Very many thanks to this month’s kind sponsor, John Bee, who wishes me to exhort, “Go Steelers!”.
“Scientists say 2024 is ‘virtually certain’ to be the hottest since records began.
“…it is also almost guaranteed that 2024 will be the first year of temperatures more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. It is likely that it will be more than 1.55C above.”
“Some benchmarks for the 2-year running mean for the global surface temperature anomaly. First time passing:
“0.25°C – Jan. 23, 1945
0.50°C – Sept. 25, 1980
0.75°C – June 23, 1998
1.00°C – July 11, 2015
1.25°C – Mar. 3, 2017
1.50°C – Nov. 4, 2024“
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1854174943145267401
“Powerful before-and-after photos reveal “haunting” retreat of Arctic glaciers.
“A new set of photos by Swedish photographer Christian Åslund show just how far the glaciers have retreated over the past century… “Svalbard’s glaciers are now ghosts, haunting the Arctic,” says Dr Laura Meller, Project Lead of Greenpeace Nordic.”
https://www.discoverwildlife.com/environment/photos-arctic-glaciers-retreating
“HISTORIC WARMTH SIBERIA: Many stations rose >10C [50F] for the first time in November destroying their records.
“15C at at 55N latitude, 10C at 60N. Some examples of records include: 13.9 Mariinsk 56N, 12.0 Pervomajskoe 57N, 10.2 Stepanovka 58N.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1853781504737886573
“Scottish ski resort ‘fighting for survival’ amid climate crisis…
“A ski centre [Nevis Range, near Fort William] has pushed back its winter season until next year due to the effects of climate change, stating its decision isn’t about “cutting back” but about fighting for “survival”.”
“Mysterious bamboo cart discovered in melting glacier in Switzerland…
“The bamboo contraption consists of two large wheels crafted from bamboo poles, tied together with cords… The exposure of these items has become increasingly common as glaciers continue to recede due to rising global temperatures.”
https://archaeologymag.com/2024/11/bamboo-cart-discovered-in-melting-glacier-in-switzerland/
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN …WESTERN EUROPE. Mid summer temperatures with many records.
“SPAIN Tropical nights in the Basque Region FRANCE Temperatures again >26C [78.8F], Tmins >17C and more records: 22.0 Lezay, 21.7 Grand Pressigny.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1853865944977973428
“This is probably the most astonishing rainfall data I’ve ever had my hands on.
“Turis, Valencia, Spain, found itself in the absolute worst of last week’s extreme rain event. The town ended up with a mind-boggling 771.8 mm (30.4 inches) of rainfall over the course of 24 hours.”
https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1854186302033289361
“Spain deploys 15,000 police and troops to help flood relief – as vigilante protection groups patrol streets…
“Frustration over the government’s management of the flooding crisis has sparked public outcry and prompted some citizens to turn to self-policing, frustrated by what they see as a lacklustre official response.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/spain-floods-valencia-pedro-sanchez-b2641811.html
“Drought-stricken Axarquía reservoir temporarily receiving water from Malaga due to high levels of silt following storms.
“Fourteen of the municipalities that are partially supplied by the La Viñuela reservoir have gone back to receiving resources from the drinking water treatment plant at El Ataba in the city.”
“Firefighters battle to prevent wildfire in western Greece from reaching protected Strofilia Forest…
“The blaze is tearing through grasslands and reeds, raising serious concerns about its potential to reach the Strofilia Forest – a unique coastal ecosystem with rare umbrella-shaped pines.”
“MOROCCO HISTORIC HEAT WAVE – summer scorcher in November with an avalanche of historic records broken:
“38.2 Semara (Western Sahara), 37.1 Agadir Airport, 36.3 Tiznit, 36.1 Essaouira AP, 36.0 Tan Tan, 34.6 Guelmin, 33.9 Marrakech,33.5 Beni Mallal.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1854237313750233237
“Senegalese vegetables hit by major flooding…
“Over 16,000ha of farmland have been flooded in Senegal, according to official estimates, severely affecting the production of onions, okra, aubergines, bananas and tomatoes, as well as staples including corn and rice. The floods have displaced more than 56,000 people…”
https://www.fruitnet.com/eurofruit/senegalese-vegetables-hit-by-major-flooding/263456.article
“KENYA again – minimum temperature of 26.8C [80.2F] at Garissa and record of November highest minimum.
