Huge thanks to this month’s sponsor, Kimberley Hare, Facilitator of ‘The Edge’ Retreat, and Author of “At the Edge: What is Mine to Do, and Who Can I do it With?” She was kind enough to interview me for this book.
“We’re ending 2024 with record high North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (now on day six)… A possible slogan for 2025: “Charting the unchartable…” [Prof Eliot Jacobson; graph is his.]
“I’m sorry, but I don’t see the North Atlantic Ocean cooling back down again… And this is where much of the weather of Europe and North America is made.” [Leon Simons]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3le7ujrcnvk26
“2024 was record-breaking year for Northern Ireland weather patterns – with more extreme conditions expected in New Year…
“Dr Donal Mullan, a senior lecturer in the School of Natural and Built Environment at Queen’s University Belfast, said that experiencing the warmest May since records began is “the most notable example” of dramatic changes in our weather patterns compared to long-term averages.”
“EXCEPTIONAL WARMTH IN SCOTLAND AND NORWAY – minimums of +10/+12 and maxes up to +16C [60.8F] : An insanely warm Christmas.
“Hottest December temperature in history in some Scottish stations including 14.3 Wick, 13.6 Kirkall, 13.1 Fair Isle. Data is >100 years: truly historic.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1871934319427784828
“Flight delays are expected as the UK sees more heavy fog over the weekend following airport disruption yesterday.
“”Temporary air traffic restrictions have been put in place due to fog causing poor visibility. Some flights may be delayed throughout the day,” a spokesperson for Gatwick Airport said.”
“Species in the United Kingdom are under threat as they are “tricked” by our seasons shifting with the changing climate.
“On average, key events that herald the start of spring are happening nine days earlier, external than a quarter of a century ago.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cly24dxeer1o
“It’s official: Paris never rained as much as in 2024.
“The year 2024 will go down in the annals of Paris weather records as the wettest on record since measurements began in 1873. With a provisional total rainfall of 900.9 millimeters, the French capital surpassed the previous record set in 2000…”
https://parissecret.com/en/record-rainfall-2024/
“A year of extremes – from drought to floods and record temperatures [Costa del Sol, Spain]…
“The floods in October and November and the first ever use of the mobile phone alarm system in the case of red weather warnings, stand out… It wasn’t just the air temperature that was breaking records, the sea off the coast of Malaga recorded Caribbean-like temperatures this summer.”
“I’ve asked every climate scientist who should know if they are aware of research on the climate effects of the additional 80% desulphurisation over the Mediterranean next May.
“They were all completely oblivious about the IMOHQ regulation.” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1872722257690374221
“Antalya [Turkey] struggles with flood disaster…
“After heavy rainfall, roads turned into lakes and agricultural lands were flooded… The situation was even worse in the Manavgat district. In many neighborhoods, streets and avenues were filled with water, and some vehicles were stranded.”
https://oxu.az/tr/gundem/antalya-da-siddetli-yagis-hayati-felc-etti
“Heavy rains cause road closures and flooding in Fuerteventura [Canary Islands]…
“Fuerteventura has been severely affected by heavy rainfall, with extensive damage reported across the island’s road infrastructure, particularly in the centre of the island.”
https://www.canarianweekly.com/posts/Heavy-rains-cause-road-closures-and-flooding-in-Fuerteventura
“Drought Cuts Morocco’s Wheat Production by Half as Water Crisis Deepens…
“Morocco faces a severe agricultural crisis as local authorities predict the 2024 wheat harvest will decline by approximately 50%, marking another blow to the country’s cereal production amid a prolonged seven-year drought.”
“Record again at Koforidua (known as Kof-City) GHANA!
“37.6C [99.7F] today is a new December record, after recording 37.5C four times earlier this month and after breaking multiple times the November record. Record heat also continues in Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Cameroon and will intensify.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1872716815492890701
“HISTORIC HEAT IN SOUTH AFRICA – monthly and all time max. records up to 45C [113F]…
“…but above all on the highlands insanely hot nights and highest minimum records broken by up to 5/6C+ margins, near the world records of hugest margins of broken records.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1872621760920911981
“Fire and rescue services across the Garden Route [South Africa] are battling 10 active wildfires that have been raging along the coastal region.
“Garden Route District Municipality (GRDM) mayor Andrew Stroebel said while a joint operations centre has not yet been activated, it remains on the cards.”
