global commitment to maintaining the status quo…”
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/finance-no-panacea-for-worlds-climate-woes
“Repression of climate and environmental protest is intensifying across the world…
“We recently published a report, with three University of Bristol colleagues, which shows this repression is indeed a global trend – and that it is becoming more difficult around the world to stand up for climate justice.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
Why do we call CO2 Carbon Dioxide and not Carbon Bioxide? We do after all say bicycle and biennual and bilatteral.
Curt, because it sounds more scientific, and every profession is a conspiracy against the laity, as George Bernard Shaw once said.
“The English prefixes bi-, derived from Latin, and its Greek variant di- both mean “two.” The Latin prefix is far more prevalent in common words, such as bilingual, biceps, and biped; the more technical Greek di- appears in such words as diphthong and dilemma.”
https://membean.com/rootcasts/bi-twice
Fascinating I had no idea that di was Greek.
They don’t make them La Ninas like they used to – unreliable and underpowered these days.
It’s difficult to predict anything with things changing so fast but some questions for this year:
Will a major hurricane hitting a US city exceed 250 billion economic losses or 150 billion insured damages? (The Atlantic MDR is about as hot as the 2024 record, the Gulf of Mexico is third, I think the Caribbean is setting records.)
Will combined US extreme weather losses for 24 and 25 exceed a trillion?
Will CO2 rise again exceed 3.5ppm showing how fast the sinks are failing?
Will average 2m temperature increase exceed 0.1 degrees (or 0.15, 0.2) or will La Nina start having an effect away from the equatorial Pacific?
Will there be a major staple crop failure?
Will food shortages lead to major unrest and regime changes (e.g. in Magreb, Middle East, NW or central South America, Sahel)?
Will the Arctic or Antarctic go ice free, or set new all time lows?
Will the Med turn into a Bain Marie given recent acceleration (https://www.ceam.es/ceamet/SST/index.html)?
What proportions of coral will bleach and die. I haven’t seen numbers but corals are significant CO2 sinks so a positive feedback towards accelerating warming, also a tipping point – once gone they won’t come back.
George, good questions all. For the uninitiated, like me, this is what a Bain-Marie is:
“A bain-marie, also known as a water bath or double boiler, a type of heated bath, is a piece of equipment used in science, industry, and cooking to heat materials gently or to keep materials warm over a period of time. A bain-marie is also used to melt ingredients for cooking.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bain-marie
The last paragraph of the Nature article makes no sense to me – the pollution isn’t going to come back so how will the temperature forcing not just continue?
George, I don’t think that is the final paragraph, as the article peters out enigmatically into a paywall. However, I share your confusion.
Excellent round-up!
Thank you, Doom Wizard.
Scrolling through your daily is like the sweet sound of nails pounding into the coffin of this foolish and forlorn civilisation, an unfortunate experiment in energy dissipation.
Well said, Shane! I gotta wonder why us regular readers subject ourselves to this day after day. I guess for myself it’s the one train wreck I can’t look away from. Biggest (and final) drama in human history.
I’m afraid the writing couldn’t be much more on the wall, Shane.
We simped for brat girl summer when we should have fangasmed for good girl autumn amirite hee hee.
For those of us who are retired that is greek.
Curt, I am a long way from retired and it is Greek to me, too. My twelve-year-old does use the word “simping”, though, to describe someone who is fawning over a romantic crush.
Kamala Harris is retirement age or pushing it, though she looks not half bad for it. Brat girl summer was the totality of her election campaign and I for one thought it was quite poetic and apt. Last year was indeed very summery, very Dionysian. The sun burning so hot the world glows livid black.
“Since the Paris Agreement of 2015, financial instruments… have increasingly focused on risk management rather than mitigation, or even slowing the pace of carbon emissions. This represents a global commitment to maintaining the status quo…”
Put another way, commodifying climate change doesn’t actually solve climate change.
Climate change is fundamentally a biophysical problem that cannot be solved on the more superficial, conceptual levels of politics, law or finance.
First time commenter but long time follower. Despite the horrific implications of the many climate and economic (they are inter-related BTW) data points you share I believe said data points are critical to our understanding of The Great Simplification as it begins to pick up momentum.
Welcome to the site, Farmer CFO. I do my best to keep my finger on the pulse, as it were.
Welcome to the peanut gallery, “a nickname for the cheapest and ostensibly rowdiest seats in the theater.” 😉
I will be releasing my stand-up schedule for 2025, shortly.
https://abc7.com/post/brush-fire-erupts-pacific-palisades-threatens-structures-amid-powerful-windstorm/15772178/
Insane fire in California .what a way to start off the new year!
And even celebrities have been finding it hard to get house insurance, apparently:
“[Actor, James Woods] declared that he and many of his neighbors no longer have insurance after a ‘major company’ supposedly canceled many of the policies four months ago.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14262029/hollywood-actor-palisades-fire-house-burnt-devastation-insurance-policy.html
I can’t wait for how much worse the next Climate report will be.
Roaming YouTube I ran across something a woman said in reference to Trump voters & FAFO. Bet she doesn’t know how applicable her statement is to the consequences of global warming.
“Consequences are the greatest spiritual teacher in the universe. Nothing on earth teaches like pain.” You go girl!
The sad part is that she probably doesn’t realize or ever questioned what her CO2 footprint is? I’ll never know if she is a breeder.
First time poster. I’ve been lurking for a while reading and absorbing. I’m definitely in the postdoom-no gloom (tips hat to the late Rev Michael Dowd) camp.
Whilst reading about the wildfires in Pacific Palisades, is anyone else secretely hoping that similar occurs soon at Mar-El-Lago?
(o.k just me then).
I suspect a number of people are wondering if there are any rich/ CEOs/Trump supporters in the line of fire.
I think having Biden able to sign over federal relief is very good.
Did I hear Trump refused to send aid to a disaster area that had voted Democrat?
Kevin, welcome to the site. You won’t be alone in that hope, I’m sure, although I do my best to not to get too embroiled in politics.
Mad Hatter, your memory serves you well: “Could Trump really cut off wildfire aid for California? Absolutely… Trump has said he’ll withhold disaster funding if state officials don’t back his policies… The threats appear to be founded. Presidents have an extraordinary amount of discretion when it comes to disaster aid…”
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-10-31/can-trump-really-cut-off-california-wildfire-aid
Thanks Pan.
It’s going to be a hard 4 years for most Americans. Climate crisis AND Musk make everything even worse