23 Comments

1. 

   Martin on August 20, 2024 at 1:15 pm

   I really don’t want to be first-past-the-post here so many times – I’m an anti-socialer, and I regard on-lining as a temporary distraction, but. c’mon, sometimes the stories are such amplifications of non-mainstream positions my brain has long arrived at.

   The horrific slaughter of Gezzans by the US/Europe -armed nuclear power ethno-war state is conducted over SOON-TO-BE-UNINHABITABLE land already long subject to unrelenting terror attack from the ethnostate. Yes, the figure of civilian victims will eventually to be revealed as orders-of-mag dramatically greater than the “official” news numbers, but so to are all the soldier deaths from the ethnostate in service of what will soon be subsumed by uninhabitability. There will be no “Free Palestine” to slogan around, nor will there be a living Zion for the oppressors.

   Pointing out the pointlessness of human folly is, of course, pointless in itself, but that’s what the human brain is now primed to do, and I’m happy to do so, unless others want to get up a little earlier from their righteous slumbers and begin the beguine here.

   • 

     Panopticon on August 20, 2024 at 3:15 pm

     “The horrific slaughter of Gezzans by the US/Europe -armed nuclear power ethno-war state is conducted over SOON-TO-BE-UNINHABITABLE land.”

     Not to diminish in any way the suffering of those living the nightmare of Gaza or Sudan but the bigger picture is, as you say, that these parts of the world are not going to be worth fighting over pretty soon.

     Re timing, I thought it was interesting that Jeff Masters is confident in predicting that climate change will cause “significant economic and political disruption” in the US within the next 15 years. Clearly nations in the Middle East and Africa are more immediately vulnerable.

     Jeff’s recommendation: “I suggest that you make the most of the current “calm before the storm” and prepare for the chaotic times ahead.”

     • 

       Martin on August 20, 2024 at 8:58 pm

       Yeah, I read the Jeff Masters piece – or half-read it, since this kind of ersatz big-picturing for the masses has gotten tedious as of late:

       “We overvalue the pursuit of material wealth and we worship billionaires but undervalue growing more connected to our spiritual selves and acting to preserve and appreciate the natural systems that sustain us. Making yourself more peaceful and loving through quiet spiritual pursuits and time spent in nature will help counteract the anxiety and fear sparked by the climate crisis.”

       Bullshit life advice we don’t need after all the earnest and correct doom science. We lived through complete happenstance in the remains of the natural world when we we young, and now, thanks to our collective efforts, it’s being broken on the way to complete destruction. What’s our goddam inner spiritual self supposed to say to that? “Oh, look, a butterfly, how harmonious are our spirits in harmony with nature” and now back to the Great Die-Off in the Global South?
       How do you “prepare” for a 2×4 across your head? Answer: you don’t. You don’t prepare at all.

   • 

     Kali on August 20, 2024 at 7:28 pm

     I see no problem if you are first past the post, Martin. I think it’s important to have some fun every day, and pointing out examples of human folly qualifies, IMHO. If we can’t let off some steam here I think some of us might explode.

2. 

   zip on August 20, 2024 at 2:51 pm

   Hello Pan…

   My comment is a bit ‘out of climate step’ but I don’t want to withhold it from you as I have little time over the next few days. It’s about the economic limits of the fossil era…. and we are going to see that 🙂 well at least you will!…. Watkins is an interesting man to follow

   Here in summary
   Iran is at a crucial point regarding the South Pars gas field, the world’s largest gas reservoir, in which the country is investing $70 billion to counter declining production. This gas field is essential for Iran as it accounts for almost 80% of the country’s total gas production and 40% of its oil production through the Star gas condensate refinery. Without these investments, Iran’s oil production risks falling by 40%, which would increase petrochemical costs by $12 billion annually.
   Production problems at South Pars are caused by outdated technology, geopolitical tensions with Qatar, and inefficiencies of local and Chinese contractors. Since the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018, Iran has struggled to manage its production decline, partly because Chinese and Russian companies lack advanced technology. Despite attempts to use $20 billion of domestic investment to increase field pressure by building platforms and drilling new wells, little progress has been made.
   Declining field pressure, which is estimated to reduce gas production by 25% over the next 10 years, poses a major challenge. Iran is now trying to cooperate with Qatar to optimise the exploitation of the joint gas reservoir, especially as Qatar dramatically increases its production from the North Dome field. However, geopolitical tensions and increasing US influence on Qatar make this cooperation complex. This situation is part of the wider competition between the West and China over LNG, an energy source whose global demand is expected to rise sharply by 2040.

   https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/The-Worlds-Biggest-Gas-Reservoir-Is-At-A-Tipping-Point.html

   • 

     Panopticon on August 20, 2024 at 4:03 pm

     Thank you, Zip – a very interesting read. It’s not just Gail Tverberg’s affordability limits that can strand what appear to be viable fossil fuels in the ground; we are seeing that geopolitical friction can do that, too. The overall result is a global economy running less and less efficiently.