“Mayotte faces environmental and biodiversity crisis after cyclone…
““It’s an environmental disaster,” said biologist Raima Fadul. “There are no more trees. Those still standing have lost their tops… The cyclone flattened the vegetation.””
https://www.thelocal.com/20241227/mayotte-faces-environmental-and-biodiversity-crisis-after-cyclone
“28,000 displaced as floods and cholera hit White Nile state [Sudan].
“The flooding has led to a surge in cholera cases in El Gezira Aba. Local health authorities report 166 confirmed cases, including four deaths, as of yesterday. El Gezira Aba Hospital is struggling to cope…”
https://sudantribune.com/article295138/
“730,000 Syrian refugees face flooding in Northern camps: UN.
“According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), heavy rains and strong winds since the beginning of 2024 have caused damage to 8,800 tents…”
https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/817209
“The Omani’s capital port of Mina Qaboos is close to achieve something incredible: The first no-tropical site (latitude 23:37N) to pass a full calendar year without ever dropping below 20C (100% of tropical nights).
“No place on earth in modern climatic history ever achieved that.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1871597600572674138
“Wildfires ravage Abbottabad’s forests [Pakistan]…
“Forest fires in the upper regions of Abbottabad, including Galyat, Nathiagali, Thandiani, Ayubia, and Khanpur, have become an escalating issue, drawing increasing concern from residents and environmental experts alike.”
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518649/wildfires-ravage-abbottabads-forests
“A new study has identified 67 “potentially dangerous” alpine lakes in …Jammu and Kashmir [India], with 11 of them classified as “high-risk” due to the threat of catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF).
“The first-of-its-kind research… has warned these floods could impact hundreds of thousands of people living downstream.”
https://kmsnews.org/kms/2024/12/28/study-warns-of-devastating-floods-from-alpine-lakes-in-iiojk.html
“301 cm [118.5 inches]! That’s the snow depth observed at Sukayu Onsen [890 m], in Japan! That breaks the monthly record of 297 cm set in 2012 [since 1979]…
“Let’s see if Sukayu can break the Dec. national record (324 cm in Tsunan in 2005).”
https://x.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1871280084113674550
“South Australian farmers count their losses after worst season in decades.
“Frost, drought and late rain have been the hallmarks of one of the most challenging seasons for South Australian farmers in recent memory… Farmers are hopeful the next season brings with it improved rainfall.”
“At this Christmas time, the surface melt extent over the Antarctica ice sheet (~ 14% of area) and production of melt (~ 12GT/day) is 4 times larger than the normal, allowing even significant meltwater runoff in some area according to the MAR model…
“MAR suggests an absolute record of surface melt that however needs to be confirmed by satellite data derived melt extent. About 90% of the produced meltwater is currently absorbed by the snow.”
https://x.com/xavierfettweis/status/1871478432196112772
“Flash floods wreak havoc as heavy rain batters Fiji…
“The weather office warns of further disruptions, including major flooding during high tides, road closures, risks of landslides, and displacement of communities near rivers and streams.”
https://www.theaustraliatoday.com.au/flash-floods-wreak-havoc-as-heavy-rain-batters-fiji/
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN PACIFIC OCEAN – insane spree of heat records all over Oceania.
“36C [96.8F] again on the Ecuador coast. TMins 28.6C in TUVALU and 28.3 COOK ISLANDS. Min 27 Max 35.9 Matuku FIJI. Min 25.6 NIUE Airport etc… all Oceania is with heat records.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1871740033616802238
“PATAGONIA HEAT WAVE – Christmas day (and today) were very hot in the Patagonia regions in Southern Argentina.
“In particular, on the 25th the town of San Julian broke its Decembe record of highest temperature with 37.0C [98.6F].”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1872449750773154181
“Forest fires and intense heat [up to 41.5c / 106.7F] cause concern in Chile…
“The National Forestry Corporation (CONAF) reported more than 70 fires in the first weeks of the warm season. According to the entity, the fires occurred while central and southern areas of Chile were experiencing a heat wave…”
https://www.plenglish.com/news/2024/12/26/forest-fires-and-intense-heat-cause-concern-in-chile/
“PUERTO RICO AGAIN! Amazing 3rd minimum temperature in a row of 79F/26.1C at the San Juan Marin Int. AP; a record for December.