“November 2024 in just few days has broken several thousands records all over the world and more than the whole of November 2023. Never happened anything like this in world climatic history.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1853725012252852471
“Extreme hailstorms turn Saudi desert into rare winter wonderland, Saudi Arabia.
“Extreme hailstorms and heavy rain have transformed parts of Saudi Arabia’s desert landscape into a winter-like scene over the past couple of days, with snow-like hail accumulation primarily affecting regions such as Al-Jawf, the Northern Borders, Riyadh, and Mecca.”
“Migrant workers exposed to deadly 45C temperatures in Gulf – report…
“Equidem says that its research found that workers across the Gulf region were increasingly being forced to work in wet-bulb temperatures of more than 45C. “People [at the UN climate talks] are talking a lot about mitigation, but for wide swaths of the population the climate crisis is already here.””
“40C [104F] EMIRATES IN NOVEMBER FOR THE FIRST TIME…
“40.1 Swiehan EMIRATES HOTTEST NOVEMBER DAY IN HISTORY. Nearly every world country is breaking records.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1854246169159041402
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT EVENT IN IRAN – records smashed by 3C/6C+ margins: one of the most extreme events in world climatic history
“40.4C [104.7F] Shahada HOTTEST NOVEMBER DAY IN IRAN HISTORY; 37.6 Zabol, 36.6 Bam 1100m! 34.2 Saravan, 33.7 Tabas, 33.1 Nehbandan, 32.6 Zahedan, 31.6 Khor, 29.6 Ferdous.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1853829498988269697
“October 2024 in Pakistan had an average temperature of 26.07C [78.9F], +2.48C above normal and was the HOTTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD.
“Records of high maxes and high mins fell throughout the month, with relentless heat waves conditions which are continuing into November.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1854051681035842005
“Lahore: Record-high pollution sickens thousands in world’s most polluted city…
““Tens of thousands of patients suffering from respiratory diseases were treated at hospitals and clinics in a week,” said Salman Kazmi, vice president of the Pakistan Medical Association.”
“Mountains aren’t calling: Himachal temperature 3-4 degrees above normal, 97% less rainfall in October…
“This year, weather records show that the mercury in the Himalayan state has been hovering three to four degrees higher than the normal temperature. If soaring heat wasn’t enough, reduced precipitation has added to the miseries.”
“Hailstorm Devastates West Jaintia Hills District Of Meghalaya, Farmers Seek Government Aid…
“A severe hailstorm accompanied by heavy rain has left farmers in the West Jaintia Hills district of Meghalaya reeling, destroying their year-long efforts in an instant. The hailstorm, which occurred on Tuesday evening, damaged paddy crops on a large scale…”
“China’s Yangtze River experienced an unprecedented sudden shift from floods to droughts, with precipitation +20% from June~July and -30% from August~October.
“Water level in Wuhan plummeted 14.4m from highest point and is currently the second lowest in the same period since 1865.”
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/1854199441865187584
“The first snowfall of the season was recorded on Japan’s highest peak Mt. Fuji on Wednesday, the latest date since records began 130 years ago.
“The summit, 3,776 meters high and located between the prefectures of Shizuoka and Yamanashi, west of Tokyo, usually gets ifs first snow in early October, but extremely warm temperatures during the last few months have prevented snowfall.”
https://efe.com/en/other-news/2024-11-06/iconic-mt-fuji/
“Typhoon Yinxing Approaches the Philippines as a Category 4 Storm…
“The storm had maximum sustained winds of about 138 miles per hour on Thursday, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center said in an advisory. It was about 71 miles east of the northern Philippines on Thursday morning…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/world/asia/philipines-typhoon-yinxing.html
“THAILAND NEVER ENDING RECORD HEAT – it’s officially “winter” in Thailand but stifling hot and humid heat perists 24/7.
“28.5 [83.3F] minimum at Laem Chabang, Hottest November night on records again. It’s its 5th consecutive minimum >28C; before 2024 it had recorded 0 in November.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1854399873484808462
“Floods, landslides as heavy rain and strong winds lash West Java.
“Videos of the flooding in West Java have also circulated on social media, with some residents saying the floodwater reached a depth of up to 2 meters in Bandung regency.”
“Heatwave sweeps across large parts of Australia as bushfire threatens Queensland border town…
“On Tuesday more than 500 people were forced to flee Dirranbandi, six hours west of Brisbane, as two fast-moving grassfires threatened the township on Tuesday night.”