     In similar vein:

     “Mongolia has not included the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline connecting Russia and China in its action programme through 2028, a decision interpreted by many as a shelving of the controversial project that could have provided Moscow with a financial lifeline as it grapples with sanctions and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

     “The landlocked country would cover much of the proposed route for the 2,594km pipeline, necessitating its involvement in construction and transmission fee negotiations.

     “Analysts attributed the hiatus to pricing disagreements between Beijing and Moscow as well as geopolitical factors, with concerns over secondary sanctions from Western countries levied against those seen as aiding Russia’s military in Ukraine.

     “We are entering a long pause, where Moscow no longer believes it can get the deal it wishes from Beijing and will probably park the project until better times,” said Munkhnaran Bayarlkhagva, a former official at the National Security Council of Mongolia.”

     https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3275022/future-murky-russia-china-pipeline-mongolia-omits-project-long-term-plan

3. 

   Reganp52 on August 20, 2024 at 3:13 pm

   Collapse and economy

   • 

     Panopticon on August 20, 2024 at 5:59 pm

     Plenty will disagree but I see the latter as, by its nature, destined to suffer the former.

4. 

   VPK on August 20, 2024 at 3:43 pm

   So, remember way, way back in the late 1980s doing a stint as a Green Peace volunteer canvassing for membership door to door and in their office base one leader there stated “Global Warming would eventually be the leading issue that needs to be dealt with because of all the connecting aspects “.
   On one knock on the door and an older woman flat out told me, “It’s too LATE!”; and close the door sharply ; not realizing then how right she was….
   So, at this stage and seeing what is unfolding is really no surprise.

   Charles Hugh Smith recently posted another article about revolution which partly read

   In today’s America, opting out often takes the form of homesteading, a phrase that encompasses a wide range of personal decisions and lifestyle options. A recent article on the remarkable level of interest in homesteading profiles one homesteader who’s assembled an impressive 1 million followers on YouTube:

   Well, I’m a bit skeptical regarding that movement, especially seeing the chaotic weather events of late… Doubt those million viewers will undertake or have the skills and luck to see it through…not much Permaculture going to endure with climate change, I’m afraid.
   Stock up on tuna cans

   • 

     Panopticon on August 20, 2024 at 4:13 pm

     My half-baked plan (please forgive the terrible pun) was to focus on growing potatoes, as they are such a good dietary all-rounder and historically have done well on Islay (the potato famine era aside), but we are already in an era where that is becoming less straightforward:

     “Extreme weather events are making it increasingly difficult for farmers to harvest one of Scotland’s key crops…

     “The weather is becoming more unpredictable and unfortunately the extremes are more extreme than we’ve ever been used to in the past,” said Alistair Melrose, a potato farmer in Perth.”

     https://news.stv.tv/north/how-extreme-weather-events-are-impacting-one-of-scotlands-key-crops

     • 

       VPK on August 20, 2024 at 4:45 pm

       Recall reading about potatoes and when a blight appears the agribusiness corporations rushed to the Andes to gleam varieties that have preserved by the locale indigenous communities. Of course, the variety that is resistant will be taken from their folk heritage without any regard to compensate the locales for their genetic bank (failing to patent, no doubt).
       When all is done, if there are any survivors, wish these isolated are those left standing if living isn’t too unbearable

   • 

     TR on August 20, 2024 at 10:44 pm

     “It’s too LATE!” You go girl!
     8 billion need to have this door slammed in their faces.

     This old fool had an idea of what was going to happen in 1964.

5. 

   Jerry McManus on August 20, 2024 at 4:19 pm

   Speaking of chaos…
   I was just this very moment being hit in the head with a hammer, um hold on, I meant to say a memory, a paper I skimmed years ago. Just one more in a long list of “oh, that’s interesting” climate papers that speculated about some arcane aspect of the approaching apocalypse.

   As I recall, they were discussing a peculiar behavior of complex systems, especially ecosystems, that were undergoing rapid systemic change. There is a tendency for the system to start behaving chaotically before it finally kicks the bucket with a sudden state change and reaches a new equilibrium.

   Terrifying to think that we will be fortunate indeed if this chaos only(!) gets worse, and is not some sort of precursor to total hell on Earth.

   • 

     Panopticon on August 20, 2024 at 4:51 pm

     “There is a tendency for the system to start behaving chaotically before it finally kicks the bucket.”