“This is more typical of August :the heat is not going anywhere but stay and can even further increase short after Christmas.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1871210198905561342
“Floods and vehicles under water after heavy rain in Morelia, Michoacán.
“The Civil Protection Coordination in Michoacán reported that, in response to the contingency, brigades were deployed to provide care and assistance to the affected population.”
https://www.milenio.com/estados/intensa-lluvia-colapsa-vialidades-y-dana-vehiculos-morelia-michoacan
“RECORD HEAT IN MEXICO – 34.9 [94.8F] at La Paz Int. AP Baja California Sur State HOTTEST DECEMBER DAY ON RECORD.
“In Sinaloa State maxes locally >38C/100F. Southern USA, mainly Texas, will also be close to 90F every day until year end.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1871368885301387564
“Rare December Tornado in Texas Causes Havoc…
“El Campo, Texas, a quiet little town, was hit with something no one saw coming. It was a rare December tornado… Usually, this kind of storm happens in spring, but this twister didn’t care about the calendar.
https://etsn.fm/ixp/174/p/rare-december-tornado-texas-causes-havoc/
“As the US braces for one of its busiest travel weekends of the year, the threat of severe weather has already led to hundreds of flight cancellations.
“Tornado watches were issued in the southern states of Texas and Louisiana on Thursday, CNN reported.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/27/weather-new-years-flights-cancelled
“Several crew members on a flight to Phoenix were hospitalized after severe turbulence Thursday afternoon.
“The Alaska Airlines flight was en route from Seattle, Washington, around 2:30 p.m. when there was severe turbulence.”
“Des Moines and the climate reality: A year of extremes.
“As 2024 comes to a close, it’s clear something extraordinary—and unsettling—has been happening in Des Moines… Of the top ten warmest years in Des Moines, seven have occurred since 1951. Even more telling, six of those years have happened since 2010. That’s not just a trend—it’s a flashing red warning light.”
https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2024/12/27/des-moines-and-the-climate-reality-a-year-of-extremes/
“The bird at the center of the worst single-species mortality event in modern history isn’t recovering, scientists say [Alaska]…
“While further research is necessary to fully understand why murres are not bouncing back, Drummond’s team believes the changes are driven by shifts in the marine ecosystem, especially those associated with food supply.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/26/science/alaska-heat-wave-murres-global-warming/index.html
“…in case you were not keeping up, Arctic sea-ice extent is once again at a record low for the day as of Dec. 26th (JAXA data), dropping below the previous record holder for Dec. 26th from 2016.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lecd3ehxbk2w
“Race for Arctic resources in a climate change era…
“In November, a student-led project made a disturbing discovery: Mesyatsev Island, a floating slab of ice previously observed in the Arctic, had almost disappeared. It took around a decade and a half for the 11.8-million-square-foot island to shrink by 99.7% and vanish…”
https://asiatimes.com/2024/12/race-for-arctic-resources-in-a-climate-change-era/
“Big Oil backtracks on renewables push as climate agenda falters…
“The oil companies’ retrenchment is bad news for efforts to mitigate climate change. Global heat-trapping carbon emissions are forecast to climb to a new high in 2024, which will be the warmest year on record.”
“Multiple datasets will show that 2024 was about 1.6°C above the pre-industrial baseline!
“And >0.1°C above 2023. We’re in uncharted territory!”
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1871558519323087094
“Climate crisis exposed people to extra six weeks of dangerous heat in 2024…
“Those in Caribbean and Pacific island states were the hardest hit. Many endured about 150 more days of dangerous heat than they would have done without global heating, almost half the year.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/27/climate-crisis-dangerous-heat-2024
“‘We need dramatic social and technological changes’: is societal collapse inevitable?
“…“More and more academic articles are mentioning the threat of collapse because of climate change,” says Brozović at the school of business at the University of Skövde, Sweden… The field is not short of extreme pessimists. “They believe what we are doing will eventually cause the extinction of the human race,” says Brozović.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
Excellent round-up
Thank you, Doom Wizard. Your pen name always makes me think of Saruman from Lord of the Rings, btw. 😆
The Copernicus 2m temperature data (see Eliot Jacobson BlueSky) indicate that we are just about the same temperature now in a La Nina as this time last year in an El Nino. There is no reason to think the La Nina will suddenly provide more surface cooling. This aligns with observations that we have moved to a warming rate of about 0.1 to 0.2 degrees in the last two years. A confirmation might come in the next El Nino, maybe in early 2026, when we could regularly see daily temperatures with 2 degrees of average warming.