“Tarija Mayor’s Office declares emergency due to rain and flooding in several areas of the city [Bolivia]…
“The mayor of Tarija, Johnny Torres, has declared a state of emergency through Decree 093, due to the heavy rainfall that affected the city, causing flooding and submersion of homes, streets and other infrastructure.”
“More than 420,000 children affected by record drought in Amazon: UN…
“The record-breaking drought, ongoing since last year, is taking a toll on Indigenous and other communities in Brazil, Colombia and Peru reliant on boat connections, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) said…”
“Colombia’s Petro Says Bogotá Faces ‘Structural’ Water Shortage…
“The Chingaza system, which includes the Chuza reservoir and is where the capital usually gets most of its water, is close to 52% of its capacity, well below a 70% goal set for the end of October.”
“In pictures: Bogotá was left under water due to torrential rains that brought mobility to a standstill [Oh, the irony]…
“For his part, President Gustavo Petro expressed his concern about the recent floods in Bogotá and stressed the need to implement infrastructure to take advantage of rainwater in the city. “These rains in Bogotá should be collected in infrastructure to save drinking water.”
“CARIBBEAN RECORD HEAT – records all over from Mexico to Guyana.
“NOVEMBER RECORDS: 38.6 [101.5F] Monclova MEXICO; 33.8 Vigie ST LUCIA all time record tied; TMIN 28.0 SABA HOTTEST NOV. NIGHT EVER; FRENCH GUIANA: 38.4 Grand Santi NOVEMBER TERRITORIAL RECORD, 38.2 Maripasoula all time high.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1853888297178984453
“A rare November hurricane is expected to make landfall in the southern US this weekend, according to meteorologists.
“Tropical Storm Rafael intensified into a Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday, making landfall in western Cuba as it approached the Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).”
“Thousands ordered to evacuate as ‘dangerously fast’ wildfire burns near Los Angeles…
“Multiple large homes were destroyed as the fire tore through neighbourhoods, blanketing a huge area in thick smoke. Fierce gusts up to 80 miles p/h (130 kilometres) were fuelling flames that were scorching through farmland.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2024/11/07/california-wildfire-thousands-evacuate-mountain-fire/
“HISTORIC HEAT IN USA – hundreds of records from North to South. 93F [33.9F] Burnside HOTTEST NOVEMBER DAY IN LOUISIANA HISTORY.
“85 Patuxent River MD; 84 Teterboro NJ; 81 Rochester, 80 Concord NH.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1854335660959625557
“Flash flooding kills five in Missouri, including two poll workers…
“Up to 8 inches (20 centimetres) of rain fell over two days in parts of Missouri, leading to widespread flooding and dozens of water rescues. It was part of a storm system that also spawned tornadoes in Oklahoma and Arkansas.”
“New York’s Freak ‘Flash Drought’ Will Become Less Freakish…
““flash drought” …joins “zombie fire,” “firenado” and “thundersnow” in the growing lexicon of freak weather events that normal, non-meteorologist people are having to learn as the climate grows hotter and more chaotic.”
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN MAINE – nearly all stations destroyed their monthly records. The State record was broken on day 1st with 78F and re-broken today with 79F [26.1C].
“The summer warmth spreads to Canada with dozens records of November warmest night plus 23.0C Sydney NS max. record.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1854338785372217387
“Why is it 80 degrees in November? Boston smashes temperature record amid unusual weather.
“What is happening with the weather in Massachusetts? First it was the drought. Then came the wildfires. And now, we are smashing temperature records. In fact, we have set a new record high in each of the last three weeks.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/why-so-warm-boston-weather-temperature-records/
“‘A wrecking ball’: experts warn Trump’s win sets back global climate action…
“Trump’s return to the White House is widely expected to result in the US, yet again, exiting the Paris climate agreement and may even remove American involvement in the underpinning United Nations framework to deal with the climate crisis.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/06/trump-climate-change-environment-threat
“Von der Leyen’s Cop29 absence sends ‘fatal signal’, say watchers…
“The European Commission confirmed on Tuesday that its president would not attend… Also skipping the “world leaders’ climate action summit” are France’s Emmanuel Macron and the outgoing US president, Joe Biden… The leaders of Brazil, China, South Africa, Japan and Australia are expected to miss the talks as well.”