     Jerry, the Uni of Southampton explains it thus:

     “When a system approaches a tipping point it may exhibit certain signs of instability that could potentially be used as early warning signals. Two main theoretical phenomena that describe this effect are critical slowing down and flickering.

     “Critical slowing down is based on the generic mechanism that in the vicinity of a bifurcation or tipping point, the rate at which a system recovers from small perturbation becomes very slow. In contrast, flickering refers to a system that switches back and forth between alternative states in response to relatively large impacts.”

     I guess we are already seeing lots of sub-systems of the climate that are being repeatedly knocked out of whack and struggling to return to equilibrium. This paper identified nine global “core” tipping elements of the overall system (and suggests there are several more). It only takes one and we are in trouble:

     https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950

     • 

       Kali on August 20, 2024 at 7:18 pm

       “Global peak water occurs at ~2°C but committed eventual loss is expected at lower temperatures.”
       I think we are about there. GLOBAL PEAK WATER. 😱

6. 

   Heather B on August 20, 2024 at 5:35 pm

   What has been overlooked is how much damage is being done to the infrastructure. Everyday you can google or go on YouTube and find tons of videos on bridge collapses, roads, landslides, sewer systems and water main breaks. Also dam collapses its blows my mind as bad as these flood events are getting now that the internet functions at all. Our ferry system is close to becoming defunct here in the Seattle area. Our internet was out for 3 days last week due to vandalism and neighbors have a meltdown over the internet wait til the water doesn’t come then what?

   • 

     Panopticon on August 20, 2024 at 6:08 pm

     Heather, we have had endless problems with the ferries here, too. The uncertainty over scheduling has had a knock-on effect on the tourist industry because people, understandably, don’t want to commit to booking accommodation when they don’t know if they’ll be able to get here or not.

     Our amped up hydrological cycle is certainly picking away at infrastructure, just as financial/energy constraints really start to erode our ability to maintain it. Poor China seems to have been hit particularly hard in that regard of late…

     I know we’ve had dams burst in Brazil, Kenya and Russia fairly recently… Derna in Libya last year was the sort of mega-disaster we are going to see more of, unfortunately.

   • 

     VPK on August 20, 2024 at 6:32 pm

     Never mind much was constructed decades ago and is in a state of decline and disrepair.
     Deadly storms batter the Northeast and cause severe flash flooding, submerging cars and prompting water rescues
     Parts of Connecticut and Suffolk County, New York, experienced historic rain, reaching the threshold of 1,000-year rainfall event.
     …Meanwhile, Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont on Sunday called the deluge a “historic storm in some areas” of the state, noting urban search-and-rescue teams helped evacuate at least 100 people.

     On Monday he declared a state of emergency in response to “significant flooding” that “has caused extensive structural damage to roadways.” He said more than two dozen roads will be closed for an extended period and urged locals to avoid driving through flooded roads.
     ….In New York City, video on social media showed water pouring down from the ceiling of the popular tourist destination Chelsea Market.
     ….The deluge has also affected transit. The Metro-North Railroad suspended the Waterbury Branch service in both directions early Monday because of a mudslide near Seymour. Amtrak also suspended rail traffic Sunday night between New York and Philadelphia because of flooding.

     https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/intense-storms-batter-northeast-cause-severe-flash-flooding-submerging-rcna167112

     Hope all the private damns hold up too..

7. 

   Kali on August 20, 2024 at 7:24 pm

   The “I’ve canceled my holiday” one. He says “For some people, this really is a matter of life and death.” Apparently, he thinks it won’t be a matter of life and for himself at some point.

   • 

     TR on August 20, 2024 at 9:48 pm

     Most monkey minds know about death & they think it only happens to others.

8. 

   TR on August 20, 2024 at 10:30 pm

   Convicted felon Trump is giving a speech to law enforcement in Michigan,WTF!
   This is baboon brain bullshit! I’m in awe of America’s stupidity. One might be a fool to think that this species could/would do anything to miss out on NTHE, after this. My consolation is that all law enforcement will go extinct. Wait, pepper spray, tasers & guns will stop NTHE in it’s tracks.

   To the World,
   Americans are not immune to stupidity. The problem is that they are trying to perfect it. They are doing a good job up to this point.

9. 

   Rusty on August 20, 2024 at 11:32 pm

   “Assisted movement” for trees?
   …..what? Harharharhar

   Like a bandaid on an amputation done in the field with a rusty saw.

   • 

     Bobby on August 21, 2024 at 6:51 am

     Talking trees? And what would trees have to talk about ..apart from the consistency of squeal droppings…