If this is due to a one-off albedo change then the warming would slowly decelerate as outgoing long-wave radiation increased with the temperature rise, but if the albedo continues dropping, especially if due to the proposed negative feedback between temperature and mid latitude clouds, then it will accelerate. We would then hit 3 degrees in less than ten years. I have always considered myself fairly pessimistic although events have often turned out slightly worse than I’ve expected, not just for climate but for all the Earth’s System Boundaries, especially biodiversity loss, but this would not be “slightly” worse, it would be, to quote Paul Weller, an “A-P-O-C-A-L-Y-P-S-E, apocalypse”.
Many observers have suggested 3 degrees would be incompatible with civilisation, in fact the threshold is probably lower given the speed of change and that the consequences of extreme weather have proved worse than expected. Heronymus Bosch’s hell would have nothing on what it would look like as a billion and more died annually, every country and region would be at war with every other and the entire population would become refugees, fleeing somewhere but not knowing where to go. Next year’s economic contraction and localised collapses will be a minor blip in comparison, and yet that is all politicians and most people are going to worry about, with climate relegated to the back pages and minor subcommittees. Happy New Year.
We don’t have an ice-free arctic (yet) as fearfully projected few years back. Hope (luck?) springs eternal.
Jupiviv, I think the shocking, record ice-loss of 2012 skewed expectations and made for some hasty predictions of “Blue Ocean Events”. The latest study is suggesting we could see one as soon as 2027.
Of course, the big wild card is the slowing AMOC, which could render the debate moot.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/12/04/an-ice-free-arctic-could-happen-by-summer-2027-what-it-means-for-weather-shipping-and-pola
2027? Pfft… get in line, “latest study”!
If 2012 or 2007 were to hit the ice now, thin as it is, then it would be gone for at least one summer. The irreversible loss of Barents Sea ice looks likely in the next few years, which may quickly lead to permanent ice free summers.
George, I vividly recall being startled by the very strong El Nino of 2016 briefly causing temps to spike to 1.6C in Feb of that year. The year as a whole was 1.2C over pre-industrial (ie 1850 – 1900).
Now, just eight years later and under the influence of a much weaker El Nino that in any case faded out in spring, we have had an entire year at 1.6C. We also saw temps spike to 2C in November 2023. The semantic obfuscations of Michael Mann and his ilk aside, warming is obviously accelerating.
I’m guessing (hoping) that the cooling we are seeing in the equatorial Pacific right now, which is meaningful at least relative to the warmth in the rest of the tropics, might mean temps dip down a little in 2025 – but who knows?
Happy New Year to you, too, and thank you for the excuse to play some Paul Weller.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tM1rSTOs7Zs
This period is marked as the end of a momentous year, prompting human minds to look at the large sweep of contemporary global events and processes and instruct followers on where to orient for signs of obligatory hope.
To follow that requirement, Pan-O has chosen to highlight some very promising “developments” that augur peace and stability for the 8 billion plus humans – wait, hang on, what have we here? That’s not AT ALL what Pan-O presented here, nor was it during the entirety of the year at award-winning C&E.
The Reuters short report from a reporter of the year type is particularly damning. George Kaplan’s comment is also concise and brilliant.
Humans have had our good things, and now increasing numbers of our species will pay the horrific price for the catastrophes produced by the chase, and then it will enter the cascade phase, and then it will come for us.
The Three Degrees sang “When Will I See You Again.” The Holocene was the subject in question, and the answer, as George delineates, is Never.
“Humans have had our good things, and now increasing numbers of our species will pay the horrific price for the catastrophes produced by the chase, and then it will enter the cascade phase, and then it will come for us.”
Martin, that is well and succinctly put.
I read articles about those poor Syrian refugees in flooded tents or the newly homeless of Mayotte and it still seems impossible that that level of misery could be visited on us Brits, but of course we are rapidly heading in that direction. The political dysfunction, dismal farming weather and remorseless erosion of purchasing power already augur ill.
Some of my earliest musical memories are of The Three Degrees, as my mother had their New Dimensions album on cassette in the car and used to play it a lot. This disco gem always rocked my world:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VInxDrXP9tY
Here is another article from Robert Hunziker.