“Atmospheric methane removal: A promising but challenging climate solution…
“Methane is short-lived in the atmosphere, with CH4 molecules breaking down in seven to 12 years, against the 100 or more years it takes CO2 to break down. So scientists are investigating geoengineering technologies that might expedite this methane breakdown and help achieve a cooler world.”
“Can geoengineering save the Doomsday Glacier [Thwaites, Antarctica]?
“Among the proposed geoengineering strategies are large-scale interventions, such as constructing submarine curtains to block warm tidal currents from reaching glacier ice.”
https://www.earth.com/news/can-geoengineering-save-the-doomsday-glacier/
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
I think your work is great. Thanks for doing it. One question that often occurs to me and might be revealed by your areas of surveying is the annual production of primary food sources. when will the combination of climate change and fossil fuel decline create the conditions where there is a decline in the annual production of basic food supplies globally? Just a question I am curious about.
Hi Donn. Welcome to the site and thank you for the kind compliment. I’ve posted the link to a good summary of global grain production below.
Energy-constraints will be having an impact already but it is hard to discern their signal clearly. Climate change is very clearly having an impact – from the article, “Extreme weather, from drought to flooding… has impacted grain trading, with several key production areas in the Northern Hemisphere having been recently affected.” Here in the UK, for example, we have just had the second worst harvest on record after two incredibly soggy years.
However, overall, grain stores and production in less affected areas can still make up for these localised shortfalls. Ancillary crops like avocado, cocoa, coffee, grapes for wine, bananas and citrus are the ones really struggling.
https://www.world-grain.com/articles/20624-global-grain-trade-review
Olives should have been on that list.
“The scarcity of extra virgin olive oil has led to record-breaking prices. Earlier this year, the price of a litre surged to £14, and industry experts predict this could rise to £16 by May… This surge comes as global production reaches a ten-year low, with severe weather events and agricultural challenges disrupting harvests in major olive oil-producing regions.”
https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/756590779/olive-oil-prices-surge-amid-global-production-decline
People don’t realize just how much abundance we have. Beyond a extremely catastrophic situation, grain reserves will keep us afloat. Though our food will become more and more expensive.
Agreed. His work is phenomenal.
Thank you, Regan. ♥
Rafael isn’t going to impact the USA but what’s coming behind in a week or so might hit Florida again, and there is just time, given the warmth of the waters and the medium term convective patterns, for one more in December. It looks like El Nino is more likely than La Nina or neutral next year so 2025 Atlantic hurricane season might be a bit calmer, but probably lots of drought and wildfire headlines; and as we’ve seen it only takes one slow moving tropical storm or rapidly intensifying hurricane to hit in the right place and we see record damages. Personally I’ve thought since first becoming aware of the Limits to Growth report that 2025 geopolitics and global economy would be more “interesting” than we’d previously seen and, although the main disruptive factor I foresaw has changed a few times, I haven’t changed my mind about timing.
George, last I read there was a 60% change of a La Nina forming, right about now really, and persisting until March 2025 at the outside, but I haven’t seen any El Nino predictions for 2025 yet.
From a purely analytical standpoint, I would prefer there not to be one, so that we can get a clearer idea of the extent to which warming is ramping up now.
Awwww. So many leaders skipping COP29. The prior 28 have accomplished so much that this is sad news.
Panopticon might need to put a sub headline over the last few posts every day: Humor Section. (Just in case newbies don’t get it.) 🤪
Cassandra, glad you brought it up, not me. My take is they did actually accomplish what was intended, like the PICC…as Professor Guy McPherson has repeatedly pointed out..set up to fail. Maybe the could put a positive news bulletin to read…On track to reach agreements. That should put Joe Six pack riding in his Ford Pickup without any worry.
Now with the new administration we need not worry about such trivial matters.
“I have studied the IPCC for 15 years and think …political factors are often overlooked. For instance, though the reports are written by scientists, governments play an integral role throughout the process.
“The IPCC is after all an intergovernmental body – it’s governments that decide to produce the reports and give the final approval, not scientists.”
https://theconversation.com/inside-the-political-struggle-at-the-ipcc-that-will-determine-the-next-six-years-of-climate-science-235608
US support was probably critical to IPCC’s establishment. And why did the US government support it? Assistant Undersecretary of State Bill Nitze wrote to me a few years later saying that our group’s activities played a significant role. Among other motivations, the US government saw the creation of the IPCC as a way to prevent the activism stimulated by my colleagues and me from controlling the policy agenda.
I suspect that the Reagan Administration believed that, in contrast to our group, most scientists were not activists, and would take years to reach any conclusion on the magnitude of the threat. Even if they did, they probably would fail to express it in plain English.
https://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/11/01/ipcc_beginnings/
Thank you, Vince, for that background on the rather cynical origins of the organisation.
I was thinking that if the AMOC collapses, then that ski area in Scotland would have plenty of cold and snow. 🤔
There are always winners and losers. ⛷️
I’m all in for more snow! ❄️ ☃️
Plenty of cold and snow but alas not much in the way of food production and functioning infrastructure, Jpf.
It might look pretty, though, for anyone still around to see it. I flew from Glasgow back to Islay after the “Beast from the East” in 2018, and it was just stunning looking northwards at the endless snow-clad peaks stretching off towards the horizon.
I believe our intrepid host has chosen to call his work “Climate and (Capitalist) economy” because the two are inextricably linked.
In the article below, they point out the fact that natural gas, which pundits and industry were calling the “bridge fuel” to our impossible goal of “clean energy production” (something that occurs nowhere in the known universe, but is accepted as a goal by all those college grads who couldn’t figure out that they were amassing more debt to earn a BA than said document would ever enable them to pay back … ie by those claiming they “Listen to the science” (but only the cherry picked science that supports their clean/green energy scenarios)).
But it is, as per the referenced link, a bridge to nowhere … as the goal it purports is an impossibility. What it is a bridge to is taxpayer guaranteed Corporate Profits. That is why every single green solution proposed and implemented makes the climate’s derangement worse: green energy scenarios throw more gasoline onto the bonfire of the vanities raging across the globe. How could it be otherwise? Capitalism mandates profits, and not only allows, but encourages the foisting of its externalities onto the public.
As the COP (Capitalism’s Outsized Predation) attendees prepare to gather for next week’s annual sideshow, there is not a word uttered as to this intractable legality, nevermind to the fact that the rise in CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere correlates almost precisely with the rise in the number of billionaires.
Capital, like war and monarchies, exists only for itself. Like its bedfellows, it does a good job of pretending otherwise, but it is for the preservation and growth of Capital that Corporate enterprises were founded; if that doesn’t change, how can anything else?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/study-uncovers-major-problem-fuel-113055244.html
Thank you for that link, Rob.
It has always seemed a common sense proposition to me that extracting methane from the earth, liquifying it by cooling it to -161C, and then transporting it great distances by diesel-powered ships was going to be significantly less green than advertised.
Re COP29 – nice acronym, btw – even the MSM’s expectations are muted:
“Last year’s COP28 summit in Dubai ended with countries agreeing for the first time to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.”
“Since then, however, both fossil fuel use and export sales have continued to rise globally, while new areas have been approved for oil and gas production in countries like Azerbaijan, the United States, Namibia, and Guyana… negotiators said COP29 was unlikely to deliver timelines or stronger language on fossil fuels…”
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/cop29-what-are-key-issues-un-climate-summit-baku-2024-11-07/
I’m loving the last paragraph I. The article:
“ Luckily, eco-friendly energy sources like solar and wind are seeing record growth, even as oil and gas production is expanding. As the clean energy transition accelerates, pollution will inevitably go down, making the planet healthier for humans and animals alike.”
Damn! We are sooo lucky! 🙄
Thanx jpg! I wanted to highlight that puffery, but felt my comment was getting a bit long-winded, so decided not to. How do they come up with this stuff!?
“Listen to the science” (but only the cherry picked science that supports their clean/green energy scenarios))
Ah so you’ve met my father who begs me to have a child.
Nat, that must be tough. I imagine he is not on board with the “doomer” narrative.
Divide & Rule continues to work for the PTBs, in Western countries anyway. ‘Manufacturing Consent’ as Noam Chomsky wrote. Have the masses blame each other with tempers running high. No collective consciousness of who and what determines ‘policy’, so it must be the immigrants, or the Arabs, or the x, y and z groups …
Thats when I stopped voting, my usual vote went to the usual suspect of a perceived “lesser of evils” etc.. when one time, I strongly disagreed with a piece of recent legislation, was so furious, muttered to myself in the ballot box, I will not give my consent to this anymore.