Dismantling the ‘Climate Alarm Industry’ Per Project 2025
Robert Hunziker
https://www.counterpunch.org/2024/12/20/dismantling-the-climate-alarm-industry-per-project-2025/
“Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, is on the Trump administration’s chopping block. According to Project 2025: “The preponderance of climate-change research should be disbanded.”
That’s a very strong statement to make about a 50-year-old institution that the world depends upon for accurate measurements. NOAA scientists were ranked in the World’s Best Scientists List of 2023.”
Edward, thank you for the link. Apparently, the climate change denying Heritage Foundation has been the driving force behind the push to dismantle NOAA. This article delves further into what the loss would actually mean:
“NOAA establishes and disseminates data relevant to nearly every part of our lives, whether it’s protecting the satellites that keep our phones running or guaranteeing the safety of the fish we eat.
““Literally every single person in the US relies on NOAA every single day,” says Jeff Watters, the vice president of external affairs for the Ocean Conservancy.”
https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/what-would-happen-science-if-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administration-were-broken
There is something deeply cynical about policy-makers undermining the work of climate and environmental scientists in this way – it’s a step on from simply denying the science, and makes one wonder what other forms of truth-suppression are in the pipeline.
If the NHC was abolished or just made less influential hurricane fatalities could rise by maybe two or three orders of magnitude.
Jerry McManus and Rain, are you still out there? I miss your comments! Hope you are both well.
Kali, Rain still drops in from time to time. She gave us some on the ground weather intel from Oz before Christmas.
Jerry, I haven’t heard from in ages, and I recall he was anxious about his living situation; even pondering a move to Bali. Jerry, if you are reading this, I hope you are in one piece.
Guy McPherson might be right on not one human being alive on the planet in 2026. Could take until the end of the year. Mass deaths in the 100s of millions will be great for funeral related businesses. This is not investment advice. There will probably be good discounts if one goes along with being interred in a mass grave. 😉
Let me add a dash of excitement & jubilation.
https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/12/27/floridians-have-no-right-to-bodies-of-water-free-of-pollution-appeals-court-rules/
TR, from your article: “The Fifth District Court of Appeal ruled Thursday that although 83% of voters in Titusville approved a 2022 initiative establishing the right to clean water, the city in Brevard County couldn’t enact it because of a 2020 state law preventing local government from giving rights to bodies of water, plants, and animals.”
That same year: “White House Rule on Clean Water Act in 2020 Dramatically Deregulated Waters of the United States…
“Our analysis finds that a rule implemented by the Trump administration in 2020, called the Navigable Waters Protection Rule, removed protections for one-fourth of all wetlands and one-fifth of all streams in the United States. These changes deregulated 30 percent of watersheds that supply drinking water to household taps.”
https://www.resources.org/common-resources/white-house-rule-on-clean-water-act-in-2020-dramatically-deregulated-waters-of-the-united-states/
I don’t know the adjectives that best describe any actions by any Clever Apes that don’t demand clean water, air & land.
I think the issue is not just about clean water because this species is polluting everything they touch. Just another example of FAFO.
I’m so lazy that I don’t want to take the time to type: There are consequences for actions & in-actions. But I am clever using acronyms. 😉
Another excellent one from The Honest Sorcerer.
“Contrary to the facts on the ground, the West remains completely incapable to comprehend that they’ve irretrievably lost dominance over the rest of the world. The Rest of the World, on the other hand, is still reluctant to recognize that they are next on the chopping block as cheap energy and resources run out… Again, nothing personal. This is how the collapse of industrial civilization looks like, and it had to start somewhere. Again, denying that we are running out of affordable energy and resources — or that we are in overshoot — won’t make these things go away. Only global cooperation could prevent the worst outcomes, but in our present state of polarization, populist leaders popping up everywhere, and oligarchs becoming more reckless than ever, I doubt that we are looking at a peaceful transition into a localized, regenerative economy.”
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/what-a-year-2024-was
I always enjoy improving on another’s saying.
Those that can, do. Those that can’t or won’t, comment.
I’ve given up on stand-up comedy. I don’t have the time to entertain the masses due to being clever on the interwebs. 😉
An old timer said – “Don’t take yourself seriously. No one else does.” Or at least they shouldn’t. It’s wonderful how seriousness brought us to this fubar.